Core Viewpoint - Analysts warn that the US dollar may face a triple blow in the coming weeks, exacerbating its seasonal weakness [2][7] Group 1: Factors Affecting the Dollar - The dollar may be negatively impacted by a US Supreme Court ruling declaring tariffs illegal and the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve Chairman [2][7] - If Japan raises interest rates this month, the yen could strengthen significantly against the dollar [2][10] - Deutsche Bank suggests that stronger economic data from other countries could also pressure the dollar as the year ends [2][7] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - December has historically been the worst month for the dollar, as traders often sell dollars to balance returns from other US assets [4][9] - Analysts predict that the dollar could decline by approximately 2% from current levels, potentially returning to third-quarter lows [4][9] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen by 1.5% this quarter, continuing a nearly 1% increase from July to September [5][9] Group 3: Implications of Potential Fed Leadership - The market anticipates that Hassett's leadership at the Federal Reserve could lead to a more dovish policy stance, increasing expectations for rate cuts next year [5][9] - If Hassett is appointed, it could push the dollar to fall below the four-year low of 1.19 against the euro [5][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights strong demand for Japan's 10-year government bond auction, which exceeds the average level of the past 12 months, despite rising market expectations for interest rate hikes [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 3.59, higher than November's 2.97 and the 12-month average of 3.20, indicating robust investor interest [1] - The auction took place following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who suggested that the possibility of a rate hike later this month is being weighed, with financial conditions remaining accommodative post-hike [1] Group 2 - The swap market indicates an approximately 80% chance of a rate hike at the December 19 policy meeting, with over 90% likelihood for January, a significant increase from just 36% a week prior [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance to fund Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's stimulus plan, raising the issuance of 2-year and 5-year government bonds by 300 billion yen each, and increasing treasury bill supply by 6.3 trillion yen [1]

格隆汇12月2日｜日本周二的10年期国债拍卖需求强于过去12个月的平均水平，尽管市场对央行近期加 息的预期不断上升，但较高的收益率水平仍吸引了投资者。投标倍数为3.59，高于11月上次拍卖的2.97 和12个月平均水平3.20。此次拍卖是在日本央行行长植田和男周一发表言论之后进行的，市场认为他的 言论增加了本月晚些时候加息的可能性。植田表示，日本央行将权衡加息的利弊并采取适当行动，并补 充说即使加息后，金融条件仍将保持宽松。目前，掉期市场暗示12月19日政策会议上加息的可能性约为 80%，而1月份加息的可能性则升至90%以上。相比之下，就在一周前，12月加息的可能性仅为36%。与 此同时，日本财务省计划提高短期债务发行量，以帮助资助首相高市早苗的经济刺激方案，将2年期和5 年期国债发行量分别增加3000亿日元，并将国库券供应量增加6.3万亿日元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, with a reading of 48.2, falling short of market expectations and remaining in the contraction zone for the ninth consecutive month. This has implications for the US economy and various financial and commodity markets [12][16][20]. - The expectation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest - rate hike has increased, affecting market risk appetite, causing stocks and commodities to retreat after an initial rise, and keeping the short - term gold price within a volatile range [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products show different trends. For example, steel prices are oscillating stronger, copper prices are expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner, and PTA is in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, worse than expected and in contraction for nine consecutive months. The BOJ governor's hawkish remarks boosted the expectation of a December rate hike, causing stocks and commodities to fall back. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range [12][13]. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price trends are volatile, with increased fluctuations. Be aware of correction risks [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is closely monitoring the commercial real estate exposure of community and regional banks. The US factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in four months, with the manufacturing index dropping to 48.2 [15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to continue to decline in the short term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The BOJ governor signaled a clear interest - rate hike, leading to a rise in Japanese government bond yields and a squeeze on the profit margin of yen carry trades. The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, indicating weak manufacturing performance [19][20]. - Investment advice: The market will experience increased short - term volatility, but maintain a generally bullish outlook [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The approval of public - offering fund products has started a counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. A - shares had a good start in December, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.31% [22][23]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The bond market had a weak rebound, but there is no basis for continuous strengthening [25][26]. - Investment advice: There may be short - term repairs, but the market remains bearish [27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In November 2025, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.0175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.24%. The soybean meal inventory reached 1.2032 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. The future weather and South American production expectations are important variables [28][29]. - Investment advice: Cost support and supply - demand constraints coexist. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile. Continue to monitor China's actual purchases of US soybeans, state reserve trends, and South American weather [29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in November increased by 4.78% year - on - year, indicating that the domestic construction machinery market is in a recovery phase. Tangshan had illegal steel projects, and steel prices are expected to continue to rise slightly in an oscillating manner, but the upside space is limited [30][31][32]. - Investment advice: In the short term, steel prices are expected to rise slightly and remain volatile [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 19.68% month - on - month, and production decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Heavy rain affected the palm oil harvest, and the market expects November to continue to accumulate inventory [34][35]. - Investment advice: Palm oil is expected to remain in the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan, waiting for data guidance [36]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the central - southern market remained stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the recovery is slow. The demand is weakening, with iron - water production continuing to decline [37]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market will be mainly volatile [37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on December 1, 2025, were 30 yuan/ton, - 43 yuan/ton, 97 yuan/ton, and - 6 yuan/ton respectively. The demand for corn starch has recovered, and the supply pressure is expected to remain low [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy for the rice - flour price difference [39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On December 1, the domestic corn average price was 2,292 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The spot market is strong, while the futures market is falling back. The 01 contract is not suitable for short - selling, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 03 contract [40][41]. - Investment advice: Do not short the 01 contract. Consider short - selling the 03 contract on rallies with a light position. Pay attention to the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company signed an iron - ore purchase contract with Trafigura. The iron - ore price remains high and volatile, with the inventory expected to increase by 10 million tons to 160 million tons in December [42]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile, with limited upside potential [42]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - South Africa's coal exports in October were 7.2052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.18%. After the replenishment, the steam - coal price has fallen back, and it is expected to remain high and volatile in December - January [43]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain high and volatile and decline seasonally from December to January [43]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and trading limit for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract. The polysilicon supply - demand contradiction has worsened, and the battery - sheet price has continued to fall [44][45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price may fall significantly, but the spot price is expected to remain flat. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A company plans to build 28 33MVA submerged - arc furnaces. The industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [47][49]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Look for range - trading opportunities [49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Minmetals Resources' Izok Corridor project exploration made progress, and a copper smelter in Kamoa - Kakula was ignited. The macro - level support may weaken, but the domestic inventory reduction boosts bullish sentiment [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner. Recommend buying on dips. Pay attention to the widening of the C - L spread [52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A 60,000 - ton power - battery recycling project in Yichang was launched. The production of lithium carbonate decreased last week, and the demand in the off - season may weaken. The inventory reduction rate is expected to slow down in December [53][54]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rallies in the short term and buying on dips after the off - season risks are released [54]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the social lead inventory reached a one - month low. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented. The lead price is expected to rise, and consider buying on dips [55][56][57]. - Investment advice: Consider buying lead on dips in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and cross - border trades [57]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory increased. A zinc - lead mine in Bejaia is planned to start production. The zinc price is expected to be bullish, but there are risks of low market attention and macro - level fluctuations [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Look for buying opportunities on dips. Hold long positions in the calendar spread. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - border trades [60]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel project's production is normal in December. The refined nickel supply is expected to be in surplus, but the market is undervalued. Consider buying on dips [61][62]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips with a light position. Evaluate the impact of Indonesian resource contraction in the medium term [62]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin showed a premium. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. The overseas supply may be affected by geopolitical risks, and the downstream demand is weak [63]. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. Consider buying on dips but avoid chasing the market [63]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and the cost is supported by geopolitical factors. Pay attention to the winter - storage policy [64][65]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term [66]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound - fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased to 37.06%. The urea futures price rebounded, and the inventory decreased. The demand is the key factor for the future price [66][67]. - Investment advice: The reduction of urea inventory strengthens the support for the futures price. Pay attention to the macro - level driving force after December [68]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure - benzene inventory in East China increased. The styrene and pure - benzene prices are oscillating. The demand is weak, but there are expectations of supply reduction. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans. Consider buying far - month contracts on dips if there is a panic sell - off in December [72]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased, and the market negotiation was light. The supply decreased due to plant maintenance, and the demand remained stable. The year - end supply - demand is in a tight - balance state [73]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - term strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to the crude - oil price risk. Consider long positions in the PTA 5 - 9 spread and PTA - oil spread [74]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda price in Shandong decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The downstream alumina market has a negative impact on caustic - soda demand [75][76]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to whether profit compression will lead to supply reduction [76]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle - chip factory export prices increased. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [77][78]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short term. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [78]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash factory inventory decreased slightly. The Far Xing Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the supply. The demand from the float - glass industry has decreased [79][80]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish view on soda ash in the medium term. Consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [80]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in Hubei increased slightly. The futures price decreased, and the inventory is still high. The short - term rebound space is limited [81]. - Investment advice: Be cautious and wait - and - see. Adopt a bearish view in the medium term and consider shorting on rallies [81]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The acquisition of a Spanish terminal by Hutchison Ports is blocked. The container freight rate is expected to be volatile, and there is a lack of strong bullish factors [82][83]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term [84].

Core Points - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 1000 points, while the yen appreciated [1] - The decline was triggered by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's strong signal regarding the potential for interest rate hikes in the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate hike increased following Ueda's comments, leading to a rise in the yen and Japanese government bond yields [2] Group 1 - Ueda indicated that the Bank of Japan will weigh the pros and cons of raising interest rates at the next monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 18-19 [2] - He emphasized that any rate hike would only adjust the degree of monetary easing, with actual interest rates remaining very low [2] - Analysts interpreted Ueda's speech as preparation for a December rate hike, suggesting he has likely secured government support for this move [2][3] Group 2 - Some economic advisors to the Japanese government believe that a rate hike in January would be more appropriate to avoid sending mixed signals after the recent large fiscal stimulus [2][3] - Persistent inflation and a weak yen are providing support for an earlier rate hike, despite the government's cautious stance [3] - The yen strengthened to 155.49 against the dollar following Ueda's speech, although it remains close to levels that previously triggered government intervention [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's stock and bond markets are experiencing significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping sharply due to renewed interest rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Stock Market - On December 1, the Nikkei 225 index fell over 2% to 49,224.94 points, with an intraday drop exceeding 1,000 points, ultimately closing down 1.89% at 49,303.28 points [1] Group 2: Bond Market - Japanese government bonds plummeted as expectations for interest rate hikes resurfaced, with the 2-year bond yield surpassing 1% for the first time since 2008 [1] - The 5-year bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.35%, and the 10-year bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 1.85%, both reaching their highest levels since June 2008 [1] Group 3: Central Bank Signals - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December has risen to 64%, with Governor Kazuo Ueda providing the clearest signal yet that a rate increase may occur this month [1] - Ueda indicated that any rate hike would merely adjust the degree of monetary easing, emphasizing the importance of making the correct decision regarding action [1] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market continues to decline, with Bitcoin dropping to around $86,000, down 5.34% for the day, while Ethereum fell over 5% and other cryptocurrencies like Solana and Dogecoin dropped more than 7% [1] - According to Coinglass, over 210,000 traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $639 million [1]

日本国债因加息预期重燃而暴跌。 今天日本债券市场上，3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，作为长期利率指标的10年期新发国债收益率一度升至1.840%， 这 是自2008年6月以来的最高水平。 与此同时， 日经225指数高开低走，盘中跌幅超2%，跌超千点。 | < W | | | 日经225(N225) | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12-01 14:30:26 | | | | | | | 49242.31 | | 昨收 | 50253.91 | 成交额 | 0 | | -1011.60 -2.01% | | 今井 | 50318.59 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上 涨 | 42 | 中 香 | 3 | 下 跌 | 180 | | 最高价 | 50366.74 | 市盈率 | 20.6 | 近20日 | -4.06% | | 最低价 | 49224.01 | 市净率 | 2.35 | 今年来 | 23.43% | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 高K | 月K | 日名 0 | | 叠加 51283.81 | | | | | 2.05% | | | ...

