Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The spot basis of PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the spot price is expected to move sideways in the short term. The continuous low processing margin has led to increased changes in PTA plants recently, but the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season [5]. - MEG: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase significantly next Monday, but the increase in port inventory is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is basically balanced in the medium and short term, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No information is provided in the content. 2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, a small number of polyester factories made bids, and an individual mainstream supplier sold goods. The August goods were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, and the goods for late September were traded around 09 + 5. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 18 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4670, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 14, with the futures price at a discount [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA plants is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: Mainstream suppliers have been continuously selling goods this week, and the spot basis is running weakly. However, due to the continuous low processing margin, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. In terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will move sideways in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated little during the day, and the spot was traded at a premium of 70 - 79 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. The negotiation in the market was stalemate. In the US dollar market, the price center of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level, and the recent mainstream trading of vessel cargoes was around 520 - 524 US dollars/ton, with traders' buying moderately following up [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4456, and the basis of the 09 contract is 72, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing [7]. - **Expectation**: The warehousing of ethylene glycol vessels was smooth last week, and it is expected that the visible inventory will increase significantly next Monday. However, the increase in port inventory is not sustainable, and the arrival volume of foreign vessels will decrease around the middle of the month. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is basically balanced in the medium and short term, and the inventory in the main port trade tanks is low. As time goes by, the demand support will gradually strengthen. It is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong [6]. 3.今日关注 No information is provided in the content. 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It details the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Price - related Data**: There are charts and data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads from 2019 - 2025 [14][16][17][19]. - **Inventory Analysis Data**: There are charts and data on the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers from 2020 - 2025 [40][41][43]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rate Data**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][52][54][56]. - **Profit - related Data**: There are charts and data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins, and polyester fiber production margins from 2022 - 2025 [59][62][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential production cuts in some surveyed areas, possible poor quality of new - season jujubes, and rising spot prices. Negative factors are high inventory, a consumption off - season in August, and a likely normal but relatively small - yield year. The market is in the jujube expansion period in Xinjiang, and attention should be paid to fruit - setting and weather in the production areas, as well as sales volume and price in the sales areas. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, and go long on the 09 contract and short on the 01 contract for inter - month trading [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Spot Prices (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main production areas is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction prices in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively [6]. Spot Prices (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, the arrival volume has doubled compared to last week. The finished product price has increased by 0.30 yuan/kg week - on - week, and the daily average transaction is 3 - 40% of the arrival volume. The grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 11.50 yuan/kg, special grade is 9.50 - 10.80 yuan/kg, first - grade is 9.00 - 9.50 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.80 - 8.20 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.50 yuan/kg [10]. Spot Prices (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable week - on - week. The price difference between special grade and first - grade is 0.92 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from last week, and the difference between first - grade and second - grade is 1.3 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from last week [13]. Sample Point Weekly Inventory - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62% [16]. Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main production areas is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the first - grade finished product price in the Hebei sales area is 9.00 - 9.50 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 400 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 2.42 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg from last week [19]. Futures - Spot Basis (Special Grade, First Grade) - The jujube futures price has weakened, the spot price is stable, and the futures - spot basis has strengthened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou is at a discount of 1040 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22]. Contract Price Difference - The change in the 1 - 5 month spread has narrowed, with a discount of 175 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread has a premium of 1330 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread fluctuates, with a discount of 1155 yuan/ton. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is considered for the 9 - 1 month spread [25]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 8, the number of registered jujube warehouse receipts is 9214, and the number of valid forecasts is 1705, totaling 10919 [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of PTA are acceptable, but the external market fluctuates greatly, and the valuation drive is weak, with the technical side showing range - bound fluctuations. The cost of crude oil has been falling continuously, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the range. TA processing fees continue to weaken, and the losses of downstream products have improved. It is recommended to focus on trading in the 4600 - 4800 range of the 2601 contract [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.10%, a decrease of 3.57 percentage points from the previous week and 2.26 percentage points from the same period last year, at a neutral level in the same period. Multiple sets of equipment in the East China region had short - term outages or maintenance, and some enterprises reduced their loads due to efficiency issues, leading to a decrease in the operating rate [4][18] - Last week, PTA production was 136,840 tons, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week and an increase of 1.66% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 14,130 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.61%. With the gradual increase in domestic self - sufficiency, imports are relatively low and can be basically ignored [22] Demand - In July 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 5.9785 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year increase of 8.78%. Last week, the average polyester operating rate was 86.21%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week and 2.08 percentage points from the same period last year, generally at a neutral level in the same period [24] - Last week, the weekly output of the polyester industry was 1.5137 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 10.29%. As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Downstream texturing and terminal weaving factories have a strong cautious and wait - and - see attitude, mainly consuming their previous raw material inventories. The sales data of polyester filament have been in a sluggish state [4][26] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 1.8568 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.90%. From January to June, the cumulative export value of textiles was 143 million US dollars, the same as the same period last year [45] Inventory - According to Longzhong Information statistics, last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 3.7315 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32%. The PTA factory inventory was 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous week and 0.15 days from the same period last year [49] - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 7.3 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous week and a decrease of 0.81 days from the same period last year [51] Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread remained stable from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly from the previous week and was high compared to the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread showed a flat - water structure [11] - The 9 - 1 spread decreased from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year. The basis fluctuated and was weak compared to the same period last year [14] Valuation - The PTA spot processing fee continued to decline from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year [70] - The PTA futures disk processing fee decreased slightly from the previous week and was low compared to the same period last year [73]

