Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the short - term price may be mainly stable, with a possible weak and stable operation in the short term. The supply increase is limited due to strict safety inspections, demand is stable but downstream's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited, and inventory has decreased slightly [3]. - For coke, the short - term price may remain stable. The inventory level of coke at coking enterprises is not high, some enterprises have increased production - limiting willingness, and the pre - holiday procurement enthusiasm of steel mills has increased, but the terminal demand is weak [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Strict safety inspections limit supply growth, downstream demand is stable, coal mine shipments are smooth, and short - term coal prices may be stable; neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1285, basis is 88.5, spot premium over futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week; bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term raw material demand remains high, but the steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may run weakly and stably [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke supply is stable, coking enterprises maintain normal production, but profits are under pressure due to rising raw material coal prices; neutral [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1610, basis is - 82.5, spot discount to futures; bearish [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [7]. - Main position: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [7]. - Expectation: The inventory level of coke at coking enterprises is not high, some enterprises have increased production - limiting willingness, and the pre - holiday procurement enthusiasm of steel mills has increased. It is expected that the short - term coke price may remain stable [6]. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on September 25, 2025, including the prices and price changes of various types of coking coal at different ports [10]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily arbitrage data for various futures commodities on September 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of these commodities. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis for power coal on September 26, 2025, was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 25, 24, and 23, and - 96.4 yuan/ton on September 22. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented, along with the price ratios. For example, on September 26, the basis of INE crude oil was 13.13 yuan/ton, and the price ratio was 0.1417 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. For instance, on September 26, the basis of rubber was - 770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2261 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of rebar was 126.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented. On September 26, the basis of copper was 40 yuan/ton [28]. London Market - For LME non - ferrous metals on September 26, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (38.91), and the import profit and loss was (452.74) [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 125 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 33 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the basis of CSI 300 was 25.05 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next - month vs current - month, next - quarter vs current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.0 [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward, mainly following the rise in oil prices. In the short - term, Shandong prices are firm, while East China has high supply pressure and is expected to remain weak overall. The external market is expected to be volatile and weak under the expectations of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, despite the seasonal increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, in the spot market, the price of South China LPG increased from 4640 to 4650 (+50), East China from 4385 to 4393 (+6), and Shandong from 4550 to 4580 (+10). The price of ether - post carbon four remained at 4620. The paper import profit increased by 42, and the main contract basis decreased by 17 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4373 (-42), Shandong at 4570 (+40), and South China at 4640 (-10). The basis was 103 (+113), the 10 - 11 spread was 148 (+83), and the 11 - 12 spread was 79 (+19). The number of warehouse receipts was 14327 (+1353) [1]. - **External Market**: The FEI monthly spread dropped 2.5 to - 8.5 dollars, and the CP monthly spread rose 1.5 to - 13 dollars. The FEI - CP spread was 1 (-5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. 3.2 Weekly Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Before the holiday, upstream inventory was cleared, arrivals decreased, propane chemical demand increased, and combustion demand replenished stocks. The PDH operating rate was 69.48% (+4.34 percentage points), and it is expected to rise next week [1]. - **External Market**: Although there is a seasonal increase, under the expectations of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, it is expected to be volatile and weak overall [1]. 3.3 Daily Changes - The basis was 103 (+96), and the 10 - 11 spread was 35 (+148). As of 9:00 am, FEI and CP c1 fluctuated, at 548 (-2) and 545 (+1) respectively [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On September 25, 2025, the main contract of iron ore futures rose slightly by 0.25%. The current fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. Stable steel - mill production supports demand, but accumulated contradictions and high inventory in the downstream steel market suppress the upward space. Coupled with the lack of clear trend guidance in technical aspects, the short - term price is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 25, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated. It adjusted to a minimum of 799.5 points, reached a maximum of 808 points, and closed at 805.5 points. The trading volume was 191,200 lots, a decrease of 11,200 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 529,700 lots, a decrease of 9,319 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 contracts of iron ore futures showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term strength and far - term weakness. All contracts generally rose throughout the day, with an increase ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 points. The total open interest of the variety was 848,687 lots, a decrease of 8,028 lots from the previous trading day, and the i2601 contract had the largest decrease in open interest, with a reduction of 9,319 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main contract iron ore i2601 fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 27.2 yuan/ton, a minimum of 24.8 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton on the day [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 2,000 lots, a minimum of 1,700 lots, and 2,000 lots on the day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In the Shandong market, the spot price of imported iron ore rose slightly, but the trading volume was low. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed, with a general market trading atmosphere. In the Tianjin market, the price of imported iron ore fluctuated slightly. The price difference between PB powder and lump ore shrank by 10 yuan/wet ton to 132 yuan/wet ton. Steel mills' procurement sentiment was cautious, and they mainly purchased on dips [9]. - **Supply Side**: The sinter production of 54 steel mills nationwide decreased, but the total inventory of imported sinter powder increased month - on - month, indicating overall stable supply. The inventory at Shandong ports increased slightly, and the port throughput decreased due to seasonal factors. However, the medium - grade powder resources at Tianjin Port decreased, and high - grade powder was supplemented, showing a differentiated supply structure [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market has a high supply, and there is a possibility of price cuts. