| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2239 | 20 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -67 | 2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 725631 | 32553 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -91038 | -4449 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7754 | -80 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2410 | -10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2115 | -15 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 295 | 5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 171 | -30 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 268 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 340 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 250 | -6 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -72 | NAN | | 上游情况 | NYM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, polysilicon showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 36,410 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.39%, and the open interest decreased by 510 lots to 53,756 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 4,090 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 8,325 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.57%, and the open interest increased by 12,934 lots to 17,950 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,637 yuan/ton, down 128 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 280 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, traders cleared their inventories and pressured prices, and the downstream's willingness to stock up was lower than in previous years. After the holiday, the downstream demand still faced the pressure of a slowdown. Industrial silicon was affected by the negative feedback from the downstream and was difficult to get out of the bottom-finding rhythm. The adjustment flexibility of polysilicon production was relatively high, and the space for a sharp decline after the holiday was relatively limited compared with industrial silicon, mainly showing a narrow correction. Opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months could be considered. Attention should be paid to whether large-scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies will be newly introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which may trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with a decrease of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan to 280 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,236, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 1,330 tons to 346,180 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 5,900 tons to 244,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons to 409,100 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 835 yuan/ton to 36,410 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 835 yuan to 4,090 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 30, the GFE inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 90,000 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.37 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.4 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][13]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16][18][20]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][26]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [29][31][32].

【综合快讯】 1. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解，5 月 6 日新疆某电解铝厂常规招标采购现货氧化铝保持，本周招标总量 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 05 月 07 日 铝：上行动力不足 氧化铝：低位整理 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 19785 | -125 | -145 | -୧୪୧ | -620 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 19760 | - | - | । | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2429 | 38 | -31 | -110 | -260 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 138706 | 11695 | -21163 | -28516 | -12485 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 183758 | -11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed futures market shows a trend where near - term contracts are weakening and far - term contracts are slightly firmer. The overall market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed meal has increased significantly, and the supply is likely to be tight in the later period. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing the market price. The decline in soybean meal prices also drags down rapeseed meal futures prices [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the cost increase due to the tariff hike on Canadian rapeseed oil restricts future imports, and the supply - side pressure has weakened. But high inventory continues to restrain prices. The weakening of palm oil also affects rapeseed oil, leading to a decline in its price [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9216 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2548 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 701 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 149 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Position volumes: The position volume of the rapeseed oil main contract is 280976 lots, up 4397 lots; the position volume of the rapeseed meal main contract is 565683 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 18650 lots, down 3859 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 46891 lots, up 2077 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The rapeseed oil warehouse receipt quantity is 1357 sheets, unchanged; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipt quantity is 15700 sheets, up 1700 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8210 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9387.5 yuan/ton, down 18.75 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5143.56 yuan/ton, up 128.78 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.67, up 0.09; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 93 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 48 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 640 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 700 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 13.5 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 1.45 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 30 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed is 28.52%, up 9.86 percentage points; the monthly import rapeseed crushing profit is 8 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal area rapeseed oil inventory is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the coastal area rapeseed meal inventory is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 64.04 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 44.67 million tons, down 0.79 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 6.6 million tons, up 1 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 23 million tons, up 7.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 3.83 million tons, up 0.54 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 5.35 million tons, down 0.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons; the monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 23.08%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 23.16%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.12%, down 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.13%, down 0.41 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.19%, down 0.31 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.63%, down 0.99 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.98%, down 0.56 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.02%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the Canadian rapeseed futures market on Monday, most contracts declined, with the benchmark contract down 0.9%. The near - term contracts weakened, and the far - term contracts were slightly firmer. The prices of rapeseed futures ranged from a decline of 6.3 Canadian dollars to an increase of 3.6 Canadian dollars [2]. - South American rapeseed has a bumper harvest, which pressures international soybean prices. The expected reduction in the planting area of new - season US soybeans may increase the expectation of weather premiums. In the domestic market, before the festival, the soybean clearance time affected the operation of some oil mills, leading to a shortage of soybean meal supply. However, high prices have led to downstream resistance, and the spot price of soybean meal has dropped significantly. After the festival, the supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose [2].

