Core View - For aluminum, on the supply side, there are still electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia dismantling, and the theoretical starting capacity of the industry is expected to continue to increase; on the demand side, demand is growing steadily, and there may be some production cuts in the short term, but the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits remain high, and low inventory is still the key support for prices. Overseas macro - situation and macro factors may continue to support aluminum prices, and the market is currently showing a strong and high - level shock [3]. - For alumina, in terms of supply, short - term phased supply has decreased, but overall, alumina supply is still in surplus, and fundamental negative factors still exist. On the demand side, the demand growth rate has slowed down, and the ceiling of downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively certain. Currently, the starting capacity of alumina enterprises remains high, and as the enterprise quotation center has shifted upward, the procurement willingness of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased, so the inventory in alumina plants has increased. There are still short - term policy expectations, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Grouped by Content Aluminum Market - **Price and Position**: Information on the closing price and position of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and LME aluminum (3 - month) is presented, including price in yuan/ton and position in hands [5]. - **Supply**: Inner Mongolia has electrolytic aluminum enterprise dismantling, and the industry's theoretical starting capacity is expected to increase. The ceiling policy for domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is clear, and global supply elasticity is insufficient. Cost - side factors such as scarce scrap aluminum and power support also affect supply [3][8]. - **Demand**: Demand is growing steadily, but there may be short - term production cuts. Downstream has certain production cut plans, and the procurement willingness of processing enterprises is low [3][8]. - **Market Situation**: The market is in a high - level and strong shock state. Low inventory and overseas macro - factors support the price [3]. Alumina Market - **Price and Position**: Information on the closing price and position of the alumina futures main contract, as well as alumina monthly spreads, is provided [16][17]. - **Supply**: Short - term phased supply has decreased, but overall supply is still in surplus. Some regional alumina enterprises have elastic production due to profit losses, and domestic new alumina production capacity will gradually show supply pressure [4][9]. - **Demand**: Demand growth has slowed down, and the ceiling of downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is certain. The procurement willingness of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased, and the inventory in alumina plants has increased [4]. - **Market Situation**: There are short - term policy expectations, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: Information on China's bauxite national monthly production, import volume, port inventory, and production by province is presented, including seasonal data [22][23]. - **Alumina**: Data on China's alumina monthly production, production by main origin, weekly starting rate, import volume, and import profit and loss are provided, including seasonal data [24][30][31]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Information on global and China's electrolytic aluminum monthly production, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly production, and net import is given, including seasonal data [32][33]. - **Inventory**: Data on aluminum ingot, aluminum rod, and their combined weekly outbound volume, as well as various inventory data such as aluminum bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, are presented, including seasonal data [35][62][65][67]. Downstream Demand - **Product Output**: Seasonal data on the output of aluminum rods, profiles, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots are provided [39]. - **Starting Rate**: Seasonal data on the weekly and monthly starting rates of various aluminum products are presented, including aluminum plates, foils, and profiles [40][47]. - **Export**: Seasonal data on the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and China's aluminum product export profit are provided [49][51]. - **Related Industries**: Data on related industries such as real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), and power (grid and power source project investment, photovoltaic installation) are presented, including seasonal data [52][55][58][61]. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Price**: Prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas, and European electricity prices are presented [71][72]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data on alumina cost and China's electrolytic aluminum cost and profit are provided [71][72].

