Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.7% in June, driven by rising core goods prices, indicates a potential inflation spiral influenced by tariffs, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Tariff-sensitive goods have seen significant price increases, with clothing prices rising 0.4%, home goods up 1%, and toys soaring 1.8% [2]. - The "import-sensitive CPI" indicator constructed by CITIC Securities shows a rise from 0.03% to 0.11%, indicating that tariff costs are accelerating to consumers [2][3]. - The mechanism by which tariffs raise inflation is multifaceted, with immediate impacts on import prices and potential long-term effects on supply chain restructuring [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is at a crossroads, facing internal disagreements on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some officials warning that increased tariffs could lead to more persistent inflation [4]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for four consecutive meetings, with tariff-related inflation influencing future rate decisions [3][4]. - Political pressures are complicating the Fed's decision-making, as the President has publicly called for immediate rate cuts, challenging the Fed's independence [4]. Group 3: Future Policy Concerns - The U.S. economy is navigating between "temporary inflation" and "spiral inflation," with key upcoming events including the August 1 tariff exemptions deadline and the July-August CPI data release [6]. - If tariffs are enacted without agreements, core commodity inflation could rise by 0.55%, potentially pushing PCE inflation to 3.1% by year-end [8]. - The decline in real wages and rising prices may lead to increased unemployment rates, further impacting consumer spending [8].

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Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Impact - The World Trade Organization predicts that global goods trade will experience strong growth in Q1 due to expectations of increased U.S. tariffs, but growth is expected to slow down as higher tariffs are implemented [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding market expectations, marking the largest increase since February. The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.9% year-on-year [1] - Climate change is causing extreme heat in multiple countries, leading to increased cases of heatstroke, reduced agricultural output, and frequent forest fires, which threaten human health and various socio-economic sectors [1] Group 2: International Relations and Sanctions - The EU foreign ministers' meeting failed to reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on Russian energy revenues [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney indicated that there is currently "not much evidence" that the U.S. is willing to reach an agreement without imposing some tariffs, suggesting that most countries may have to accept a baseline tariff from the U.S. [2] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio agreed with foreign ministers from the UK, France, and Germany to set the end of August as the deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, or else sanctions will be reinstated [3] Group 3: Financial Markets and Interest Rates - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached over 1.59%, the highest since October 2008, driven by expectations of fiscal expansion following the upcoming Senate elections [3] - The U.S. Treasury yields saw increases across various maturities, with the 10-year yield rising by 4.80 basis points to 4.481% [5] Group 4: Commodity Markets - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day [4]

当地时间7月15日，美股市场三大指数高开低走，尾盘加速下跌，道琼斯工业指数跌近1%，大跌逾400 点。大型科技股多数上涨，英伟达涨超4%，再创历史新高。热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙 指数上涨2.76%。 当地时间7月15日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国6月消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，高于市 场预期，为2月以来最大同比涨幅。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普15日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文宣布，美国将对所有进口的印度 尼西亚商品征收19%的关税，而美国对印尼的出口将享受免关税和非关税壁垒待遇。 中国资产大涨 当地时间7月15日，美股三大指数高开低走。截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌0.98%，纳斯达克指数上 涨0.18%，标普500指数下跌0.4%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 44023.29 | 20677.80 | 6243.76 | | -436.36 -0.98% +37.47 +0.18% -24.80 -0.40% | | | | 多伦多300 | 巴西IBOVESPA | 墨西哥MXX | | 27054.14 | 1 ...

美国总统特朗普在当地时间周二表示，很可能在本月底前对进口药品加征关税，半导体关税也将同步推 进，这些措施或与8月1日实施的全面"对等"关税同时生效。 "大概本月底就会启动，我们先设定较低税率，给制药公司一年左右时间回迁生产，之后会大幅提高关 税。"特朗普在参加匹兹堡人工智能峰会后返程途中对记者表示。 特朗普周二预测在8月1日对等关税生效前，还可能达成"两到三个"贸易协议，其中与印度的协议可能性 最大。 他透露美国正与五六个国家进行实质性磋商，但强调不一定会达成完整协议："可以说印度最有可能， 但总体而言我对通知函的效果非常满意。" 对于未获得定制税率的小型经济体，特朗普表示可能统一征收"略高于10%"的标准关税。 周二稍早，面临30%关税的欧盟已确定本周与美国谈判代表会晤。 他同时透露半导体关税的时间表"与此类似"，且芯片征税"操作更简单"，但未提供具体细节。 在本月早些时候的内阁会议上，特朗普曾宣布计划未来数周对铜征收50%关税，并预计药品关税最终将 高达200%。根据1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条款，政府已启动药品进口威胁国家安全的调查。 这项政策将立即冲击礼来公司（Eli Lilly & Co.）、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation has rebounded as June CPI year-on-year growth slightly increased to 2.7%, with core CPI rising to 2.9% [1][2][12] Inflation Components - Energy prices have shown a significant recovery, with the energy CPI year-on-year growth recorded at -0.8%, a substantial increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Gasoline prices saw a reduced decline of 3.7 percentage points to -8.3%, while electricity prices rose by 1.3 percentage points to 5.8% [4][12] - Core goods CPI year-on-year growth increased to 0.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices in furniture, clothing, and used cars, indicating that companies are passing tariff costs onto consumers [5][8] Service Inflation - Core service inflation remained stable, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month. Housing inflation was stable, with owner-equivalent rent growth at 4.2% and rent growth at 3.8% [9] Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations have decreased, with the one-year expectation dropping to 5%, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points, while the five-year expectation fell to 4% [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index declined. The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has slightly decreased, but the market still anticipates two rate cuts within the year, with the earliest expected in September [12][17]