印度石油公司高管：计划在2026财年从现货市场购买45%的原油需求。 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 尿素：节前宽幅震荡，注意仓位管理 | 项 目 | | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,735 | 1,781 | -46 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,748 | 1,772 | -24 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 313,145 | 208,654 | 104491 | | （09合约） | | 持仓量 | （手） | 210,028 | 205,466 | 4562 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 4,999 | 4,999 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,094,533 | 739,284 | 355249 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 6 5 | 9 | 5 6 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -35 | -81 | 4 6 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜可交割品） | 5 5 ...

豆粕生猪：现货成交低迷 豆粕延续回落 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 会门助员 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | TIOSHI EILLIBER | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 截至 | 南位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月29日 | 元/吨 | 3008 | 3019 | -11.00 | -0.36% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月29日 | 元/吨 | 2833 | 2870 | -37.00 | -1.29% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月29日 | 元/吨 | 2964 | 5985 | -21.00 | -0.70% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月29日 | 元/吨 | 2370 | 2399 | -29.00 | -1. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Affected by concerns over production growth, it fell below 4,000 ringgit and is expected to test the support at 3,500 ringgit in the long - term. In China, Dalian palm oil futures adjusted downward, with short - term support expected around 8,000 - 8,100 yuan. It's advisable to take profits before the May Day holiday [1]. - Soybean oil: The USDA monthly report lowered the US soybean oil's ending inventory, but the positive news has been reflected in the price. US biodiesel consumption has slowed down. In China, spot prices mostly fell, with some regions rising due to higher basis quotes. Factory supply is tight, and inventory is low, keeping spot quotes strong in the short - term [1]. Meal - The US soybean market is in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation yet and continuous demand concerns. Brazil's supply pressure is being realized, and China's soybean arrivals are abundant. Short - term domestic soybean meal is affected by slow customs clearance, with low oil mill operation rates and falling inventories. The basis has been rising, but the market's willingness to buy at high prices is limited. In May, the basis is expected to decline. Wait for the market to stabilize before considering long - term long positions [3]. Live Pigs - The previous entry of second - fattening pigs pushed up prices, but terminal follow - up is difficult. Recently, second - fattening transactions have declined, and pig prices have fallen. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and demand is weak. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,800 yuan. Pay attention to second - fattening pig sales around May Day [5]. Corn - The market has strong bullish sentiment, and spot prices are rising. The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost gone, and traders in the Northeast are strongly holding prices. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream has rigid demand for restocking, but high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and recovering demand will support corn prices, but new - season wheat substitution may cause short - term corrections. Be cautious when chasing up prices [7]. White Sugar - Brazil's new sugar - crushing season is starting, and Thailand's production is expected to increase. The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, which will put long - term pressure on prices. ICE raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. Rain in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The issuance of import licenses and import volume will dominate the market. Domestic supply and demand are loosening, and sugar prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [9]. Cotton - Cotton prices are mainly affected by macro factors. Pay attention to the development of the US - initiated tariff war. If tariffs are reduced in the short - term, it will be positive for the market; otherwise, it will be negative in the medium - term. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventories are slightly accumulating, but the pressure is not large. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate. Keep an eye on macro trends [11]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively abundant, and demand is decreasing. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. Egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On April 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,370 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.76%) from April 25. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,866 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 128 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,035 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on April 28 was 9,080 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.63%) from April 25. The futures price of P2509 was 8,566 yuan, down 1.70%. The basis was 514 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil on April 28 was 9,400 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.57%) from April 25. The futures price of O1509 was 9,305 yuan, down 1.65%. The basis was 95 yuan, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 1,634 to 1,357 [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,500 yuan, down 300 yuan (- 7.89%) from the previous value. The futures price of M2509 was 2,985 yuan, down 1.52%. The basis was 515 yuan, down 33.03%. The warehouse receipts were 10,600, unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,580 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 2.27%) from the previous value. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,641 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 61 yuan, down 38.64%. The warehouse receipts increased from 1,000 to 2,000 [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,950 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,225 yuan, down 0.28%. The basis was - 275 yuan, up 4.18%. The warehouse receipts increased by 13.37% to 10,981 [3]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract price was 790 yuan/ton, up 2.60%. The price of the live - pig 2507 contract was 13,485 yuan, down 0.41%; the 2509 contract was 14,130 yuan, down 0.14%. The 7 - 9 spread was 645 yuan, up 5.74%. The main - contract positions increased by 1.48% to 73,369, and the warehouse receipts were 705 [5]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions remained unchanged. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.56% to 147,162 heads. The weekly white - strip price dropped by 100.00% to 0.00 yuan, the weekly piglet price dropped by 3.79% to 26.94 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.51 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.29% to 128.94 kg, and the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 26.05% to 100 yuan [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2507 contract was 2,361 yuan, up 1.07%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,270 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was - 91 yuan, down 19.74%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan, unchanged. The positions increased by 3.12% to 2,305,598, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.44% to 112,229 [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,721 yuan, up 0.44%. The Changchun spot price was 2,590 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price was 2,760 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 131 yuan, down 10.08%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 79 yuan, down 25.40%. The positions increased by 4.13% to 353,656, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,450 [7]. White Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,189 yuan, up 0.23%; the 2509 contract was 5,977 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw - sugar main contract was 17.83 cents/lb, down 1.82%. The 5 - 9 spread was 212 yuan, up 5.47%. The positions increased by 1.69% to 338,467 hands, the warehouse receipts were 28,756, unchanged, and the valid forecasts increased by 12.37% to 3,270 [9]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price was 6,220 yuan, up 0.16%; the Kunming spot price was 6,070 yuan, up 1.17%. The Nanning basis was 31 yuan, down 11.43%; the Kunming basis was - 119 yuan, up 32.00% [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the cotton 2505 contract was 12,675 yuan, down 0.39%; the 2509 contract was 12,950 yuan, down 0.31%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 67.56 cents/lb, down 1.66%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 275 yuan, down 3.77%. The positions decreased by 0.30% to 570,462 hands, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.72% to 10,479, and the valid forecasts increased by 1.14% to 1,960 [11]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 13,998 yuan, unchanged; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,244 yuan, up 0.07%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,956 yuan, down 0.56%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1,323 yuan, up 3.93%; the 3128B - 05 contract basis was 1,048 yuan, up 3.97%; the CC Index of 3128B - FC Index of M: 1% was 288 yuan, up 44.00% [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,812 yuan/500KG, down 0.16%; the 05 contract was 3,133 yuan/500KG, down 0.98%. The 9 - 5 spread was 679 yuan, up 3.82%. The basis was 315 yuan, down 9.92% [14]. - **Related Prices**: The egg - laying chicken chick price was 4.25 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled - chicken price was 5.19 yuan/jin, up 2.77%; the egg - to - feed ratio was 2.69, up 1.51%; the breeding profit was - 6.03 yuan/feather, up 29.39% [14].

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 商日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1594.5 | 1607.0 | -156 | JM2601 | 1004.0 | 1004.5 | -0.5 | 101基差 | -105.5 | -118.0 | 15.5 | | J2505 | 1565.5 | 0.5651 | -26.5 | JM2505 | 889.0 | 5568 | -3.5 | 105基差 | -76.5 | -103.0 | 26.5 | | 12509 | 0.9995T | 1590.5 | -24,5 | 8055WIE | 0.956.0 | 0.956 | 0.0 | 100 查会 | -77.0 | -101.5 | 24. ...