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the peak season from September to October, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease [2]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The current oil market shows a game between weak macro - expectations and tight spot fundamentals. It is likely to operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to focus on unilateral segment operations [24]. - **Methanol Industry**: The port inventory has decreased. The supply in the inland is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral, and the futures price fluctuates between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations [29]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures market shows a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to the deepening contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Although the cost provides some support, it is difficult to reverse the market downturn [37]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: PP production has decreased recently, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a high point, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory has decreased. The pressure of inventory accumulation for 01 contracts is relatively large, which limits the upward space [43]. - **Polyester Industry**: PX supply increases, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand is expected to be weak. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and the short - term basis is supported. Ethylene glycol supply - demand is gradually weakening. Short - fiber support is strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip supply - demand is still loose [46]. - **Styrene Industry**: The supply of pure benzene is loose, and the demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene is relatively loose, and the port inventory has accumulated, so the price may be under pressure [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged, while PVC prices showed a slight increase. The futures prices of some contracts decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 5%. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC generally increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the inventory in some areas decreased. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly, and the total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 26th, Brent crude oil rose by 0.16%, WTI rose by 0.45%, and SC fell by 1.55%. The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [24]. - **Market Logic**: The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks and tight supply to concerns about the macro - economy. The strong US economic data and the expected resumption of crude oil supply in the Kurdish region of Iraq put pressure on oil prices, while the supply interruption concerns caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the price [24]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some methanol futures contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices of some regions decreased slightly [29]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, mainly due to increased demand for pick - up and a significant decrease in the unloading volume of imported ships [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply in the inland is at a high level, and the demand is affected by the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral [29]. Urea Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures prices of urea showed a weak and volatile pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [34]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The prices of upstream raw materials were relatively stable, and the prices of downstream products were mostly unchanged. The cross - regional spreads and basis differences changed to some extent [35][36][37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea was at a high level, the agricultural demand was in the off - season, and the industrial demand was dragged down by the decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate [37]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some polyolefin futures contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads between some contracts decreased significantly [43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rates also increased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: On September 25th, the prices of some polyester products changed. The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and PX also fluctuated. The spreads and processing fees of related products changed [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PX increased, the supply of PTA was expected to shrink, ethylene glycol supply - demand was gradually weakening, short - fiber supply was at a high level, and bottle - chip supply - demand was still loose [46]. Styrene Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of upstream raw materials and styrene - related products changed to some extent. The cash flows of some products improved [49][50][51]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the styrene inventory increased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene was loose, and the demand support was limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene was relatively loose, and the port inventory had accumulated [53].

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for September 26, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the base price of thermal coal remained at -95.4 yuan/ton (except -96.4 yuan/ton on September 22 and -97.4 yuan/ton on September 19), and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with specific values varying each day [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with values changing daily [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [11] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price**: Base price data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Price**: Domestic base price data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [28] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 25, 2025 are provided [32] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: Base price data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [36] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: Base price data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter spreads, are presented [47]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price Changes**: - **Daily Changes**: On Thursday, the low - end price in East China was 4387 (+0), in Shandong was 4570 (+20), and in South China was 4600 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4620 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 7 (-55) and a 10 - 11 month spread of 113 (+33). FEI and CP c1 decreased to 550 (-3) and 544 (-3) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained unchanged at 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread dropped to -14.5 dollars (-3.5) [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6). The external market price increased. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly: PG - CP to 75 (-3); PG - FEI to 67.6 (-9.3). The FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Market Conditions**: - **Supply and Demand**: Incoming shipments decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand decreased, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both declined [1]. - **Profitability**: The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. - **Shipping and Spreads**: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest rates from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha spread strengthened [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market shows a slightly bullish trend in the main contract, with decreasing positions, spot discounts, and weakening basis. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market has a slightly bullish main contract, decreasing positions, spot premiums, and strengthening basis. It is advisable to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum market has a main contract that rises and then retraces, increasing positions, spot premiums, and weakening basis. It is suggested to go long on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,765 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,942 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the cast - aluminum alloy main contract is 20,385 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai aluminum previous 20 - net position is - 9,281 hands, down 3024 hands; the LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, up 3300 tons; the spread between the main and the second - continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum is - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,905 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast - aluminum alloy is 515 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 37 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Demand**: Alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - **Trade**: China's import of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons, up 12115.77 tons; the export is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons; the export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons; the import is 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of electrolytic aluminum is 217,260.71 tons, down 30322.61 tons; the production of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 59.80 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period is 127,734 tons, down 765 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 163.50 million tons, up 9.90 million tons; the production of automobiles is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.46%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.04%, down 0.14%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV is 10.83%, up 0.0014% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, down 0.0424 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Central Bank Statements**: FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor are slowing, and inflation is lower than expected, suggesting further rate cuts [2]. - **Mining Incident**: Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide on September 8, leading to casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine is suspended, with potential production delays in Q4 2025 and 2026 [2]. - **Trade Policy**: Chinese Premier Li Qiang states that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, and hopes that the EU will keep trade and investment markets open and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2]. 