Group 1 - President Trump is likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by the end of the month, with initial lower rates followed by significant increases after a year [1] - The proposed tariffs could impact pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly (LLY.US), Merck (MRK.US), and Pfizer (PFE.US), potentially raising drug costs for American consumers [2] - The semiconductor tariffs are expected to affect major companies such as Apple (AAPL.US) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US), impacting their popular products like laptops and smartphones [2] Group 2 - Trump is negotiating with about five to six countries, aiming for trade agreements rather than solely relying on tariff regulations [3] - A standard tariff rate slightly above 10% may be applied to smaller countries that do not receive special exemptions [3] - The EU representatives are set to meet with U.S. negotiators amid the pressure of a 30% tariff, while some countries are showing willingness to open trade [3]

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为774.92元/克，下跌0.42%。 国际黄金价格报3337.1美元/盎司，上涨0.01%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 关税政策 特朗普政府的关税政策是金价波动重要驱动因素。他威胁对欧盟、墨西哥等征收高额关税，引发市场对 全球贸易格局担忧。欧盟准备报复性关税，关税升温或加剧通胀，利好黄金。但短期内市场观望情绪使 金价承压，投资者等待政策细节和经济数据明确方向。当地时间周二晚，特朗普称将对小国发关税信 函，税率或略高于10%，为金价提供避险支撑。 通胀数据与美联储政策 美国6月CPI环比涨幅为1月以来最大，核心CPI年化通胀率上升，市场对美联储降息预期略有调整，年 底前降息约44个基点，9月降息概率降至53%。鲍威尔对通胀警惕，意味着美联储降息或谨慎。通胀数 据温和上升未超预期，使美元指数创近三周新高，美债收益率升至6周高位，打压金价，但市场认为美 元上涨可能是技术性调整，黄金仍有回暖空间。 市场情绪与技术面 黄金市场多空交织，短期波动频繁。技术面显示，关键点位如3375美元构成强压，多次冲击未破；3330 - 3350美元区间是重要支撑 ...

Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year for the first half of the year [1] - Industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June [1] - Fixed asset investment nationwide grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June [1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Regulatory Developments - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced the initiation of the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, with 55 varieties included [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a meeting to enhance regulatory enforcement in the live e-commerce sector [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on the revision of safety technical specifications for mobile power supplies [1] - A new restricted technology item related to battery cathode material preparation has been added to the "Directory of Technologies Prohibited from Export" [1] Corporate Announcements - Nvidia will restart the supply of H20 chips to China, with new B series chips expected to be launched within the year [2] - Pop Mart anticipates a profit increase of no less than 350% year-on-year for the first half of the year [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit increase of 53%-87% for the first half of the year [2] - China Galaxy expects a net profit of 6.4 billion to 6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%-55% [2] - Jilin Permanent Magnet anticipates a net profit increase of 151%-180% year-on-year for the first half of the year [2] - Geely Holding Group announced a merger agreement with Zeekr Technology, acquiring all remaining shares [2] - Yangdian Technology announced that Hantang Cloud Intelligence will gain control of the company [2] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.18% reaching a new closing high, while the Dow fell by 0.98% and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.4% [3] - Chip stocks rose, with Nvidia increasing by over 4% [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.77% [3]

宏观扰动减少，市场静候美联储九月降息 金十期货特约光大期货点评：7月15日，COMEX黄金价格下跌0.85%至3330.50美元/盎司，沪金主连下 跌0.42%至774.92元/克。 1. 关税方面，美财长表示无需担忧美中暂停加征部分关税截止日期，双方谈判"态势良好"。 2. 降息方面，美联储柯林斯表示关税将在下半年推动通胀上升，核心通胀率预计到年底将维持在约 3%；巴尔金认为关税将带来更多的物价压力，但是物价压力不会像2022年那么显著。最新CME"美联储 观察"数据显示，7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%，到9月维持利率不变 的概率为45.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为53.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.4%。 3. 综合而言，随着贸易谈判逐渐展开，市场对关税政策带来的通胀担忧正在减弱，盘面处于整理阶段， 交易者静候美联储九月降息带来的提振作用。 ...