Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The macro - expected situation has been realized, and the market is under short - term pressure. The supply - demand contradictions in glass, soda ash, and double - silicon sectors continue to affect the prices of related products [1][3] 3. Market Analysis and Strategy by Product Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market dropped significantly yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for刚需. The开工 rate of float glass enterprises this week was 80.63%, unchanged from last week, and the factory inventory was 65.79 million heavy boxes, a 1.24% decrease from last week, showing obvious inventory reduction. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still large, the inventory pressure is still at a historically high level, and the futures - cash merchants are squeezing the market share of glass factories. With the end of the consumption peak season and the potential for some production lines to resume production, the glass price is expected to remain under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market showed a weak oscillating trend yesterday. Downstream procurement is mainly for刚需 replenishment. This week, the soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a 2.29% increase from last week, and the inventory was 1.702 million tons, a 0.01% decrease from last week. The supply - demand contradiction remains, with the supply expected to increase further, the刚需 showing resilience, and the speculative demand weakening. The inventory reduction pressure will persist throughout the year [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,842 yuan/ton yesterday. The spot market was stable, and the alloy cost support was fair. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Although silicomanganese enterprises are facing increasing losses, the production remains high, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Recently, coking coal has driven the upward movement of the black sector, strengthening the bottom support of silicomanganese. It is expected that the silicomanganese price will continue to fluctuate with the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures tried to rise in the morning but faced pressure and then declined in the afternoon under the influence of the black sector. The spot market sentiment was flat, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. Currently, ferrosilicon enterprises have high production and high inventory, and the demand is expected to weaken. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, it has not effectively curbed production, and the weak fundamental situation is difficult to reverse. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon price will follow the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - For L and PP, the rating is neutral [4]. 2. Core View - The downstream demand for polyolefins is still slowly increasing, and both PE and PP are under pressure. The short - term trends of PE and PP are mainly influenced by the cost side. The supply of both is under pressure, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PE is in short - term shock consolidation, and the price of PP continues to be weak [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,968 yuan/ton (-41), PP main contract at 6,651 yuan/ton (-34). LL North China spot was 6,950 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 7,060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,580 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis was -18 yuan/ton (+31), LL East China basis 92 yuan/ton (+41), PP East China basis -71 yuan/ton (+4) [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 80.9% (-0.6%), PP开工率 was 77.1% (+1.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 343.2 yuan/ton (-39.1), PP oil - based production profit was -346.8 yuan/ton (-39.1), PDH - based PP production profit was 45.6 yuan/ton (-8.9) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 69.8 yuan/ton (+86.1), PP import profit was -294.7 yuan/ton (+0.7), PP export profit was -21.7 dollars/ton (-5.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 49.5% (+2.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 51.3% (-1.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.6% (+0.2%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, the supply surplus expectation is strengthened, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The cost support of PE is weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is still limited. The PE price is in short - term shock consolidation, and the upside space may be limited [3]. - **PP**: The oil - based cost support is weakened, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PP continues to be weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral, with a short - term recommendation of waiting and observing. There are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Concerns about tariffs have eased, and CP prices continued to decline in November. The 11 - month CP price announced by Saudi Aramco is slightly higher than expected, and the arrival cost is still supported. The PG market has shown a volatile and slightly stronger trend after stabilizing from the bottom. The suspension of the 24% tariff for another year has temporarily alleviated concerns in the LPG market. Currently, market contradictions are limited, and the market may continue to operate within a range [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On October 30, regional prices varied: Shandong market was 4220 - 4300 yuan/ton; Northeast market was 3630 - 4030 yuan/ton; North China market was 4100 - 4350 yuan/ton; East China market was 4150 - 4260 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market was 4550 - 4730 yuan/ton; Northwest market was 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton; South China market was 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the arrival price of frozen propane in East China was 555 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 540 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton. In South China, propane was 550 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 535 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton [1] - The 11 - month CP price announced by Saudi Aramco: propane was 475 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from the previous month, and butane was 460 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton from the previous month [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and BR is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic inventory has further declined since early October due to the temporary slowdown of domestic arrivals and the rebound of downstream tire operating rates, leading to a faster outbound rate than the inbound rate at ports. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, driving the continuous rebound of downstream tire operating rates. The cost - side support of natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase during the peak season. The overall domestic supply and demand may show a pattern of strong growth on both sides. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of domestic social inventory will slow down or even accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and there is a demand for price rebound under a warm macro - environment. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, there are still many devices under maintenance, and the supply - side support is expected to remain. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom support for BR prices, but the weak upstream butadiene prices drag down the cost [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 225 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,930 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of - 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2] - **Natural rubber imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Thai natural rubber exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2] - **Automobile production and sales**: In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - **Rubber tire exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] - **EU passenger car market**: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On October 30, 2025, the RU basis was - 600 yuan/ton (+ 275), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 470 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,136 yuan/ton (- 3,135.67), the NR basis was 727.00 yuan/ton (+ 58.00); the price of whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton (- 220), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,730 yuan/ton (- 220) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.99 Thai baht/kg (- 0.83), the price of Thai glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.05), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 2.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45) [5] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+ 2,521) [6] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On October 30, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 2,003 yuan/ton (- 49) [6] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.77% (- 4.93%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, maintain a neutral stance [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve as the spot price center moves up slightly, with increased northwest开工 in the near term and southwest production cuts starting at the end of October. The industrial silicon valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For short - term, it's recommended to operate within a range, and for the dry - season contracts, it's advisable to go long at low prices [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although the production has started to decrease recently and is expected to decline in November, the downstream production schedule may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it's suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. In the short - term, it's recommended to operate within a range [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9145 yuan/ton and closed at 9155 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 227,764 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,410 lots, an increase of 72 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton; 99 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 124,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including non - registered warehouse receipts and spot inventory) was 434,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Consumption**: According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton. Under the background of gradually released supply - side pressure and insufficient demand - side support, the game between upstream and downstream markets will intensify, and the domestic silicone DMC price will still be under pressure and decline slightly [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, go long at low prices. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations are provided [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,900 yuan/ton and closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 126,052 lots (118,430 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 223,914 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [4]. - **Inventory and Production**: The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%; the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and it is expected to decline in November due to significant production cuts in the southwest region [4][5]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan/piece); the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.69 yuan/piece; the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece [5]. - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.32 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W; PERC210mm components were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W; N - type 182mm components were 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W; N - type 210mm components were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations are provided [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure and long - term attention on US cotton production and export. In China, short - term cotton price upward space is limited, but long - term prospects are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle. Brazilian sugar production may decline in the short term, but long - term rebound is restricted. In China, short - term sugar price rebound space is limited, and the lower space is also restricted [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance with loose supply and weak demand. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,600 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang factory price was 14,658 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,843 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton production is expected to increase to 530 - 570 million tons, and new cotton arrivals are increasing [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market supply - demand will be loose, with short - term external markets under pressure. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new cotton supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price upward space is limited, and long - term prospects are optimistic [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term, the cotton price may test the previous low, and long - term, it can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5472 yuan/ton yesterday, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5720 yuan/ton [3] - Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of October crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, up 0.3% year - on - year, and produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, up 1.25% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production may decline in the short term, but long - term rebound is restricted. In China, short - term sugar price rebound space is limited, and the lower space is also restricted [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to whether 5400 can form a phased support [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5224 yuan/ton yesterday, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp was 4990 yuan/ton [5] - Imported wood pulp spot market prices were basically stable, with only individual fluctuations [6] Market Analysis - Supply is loose, with overseas production reduction plans having limited impact and domestic imports increasing. Demand is weak both globally and in China, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [7]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol (EG) decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4032 yuan/ton (down 68 yuan/ton, - 1.66% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot price at 4145 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton, - 0.31% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 78 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 42 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 602 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the East China main port showed different trends according to different data sources. According to CCF, it was 52.3 tons (down 5.6 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival volume this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, the domestic ethylene glycol load is running at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. The import expectation changes little. On the demand side, the polyester downstream has moderately improved recently, which boosts the overall sentiment [2]. - The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on the single - side, conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605, and having no cross - variety strategy [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG East China spot price and basis are presented, with the price and basis changes as mentioned above [1][6][7] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based EG are analyzed, along with the overall and syngas - based EG operating rates [1][10][14] International Price Difference - The international price difference between US FOB and China CFR of ethylene glycol is involved [17][19] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The production and sales of filaments and short fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips are included [18][20][22] Inventory Data - The inventory data of the East China port, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, Shanghai + Changshu Port, the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of the East China port are analyzed [29][30][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9055 - 9255 for the 2601 contract [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling will increase in the short - term and is expected to回调 in the medium - term. The demand side, including silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, is expected to recover in the medium - term. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54160 - 55740 for the 2601 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, components are profitable, organic silicon inventory is at a low level, and its production is in a loss state with a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05% and flat compared to the previous week, lower than the historical average [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 145 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and major port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease compared to the previous week. The scheduled production for October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase compared to the previous week, and inventory was 184,700 tons, a 6.70% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell and component production also have different trends in production and inventory, with components being profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,950 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 30, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2600 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase, and spot prices of different grades remained stable [15]. - Inventory data of different regions and types showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [15]. - Production and operating rates of different regions also showed different changes [15]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable or changed slightly [17]. - Inventory, production, and export data of different products also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 grades showed different trends over time [19][20]. 3.4 Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The disk price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - Inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, showed different trends over time [25][26][27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production by specification showed different trends over time [29][30][31]. - The operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends over time [32][34]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 in Sichuan, Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Weekly: Displays the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon and its related products over time [38][39]. - Monthly: Displays the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon and its related products over different months [41][42]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon DMC Price and Production Trends - DMC's daily capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, production, and price showed different trends over time [44][45]. Downstream Price Trends - The prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed different trends over time [46][47][48]. Import - Export and Inventory Trends - DMC's import, export, and inventory showed different trends over time [51][52][53]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy Price and Supply Situation - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, import cost, profit, and import - export situation showed different trends over time [54][55]. Inventory and Production Trends - The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, operating rates, and social inventory showed different trends over time [57][58]. Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The monthly production, sales of automobiles, and export of aluminum alloy wheel hubs showed different trends over time [59][60][61]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The cost, price, inventory, production, operating rate, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. Supply - Demand Balance Table - Displays the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon over different months [67][68]. Silicon Wafer Trends - The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers showed different trends over time [70][71]. Battery Cell Trends - The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. Photovoltaic Component Trends - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components showed different trends over time [76][77]. Photovoltaic Accessory Trends - The price, production, import - export of photovoltaic coatings, films, glass, quartz sand, and solder strips showed different trends over time [79][80].

Report Overview - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength analysis [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - The report suggests paying attention to the subsequent warehouse receipt registration situation for industrial silicon and notes that polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation state [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Si2601's closing price was 9,155 yuan/ton, with a - 15 yuan change from T - 1, 450 yuan from T - 5, and 205 yuan from T - 22. PS2601's closing price was 54,950 yuan/ton, with a - 40 yuan change from T - 1 and 4,190 yuan from T - 5. Other data such as volume and open interest also showed various changes [1] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount showed different values when benchmarked against different products, and the same for polysilicon [1] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 9,950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed was 52,300 yuan/ton, with corresponding price changes [1] - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 were - 2,114.5 yuan/ton and - 3,053 yuan/ton respectively, and polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.8 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.8 + 16.8 (the meaning of this expression is not clear), and the industry inventory was 72.6 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 26.1 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions showed different trends [1] - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: Prices and profits of polysilicon - related photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. were presented, along with their price changes [1] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: DMC price was 11,000 yuan/ton, and ADC12 price was 21,300 yuan/ton, with corresponding profit data [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On October 30, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced the list of enterprises meeting the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Specification Conditions" (the first twelve batches), with 129 eligible enterprises in total. Jiangsu had the most (35), and Zhejiang had 21. There were 10 eligible polysilicon enterprises [1][3] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon was both 0, indicating a neutral state [3]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/10/31 China Futures Daily Note Macro News: Meetings between Chinese and US presidents ended, and the two sides jointly suspended measures such as tariffs and export controls. Futures Prices: On Oct 30, equity indices fell while most CGB futures rose. Commodities showed mixed performances with limited ...