1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and improved demand expectations. It is approaching the seasonal off - season, and there is a possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to whether there is support at the previous low. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation in the short term. Although the iron ore inventory is slightly decreasing under high pig iron production, the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the macro - expectation improvement may bring sentiment repair [3]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. The supply side has improved production due to good orders, and the demand side shows a sign of peaking and falling. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is in a weak pattern, with the supply being relatively high and the demand likely to decline. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been significantly alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports [6]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline. Although the supply - demand gap is narrowing under production cuts, the cost and supply pressure still exist [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show minor changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%, with rebar and hot - rolled coils having a better de - stocking situation [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 09 - contract for various iron ore types increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 09 - contract for PB powder increased by 57.2 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 209.0% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 10.5% week - on - week, and the domestic arrival volume decreased by 3.5%. The pig iron production may decline slightly, but it is still expected to remain at a high level [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 45 ports decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0% [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coke 09 - contract decreased by 1.4%, and the 09 - basis increased by 21 yuan/ton. The coking profit increased by 85.7% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, with the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all showing a downward trend [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 09 - contract decreased by 0.8%, and the 09 - basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 4.3% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of raw coal and clean coal increased slightly, and the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3% [5]. Inventory Change - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei sample mines increased by 9.2%, the inventory of coking plants decreased by 3.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in some regions decreased slightly, and the SF - SM main - contract spread increased by 14 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.15%, and the demand remained stable [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [6]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferromanganese main - contract decreased by 1.1%, and the spread between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 66 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia remained the same [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, and the demand decreased slightly by 0.2% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views Methanol - Port inventory inflection point appears, import increment expectation exerts pressure, and the increasing inventory pressure leads to a significant weakening of the basis. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate downward in the short term, with a target range of 2050 - 2100. The 69 reverse spread can be reduced at low levels [1]. Urea - The upstream new order shipment situation is fair, and most urea factories still have pre - received orders to be delivered, but the market sentiment is cautious. The trading logic of the urea market lies in the demand side, mainly the start - up rhythm of domestic agricultural demand. If there is concentrated procurement at the beginning of June, it may support the short - term price. It is recommended to wait and observe in the short - term [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. The alumina industry has a resumption expectation, and the increase in the purchase price of Shandong mainstream factories is the main driving force for the spot price increase. The futures price may rise further, but there are risks. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try a positive spread. For PVC, the short - term rebound is due to macro - stimulation and supply - demand support, but there is an over - supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper resistance of the 09 contract around 5100 [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply - demand is good, but it is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low levels around 6600. - PTA: There is an expectation of supply - demand turning weak, and it is recommended to go long at low levels around 4600 and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities. - MEG: Expected to destock in May - June, but the upward space is restricted. It is recommended to wait and observe unilaterally and go for a positive spread at low levels for the 9 - 1 spread. - Short - fiber: The raw material price is under pressure, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin at the lower limit of the range [12]. Polyolefin - LLDPE: Before early June, maintenance increases, imports are low, demand improves in the short - term, and inventory is expected to decrease. - PP: The maintenance reaches a peak in late May, supply pressure increases later, demand has short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. It is recommended to go short at high levels unilaterally, and the LP spread is expected to expand [32]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical risks, macro and fundamental factors are in a stalemate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and consider buying volatility for options [35]. Styrene - The recent rebound is based on demand expectation correction and low - inventory support, but the price shows weakness. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the EB - BZ spread widening [41]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Most methanol futures and spot prices declined on May 20 compared to May 19, with significant changes in some spreads such as MA2505 - 2509 and MA2501 - 2505 [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 11.14%, while Zhongchun Port inventory decreased by 13.88%. The weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 changed, with the domestic enterprise开工率 slightly decreasing, and the external - procurement MTO device开工率 increasing by 12.67% [1]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures prices showed different changes, and most spot prices declined slightly. Some spreads and basis also changed [3]. - **Position and Production Cost**: The long - position and short - position of the top 20 changed, and the production cost of some raw materials remained stable [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days showed different changes [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with some spreads and basis showing significant fluctuations [7]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: Overseas quotations and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed, with a significant decline in the export profit of PVC [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, and the inventory of PVC and caustic soda decreased [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed, and there were also changes in various spreads such as PX - related, PTA - related, and MEG - related spreads [12]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of various industries in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester, showed different changes [12]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and some spreads and basis also changed [32]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventory showed different trends, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed [32]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Crude oil prices and spreads, including Brent, WTI, and SC, changed on May 21 compared to May 20 [35]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads also changed [35]. Styrene - **Upstream Price**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and pure benzene changed [38]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and monthly spread changed [39]. - **Overseas Quotation and Import Profit**: Overseas quotations of styrene declined, and the import profit data was incomplete [40]. - **开工率 and Profit**: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed, with significant increases in the integrated and non - integrated profits of styrene [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed, with most showing a decreasing trend [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has its own market situation, trend, and influencing factors, and the report gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend intensity ratings for each commodity [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Rubber - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume decreased, the open interest of the 09 contract increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The spot - futures basis and the difference between different months showed certain changes. The prices of some foreign - sourced rubbers decreased [6]. - **Industry News**: In April 2025, automobile production and sales showed a year - on - year increase, and new - energy vehicle exports maintained high growth [8]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: The price of butadiene has corrected, and the market is under pressure to fluctuate. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume, open interest, and trading value of the futures market decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The prices of various types of synthetic rubber in the spot market decreased, and the price of butadiene also declined [9]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in Chinese sample enterprises decreased. The domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the price increase space of butadiene rubber was limited [9][12]. Asphalt - **Market Trend**: It is in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume of futures increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The prices of spot asphalt in different regions changed, and the refinery's operating rate and inventory rate decreased [13]. - **Market News**: The weekly output of domestic asphalt decreased, and the inventory of sample factories and social warehouses decreased [26]. LLDPE - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations, with pressure in the later period. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][27]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed slightly. The spot prices in different regions decreased [27]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Although the export of plastic products provides short - term support, the supply pressure of polyethylene is large, with high production and high inventory. The demand in the later period is weak, and the trend is under pressure [28]. PP - **Market Trend**: The price decreased slightly, and the trading volume was average. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][31]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed slightly. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [31]. - **Spot News**: The domestic PP market weakened, the futures price declined, and the market trading atmosphere was flat [32]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: The rebound is difficult to sustain. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][34]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 09 contract and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong are provided, along with the basis [34]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The downstream demand for caustic soda lacks continuous driving force, the supply is high, and there is new production capacity in the future. It is in the demand off - season, and the supply needs to be reduced to balance supply and demand [36]. Pulp - **Market Trend**: It is in a fluctuating state. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][39]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume and open interest of futures decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The domestic and international prices of different types of pulp changed [40]. - **Industry News**: The pulp market was weak, the spot price decreased slightly, and the port inventory was high. The price of household paper was weak, and the demand was in the off - season [41][43]. Glass - **Market Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][44]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price increased, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly [44]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market was weak, the price was adjusted downward, and the market was waiting and watching [44]. Methanol - **Market Trend**: It is under pressure to fluctuate. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][47]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price, trading volume, and trading value decreased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions decreased [48]. - **Spot News**: The methanol spot price index decreased, the prices in many regions decreased, the enterprise inventory increased, and the downstream demand was limited. The port inventory decreased last week, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [50]. Urea - **Market Trend**: It is in a high - level fluctuating state. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][52]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price increased slightly, the trading volume and trading value decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices of factories and traders were stable or decreased slightly [53]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of urea enterprises decreased. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with a balance between long and short positions, with support below and limited upward space due to policy control [54][55]. Styrene - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][56]. - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different contracts of styrene decreased, and the profit margins of non - integrated and integrated operations decreased. The difference between different months changed [56]. - **Spot News**: The price of pure benzene is still weak, the supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient. The inventory of styrene is low, and the downstream production and sales showed short - term improvement [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market has little change. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][58]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable [60]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable, the supply decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was average, with a short - term stable trend expected [60]. LPG - **Market Trend**: The short - term support is strengthening, and attention should be paid to the rebound of the domestic market. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][62]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The differences between different prices changed, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased [62]. - **Market News**: The expected prices of Saudi CP in June and July decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans in the market [69][70]. PVC - **Market Trend**: There is still pressure in the later period. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][72]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price, spot price, basis, and the difference between the 9 - 1 months are provided [72]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The current PVC production and inventory are high, the production reduction is difficult, the export competition pressure is high, and the domestic demand is weak [72][73]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: The fuel oil had a small increase during the day session and entered an adjustment phase. The low - sulfur fuel oil weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas market rebounded slightly. The trend intensity of both is rated as neutral (0) [2][76]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipts of different contracts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed. The spot prices in different regions also changed [76]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: It is in a high - level fluctuating state. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits on the 6 - 8 backwardation spread and hold the 10 - 12 backwardation spread. [2][78]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and trading volume - to - open - interest ratios of different contracts changed. The freight rate indexes of European and US - West routes showed different trends [78].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：周末到货增加 关注铝库存走势 投资咨询业务资格： 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，矿端扰动再起，据媒体报道，几内亚政府宣布已经收回 了 51 份矿业许可。一些分析师认为，此举是全球第二大铝土矿生产国对大 型运营商发出的警告。据 SMM 氧化铝理论利润数据显示，自 3 月 19 日以来， 氧化铝企业理论利润便开始出现亏损态势，此后亏损情况一直持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. It is about to face the seasonal off - season and the possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, the daily average iron ore production has peaked and declined, while the port clearance volume has slightly increased. It is expected that the iron ore production will remain at a high level in the short term. The iron ore is slightly de - stocked under high iron ore production, and the steel mill inventory remains low. The terminal demand of finished products determines the sustainability of high - level iron ore production. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate in the short term [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - For silicon iron, the daily production has declined, the supply pressure has been gradually relieved, and the factory inventory has gradually decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. For silicon manganese, the production is accelerating to decline, the supply and demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend last week. The supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short term. It is recommended to short the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal at high prices and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke/coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit of most steel products increased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron ore production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar production increased by 3.0 tons (1.3%), and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.4 tons (- 2.6%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons (- 3.1%), the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons (- 5.2%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons (- 4.8%) [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average construction material trading volume decreased by 0.3 tons (- 3.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons (8.1%), the apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons (21.7%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.0 tons (6.5%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 8.8 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0%). The basis of some varieties increased significantly [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 95.1 tons (- 3.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons (- 0.7%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons (- 0.4%), and the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 8.7 tons (2.8%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 174.8 tons (- 1.2%), and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 2.2 tons (0.0%) [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 26.0 yuan/ton (0.5%), and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton (0.2%) [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of some regions remained stable, and the production profit of some regions increased or remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%), and the production of silicon manganese decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%). The start - up rates of both decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese remained relatively stable [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.5 tons (13.9%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal decreased. For example, the price of first - class wet - quenched coke in Shanxi decreased by 50 yuan/ton (- 3.84%), and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 1.9%) [6]. - **Supply**: The coke production increased slightly, and the coking coal production remained at a relatively high level. The domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level [6]. - **Demand**: The iron ore production showed signs of peaking and declining, and the downstream users' replenishment was mainly on - demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory in coking plants continued to decline, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory was low. The coking coal inventory in mines continued to accumulate, and the downstream inventory was at a low level [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariffs, global economic recession risks, and policy adjustments. Different sectors show various trends and investment opportunities. For example, the report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, believes in the long - term bullish trend of precious metals, and has different views on other commodities based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 14, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. The current macro data is stable, but tariffs may lead to a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The external environment is favorable for treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. It is recommended to be cautious as the Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the increasing risk of global economic recession due to tariffs, may lead to passive monetary policy easing in various countries, which is expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The progress of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade statement and the lower - than - expected CPI growth in the US have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that copper prices will rise, and it is recommended to go long on the Shanghai copper main contract [51]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The复产 of mines in Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar increases the supply expectation, while the current supply is tight. It is expected that tin prices will face upward pressure and show a bearish - oscillating trend [53]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The tightening of the ore supply policy in Indonesia and the Philippines provides cost support, but the downstream is in a state of over - supply. It is necessary to pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [54]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. OPEC+ will increase production from May to June, and the market is worried about oversupply. After the short - term rise, crude oil may face a correction. It is recommended to take a short position on the crude oil main contract [21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the signing of tariff agreements is beneficial for the recovery of fuel oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the fuel oil main contract [24][25]. Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. Supply pressure persists, but the demand side is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost side has rebounded significantly. It is expected to be short - term bullish [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand side may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend [29]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [31]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The adjustment of domestic export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish - oscillating trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [34]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread is continuously repairing, and the supply and demand situation is improving. With the upward repair of crude oil prices and positive macro - sentiment, PX is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to participate on dips [36]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The supply side has decreased, the demand side has increased, and the cost side is supported. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to repair upward. It is recommended to operate in the low - range [37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increase is not obvious, the port inventory is decreasing, and the demand side is improving. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will continue to rise. It is recommended to participate on dips [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to go long on dips [41]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The raw material price is rising, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and rebound [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda ash main contract rose. The raw material prices are falling, the production is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The market is in a loose pattern, but short - term adjustments may occur due to device maintenance. Short - position holders at low levels should adjust their positions [44]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The production line is at a low level, and the market is weak. There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short - term, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina downstream is limited, but some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, which may provide some driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [46]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The Sino - US tariff breakthrough has given some confidence to the pulp market, but the supply - demand situation is still loose. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to international pulp mill production cuts and domestic consumption stimulus policies [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply side is difficult to further reduce production, the demand side is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to show a bearish trend [50]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options [58]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil rose. The inventory in Malaysia has increased, and Indonesia has raised the export tax. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures showed mixed performance. The 45Z bio - fuel tax credit extension is negative for rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on rapeseed meal after a correction [62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose slightly. The US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report is negative, but the Sino - US negotiation is progressing smoothly, which is beneficial for cotton. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but there may be a short - term support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rose slightly. The production in Brazil and India is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level with low imports. It is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to operate within the range [68]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fell slightly. There is a production reduction in some apple - producing areas, and the current inventory is at a low level. It is expected that the spot price will be strong in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after a correction [71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, the live pig futures main contract rose. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is expected that the pig price will first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg futures main contract fell slightly. The egg supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide some support. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log futures main contract rose. The import volume of logs and sawn timber has decreased, and the spot price shows regional differentiation. The market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price has a weak support for the futures [82].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.8万吨，环比有所减少1.44%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.7万吨，环比增长19.64%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库存为25.7万 吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为105000吨，处于低位，有机 硅生产利润为-301元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为60.11%，环比持平，低于历史同期平 均水平；铝合金锭库存为1.47万吨，处于低位，进口亏损为702元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为516.79元/吨，再生铝开工率为55%，环比增加4.76%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3555元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月12日，华东不通氧现货价9000元/吨，06合约基差为680元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.6万吨，环比减少1.16%,样本企业库存为264900吨，环比增加1.44%,主要港口库 存为13.3万吨，环比减少2.20%。 偏空。 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, despite increased cost support, weak demand and high inventory levels suggest a bearish outlook. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, although there are signs of production increase and cost stability, overall demand is currently declining but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is predicted to oscillate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 70,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 67,000 tons, a 20.23% decrease from the previous week, remaining persistently weak [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,139 yuan/ton, with increased cost support during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On April 29th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 810 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 602,000 tons, a 1.63% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 251,900 tons, a 1.46% decrease; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Forecast: Supply production is decreasing, demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is rising. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The predicted production for April is 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.38 GW, a 1.40% decrease; inventory was 195,300 tons, a 7.18% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, while component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,940 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 3,560 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On April 29th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 3,180 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [11]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 259,000 tons, a 3.18% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical data [11]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [11]. - Forecast: Supply production continues to increase, while demand for silicon wafers may decrease in the medium - term after a short - term increase. Battery cell and component production are on the rise. Overall demand is currently weak but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market overview: It includes price changes of different contracts, inventory data, production, and basis information [17]. - Polysilicon market overview: Covers price changes of different contracts, production, inventory, and cost data [19]. - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: Analyzes the historical trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [21]. - Industrial silicon inventory: Displays historical inventory data of different regions and warehouses [24]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: Shows the historical production and capacity utilization of different regions [25]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: Presents the historical cost and profit trends of different regions [31]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets: Analyze the supply - demand balance situation of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [33][36]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: Includes price, production, inventory, and import - export data of organic silicon products [39]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: Covers price, supply, inventory, and production data of aluminum alloy products, as well as related demand data from the automotive and wheel hub industries [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: Analyzes the fundamental trends, supply - demand balance, and cost - profit data of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On April 2, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 43,680 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.41%, and the position increasing by 1,459 lots to 28,096 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 1,680 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2505 closing at 9,760 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.2%, and the position decreasing by 17,564 lots to 292,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 553 dropped to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. There were news of joint production cuts in the industry. Before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, some short positions in industrial silicon began to exit, and the short-term futures market showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The inventory destocking in the component segment was slow, suppressing the upward transmission elasticity of demand, and the high inventory restricted the rebound space. Under the structural mismatch pressure between short-term demand recovery and medium-term supply increase, the spread between near and far months of polysilicon still had room to widen. After the festival, continue to pay attention to the delivery progress and downstream production scheduling rhythm. During the festival, it is recommended to control positions and hold light positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon was volatile and slightly stronger on April 2, while industrial silicon was volatile and slightly weaker. There were joint production cut news in the industry, and short-term industrial silicon futures showed signs of stabilizing. The slow inventory destocking in the component segment restricted demand transmission, and the polysilicon spread had room to widen. Attention should be paid to delivery and production scheduling after the festival, and positions should be controlled during the festival [2] Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,785 yuan/ton. Most spot prices remained stable, with the lowest deliverable product 553 at 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt was 69,710 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,345 tons to 348,955 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to 43,680 yuan/ton. The N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 1,680 yuan/ton [4] - **Organosilicon**: The DMC price in the East China market was 14,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged [4] Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organosilicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][26]