交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 行情回顾 30年期、10年期、5年期与2年期主力合约行情要素表 | 期货合约 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | CTD券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 108.925 | +0.17% | 8.87万 | 293116 | 4332 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.140 | +0.08% | 7.90万 | 240303 | 2851 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.452 | +0.02% | 5.55万 | 188500 | -14 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the central bank are aimed at stabilizing growth and market expectations, with significant implications for the banking sector and liquidity management [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - On May 7, the central bank announced a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term low-cost funds [1]. - The central bank also lowered the policy interest rate by 10 basis points, with the 7-day reverse repo rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, and the 1-year LPR adjusted from 3.1% to 3% [1]. - State-owned banks collectively reduced deposit rates, with the 1-year fixed deposit rate lowered by 15 basis points to around 1.5% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the "double cut," the overall funding environment remained loose, with overnight rates declining from a range of 1.55%-1.65% to 1.45%-1.55% [2]. - The 1-year deposit rates for state-owned banks fell from approximately 1.75% to around 1.65%, but concerns over upcoming maturity pressures led to a rebound in rates above 1.7% [2]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Liquidity and Stability - The short-term funding and deposit rates did not align quickly with the policy rates due to the central bank's cautious liquidity management and potential credit weakness in May [3]. - Banks are focusing on managing liability duration to mitigate interest rate risks, leading to a decrease in overall stability of bank liabilities [3]. - A record high of 4.1 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit is set to mature in June, prompting banks to absorb deposits in May to alleviate pressure [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - Major insurance companies are increasingly establishing private equity funds to explore new forms of equity investment and secondary market stock investment, with China Pacific Insurance recently launching two funds totaling 50 billion yuan [1][2]. - The establishment of these funds is supported by recent policies aimed at encouraging long-term capital market participation, which is expected to enhance the investment structure of insurance companies and solidify their dividend bases [2]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened in May 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 22.86%, indicating a growing interest in the market, driven by favorable monetary policies [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices saw increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.42% during the week [9]. - The non-bank financial sector, particularly the multi-financial index, experienced significant growth, with a rise of 2.67% [9]. Securities Sector - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 5.88 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 1.18 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.50% week-on-week increase [17]. - The IPO underwriting scale for the year reached 31.42 billion yuan, while refinancing underwriting amounted to 246.47 billion yuan [17]. Insurance Sector - The report highlights the establishment of private equity funds by leading insurance companies, which is expected to enhance their investment capabilities and support capital market development [1][2]. - The focus on high-dividend and stable income stocks is anticipated to improve the long-term investment portfolio of insurance companies [2]. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 930.9 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [28]. - Interest rates for various financial instruments, including government bonds, have generally declined, with the 1-year government bond yield falling to 1.42% [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, Ping An, China Life, and China Property & Casualty [37]. - In the securities sector, it recommends attention to top brokers like China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities, as well as financial institutions like ZhongAn Online and Hong Kong Exchanges [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In May 2025, with the implementation of double cuts and the coordination of multiple tools by the central bank, the capital market remained stable, and the DR007 capital center declined. In June, although there is a liquidity gap, the pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase and the central bank's usual care during the half - year period are expected to keep the risk of significant capital convergence relatively controllable, and the DR007 price is expected to be in the range of 1.5 - 1.65% [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Capital and Liquidity Review: Double Cuts Implemented, Capital Center Declined 3.1.1 Capital Review: Slightly Enlarged Capital Fluctuation Range In May 2025, the central bank coordinated multiple tools. After the double cuts, the capital price decreased, and the DR007 capital center dropped from 1.7% to around 1.6%. The fluctuation range of overnight and 7D weighted prices increased. The spread between 7D and overnight funds widened from 2bp at the beginning of the month to 18bp at the end of the month without inversion. The capital stratification pressure was small, and the volatility was at a low level. The trading volume and average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared with April. The net lending scale of state - owned banks recovered, while that of joint - stock banks was at a seasonal low, and the net lending of money market funds declined [8][9][14]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review: Reserve Requirement Cut, Bank Liquidity Increased The end - of - month excess reserve may increase by 93.84 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio may be around 1.3%. