Group 1 - The U.S. government has expanded the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to include hundreds of derivative products, with 407 product codes added to the tariff list, effective from August 18 [1] - The expanded tariff primarily targets intermediate and semi-finished products containing steel and aluminum, such as steel billets and metal structural components [1] - As of June 2025, China's aluminum exports to the U.S. are expected to account for only 6% of total aluminum exports, indicating that the tariff policy mainly affects market sentiment rather than actual trade volumes [1] Group 2 - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has stabilized, with a production capacity of 44.19 million tons and a utilization rate of 97.2% as of July, indicating strong operational willingness among smelters [2] - The upcoming traditional peak demand season ("Golden September and Silver October") is expected to drive demand growth, particularly in aluminum cable and aluminum foil sectors [2] - China's aluminum market fundamentals are strong, with low inventory pressure and limited downside for aluminum prices, suggesting a potential opportunity for buying on dips [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic futures market for ethylene glycol is showing mixed performance, with the main contract closing at 4477.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.61% increase [1] - Ethylene glycol futures are experiencing a strong performance in the external market, with recent ship cargo transactions around 521-525 USD/ton, although buying interest is weak due to an expanding market inversion [1] - The overall operating load for ethylene glycol production is at 66.39%, a decrease of 2.01% from the previous period, while the operating load for the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method is at 80.47%, an increase of 5.34% [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation of increased demand in the upcoming "golden September and silver October" consumption peak, with downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating rates showing signs of recovery [1] - The weighted profit for downstream polyester products is at 44.1 yuan/ton, down by 5.0 yuan/ton, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 86.4%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - The outlook for the ethylene glycol market suggests a slight price decline due to external chemical product pullbacks, with a small increase in import volumes and signs of improvement in terminal demand [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply side of pure benzene has been relatively strong recently. The supply of petroleum benzene has been stable, and the overall operating rate of hydrobenzene has increased significantly. The demand side shows structural differences, with an increase in the consumption of pure benzene in some products. However, the profit margins of downstream products are compressed, and the release of substantial incremental demand from new production capacity is slow. The inventory in East China ports has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand in the domestic market are both increasing in August - September. Although the supply - demand balance has improved marginally, high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption are still concerns [3]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market remains oversupplied. New production capacity is being continuously released, and there are still large - scale plant commissioning plans in September - October. The demand improvement is limited due to insufficient terminal consumption. Although there are signs of marginal improvement in the supply - demand surplus in August - September, whether the market can maintain inventory reduction remains to be observed [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On August 19, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.06% at 7,226 yuan/ton, with a basis of 54 (+14 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.06% at 6,182 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil closed at 63.4 (+0.6 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at 66.6 (+0.8 dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,095 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene's sample factory inventory was 20.9 million tons (-0.3 million tons), a 1.3% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.9 million tons (-1.0 million tons), a 6.42% decrease. The port inventory of pure benzene was 14.6 million tons (-1.7 million tons), a 10.43% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly production of styrene was 36.9 million tons (+1.0 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS among downstream 3S products changed differently. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.1% (+14.4%), ABS was 71.1% (+0%), and PS was 56.7% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.2. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and production capacity, pushing up the cost of naphtha. China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record 1,600 - 1,700 million tons in 2025 [9]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [9]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position. Reliance Industries in India emphasizes the need to develop petrochemical production capacity [9]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot, as well as the basis, are presented in the report. The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha are also included [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory data of styrene and pure benzene from August 8 to August 15, 2025, are provided, showing changes in production volume and inventory levels [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene downstream products from August 8 to August 15, 2025, are given, including styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, EPS, ABS, and PS [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment of a weakening US economy and commodity inflation restricts the space for interest rate cuts, suppressing the upside of copper prices. The short - term focus is on interest rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions and long - term overcapacity coexist, and the price is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, macro factors provide some support, but the supply - demand structure is under pressure. The supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. As it enters the transition period from the off - peak to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import situation remains the same, the spot price may remain relatively firm, and the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate of global mines in May and domestic mines in July is lower than expected. The supply at the smelting end is increasing, while the demand is in the seasonal off - peak period. Low global inventories support prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - The actual tin ore supply remains tight. If the supply recovery fails to meet expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [9]. Nickel - The macro environment has increased expectations of more aggressive easing. The spot price is basically stable, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the new energy downstream has low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating weakly. The export pressure has been temporarily alleviated, and the nickel iron price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is expected to increase, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is slightly adjusted, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while demand is showing a positive trend. The overall inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.38 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,289 yuan/ton, an improvement of 113.2 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum products have increased to varying degrees [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions. The scrap - to - refined price difference in some regions has changed, such as a 9.38% decrease in the scrap - to - refined price difference of Foshan crushed raw aluminum [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 266,000 tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,728 yuan/ton, an improvement of 62.92 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 89 dollars/ton, up 41.27% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remains stable at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 6.82% from the previous day [10]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in July was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The forward - spot spread is 385 yuan/ton, up 24.19% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in July was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remains stable at 2,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month. The total inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that industrial metal prices are expected to rise due to delayed tariff negotiations and increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside the upcoming peak consumption season in China [1] - For copper, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has increased to 70.61%, supported by State Grid orders, which boosts downstream cable consumption, and the enhanced substitution of refined copper rods for scrap copper rods