Group 1 - Oil and gas concept stocks strengthened, with Jerry Holdings and Intercontinental Oil rising over 7% [1] - Oil and gas resource-related ETFs increased by approximately 2% due to the rise of heavy-weight stocks [1] Group 2 - Specific ETFs showed the following performance: - Oil and Gas Resource ETF (code: 563150) at 1.100, up 0.022 (2.04%) - Oil and Gas ETF Boshi (code: 561760) at 1.107, up 0.020 (1.84%) - Oil and Gas Resource ETF (code: 159309) at 1.148, up 0.020 (1.77%) [2] - Brokerages indicate that despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term oil supply and demand structure remains favorable, maintaining a positive outlook on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector [2] - The recovery of the macro economy is expected to boost chemical demand, and in the long term, the clearing of chemical product capacity is beneficial for leading enterprises, with a positive outlook on large-scale refining, coal chemical, and ethylene profitability [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 13th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures declined; most commodity futures advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [2][9][11]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver, polysilicon and apples, while the top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil and crude oil [10][11][12]. - Silver prices may rise further if gold prices maintain a volatile and strong trend and the US dollar continues to pull back; 20 -号胶 prices are likely to maintain a bottom - volatile trend with strong elasticity but may face downward adjustment pressure; crude oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [17][26][35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 13th, China's financial futures: IC and IM both gained 1.7%; TL fell 0.3%. In commodity futures, most advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [9]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver (up 5.5% with open interest decreasing 1.6% month - on - month), polysilicon (up 3.7% with open interest increasing 2.4% month - on - month) and apples (up 3.3% with open interest up 13.0% month - on - month). The top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil (down 4.4% with open interest falling 10.6% month - on - month), fuel oil (down 3.7% with open interest increasing 20.9% month - on - month) and crude oil (down 3.7% with open interest decreasing 19.3% month - on - month) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On November 13th, silver rose 5.5% to 12,588 yuan/kg. London market supply tightness alleviated in October, with silver inventories in London vaults surging by about 54 million ounces. Spot prices are supported by capital momentum and have broken through the previous psychological threshold. Weak corporate confidence and slowing employment may lead to further strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, supporting silver prices [15][16][17]. - **TSR20**: On November 13th, TSR20 rose 1.8% to 12,400 yuan/ton. China entered the rubber - tapping suspension period in November, and RU - related themes still have speculation space. The supply - demand pattern of natural rubber has not changed significantly, but from a seasonal perspective, rubber prices may face downward adjustment pressure [24][25][26]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On November 13th, crude oil fell 3.7% to 449.5 yuan/barrel. API data showed US crude oil inventories continued to build up and refined oil inventories declined last week. OPEC revised down its global supply - demand balance forecast, while EIA indicated US crude oil production remains resilient. Oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [32][33][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the SCO Member States in Moscow from November 17 - 18, pay an official visit to Zambia from November 19 - 20, and attend the 20th G20 Summit in Johannesburg from November 21 - 23 [40]. 2.2 Industry News - The market value of A - shares held by foreign investors currently exceeds RMB 3.5 trillion, and efforts will be made to include more futures and options products in the scope of opening - up [41]. - From January to October, the cumulative trading volume and turnover of China's national futures market increased by 14.86% and 21.82% year - on - year, respectively [41].