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases may be around 0.7%, still at a relatively low seasonal level. In terms of open - market operations, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase investments. MLF had a net investment of 37.5 billion yuan, and the outright reverse - repurchase had a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. There was no restart of treasury bond purchases, and treasury deposits were issued for 24 billion yuan [28][33][41]. 3.2 May Monetary Policy Tracking: "Steady Growth" Priority, Double Cuts Implemented in May In May 2025, the double cuts were implemented slightly ahead of market expectations. After the double cuts in the first ten - day period, the capital price decreased. In the middle and last ten - day periods, the central bank gradually shifted from net withdrawal to large - scale net investment. At the end of the month, various tools were used to support the market. The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase in June helps stabilize capital expectations. Policy tools include comprehensive use of reserve requirement cuts, interest rate cuts, and adjustments to structural monetary policy tools [46][49][52]. 3.3 June Gap Forecast: Pre - operation of Outright Reverse Repurchase, Limited Capital Gap Pressure 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Reserve Requirement Releases Excess Reserves, Large - scale Maturity of Outright Reverse Repurchases In June, the reserve requirement for general deposit growth may freeze around 22.56 billion yuan of liquidity, and the MLF maturity is 18.2 billion yuan. The outright reverse - repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan, with 1 trillion yuan already pre - operated [3][58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits Have a Small Impact on Excess Reserves Cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits may slightly consume around 11.52 billion yuan of liquidity [3][60]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Large - scale Government Bond Issuance, Fiscal Expenditure Concentrated at the End of the Quarter The government deposit may supplement around 40 billion yuan of liquidity, slightly lower than last year's level [3][64]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Pre - operation of Outright Reverse Repurchase, Relatively Stable Capital The total liquidity gap in June is around 1.4 trillion yuan. Considering the 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase already invested, the overall capital gap pressure is relatively limited. The central bank usually provides support during the half - year period, and the DR007 price is expected to be in the range of 1.5 - 1.65% [3][65][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance with most indices closing higher. The TMT sector recovered while the consumer sector declined. The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. Various policy measures are expected to help companies repair their balance sheets, promote stable economic development, and gradually increase stock market valuations. The overall view is that the stock index will be in a volatile state [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures showed different trends, with some contracts rising and others falling. The central bank's operations affected the bond market, and after macro - disturbances, the bond market followed changes in the capital market and economic fundamentals. The bond market is expected to remain in a sideways volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On June 5, 2025, most A-share market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A index rose 0.42% with a trading volume of 1.32 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.72%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.54%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.05%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.23%. The TMT sector recovered while the consumer sector declined. April economic data showed a slight decline compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales increased by 5.1% year - on - year, supported by the "trade - in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with a cumulative new RMB loan of 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 growth of 8% year - on - year. The Sino - US joint statement and domestic policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On June 5, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.16%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04%. The central bank conducted 1265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1395 billion yuan. The capital market was generally loose. The central bank's upcoming 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation led to a slight decline in Treasury bond yields. After adjustments, the bond market is in a sideways volatile pattern [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 5, 2025, compared with June 4, IH rose 0.01%, IF rose 0.25%, IC rose 0.61%, and IM rose 0.79% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50 index rose 0.05%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.23%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.54%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.72% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.03%, TF remained unchanged, T fell 0.04%, and TL remained unchanged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by - 1.45bp, - 0.46bp, 0.59bp, and 0.7bp respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - The central bank announced that on June 6, 2025, it will conduct a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 3 - month term using a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning method [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the corresponding basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts display the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [21][22][25].

