Core Insights - The recent volatility in precious metals, platinum group metals, and non-ferrous metals is driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. fiscal expansion and AI-related capital expenditures, which are expected to support price increases in these sectors [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. fiscal expansion plays a crucial role in the current economic cycle, acting as a counter-cyclical support for growth [3] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are projected to invest hundreds of billions to over a trillion dollars in AI-related capital expenditures, creating new demand for non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum [3] - The power density requirements of AI data centers significantly exceed those of traditional facilities, leading to increased reliance on copper and aluminum for power distribution and cooling systems [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Domestic economic recovery is anticipated to continue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) expected to turn positive after the third quarter of 2026 [3] - The significant increase in export value added indicates resilience in industrial upgrades within the country [3] - The monetary credit cycle has reached an inflection point, with the M1-M2 indicator leading the PPI by approximately six months, suggesting a potential moderate recovery in prices [3] Group 3: Key Divergences - The paradox of capacity clearance is evident in industries like electrolytic aluminum and lithium salt processing, where leading companies are expanding despite losses, delaying industry clearance [4] - The impact of massive capital expenditures on future investment potential and the verification of productivity gains from AI remain uncertain [4] - The U.S. has classified copper and silver as critical minerals, leading to increased trade barriers and supply tightness [4] - Emerging Asian economies may slow down their coal phase-out processes due to energy security and economic considerations, affecting demand for related commodities [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The historical combination of fiscal expansion and de-globalization, similar to the environment starting in the 1970s, suggests a potential for a significant bull market in commodities [4] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, driven by AI and fiscal connections, while remaining cautious of monetary policy shifts and geopolitical events that could lead to market volatility [4]

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The world economy in 2026 is characterized by a "dual performance" driven by AI and fiscal expansion, with AI-related investments contributing nearly 1% to the US GDP [3][19] - Global trade growth is expected to slow significantly to 0.5% in 2026, down from a predicted 2.4% in 2025, due to high tariffs and declining overall demand [3][19] - Major central banks are entering a rate-cutting cycle, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates 3-4 times in 2026, while the European Central Bank maintains its rate at 2.0% [3][19] Group 2: China's Economic Narrative - 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a target of maintaining an average annual GDP growth rate of around 4.4% to double per capita GDP by 2035 [4][20] - The "involution" issue stems from a bottleneck in growth models and a singular evaluation standard, leading to overcapacity and competition among local governments [5][21] - The central government's focus on national resource allocation efficiency contrasts with local governments' emphasis on local value, tax revenue, and employment, complicating the "anti-involution" process [5][21] Group 3: Policy Coordination - The macroeconomic policy approach emphasizes fiscal expansion while monetary policy plays a supportive role, with expectations of rapid government bond issuance in early 2026 [6][22] - There is potential for increasing the narrow deficit ratio, special government bonds, and local government special bonds to address fiscal pressures [6][22] - The central bank is expected to ensure adequate liquidity, potentially through interest rate cuts and increased bond purchases [6][22] Group 4: Interest Rate Bonds - The interest rate bond market in 2026 is anticipated to exhibit a "strong oscillation" pattern, with ten-year government bond yields expected to fluctuate within a defined range [7][23] - The lower boundary of this range is supported by a gradual decline in economic growth and moderate inflation, necessitating a conducive environment for fiscal and monetary policies [7][23] - The market structure is evolving, with insurance funds increasingly purchasing long-term government bonds, while brokerages and funds are net sellers [7][23] Group 5: Credit Bonds - The credit bond market is expected to enter a "high spread normalization" phase in 2026, with stable supply-demand dynamics leading to high volatility in credit spreads [9][25] - The supply structure is changing, with a significant increase in industrial bonds, particularly in the technology sector, contributing to a net supply increase of approximately 400 billion yuan [9][25] - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with wealth management products reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, providing stable funding for credit bonds [9][25] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market may experience a unique situation of "tight supply and expanding demand" in 2026, with over 100 convertible bonds delisted in 2025 [11][27] - The supply