1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating [2][4] - Rubber: Oscillating [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [5] - Polyolefin: Oscillating [5] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes, and are expected to continue oscillating [1]. - The fuel oil market is mainly driven by the cost - end crude oil, with the LU - FU spread reaching a high level this year, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by supply and demand factors and follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The polyester market is under pressure due to factors such as weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market is affected by export volume and production, and is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The methanol market is expected to return to an oscillating trend due to factors such as device load and downstream profit [5]. - The polyolefin market has limited supply changes, and demand is at the bottom, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has limited fundamental changes, and the upward rebound space is not large [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. API data showed an increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories. Trump's tariff measures may suppress oil prices. However, domestic energy production and processing have positive trends, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market remained stable. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for oscillation, and attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell slightly. The adjustment of the fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy has not yet shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures fell. The downstream demand is weak, the inventory of polyester factories is increasing, and the prices of polyester products are under pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of some rubber varieties fluctuated. The rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the first half of 2025, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is affected by factors such as device load and downstream profit, and is expected to return to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are affected by supply and demand. Supply changes are limited, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has a narrow - range adjustment. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the EU and Mexico starting from August 1, which may suppress global fuel demand and oil prices [1][9]. - API data shows that as of the week of July 11, US API crude oil and refined product inventories increased [1][9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It includes the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit chart of PP, etc. [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff news, with high uncertainty in the US employment market, inflation, and retail sales. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of the month is limited, and risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Different metals have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, copper prices may show a high - fall trend, aluminum has limited upward space, zinc continues to be short - allocated, lead is expected to be strongly volatile, nickel and stainless steel are under pressure, tin continues to be short - allocated, and some non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have certain rebound trends [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Copper - Market situation: The CSPT group did not set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate this quarter, with a large contradiction between mining and smelting. The US tariff policy may affect copper prices, and the spread between refined and scrap copper has changed. The LME 3 - month spot premium has turned into a discount of $60. The market is likely to show a high - fall trend [1]. - Investment strategy: Short positions are held. Consider selling 2508 contract call options with an exercise price of 80,000 and buying 2508 contract put options with an exercise price of 76,000 in a 1:2 ratio [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Market situation: The rainy season in Guinea has come, but due to the large increase in domestic bauxite imports and inventory recovery, the market rumors of the resumption of production of Shunda Mining. The operating capacity of alumina has remained at 93.55 million tons, and the industry's total inventory is stable. The demand for aluminum is affected by the traditional off - season, high - cost aluminum, and high - temperature weather. The inventory has increased, and the price has adjusted [1]. - Investment strategy: Hold the short - allocation strategy for Shanghai aluminum [1]. Zinc - Market situation: After the LME zinc rebounded back to the 60 - day moving average last week, the domestic inventory increased, and the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was insufficient. As a mine - end pricing variety, it continues the short - allocation strategy, and observe the rhythm of short - sellers' second entry [1]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead fluctuated, and the Shanghai lead stepped back on the key level of 17,000. The market divergence increased. The supply of domestic lead ore is tight, and the supply of lead ingots is restricted by raw materials. The demand is in the off - season, but there is some consumption expectation. The cost provides strong support, and the impact of tariffs is repeated [1]. - Investment strategy: Long positions are held at 17,000 [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market situation: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with large inventory, weak demand, and reduced cost support. The price of ferronickel has increased, and the inventory has also increased [1]. - Investment strategy: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - sellers should beware [1]. Tin - Market situation: The LME tin inventory is around 2,000 tons, providing support for tin prices. The supply in Central Africa has decreased, and domestic processing fees are tight. The domestic downstream has a certain replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. The export of some products has decreased. The domestic tin market continues the previous theme, with high domestic and low external visible inventory [1]. - Investment strategy: Continue the short - allocation strategy. Consider