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Feed Weekly Report: Brazilian Premiums Rising Continuously, Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Prices May Fluctuate Strongly" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current growth of US soybeans is good, but the rainfall in the eastern part of the Corn Belt and the northern part of the Great Plains in the next two weeks may affect soybean growth [3]. - It is currently the peak season for Brazilian soybean exports, and Brazilian soybean premiums are continuously rising and are currently at a historical high [3]. - Domestic oil mills' purchasing progress for the fourth quarter is still slow, and the market expects a supply gap. This week, there was a large - volume transaction of the far - month basis of soybean meal. The long - term impact of the pig industry's anti - involution on soybean meal demand also needs attention [3]. - Against the background of an expected supply gap of imported soybeans in the domestic market in the fourth quarter, domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - As of August 3, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, which was the same as the market expectation, lower than last week's 70% and last year's 68% [3]. - The Brazilian soybean premium is rising and is at a historical high [3]. - Domestic oil mills' purchasing for the fourth quarter is slow, and there are expectations of a supply gap. The far - month basis of soybean meal had large - volume transactions this week. The long - term impact of the pig industry's anti - involution on soybean meal demand needs attention [3]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the expected supply gap in the fourth quarter [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - For unilateral trading, the support level of soybean meal 2601 can be referenced at 3000. For options, one can go long on volatility [5]. - For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see for now [5]. - In the outlook, factors to watch include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal demand, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly due to market concerns about a shortage of soybeans in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [14]. - The July USDA report was slightly bearish. It lowered the export forecast of US soybeans for the 25/26 season and raised the domestic crushing volume. The reduction in exports was higher than the increase in crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [14]. - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is advisable to wait and see [18]. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is advisable to wait and see [21]. Supply Side - As of July 31, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 467,842 tons [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly US soybean crushing profit was $2.71 per bushel, a 1.88% increase from the previous week and a 19.58% decrease from the same period last year [36]. - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase from June 2024. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand Side - The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig self - breeding and外购 profits, white - feather broiler and laying - hen breeding profits, but no specific demand - related conclusions are drawn [54][63] Inventory - As of August 1, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5559 million tons, a 1.55% increase from last week and a 1.74% decrease from last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a 0.14% decrease from last week and a 26.24% decrease from last year [70]. - As of August 8, the physical inventory days of domestic feed mills' soybean meal were 8.37 days, a 3.77% increase from August 1 and a 14.97% increase from the same period last year [73]. - As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last week. The unexecuted contracts were 46,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from last week [75]

