Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the central bank in the bond market, highlighting the mixed performance of the stock market and the bond market, as well as the implications of the central bank's bond purchasing strategy for market sentiment and investor behavior [3][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 292 billion yuan, with a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan after 212.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3]. - The funding rates showed a slight decline, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.48% [3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, with an increase of over 1% in the morning session, while bond yields exhibited divergence, particularly with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.8125% and 1.7975% [5][7]. - The sentiment in the bond market improved compared to the previous day, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a low of 1.7925% during the day [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The article notes that the central bank's potential resumption of bond purchases has become a "quick fix" for bond market bulls, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [5]. - There is a commentary on the evolving understanding of market dynamics, emphasizing that investors are now more influenced by stock market performance, rumors, and market emotions rather than just fundamental, policy, and funding factors [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the price index was under marginal pressure, with both CPI and PPI year-on-year in the negative range. The year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.4%, and the month-on-month was flat. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat [1]. - The year-on-year pressure on CPI and flat month-on-month may be affected by the seasonal weakness of food prices and high base. In the future, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base, while service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. - The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for the first time in six months. The month-on-month turn to flat was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. - The downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is believed that the downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year, the capital side will continue to be loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self-operated allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - In August 2025, CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.4%, month-on-month was flat, both down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase of core CPI continued to expand to 0.9% for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the improvement trend of domestic demand [1]. - The year-on-year decline of CPI food prices has been negative for seven consecutive months. In August 2025, it decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Food and tobacco had a drag of about -0.74 percentage points on CPI year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, mainly driven by industrial consumer goods and service items [1]. - Looking forward, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base. With relevant policies, service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. PPI Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous decline for eight months [1]. - From the sub-items, the year-on-year decline of production materials narrowed, up 1.1 percentage points from July to -3.2%, and the year-on-year decline of living materials slightly expanded, down 0.1 percentage points from July to -1.7% [1]. - The month-on-month turn to flat of PPI was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. Economic and Bond Market Situation - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and will return to around 1.65% in the next six months [1].

Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after two months[6] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%) contributing to a downward pressure on CPI[6] - Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in food prices[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating potential effectiveness of domestic demand policies[6] Group 2: PPI and Economic Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting a potential turning point[11] - The PPI's month-on-month change improved from a decline of 0.2% to flat, ending an eight-month downward trend[12] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the effectiveness of supply-side reforms, particularly in coal and new energy vehicle sectors[11] - Current PPI conditions support a downward trend in interest rates rather than an upward shift, indicating a need for continued policy efforts to stabilize economic recovery[1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent CPI and PPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a decline in CPI and PPI, with specific attention to the structural changes in prices and the implications for the bond market [4][5]. CPI and PPI Summary - In August 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a core CPI increase of 0.9%, indicating a slight upward trend in core inflation [4][5]. - The CPI's month-on-month growth rate was 0%, showing a decline from July's 0.4% [5]. - The PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from July's 3.6% drop, and the month-on-month growth rate was also 0%, marking a halt in the negative trend after eight months [5]. Structural Analysis - The CPI structure revealed that food prices continued to decline, energy prices remained low, and service prices showed an increase in growth [5]. - The PPI's structural differentiation was noted, with upstream extraction prices rising quickly, but the transmission to downstream industrial products was not yet evident [5]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shown a divergence in yield trends since August 2025, with short-term yields stable and long-term yields increasing significantly [6]. - The current liquidity is relatively loose, leading to an optimistic outlook for pure bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.7% [6]. - Convertible bonds have underperformed relative to underlying stocks since August 25, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand and limited supply [6].