Report Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The yield of treasury bond cash bonds on Wednesday was strong in the short - term and weak in the ultra - long - term. The yields of 1 - 7Y maturities declined by about 0.40 - 4.0bp, while the 10Y and 30Y yields changed by about - 0.4 and 0.5bp to 1.81% and 2.17% respectively. Treasury bond futures were also strong in the short - term and weak in the ultra - long - term. The TS, TF, and T main contracts rose by 0.10%, 0.16%, and 0.13% respectively, while the TL main contract fell by 0.27%. The weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.54%. [3] - Domestically, in September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to recover due to the low - base effect, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In Q3, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, with a stable growth rate but a slowdown compared to the previous value. In September, industrial added value increased significantly year - on - year, social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to shrink. [3] - Policy - wise, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee pointed out that the current economic development faces a complex environment, emphasizing that the steady - growth policy will continue to exert force, enhancing the endogenous driving force of the economy through expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and stabilizing investment, and requiring the firm completion of the annual economic and social development goals. [3] - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said at the Financial Street Forum that the bond market is currently operating well, and the central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. Overseas, the US CPI in September was lower than expected; ADP data showed that the employment market in October was recovering. The new round of Sino - US trade consultations ended with positive signals, alleviating market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions. [3] - The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading will inject stable liquidity into the market, driving down long - term interest rates by lowering short - term rates, boosting the bullish sentiment in the bond market. The weak fundamentals may push the bond market to fluctuate upwards. It is recommended to take a small - position long - trial strategy. [3] Summary by Directory Futures Disk - T main contract closing price was 108.570, up 0.13%; trading volume was 91,358, an increase of 16,290. TF main contract closing price was 106.070, up 0.16%; trading volume was 99,318, an increase of 31,449. TS main contract closing price was 102.576, up 0.1%; trading volume was 56,118, an increase of 16,695. TL main contract closing price was 115.830, down 0.27%; trading volume was 125,436, an increase of 2,105. [2] Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.31, up 0.04; T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.26, up 0.28. T2512 - 2603 spread was 0.33, up 0.01; TF12 - T12 spread was - 2.50, up 0.02. TF2512 - 2603 spread was 0.13, up 0.01; TS12 - T12 spread was - 5.99, down 0.04. TS2512 - 2603 spread was 0.09, up 0.00; TS12 - TF12 spread was - 3.49, down 0.06. [2] Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 246,279, an increase of 7,086. The long positions of the top 20 were 229,274, an increase of 7,125; the short positions of the top 20 were 244,936, an increase of 7,726; the net short positions of the top 20 were 15,662, an increase of 601. [2] - TF main contract open interest was 149,109, an increase of 10,861. The long positions of the top 20 were 134,888, an increase of 11,395; the short positions of the top 20 were 157,956, an increase of 12,895; the net short positions of the top 20 were 23,068, an increase of 1,500. [2] - TS main contract open interest was 71,222, an increase of 2,282. The long positions of the top 20 were 56,899, an increase of 2,394; the short positions of the top 20 were 64,700, an increase of 3,412; the net short positions of the top 20 were 7,801, an increase of 1,018. [2] - TL main contract open interest was 146,041, a decrease of 1,892. The long positions of the top 20 were 141,200, an increase of 914; the short positions of the top 20 were 158,654, a decrease of 1,625; the net short positions of the top 20 were 17,454, a decrease of 2,539. [2] Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB (4y) was 106.6589, up 0.0971; 250018.IB (4y) was 99.0955, up 0.1290. 250003.IB (4y) was 99.6819, up 0.1426; 240020.IB (4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0843. 220016.IB (1.7y) was 101.9407, up 0.0838; 250012.IB (2y) was 100.1099, up 0.0800. 210005.IB (17y) was 130.7675, down 0.3477; 220008.IB (18y) was 122.7161, down 0.2279. [2] Active Treasury Bonds - The yield of 1 - year bond was 1.4300%, down 0.5bp; 3 - year was 1.4600%, down 5bp; 5 - year was 1.5600%, up 1bp; 7 - year was 1.6725%, down 0.25bp; 10 - year was 1.8130%, up 1.8bp. [2] Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.3515%, up 5.15bp; Shibor overnight was 1.4140%, down 5.5bp. The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5318%, up 5.18bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5120%, down 1.8bp. The 14 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5900%, unchanged; Shibor 14 - day was 1.5590%, down 8.8bp. [2] LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged. [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 557.7 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 138.2 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day. The net investment was 419.5 billion yuan. [2] Industry News - On October 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern. [2] - Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said in a report on financial work that the next step is to prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, strengthen the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, continue to support the debt - to - equity swap of financing platforms, and improve the financing system suitable for the new model of real estate development. [2] - On October 29, the general offices of five departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Action Plan for Improving the Quality of Urban Commerce", aiming to promote the integrated development of online and offline, encourage cooperation between e - commerce and express delivery companies, and improve the efficiency and quality of last - mile delivery. [2] Key Events to Watch - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is held from October 27 to 30. The US Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision (upper limit) as of October 29 at 2:00 on October 30. