Group 1: Consumption Trends - Consumption has led the market since April and year-to-date, with personal care products, animal health, feed, snacks, and cosmetics showing the highest gains[1] - Recommended consumption sectors include apparel, automobiles (including two-wheeled electric vehicles), retail, food, beauty care, aquaculture, feed, and snacks since the Spring Strategy Outlook on February 12[1] Group 2: Fiscal Impact on Consumption - Retail sales growth is highly elastic to fiscal spending cycles, with elasticity increasing during fiscal expansion periods[2] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is around 4%, up from approximately 3% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in central government spending[21] - Local government debt pressures have historically suppressed consumption, but debt relief efforts are expected to drive internal recovery in consumption, particularly in high-debt provinces[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors, technology growth, cost improvement drivers, and structural opportunities abroad[32] - Recommended sectors include domestic consumption (apparel, automobiles, retail, food, beauty care), technology (AI, robotics, semiconductors), and cost-driven sectors (aquaculture, energy metals)[32]

ING全球市场研究主管Chris Turner指出： 对美国资产市场质量的持续担忧以及去美元化威胁继续对美元构成压力。 当日稍早，美国财政部长贝森特试图淡化美元走弱的担忧，声称"很大程度上是其他国家或其他货币在走强，而不是美元在走弱"。贝森特表示，欧洲 的"财政扩张"提振了欧元，而日本央行的加息则支撑了日元。但市场显然不买账： 美元本周下跌2%，创下自4月关税抛售以来最大单周跌幅，投资者对美国财政状况的担忧情绪急剧升温。 周五，美元对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子货币下跌0.9%，本周累计跌幅达到2%。最令市场担忧的是美元对高利率环境的异常反应。通常情况下，更 高的收益率会增加美元资产的吸引力，但当前美元、美国政府债券和股票同时下跌的现象，被视为投资者恐慌抛售美元资产的明确信号。 财政扩张与货币竞争：美元跌势的外部推手 报道表示，投资者的恐慌情绪并非毫无根据。 特朗普的减税法案引发的财政赤字担忧已经推动长期美债遭遇抛售，30年期国债收益率本周上涨0.13个百分点，突破5%关口。BBH分析师警告： 投资者对美国财政负担不断加重的担忧正在慢慢积聚。 周五彭博美元指数的跌幅明显超过正常水平，价格跌破4月低点，创年内新低 ...

政策层面出现积极信号。德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨组建的独立经济顾问小组周二提交报告称，政府 正在推进的基础设施升级与国防重组计划有望为2026年经济注入活力。 该小组负责人莫妮卡·施尼策尔在接受采访时强调："财政扩张已成为德国经济破局的关键突破口，当前 最紧迫的是确保资金快速精准投放。"她同时警示，行政审批流程改革与营商环境优化需与财政刺激形 成政策合力。 周四早间公布的5月PMI初值显示，德国私营部门综合产出指数意外萎缩，服务业活动创两年半以来最 差表现，仅有制造业呈现边际改善。 制约经济复苏的深层矛盾持续显现：全球需求疲软与贸易政策波动形成双重挤压，人口老龄化与行政审 批效率低下等结构性问题进一步加剧增长瓶颈。 （原标题：德国企业信心现回暖迹象 结构性矛盾仍制约经济复苏） 智通财经APP获悉，德国经济研究机构Ifo最新数据显示，5月企业预期指数较上月回升1.5个点至88.9， 超出彭博调查预测的88中值，但同期衡量经济现状的指标出现小幅回落。Ifo研究所主席克莱门斯·菲斯 特在周四发布的声明中指出："近期困扰企业的贸易政策不确定性有所缓解，德国经济正逐步积累复苏 动能。" 作为欧元区最大经济体，德国当前仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of U.S. Treasury investors has shifted from optimism regarding trade relations to concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory, particularly following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government credit rating, which is expected to lead to an increase in Treasury yields [1][3]. Group 1: Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - The Wells Fargo strategist team predicts that the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields will rise by 5 to 10 basis points due to the impact of Moody's downgrade [1]. - The 30-year Treasury yield has already reached 5%, marking the highest level since November 2023 [2]. - The bond market is closely monitoring developments in Congress regarding the proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill," which could significantly increase the already high debt level of $36 trillion [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill" could add trillions to the national debt, raising concerns among bond market participants about fiscal responsibility [3]. - Analysts suggest that the downgrade of U.S. debt ratings is not surprising given the ongoing fiscal expansion, which may lead large investors to shift away from U.S. Treasuries to other safe-haven assets [3]. - The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the proposed legislation could increase U.S. debt by approximately $3.3 trillion by 2034, or up to $5.2 trillion if temporary measures are extended [3]. Group 3: Urgency of Debt Ceiling Resolution - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is urging Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling before mid-July, as the government may reach a critical "X date" by August when it can no longer meet its obligations [5]. - Concerns about the debt ceiling are already being reflected in the yields of Treasury securities maturing in August, which are higher than those of securities maturing at other nearby dates [5]. - There is a consensus among Republicans to extend the tax cuts from 2017, but disagreements remain on how to offset the loss in tax revenue through spending cuts, which are limited due to mandatory spending commitments [5].

