Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold stocks in Hong Kong are experiencing a rebound, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which enhances the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] - In the Asian morning session, gold prices increased, with spot gold rising by 0.4% to $5,042.82 per ounce, reflecting a healthy correction after a significant prior increase [1] - Wells Fargo has raised its gold price target for 2026 to between $6,100 and $6,300 per ounce, indicating an upside potential of over 20% due to geopolitical risks, market volatility, and strong demand from central banks [1] Group 2 - Specific gold stocks showed significant price increases, with Zijin Mining International up 7.82%, Lingbao Gold up 7.24%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold up 5.05% [2] - Other notable performers included China Gold International with a 4.22% increase, Shandong Gold up 2.91%, and Zhaojin Mining up 2.82% [2] - The overall trend indicates a positive sentiment in the gold sector, with multiple companies experiencing gains in their stock prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong gold stocks are experiencing a rebound, with significant price increases observed in several companies due to favorable market conditions and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 2 - Zijin Mining International and Lingbao Gold both saw intraday gains exceeding 8%, with Lingbao Gold recording a three-day consecutive rise [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold increased by 5%, while China Gold International rose over 4%, and Zijin Mining gained 3.5% [1] - Shandong Gold and Zhaojin Mining both saw approximately 3% increases [1] Group 3 - In the Asian early trading session, spot gold rose by 0.4%, reaching $5,042.82 per ounce, driven by the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which enhances the appeal of this non-yielding precious metal [1] - Wells Fargo noted that the recent pullback in gold prices is a healthy correction following a significant prior increase, with spot gold prices down over 10% from the record high set at the end of January [1] Group 4 - The bank raised its 2026 gold price target to between $6,100 and $6,300 per ounce, indicating an upside potential of over 20%, citing geopolitical risks, market volatility, and strong demand from central banks as key reasons [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international gold prices experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, influenced by mixed economic signals from the U.S. retail sales data and comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][3] - Gold prices opened at $5058.44 per ounce, showing a daily range with a high of $5078.39 and a low of $4987.28, ultimately closing at $5025.33, reflecting a daily decline of $33.11 or 0.65% [3] - The outlook for gold prices on February 11 suggests an initial strength due to U.S. retail sales data and geopolitical tensions, but potential limitations on upward movement due to expectations for the upcoming non-farm payroll data [3] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the January non-farm payroll data will likely exceed previous values, which could negatively impact gold prices, although recent ADP and jobless claims data suggest a possible lower outcome that may support gold [3] - The expected decline in the annual rate of average hourly wages in January could also influence gold prices, leading to a volatile trading environment regardless of whether the data meets or exceeds expectations [3] - The recommended trading strategy is to maintain a primarily long position on gold while considering short positions as a secondary option [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for January, with expectations of a slowdown in employment growth and a potential impact on Federal Reserve policy [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for February 6, has been delayed to February 11 due to a government shutdown [1] - The report is expected to show an addition of 69,000 jobs for January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4% [1] - There is an anticipated downward revision of 911,000 jobs in the annual employment data up to March 2025 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve initiated interest rate cuts at the end of 2025, influenced by signs of weakness in the labor market [1] - The market currently estimates a 78.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, but this expectation has decreased to 57.3% for April, down from 70% a week prior [1]

格隆汇2月11日｜道富策略师Lee Ferridge表示，沃什上任美联储主席后，降息的幅度可能超过市场预 期，美元今年有可能会下跌10%。市场预计美联储将在6月左右恢复降息，合共在年底前降息两次，每 次25个基点。但在美国总统特朗普的压力下，不排除美联储今年可能会降息三次，这可能会对美元构成 更大的压力。Ferridge表示，若美国经济数据强劲，能够降低市场对美联储降息的预期，美元短期内可 能会反弹2%至3%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - The core retail sales in the US for December 2025 showed no month-on-month growth at $735 billion, significantly below the expected 0.4% increase and a sharp decline from the previous month's 0.6% growth [1] - Year-on-year, retail and food service sales increased by 2.4%, which is lower than the consumer price index's 2.7% increase during the same period [1] - Sales in categories such as automobiles, furniture, electronics, clothing, and personal care products decreased month-on-month, while sales in building materials, gasoline, food and beverages, and sporting goods increased [1] Group 2 - The disappointing retail data has raised concerns about consumer spending, a key driver of US economic growth, leading to a reassessment of economic growth, inflation, and interest rate paths for the year [2] - Economists predict that consumer spending in January 2026 may be weak due to extreme winter weather, resulting in a significant slowdown in consumption growth for the first quarter of 2026 [2] - Following the data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March increased by about 2 percentage points to 19.6%, with a nearly 5 percentage point rise for April [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials emphasize that inflation remains a primary concern, with Dallas Fed President Lori Logan expressing cautious optimism about current policy rates achieving the 2% inflation target while maintaining labor market stability [3] - Logan indicated that upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining whether inflation has reached target levels and if the labor market remains stable, which could influence future interest rate decisions [3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that current monetary policy is well-positioned to maintain rates, with inflation expected to remain around 3% this year [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mixed