Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which has led to mixed reactions in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The bond futures market showed strong performance, reflecting intense speculation among investors regarding the announcement [1]. - Analysts noted that the demand for existing bonds increased post-announcement, but expectations for a significant decline in interest rates in the short term should be tempered [1]. - The potential widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds could be around 10 basis points due to the VAT implications, although uncertainties remain [1]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The resumption of VAT is expected to narrow the yield spread between credit bonds and interest rate bonds by 30 to 50 basis points, as the tax-exempt advantage of interest rate bonds diminishes [1]. - New government bonds may see an increase in issuance rates by 5 to 10 basis points to compensate for the tax burden, while the attractiveness of existing bonds may rise [1]. - Different tax rates applicable to various financial institutions could lead to differentiated investment behaviors, potentially attracting bank funds into interest rate bonds through broader fund products [1]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Post-August 8, attention will be on the auction results of newly issued government bonds and other influencing factors such as real estate policy adjustments and inflation stabilization [2]. - The macroeconomic environment and market sentiment are expected to stabilize following recent negotiations and meetings, with a focus on domestic fundamentals and liquidity changes [2]. - The weak performance of government bond futures in July was attributed to significant sell-offs triggered by rising stock and commodity markets rather than fundamental changes [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs for the year, driven by liquidity and market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The financing balance has been steadily increasing since the end of June, surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan [1] - The rising stock market has led to an expansion of the market's profit-making effect, creating a positive feedback loop [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention is required on the market's support strength near key levels, with an expectation for the market to maintain a high-level oscillation in August [1] - Structural allocation opportunities should be monitored [1]

Policy Focus - The government will strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems [1] - The government will normalize policy research and reserve measures [1] - The government aims to improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [1] - Policies will be adjusted based on actual needs, coordinating efforts between the current and next year [1] Economic Goals - The government prioritizes stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1] - The government seeks to achieve a reasonable recovery in price levels [1] - The government aims for overall stability in social employment and optimized economic growth [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Index and Market Conditions - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first rise above the critical point since March [2] - The production and new orders indices for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing remained above the critical point, indicating sustained growth in these sectors [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [4] - The service sector showed stability, with a business activity index of 50.0%, while sectors related to travel and consumption experienced high activity levels [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6% due to adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [4] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities across sectors [6]

Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [4] - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [3][4] - New momentum in the manufacturing sector is evident, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, both above the critical point [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with significant growth in transportation and tourism-related industries, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in market expectations [6] Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index decreased to 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, both indicating continued expansion [7]

Core Insights - The operating conditions of small and micro enterprises have shown improvement, with a reduction in the proportion of loss-making and stagnating entities [2][3] - Market expectations and investment inclination have both declined, indicating a cautious outlook among businesses [4][6] - Cost pressures have eased, but issues such as weak consumer demand and intense competition remain prominent [9][10] - Policy support has weakened, leading to a lower perceived business environment [12][15] - Financing demand has decreased, with a stable financing gap and an increase in reliance on non-bank channels [17][21] - The overall borrowing cost has declined, but the interest rate gap between bank and non-bank channels has widened [23][24] - The online presence of businesses has decreased, although online sales have shown signs of recovery [26][30] Group 1: Operating Conditions - The proportion of loss-making entities decreased to 6.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The stagnation rate was 11.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, but an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The profitability index remained stable at 70.2, while the revenue growth index increased slightly to 51.7 [3][4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Investment - The market expectation index fell to 67.7, down 0.5 from the previous quarter and 2.0 year-on-year [7] - The investment inclination index dropped to 62.4%, marking a decline of 1.6 from the previous quarter and 2.1 year-on-year, the lowest in ten quarters [7] Group 3: Cost Pressures and Competition - The coverage of rising labor costs, high rents, and raw material price increases decreased, indicating reduced cost pressures [10] - Consumer willingness to spend and homogenized competition have become more pronounced, with both issues reaching new highs in coverage [10] Group 4: Policy Support - The coverage of supportive policies such as preferential interest rates and tax reductions has decreased, with a notable drop in the coverage of specialized rewards [13][15] - The perceived business environment index fell to -4.4, indicating a continued cold perception of the business climate [15] Group 5: Financing Trends - The total financing demand dropped to 66.6%, the lowest in ten quarters, while the actual financing gap remained stable at 33.6% [18][19] - The proportion of entities relying solely on bank financing decreased, while those relying on non-bank channels increased [21] Group 6: Borrowing Costs - The overall borrowing cost index decreased to 5.32%, with bank channel rates falling to 4.23% and non-bank channel rates slightly rising to 5.98% [24] - The interest rate gap between bank and non-bank channels expanded to 175 basis points [24] Group 7: Online Presence and Sales - The online presence rate fell to 62.6%, a significant drop from previous quarters, while the proportion of businesses achieving over 30% of sales online increased [26][30] - The concentration of online sales on fewer platforms has risen, and the penetration rate of live streaming has declined [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5][12]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend judgment: Large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5]. - Strategy suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels in the mid - term [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2509 in the coming week was expected to be 20,200 - 20,900. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [8]. - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Consider allocating an appropriate amount of virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - Starting from August, the import of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decrease. Overall, the import volume of domestic bauxite in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, and there is a risk that the monthly balance of bauxite may turn into a deficit. However, considering that some enterprises have stocked up in advance to cope with the rainy season, the supply - demand contradiction of bauxite is not expected to be significant in the short term. The price of bauxite in the third quarter is expected to remain stable. If the shipment volume remains low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the contradiction will gradually become prominent, and the bauxite price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. Alumina Market - As of July 18, the built - in production capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was about 111.75 million tons, the operating capacity was about 92.2 million tons, and the operating rate was about 83.61%, up from about 83.28% last week, showing an overall upward trend since the end of May. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has the potential to refresh the historical peak in the first half of the year. However, there are many factors disturbing the ore supply from Guinea in the second half of the year [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - According to Aladdin, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 44.2 million tons, and the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 is at the lowest level of the year [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is currently about 1,200 yuan/ton, down from about 1,350 yuan/ton last week. Since February 2025, China's aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, overall, exports remain resilient [10]. Demand - Aluminum profiles: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week, mainly due to the increase in orders for automotive profiles from some enterprises, while the operating rate of building profiles remained weak [11]. - Aluminum plates, strips, and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%. In mid - to late July, the probability of an increase in the operating rate driven by improved demand is extremely low. During the transition period between the off - season and peak season in August, if the aluminum price remains relatively stable, downstream customers' stocking actions for the peak season may bring about a wave of demand recovery. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. The overall demand in the aluminum foil market continued to be weak this week. As it is the traditional consumption off - season from July to August, there is no hope for a recovery in terminal demand, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to continue to decline in the short term [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing signs of bottoming out and recovery. In the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the supervision of power grid construction is still urgent. Coupled with the relatively abundant backlog of orders from enterprises, there is still a window period for concentrated deliveries in the second half of the year, which will drive the operating rate of aluminum cables and aluminum consumption after August [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The performance in mid - July was better than the previous weak and stable situation, maintaining a game pattern of "dominated by molten aluminum allocation and demand suppressed by aluminum prices". The exports of primary aluminum alloys and aluminum wheels may enter a deep adjustment period in the second half of the year, and a substantial recovery will depend on clear policies and the alleviation of cost pressures. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.4% this week, mainly due to the shortage of raw materials and the reduction in demand. Constrained by both raw materials and orders, the operating rate of the industry is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [11]. Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 490,000 tons, an increase of about 5% compared with the week before last and a decrease of about 39% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the purchasing and stocking sentiment of downstream customers has improved, and the demand in the aluminum cable sector still has some support during the off - season. The sustainability of the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots still needs to be observed, but the situation of inventory remaining at a historical low level in the same period is difficult to change for the time being. The inventory of aluminum rods is 153,200 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and an increase of about 10% compared with the same period last year. Although the production cuts by aluminum rod manufacturers have reduced the arrival pressure on the supply side, the current replenishment of rigid demand is mainly a short - term boost, and the off - season theme of downstream industries has not changed. Therefore, from a long - term perspective, the inventory of aluminum rods will still maintain an upward trend, and the general trend has not changed significantly. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July, after a continuous slight decline since May 2024, but it is still at a low level since 1990 [11]. Alumina Profit - The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is currently about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 550 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum Profit - The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is currently about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [12]. Market Expectation - Policy expectations continue to ferment, and social inventory is at a low level in recent years; overseas tariff negotiations have been postponed, and export orders have recovered in the short term. However, the marginal demand during the off - season is weakening, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is under pressure; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate decision is disturbing, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index has suppressed metal prices. The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [12]. Personal View - The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. Looking forward to the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12]. Key Concerns - Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum will increase more than expected. - Whether the import window for aluminum ingots will open [12]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products and raw materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite from Guinea remained stable at 73 US dollars/dry ton, while the price of动力煤 (Q5500平仓价) at Jingtang Port increased by 1.73% week - on - week [13]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of various aluminum - related products and raw materials has also changed. For example, the port inventory of bauxite increased slightly this week, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 7.59% week - on - week [14]. Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% this week, driven by the slight increase in the weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables. Overall, the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to be under pressure next week [22][23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern. The adjustment of Shanghai Aluminum at the beginning of last week was mainly concentrated in the near - end, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards high prices during the off - season. However, the attitude of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology towards the high - quality development of the copper and aluminum industries near the weekend may further open the prelude to Supply - side 2.0, and it should be treated as a relatively strong situation [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is currently about - 1,330 yuan/ton, down from - 1,260 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may have a drag on the electrolytic aluminum price [33][34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has been increasing slightly in the past 10 weeks. Since May, the short - selling camp has been reducing positions overall, and the long - buying camp has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be dominated by a relatively strong oscillation recently [35]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week. Since early July, both the long - buying and short - selling camps have slightly reduced positions to cope. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation has continued to decrease slightly. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has increased slightly. From the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [38].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodities in the market are currently trading on the basis of weak reality and strong expectations. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, the demand for steel products is expected to weaken further, and the inventory is likely to rise slightly. For iron ore, although it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short - term due to news, the overall downward long - term cycle and supply - demand factors pose pressure on its price [2][4]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded steel decreased, factory inventory increased, social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory also decreased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, with a decrease of 0.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 239.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.04 million tons (- 0.43%) compared to the previous week. The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 216.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons (- 2.00%) compared to the previous week, and the hot - roll production was 323.14 million tons, a decrease of 5.00 million tons (- 1.52%) [2][3]. - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3138 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day and 2.52% from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3276 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day and 2.66% from the previous week. The threaded - steel main basis was 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous period, and the hot - rolled coil main basis was 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous period [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products was 914.01 million tons, a decrease of 2.12 million tons (- 0.23% - 1.44%) compared to the previous week. The social inventory of threaded steel was 359.49 million tons, a decrease of 5.25 million tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coils was 267.75 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons (0.43%) [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be considered after a full adjustment, and investors with empty positions should not chase the rising price [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with nearly 60% of sample steel mills making a profit. The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills last week was 239.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons compared to the previous week. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions, the hot - metal output is expected to decline further. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and is rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of trade - mine inventory is relatively high, exerting pressure on the futures price [4]. - **Price and Basis**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 766.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.33% from the previous day and 4.86% from the previous week. The basis of Macfarlane powder (Qingdao Port) against the DCE iron - ore main contract was - 33.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory and Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment was 1569.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.97% compared to the previous week; the Brazilian iron - ore shipment was 709.9 million tons, an increase of 22.63% compared to the previous week. The total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1147.9 million tons, a decrease of 18.70% compared to the previous week. The total port inventory was 13765.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.81% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Industry News**: The total global iron - ore shipment was 2987.1 million tons, a decrease of 7.8 million tons compared to the previous period. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2558.8 million tons, an increase of 93.8 million tons compared to the previous period. In early July, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities increased by 0.8% compared to the previous period, ending 11 consecutive periods of decline [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance emphasizes the impact of fiscal policy on current inflation levels and market expectations, highlighting the need for the central bank to understand how various economic agents are affected [1] Group 1 - Fiscal policy is a significant factor influencing inflation and market expectations in Brazil [1] - The central bank's understanding of the effects on different economic agents is crucial for effective policy implementation [1]