未来12-18个月，10年期美国国债收益率可能触及6% 金十数据5月8日讯，T. Rowe Price首席信息官Arif Husain在一份报告中说，在美国国会夏季休会前通过 大规模财政方案的可能性正在增加。由于特朗普政府尚未完全解决其减税议程，预计财政扩张将成为市 场的下一个压倒一切的焦点。财政扩张可能会支持经济增长，但最重要的是，它可能会给美国国债市场 带来更大的压力。，通胀上升和全球财政进一步扩张对美国国债不利，并预计10年期国债收益率将在未 来12至18个月内达到6%。 ...

文 ｜ 韦昕澄 崔嵘 李翀 贾天楚 "美国优先"的卷土重来正促使欧盟迈向"战略觉醒"的时代，白宫加征关税的措施则让欧盟经济暌违已久的复苏前景日益扑朔迷离。我们预计美国 加征关税对欧盟经济的负面冲击可能会比财政扩张的正面提振更早显现，直至今年四季度起后者的积极影响会逐渐抵消并超越关税的消极影响。 当"重新武装"遇到"关税大棒"，欧盟财政扩张的前景较明确、欧美之间的关税博弈过程则可能会较坎坷，投资者在此期间审慎的态度与灵活的策 略都很重要，既需留意博弈进展反复对风险资产的掣肘，也可考虑在避险情绪浓厚时适度逢低布局、等待下一个"Tr ump Pu t "的惊喜。 ▍ "美国优先"的卷土重来正促使欧盟迈向"战略觉醒"的时代。 特朗普政府的单边主义正加重欧洲各国的焦虑心态，欧盟内部增加国防开支的主张逐渐成为共识。德国约一万亿欧元"不惜一切代价"的财政扩 张方案已完成立法流程，待新政府组阁后即可商议细节。欧盟约八千亿欧元的"重新武装欧洲"提议也正如火如荼推进，各成员国的国家例外条 款（NEC）激活申请计划于7月获批。然而，白宫近来的加征关税措施显著冲淡了欧洲财政增支计划的光彩，目前美国对欧盟的钢铝关税、汽 车关税和1 0 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 核心结论 关税不确定性使财政扩张的必要性增加，我们提示二季度或有几个边际变化： 1 、 二季度财政或加速发行既定债务 ，增量债务或随时接续（经验规律： 增量债务政策 多在 6 月底 ~10 月底 ）； 2 、财政扩张方向或 由一季度偏消费到二季度边际倾斜投资 ； 3 、 基于既定政策测算， 二季度广义财政支出增速或在 -0.6%~10.4% 附近 （ 今年一季度为 4.3% ， 2019~2024 年二季度均值为 1.8% ；均为不考虑中央金融机构注资特别国债、用于化债的特殊新增专项债 的同口径比较）， 若新增专项债极限提速 （如首个出台专项债"自审自发"方案的省份湖南要求"原则上 6 月底前完成全年专项债券发行工作"； 2018 年 8 月中美贸易争端升级后，财政部要求在两个月内发完全年 额度） 或增量债务接续，增速或更高。 一、财政扩张的规律：二季度或加速发行既定债务，增量债务或随时接续 债务是支持财政扩张的重要力量，每年可分为既定债务和增量债务。既定债务规模由预算确定 ...