short - selling contracts in the high - level range of 258,000 - 272,000 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The trading atmosphere of lithium carbonate has rebounded, with active trading. The spot price of lithium battery has risks, and the procurement is relatively cautious [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, and the demand has increased marginally. The production in Xinjiang has continued to decline, and the marginal increase in Yunnan in July is limited. The inventory has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Polysilicon - Market situation: The price of polysilicon has broken through 40,000 yuan/ton. The production in July has exceeded the previous range, and the inventory has increased. The production of batteries has continued to decline, and the price is affected by polysilicon [1]. - Investment strategy: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and policy expectations are the main trading logic [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating upwards [1][2] - Iron ore: Oscillating [3][4] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upwards [5][6][7] - Thermal coal: Oscillating upwards in the short - term, supply remains loose in the long - term [8] Core Views - The expectation of policy combinations persists, boosting market sentiment. The off - season demand for steel is better than expected, and the inventory accumulation is delayed. Iron ore shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern in the long run, while coking coal and coke are in a supply - tight situation. Thermal coal prices are oscillating upwards in the short term due to increased demand in high - temperature weather, with a long - term supply - loose pattern [1][3][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures closed stronger at the end of trading yesterday, with the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil rising. Spot trading was average, with prices basically stable and spot transactions reaching 10580 tons. China's steel exports in the first half of this year were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Policy expectations persist, and exports exceed expectations, enhancing steel consumption. The off - season demand is better than expected, and inventory accumulation is delayed. Key factors to watch include basis repair, policy implementation, overseas tariffs, and hedging funds [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate upwards [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total accumulated transactions at major ports in the country were 955000 tons, a 20.43% increase from the previous day; the accumulated transactions of forward - looking spot goods were 1.69 million tons, a 16.15% increase. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly this period, with a total shipment of 29.87 million tons. The shipment from Brazil increased significantly, while the shipment from non - mainstream regions decreased significantly. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.621 million tons, an increase of 1.782 million tons from the previous period [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Although the molten iron output has decreased, it remains at a relatively high level in the same period. The consumption of iron ore shows good resilience. In the short term, prices rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but in the long run, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Key factors to watch include the molten iron output and inventory changes during the off - season [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures showed mixed performance yesterday, mainly oscillating. The import coal ports were closed, inventory was continuously depleted, and traders were more inclined to hold prices [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The first round of price increases for coke is gradually being implemented. Some coking plants are slightly in the red, and the supply has decreased. On the demand side, molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level in the same period, and steel mills' profits are acceptable. Coke inventory has slightly increased. For coking coal, the supply has recovered, but the resumption of production is slow. On the demand side, trading is more active, and the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has increased, leading to a decrease in coal mine inventory. Overall, the supply of coking coal and coke is tight [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate upwards [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: At the production sites, the procurement prices of large - scale purchasers at stations have increased, and the surrounding stations are actively transporting coal. Most coal mines with high cost - effectiveness are selling smoothly, and prices are rising steadily. With the continuous high - temperature weather, the power load has increased, and the pit - mouth coal prices continue to rise. At ports, the upstream shipping costs have increased, there is a structural shortage at ports, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement has been completed in stages. As the high - temperature range expands, coal consumption increases, and traders have positive expectations for the peak season, providing some support for market prices. For imported coal, the price of high - calorie Australian coal is inverted compared with domestic winning bids, with low liquidity. Indonesian low - calorie coal has obvious cost - effectiveness advantages, and there are many downstream tenders [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In July, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and production capacity is gradually being released. With the rising temperature, demand has strengthened. In the short term, coal prices are oscillating upwards. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Key factors to watch include the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8]