structure is highly concentrated in five industries, which may lead to increased dependence on these sectors for future convertible bond performance [11][27] - Public funds are becoming the main holders of convertible bonds, with their share rising from approximately 34% to 42% [11][27]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged to 2.125%, the highest level since February 1999, raising concerns about its impact on global financial markets [1]. Group 1: Factors Driving Yield Increase - The Japanese government's large-scale fiscal expansion policy is a primary driver of rising bond yields, as investor distrust in fiscal sustainability increases the risk premium required for holding long-term Japanese government bonds [3]. - Expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are also contributing to upward pressure on bond yields [3]. Group 2: Economic and Social Impacts - The continuous rise in bond yields is causing multi-layered impacts on Japan's economy and livelihoods, with risks transitioning from financial markets to the real economy [3]. - Increased financing costs due to rising interest rates will significantly inflate interest payments, squeezing fiscal resources and limiting spending on social welfare such as education and healthcare, thereby weakening the government's ability to counter-cyclical economic adjustments [5]. Group 3: Global Financial Market Implications - There are concerns that the sustained increase in Japanese bond yields will disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting emerging markets facing capital outflows [5]. - The rise in Japanese bond yields, combined with anticipated interest rate hikes, has led to a significant increase in the cost of borrowing in yen, triggering large-scale unwinding of carry trades and concentrated sell-offs of overseas assets, impacting global financial markets [7]. - As a major creditor nation, fluctuations in Japan's bond market can directly transmit through international investor networks to core markets like U.S. and German bonds, potentially raising global interest rates and tightening market liquidity [7].

Group 1 - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, has approved a budget totaling 122.3 trillion yen (approximately 780 billion USD), with defense spending set to reach a record level next year [4] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 2.12%, marking the highest level since 1999, amid concerns over fiscal expansion and inflationary pressures [1] - Market analysts indicate that the government's fiscal policy is a key factor pushing up long-term yields, with expectations of "re-inflation" policies contributing to ongoing upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields [5] Group 2 - The volatility in the Japanese bond market is influenced by global macroeconomic conditions, particularly following a sell-off in U.S. long-term bonds, which has steepened the yield curve [6] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long bonds in the upcoming fiscal year starting in April, which may help balance supply and demand in the bond market [5] - Despite high current yield levels, market caution prevails ahead of the upcoming 10-year Japanese government bond auction, as concerns about the Bank of Japan lagging behind inflation persist [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average index closed above 50,000 points for the first time, driven by global expectations for generative AI and stable inflation in Japan, with a 26% increase in 2025, outperforming the US Dow Jones for three consecutive years [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei average index closed at 50,339 points on December 30, down 0.4% from the previous day, but still marked the highest year-end point for two consecutive years [4]. - Global stock market capitalization reached $146 trillion, increasing by $25 trillion (20%) over the year, with almost all major countries experiencing stock index gains [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Major countries' monetary easing has led to abundant investment funds, with the US Federal Reserve expected to cut rates three times and the European Central Bank four times by 2025 [6]. - The rise of AI-related stocks in the US has mirrored global trends, with significant investments in data center equipment by major tech companies like Microsoft [6]. Group 3: Japanese Market Dynamics - Japanese AI-related stocks, such as Advantest, SoftBank Group, and Tokyo Electron, are expected to benefit from increased demand, significantly boosting the Nikkei index [7]. - The Japanese stock market's performance has been notably strong, with a 14% increase in 2025, marking the first time since the 1989 bubble that it has outperformed the US Dow Jones for three consecutive years [7][8]. Group 4: Inflation and Corporate Earnings - Japan's inflation has stabilized, with consumer price increases exceeding the government's 2% target since April 2022, leading to expectations of wage increases of over 5% in 2026 [7][8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for TOPIX constituents have reached 2.2 times the levels seen at the end of 2020, slightly surpassing the S&P 500's growth [8]. Group 5: Foreign Investment and Policy Implications - Foreign investors purchased over 5 trillion yen in Japanese stocks this year, the largest since the first year of Abenomics in 2013 [8]. - The new government's aggressive economic policies may pose risks to stock price increases, as fiscal expansion under inflation could lead to concerns about economic growth and fiscal health [8].

1. Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the medium to long term, maintain a bullish view on the economy, and suggest buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as stock index long - position substitution offers certain outperformance [3] - In the medium to long term, with a rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 30th, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index flat at 3965.12 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.49% at 13604.07 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.63% at 3242.9 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.01% at 1359.87 points. Market trading volume was 21,615 billion yuan, an increase of 38 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, the top gainers were petroleum and petrochemicals (+2.63%), automobiles (+1.35%), and non - ferrous metals (+1.31%); the top losers were commerce and retail (-1.56%), real estate (-1.22%), and public utilities (-1.14%) [2] - In terms of market strength, IC > IF > IH > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,837/148/3,473 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 94, - 144, - 14, and 253 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +117, +128, - 101, and - 144 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 77.3, 41.54, 21.28, and 3.15 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 7.71%, - 4.22%, - 3.47%, and - 0.79% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 54%, 57%, 31%, and 41% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 30th, interest - rate bonds showed mixed performance. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T fell 0.02%, and TL rose 0.17% [3] - For the current active 2603 contract: the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250017.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.017, and an IRR of 1.61%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.031, and an IRR of 1.83%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.95 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.056, and an IRR of 1.43%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.065, and an IRR of 1.94% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 312.5 billion yuan and withdrew 59.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity levels of manufacturing, real estate, imports and exports, and social activities are currently lower than in previous periods, while the infrastructure prosperity level is similar to that of previous periods [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the economic situations of the United States and China in 2026, including their economic indicators, policies, and investment opportunities. It expects the US economy to show a slowdown but not a stall, with the Fed likely to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times. In China, the economy is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end of 2026, with policies remaining moderately loose. The report is bullish on equity - related assets in 2026, especially favoring technology - growth stocks and the profit - repair direction of "anti - involution" enterprises [46][102][113]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs United States 1.1. Review of 2025 Economic Indicators and Asset Prices - In 2025, the US economy and assets showed a divergence, with weakening economic data but strong asset performance. This was due to loose policies and the rise of AI, and this background will continue into 2026 [10]. 2.1. Entering the Third Year of the Interest - Rate Cut Cycle - In 2025, there were 3 interest - rate cuts totaling 75bp, and the federal funds rate dropped to the range of [3.50% - 3.75%]. In 2026, attention should be paid to the Fed's independence after the chairman's replacement and the Fed's policy expectations in the third year [12]. 2.2. Loose Policies: Intensified Divergence within the Fed - There are internal differences between local and council members and between hawks and doves in the Fed, as well as external differences between the White House's pressure and the Fed's independence. The divergence was intensified in the December vote pattern, as shown by the dot plot [18]. 2.3. Behind the Divergence: The Failure of Monetary Policy - The dual goals point to interest - rate cuts to improve employment. However, AI has squeezed employment, and more interest - rate cuts may further exacerbate this situation. It is estimated that the Fed will cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in 2026, and the federal funds rate is expected to move towards the neutral rate of 3% [21]. 2.4. More Certain and Effective Fiscal Expansion - The "A Great Beautiful Act" includes tax policies (tax cuts of about 3.9 trillion), expenditure cuts (about 1.9 trillion), increased spending (about 0.35 trillion), and raising the debt ceiling from 36.1 trillion to 41.1 trillion dollars [23]. 