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: How to View Price Signals in the Bond Market Correction? - Commentary on August Price Data [1] - Report Type: Commentary Report [6] - Chief Analyst: Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Main Viewpoints Data Observation: Characteristics of August Inflation Data - CPI: In August, the CPI year-on-year was -0.4%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month, falling back into the negative range and lower than the market expectation (-0.2%). The CPI month-on-month was 0%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month. The food item dragged down the CPI significantly, while the core CPI continued to rise, significantly pulled by the gold price [2]. - PPI: The PPI year-on-year was -2.9%, with the decline narrowing compared to July but still lower than the market expectation (-2.88%). The PPI month-on-month was 0%, ending the five - month negative trend. The upstream price regulation continued to show its influence, but the price transmission from the production end to the demand end was still not smooth [2][3][4]. In - depth Perspective: Implications of August Price Data - From the perspective of residents' income, the year - on - year decline of the rent level has remained at -0.1% for six consecutive months since March, indicating that the income improvement trend may have stagnated [5]. - In terms of core indicators, the pork price in August dropped year - on - year to -16.1% and month - on - month to -0.5%. The high inventory of breeding sows led to an oversupply of pork, and the decline in pork price also reflected the contraction of demand, which may continue to drag down the CPI [5][7]. - High - frequency data showed that the prices of various commodities declined, and the upward force on the PPI might weaken [7]. Future Outlook: Trends Seen from August Inflation Data - CPI: This month, the CPI declined more than expected, and the support for the core CPI was still weak. The decline in pork price and international oil price may continue to drag down the CPI. Attention should be paid to the boosting effect of policies on the demand side [8]. - PPI: The PPI trend was still dominated by supply - side price regulation, but the upward momentum weakened. Whether the PPI can maintain the current level in the next month depends on the demand - side's ability to absorb [9]. - Bond Market: The CPI and PPI year - on - year were still in the negative range, and the bond market's continuous correction did not match the fundamentals. In the future, the market may return to the fundamentals, and there are still funds waiting to enter the bond market [9][10][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recent risk preference recovery has suppressed the bond market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rising global trade uncertainty have increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. - Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.24%); M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.02%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.76, with a day - on - day increase of 0.31 (+0.32%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1187, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.012 (-0.17%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a day - on - day increase of 0.03 (+2.02%); DR007 is 1.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.03 (+1.83%); R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 (-3.26%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.57, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.51%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.51%) [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On September 9, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.38 yuan, 105.57 yuan, 107.78 yuan, and 115.72 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.02%, - 0.01%, - 0.06%, and - 0.22% [3]. - The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.014 yuan, 0.003 yuan, 0.212 yuan, and - 0.172 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded to 5.6% and 8.8% respectively, and the gap narrowed to 3.2%, indicating abundant liquidity and increased activity of corporate current funds, but weak credit derivative efficiency, continuous contraction of long - term loans of residents and enterprises, and insufficient investment and consumption demand [2]. - On September 9, 2025, the central bank conducted a 247 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.419%, 1.467%, 1.500%, and 1.522% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides multiple spread - related figures, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [31][35][36]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures related to the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [38][41][48]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [50][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [57][60][58]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures related to the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [64][70]. Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds and the treasury bond futures price fluctuates, it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis spread [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 229.1 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 3, with a total bid amount of 229.1 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 229.1 billion yuan. On the same day, 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - Continuous net withdrawals by the central bank do not hinder the gradual easing of the interbank funding market at the beginning of the month. The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions slightly decreased, remaining around 1.31%. The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system stayed unchanged at 1.30%, with supply around 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using certificates of deposit and credit bonds as collateral, with the latest quotes around 1.4%, slightly down from the previous day, while the 7-day rate concentrated around 1.45% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.66%, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day [8]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined. The yields for various government bonds are as follows: - 1Y: 1.3650% - 2Y: 1.3775% - 5Y: 1.5860% - 10Y: 1.7500% - 30Y: 1.9990% [10]. Group 5: Recent Treasury Auctions - The Ministry of Finance's weighted average yields for 63-day, 91-day, and 182-day treasury bonds were 1.2018%, 1.2352%, and 1.3101%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.08, 2.84, and 2.36 [15]. Group 6: Global Macro Insights - According to the latest forecast from South Korea's Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 49.1% this year to 51.6% by 2026, and further to 58% by 2029. The ministry warns that without structural reforms, a fiscal crisis may occur [17].

Report Title - "The Arduous Waiting Period: A New Balance in the Bond Market under the Asset Allocation Mainline - Outlook for the Bond Market in September 2025" [1] Report Date - September 3, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since 2022, the transmission from broad credit to the fundamentals seems to be weakening. The stock - bond seesaw effect since 2025 may be driven by new logic: anti - involution has reversed the macro narrative since 2024, and the rise of the stock market and the improvement of expectations reinforce each other [5][108][165] - The stock - bond seesaw is just an appearance. The deeper reason is that in a low - interest - rate environment, residents' asset allocation behavior has changed substantially. Deposits and pure bonds have entered a low - return range, and funds are seeking more cost - effective alternative assets, increasing the demand for stock - bond hybrid products [8][113][165] - In 2025, the supply of long - duration government bonds has increased more significantly, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand and a steeper term spread [8][132][165] - Currently, the core issue is the lack of continuous