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The resumption of Treasury bond trading by the central bank has short - term emotional boosting effects on the bond market, but its signaling significance may be greater than the substantial impact. The medium - to - long - term trend of the bond market still awaits the substantial implementation of key policies such as the reform of fund redemption fees and the overall downward shift of the interest rate center brought about by reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The central bank may also adjust its operation intensity and rhythm according to the downward rhythm of market interest rates [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Why the Resumption? - In January 2025, the central bank suspended Treasury bond trading due to the rapid decline of bond market interest rates (the 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped from 2.14% in early November 2024 to 1.63% at the end of January 2025 and once hit a historical low below 1.6%) and the pressure on the RMB exchange rate (the USD/CNY exchange rate once rose above 7.3). The central bank aimed to suppress excessive speculation in the bond market and maintain exchange rate stability [12]. - The reasons for the resumption at the current time include: the bond market has returned to a relatively high level (the 10Y Treasury bond fluctuates in the range of 1.8% - 1.9%); the need to inject liquidity into the market (only one reserve requirement ratio cut this year and year - end seasonal pressure); some short - term bonds bought by the central bank last year may mature this year; and the need to hedge potential supply pressure from policies such as "pre - allocating part of the new local government debt quota for 2026" and "accelerating the implementation of policy - based financial instruments" [13]. Impact on the Bond Market - In terms of the purchase term, the central bank may continue the "buy - short" mode and the necessity of "sell - long" has decreased. Since June, large banks have continuously increased their holdings of short - term interest - rate bonds, which may be preparing for the central bank's operation. Currently, the 10Y Treasury bond yield is at a relatively reasonable level, so the central bank's need to "sell - long" to regulate yields has declined. The bond - buying behavior of large banks can be tracked to judge the central bank's operation [14]. - Although the resumption of Treasury bond trading has boosted market sentiment in the short term (the yield of the active 10Y Treasury bond dropped by 5BP on October 27), this emotional impact may be short - lived and difficult to fundamentally change the bond market's operation logic [14].

人民财讯10月28日电，中信证券研报认为，短期来看，央行恢复国债买卖释放了较大的宽松信号，一方 面宽货币逻辑延续，另一方面未来央行买债操作落地后可能形成买入信号，预计短期10Y国债利率可能 会迎来一轮小幅的中枢下行。然而中长期视角来看，伴随股市赚钱效应持续，风险偏好上行，而债基赎 回费率改革尚无定论，债市长期走势仍然存在较多的不确定性。尤其是伴随股市持续体现赚钱效应，近 两年资产荒支撑利率维持低位的逻辑能否延续值得关注，长期而言利率或维持宽幅的区间震荡格局。预 计债市短期下行空间打开，但中长期运行逻辑没有太大改变。 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The 30 - year minus 10 - year Treasury spread has fully reflected the repair of risk preference, and the 10 - year minus 1 - year Treasury spread has also generally reflected it. The bond market currently has allocation value, but chasing the rise requires caution [3][10]. - The capital market is in a loose state, with stable and low capital prices and little seasonal fluctuation. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - The issuance pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. NCDs have high allocation value at the end of the year and may decline more than expected [4][17]. Summary by Directory 1. How to View the Pricing of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit? - **Bond Market Outlook**: Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The spreads have reflected risk - preference repair, and the bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, and there may be opportunities for monetary easing, but redemption pressure will persist. Chasing the rise of bonds requires caution [3][10]. - **Capital Market Situation**: The capital market is in a loose state, with capital prices at a stable low and little seasonal fluctuation. This is due to the central bank's careful liquidity arrangements and the relatively loose and smooth - flowing bank liabilities. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - **Analysis of NCDs' Net Financing Decline**: Some investors are worried about the continuous negative net financing of NCDs since the third quarter. This decline is consistent with the state of the bank's broad liability gap and is also due to the substitution effect of the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection [13]. - **NCDs' Supply Pressure in the Fourth Quarter**: The issuance pressure of NCDs in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. Although there is still some supply pressure at the end of the year, the probability of negative feedback is not high. The NCDs' interest rate is in a high - allocation - value range and may decline more than expected at the end of the year [4][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. With the initiation of China-US dialogue, Europe's support for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, the bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly last week, but remained very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic data, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. With the low probability of additional treasury bond issuance in Q4, the government bond financing growth rate is expected to continue to decline, and the domestic economy will still face pressure. The 30-10 spread is expected to compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is