3.1. Differentiated Investment in the US Economy, with Concentrated AI Investment - The growth rate of US private investment has shown obvious differentiation. Traditional investment demands such as housing and construction have declined, while intellectual property products and equipment have strengthened. The concentrated investment in the AI direction is the main reason [26]. 3.2. The Growth Rate of AI - Related Investment Is Much Higher Than Others - In equipment investment, information - processing equipment, and in intellectual property investment, software investment have maintained high growth rates. The proportion of relevant investment has reached over 25% [32]. 3.3. Continued Decline in US Employment - Non - farm employment and the unemployment rate have continued to weaken. AI has reduced the demand for labor while increasing productivity, leading to a continuous decline in employment [34]. 3.4. Multi - angle Observation of US Employment, Lay - offs, and Structure - Declining demand, accelerated lay - offs, and long - term unemployment together indicate increasing downward pressure on US employment [36]. 3.5. Impact of Weakening Employment - A decline in employment leads to a decrease in income, which affects household spending. Prices of optional durable goods such as cars and rent may be affected, and core inflation may decline, showing the negative correlation between unemployment and inflation [41]. 3.6. The K - shaped Economic Structure in the US - Low - income families are more likely to be affected [43]. 4.1. Mid - term Elections Are a Major Uncertainty - The mid - term elections in 2026 will go through primary elections, final elections, etc. The US will focus on itself, and Sino - US relations will enter a period of relaxation when Trump visits China in April 2026 [44]. 5.1. The Logic of the US Macroeconomic - The rise of AI has intensified resource imbalance, with concentrated AI investment and weakened non - AI investment. Monetary policy is loose but ineffective, leading to idle liquidity. Fiscal policy is loose, and the "Great Beautiful Act" may have various impacts on the economy, such as affecting inflation, the stock market, and the dollar [46]. Economic Indicators - The US economic hard data shows resilience, while soft data slows down. The overall performance slows down but does not stall. The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 2% in 2026. Inflation indicators continue to slow down, with the inflation expectation dropping to 2.4%. Employment indicators continue to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.8%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp - 75bp to around 3% in 2026 [48]. Asset Outlook - Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is expected to decline by about 25bp. - Exchange rate: The US dollar index may continue to weaken. - Stocks: The US technology sector remains favored in the long term, but there may be increased volatility in the first half of the year. - Commodities: Gold has room for upward movement, oil is bearish, and there are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals [49]. China 1.1. Review of 2025 Economic Indicators and Asset Prices - In 2025, China's economic data was significantly differentiated, with stable economic growth but a significant decline in investment. Inflation indicators deviated significantly, with CPI rising and PPI contracting. The background of economic transformation will continue [54]. 2.1. Pressures in the Economic Transformation Period - In 2025, there were still problems such as insufficient effective demand, high pressure on residents' income, and persistent youth employment issues [56]. 2.2. Development Main Line: Economic Shift towards People's Livelihood - Fiscal policy involves debt monetization, central government support for local government debt, and the central bank's support for central government debt. The central bank continues to buy gold to back the RMB. Monetary policy aims to stabilize the M2/GDP ratio, and the bond market may bottom out and rebound. Industrial policy focuses on developing new - quality productivity, normalizing the real - estate market, and promoting the service industry. Income distribution is tilted towards families, and the government focuses on people's livelihood. The real - estate market is expected to bottom out slowly, and the RMB will fluctuate more with a higher center than in 2025 [58]. 2.3. Stability Main Line: Stabilizing the Supply Chain and Positioning as a Safe Asset - Domestically, China will maintain supply - chain stability by building up inventories of upstream raw materials and keeping the proportion of manufacturing in GDP stable. Externally, it will ensure resource inflows and position itself as a safe asset to attract foreign investment [60]. 3.1. The First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan - The goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan include economic growth, institutional reform, and technological and industrial upgrading. Policies will remain loose and more targeted. Monetary policy has limited room for interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and fiscal policy will be more active, with the deficit rate, special bonds, and special treasury bonds not lower than in 2025 [63]. 