Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) is expected to be frequently adjusted downward before early 2025, influenced by the "prepayment wave" and global interest rate trends [3] - The LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months since May, despite high expectations for a reduction [3] - There is a strong anticipation for a rate cut in the domestic market, aligning with global trends, especially following the recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% [3] Group 2 - A potential wave of interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions is anticipated before the upcoming "Two Sessions" in 2024, aimed at boosting confidence in the economy [5] - The primary task for the government is to stabilize the economy, as indicated by high-level directives [5] - Borrowers with mortgages are encouraged to maintain faith in the eventual arrival of interest rate cuts, despite the current stagnation in LPR adjustments [5]

Group 1 - The 1-year LPR remains at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a stable interest rate environment for now, but signals suggest that a rate cut may occur as early as January next year [1] - In Suzhou, the mainstream banks are offering a first home loan interest rate of 3.0%, which is seen as the "invisible lower limit" for mortgage rates, with banks likely to maintain this level even if the LPR is reduced [2][3] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference confirmed the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy into 2026, emphasizing the flexible use of various policy tools such as rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [4] Group 2 - Market predictions indicate at least one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction in the coming year, with the potential for more if necessary, reflecting an increased monetary policy space compared to the past two years [5] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have provided greater flexibility for China's monetary policy operations, with a cumulative reduction of 175 basis points in the current cycle [6] - A new policy from the central bank allows individuals to repair their credit records for overdue payments under certain conditions, which could facilitate future home loan approvals [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), treasury bonds (TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn; bearish on crude oil, methanol, apples, and container shipping to Europe [6] 2. Core Views - A - shares are expected to form a long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern with the resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive". The expected December interest rate cut by the Fed and capital market reforms will further strengthen this foundation [2][12] - The downward trend of CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, and weak employment data supports the Fed to continue cutting rates, boosting precious metal prices. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [3][20] - The short - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to continue consolidation, while a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained, considering supply and demand factors and the approaching holidays [4][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day 3.1.1. International News - The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles" requirements, seen as a concession to the traditional European automotive industry and a step back in climate policy [7] 3.1.2. Domestic News - State - owned enterprises will take on national science and technology tasks, aiming to make breakthroughs in "neck - choking" areas and supply "root technologies" and key common technologies [8] 3.1.3. Industry News - Three government departments jointly issued the "Internet Platform Price Behavior Rules" to promote the innovation and healthy development of the platform economy [9] 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.88%, ICE Brent crude oil increased 1.41%, London silver climbed 2.26%, and other varieties showed different degrees of price changes from December 18th to 19th [11] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial - **Stock Indices**: The long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's expected December interest rate cut and positive policy signals will boost market risk appetite [2][12] - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of short - term treasury bond futures is supported by the expectation of loose policies, despite factors such as the rise in US and Japanese bond yields [13][14] 3.3.2. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse, with a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories [15] - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as the decline in CTO/MTO开工率 and the change in coastal inventory [16] - **Rubber**: Short - term rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to supply and demand factors [17] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to the cost trend and the digestion rhythm of supply and demand [18] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The focus of market trading is shifting to the May contract [19] 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3][20] - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply - demand gap due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to factors such as the US dollar and downstream demand [21] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Market sentiment and related factors need to be monitored [22] - **Aluminum**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate, and a long - term optimistic view is maintained, considering supply, demand, and holiday factors [4][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction, the overall trend is still upward, and attention should be paid to factors such as production resumption and demand verification [24][25] 3.3.4. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a significant decline, the double - coking market is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to factors such as iron - water production and downstream inventory [26] - **Steel**: The short - term steel price has the potential to rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak, affected by supply, demand, and macro - expectations [27] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term iron ore prices are expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, considering factors such as shipping, inventory, and steel - mill demand [28] 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meals**: Domestic soybean meal is expected to continue range - bound due to factors such as the slow US soybean exports and sufficient future supply [29] - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as palm oil export policies and inventory pressure [30][31] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar shows signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply and cost factors on market sentiment [32] - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [33] 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate of the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure as the Spring Festival approaches and the shipping schedule changes [34]

美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特周五在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，美国总统特朗普说通胀处于低位是正确的，尽管数 据、公众舆论和多数经济学家都不认同这一观点。 哈塞特表示，以年同比为基础评估通胀的普遍做法是错误的，最好是看三个月移动平均线的价格压力。这意味着物价 压力并没有大大超出美联储2%的目标，实际上是低于目标的。 今日周一(12月22日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于68.50一线上方，今日开盘于67.32美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白 银暂报68.96美元/盎司，上涨2.72%，最高触及68.99美元/盎司，最低下探67.26美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短 线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 国际白银多头下一个上行目标位为收盘价突破关键技术阻力位70.00美元；空头下一个下行目标位则是推动收盘价跌破 关键支撑位60.00美元。阻力位为历史高点67.18美元；初步支撑位关注隔夜低点64.465美元，进一步支撑位为低点 63.725美元。 哈塞特解释说，从三个月的平均价格压力来看，目前的通胀率约为1.6%。美国核心通胀"处于或低于目标水平"，这使 得美联储"有充足空间"降息。 另外美联储理事米兰重申应继续降息，以抵消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has resumed 14-day reverse repos to release year-end liquidity, maintaining stability in the money market, while short-term interest rates strengthen under expectations of loose monetary policy [1] Market Overview - The bond market saw fluctuations with the yield curve steepening, as the 10-year government bond yield decreased by nearly 1 basis point (BP) and the 30-year yield fell by over 2 BP during the week [1] - The yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (-3.32 BP), 2-year (-1.99 BP), 3-year (-2.2 BP), 5-year (-2.58 BP), 7-year (-1.52 BP), 10-year (-0.88 BP), and 30-year (-2.35 BP) [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a recovery mid-week after initial declines, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.836% [2] - The 30-year bond contract saw a slight increase of 0.02% over the week, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.14% each [5] Issuance in Primary Market - A total of 35 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 376.13 billion yuan, including 4 government bonds worth 296.04 billion yuan [7] - For the upcoming week, 8 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 150.04 billion yuan, with 2 government bonds worth 148 billion yuan [7] International Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell overall, with the 10-year yield down by 3 BP to 4.16% and the 2-year yield down by 4 BP to 3.48% [8] - In Japan, the central bank raised interest rates to 0.75%, leading to a sell-off in government bonds, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 1999 at 2.023% [8] Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7%, lower than expected, which has increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [11] Institutional Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the bond market is currently in a consolidation phase, with expectations of continued monetary easing and potential trading opportunities emerging in the first quarter of the following year [15] - The market is characterized by high volatility, driven by differing behaviors of institutional investors and trading desks, with ongoing concerns about supply pressures and regulatory changes [16]