策略报告 | 投资策略专题 知往鉴今系列 证券研究报告 大类资产复盘笔记（202505） 大类资产回顾：全球股指普遍修复收涨 1）大类资产总览：5 月大类资产窄幅波动，A 股修复后震荡回落，中债回升， 商品冲高回落，全球股指普遍收涨。2）A 股：5 月主要宽基指数多数收涨， 风格方面金融、消费领涨，环保、医药生物行业领涨。5 月关税冲突暂缓， 板块加速轮动，"公募新规叙事"、创新药、新消费轮番走强。3）债券：5 月 长短端收益率分化，长端利率上行，短端利率下行，期限利差走阔，存单利 率与 10 年期国债利率倒挂一度被打破，但月末回归倒挂状态，信用利差震 荡回落。4）商品：5 月商品多数收涨，黄金冲高回落，原油走牛。5）海外 权益：全球股指普遍收涨，美股三大指数中纳指领涨，亚太股指多数大涨， 韩国综合指数、台湾加权指数、日经 225 指数、恒生指数涨超 5%。6）美债： 5 月美国 20 年期国债"发飞"，10 年期利率一度升至 4.5%以上，期限利差小 幅收窄，中美利差走阔。 A 股：降准降息落地，景气回升需继续验证 1）基本面：一季度数据开局良好，但 4 月基本面表现偏弱。2）宏观流动性： 社融继续回暖，5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles is the recent monetary policy adjustments by the central bank, including a reduction in deposit and loan interest rates, which has led to a significant decrease in the performance benchmarks of various wealth management products offered by banks [1][2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - In May, the central bank implemented a "combination punch" of monetary policy, reducing the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, resulting in a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [2][6]. - Major state-owned banks initiated their first deposit rate cuts of the year, with the interest rate for demand deposits dropping to 0.05%, nearing "zero interest," and the one-year deposit rate falling below 1% [2][3]. Group 2: Wealth Management Product Adjustments - Over 300 wealth management products adjusted their performance benchmarks in May, with some products experiencing reductions exceeding 100 basis points [1][2][3]. - For instance, the benchmark for a specific product from Xingyin Wealth Management was adjusted from an annualized range of 2.20%-4.15% to 1.60%-2.60%, with the upper and lower limits reduced by 60 basis points and 155 basis points, respectively [3][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - As of early June, the average annualized yield for open-ended fixed-income wealth management products was 2.85%, while the one-year yield averaged 2.41%, indicating a downward trend in yields [6][7]. - The total scale of the wealth management market surpassed 30 trillion yuan, driven by the "deposit migration" effect as deposit rates fell [7][11]. Group 4: Investor Demand and Product Supply Mismatch - There is a notable mismatch between investor risk preferences and the types of wealth management products available, with 46.69% of investors having a risk preference of C3 or higher, while only 4.31% of products fall into the R3 category or above [13][14]. - The low-risk perception of wealth management products has limited their sustainable development, as the supply of low-volatility products does not align with the growing demand for diverse investment options [13][14].

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...

Core Insights - The top 100 real estate companies in China saw a significant increase in land acquisition amounts in the first five months of the year, totaling 405.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [1] - State-owned enterprises dominate land acquisition, with eight out of the top ten companies being state-owned, while some private companies like Binjiang Group also showed strong investment [1] - The top three companies in terms of new value added are Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Jinmao, with new values of 72.8 billion yuan, 72.3 billion yuan, and 60.3 billion yuan respectively [1] Land Transaction Overview - In the first five months, residential land transactions across 300 cities totaled 1.3 million square meters, showing a slight year-on-year decline, while land transfer fees increased by over 20% [1] - Core cities continue to see high demand for quality land, with significant premium rates observed in cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Beijing [1] Regional Insights - The Yangtze River Delta leads the four major city clusters in land acquisition, with the top ten companies acquiring 125.27 billion yuan worth of land, followed by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at 73.4 billion yuan [2] - Major companies are focusing on core cities for land acquisition, with state-owned and local state-owned enterprises being the primary players, while private companies are supplementing land reserves in key areas [2] High-Value Land Transactions - In May, several cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Nanjing saw high total price land transactions, with the highest being a plot in Haidian District, Beijing, sold for 4.5 billion yuan at a premium rate of 11.95% [3] - State-owned enterprises dominate high-value land acquisitions, with Poly Developments securing multiple plots [3] Market Outlook - The ongoing recovery of the real estate market remains a key policy goal, with expectations for continued implementation of supportive measures focusing on urban village renovations and high-quality housing supply [3] - There is an increased expectation for macroeconomic policies to be more proactive, including potential interest rate cuts and lower housing loan rates, which may enhance market stability [3]

Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]