1日，日经225指数高开低走，盘中跌幅超2%，跌超千点。Wind数据显示，截至发稿，日经225指数报49242.31点，跌2.01%。板块方面，科技股领跌，爱 德万测试跌超4%，索尼跌近4%。 市场方面，日本国债因加息预期重燃而暴跌。据证券时报，该国3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至1.85%，2年期国债收益率 升至2008年以来最高水平。 | < W | | | 日经225(N225) | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12-01 14:30:26 | | | | | | | 49242.31 | | 昨收 | 50253.91 | 成交额 | 0 | | -1011.60 -2.01% | | 今开 | 50318.59 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上 涨 | 42 | 平 泉 | 3 | 下 跌 | 180 | | 最高价 | 50366.74 | 南留率 | 20.6 | 近20日 | -4.06% | | 最低价 | 49224.01 | 南舟率 | 2.35 | 今年来 | 23.43% | | 分时 | 五 ...

Group 1 - The market anticipates a 76% probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates at the next policy meeting on December 19, with expectations for January exceeding 90% [1][5] - The Japanese yen has weakened significantly, prompting increased market speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [1][6] - Following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, the dollar fell against the yen, and the Japanese stock market saw gains, indicating a positive market reaction to potential policy changes [2][4] Group 2 - Ueda emphasized the need for a timely adjustment of monetary policy to achieve price stability, suggesting a shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy [4][5] - The internal support for interest rate hikes within the Bank of Japan is growing, with several board members indicating that the timing for a rate increase is approaching [4][6] - The Japanese government plans to increase the issuance of short-term government bonds to fund economic initiatives, which may put pressure on short-term bond yields [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that Japan could be a favorable investment story in the coming years, particularly for mid-cap stocks, due to supportive government policies [2][4] - The market is cautious about Japanese government bonds due to expected inflation and increased bond issuance, which could disrupt supply-demand balance [6] - The recent comments from government officials indicate a shift in attitude towards the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes, aligning with market expectations [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The year 2023 is seen as a watershed for the gold industry, with expectations that it will be the best year for gold performance since 1979 [2] - As of the market close on Wednesday, gold prices reached a high of $4,162.67 per ounce, up approximately 59% year-to-date [3] - Hedley Widdup from Lion Selection Group believes that the conditions for a "sustained bull market" in gold are in place, driven by central bank purchases [4][5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Gold Mining - Lion Selection Group is particularly optimistic about smaller-cap gold mining companies in the development stage, which have outperformed larger producers [6] - As of early August, gold companies in the assessment and development phase saw an overall stock price increase of 81%, compared to a 40% increase for producers [6] - Companies like Ausgold and Saturn Metals have successfully raised significant capital, indicating strong investor interest and liquidity in the ASX gold sector [6][7] Group 3: Future Prospects for Gold Developers - Widdup is closely monitoring gold developers with large production potential, such as Brightstar Resources and Medallion Metals, which are expected to enter production by 2026 [7] - The rising gold prices have enabled these companies to raise funds and attract investor attention, enhancing their operational capabilities [7] Group 4: Theta Gold Mines Progress - Theta Gold Mines Limited is advancing its TGME gold mine project in South Africa, achieving key milestones in construction and maintaining its timeline for production by the end of 2026 [20][21] - The project has completed significant earthworks and is moving into the next phases of construction, with a focus on job creation and local economic development [22][24] - The company has raised approximately AUD 51.4 million to support the TGME project, further solidifying its financial backing [24][25]