as some production-reduced enterprises resume operations [1] - In the aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high, with industry operating rates recovering, and there are expectations that the peak season will drive consumption [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - The index constituents exhibit significant cyclical characteristics, closely related to global economic conditions and fluctuations in commodity prices, with industry allocation covering basic metals, precious metals, and rare metals [1] - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Index (930708), selecting representative companies from the A-share market in the non-ferrous metal industry, covering multiple sub-industries including precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in July experienced a seasonal slowdown, but year-on-year growth remained robust due to favorable policies and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million units each, with month-on-month declines of 7.3% and 10.7%, respectively, while year-on-year growth was 13.3% and 14.7% [2]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in July totaled 1.834 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 6% but a month-on-month decrease of 12% [2]. - The cumulative retail growth rate for the domestic automotive market improved from -12% in January to 11% by June, indicating a "front low, middle high" trend [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Leap Motor achieved a record delivery of 50,129 units in July, marking a year-on-year increase of over 126% [3]. - Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 30,000 units in July, while NIO delivered 21,017 units, a slight year-on-year increase of 2.53% [3]. - Li Auto's deliveries fell nearly 40% year-on-year, highlighting the competitive challenges faced by some brands [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry is undergoing a comprehensive effort to address excessive competition, with positive progress reported in reducing "involution" [5]. - The number of new car price reductions has increased, with 113 models experiencing price cuts from January to July 2023, indicating a trend towards more rational pricing [5]. - The automotive industry's profit margin reached 6.9% in June, reflecting improved market order and reduced pressure [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to see further growth during the "Golden September and Silver October" sales period, supported by ongoing policies and new model launches [7]. - The government has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of long-term special bonds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy, which is anticipated to stabilize consumer confidence [7]. - Consumer spending is expected to increase, with savings growing rapidly, enhancing purchasing power and enthusiasm for vehicle purchases [8].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【氧化铝期价五连跌，"金九银十"预期遇冷】氧化铝期价已连续五日下跌。原本"金九银十"的市场预 期，却撞上了冰冷的现实。后市方面，氧化铝期价或仍存在下行空间。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, most commodities are in a state where short - term trends are relatively balanced, and the current market operability is poor, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][9] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable with average spot trading volume. The trading of pure cotton yarn improved, and prices were slightly stronger [2] - In July, the inventory digestion in China slowed down, but it is expected to improve in August due to the approaching peak season. Tight inventory still supports prices [2] - In July, China's cotton imports were still at a low level, with 50,000 tons imported, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2% or 1.48 million tons [2] - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season, with an increase in planting area and generally ideal weather [2] - The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of most inland enterprises. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of central - southern Brazil in the second half of July was bullish, with a year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing volume and the impact of declining yield continuing to show [3] - In the short term, due to the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in Brazil, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound. In the medium term, the US sugar futures price has not bottomed out [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The sales rhythm this year is fast, inventory is down year - on - year, and spot pressure is relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the output forecast for the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples started to be listed. Due to high temperatures this year, coloring was slow, fruit size was small, and the quantity of high - quality goods was small, so prices were high [4] - As of August 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 461,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 50,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.31% [4] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the new season. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period this year, the impact on output was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated strongly. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were stable, and the prices in the Thai raw material market mostly rose [6] - Globally, the supply of natural rubber is gradually entering the high - yield period, and rainfall in most Southeast Asian producing areas is still high. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, while the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise significantly [6] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the finished product inventory of tire enterprises increased [6] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 617,000 tons, with an increase in bonded area inventory and a decrease in general trade inventory. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to decline to 11,500 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene continued to rise significantly to 204,000 tons [6] - Overall, demand is average, rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is decreasing, and market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined significantly. The spot price of Shandong Moon was stable at 5,500 yuan/ton, the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,300 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was stable at 4,200 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.099 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period and a month - on - month increase of 2.5% [7] - In July, domestic social retail data weakened month - on - month, and the driving effect of trade - in programs weakened, indicating a continued decline in domestic demand [7] - Currently, domestic port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, and pulp demand is still weak. After entering August, downstream demand may gradually pick up as it approaches the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable [8] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. The overseas quotation has risen for two consecutive months, while the increase in domestic spot prices is small, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply may remain at a low level [8] - After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good [8] - As of August 15, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The total log inventory is low, and inventory pressure is relatively small [8] - Overall, the supply - demand situation has improved, but peak - season demand has not yet started. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy remains undecided, leading to uncertainty in the copper market as the traditional peak season "Golden September and Silver October" approaches [1] Group 1 - The upcoming peak season is expected to influence copper prices, which are currently experiencing high volatility [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring whether the current price fluctuations will stabilize or break out of the existing range [1]

Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with manganese silicon futures showing weak performance and a decline of 2.26% [1] - Manganese silicon futures opened at 5996.00 yuan/ton, with a daily high of 6012.00 yuan and a low of 5870.00 yuan [1] - The market sentiment is affected by new regulations limiting daily opening positions for non-futures company members on certain contracts, which may impact trading activity [1] Group 2 - New Lake Futures reports that manganese silicon production rates are increasing, with weekly output rising for 13 consecutive weeks, supported by improved profit margins [2] - The expectation of a strong market in the second half of the year, along with seasonal demand in September and October, is anticipated to support manganese silicon prices [2] - However, the downstream demand for rebar remains weak, necessitating close monitoring of the fulfillment of seasonal demand expectations [2] Group 3 - Five Mines Futures indicates that manganese silicon prices are still above the short-term rebound trend line since early June, but the market is in a declining wave cycle [2] - The current market is characterized by a disordered and weak price trend, suggesting that investors should adopt a cautious approach and consider waiting for better trading opportunities [2]