buying power from allocation players, and trading players are mainly engaged in speculation [7][165] Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Bond Market Trend from January to Date and Its Macroeconomic Logic - **2025 Q1**: Tight funds and prominent bank liability pressure led to a bond market correction [16] - **2025 Q2**: Repeated tariff expectations, along with potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, caused yields to decline rapidly to a low level and then fluctuate [18] - **2025 July - August**: Anti - involution expectations, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and fund diversion led to a bond market correction. In August, the term spread of treasury bonds expanded, and the duration strategy began to collapse. The credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds and medium - term notes first increased and then decreased [20][22][27] - **Summary**: Since the beginning of the year, long - term interest rates have repeatedly attempted to break through previous lows but failed, and the interest rate bottom has been rising (the bond YTM has shown an arc - bottom pattern since the beginning of the year) [4][39][48] 2. Understanding the Deviation among Funds, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), and the Bond Market - **6 - 8 months**: Overall, funds were loose to support bond issuance, stabilize the economy, and hedge the impact of the stock market on the bond market. After the double cuts in May, the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity net injection from January to August 2025 totaled 3.98 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding historical levels [52][55][100] - **September**: Both medium - and long - term liquidity and CD maturities are high. The first ten days may be an important window to observe the central bank's attitude. The central bank may conduct 3 - month outright reverse repurchases to hedge [68][98][100] - **Deviation since July**: Funds have been loose, but CD prices have remained rigid. The CD price has a seasonal pattern of bottoming out and rising in the third quarter. Rising stock market trading activity, increased net supply of government bonds, and other factors have contributed to this situation [69][88][95] - **CD Pressure Relief**: Focus on whether the central bank conducts 3 - month outright reverse repurchases in early September. Consider whether there will be another double cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter to relieve economic and bank liability pressure [98][100] 3. Revisiting Deposit Transfer and Fund Diversion Effects - **Traditional Logic of the Stock - Bond Seesaw**: In most periods, stocks and bonds show a seesaw relationship. The driving logic is the transmission from broad money to broad credit, with expectations of fundamental improvement leading to a rising stock market, rising interest rates, and narrowing credit spreads [103] - **Resident Wealth Transfer**: It is a stock logic. In a low - interest - rate environment, residents are re - allocating assets. The main destinations of deposit diversion in recent years are likely wealth management and insurance. Residents' direct entry into the stock market may still be in the early stage [109][113][120] - **Stock and Bond Financing Comparison**: In 2024, the supply and demand of stocks were weak, while in 2025, supply increased marginally, but demand increased more significantly. In 2024, the supply of bonds was large and demand was strong, but in 2025, supply continued to increase significantly while demand weakened [132][135][139] - **Role of Allocation Players**: Insurance companies have a weaker preference for the bond market and are more interested in high - dividend assets. They are waiting for better prices in the bond market. Rural commercial banks' bond - buying power has weakened, and the bond investment scale of some accounts has shrunk [140][147][154] - **Role of Trading Players**: Since July 2025, wealth management products have been the main buyers during the bond market adjustment, indicating that the liability side of wealth management may still be stable. Pure bond funds have performed poorly this year and have faced continuous redemption pressure [155][159][163] 4. How Much Risk Has the Bond Market Released? - **Adjustment since July**: The adjustment of long - term interest rates is due to the impact of anti - involution expectations on the bond market and the stock - bond re - balance caused by fund diversion. The widening of the term spread is essentially a correction of pessimistic expectations [12] - **Future Risks to Watch**: Expectations of rising inflation, instability of the liability side of wealth management and funds, and the impact of redemptions [12] - **Indicators to Monitor**: The trend of CDs, the entry strength of allocation players, and the performance of credit spreads. The bond market is still under pressure, and a cautious view is maintained. In September, the bond market may continue to be in an arduous waiting period, and attention should be paid to the structural widening pressure of credit spreads [11][12][100]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The new trust registration regulations are expected to impact approximately 1.82 trillion yuan of non-standard financial products, as the new standards will restrict the pre-registration of trust plans with a single financing party [4][11]. - The recent half-year reports from banks reveal a divergence in performance within the wealth management sector, with some institutions experiencing a growth rate of up to 17% in their existing product scales [4][12]. - The cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.31%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight decline to 1.19% [5][13]. - The overall bond market remains in a fluctuating state, with short-term rates supported by the central bank's liquidity measures, while long-term rates face pressure from external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [5][16]. - The bank wealth management product's net loss rate decreased to 2.11%, down by 0.94 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in the market sentiment [6][21]. Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The implementation of new trust registration standards is set to affect the structure of wealth management products, pushing banks to shift from a "one-to-one" non-standard channel model to a "composite investment" approach for better risk diversification [4][11]. - The performance of wealth management businesses is becoming increasingly polarized, with banks that have established wealth management subsidiaries showing positive growth, while those without are facing contraction [4][12]. Yield Performance - Cash management products maintained a 7-day annualized yield of 1.31%, while money market funds decreased slightly to 1.19%, resulting in a yield differential of 0.13% [5][13]. - Various fixed-income products have shown a rebound in annualized yields, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in the bond market [5][16]. Net Loss Rate Tracking - The net loss rate for bank wealth management products is currently at 2.11%, indicating a decrease and suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [6][21].