1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2][3] - Urea: Cautiously chase long [3] - Natural gas: Bearish rebound [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South America have an impact on the prices of energy - related products. Supply - demand imbalances exist in many varieties, with some facing over - supply pressure during the off - season, while others have weak demand. Cost factors, especially the price of crude oil, play a crucial role in the price trends of many products [1][7][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Summary**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, but there is still uncertainty. The market is in an off - season with supply surplus, and inventories are rising. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term, with short - term rebounds possible [1][11][12] - **Price Information**: WTI主力 at $59.34, Brent主力 at $64.13, and SC主力 at 442.6 yuan/barrel [9] - **Supply**: Iraq's daily oil export in January 2026 is expected to be 3.6 million barrels [12] - **Demand**: The share of Middle East crude supply in India's December 2025 crude imports rose to nearly 54% [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, US crude inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [12] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may push the price into a low - price range. Short - term, watch for rebounds, and for SC, focus on the range of [430 - 445] [13] LPG - **Summary**: It follows the downward trend of the cost - end crude oil price. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. The inventory shows positive signals [1][17] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the PG主力 contract closed at 4124 yuan/ton, down 0.48% [16] - **Supply**: As of the week of January 16, the LPG commodity volume was 518,700 tons, up 600 tons [17] - **Demand**: As of the week of January 16, the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates were 73.07% (- 2.54pct), 67.57% (+0.00pct), and 37.99% (+0.32pct) respectively [17] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, the refinery inventory was 156,700 tons, down 1,900 tons, and the port inventory was 2.0278 million tons, down 104,200 tons [17] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price may continue to decline. Focus on the range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Summary**: The basis weakens, and it follows the cost - end to move weakly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22] - **Price Information**: L05 closed at 6667 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 yuan/ton [20][22] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 14%, and the planned device restart this week may lead to a slight increase in production [22] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [22] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6600 - 6750] [22] PP - **Summary**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the supply is slightly increasing. It follows the cost to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply - demand is weak on both sides [26] - **Price Information**: PP05 closed at 6482 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 19%, and the PDH profit is low, increasing the expectation of maintenance [26] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [26] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [26] PVC - **Summary**: The price of calcium carbide has increased, and the price of liquid caustic soda has decreased, with improved cost support. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [30] - **Price Information**: V05 closed at 4801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 241 yuan/ton [28][30] - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate has increased to 80% [30] - **Demand**: In the seasonal off - season, both domestic and foreign demand are weak [30] - **Inventory**: Social inventory has reached a new high [30] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PX/PTA - **Summary**: It is in a range - bound state. The processing fee has been repaired, but the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the cost - end PX is in a weak balance [32] - **Price Information**: TA05 closed at 5018 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices are under maintenance, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [32] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [32] - **Inventory**: There is a slight accumulation of inventory in January - February, but the pressure is not large [32] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for 05 contract, and focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Summary**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic supply load has increased, while the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January - February [35] - **Price Information**: EG05 closed at 3614 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 yuan/ton [34][35] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices have changed their operating status, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [35] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [35] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [35] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and focus on the range of [3700 - 3770] [36] Methanol - **Summary**: The valuation is not low, and the comprehensive profit is weak. The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased, and the demand is slightly weak. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [39][40] - **Price Information**: The valuation of methanol is at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis is strengthening [39] - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas devices have reduced their operating rates, and the import volume in January is expected to be about 850,000 tons [39][40] - **Demand**: The demand from the olefin industry and traditional downstream industries is weak [39][40] - **Inventory**: The (port) inventory has been significantly reduced [40] - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of [2180 - 2240] [41] Urea - **Summary**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the supply is increasing with the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices. The short - term demand is relatively strong, but it will enter the off - season during the festival. The price has a ceiling and a floor under the policies of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" [43][44] - **Price Information**: The main contract of urea closed at 1801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [42][44] - **Supply**: The operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea devices are rising, and the daily output is at a high level [44] - **Demand**: The winter storage is progressing steadily, and the demand from compound fertilizers and melamine industries is strong, but the export is weakening month - on - month [43][44] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is still at a relatively high level [43] - **Strategy**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, and the supply pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the range of [1760 - 1790] [45] Natural Gas - **Summary**: Affected by cold air, the demand has been boosted in the short - term, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure in the long - term [49] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the NG主力 contract closed at $2.702 per million British thermal units, up 0.75% [48] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the natural gas production of industrial enterprises above designated size increased steadily. The number of natural gas rigs in the US decreased [49] - **Demand**: The proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the terminal sales of heavy - duty trucks was 26.00% from January to November 2025 [49] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, the US natural gas inventory decreased by 71 billion cubic feet [49] - **Strategy**: In the winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of [3.361 - 3.991] [49] Asphalt - **Summary**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the price has followed the decline of crude oil. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the cracking spread is gradually returning to normal but still has room for compression [54] - **Price Information**: The BU主力 contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [52] - **Supply**: The production in December 2025 increased slightly, and the operating rate has changed [53] - **Demand**: The demand has entered the off - season, and the shipment volume has decreased [53] - **Inventory**: The inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [53] - **Strategy**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Pay attention to the range of [3100 - 3200] [54] Glass - **Summary**: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the price is expected to continue to decline [58] - **Price Information**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [56][58] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume has slightly increased, but supply reduction is still needed [58] - **Demand**: The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the number of deep - processing orders is low [58] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1040 - 1080] [58] Soda Ash - **Summary**: The operating rate of production enterprises has increased, and the factory inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level. The demand from the float glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [62] - **Price Information**: SA05 closed at 1192 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 42 yuan/ton [60][62] - **Supply**: The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to 87% [62] - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, resulting in insufficient demand [62] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [62]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the EU's response to President Trump's threat of imposing tariffs on eight European countries, which has led to a lack of consensus among EU member states on countermeasures [1][3] - The proposed countermeasures include a list of tariffs amounting to €93 billion, but these remain in the planning stage and are not expected to be implemented until after February 6 [1][5] - The meeting highlighted a divide between hawkish members advocating for strong retaliation and doves favoring dialogue, resulting in a situation where the EU's verbal condemnation of the U.S. did not translate into decisive action [3][5] Group 2 - China's response to the situation emphasized adherence to international law and norms, criticizing the U.S. for using economic pressure as a geopolitical tool [5][7] - The ongoing negotiations reflect a complex interplay of geopolitical interests, with the U.S. focusing on Greenland's strategic value while Europe remains hesitant to confront the U.S. due to its reliance on American security [5][7] - The incident illustrates the fragility of ally relationships when economic measures are employed as geopolitical weapons, raising concerns about future negotiations on various contentious issues [7]

Group 1 - Denmark has increased its military presence in Greenland by deploying additional troops, coinciding with U.S. President Trump's expressed interest in acquiring the territory [1][4] - Approximately 100 Danish soldiers have arrived in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, with more troops expected to be deployed to the western region of the island [5] - The Danish Ministry of Defense has stated that the decision to enhance military activities in Greenland is a response to rising geopolitical tensions in the Arctic region [5] Group 2 - The Danish military has confirmed a significant increase in troop numbers stationed in Greenland, indicating a strategic shift in response to external pressures [4] - The deployment of soldiers is part of a broader initiative to strengthen Denmark's military capabilities in the Arctic, reflecting concerns over national security [5]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns driving the strategic status of metals [1] - The global base metals market is undergoing a structural reshaping of supply and demand dynamics, with strong and sustained demand from green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power [1] - Supply constraints are becoming more rigid due to long-term investment shortages, declining resource grades, and extended project production cycles [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.5 million tons, reaching 44.25 million tons, with industry profitability exceeding 6,000 RMB per ton [2] - High aluminum prices are suppressing demand, leading to an increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventory by 39,000 tons [2] Group 3: Alumina Market - The alumina