Market Overview - On September 3, precious metals sector experienced a significant surge, with silver and Western Gold achieving three consecutive gains, and Eurasia Group hitting the daily limit, followed by increases in Zhaojin Gold and Shandong Gold [1] Key Events - On September 3, spot gold reached a historical high of $3546.96 per ounce, while spot silver surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011 [3] - Morgan Stanley set a target price of $3800 per ounce for gold in Q4 2025 [4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices saw substantial increases on September 2, with Chow Sang Sang at 1041 CNY per gram (up 16 CNY), Lao Miao Gold at 1034 CNY (up 11 CNY), and Chow Tai Fook at 1037 CNY (up 10 CNY) [4] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, indicated that the wealth gap is leading to more extreme U.S. policies, prompting international investors to shift from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold [4] Institutional Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September due to weakening employment supply and demand, alongside ongoing pressure from Trump to replace Fed officials, which may lead to sustained increases in precious metal prices as global central banks continue to buy gold [5] - From now until the end of the year, potential Fed rate cuts, the suppressive effects of tariffs on the economy, and inflationary pressures will manifest in data, increasing the risk of overseas stagflation and driving gold prices higher. The accelerated expansion of U.S. debt may also exacerbate credit cracks in U.S. Treasuries, serving as a catalyst for gold price increases [5] - For silver, the current COMEX and SHFE gold-silver ratios are above historical averages. If rate cuts materialize and the gold-silver ratio continues to adjust, silver prices may have further upward momentum. Additionally, increased industrial demand, particularly in photovoltaic cells, is a key driver for silver price growth due to the rapid development of the solar industry [5]

黄金延续连续六天的涨势，刷新历史最高纪录。由于美国降息前景增强了黄金的吸引力，加之股市和债 市抛售促使交易员寻求避险，贵金属需求持续攀升。周三亚洲市场开盘时，现货黄金价格上涨0.4%， 至每盎司3546.96美元，略高于周二创下的历史高点。在过去六个交易日中，金价累计上涨5%，支撑因 素包括市场对美联储未来政策的重新担忧、发达国家预算问题引发的避险需求升温。 今年以来黄金涨幅超过三分之一，成为表现最佳的主要大宗商品之一。近期上涨动力源于市场预期美联 储本月将降息——此前美联储主席鲍威尔已谨慎地为降息打开大门。本周五将公布的美国关键就业报告 很可能进一步显示劳动力市场日益疲软，这为降息提供了更多依据。低利率环境通常有利于无息资产黄 金的表现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a slight pullback with significant declines in technology stocks, indicating a rotation between high and low-performing sectors [1][4]. Market Outlook - Increased volatility is expected in early September, but it will not affect the mid-term market trend. After a continuous rise in August, the market is facing some divergence as it approaches the 3900-point mark, leading to potential profit-taking and a need for re-evaluation of leading sectors [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous peak of 3731 points from 2021, while other major indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext still have room for catch-up [2]. Hot Sectors - In September, the technology sector may see internal differentiation, with low-performing sectors like robotics, new energy, and military potentially experiencing a rebound. Traditional industries such as finance and consumer goods also have opportunities for recovery [3]. - Key trends to watch include: 1. The ongoing trend of robot localization and integration into daily life, with potential catalysts from updates in Tesla's humanoid robot [3]. 2. The push for semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 3. Expectations of order recovery in the military sector by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in mid-term performance [3]. 4. The innovative drug sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025 after several years of adjustment [3]. 5. The banking sector is seeing a rebound in mid-term performance after initial impacts from loan rate re-pricing, attracting long-term institutional investors due to appealing dividend yields [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing a historic surge, with spot gold prices remaining above $3500 per ounce and COMEX gold futures breaking through $3610 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end gold price target to $3800 per ounce, emphasizing the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar as a key pricing logic [2] - The FedWatch tool indicates a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold [2] Group 2 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust GLD, saw its holdings increase by 1.32% to 990.56 tons, the highest level since August 2022, indicating strong inflows into gold [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold futures have continued to rebound, marking the sixth consecutive day of gains, with resistance levels identified at $3620-$3630 and support levels at $3580-$3590 [2]

国际金价再创历史新高。 万得数据显示，北京时间9月3日，COMEX黄金期货价格站上3600美元/盎司的历史关口。截至发稿前， 其价格为3607.6美元/盎司，涨幅0.43%。这是国际黄金期货价格连续第七个交易日上涨。 同日，招金黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、山东黄金等纷纷上涨；西部黄金涨停，报26.51元/股，市值为 242亿元。这是该股连续第三个交易日涨停。 业绩报告显示，西部黄金今年上半年实现营业收入50.3亿元，同比增长69.01%；归母净利润1.54亿元， 同比增长131.94%。 9月3日，国内黄金饰品价格也继续上涨。其中，周大福足金饰品价格1053元/克，比前一日上涨16元/ 克；老凤祥足金零售价1050元/克，比前一日上涨14元/克。 美联储本月降息预期升温以及各国央行持续强劲的增储需求，是推动近期黄金价格上涨的主要原因。 当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上释放明确鸽派信号，市场因此对美联储9月份 降息的预期显著提升。同时，近期多位美联储官员也在发言中表态支持9月份降息25个基点，或暗示"美 联储可能很快将开始下调利率"，使得降息预期持续升温。 摩根士丹利报告显示，在美联储开启降 ...

