世界银行下调了对今年全球经济增长的预测。 6月10日周二，世界银行将2025年全球经济增长预期从今年1月预测的2.7%下调至2.3%，这意味着过去 17年来，该增速仅优于2009年全球金融危机和2020年新冠疫情引发的经济衰退期间。 世界银行警告称，由于贸易紧张局势和政策不确定性，2020年代可能成为自"阿波罗登月"以来表现最差 的十年。 世界银行还警告，本世纪20年代前7年的全球年均经济增速预计仅为2.5%，为上世纪60年代以来最慢的 十年平均增长水平。 70%国家被下调经济增速 世界银行在最新发布的《全球经济展望》报告中，下调了近70%的国家的增长预期。 美国今年预计经济仅增长1.4%，比原预测下调了0.9个百分点。 欧元区与日本的增长经济增长率预期均为0.7%，分别下调了0.3和0.5个百分点。 世界银行在报告中警告称： "如果贸易限制升级或政策不确定性持续存在，经济增长可能会放缓，并可能导致金融压力 加剧。" 预计今年将有近60%的发展中经济体面临经济放缓，比1月份的预测下调了0.3个百分点。 低收入国家的增长率预期为5.3%，也比之前的预测下调了0.4个百分点。 其他风险还包括，主要经济体增长放缓的 ...

英国富时100指数有望收于历史新高 智通财经APP获悉，由于经济前景改善和贸易紧张局势缓解，英国富时100指数有望自3月份以来首次收于历史新高，收复了关税引发 的暴跌。周二，该出口导向型指数一度上涨0.4%，至8871.41点，超过了3月份8871.31点的峰值。 该英国基准股指正在追赶全球股市基准指数和德国DAX指数，后两个指数在4月份的暴跌后都重新创下了历史新高。 英国富时100指数仍比盘中最高纪录8908.82点低0.4%，市场情绪依然脆弱，因为英国面临大量公司迁往美国上市并搁置首次公开募股 (IPO) 的局面。国防承包商Babcock International Group 和BAE系统以及贵金属矿业公司Fresnillo Plc是今年该指数涨幅最大的成分股。 今年4月，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普暂停了部分关税，且英国与美国达成贸易框架协议，此后富时100指数强劲反弹。经济数据也有所改 善，英国5月份企业信心指数飙升至9个月高点。 "英国股票是欧洲最便宜的股票之一，"法国巴黎银行Markets 360欧洲股票衍生品策略主管Georges Debbas表示。"这个国家也是对美国 最友好的国家，因为它是唯一与 ...

周二(6月10日)黄金价格小幅下跌，再度逼近3300支撑位，投资者密切关注中美贸易谈判的进展——双 方都表示愿意作出让步。 在经历周一上涨0.5%后，现货金价格在3320美元附近波动。来自世界两大经济体的代表在伦敦结束首 日谈判。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，会谈"应该进行得很顺利"。 贸易紧张局势的缓解可能会提振美元，并打压以美元计价的大宗商品价格。道明证券大宗商品策略主管 Bart Melek表示："短期来看，如果会议产生积极结果，可能对黄金有一点负面影响，但不会太大。" 铂金在经历上周10%的大涨后，周一盘中一度飙升4.7%，目前维持高位，接近2021年5月以来的最高水 平。市场普遍预期白金供应紧张。此外，黄金年内累计上涨超过25%，这种看涨情绪也对其他贵金属形 成了溢出效应。 美国银行大宗商品与衍生品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示："要想金价真正突破当前区间，我们需要一 个真正的冲击事件。"该行预计金价最终将升至4000美元，但可能要到2026年才会实现。 今年，全球贸易紧张局势引发的不确定性动摇市场，也增强了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。尽管金价近 期涨势有所放缓，但围绕美国关税政策对经济影 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易紧张局势缓解，全球风险偏好整体升温 明道雨 刘慧峰 【宏观】 海外方面，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议今日将继续进行，市场对贸易紧 张局势缓解的希望，以及美国非农就业数据好于预期，缓解了市场对经济即将放 缓的担忧，全球风险偏好整体升温。国内方面，中国 5 月出口略低于预期，但贸 易顺差高于预期，短期净出口对于经济的拉动增强，短期有助于提振国内风险偏 好；此外，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议今日将继续进行，贸易谈判释放积极信号， 短期提振国内 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to macro - factors such as a weaker US dollar and optimistic sentiment from US - China trade negotiations. OPEC + production increased in May, but less than planned. The market is in a strong - side shock trend, suggesting a short - term long - bias approach. Resistance levels are given for WTI, Brent, and SC. Options can use a straddle structure [2]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply has increased, but short - term downside is limited due to downstream demand and geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term observation, 9 - 1 short - spread, and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, but there is support at low levels. Strategies are to focus on the 4600 support and use a short - on - rebound approach, and 9 - 1 short - spread. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to remain low in June, with good supply - demand structure but limited upside due to weak demand. It is expected to trade in a range, and look for 9 - 1 long - spread opportunities. - Short - fiber: Processing fee recovery is limited, and absolute price follows raw materials. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at low levels. - Bottle - chip: Supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and the processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Recent decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, but decreased in Shandong. Demand is supported by alumina. Inventory is accumulating in East China. Hold the 7 - 9 long - spread before price cuts or large - scale warehouse - receipt outflows. - PVC: Short - term is in a shock trend, but long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure will increase in June, and demand is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy [11][16]. Styrene Industry - Short - term styrene may fluctuate, and mid - term pay attention to the bearish opportunity from raw material resonance. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventory has decreased slightly, but supply may increase after plant restart [19][22]. PE and PP Industry - PE: Inventory is accumulating at the beginning of the month, with slight destocking in social inventory. Supply and demand are balanced in June, with limited up - and - down drivers. - PP: New capacity will be put into operation in June - July, and demand is in the off - season. There is a large inventory - accumulation pressure. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [26][27]. Urea Industry - High supply is not matched by demand. Agricultural demand has slightly improved but lacks activity, and industrial demand is weakened by the decline in compound fertilizer production. Future trends depend on export policy and market sentiment. [33] Methanol Industry - Supply is abundant with high domestic production and expected high imports. Demand has increased in MTO but with poor downstream profits. Price should be traded in the 2200 - 2350 range, and pay attention to the transition from implicit to explicit inventory accumulation [35]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose to $67.04/barrel, WTI to $65.35/barrel, and SC to 479.30 yuan/barrel on June 10. Various spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices changed, and their spreads and cracking spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. decreased, and cash flows of some products also declined [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX price decreased, and various PX spreads changed [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices decreased, and its spreads and basis also changed [6]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased, and to - port expectations changed. Supply and demand are expected to be good in June [6]. - **Industry开工率**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of Shandong caustic soda and East China PVC remained stable or changed slightly, and futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [12][13]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed, with PVC operating rate increasing and some profit margins improving [14]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [15][16]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some accumulating and some remaining stable [16]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China pure benzene increased [19]. - **Styrene Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and basis and month - spreads changed [20]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Overseas quotes of styrene increased, and import profits decreased [21]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: Operating rates of some industries in the styrene chain changed, and profits of some products improved significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports and downstream products changed [22]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of PE and PP changed slightly, and their spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of PE and PP enterprises and social inventories increased [26]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [26]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and upstream raw material prices remained stable. Spot prices in different regions decreased [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Agricultural and industrial demands were weak [33]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed, and various spreads and basis also changed [35]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories increased [35]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35].