工业刚需托底盘面 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏弱。现货市场及交投情绪疲软，受出口消息的 影响，大颗粒小颗粒价格走势背离。基本面来看，供应端有小幅减产预期，近 期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，减产占比低，目前暂不能改变供应过剩格 局，需求端，农业需求零星拿货为主，复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计将 持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，后期对尿素需求增加，但目前市场情绪均不高， 工厂以适量拿货为主，预售单的情况下，不急于原料的采购，并且秋季复合肥 以高磷复合肥为主。本期装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，出口消息扰动盘 面价格波动，但数据不及预期，行情下挫。目前下游普遍观望，情绪跟进较为 谨慎，并且复合肥工厂后期预计不会集中拿货了，短期偏空震荡为主，但后续 依然有工业需求的托底，后续行情下方空间有限。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 1400 1800 2200 2600 3000 3400 山东尿素市场主流价 ...

（责任编辑：张海蛟） 中国经济网北京5月23日讯 今日，上海期货交易所日间盘黄金期货主力合约震荡收高，成交放大，持仓 减少。主力2508合约收报780.10元，涨0.10%或0.78元;成交量为330152手;持仓为220512手，持仓减少 3541手。 隔夜，COMEX黄金期货收跌0.56%，报3295.1美元/盎司。 ...

隔夜，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌14美分，收于每桶66.38美元，跌幅为0.21%。 中国经济网北京7月17日讯 今日，上海国际能源交易中心日间盘原油期货主力合约震荡收跌，成交下 降，持仓减少。主力2508合约收报516.8元，跌0.08%或0.4元;成交量为86327手;持仓为12929手，日盘持 仓减少2032手。 （责任编辑：张海蛟） ...

裁以及欧佩克及其限产同盟国增产影响的不确定性之际，欧美原油期货在波动交易中连续第六个交易 日收跌。基本面没有预期外的消息，预计PX偏弱运行，PTA偏弱运行，PR偏弱运行。（PX观点评 分：-1，PTA观点评分：-1，PR观点评分：-1）。 免责声明： 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不 保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供 参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/8 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/8/7 | 美元/桶 | 63.88 | 64.35 | -0.73% | | 上 | 期货结算 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Weak trend, hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread [2][9] - PTA: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low, weak unilateral trend [2][9] - MEG: Go long on MEG and short PTA/PX [2][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX supply - demand is marginally weak due to potential PTA unplanned maintenance reducing demand [9] - PTA has sufficient spot supply with weak basis, and low processing fees may lead to unplanned changes in operation rates. Current supply - demand is weak on both sides [9] - MEG may see a decline in imports in September due to overseas maintenance plans. It's stronger than PTA/PX, and traders focus on basis long - spread and calendar spread short - spread positions [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On August 7, PX price fell following the decline in upstream crude oil and naphtha. The PX - naphtha spread widened. There were bids and offers but no deals [5][6] - **PTA**: A 120 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted. The PTA operation rate was around 76.2% on Thursday, and about 82.0% calculated by another method [6] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi started maintenance for about 20 days. The overall operation rate in mainland China was 68.40% (down 0.6% from the previous period) [6][7] - **Polyester**: The overall polyester operation rate in mainland China recovered to around 88.8%. The sales of polyester filaments and staple fibers on the 7th were weak [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - PTA trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - MEG trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [8] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread as supply - demand remains weak [9] - **PTA**: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low. The unilateral price trend is weak due to current supply - demand situation [9] - **MEG**: Go long on MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the contract roll - over [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Natural Rubber Morning Report dated August 7, 2025, prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The market is dominated by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with supply increasing, spot being strong, and domestic inventories starting to rise. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The basis is - 995 with a spot price of 14500, which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao's inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is running below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, also neutral. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. The market is sentiment - driven for short - term trading [6] Fundamentals Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. Tire production is at a record high for the same period, but tire industry exports are falling [6][8][31] - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 6, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [10] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [16][19] - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [22] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti - involution in the domestic market [8] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, and Qingdao area inventory has not seasonally decreased [8] Basis - The spot price is 14500, and the basis is - 995, which is bearish [6]