3.2. More Precise and Effective Monetary Policy - The direction of monetary policy includes fund - swap facilities, stock - repurchase re - loans, and consumption and housing - loan interest subsidies. The M2/GDP ratio will rise, and there may be one cut each in the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate in 2026, along with the use of structural tools [65][67]. 3.3. A Lighter Fiscal Burden in 2026 - Under the pressure of debt resolution, the bond issuance of the government sector and the growth rate of infrastructure investment have diverged. More than 60% of platforms have cleared their implicit debts. In 2026, the deficit rate, special bonds, and special treasury bonds will not be lower than in 2025, and special bonds can be used for land reserves and the acquisition of existing commercial housing [70]. 4.1. Investment Was the Main Drag on the Economy in 2025 - Investment growth remained low, and investment was the main factor dragging down the overall demand from January to November 2025 [78]. 4.2. Manufacturing and Infrastructure May Receive Support - The profits of the manufacturing industry improved in 2025, while infrastructure investment stalled [81]. 4.3. The Decline in Investment Is the Pain of Economic Transformation - The traditional investment model relying on real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing has high inventory, high debt, and low profits. Now, the focus is on improving production efficiency, and investment is shifting towards people's livelihood, consumption, and the service industry, with an emphasis on quality [84]. 4.4. Close Combination of Investment in Objects and Investment in People - The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the close combination of investment in objects and people. The proportion of people's livelihood - related investment should be increased, and the income - distribution system should be improved [86]. 4.5. Income Growth Should Be Higher Than GDP Growth - The growth rate of residents' income has declined, and it is necessary to continuously improve the income level of the resident sector [88]. 4.6. How to Increase Income Levels - Measures include deepening the income - distribution system reform, tax cuts and fee reductions, and increasing property income [94]. 4.7. The Investment Attribute of the Stock Market Is Recovering - By improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital - market system and promoting the coordination of investment and financing functions, the stock market can increase the property income of the resident sector [96]. 4.8. Full Relaxation of Real - Estate Restrictions - The real - estate market is still in a state of "falling prices and volumes" and has not stabilized as expected. Real - estate restriction policies have been fully relaxed, and special - bond funds will support the market [101]. Economic Indicators - In 2026, the economy will be low at the beginning and high at the end. The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 4.9%. Inflation indicators will rise, with core CPI reaching 1.8% and the decline of PPI narrowing to - 1%. Monetary policy will be moderately loose, with M2 remaining high, and there may be one cut each in interest rates and the reserve - requirement ratio. Fiscal policy will be more active [102]. Asset Outlook - Bonds: The 10 - year Chinese treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9%. - Exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate will rebound passively, with a center around 7. - Stocks: A - shares are still cost - effective, and attention should be paid to technology - growth and undervalued consumer sectors. - Commodities: There are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals and new - energy products, and attention should be paid to products affected by the "anti - involution" policy [106]. Asset Allocation Bonds - US 10 - year Treasury bond yields are expected to decline by about 25bp, and Chinese 10 - year treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% [111]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index may continue to weaken, and the RMB exchange rate will rebound passively, with a center around 7 [111]. Stocks - US technology stocks remain favored in the long term, and A - shares are cost - effective, with attention on technology - growth and undervalued consumer sectors [111]. Commodities - Gold has room for upward movement, oil is bearish, and there are more opportunities for non - ferrous metals and new - energy products [111]. Direction and Structure Judgment Direction Judgment - The report is bullish on equity - related assets in 2026, but the increase may be smaller than in 2025. Sino - US relations will be in a period of relaxation, and domestic A - share markets will have sufficient liquidity, but the impact of liquidity will weaken [113]. Structure Judgment - The report is more optimistic about technology - growth stocks and the profit - repair direction of "anti - involution" enterprises. If incremental policies for real estate and consumption are introduced, undervalued sectors may have opportunities for profit and valuation repair [115].