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The market demand is weak, but the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. Considering the increase in imports later, the domestic supply and demand are marginally loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view after the rebound and pay attention to the pressure at 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of white sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of white sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The main contract holding volume increased by 4.46%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.83% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the spot price in Kunming is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis increased by 2.04%, and the Kunming basis increased by 26.67% [1]. - **Industrial Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07% year-on-year. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 12.23% year-on-year, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.29% year-on-year [1][3]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season is difficult to solve before the new cotton is listed, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly in a stable range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract holding volume increased by 0.80%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.32% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis increased by 5.19%, and the 3128B - 05 contract basis increased by 5.71% [4]. - **Industrial Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month-on-month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, the import volume decreased by 33.3% month-on-month, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. However, due to the high temperature, the egg weight and laying rate have declined, and the supply of large eggs is tight. The egg price has dropped to a phased low, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected that the egg price may rise this week, but the increase may be limited [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 4.55% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39%. The basis increased by 3.95% [7]. - **Industrial Situation**: The price of day-old chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 2.13%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 4.37%, and the breeding profit decreased by 20.60% [7]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, due to concerns about seasonal production growth, the futures price may face resistance and fall back. For soybean oil, the speculation on the US biodiesel theme has ended, and the market is affected by both positive and negative factors, showing a narrow - range shock adjustment [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51%; the price of 01509 is 9439, down 0.31% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50%; the price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9610, up 0.31% [10]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the inventory of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The weather in the US soybean producing areas is good, and the market is worried about the impact of US tariffs. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the开机 rate is improving. The soybean meal basis is stable, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84%; the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract is 4101, down 0.10%; the price of the soybean No. 2 main contract is 3610, up 0.61% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80%; the price of Harbin soybeans is 3960, unchanged; the price of Jiangsu imported soybeans is 3660, unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in September increased, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the market sentiment is weak, but as the remaining grain decreases, the downward space for the corn price is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the corn price. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306, down 0.60%; the price of corn starch 2509 is 2656, down 0.78% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou remained unchanged, the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430, down 0.41%, the Changchun spot price of corn starch is 2700, unchanged, and the Weifang spot price is 2920, unchanged [13]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import corn auction continued, the downstream deep - processing entered the seasonal maintenance period, and the wheat substitution squeezed the corn demand [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract decreased by 14.74%, the price of pig 2511 is 13645, down 0.37%, the price of pig 2509 is 14345, down 0.21%, and the 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.94% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with prices in different regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industrial Situation**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.59%, the white - striped pork price remained unchanged, the price of piglets decreased by 3.20%, the price of sows remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.31%, the self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34% [17].

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean oil market is undergoing significant changes due to a surge in biofuel demand and a sharp decline in export volumes, leading to a tight supply-demand situation in the soybean oil market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for biofuels has increased dramatically, impacting the soybean oil market [1] - Export volumes of soybean oil have decreased significantly, contributing to the tightening of the market [1] Group 2: Price Fluctuations - The current supply-demand imbalance raises questions about future price movements in the soybean oil market [1]

Core Insights - Asian palm oil prices have surged to a two-month high due to declining production and increasing demand [1] - The market's supply and demand dynamics are expected to significantly influence future price trends [1] - Seasonal factors are anticipated to play a role in shaping market conditions [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump announced a 50% import tariff on copper, effective August 1, 2025. The tariff is expected to cover copper base products and derivatives. The COMEX - LME copper price spread is likely to widen further, but the final spread ratio may be less than 50% due to the large - scale pre - import of copper by the US since March. Before August 1, copper will continue to flow into the US, and after August, US copper import demand is expected to decrease significantly, increasing the copper supply in non - US markets [3][38]. - Currently, the copper mine supply remains tight, but the long - term tightness is slightly weaker than expected. The scrap copper supply is tight, strongly supporting prices, but this support may weaken if China's imports increase after the US tariff takes effect. The short - term supply of refined copper remains high, while demand faces pressure as the downstream enters the off - season and new photovoltaic and wind power installations peak [3][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US Plan to Impose a 50% Import Tariff on Copper - On February 26, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to initiate a 232 investigation on copper. On July 8, he publicly threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and on July 10, he officially announced the 50% tariff on copper, effective August 1, 2025 [5]. 