3.8 Key Points of Different Aluminum Products - **Alumina**: The main contract is oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is slightly increasing, but the demand boost is less than the supply growth. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main contract is oscillating bullishly, with decreasing positions and strengthening basis. The supply is stable, and the demand is boosted. The option market is bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Cast - Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract rises and then retraces, with increasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand is slightly recovering but still weak. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The bond market sentiment is fragile, and the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The dollar index is 97.85, with a day - on - day increase of 0.62 and a growth rate of 0.64%. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1193, with a day - on - day increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.76%. DR007 is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.11 and a growth rate of 7.52%. R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.82%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.82% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple charts related to the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc. [15][17][19] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds, as well as the Shibor interest rate trend and the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [28][34]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [32][36][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][42][50]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report offers charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [52][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [59][61]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][72]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily data of various futures, including price differences, spreads, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and positions. They also show the spot prices and freight rates in related industries, aiming to help investors understand the market trends and price relationships of different futures and related products. 3. Summary by Category **Stock Index Futures** - **Price Differences**: For different stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, the current values, changes compared to the previous day, and historical percentile data of price differences (including term - current price differences and inter - term price differences) are provided. For example, the IF term - current price difference is - 35.98, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 18.80% and a full - history percentile of 9.10% [1]. - **Inter - term Spreads**: The inter - term spreads (e.g., next month - current month, quarterly month - current month) of various stock index futures are reported, along with their changes and historical percentile data. For instance, the next month - current month spread of IF is - 14.80, with a change of - 1.80, a historical 1 - year percentile of 28.60%, and a full - history percentile of 24.50% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios between different stock index futures (e.g., CSI 500/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300) are presented, including their current values, changes, and historical percentile data. For example, the CSI 500/SSE 50 ratio is 5.4596, with a change of - 0.0130, a full - history percentile of 98.30%, and a historical 1 - year percentile of 75.20% [1]. **Bond Futures** - **IRR and Basis**: The implied repo rate (IRR) and basis data of different bond futures (such as TF, T, TL, TS) are provided, including their current values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical percentile data. For example, the TF basis is 1.6050, with a change of - 0.0210 and a historical percentile of 41.30% [2]. - **Inter - term Spreads**: The inter - term spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter, next quarter - subsequent quarter) of various bond futures are reported, along with their changes and historical percentile data. For instance, the current quarter - next quarter spread of TF is 0.1200, with a change of 0.0000 and a historical percentile of 42.40% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T) are presented, including their current values, changes, and historical percentile data. For example, the TS - TF spread is - 3.2430, with a change of 0.0360 and a historical percentile of 12.70% [2]. **Precious Metals** - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures (AU2512, AG2512, COMEX gold, COMEX silver) and spot prices (London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D) are reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 860.00 yuan/gram on September 24, up 4.56 yuan or 0.53% from the previous day [4]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis between spot and futures prices and the ratios between different precious metals are presented, including their current values, changes, and percentage changes. For instance, the gold TD - Shanghai gold futures basis is - 3.73, up 2.13 from the previous value, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 22.40% [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The current values, changes, and percentage changes of relevant interest rates (10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield) and exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) are reported. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.16%, up 0.04 percentage points or 1.0% from the previous day [4]. - **Inventories and Positions**: The inventory data of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (gold and silver) and the positions of ETFs are provided, including their current values, changes, and percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 60543 kilograms, up 1530 kilograms or 2.59% from the previous day [4]. **Container Shipping Industry** - **Spot Freight Rates**: The spot freight rates of different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route (MAERSK, CMA, MSC, etc.) are reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the MAERSK freight rate is 1576 US dollars/FEU on September 22, up 40 US dollars or 2.60% from the previous day [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The settlement price indexes of container shipping (SCFIS for European and US - West routes, SCFI comprehensive index, etc.) are presented, including their changes and percentage changes. For instance, the SCFIS (European route) index is 1254.92 points on September 22, down 185.3 points or - 12.87% from September 15 [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The futures prices of container shipping (EC2602, EC2506, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the EC2602 futures price is 1588.1 on September 24, up 52.5 or 3.42% from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The supply of global container shipping capacity, port - related indicators (port punctuality rate, port berthing situation in Shanghai), monthly export volume, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone composite PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI) are provided, including their环比 changes and percentage changes. For example, the port punctuality rate in Shanghai in August is 18.31%, down 14.27 percentage points or - 43.80% from July [6].