performance of major indices, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing strength, particularly the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index which rose by 1.85% [1] - Notable stocks within the non-ferrous metals sector include Xiamen Tungsten, which increased by over 5%, and Guocheng Mining, which rose by over 4% [1] - The Silverhua Non-Ferrous ETF (159871) closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index and has seen a significant increase in its circulating shares by over 305% year-to-date, with a current circulating scale of 948 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Retail sales in the U.S. showed no growth in December, significantly missing expectations, which has led to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to rising living costs and import tariffs, indicating consumer fatigue [2] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may create opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in rare earths, as supply and demand remain tight [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite short - term disturbances, the long - term bullish logic remains intact, though there are risks associated with the nomination process and external market corrections [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 537.50, 532.00, and 526.00 respectively, with price changes of - 2.70, - 0.05, and - 0.90, and price change rates of - 0.50%, - 0.01%, and - 0.17% respectively. The trading volumes are 5828, 161, and 120, and the open interests are all 12175 [1]. - **Palladium Futures**: For pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 429.05, 430.00, and 424.15 respectively, with price changes of - 4.60, 0.60, and - 3.90, and price change rates of - 1.06%, 0.14%, and - 0.91% respectively. The trading volumes are 3046, 31, and 15, and the open interests are all 4146 [1]. Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The previous closing price of Shanghai platinum was 549.47 yuan/gram, with a price increase of 5.48 yuan/gram and a price change rate of 0.010%. The previous closing price of London platinum was 2120.00 US dollars/ounce, with a price increase of 25.00 US dollars/ounce and a price change rate of 0.012%. The previous closing prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum were 836.00 yuan/gram and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively, with price changes of 31.00 yuan/gram and 0.00 yuan/gram, and price change rates of 0.039% and 0.000% respectively [1]. - **Palladium Spot**: The previous closing price of Chinese palladium was 426.00 yuan/gram, with a price increase of 6.00 yuan/gram and a price change rate of 0.014%. The previous closing price of Russian palladium was 4234.85 rubles/gram, with a price increase of 8.26 rubles/gram and a price change rate of 0.002% [1]. Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 583,369.21 ounces, a decrease of 63071.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The current NYMEX registered warehouse receipts are 325,763.41 ounces, a decrease of 874.5 ounces compared to the previous value. The current trading volume on the Gold Exchange is 16.5044 million yuan, a decrease of 35.389 million yuan compared to the previous value, and the trading volume is 30.00 kilograms, a decrease of 66.0 kilograms compared to the previous value [1]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 190,873.50 ounces, with no change compared to the previous value. The current NYMEX registered warehouse receipts are 148,317.64 ounces, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. Related Derivatives - **Precious Metal Futures**: For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 1121.22, 1123.96, and 1126.54 respectively, with price decreases of 4.72, 4.82, and 4.70 compared to the previous closing prices. For Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 20284.00, 19711.00, and 19365.00 respectively, with price decreases of 589, 464, and 481 compared to the previous closing prices [1]. Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan [2]. - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - **China's Economic Data**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production remained in an expansionary state, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2]. - **Payment System Meeting**: The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and improving service quality [3]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Short - term Disturbances**: As of February 2, 2026, NYMEX platinum and palladium prices have corrected by 21.5% and 16.9% respectively since the end of January. The main disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but less than expected, and the short - term strengthening of the US dollar after the nomination announcement has dragged down platinum and palladium prices. There are uncertainties in the nomination process and subsequent policy independence, leading to continued short - term monetary policy expectation games [4]. - **Long - term Support**: The judicial investigation of Powell has shaken the US dollar's credit, and the global central bank gold - buying trend continues. The de - dollarization trend highlights the reserve value of platinum and palladium. Geopolitical risks in Greenland provide periodic support. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged, and the long - term loose environment provides support. On the industrial side, there is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, and the supply of palladium is rigid, with strong demand support [4].

在美国劳工部即将公布备受瞩目的1月非农数据的前一天，美国国债价格罕见地出现了大幅飙升，因意 外低迷的美国零售数据令投资者预期美联储今年进行多次降息的可能性正变得更大。周二的走势，使部 分期限的美债收益率降至了过去一个月来最低水平。此前数据显示假日购物季末期消费者支出动能减 弱，反映出人们对生活成本和就业增长放缓的担忧。该数据可能也为周三即将公布的"延迟版"1月非农 数据报告奠定相对低迷基调，该报告目前正备受市场参与者关注。美国商务部人口普查局周二公布的数 据显示，去年12月零售销售额与去年同期持平，大幅不及预期的上升0.4%，亦低于11月0.6%的增速。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and the exit of speculative funds, leading to a slight decline in gold futures and related ETFs [1][2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve officials, including Logan and Harmack, have indicated that the current policy stance is appropriate, suggesting no further rate cuts are needed if inflation stabilizes and the labor market remains steady [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is seen as a critical indicator; a significantly weak report could lead to increased bets on economic recession and faster rate cuts, potentially boosting gold prices [2] - The U.S. CPI inflation data is crucial as it directly impacts the Fed's effectiveness in combating inflation; persistent inflation could undermine market confidence in rate cuts, exerting pressure on gold prices [2]