Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] Report's Core View - The third round of price increase for coke has been recognized by the mainstream market due to the continuous rise in coking coal spot prices. However, as the downstream demand of steel mills enters the off - season and the molten iron output is expected to decline, the supply shortage in the coking coal spot market is expected to ease. The near - month contracts of coking coal and coke are seeing long - position reductions and price drops, while the far - month contracts are seeing short - position increases and price drops. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Related Contents Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1253.0, down 2.45% compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1729.0, down 2.40% compared to the opening of the day session. In the night session yesterday, Jm2601 closed at 1259.0, up 0.48% compared to the day - session close; the J2601 contract closed at 1734.0, up 0.29% compared to the day - session close [1] Important News - The central bank announced that on November 5th, it conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1] - On November 4th, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke procurement price for the third time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on November 5th, 2025 [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the delivery quality standards for coking coal and implement the new rules for newly listed contracts after the rule release. This adjustment includes modifying the scope and premium/discount of standard and substitute products for strength indicators, as well as the premium/discount for the substitute product scope of sulfur content indicators [1] Market Logic - The continuous rise in coking coal spot prices has led to cost - driven recognition of the third round of coke price increases in the mainstream market. Today's coking coal auction prices remain relatively strong. But with the downstream demand of steel mills entering the off - season and the expected decline in molten iron output, the supply shortage in the coking coal spot market is expected to ease. The near - month contracts of coking coal and coke are seeing long - position reductions and price drops, while the far - month contracts are seeing short - position increases and price drops [1] Trading Strategy - As coking coal prices start to decline significantly, coking coal and coke are considered bearish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the available inventory days of downstream coking and steel enterprises. After the end of environmental protection production restrictions, there may be a phased replenishment demand. Short positions this week can take profits at low prices to avoid the impact of supply - demand mismatches on the market caused by the concentrated resumption of production of steel mills next week [1]

Group 1 - The futures market has listed a total of 148 futures and options products, with trading times organized for over a hundred products [3][5][12] - Specific trading times for various futures and options products are provided, including day and night sessions [6][7][8] - Certain products, marked as special varieties, require separate trading permissions to participate, such as soybean oil, PTA, and stock index futures [12] Group 2 - The introduction of foreign traders to palm oil options occurred on June 18, 2021, and to soybean options on December 26, 2022 [5] - Trading hours for different exchanges are detailed, including the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [6][7] - The document emphasizes the need for traders to understand the specific requirements for trading special products [11][12]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on cotton and cotton yarn in the agricultural products industry, dated November 4, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,535, down 65; CF05 at 13,555, down 60; CF09 at 13,725, down 55; CY01 at 19,795, down 125; CY05 at 19,845, down 75; CY09 at 20,085, unchanged [2] - Trading volume and open interest of each contract had different changes, e.g., CF01 trading volume decreased by 3,913 and open interest decreased by 6,089 [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 19; Cot A was 76.85 cents/pound; FC Index:M: arrival price was 75.69, up 0.09; etc [2] Price Spreads - Cotton and cotton yarn had various spreads, such as cotton 1 - 5 month spread at -20, down 5; 5 - 9 month spread at -170, down 5; etc [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 4, 2025, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous day, with expected short - term upward fluctuations [4] - This year's cotton yield per mu in Shaya County was generally 380 - 450 kg/mu, a decrease of 30 - 70 kg/mu compared to last year, possibly due to improper fertilization and low September temperatures [4] - As of October 28, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas decreased significantly, and the quality indicators of US cotton declined [4] Trading Logic - In November, with new cotton on the market, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Supply is expected to increase but the increase may be less than previously thought. Demand enters the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate with limited upside and downside. Sino - US trade policies may have a large impact [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. Close previous long positions [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although market confidence improved last week, downstream demand did not improve significantly. Cotton has large hedging pressure. Most cotton yarn prices were stable, with only a few varieties selling well. Follow downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and fabric mills purchase raw materials as needed. Downstream customers place mainly rigid orders and are cautious [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 3, 2025, for example, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 260, down 10%; CF601P13000.CZC closed at 25, down 34.2% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly. Implied volatilities of different options varied, e.g., 7.5% for CF601 - C - 13400 [11] Option Strategies - Hold off on options [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts of 1% tariff cotton price spreads, cotton basis for different months, cotton yarn - cotton spreads, and cotton inter - monthly spreads [15][18][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly with traders' negotiations and few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost side, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center is expected to weaken in the near term. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and the import supply is abundant this month. The long - term supply surplus expectation persists, putting pressure on the market sentiment. Attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the rebound of the disk, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. Trades were mainly between traders, with individual polyester factories making inquiries. There were transactions at different basis levels for different delivery times. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 73. The inventory of PTA factories decreased by 0.04 days to 4.03 days, and the 20 - day moving average is upward with the closing price above it. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. In the short term, prices are expected to follow the cost side to fluctuate [5][6]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was average. The morning session saw a weak and volatile disk, and the spot was traded at a premium of 74 - 78 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Around noon, the disk dropped rapidly, and the spot was traded at a low of below 4040 yuan/ton. The afternoon market was mainly in a low - level adjustment. The external market price of ethylene glycol also weakened. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.7 tons to 49.8 tons, and the 20 - day moving average is downward with the closing price below it. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and the import supply this month is abundant. The long - term supply surplus expectation persists [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, including changes in production capacity, load, and supply - demand gap in different months [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, including changes in production capacity, load, and supply - demand difference in different months [12]. 3.5. Price - There are multiple price - related charts, including bottle - chip spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, and inventory analysis of related products from 2020 - 2025 [14][28][31][35][38][40] - **Bottle - Chip**: It includes the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of PET bottle - chips [14][17][21][22] - **PTA**: It involves the basis, inter - month spread, and processing fee of PTA [28][24][60] - **MEG**: It includes the inter - month spread, basis, and profit of MEG [31][35][61] - **Polyester Products**: It shows the production profit of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [64][65][67] - **Upstream and Downstream of Polyester**: It presents the operating rates of the upstream (PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) of the polyester industry [51][55]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal (coking coal and coke) sector is "Oscillating with a Bearish Bias" [1] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that the coking coal and coke markets will oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Conditions - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1284.5, down 0.12% from the day - session opening; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1771.5, down 0.31% from the day - session opening. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1287.5, up 0.23% from the day - session close; J2601 closed at 1779.0, up 0.42% from the day - session close [1] Important News - The Ministry of Finance has newly established a Debt Management Department, responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc [1] - Shanxi Jianlong began to overhaul a 1080m³ blast furnace on November 1st, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.42 million tons. After that, it will overhaul a 1380m³ blast furnace. From November 1st to 5th, two rebar rolling lines were shut down, affecting daily output by about 0.7 million tons. After the bar production resumes, the plate output will decrease [1] - Heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency responses were launched in cities in Hebei such as Tangshan, Qian'an, etc. starting from 18:00 on November 3rd [1] Market Logic - Yesterday, the coking coal spot market had strong transactions. The supply of coking coal tightened, and traders were hoarding and reluctant to sell. For coke, the rapid rise in costs has promoted the third round of price increases, which are expected to be implemented soon. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production dropped significantly, but the tight supply of raw materials and the downstream's need to maintain production inventory support the strong prices of raw materials. However, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly yesterday, rising sharply at the opening and then回调. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the upper pressure on coking coal and coke remains at 1320, and they should be regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of a trader, He Yue, who overcame significant financial challenges to achieve success in futures trading, emphasizing that cognitive understanding is more important than technical skills in trading [1][4]. Group 1: Trading Journey - He Yue's trading career began in 2008, characterized by a cycle of gains and losses, leading to a debt of 1.5 million yuan due to short-term trading strategies [2]. - A pivotal moment occurred in 2018 when He Yue invested 200,000 yuan in palm oil futures, which eventually led to a significant profit that cleared his debts [2][3]. - Since 2019, He Yue adopted a trading strategy focused on "extreme varieties," selecting either deeply undervalued or significantly overvalued assets for investment [2][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - In early 2020, He Yue invested heavily in soybean meal futures at 2,850 yuan/ton, enduring a drop to 130,000 yuan but ultimately profiting by selling at 3,700 yuan/ton after holding for six months [3]. - He Yue successfully shorted tin futures in 2021 and identified a lucrative opportunity in BR rubber options in 2023, demonstrating his ability to capitalize on market trends [3]. - Looking ahead to 2024, He Yue plans to focus on stock index futures, believing in a long-term bullish trend supported by solid fundamentals and government policies [3]. Group 3: Key Components of Trading Success - He Yue emphasizes that trading success relies on three key components: cognitive ability, execution, and mental strength [4]. - Cognitive ability involves understanding macroeconomic policies and industry logic, which helps in making informed trading decisions [5]. - Execution requires a systematic approach to trading, where He Yue's strategy includes selecting extreme varieties, limiting positions to 30%, and adhering to stop-loss and take-profit levels based on fundamental analysis [6]. - Mental strength is crucial for maintaining confidence in one's trading system, especially during challenging market conditions [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. The supply side features a large number of new flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side enters a relatively off - season after the peak season, and previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. Meanwhile, future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton futures are 13,600, 13,615, and 13,780 respectively, with corresponding increases of 5, 10, and 25. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn futures are 19,920, 0, and 0 respectively, with corresponding increases of 45, - 19,920, and - 20,085. There are also data on trading volume, open interest, and their changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 14,859 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the price of Cot A is 76.45 cents/pound, up 77.40 cents/pound; the price of (FC Index):M: to - port price is 75.60 cents/pound, down 0.80 cents/pound. There are also prices and price changes of other spot products [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is - 15, down 5; between May and September is - 165, down 15; between September and January is 180, up 20. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spread between January and May is 19,920, up 19,965; between May and September is 0, up 165; between September and January is - 19,920, down - 20,130. There are also cross - variety spreads and internal - external spreads [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 3, 2025, the price of China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last Friday; the price of 2129B was 15,137 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The delivery price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 14,530 yuan/ton for 3128B, down 10 yuan/ton; 14,820 yuan/ton for 2129B, unchanged from last Friday. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton opened higher and then fluctuated downward on Friday, with the basis quote basically stable and the spot transaction price relatively stable [4]. - On November 2, 2025, the acquisition index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the acquisition index of hand - picked cotton was 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. In Aksu, the lint percentage of seed cotton purchased by some ginneries was 0.5% - 1.0% lower than last year, and the purchase price of high - lint - percentage seed cotton remained at about 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg [5]. - In September 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the peak season, with both the import volume and value increasing significantly compared to the previous month. The import value was 372.276 billion yen (equivalent to 2.524 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 7.52% and a month - on - month increase of 13.12%. The import volume was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13% and a month - on - month increase of 21.91%. From January to September, Japan's cumulative clothing import value was 2,685.447 billion yen (equivalent to 18.103 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, and the cumulative import volume was 713,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [5]. - As of October 27, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 33,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42%. Among them, bonded cotton was 3.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%; non - bonded cotton was 2,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. In terms of the origin of imported cotton, in the cotton inventory of Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, US cotton accounted for 26.64%, a year - on - year decrease of 20.87 percentage points; Brazilian cotton accounted for 23.38%, a year - on - year increase of 4.37 percentage points; Australian cotton accounted for 45.94%, a year - on - year increase of 14.29 percentage points; other countries and regions accounted for 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.21 percentage points. The net inbound volume was - 807.15 tons, with 1,154.15 tons out of storage and 347 tons into storage. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly, and cotton imports continued to recover in September and October, with an increase in US and Brazilian cotton arriving in Hong Kong, but the outbound speed accelerated, leading to a decline in storage capacity [6]. Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with a large number of new flowers on the market in November, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large number of new flowers on the market on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but the increase may be less than expected, and with average recent orders on the demand side but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. In addition, there may be trade negotiations between China and the US, and the Sino - US tariff agreement expires in November, so future Sino - US trade policies may have a significant impact on the market [7]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a fluctuating state, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although the macro - atmosphere improved slightly last week and market confidence recovered to some extent, the actual downstream demand did not improve significantly, and there was still significant hedging pressure on cotton. After some quotes of pure cotton yarn were tentatively raised, the market returned to calm, and most actual transaction prices changed little. Due to the lack of order support, only a few varieties had good sales, such as C40, high - count export varieties, and low - count compact - spun yarn. Most air - jet spun and combed yarns had relatively slow sales, and the market mainly consisted of small, urgent, and necessary orders. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the trend of Zhengzhou cotton. The current tax - included cash price of high - compact C32S produced in Jiangsu is 21,300 - 21,500 yuan/ton, subject to negotiation for actual orders [10]. - The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth remained weak, with insufficient trading atmosphere. The quantity and price of pure - cotton cloth in the spot market were weak, so fabric mills mostly purchased raw materials as needed. Downstream customers mainly placed necessary orders. With weak terminal demand, the operation space was reduced, and most customers adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards the fabric mills' dumping information. Even if the price was discounted, they were reluctant to stock up without orders [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 3, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,600, the closing price was 260, and the decline was 10.0%. For CF601P13000.CZC, the closing price was 25, and the decline was 34.2%. For CF601P12400.CZC, the closing price was 8, and the decline was 60.0%. There are also data on implied volatility, Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [12]. - **Volatility and Trading Suggestion**: The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 7.5%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.8%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 14.7%. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7135, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.7629. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [13][14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the chart of the internal - external market cotton price difference under 1% tariff, the charts of cotton basis for January, May, and September, the charts of the spread between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, CF9 - 1, and CF5 - 9 [15][19][20].

Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the SF main contract was 5526, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of -38. The trading volume was 118,520, with a daily change of -33,382, and the open interest was 163,466, with a daily change of -5,461 [3]. - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5794, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of -8. The trading volume was 161,410, with a daily change of -56,913, and the open interest was 350,214, with a daily change of -2,225 [3]. - The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5350, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 30. The spot price of 6517 silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -30 [3]. - The manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable, with the Australian lump at 39 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), South African semi - carbonate at 34.2 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), and Gabon lump at 39.8 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.1) [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - On November 3, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract rose 0.47%, and the SM main contract rose 0.38% [5]. - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable to weak on the 3rd, with some regions seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decline. Supply remained at a high level, and demand had a downward pressure due to potential environmental restrictions. The strategy was to short on rallies [5]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot was stable, and the silicomanganese spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 10 - yuan/ton decline. Supply pressure was high, and demand was affected by low profits and environmental production cuts. The strategy was also to short on rallies [5]. - Unilateral strategy: Short on rallies due to increased steel mill maintenance and high demand pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Group 3: Important Information - In September 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 2,287,959 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From Q1 to Q3 2025, the total exports were 20,763,797 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.25% [7]. - The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone in October 2025 was 50, in line with expectations and the previous value [7]. Group 4: Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5556 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 306 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5659 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 509 yuan/ton [14]. - The production cost of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5809 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 149 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5840 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 250 yuan/ton [17].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The current market exhibits significant structural differentiation, with clear trends across different sectors and distinct product attributes [2] Group 2: Key Bullish and Bearish Products - Bullish products include crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), which show steady increases in positions, reflecting recognition of energy transition and shipping recovery [3] - Bearish products include rubber (RU), which has seen a notable increase in short positions, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [3] Group 3: Position Changes and Capital Movements - In the energy and chemical sector, positions in crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) are rising, while rubber (RU) shows significant short position increases, suggesting a bearish outlook [4] - In the agricultural sector, palm oil (P) sees rising positions with active bullish capital involvement, while live hogs (LH) have a large position despite a bearish structure, indicating ongoing divergence [4] Group 4: Core Trading Logic and Opportunity Identification - For stock indices, small-cap stocks are favored, with the market state being "Long" for both the CSI 500 (IC) and CSI 1000 (IM) futures, supported by healthy technical indicators [5][6] - Iron ore (I) is marked as "Great-Long-Now," indicating strong bullish signals within the black series [6] - Opportunities include arbitrage strategies between rebar (RB) and hot-rolled coil (HC), or a long position in iron ore [5][6] Group 5: Key Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend strategies favoring IC, IM, I, P, and SC due to strong curve structures and fundamental support [8] - Trend strategies for RU, LH, and M are recommended as bearish due to weak supply-demand dynamics [8] - Arbitrage strategies between palm oil (P) and soybean meal (M) are suggested, capitalizing on the strength of oils over feeds [8] Group 6: Key Products to Monitor - Focus on the performance of small-cap stocks (IC/IM) and the supply dynamics of iron ore (I) [13] - Monitor the crude oil supply-demand balance (SC/LU) and the continuation of the bearish trend in rubber (RU) [13] - Keep an eye on palm oil (P) for ongoing biodiesel demand and the progress of hog destocking (LH) [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. It's recommended to wait and see. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage and is currently at the end of the trend. It's also recommended to wait and see [7][30] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and is currently at the end of the trend - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the gold price showed a "first decline then rise" trend. It was affected by factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking, and the rumor of the Philippine central bank's selling in the early stage, and then stabilized and rebounded supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut, technical support, and the continuous gold purchase of the Chinese central bank. In the long - term, the gold - buying trend of global central banks and the risk - aversion demand under the background of de - dollarization are the core drivers, but in the short - term, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy path and market sentiment fluctuations need to be concerned - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the upper resistance at 960 - 965 and the lower support at 920 - 925. It was recommended to wait and see - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai gold main contract 2512 may fluctuate between 904 - 920 yuan/gram in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 930 - 940 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 904 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents multiple data charts including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage and is currently at the end of the trend - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "decline and then stabilization" trend. It was affected by factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the improvement of London market liquidity, and profit - taking in the early stage, and then gradually recovered supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut, continuous reduction of COMEX inventory, and the effectiveness of technical support. The closing price at the end of the week returned to 11,400 yuan/ton (the same as the beginning of the week). In the long - term, the Fed's policy path, the recovery of industrial demand, and the change of global inventory structure need to be concerned - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver main contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the upper resistance at 11,785 - 12,085 and the lower support at 10,915 - 11,285. It was recommended to wait and see - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver main contract 2512 may fluctuate between 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term, with the upper resistance level at 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 11,000 - 11,200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [34][35] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents multiple data charts including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][47][49]