本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 甚至美国方面，特朗普在昨天的社交媒体上还非常兴奋地谈到，说会议进展比较顺利。他还主动提出， 对中国商品的关税如果降到80%，可能是一个比较合适的水平。美国方面一直在释放积极信号。而中国 方面的表态一直比较谨慎，只是说还在继续谈，呼吁美国方面用实际行动来证明自己的诚意，简单来说 就是不要只说不做，直接把关税降下来。 1、贸易会谈没有飞出黑天鹅，市场下周或平稳回应 正如我们刚才所说，这场谈判只要没有坏消息发生，就是好消息，对于投资市场来说，是一种相对比较 平稳的状态，对于稳定市场预期有一定帮助。美国方面不管有没有谈出实质性结果，都率先宣布自己得 到了面子。而中国方面，在这次硬碰硬的过程中，里子也没有丢。大家可以看到，中国刚刚发布的4月 份出口数据比较漂亮。4月份中国出口虽然遭遇了这么大的关税压力，但同比增长了8.1%，比预期高出 好几倍。 1、贸易会谈没有飞出黑天鹅，市场下周或平稳回应 这个周末发生了一些事情，结果都比预期稍微好一点。首先是中美高层会谈，这是关于对外贸易的。我 们不能期待这次会谈会有一个重大的贸易框架出来，只能说不要出现意外，不要出现黑天鹅事件，比如 会议 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the monetary policies and economic conditions of the United States and China, particularly in relation to their bond markets and inflation dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments - **Divergent Monetary Policy Goals**: Both the US and China have aligned on the timing of monetary easing, but their objectives differ significantly. The US aims to reduce high inflation (with a core CPI reaching 6% in 2023), while China seeks to boost demand and escape negative CPI growth. The core CPI differential has narrowed to 2.3% but remains high, indicating a clear demand disparity [1][2][3]. - **Policy Focus**: The US Federal Reserve prioritizes inflation and employment, making decisions based on economic conditions. In contrast, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) pursues multiple goals, including stable growth, stable exchange rates, and risk prevention, emphasizing cross-cycle adjustments [1][4]. - **Market Expectations vs. Official Predictions**: Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75 basis points starting in July are more optimistic than the Fed's own forecast of 50 basis points. The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to manifest in the coming months, but the recession effects may take longer to materialize [1][5][8]. - **Inflation vs. Employment Conflict**: Fed Chair Powell indicated that in cases of conflict between inflation and employment targets, controlling inflation takes precedence. This suggests a current focus on the inflationary effects of tariffs rather than immediate recession risks [6][7]. - **Supply and Demand Issues**: The US faces supply shortages and aims to enhance domestic production through manufacturing return and tariff policies. Conversely, China is grappling with insufficient demand and is looking to stabilize expectations and increase consumer income to boost consumption [3][9]. - **Chinese Bond Market Outlook**: The Chinese bond market is expected to experience limited interest rate fluctuations in the short term, with no significant policy changes anticipated following the April Politburo meeting. The impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports is becoming evident, but economic data may not provide further clarity until later in the year [10][13]. - **Liquidity Environment**: The current liquidity environment is relatively tight compared to the previous year, which may hinder a smooth downward trend in bond yields. The market is characterized by high prices and limited debt relief for major banks [11]. - **Potential for Coordinated Rate Cuts**: There is little likelihood of coordinated rate cuts between the US and China in the near term, as the PBOC is not expected to lower rates ahead of the Fed's actions [12]. - **Future Predictions for Bond Markets**: The Chinese bond market is expected to show narrow fluctuations without significant adjustments, even if US-China negotiations progress positively. The pricing of government bonds is not entirely market-driven, which may lead to slower adjustments [13][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Economic Data Limitations**: The PMI data and other economic indicators may not fully reflect the underlying economic conditions due to their subjective nature, and significant changes may not be evident until later in the year [10]. - **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment is more influenced by confidence factors rather than actual data, indicating a potential disconnect between market expectations and economic realities [8].

期货热点追踪 铜价波动加剧：贸易谈判在即，市场预期如何？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

期货热点追踪 基金持仓转为净多头，美豆期货走高！市场预期发生了哪些变化？ 相关链接 ...