Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May[2] - The production index is at 51.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value of 50.7%[2] - The new orders index stands at 50.2%, rising from 49.8%[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest at 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6%[4] - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The service industry business activity index is slightly down at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[14] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index is at 46.2%, remaining below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months[4] - The inventory index has improved, with the purchasing index at 50.2%, up from 47.6%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[15] Group 4: External Trade and Expectations - New export orders index is at 47.7%, a slight increase from 47.5%[3] - The manufacturing production expectation index is at 52.0%, down from 52.5%[14] - The construction industry business activity expectation index is at 53.9%, up from 52.4%[14]

| | 1、央行公告称，6月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3315亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量3315 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量3315亿元。Wind数据显示，当日2205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1110亿元。 | | | 2、央行年中精准调控，资金面有望平稳跨季。近段时间以来，央行精准调控护航年中资金面。在5月降准释放长期流 | | | 动性10000亿元的基础上，6月以来，央行多次开展买断式逆回购净投放，以及加量续做MLF，为市场注入充裕的流动 | | | 性。展望7月跨月及半年度资金面，市场既抱有谨慎乐观态度，也存在一定担忧，主要在于财政因素对于资金面可能 | | | 会形成较大的干扰。 | | | 3、国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和 | | | 0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI均连续两个月位于扩张区间。 | | 宏观 | 4、财政部、国家税务总局、商务部发布公告，明确在2025年1月1日至2028年 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 市场空头氛围弥漫，商品大面积下挫；黑色系及广期所品种领跌，工业硅大跌4%，玻璃、焦煤跌近 4%，纯碱大跌3%，多晶硅、焦炭、硅铁、碳酸锂、PVC大跌2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅2509 | 7765 | -4.31% | | 玻璃2509 | 979 | -3.83% | | 焦煤2509 | 809.5 | -3.92% | | 纯碱2509 | 1163 | -3.00% | | 多昌硅2508 | 32570 | -2.78% | | 佳炭2509 | 1385.0 | -2.70% | | PVC2509 | 4817 | -2.17% | | 氧化铝2509 | 2927 | -2.01% | | 硅铁2509 | 5272 | -2.01% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 61460 | -1.95% | | 对二甲苯2509 | 6734 | -1.35% | | 铁矿石2509 | 708.5 | -1.32% | | 沪锌2508 | 22145 | - ...

Manufacturing PMI Overview - June manufacturing PMI in China is 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction zone below 50%[3] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small enterprises at 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, indicating significant divergence in performance across different enterprise sizes[4] Production and Demand Indicators - The production index for June is 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, indicating continued expansion[4] - New orders index stands at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stronger domestic demand compared to external demand[4][12] - The index representing supply-demand balance (new orders minus finished goods inventory) is at 2.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weakened effective demand[4][13] Inventory and Price Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 48.1%, up 1.6 percentage points; raw materials inventory index is at 48%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in inventory levels[5][20] - The factory price index is at 46.2%, up 1.5 percentage points, while major raw material purchase price index is at 48.4%, also up 1.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector[5][20] Employment and Supplier Dynamics - Employment index for June is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions, particularly among small enterprises[22] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting slight delays in supplier deliveries[22] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall expectation for production activities in June is at 52.0%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a pessimistic outlook among manufacturing enterprises[14][16] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector showing a notable increase to 52.8%, while the service sector slightly declined to 50.1%[5][12]

2025 年 07 月 01 日 铜：情绪利好，价格坚挺 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,870 | -0.06% | 79780 | -0.11% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,878 | -0.01% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 100,945 | -30,811 | 212,911 | -2,794 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,734 | -4,112 | 288,000 | -4,103 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 25,851 | 505 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 90,625 | -650 | 36.33% | -0.51% | ...

