在近期的震荡行情中，关于AI是否存在泡沫的讨论升温，知名投资人段永平也加入其中。日前，他在 回复网友时表示："我不觉得英伟达是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。" 近日，段永平在回复网友时表示："我不觉得英伟达是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。我很开心那些大空头成 了我的客户，我会很乐意收他们的保费的。我确实说过我要在伯克希尔·哈撒韦里面躲一会儿牛市，现 在似乎可以出来了哈。" 根据美股机构投资者13F持仓披露情况，截至2025年三季度末，段永平管理的H&H International Investment持有英伟达59.78万股，持仓市值为1.12亿美元。英伟达位列其第八大持仓。不过，和二季度 末相比，段永平减持英伟达36.7万股。 从近期段永平的发言中，能看出其对英伟达的最新态度。10月以来，段永平曾在雪球多次提及英伟达， 以及自己对AI板块的看法。 从国内市场看，机构依然对科技板块高度关注，大多认为尽管市场出现短期波动，但无碍AI行业的长 期向好趋势。 段永平再谈英伟达 华夏基金表示，TMT行业公募持仓处于高位并伴随丰厚涨幅，叠加年末机构排名临近，或有部分资金 抢跑、提前锁定利润，导致成长风格资金抽离较多。但是，更多 ...

来源 | 新智元 提起AI泡沫，人们会很自然联想到2000年前后的那场互联网技术泡沫。 从经济规模来看，AI泡沫可能会比互联网泡沫惨烈17倍！ 这一数字，源自目前AI的投资规模为2000年代初互联网泡沫破裂前，互联网公司投资规模的17倍。 以英伟达为例，其4.6万亿美元的市值仅次于美国、中国和德国的GDP，已经超过了日本、印度、英国等国家。 与如此惊人的估值相对应的是，到目前为止AI并没有让人看到多少真正能够落地的价值。 根据管理咨询公司麦肯锡的一份报告，近80%使用AI的公司发现，它对利润并没有产生显著影响。 经过多年炒作和投资飙升之后，人工智能技术的热潮开始显露出吃紧的迹象。 许多金融分析师现在都认同存在一个AI泡沫，有些人还推测，这个泡沫可能会在接下来的几个月里最终破裂。 对这项技术实用性和财务可行性的质疑，正在让分析师和投资者认为，一场崩盘正在逼近。 就连OpenAI CEO奥特曼以及谷歌DeepMind CEO哈萨比斯（Demis Hassabis）也认为，当前的AI有些泡沫化。 他们认为那些仅靠「几个人和一个想法」「几乎什么都没有」的项目，在种子轮可以估值数十亿美元，这在逻辑上是说不通的。 如果A ...

美国经济对人工智能投资的依赖程度已达到危险水平。上周AI相关股票的剧烈波动暴露了一个更广泛 的风险：如果AI繁荣转向泡沫破裂，可能将整个经济拖入衰退。 标普500指数上周下跌约2%，市场对AI泡沫的担忧正在升温。分析师警告，一旦AI投资放缓或股价暴 跌，可能引发逆向财富效应，最终将脆弱的劳动力市场推向衰退。 AI投资成为经济增长唯一引擎 报道称，AI相关投资已成为支撑美国经济的核心支柱。 美国银行估算，微软、亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta四家公司今年的资本支出将达到3440亿美元，相当于 GDP的1.1%，较去年的2280亿美元大幅增长。 巴克莱银行估计，软件、计算机设备和数据中心投资在2025年上半年将GDP年化增长率拉高约1个百分 点，其中AI投资贡献了大部分。 尽管英伟达等公司销售的芯片占AI支出的大头，但多数需要进口，计入国内生产时需扣除。即便如 此，AI支出在上半年仍使产出年化增长0.8%，而同期GDP年化增速为1.6%。这意味着如果没有AI相关 支出增长，经济增速将仅为疲弱的0.8%。 11月24日，据报道，AI相关投资在今年上半年可能贡献了美国实际GDP增长的近一半。微软、亚马 逊、Alph ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在近期的震荡行情中，关于AI是否存在泡沫的讨论升温，知名投资人段永平也加入其中。日前，他在 回复网友时表示："我不觉得英伟达是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。" 根据美股机构投资者13F持仓披露情况，截至2025年三季度末，段永平管理的H&H International Investment持有英伟达59.78万股，持仓市值为1.12亿美元。英伟达位列其第八大持仓。不过，和二季度 末相比，段永平减持英伟达36.7万股。 段永平再谈英伟达 近日，段永平在回复网友时表示："我不觉得英伟达是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。我很开心那些大空头成 了我的客户，我会很乐意收他们的保费的。我确实说过我要在伯克希尔·哈撒韦里面躲一会儿牛市，现 在似乎可以出来了哈。" 从近期段永平的发言中，能看出其对英伟达的最新态度。10月以来，段永平曾在雪球多次提及英伟达， 以及自己对AI板块的看法。 从国内市场看，机构依然对科技板块高度关注，大多认为尽管市场出现短期波动，但无碍AI行业的长 期向好趋势。 在近日与雪球创始人方三文对话时，段永平也说道："英伟达确实是厉害，我也看了 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, the market remains cautious about the tech sector, with funds continuing to flow into defensive sectors like healthcare instead of returning to tech stocks [1][3]. - Nvidia's revenue grew by 65% year-over-year, with data center revenue increasing by 66%, and the company provided a fourth-quarter outlook of approximately $65 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $62 billion [3][4]. - Concerns about the sustainability of cash flows in the AI sector are rising, as companies like Oracle and Meta are heavily leveraging to maintain their capital expenditures, leading to skepticism about the long-term viability of their aggressive spending strategies [4][5]. Group 2 - The market is experiencing a shift in sentiment towards AI investments, with increased scrutiny and doubts about the profitability of AI applications, particularly following the release of Google's Gemini 3 model [6]. - Macroeconomic factors are also impacting market sentiment, with a significant decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which poses a threat to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [7][8]. - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped significantly from over 90% to around 27% [7].