Group 1 - The Nord Stream pipeline system was designed to transport natural gas directly from Russia to Germany, with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year, bypassing geopolitical disruptions [1] - After the pipeline was damaged in September 2022, the European energy market became volatile, leading countries like Germany to turn to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), resulting in import costs soaring by over 200% [1] - The U.S. expanded its market share, increasing LNG exports from 70 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 140 billion cubic meters by 2025, capturing nearly half of the European market [1] Group 2 - Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić predicts that Germany urgently needs cheap Russian gas to support industrial competitiveness, and if the undamaged branch of Nord Stream 2, with a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters, is restored, it could significantly alleviate Europe's energy pressure [3] - Vučić asserts that the pipeline will not be controlled by Russia but will likely be auctioned off to American investors, with Stephen Lynch already applying for permission to bid on the pipeline during Swiss bankruptcy proceedings [3] - Lynch values the pipeline at $11 billion but plans to acquire it at a low price, viewing it as leverage in U.S.-Ukraine conflict negotiations while controlling EU energy supply dynamics [3] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the Nord Stream pipeline, made of high-strength steel and precision-laid underwater, has a 30% higher pressure resistance compared to traditional land pipelines, but repairs post-damage will cost around $2 billion [5] - The predicted change in ownership will introduce an American management model, updating to a digital monitoring system that tracks gas flow in real-time, improving operational efficiency by 15% [5] - This update reflects a shift towards privatized operations, separating ownership from supply, aligning with EU gas directives to avoid Russian control [5] Group 4 - Russian officials have denied any intention to sell the pipeline, but economic pressures may lead to tacit approval of the transaction in exchange for sanctions relief [7] - Reports indicate secret negotiations between Russia and the U.S. to restore Nord Stream 2, with Lynch promoting the idea that American ownership could ensure Western oversight and maintain affordable Russian gas flow to Europe [7] - This dual objective reveals U.S. intentions to appear supportive of Europe while securing energy dominance [7] Group 5 - There are significant internal divisions within the EU regarding the restart of Nord Stream, with the German industrial sector eager for cheap gas, while political concerns about increased dependency persist [9] - A report from the Atlantic Council in July 2025 suggests that American ownership would more easily pass EU supply security tests compared to Russian gas during energy crises [9] - If ownership changes, Europe would need to purchase gas through American traders, increasing intermediary costs by 15% [9] Group 6 - The choice of high-priced American gas has led to a 5% decline in industrial output in Europe, with some companies relocating to Asia, aligning with U.S. strategies to promote LNG [11] - Russia is pivoting towards Eastern exports, with China benefiting from increased supply through the East Route pipeline, which is expected to rise from 15 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 38 billion cubic meters by 2025 [11] - The West Route project negotiations are accelerating, with an expected production of 30 billion cubic meters by 2026, emphasizing cost reductions through land-based high-pressure transmission [11] Group 7 - Negotiations regarding the pipeline's future continue, with Lynch advocating for the acquisition while German legal reforms prevent Russian takeover but not American involvement [13] - The execution of EU gas directives promoting ownership separation is pushing towards a change in ownership, with indications that Russia is preparing for repair work [13] - Vučić's timeline prediction points to late 2025 for potential ownership change, which could end the era of cheap Russian gas and place pricing mechanisms under U.S. control [13]

Group 1 - The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier in the Caribbean, under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, raises questions about the underlying geopolitical motives of the U.S. government [1][2] - Historical context shows that the U.S. has a long history of military interventions in Latin America, with nearly 400 interventions globally since 1776, 34% of which targeted Latin America and the Caribbean [2] - The USS Ford's presence is perceived as a demonstration of U.S. military power, signaling that the U.S. can still enforce its will in its "backyard" [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean is viewed as a significant threat to peace and stability in the Western Hemisphere, suggesting that non-compliant regimes may face military consequences [3] - The narrative of "fighting drugs" is seen as a facade for U.S. interventionism, with the real intent being the protection of U.S. interests and hegemony in the region [2][3] - The changing dynamics in Latin America, characterized by greater sovereignty and diverse development, challenge the effectiveness of traditional U.S. interventionist strategies [3]

Core Insights - Russia is under pressure to develop a detailed roadmap for its rare earth and critical metals industry by December 1, indicating a significant shift in the global rare earth landscape and Russia's strategic ambitions [1][12][13] Group 1: Strategic Context - The urgency of the directive reflects Russia's awareness of being marginalized in the international arena and its desire to leverage its resource advantages to navigate current geopolitical challenges [3][12] - Russia possesses 28 million tons of rare earth reserves, with the Tomtor deposit being the largest single rare earth mine globally, yet it struggles with technological challenges that hinder its ability to capitalize on these resources [5][12] Group 2: Industry Development Challenges - The Russian rare earth industry has lagged due to low technological levels and an incomplete industrial chain, with current extraction rates only a small fraction of total reserves [5][7] - High-end demand for rare earths has historically relied on imports, posing a strategic risk for Russia [5][12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Putin's goal is to establish a complete industrial chain that supports defense, technology, and manufacturing, competing against China's dominant position in the rare earth sector [7][9] - The global rare earth industry is becoming a key element in geopolitical strategy, with the U.S. and EU also striving to bolster their domestic industries to reduce reliance on China [9][12] Group 4: Future Prospects - Russia's approach may involve international cooperation, particularly with China, to overcome its technological bottlenecks and enhance its position in the global market [11][12] - The development of the rare earth industry is seen as a long-term endeavor requiring significant investment and time, with the potential to reshape global supply dynamics if successful [12][13]