中国6月财新制造业PMI录得50.4，预期49.3，前值48.3。财新：生产指数和新订单指数均从收缩区间再度回到荣枯线上方，前者录得7个月新高，新出口订单指数、就业指数和原材料购进价格指数均在收缩区间上升。尽管生产和需求改善，但不确定性仍让企业对增加采购相对谨慎，采购量指数在收缩区间降至9个月新低，加之生产加快，原材料库存指数从扩张区间降至荣枯线，企业更多动用库存交付订单，产成品库存指数降至收缩区间；市场竞争激烈，厂商不得不降价促销，出厂价格指数在收缩区间降至5个月新低；生产经营预期指数在扩张区间下降，且低于长期均值。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国6月官方制造业PMI为49.7，预期49.7，前值49.5；非制造业PMI为50.5，预期50.5，前值50.3；综合PMI为50.7，前值50.4。 https://t.co/wpp39qI7lI ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is improving, especially in the black sector, due to the non - appearance of expected significant demand data decline, high - level hot metal production, rising overseas expectations for a July interest rate cut, and potential progress in Sino - US tariff issues [34]. - For most commodities, although short - term market sentiment may drive price rebounds, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, with concerns about demand weakening, supply overcapacity, and potential cost reductions [34][35][38]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, ChiNext up 1.35%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1517.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.1 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long IF index futures contracts on dips and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The yields of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. The economic data in June showed some improvement, and the central bank maintained liquidity injection. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose. The US economic data was weak, increasing market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy to loosen. It is recommended to hold a long - term view on silver prices and expect gold prices to be weak. The operating range of Shanghai gold is 732 - 786 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8561 - 9075 yuan/kilogram [8][10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased slightly. The copper price may continue to rise in the short term but the upward momentum may weaken, with the operating range of Shanghai copper at 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton and LME copper at 9750 - 10000 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price was relatively firm. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory was at a low level. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the operating range of the domestic main contract at 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at 2560 - 2620 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore supply is high, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. A strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may disturb the market sentiment. The LME Cash - 3S structure is rising, which supports the zinc price [15][16]. - **Lead**: The lead price was strong. The primary lead supply is high, the recycled lead supply is tight, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises is improving. The LME lead 7 - month contract has a high concentration of long - positions, and the Cash - 3S structure is strengthening. However, the weak domestic consumption may limit the increase of Shanghai lead [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of Shanghai nickel at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel at 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is expected to decrease. The terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [19][20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased. The production is at a historical high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of the price, with the operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2509 contract at 61200 - 63000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 at 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price was weak. The supply is high, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of the premium of the futures over the spot [24]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was volatile. The supply decreased, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [28][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price fell slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The demand for glass is weak, and the supply of soda ash is in surplus. Both are expected to be weakly volatile [30]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. Although the short - term market sentiment may drive a rebound, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for hedging opportunities [31][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait for hedging opportunities during the rebound [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy [40][41][42]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price fell, and the Brent crude oil price rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has reached a reasonable range. It is advisable to hold short positions but not to short further [43]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price fell. The inventory is low, and the demand is short - term stable. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Urea**: The urea price fell. The production decreased, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be range - bound [45]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be volatile and bearish. The cost is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price fell. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to be under pressure [48]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are both expected to weaken, and the inventory is expected to decrease slowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [49]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50][51]. - **Para - xylene**: The PX price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price rose. The short - term supply may be limited, but the demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for long - term contracts [56]. - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply and demand are balanced in the short term. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term and reduce short positions or wait and see in the short term [57]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips at the lower end of the cost range [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oil price fluctuated. The import data is weak, but there are some supportive factors. The oil price is expected to be volatile [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was strong. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, but the import profit and chaotic futures spreads limit the upward space. The sugar price may enter a consolidation phase [63][64]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuated. The US cotton quality is poor, and the domestic supply and demand are stable. The cotton price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [65][66].

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Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors as indicated by the PMI data, along with significant developments in the foreign exchange management and the solar glass industry [1][5]. Economic Indicators - In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non-manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and composite PMI was 50.7%, all showing an increase of 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1][5]. - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors have maintained PMIs in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [1]. Foreign Exchange Management - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued a total investment quota of $3.08 billion to qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) to support their cross-border investment activities [1]. Oil Price Adjustments - A new round of adjustments to domestic refined oil retail prices is expected, with an estimated increase of approximately 230 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1]. Solar Glass Industry - Major domestic solar glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate "involution-style" competition, which is expected to lead to a rapid decline in domestic solar glass supply and improve the supply-demand imbalance [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The stock index rose overall today. The release of the latest PMI data and the strong RMB exchange - rate boosted market sentiment and attracted foreign capital inflows. However, the trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink, and the arithmetic average basis of stock - index futures (except IH) deepened the discount. So, the sustainability of this round of rise is to be observed, and it is not recommended to chase the high. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions and wait and see [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index closed higher collectively. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.37%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 54.244 billion yuan, and stock - index futures rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up from 49.5, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7, up from 50.4, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of business production and operation activities. The official non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing continued expansion. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land to consolidate the stability of the real estate market [5] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.57 | 0.49 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 7.8992 | 4.0678 | 7.1303 | 17.2012 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.8361 | - 1.8499 | - 1.1319 | - 2.2096 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 24.4607 | 8.5841 | 22.1361 | 31.7645 | | Open interest change compared with the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.9541 | - 0.8594 | - 0.7778 | - 1.9165 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.59 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.83 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.60 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 14868.57 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (100 million yuan) | - 542.44 | [7]