Group 1 - UBS expects weak data this week to increase the probability of a Fed rate cut by year-end, which may put pressure on the dollar [1] - UBS forecasts a 15% rise in global stock markets by 2026, driven by AI and technology, with US GDP growth projected at 1.7% [1] - Barclays suggests that Powell may push for a rate cut next month, with a split among Fed officials on the decision [2] - Barclays anticipates the dollar will strengthen until 2026, supported by significant AI capital expenditure in the US [3] Group 2 - ANZ reports that gold prices have retreated but the fundamentals remain strong, with silver outperforming gold [5] - Bank of America expresses caution regarding Japan's economic stimulus plan, predicting limited impact on GDP growth [4][5] - CICC predicts gold prices could rise to $4,500 per ounce by 2026, driven by cyclical demand [6] - CITIC Securities highlights that global risk assets are overly reliant on AI narratives, suggesting potential volatility [7] - CITIC Securities notes that hydrogen energy is expected to gradually enter the industrialization phase under policy support [8] - CITIC Securities identifies three main lines for consumer goods investment, focusing on the food and beverage sector [9] - CITIC Securities believes that the current market is in a "three-phase overlap," indicating a long-term bullish trend [11] - CITIC Securities sees the establishment of a commercial space agency as a significant step for the satellite industry [13]

Core Insights - The market's hope for a recovery in tech stocks was pinned on Nvidia's earnings report, but despite a strong performance, selling pressure continued in the tech sector, with funds shifting towards more defensive areas like healthcare [2][3] Group 1: Nvidia's Earnings and Market Reaction - Nvidia reported a remarkable quarterly revenue growth of 65% year-over-year, marking a return to acceleration for the first time in two years, with data center revenue increasing by 66% [3] - Despite the strong earnings, concerns about an "AI bubble" persisted, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks rather than a rebound [3][4] - Institutional investors have been reducing their tech positions, with funds flowing into defensive sectors, particularly healthcare [2][3] Group 2: Concerns Over AI Investment Returns - There are growing worries about the sustainability of cash flows in the AI sector, as companies like Oracle and Meta are heavily leveraging to maintain capital expenditures [4][5] - The need for substantial capital investment in AI raises questions about the industry's ability to generate sufficient returns, with estimates suggesting a need for $650 billion in annual cash flow by 2030 to achieve a 10% return on cumulative capital [5][6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Market Sentiment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased, which poses a risk to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [6][7] - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years [6][7] - Concerns about inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields are also affecting market sentiment, with a significant portion of U.S. debt concentrated in the short-term [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The controversy over the AI bubble has intensified, and the NVIDIA earnings report has affected the global market. Risk - asset prices have fluctuated sharply and declined. The Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation, suppressing investors' risk appetite [5][10]. - The domestic futures market style has switched with price corrections. The anti - involution market has returned, with lithium carbonate being the protagonist, driven by supply and demand, and showing international and domestic linkage [7][119]. - The stock market and commodities have both declined. The difference between commodity and stock returns has converged, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns has hovered around the 0 axis [52]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - AI bubble controversy has increased, and the NVIDIA earnings report has made the market nervous. Risk - asset prices have fallen, global stocks and commodities have declined, A - shares have dropped significantly, the BDI index has risen against the trend, the US dollar index has strengthened, and most non - US currencies have depreciated. Commodities are mostly down, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals falling. The domestic bond market has mixed results, and stock indexes have all tumbled. Most domestic commodity sectors have declined except for the grain sector [5][10]. Big - Class Assets - Global stocks and commodities have declined. Bitcoin and US stocks have fallen rapidly from highs, the VIX volatility index has risen significantly, the BDI index has risen, the US dollar index has strengthened, most non - US currencies have depreciated, and commodities are mostly down [5][10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has mixed results with near - term strength and long - term weakness, stock indexes have all tumbled, and most domestic commodity sectors have declined except for the grain sector. The Wind commodity index has a weekly change of - 4.55%, with 1 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 9 falling [15]. Fund Flows - The commodity futures market has seen a significant overall outflow of funds. The soft commodity, grain, and energy sectors have seen obvious inflows, while the non - ferrous, precious metal, and non - metallic building materials sectors have seen significant outflows [19]. Variety Performance - In the past week, domestic major commodity futures have had mixed results. The top - rising commodity futures are lithium carbonate, iron ore, and styrene, while the top - falling ones are silver futures, low - sulfur fuel oil, and soda ash [23]. Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index has changed little, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua commodity indexes has risen. Most commodity futures sectors have seen an increase in volatility, with the oilseeds and chemical sectors seeing a decline in volatility, and the precious metal, agricultural product, and non - ferrous sectors seeing the most obvious increase in volatility [27]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities have generally declined, the BDI has risen, the CRB has fallen, soybeans have risen while corn has fallen, copper, oil, gold, and silver have all declined, and the gold - silver ratio has rebounded significantly [31]. Macro Logic - Stock indexes have fallen sharply, valuations have declined, and the risk premium ERP has risen. Commodity price indexes have fallen significantly, and inflation expectations have declined under pressure. US Treasury yields have declined, the term structure has flattened in a bullish way, the term spread has changed little, and real interest rates and gold prices have both fallen [35][45][62]. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, the stock market fell sharply, and commodities declined together. The negative difference between commodity and stock returns has converged. The Nanhua and CRB commodity indexes have both declined significantly, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns has hovered around the 0 axis [52]. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed has risen. The probability of a 25 - bp cut to 3.5 - 3.75% is 67.3%, significantly higher than last week's 39.8%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% has significantly decreased [6][81]. NVIDIA Earnings Report - The market has high expectations for NVIDIA's earnings report, with Wall Street generally optimistic, but some institutions are concerned about the AI bubble. The earnings report has exceeded expectations, temporarily alleviating concerns about the AI bubble and boosting the global capital market. However, the stock price has fallen during trading, and the US stock market has reversed sharply [87][91][97]. Fed's Hawkish Stance - The Fed's meeting minutes and the remarks of Fed officials have weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation. The US dollar has strengthened, the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, and the US Treasury yield has fluctuated widely [103]. Market Style Switching - Overseas, the market is worried about the release of major US data, the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the controversy over the AI bubble. Domestically, affected by overseas market volatility, investors have shifted from technology stocks to cyclical stocks, and the anti - involution market has returned, with lithium carbonate being the focus [119]. This Week's Focus - A series of important economic data and events in the US, Germany, the UK, New Zealand, the eurozone, South Korea, and Japan will be released this week, including business activity indexes, GDP data, inflation data, and central bank interest - rate decisions [122].