3.2 Analysis of the Impact of the US Copper Tariff - **Tariff Scope**: It is expected that copper base products and derivatives such as cables, electrical equipment, and home appliances may be subject to the tariff. However, due to the relatively small proportion of raw materials in home appliances (e.g., copper cost accounts for about 20% of air - conditioners), the impact on home appliances is smaller than that on copper base products [6]. - **Regional Price Spread**: Before the 50% tariff announcement, the COMEX - LME copper spread mostly fluctuated between 700 - 1500 dollars/ton, indicating a market - expected US copper tariff of 10 - 20%. After the 50% tariff news, the spread widened to about 2560 dollars/ton on July 9, equivalent to about 26.5% of the LME copper price. Although the spread has not fully reflected the 50% tariff, it is likely to widen further, but the final spread ratio may be less than 50% due to pre - imports [7]. - **Impact on Copper Flows**: Since the 232 investigation in late February, copper has flowed into the US, tightening the non - US supply. Before August 1, copper that can reach the US will continue to flow in, with a higher probability of copper from the Americas. After August, US copper import demand is expected to decrease, increasing the non - US copper supply [12][13]. 3.3 Current Situation of the Copper Market Fundamentals - **Copper Mines**: In May, Chile's copper production was at a multi - year high, and Peru's production in April decreased seasonally. The global copper mine supply growth rate is expected to be further adjusted downwards due to a production guidance cut by Ivanhoe Mines. The copper concentrate TC has been weakening, and the semi - annual long - term TC of 0 dollars/ton indicates long - term supply tightness, but less than expected [19]. - **Scrap Copper**: Since June, the domestic refined - scrap copper spread has widened, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased. The supply of domestic scrap copper has been relatively tight since early July, strongly supporting copper prices. However, this support may weaken if China's imports increase after the US tariff takes effect [22][26]. - **Refined Copper**: In June, domestic refined copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased by over 10% year - on - year. It is expected to rise in July - August. Overseas production is expected to remain low in the short term. In June, domestic apparent consumption increased rapidly year - on - year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand for clean energy - related copper is expected to weaken [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has eased, and the black market has shifted from a volatile to a stronger trend. The steel market is facing weak demand during the off - season, which suppresses steel prices. The iron ore market shows a short - term rebound but a long - term supply - demand loosening pattern. The coking coal and coke market has tightened supply, leading to upward price movements. The thermal coal market has short - term price fluctuations and a long - term supply - loose situation [1][3][5][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3063 yuan/ton and 3190 yuan/ton respectively. The spot steel market has general transactions, with rebar being weak and prices remaining stable. The national building materials transaction volume is 8.9 tons. The steel production and demand have decreased, and the total inventory has increased. The hot - rolled coil production has slightly increased, consumption has decreased, and inventory has slightly increased. The export of plates remains high, but there are concerns about future consumption. The market sentiment has been boosted by the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, but the lack of speculative demand and off - season weak demand will continue to suppress steel prices [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore has a slight increase, with the main 2509 contract closing at 736.5 yuan/ton, a 0.68% increase. The spot price of imported iron ore in Tangshan Port has a slight increase, and the market trading sentiment is not good. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports is 94.2 tons, a 5.71% decrease from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume is 156.0 tons. The global iron ore shipment has temporarily declined, and the molten iron production has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. In the short term, the iron ore price has rebounded, and the discount on the futures market has been significantly repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the futures market have increased. The spot price of coking coal in the main production areas is stable, and the terminal procurement is on - demand. The import market is stable and strong. The supply of coking coal has tightened, and the industry inventory is at a low level. The demand for coke has certain support, and the port inventory has been decreasing. Policy expectations also support the market [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of thermal coal in the main production areas is volatile. The procurement of chemical and large - scale terminal users is stable, and the port market is stable. The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the trade volume has decreased. The port inventory is declining, and the high - quality supply has a firm price. The high temperature in the south has increased the power demand, and the price has a certain support. The high - calorie Australian coal has a price inversion, while the low - calorie Indonesian coal has a cost - effective advantage. In July, the coal production capacity is gradually released, and the demand is expected to increase in the short term. In the long term, the supply is loose [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].