汇通财经APP讯——资本经济学指出，新任美联储主席人选即将提名，以接替任期于明年五月结束的杰 罗姆·鲍威尔。然而，美国经济形势可能会限制降息幅度，使其难以达到特朗普总统期望的水平。 核心冲突：新主席的火线就职 资本经济学在上周四（12月18日）发布的报告中指出，近期由人工智能引领的投资热潮仅是多年资本支 出繁荣的开端。因此，即便考虑到就业市场疲软将拖累消费，2026年和2027年国内生产总值仍将保持 2.5%的强劲增长。 资本经济学预测道："由于核心通胀将在较长时间内持续高于2%的目标水平，我们预计美联储2026年仅 会降息25个基点，这将导致新任美联储主席与特朗普总统几乎立即陷入对立。" 特朗普总统正在考虑的人选包括国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和前美 联储理事凯文·沃什。预测市场Kalshi数据显示哈西特以54%的押注概率领跑，其次是沃什（24%）和沃 勒（14%）。 报道补充称，与可能促使官员们在过去几个月累计降息75个基点的劳动力市场脆弱性相比，她更担忧持 续高企的通胀问题。 特朗普表示将提名"坚信应大幅降息"的人选。此前美联储降息25个基点至3.5%-3.75%后，他抱怨 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为72.05%，减1.11%；焦炭日均产量63.00万吨，减0.98万吨； 焦炭库存91.10万吨，增3.78万吨；炼焦煤总库存1036.29万 吨，减1.01万吨；焦煤可用天数12.4天，增0.18天。评：供应 端，产地部分前期换工作面的煤矿恢复生产，但随着完成年度 任务减产的煤矿继续增加，国内供应依旧偏紧。需求端，焦炭 产量小幅回落，中下游按需采购为主，上游煤矿累库放缓。整 体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回 升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加 大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 【短评-白银】美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示， 与古尔斯比观点一致，当前仍存在充足的降息空间。特朗普希 望美联储主席能够作出独立判断，特朗普助手们将在佛罗里达 讨论住房政策，预计很快将在新年宣布"重大"住房计划。 评：目前关于未来降息的分歧有所加强，但是对政府的各种刺 激政策的预期增加，提振风险偏好。降息预期对贵金属存在支 撑，整体来看，降息周期对白银依然偏多支撑。关注黄金波动 对 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储官员鹰派表态降息，中国国常会部署 稳经济工作 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-22 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储鹰派暗示不会降息 哈马克力主维持高利率更长时间 美联储鹰派官员表态不会降息，利率维持高位更长时间，表明 对于通胀担忧继续存在，美元短期震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 国常会要求加快部署中央经济工作会议安排 综 近期宏观空窗期，A 股走势波澜不惊，短暂的回调之势被国家队 等稳市资金阻断，市场再度震荡上行。展望后市，跨年行情或 将维持高位窄幅震荡的态势。 有色金属（铜） 1-10 月全球精炼铜市场供应过剩 12.2 万吨 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 562 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 超长端品种继续大幅下跌的概率在下降，市场有望温和修复。 农产品（棉花） 美棉出口周报（11.20-11.27）：签约下滑 我国 11 月棉花棉纱进口环比同比双增，其中 11 月棉纱进口同比 增 25%至 15 万吨。配额短缺限制棉花进口，但进口纱竞争优势 增强，吸引部分企业加大采购。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 247 家钢厂高炉铁水日均产量 22 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Palladium futures have surpassed $1800 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.85% [1] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - WTI crude oil has crossed $57 per barrel, also showing a daily rise of 0.85% [2] Group 3: Macro and Market Impact - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, indicated that there is still ample room for interest rate cuts; the current three-month average core inflation rate stands at 1.6% [3][4] - Hassett mentioned that President Trump hopes the Federal Reserve Chairman will adhere to a "data-dependent" principle for independent judgment, with a significant housing policy proposal expected to be announced in early next year [5][6] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio expressed confidence in maintaining a strong partnership with Japan while seeking productive cooperation with the Chinese government, drawing attention to U.S. policy direction in the Asia-Pacific region [7] - On December 20, Li Bing, Deputy Secretary-General of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, met with the President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Yu Weiwen, to discuss deepening cooperation with Hong Kong and supporting its status as a financial center [8] - The front page of the People's Daily includes topics such as optimizing regional economic layout under a "one chessboard" approach, promoting comprehensive green transformation in economic and social development, and practices for high-quality energy development by the Southern Power Grid [9]