also expected to compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: The Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8% year-on-year, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. The bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: As of October 26, the spread between 30-year treasury bonds and 10-year treasury bonds was 36BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. Considering the economic data, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. The 30-10 spread is expected to compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is also expected to compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of September 30, the balance of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 23.7802 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: The issuance volume of ultra-long bonds surged last week. A total of 118.1 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, all of which were local government bonds. By term, 12.6 billion yuan had a 15-year term, 37.7 billion yuan had a 20-year term, and 67.8 billion yuan had a 30-year term [18]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The planned issuance volume of ultra-long bonds announced this week is 105.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading of ultra-long bonds was very active last week, with a trading volume of 1.0317 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.5% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly. Compared with the previous two weeks, the trading volume decreased by 47.5 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.3% [27]. - **Yield**: The Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8% year-on-year, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. The bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, reaching 2.09%, 2.20%, 2.21%, and 2.29%. The yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year CDB bonds changed by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, reaching 2.20%, 2.32%, 2.38%, and 2.45% [3][35]. - **Spread Analysis**: The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30-year - 10-year spread of treasury bonds was 36BP, 2BP lower than the previous two weeks, at the 17% quantile since 2010. The spreads between 20-year CDB bonds and treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 12BP and 13BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and -6BP compared to the previous two weeks, at the 10% and 9% quantiles since 2010 [41][46]. 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures - The main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.01 yuan, a decrease of 0.74%. The total trading volume was 693,100 lots (-28,779 lots), and the open interest was 176,100 lots (-8,882 lots). Both the trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous two weeks [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (October 20 - 26), treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. Next week, the main - line logic of the bond market remains unclear, affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and tax payment periods, and is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. However, the adjustment of the bond market should be temporary. After entering November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the bond market should shift its focus to fundamentals, with a repair market emerging [1][2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined this week. As of October 24, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, down 0.044, 0.160, 0.250, and 0.700 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker next week. The adjustment is temporary, and there should be a repair market in November. Currently, opportunities for adjustment buying and band trading can be grasped. Attention should be paid to changes in market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiation results, and the impact of tax payment periods [14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 107 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 107.6278 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 8.4691 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [24][25] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most treasury bond yields rose. As of October 24, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.49%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.21% respectively. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all narrowed [29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 28,761, 52,786, 79,022, and 138,621 lots respectively, down 858, 6,584, 17,299, and 5,756 lots from last week. The open interests were 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1,958, - 1,892, +4,151, and - 672 lots from last week [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, treasury bond futures adjusted slightly, with narrow - range oscillations in basis. IRR was generally lower than the certificate of deposit rate, and it was difficult to grasp positive arbitrage opportunities. Next week, there is still adjustment pressure, but the necessity of short - hedging is not high [43][44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of October 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2512 - 2603 were +0.080, +0.115, +0.330, and +0.290 yuan respectively. Currently, there are few trading opportunities for inter - delivery spread strategies [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 19.81 billion yuan. As of October 25, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.46%, 1.41%, 1.32%, and 1.41% respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.83 trillion yuan, less than last week [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated narrowly. As of October 24, the US dollar index rose 0.39% to 98.9417, and the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.02%. The probability of a US interest - rate cut next week is relatively high [63] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of October 24, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index rose, while the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits showed different changes [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to be weak next week, but the adjustment is temporary. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of adjustment buying [67]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the stable and relatively loose liquidity in the domestic financial market, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducting net withdrawals and injections throughout the week [2][4] - The GDP for the first three quarters of the year reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, while the third quarter saw a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% [4] - The article suggests that the domestic economy is showing signs of marginal weakening, particularly in fixed investment, and anticipates a potential acceleration in monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter [4] Group 2 - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is highlighted as a suitable investment vehicle due to its high credit rating, large scale, and good liquidity, making it a reasonable choice for investors seeking low-risk options [4] - The ETF's characteristics include good liquidity, low credit risk, and lower volatility, making it a favorable tool for short-duration allocations [4] - The article indicates that the bond market may return to being driven by fundamentals, with expectations of declining bond yields as liquidity and economic conditions become more favorable [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The liquidity in the domestic market remains relatively ample, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 244.2 billion yuan last Friday and 64.8 billion yuan on Monday, while also injecting 68.5 billion yuan on Tuesday and 94.7 billion yuan on Wednesday [1] - The 7-day funding rate showed a slight increase, with DR001 remaining stable at 1.32% and DR007 rising by 2 basis points to 1.43% compared to last Friday [1] Group 2: Economic Performance and Outlook - In the first three quarters, the domestic GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, with a quarterly growth of 4.8% in Q3 and a 1.1% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - The economic performance in Q3 showed signs of weakening, particularly in fixed investment, while social financing growth has declined, which is favorable for the bond market [3] - The expectation of monetary policy easing is anticipated, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates in Q4, which would facilitate domestic monetary loosening [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) focuses on interbank market national development bonds, which are characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making them attractive investment options [3] - The product features of the National Development Bank ETF include good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, making it a suitable tool for short-duration allocations [3]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 21, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 159.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 91 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 68.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a balanced funding condition, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions fluctuating around 1.31% [3] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using certificates of deposit and credit bonds, with rates around 1.4%, slightly lower than the previous day [3] - The central bank's shift to net injection is expected to mitigate liquidity risks ahead of tax periods and month-end [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is approximately 1.67%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank government bonds showed slight variations, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.5250%, unchanged from the previous day [9] - The 30-year government bond futures closed up by 0.16%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.05% [12] Group 5: Trust Industry Insights - As of June 2025, the total asset management scale of the trust industry reached 32.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.87 trillion yuan from the previous year, marking a growth rate of 9.7% [12] - This is the first time the trust scale has surpassed 30 trillion yuan, ranking third after insurance asset management and public funds [12] Group 6: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks have accelerated the pace of deposit rate cuts, with some products seeing reductions of up to 80 basis points [13] - There is a phenomenon of "inversion" in deposit rates across different maturities, with some banks offering better rates for shorter-term deposits compared to longer ones [13] Group 7: Real Estate Financing - In September, the total bond financing for the real estate sector amounted to 56.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31% [13] - The average bond financing interest rate was 2.68%, down by 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is experiencing a recovery due to increased risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions, with expectations of policy support and a shift in sentiment following changes in fund redemption rules [1][2] - The 30-year government bond yield has decreased by over 8 basis points, with yields for 30-year and 10-year bonds recorded at 2.0680% and 1.7475% respectively, indicating a positive response in the bond market [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with GDP growth slowing to 4.8% and pressures on both investment and consumption sectors, highlighting the need for further policy intervention [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade relationship is a critical variable influencing bond market trends, with the likelihood of extreme tariff measures being low, suggesting a potential for negotiation rather than escalation [2] - The third quarter has shown a significant decline in investment growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, reflecting ongoing domestic demand issues [4] - The upcoming meetings, including the 20th National Congress, are expected to impact market risk appetite and may lead to more proactive counter-cyclical policies, which could affect bond market sentiment [5][7]