海外经济："欧强美弱"遭遇挑战 海外经济"欧强美弱"叙事遭遇阶段性挑战。 关税对美国经济的冲击仍然停留在居民部门，企业部门及就业市场继续表现出较强韧性。 截至4月24日，亚特 兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测Q1消费增速为1.4%，投资增速为7.1%，表现为消费小幅转冷，投资逆势扩张。单 周首次申领失业金人数为22.2万，小幅强于季节性。 随着关税落地，美国经济仍可能进一步转冷。然而，基于当前形势判断，美国经济更可能陷入相对温和的技术 性衰退，不排除避免衰退的可能性。 一是相对强劲的企业部门将承接大部分关税冲击。大通胀期间美国企业部门积累大量利润，企业利润扩张逾八 成，而工人薪资仅增长约三成。根据相关研究，进口商将承担超80%关税成本，消费者仅承担不到20%。 二是就业市场受到供给侧支撑。随着非法移民逐步退出就业市场，美国"劳工荒"形势依然严峻。尽管经济转冷 可能带来雇佣需求的收缩，但移民劳工的退出将令供给同步收缩，最终失业率可能保持稳定。 三是特朗普团队已在面临"一鼓作气，再而衰，三而竭"的窘境。马斯克政府效率部的工作近乎停滞，与美联储 的"降息之争"没有得到足够支持，与全球各国的贸易谈判普遍陷入僵局，对俄乌冲 ...

德国财政政策迎重大转折。 当地时间3月22日，德国总统施泰因迈尔正式签署《基本法》修正案，为德国政府通过新增债务融资的庞大财政方案扫清了最后一道障碍。这项巨额财政计划 将为国防、基础设施和气候投资提供数千亿欧元资金。分析认为，今年屡创新高的德国股市，有望延续升势；而欧洲资产也有望继续受到投资者追捧。 STOXX50指数、德国DAX指数和法国CAC40指数走势（2025年） | 14 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 10 31 | 1 | 1 | 德国财政迎来重大转折 在德国联邦议院和联邦参议院先后于3月18日和3月21日批准后，施泰因迈尔于法案通过的第二天迅速完成了签署程序。根据总统府当天发布的声明，该法案 现在只需在《联邦法律公报》上公布，即可正式生效，进入执行阶段。 这一决定标志着德国财政政策迎来重大转折。 中信建投的报告认为，本轮财政将显著拉动德国GDP。在激进情形下，假设德国基础设施投资乘数1.5，国防支出投资乘数为0.6，州财政乘数为0.69。预计 2026年财政扩张对德国GDP拉动1.81%，德国进口增长5.14%。而在保守情形下，即财政支出乘数效应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in Germany's fiscal policy, marked by a call from the incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz for expansive economic and defense spending, which has led to unprecedented volatility in the German bond market and broader European financial markets [1][2][23]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On March 5, 2025, Germany's bond market experienced its largest upheaval in 35 years, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 30 basis points, the highest single-day increase since March 1990 [4][6]. - The DAX index surged over 3%, achieving a year-to-date increase of 15% [5]. - Following the announcement, bond yields in France, Italy, and Spain rose by more than 25 basis points, indicating a ripple effect across Europe [7]. Group 2: Implications for European Economy - Analysts view Germany's fiscal policy shift as a potential "game changer" for European defense and economic policy, with implications for other Eurozone countries [2][9]. - The euro's exchange rate strengthened significantly, with market sentiment reaching a five-year high regarding the euro's performance against the dollar [7][8]. - The market is reassessing the European Central Bank's monetary policy, reducing expectations for further interest rate cuts from 84 basis points to 67 basis points by year-end [8]. Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - The fiscal expansion plan is seen as a response to long-standing calls for loosening Germany's strict fiscal discipline, which has historically constrained economic growth [6][11]. - If domestic investment stimulates GDP by 1% annually, combined with 1%-1.5% foreign defense spending, Germany's economic growth could approach 1.5%-2% by 2027 [13]. - However, the short-term economic outlook remains uncertain, with challenges such as labor market decline and geopolitical uncertainties still looming [11][12]. Group 4: Risks and Concerns - High debt levels in Europe raise concerns about the sustainability of rising bond yields, which could lead to increased financing costs for already indebted countries [2][16]. - The disparity between German bond yields and swap rates has reached a record high, indicating market expectations of increased bond issuance by the German government [17][18]. - Potential scenarios include some countries struggling with high financing costs, Germany possibly needing to bail out other nations, or a return to market stability [19][20][21].