Group 1: AI Market Outlook in China - The development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) are opening new opportunities for the Chinese stock market, with a focus on application rather than just computational power [1][2] - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun believes that the AI-driven stock rally in China is not a bubble, as Chinese tech companies can expand valuations and profits by focusing on applications [1][2] - The total market capitalization of China's top ten tech companies is $2.5 trillion, compared to $25 trillion for their U.S. counterparts, indicating a significant valuation gap [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment and Concerns - There is growing optimism about China's rise as an AI superpower, especially following the launch of efficient low-cost models by startups like DeepSeek and new AI tools from major tech companies [2] - In contrast, the U.S. market is experiencing significant volatility, with concerns about a potential AI bubble as large tech firms announce massive capital expenditures in the AI sector [2][3] - Some investors argue that the current investment cycle in AI is a boom rather than a bubble, citing strong demand and supply dynamics [3] Group 3: Challenges in AI Implementation - A report from MIT highlights that despite $30-40 billion invested in enterprise AI, 95% of organizations are seeing no return on investment, leading to a divide in AI outcomes [6][8] - The report indicates that only 5% of integrated AI pilots are generating significant value, while most projects remain stalled without measurable impact on profits [6][8] - Key barriers to scaling AI solutions include a lack of learning and adaptation in most systems, rather than issues related to infrastructure or regulation [8][9]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains its core judgment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two additional cuts in March and June 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a terminal level of 3%-3.25% [1][4] - The upcoming December 10 meeting is unlikely to be hindered by any factors, as key economic reports will be released after the meeting, shifting market focus from "whether to cut rates" to the policy path and economic landing shape post-cut [2][4] - The U.S. economy is expected to accelerate growth to a range of 2%-2.5% in 2026, with the unemployment rate stabilizing slightly above the September level of 4.44% due to reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and eased financial conditions [4][5] Group 2 - Despite a seemingly strong non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 jobs, there are growing concerns about the labor market, with potential job growth trends estimated at only 39,000 jobs, and signs of layoffs emerging in October [7] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 25 and older has risen by 1 percentage point to 2.8%, while the rate for graduates aged 20 to 24 has climbed to 8.5%, indicating a deterioration in job opportunities for this key demographic [7] - Concerns about the "AI bubble" suggest that while AI is projected to create significant incremental capital income over the next 10-15 years, current stock market valuations have already priced in these expectations, leading to forecasts of lower returns for U.S. equities over the next decade [8]