market continues to experience inventory accumulation, with weekly operating capacity at 96.25 million tons, an increase of 40 tons [3] - Inventory levels are at historical highs, with a weekly increase of 75,000 tons, and profit margins are negative, with losses expanding to -186 RMB per ton based on domestic ore prices [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and production cuts at mines, with the copper concentrate processing fee declining to -46.53 USD per ton [4] - The operating rate of major copper rod enterprises increased to 57.47%, while global copper inventory rose to 1.0874 million tons, an increase of 77,800 tons week-on-week [4] Group 5: Zinc Market - The zinc market shows weak consumption with visible inventory accumulation, as the galvanizing operating rate recorded 53.48%, a decrease of 0.91% [5] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory remains stable at 118,400 tons, while LME inventory is at 106,500 tons, showing minimal change [5]

1月17日，特朗普通过Truth Social宣布，从2月1日起，美国将对包括丹麦、德国、法国、英国等8个欧洲国家加征10%关税。更绝的 是，他在文末下了一道通牒：如果在6月1日前拿不出让美国满意的"格陵兰协议"，税率将上调至25%。 美股投资网必须提醒各位，不要把这简单看作是又一次"贸易摩擦"。如果你把视角拉高，将1月3日美军突袭委内瑞拉的"绝对决心行 动"与此时此刻的格陵兰关税战放在一起看，你会发现，华盛顿正在进行一场冷战以来最赤裸、最庞大的资源圈地运动。 美国这次真正要夺取的，从来不是所谓的"民主政权"或"岛屿主权"，而是支撑未来50年霸权的物理基石：重油、稀土以及极地航道的 绝对控制权。 其实美国真正担心的是：中国和俄罗斯。 欧盟的"8万亿"核反击 面对25%的阶梯关税威胁，欧盟的反应极其强烈。法国已经敦促启动"反胁迫机制"（ACI），这是一种涵盖资本流动限制和资产冻结的 金融防御武器。 德意志银行外汇研究主管萨拉维洛斯在最新报告中披露了一个令华尔街脊背发凉的数据：欧洲实体持有的美国债券和股.票资产总额高 达8万亿美元。 这8万亿美元，是美国流动性的压舱石，也是欧洲手中能让美股瞬间失血的"金融核武"。 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 特朗普言论震惊欧洲，欧洲即将反击，美国最高院开审库克案，美联储降息概率反 复，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★★ | | | | | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，尽管白银未被征收关税，但同时交割交 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 易等持续，短期交易所调保，短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年， | | | | 全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | 铜 | | 特朗普为夺取格陵兰岛威胁对欧洲加征关税，欧美关系恶化，美元走弱，美国持续 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 虹吸全球铜资源，短期铜重新站稳 10 万关口，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，中长 | | | | 期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 锌承压回落。企业 ...

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced high-level fluctuations with Wind All A index rising by 0.41% and a trading volume of 2.73 trillion yuan [9] - The central bank announced a 25 basis points reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technology innovation, inclusive elderly care, and carbon reduction [9][10] - The recent bull market is driven by breakthroughs in technology themes and geopolitical uncertainties, which have collectively pushed the equity market upward [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank's interest rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing capital expenditures and promoting corporate profitability [9] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [9] - The central bank's structural monetary policy tools have been optimized to include carbon reduction projects and expanded coverage for private SMEs with high R&D investments [10] Bond Market - The bond futures market saw a decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.22% and the 10-year contract down by 0.02% [10] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a net injection of 722 billion yuan, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10] - The overall bond market is expected to continue a bearish trend, influenced by the central bank's focus on reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy [10] Precious Metals - London spot gold showed strong fluctuations, while silver continued to perform robustly, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 49.7 [11] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and trade disputes, have heightened investor anxiety, keeping gold's short-term appeal strong [11] - The platinum and palladium markets are experiencing high volatility, with potential buying opportunities arising after price corrections [11]

黄金方面： 今年1月份美联储议息会议上大概率维持利率水平不变。不过下任美联储候选人人选生变。倘若最鸽派的哈赛特无缘美联储主 席，投资者需要警惕鸽派预期降温令金价承压的风险。 近期地缘政治成为市场焦点，美委冲突、格陵兰岛局势以及伊朗局势再度引起全球投资者对地缘政治的关注，特别是伊朗局势明 朗前，在避险的加持下，黄金热度难以下降。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前黄金市场多头氛围浓厚，黄金价格维持偏强运行的概率较大。 原油小时图 黄金小时图 原油方面： 原油市场陷入一场地缘博弈和基本面供给过剩交织而成"叙事之战"。此前美伊冲突有所升温带动油价冲高，不过在特朗普表态倾 向于用外交手段解决问题，以及俄罗斯总统普京从中斡旋，短期地缘有所降温令油价回落。 基本面看原油供给过剩的风险偏高，近期华盛顿官员透露，美方以5亿美元的价格出售了首批委内瑞拉的原油，后续规模有望扩 大，这无疑将加剧原油市场供给过剩的担忧。 不过好消息是，美国页岩油商发出明确信号，他们无法接受油价低于50美元，甚至是向50美元靠拢，暗示美国原油产量有望趋 稳，这有利于原油价格止跌，甚至再度冲高。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情先下后上且收较长 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Latin America and the Middle East does not strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [2] - The current methanol valuation is low, and its outlook for the next year will improve marginally, with limited downside space. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [4] - The current domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [7] - Rubber is in a seasonally weak period. Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy will be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity price expectations and pre - export rush support PVC, in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is still the main approach until there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14] - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [17] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price is expected to bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season, but there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil on dips [26] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, and the rhythm should be grasped [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, if there are no further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.52%, at 437.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil products rose 3.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.12%, at 2538.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.07%, at 3060.00 yuan/ton [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.12 million barrels to 11.72 million barrels, a 10.56% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.16 million barrels to 14.99 million barrels, a 1.06% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.08 million barrels to 6.74 million barrels, a 1.12% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.19 million barrels, an 18.21% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 7.62 million barrels, a 0.72% decrease; the total refined oil inventory increased by 2.10 million barrels to 47.25 million barrels, a 4.65% increase [1] 3.2 Polyester - Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 17 yuan/ton, southern Shandong by - 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main futures contract changed by 36.