研究报告 – PVC 报告 2026 年 1 月 金融研究院 探底回升，宽幅震荡 摘要 2025 年 PVC 市场在国内需求收缩—供给缓慢扩张—出口被动放量—库存 高位钝化—成本中枢下移这一链条中反复寻找均衡点。 今年突出的变化有三点：一个是外需权重显著提升，出口在内需疲弱时承 担了"逆周期稳定器"的角色。二是产能扩张的工艺与区域结构变化，新增产 能更多来自沿海乙烯法及一体化装置，这改变了行业成本曲线的形态与边际供 给弹性。其三，库存从'高位但可消化'转向'高位且黏性'——库存的季节 性波动仍在，但其对价格的边际解释力被出口与成本所部分稀释，交易逻辑更 强调"库存变化率"而非库存绝对水平。 展望 2026 年：价格中枢难以脱离弱内需、强外需、供给弹性收敛这三因 素博弈。我们建议以"供给弹性—需求弹性—贸易弹性"的三维框架来组织交 易与风险管理：供给弹性取决于新增产能兑现、装置检修与环保约束；需求弹 性取决于地产链修复速度以及基建、制造业对冲能力；贸易弹性取决于印度等 关键市场的政策与新增产能节奏。在此框架下，策略上宜更偏向"区间+事件 驱动"，并以基差、月差与跨品种成本逻辑来构建组合。 一、行情回顾 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic products indicates a significant shift in the industry, with the cancellation of VAT export rebates expected to impact pricing and competition dynamics in the solar sector [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, and the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until December 31, 2026, after which it will also be canceled [1]. - The adjustment follows a previous reduction in export rebates for photovoltaic products at the end of 2024, with industry speculation about a complete cancellation since mid-2025 [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The cancellation of export rebates is expected to lead to an increase in photovoltaic product prices, potentially accelerating the industry's consolidation and pushing for upgrades to higher-value and more advanced technology products [1]. - Industry insiders indicate that the current pricing strategy of selling photovoltaic components at or below cost will be challenged, particularly affecting the competitiveness of second and third-tier companies [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the industry has faced intense competition in overseas markets, leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" trend, which has negatively impacted domestic profits and increased the risk of international trade disputes [2]. Group 3: Export Trends - The export structure of Chinese photovoltaic products is shifting from a focus on component exports to upstream product exports, with a reported 13.2% year-on-year decline in export value from January to October 2025, amounting to a decrease of $24.42 billion [4]. - In the first ten months of 2025, the photovoltaic industry exported 218 GW of components, 88 GW of battery cells, and 58 GW of silicon wafers, compared to 206 GW, 46 GW, and 23 GW in the same period of 2024 [5].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity futures market experienced a rebound on January 9, driven by strong performance in precious metals and oil and gas sectors, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1619.62 points, up 0.04% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index also rose to 2234.88 points, reflecting a similar increase of 0.04% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals showed strong recovery, with palladium leading the market with a rise of over 6%, while platinum and gold also rebounded significantly from their intraday lows [3] - The market for palladium is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, influenced by the concentration of demand in automotive catalysts and the rise of electric vehicles, although short-term bullish sentiment may provide some price support [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices surged, with SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil both rising over 3%, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, which raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil production and exports [4] - The market remains focused on the oversupply issue, with expectations that OPEC may increase production in response to rising prices [4] Group 4: Silicon Market Decline - The silicon market faced a sharp decline of over 8% due to regulatory changes and expectations of a return to marginal cost pricing, leading to weakened market sentiment [5] - The shift in regulatory guidance has altered expectations for future silicon capacity clearing, contributing to a significant drop in bullish sentiment previously supported by capacity control [5] Group 5: Nickel Market Trends - Nickel prices continued to decline, with the main contract down 2.67%, primarily due to easing concerns over production cuts from Indonesia [6] - Despite a weak fundamental outlook for nickel, the uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policies may provide some support, leading to expectations of continued price volatility [6] Group 6: Other Commodity Movements - The rubber sector faced downward pressure, with both butadiene rubber and 20 rubber closing down over 2% and 1% respectively [7] - The black series commodities also saw a decline in bullish sentiment, with various products like coking coal, silicon iron, rebar, and hot-rolled coil experiencing different degrees of decrease [7]