美财长贝森特：不担心美元汇率，欧元强势源于欧洲财政扩张 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为10.4%，降息25个基点的概率为89.6%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为4.9%，累计降息25个基点 的概率为47.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为47.9%。 来源：新浪网 9月2日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1089，下调17.00点。 美联储9月降息概率为89.6% 美国财长贝森特周一表示，他并不担心美元相对于欧元的汇率地位，并指出由于欧洲财政扩张政策的影响，欧元理应保持强势。"在德国引领下，欧洲正在 实施大规模财政扩张，"贝森特在接受采访时表示，"市场．．．正在良好运转。" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The market is strong with London gold price above $3500. The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index shows contraction, and domestic gold ETF has capital inflow. It is recommended to go long on gold due to the increased probability of Fed rate - cut and the unchanged de - dollarization logic [2]. - **Silver**: It follows gold's rise. As it enters the US critical minerals list and faces tariff threats, there are short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillates strongly. With the weakening of the US manufacturing PMI and the opening of the import window, it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract slightly declined. Supply is stable, demand is recovering, but inventory build - up suppresses the market. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the inventory inflection point [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply is affected by environmental protection, and demand is high. The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract rose. Supply has increased significantly, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract slightly declined. Supply is tightening, consumption is flat, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to trade within a range and go long on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply has increased, demand in some industries is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate weakly [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell. Supply growth is weakening, demand is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side changes [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Tin**: The price oscillates. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of future increases. It may follow the macro - trend and oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Inventory has increased, and supply - demand is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply and demand are neutral - strong with a slight weakening at the margin. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is expected to change, and demand has a game. Short - term US soybeans are strong, and the domestic market may oscillate. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [8]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract continued to rebound. Wheat substitution, increased supply, and lower costs suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price fell. International and domestic factors affect the market. It is recommended to short on the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price oscillated and fell. International and domestic market conditions are different. It is recommended to go long on dips within the 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton range [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rose. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand is increasing. It is recommended to be bullish on the medium - term and pay attention to production and policies [8]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract performed weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate [8]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the state has started a purchase and storage plan. It is recommended to wait and see as the spot price may stop falling and stabilize [9]. - **Apples**: The main contract price rose slightly. The price of early - maturing apples is falling, but there are expectations for late - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see as the market oscillates [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. Short - term oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [10]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply prices are rising, inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating slightly. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rose, but the Brent spread weakened. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and there is a large expected surplus in Q4. It is recommended to short on rallies [11]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is normal. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or short on styrene profit when the price rebounds [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicates a potential new upward trend for precious metals, with Morgan Stanley projecting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce for gold [1][7]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - On September 2, London spot gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,508.49, marking a new historical high after a four-month consolidation period [2]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also hit record highs during the same trading session, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce and COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest levels since 2012 [2]. - Domestic gold and silver futures in China also saw significant increases, with the main gold contract closing at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%, and the main silver contract at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33% [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers and Predictions - Multiple institutions highlight that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are the primary catalyst for the current gold price surge, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [3]. - The market is reacting to macroeconomic policies and political risks, with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to President Trump's influence, further enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [4]. - Analysts predict that the breakout above $3,500 per ounce for gold could initiate a new upward trend, with silver prices expected to follow suit due to its industrial applications [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Notable investment firms are focusing on upstream resource sectors, including gold, copper, and aluminum, anticipating a weaker dollar and limited supply growth, which could enhance the profitability of quality companies [5]. - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as U.S. employment data and CPI, are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [7]. - UBS forecasts that gold prices will continue to reach new highs in the coming quarters, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and rising geopolitical risks [7].

人民币汇率：英镑暴跌 【行情回顾】上前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1476，较上一交易日跌 101 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1390。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1089，较上一交易日调贬 17 个 基点。 【重要资讯】1）市场对英国财政状况的忧虑等因素叠加，英国 30 年期国债收益率升至 1998 年以来的最高水平，英镑出现大幅下跌。2）特朗普：周三将就关税裁决召开紧急会 议。最快将于周三向最高法院提出上诉，若关税的上诉被驳回，将不得不撤回关税。如果 关税裁决不利，将不得不退还数万亿美元。将督促最高法院加快裁决。3）美国 8 月 ISM 制造业指数从 7 月的 48 微升至 48.7，低于市场预期的 49，连续六个月低于荣枯线。新订 单指数升至 51.4，自今年年初以来首次扩张。但产出指数下滑 3.6 点至 47.8，重新跌入收 缩区间。 【核心逻辑】前期我们谈到当前美元兑人民币即期汇率的核心矛盾，并非方向选择层面， 而是时间维度下的节奏把控问题，关键变量在于央行对于人民币相对于美元的升值启动的 具体时点与推进过程中的速度把控。目前来看，美元兑人民币中间价暂时稳定在 7.10 附近， 那 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 03 日 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,858.13 | -0.45% | | 深圳成指 | 12,553.84 | -2.14% | | 沪深 300 | 4,490.45 | -0.74% | | 上证 50 | 2,992.88 | 0.39% | | 中证 500 | 6,961.69 | -2.09% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 42,310.49 | 0.29% | | 道琼指数 | 45,295.81 | #DIV/0! | | 标普 500 | 6,415.54 | #DIV/0! | | 纳斯达克 | 21,279.63 | #DIV/0! | | 美元指数 | 98.3208 | 0.63% | | 人民币 | 7.1476 | 0.20% | | 纽约黄金 | 3,599.50 | #DIV/0! | | WTI 原油 | 65.59 | #DIV/0! | | LME 铜 | 10,013.50 | 1 ...