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2212 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Urea - Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 22 yuan/ton [6] - The main futures contract changed by - 19 yuan/ton, closing at 1772 yuan/ton [6] 3.4 Rubber - Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, with a technical bearish outlook. Bulls cited seasonal expectations and improved demand expectations, while bears pointed to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal weak demand [9] - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure, and it was in the pre - Spring Festival inventory production stage. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year [10] - As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons, and the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons [10] - In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1880 (- 20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was at 1885 (- 20) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at 9500 (- 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was at 11300 (- 200) yuan [11] 3.5 PVC - The PVC05 contract fell 2 yuan, closing at 4801 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4560 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 115 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (+100) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (- 20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 635 (- 23) yuan/ton [13] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 80%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 78.8%, a 0.8% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 43.9%, a 0.1% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 311,000 (- 17,000) tons, and the social inventory was 1.144 million (+30,000) tons [13] 3.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure - benzene contract was 5827 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the pure - benzene basis was - 187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7295 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton; the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a weakening of 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 157.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.75 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 38.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [16] - On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.86%, a 0.06% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 31,700 tons to 100,600 tons [16] - On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of three S products was 41.91%, a 1.02% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.40%, a 1.50% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 54.05%, a 7.34% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, unchanged [16] 3.7 Polyethylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 108 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 28 yuan/ton [19] - The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders was 29,200 tons, unchanged. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan expansion [19] 3.8 Polypropylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6565 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 14 yuan/ton [21] - The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons [21] - The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 185 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan narrowing [22] 3.9 PX - The PX03 contract rose 20 yuan, closing at 7106 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 879 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 25) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+2) [25] - In terms of PX load, China's load was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease; Asia's load was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, while overseas, Thailand's PTTG and Israel's Gadiv plants restarted [25] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 146,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 7000 tons [25] - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 331 US dollars (+6), South Korea's PX - MX was 142 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 78 US dollars (- 10) [25] 3.10 PTA - The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan, closing at 5030 yuan. The East China spot price rose 10 yuan, closing at 4970 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 42 yuan (- 2) [28] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted [28] - The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 2.005 million tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee rose 11 yuan to 314 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee fell 2 yuan to 368 yuan [28] 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan, closing at 3755 yuan. The East China spot price fell 28 yuan, closing at 3637 yuan. The basis was - 121 yuan (+11), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (- 4) [30] - On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Among them, the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol load was 80.2%, a 0.9% increase; the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol load was 71.2%, a 0.1% decrease. Tianye reduced its load in the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol segment; Chengdu Petrochemical shut down in the oil - chemical segment; overseas, a Kuwaiti plant shut down, and the US Sasol reduced its load [30] - The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55% [30] - The import arrival forecast was 148,000 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 16 - 18 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 795,000 tons, a 7000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol was - 904 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol was - 771 yuan, and the profit of coal - to - ethylene - glycol was - 5 yuan. The cost of ethylene fell to 710 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines rose to 600 yuan [30]