Market Overview - The market sentiment is weak, with significant declines in polysilicon prices, which fell by 9% to reach a limit down [2][10] - Coal prices are rising, while shipping rates have dropped by nearly 9% [2][10] Polysilicon Market - The main polysilicon futures contract hit a limit down, closing at 53,610 yuan, marking a nearly one-month low [10][25] - Regulatory changes emphasize a market-driven approach to capacity reduction, shifting expectations from organizational coordination to technological iteration and market competition [4][10] - Weak demand and high inventory levels are limiting high-price transactions, leading to a significant price correction [10][25] Coal Market - The main coking coal futures contract is experiencing increased volatility, closing at 1,190 yuan per ton, still at a one-month high [11][26] - Recent price increases are attributed to market sentiment and funding rather than fundamental changes, with macroeconomic conditions improving [11][26] - Supply-side rumors and reduced coal imports from Mongolia are supporting coal prices, although the market remains cautious about future price increases [12][27] Shipping Market - The main European shipping contract (EC2602) fell by 8.98%, reflecting a lack of pricing power from shipping companies [12][28] - The market is facing pessimistic sentiment due to weak demand and insufficient price increases, with expectations of continued operational control by shipping companies [12][28] - Seasonal pricing strategies may lead to further price reductions as companies seek to maintain vessel utilization rates ahead of the Chinese New Year [12][28]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, supported by rising stock prices and increased investment in related ETFs, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 6, 2026, the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index rose by 3.61%, with key stocks such as Hengli Petrochemical up by 8.13% and Luxi Chemical up by 7.87% [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 3.47%, reaching a latest price of 0.95 yuan [1]. - Over the past eight trading days, the Petrochemical ETF attracted a total of 24.46 million yuan in inflows, with a significant increase of 25 million shares in the past month, bringing the total size to 246 million yuan, a one-year high [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical has continuously raised global prices for core products such as MDI/TDI since December 2025, aligning with price adjustments from international giants like BASF and Dow, driven by industry-wide maintenance and rising raw material costs [1]. - The China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association, in collaboration with the Phosphate Fertilizer Association, held a meeting to ensure the supply of sulfuric acid resources for phosphate fertilizer production, aiming to stabilize agricultural supply for the spring planting season [1]. - The macroeconomic indicators and valuation levels suggest that the chemical sector is likely entering a new upward cycle, supported by ongoing policy guidance for capacity reduction and a global demand recovery, benefiting companies with cost advantages [1]. Group 3: Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 56.73% of the index [2]. - Notable stock performances include Wanhua Chemical at 7.25% increase and China Petroleum at 1.39% increase, with their respective weights in the index being 10.47% and 7.63% [4].

库存端表现亮眼，截至2026年1月4日，PTA社会库存降至289.5万吨，环比减少4.39万吨，处于历史低位 区间，较前期实现显著去化。1—2月受聚酯季节性降负影响，PTA或出现小幅累库，但受益于供应端的 持续收缩，累库规模将显著小于历史同期。低库存对价格的缓冲作用突出，为中期行情筑牢基础。伴随 一季度供应收缩预期兑现及需求端逐步回暖，PTA市场有望在3月后开启去库周期。 需求增长确定性较强 近期PTA期价在突破5330元／吨后步入回调通道，主要受三重因素驱动：一是PX高利润推动装置重 启，引发供应增加预期；二是聚酯环节多数产品陷入亏损，对高价原料形成抵触；三是终端织造市场步 入淡季。叠加前期获利资金离场与短期情绪释放，PTA期价阶段性走弱，但中期供需重构的核心逻辑未 改，价格中枢上移的趋势不变。 PXN价差有望维持强势格局 截至1月5日，PX-石脑油价差升至360美元／吨，同比提升96%；短流程MX-PX价差156美元／吨，同比 提升160%。中短流程盈利修复带动闲置装置加速重启，其中沙特Satorp、日本出光装置已恢复运行，越 南NSRP装置满负荷运转，韩国GS装置计划1月15日重启，累计释放产能363万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where companies are experiencing increased production without corresponding profit growth. The industry's operating revenue profit margin has declined from 8.03% in 2021 to an expected 4.85% in 2024. However, since 2025, some sub-industries have begun to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters, indicating a gradual stabilization and recovery in industry profitability [2][3]. Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry has turned negative since June 2025, with capital expenditures in the basic chemical industry and several sub-industries declining for multiple consecutive quarters. The current expansion cycle in the industry is nearing its end. In September, policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the petrochemical industry were introduced to address low-price and disorderly competition and to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Sub-industries such as silicone, caprolactam, and PTA polyester have responded to these "anti-involution" measures by either issuing or formulating industry guidelines. It is anticipated that there will be stricter approvals for new chemical product capacities, and the elimination of backward production capacity (such as small scale, high energy consumption, and high pollution) will accelerate, effectively alleviating the issue of supply surplus in the petrochemical industry [2][3]. Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to see a moderate recovery due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and pausing balance sheet reductions, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli. Emerging demand from sectors such as new energy, SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel), and AI continues to drive the need for key chemical materials that support technological upgrades in industries [3]. - The overseas chemical capacity reduction, driven by high energy costs and aging facilities, has led to a wave of plant closures in the European chemical industry since 2025. Currently, China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market, with a well-established domestic petrochemical industry chain. As overseas capacity continues to clear and demand is expected to recover, Chinese chemical companies are likely to see an increase in global market share, accelerating the digestion of surplus capacity [3]. Macro and Chemical Product Prices - As of December 2025, the manufacturing PMI index was reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion. The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3927 points, a decrease of 9.4% from 4333 points at the beginning of the year, reflecting a decline in the ex-factory prices of major chemical products [3]. Oil Prices - In 2025, international oil prices exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with Brent crude futures averaging approximately $69.15 per barrel and WTI crude futures averaging about $65.87 per barrel. This fluctuation was influenced by a combination of factors, including OPEC+'s gradual production increases, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic sentiment. OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases at the beginning of 2026 to alleviate surplus pressures after a cumulative increase of 411,000 barrels per day from October to December. The demand from non-OECD countries, along with aviation fuel and petrochemical raw material needs, has become a major support for oil prices. Major institutions have narrowed their demand growth expectations for 2025-2026 to a range of 700,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. Investment Recommendations - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in overall profits due to moderate oil prices and reduced cost fluctuations. The industry is also experiencing a shift towards "reducing oil and increasing chemicals," supported by clear anti-involution policy signals. Recommended companies include China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5][6]. - In the potassium fertilizer sector, potassium salt resources are expected to remain scarce, with a tight balance in global supply and demand over the next 2-3 years. Recommended company: Yara International, which holds significant potassium salt mining rights in Laos [6]. - In the phosphorus chemical sector, the demand for lithium iron phosphate in energy storage is expected to enhance the marginal pull on phosphorus ore demand, leading to a revaluation of phosphorus ore. Recommended companies include Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua [6]. - In the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector, the EU has mandated a gradual increase in SAF blending ratios, with global SAF demand expected to double to 2 million tons by 2025. Recommended company: Zhuoyue New Energy, a leading domestic biodiesel enterprise [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, under the global challenge of debt issues, there are three main ways to address debt: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-driven debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-driven debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-driven debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures. Despite weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI, the net asset return on equity (ROE) of non-financial enterprises has stabilized over several quarters [1]. - The profit share of the eight major advanced manufacturing industries has increased to 38%, while the overseas revenue share of companies operating abroad has risen to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points. These factors are likely to drive the overall ROE of A-shares to recover after stabilization [1]. - Current valuation increases are relatively restrained, with limited overextension. If profits recover, there is still room for valuation improvement. Additionally, the migration of deposits from insurance and high-net-worth individuals will bring incremental capital [1]. Group 2: Investment Direction - The focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear upward trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and is unlikely to see supply release in the short term. Other areas include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1]. - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1].