Industry Overview - Taiwan's NOR Flash storage manufacturer Winbond indicated a 50% increase in NOR Flash usage due to the rising demand from AI servers transitioning from HBM3E to HBM4, with plans to raise NOR Flash prices by up to 30% in Q1 next year [3] - The AIOT sector is experiencing rapid growth, as evidenced by the performance of major domestic listed companies, indicating a clear upward trend in storage demand over the next two years [3] Advanced Manufacturing - CATL has made significant supply chain moves, including a framework agreement with Jiangyuan Technology to secure a minimum capacity of 626,000 tons and strategic investments in Tianhua New Energy to ensure lithium salt supply [7] - In October, battery production increased by 22.4% month-on-month, with utilization rates nearing 90%. CATL reported a saturated energy storage capacity with a production of approximately 180 GWh in Q3, maintaining a utilization rate above 90% [7] - The asset expenditure growth for CATL and other companies in the sector indicates a strong commitment to expanding capacity and innovation, suggesting a new cycle of prosperity for lithium batteries and related industries [7] Consumer Sector - On Running reported a Q2 net sales of 749.2 million Swiss francs, a 32% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 61.5% [9] - The company adjusted its full-year sales guidance to 2.91 billion Swiss francs, expecting a growth of at least 31% year-on-year [9] - Brooks, a professional running brand, achieved a 17% sales growth in Q3, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth, supported by strong overseas market expansion [9] Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are expected to continue their upward trend, with silver showing stronger rebounds than gold due to easing market liquidity and a decline in the US dollar index [11][12] - The increasing proportion of gold reserves held by global central banks and the net inflow of funds into physical gold ETFs reflect growing concerns over dollar credit and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - Silver's recent strong performance is attributed to its relatively low gold-silver ratio and low COMEX exchange inventories, suggesting continued strength in the silver market [12]

Supply Chain Strategy - General Motors (GM) has instructed its suppliers to remove components sourced from China from their supply chains [1] - The ultimate goal is for GM to completely move its supply chain out of China to avoid geopolitical disruptions [1] - GM has set a deadline of 2027 for some suppliers to end procurement relationships with China [1] - The directive was initially issued in 2024 and has become more urgent due to escalating US-China trade tensions [1] Leadership Change - John Roth, Cadillac Global Vice President, has been appointed as President of General Motors China [1]

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the planned visit of four members of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to Russia, which has faced strong criticism from other German political parties, labeling it as detrimental to national interests and even as "treason" [1][2] - The AfD members, including European Parliament member Neuhoff and Saxony state party chairman Urban, aim to attend a conference in Sochi discussing EU relations with BRICS countries, asserting the need to maintain communication channels [1][2] - Criticism from the Christian Social Union (CSU) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) highlights concerns that the AfD is becoming a tool for Russia's hybrid warfare against Germany and Europe, given their previous visits to Russia [1] Group 2 - Neuhoff defends the trip as an opportunity to engage in discussions about the future of EU-BRICS relations, arguing that critics lack understanding of geopolitics and are leading Germany towards marginalization [2] - Urban emphasizes that sanctions against Russia have significantly harmed Germany, and if the AfD were to assume government responsibility, they would immediately lift these sanctions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Herald Hold (00114) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from HKD 42 million to HKD 47 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to HKD 27.2 million for the same period ending September 30, 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The expected increase in profit is primarily driven by net realized and unrealized gains from trading securities amounting to approximately HKD 13 million, up from HKD 10 million for the six months ending September 30, 2024 [1] - The company also expects a one-time after-tax gain of approximately HKD 15 million from the sale of two land parcels located in Shanghai [1] Management Outlook - Despite the anticipated strong performance in the first half of the fiscal year, management expresses significant concern regarding the company's performance in the second half of the fiscal year [1] - This cautious outlook is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased competitive pricing pressures within the industry [1]