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery due to expectations of a loose monetary environment at the end of the year, although volatility remains high and the market lacks a clear direction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market sentiment has improved, supported by a loose funding environment and year-end allocation expectations, providing short-term bullish opportunities for traders [1]. - The current bond market is characterized by significant volatility, influenced heavily by market sentiment and expectations, particularly as institutions face profit-taking pressures at year-end [1]. - The long-end government bond yields have limited upward space, with the key position for the 10-year government bond yield remaining at 1.85% [3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The domestic economy is in a wave-like operation phase, with internal momentum recovery being a slow variable, and the economic data showing a structural characteristic of "strong production, weak domestic demand" [3]. - The economic fundamentals are still in a bottoming phase, with increasing pressure on the demand side in the fourth quarter, leading to a weak short-term entity financing demand [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with interbank liquidity expected to maintain a balanced and loose pattern, alleviating concerns about year-end liquidity [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in the scale of central bank purchases of government bonds, as the total net injection of MLF and reverse repos decreases [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face significant pressure in 2026, with global economic visibility likely to improve, potentially impacting domestic bond markets negatively [5]. - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to exert pressure on the bond market, with a low likelihood of a repeat of the inflationary trends seen in 2006 or 2017 [5]. - The macro environment's continued warming may lead to a preference for equity markets over bonds, with increasing supply of long-end bonds and limited demand from banks and insurance companies [5][6]. Group 5: Policy Framework - The fiscal policy is expected to continue its expansionary stance, emphasizing actual spending and structural improvements, with a projected slight increase in the narrow deficit ratio to 4.2% [6]. - Monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions remain options, with a focus on flexible and efficient implementation [6][7]. - The bond market is likely to exhibit characteristics of "top and bottom" with amplified volatility, particularly in the long-end segment, while the central bank's support for year-end liquidity will bolster the mid-short end of the bond market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to significantly increase the departure tax for outbound travelers starting July next year, alongside introducing an entry fee, which has sparked public debate regarding the fairness of these measures [1][2]. Group 1: Departure Tax Increase - The "international traveler departure tax" will rise from the current 1,000 yen (approximately 45 RMB) to 3,000 yen, automatically collected when purchasing international flight tickets [2]. - The government anticipates that revenue from this tax will reach 130 billion yen by the fiscal year 2026, which is 2.7 times the revenue from the previous fiscal year [2]. Group 2: Entry Fee Proposal - A new "entry fee" is planned for 2026, with visa application fees set to increase fivefold; single-entry visa fees will rise to 15,000 yen, while multiple-entry visa fees will increase to 30,000 yen [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Pressure and Debt Concerns - The increase in departure tax and visa fees reflects broader fiscal pressures, as Japan prepares to implement its largest-ever budget next year, with surging social security and defense spending [3]. - Despite rising tax revenues, the government is expected to incur nearly 30 trillion yen in debt next year, with national debt already at twice Japan's GDP [3]. - The ongoing fiscal expansion is causing market panic and increasing downward pressure on the yen's exchange rate [3].

池上重辅补充称，尽管离境税在短期增收方面效果显著，但可能与国家的中长期利益发生冲突。大幅上 调离境税或将抑制日本国民的出境意愿。长此以往，这不仅可能导致国民国际化视野的萎缩，更会从软 实力层面削弱日本企业在全球市场的扩张能力与国际竞争力。 除了提高离境税外，日本政府还计划于2026年推出新的"入境费"方案，将签证手续费提高至现行的5 倍。单次入境签证的手续费拟提高至1.5万日元，多次入境签证费提高至3万日元。 离境税和签证手续费上调，仅是当前日本财政承压的一个缩影。由于日本计划于明年推出史上规模最大 的财政预算，社保支出和国防开支激增，将不得不通过大规模发债来填补预算。日本《京都新闻》《神 户新闻》等媒体均对政府的财政运作表达强烈质疑：即便税收连创新高，政府明年仍需举债近30万亿日 元，目前日本的国债已达日本GDP的两倍。这种持续的财政扩张正引发市场恐慌，加剧日元的汇率下行 压力。 据日本共同社报道，日本政府在26日召开的会议上已敲定上调"国际旅客出发税"的方案。自明年7月 起，每位出境旅客的征收标准将由现行的1000日元（100日元约合4.5元人民币）大幅提至3000日元，在 购买国际航班机票时自动征收。日 ...