有色金属周报 20250608 关税缓和，工业金属价格震荡走强 2025 年 06 月 08 日 ➢ 本周（06/02-06/06）上证综指上涨 1.13%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.88%，SW 有 色指数上涨 3.34%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+0.54%，COMEX 白银变动+9.24%。 工业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+0.12%、+1.83%、+1.25%、 +0.51%、+1.21%、+6.70%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.33%、-11.66%、-1.56%、-1.71%、+0.36%、-8.96%。 ➢ 工业金属：关税预期缓和，国内宏观持续向好，看好工业金属表现。铜方面，供 应端本周SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.29美元/干吨，环比增加0.27美元/干吨。 Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂的二轮年中谈判还未启动。刚果金 Kamoa-Kakula 铜矿有 望于本月晚些时候重启矿山西侧区域。泰克资源旗下 5 万吨 Carmen de Andacollo 铜 矿因机械故障将停产 1 个月左右。需求端本周 SMM 铜线缆企业开工 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the recent phone call between the Chinese and U.S. leaders, which aimed to ease trade tensions while also addressing the Taiwan issue, highlighting the delicate balance in U.S.-China relations [1][11]. - The call has raised concerns among Taiwanese political figures about Taiwan's potential marginalization in both economic and geopolitical contexts, particularly in light of U.S. trade policies [1][5]. - Trump's imposition of a 32% export tariff on Taiwan as part of his "reciprocal tariffs" policy is projected to have a direct impact on Taiwan's GDP, estimated between 15% to 20%, indicating significant economic repercussions for the region [3][4]. Group 2 - A recent poll indicated that 66.2% of Taiwanese respondents believe Trump would sacrifice Taiwan's interests for U.S. benefits, reflecting growing skepticism towards U.S. intentions [4]. - The phone call has intensified anxieties in Taiwan regarding its trade negotiations with the U.S., as local officials express concerns about being left behind in regional economic discussions [5][6]. - The conversation between the leaders is seen as a warning from Beijing to the Taiwanese authorities about the risks of escalating tensions, emphasizing that Taiwan is a core interest for China [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia warns that escalating trade tensions could lead to a decline in global economic growth and oil prices, which may create inflationary pressures through fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate [1] Group 1 - The potential for further declines in global economic growth rates and oil prices is highlighted as a significant concern [1] - The Central Bank indicates that these declines could impact the ruble's exchange rate, leading to inflationary pressures [1]

技术面： 基本面： 周五（6月6日）亚盘时段，现货黄金触底反弹收复隔夜部分跌幅，目前继续上探暂交投于3373美元附近。金价周四冲高回落，早些时候盘中白银突破35美元 关口，创13年新高，带动金价一度升破3400关口，创近四周新高至3403.28美元/盎司附近，但随后因中美领导人通话释放的贸易紧张局势缓和信号，现货黄 金价格收盘下跌0.6%，报每盎司3352.65美元。 6月5日，美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平的通话成为全球金融市场的焦点。特朗普在社交媒体上表示，双方在贸易问题上达成"非常积极的结论"，而 中国官方则强调应撤销对华消极举措。这场罕见的领导人对话被市场解读为贸易紧张局势解冻的信号，削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，导致现货黄金价 格在盘中高点3403.28美元后回落至3352.65美元。尽管如此，黄金今年以来已上涨约28%，显示出其在全球不确定性背景下的强劲需求。贸易紧张局势的缓 解直接影响了避险资产的表现。黄金价格的下跌反映了市场对中美贸易谈判进展的乐观预期。 此外，特朗普近期多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔降低借贷成本，称高利率阻碍了经济增长。然而，美联储内部对降息的态度分歧明显。美联储理事库格 ...

大家好，简单关注一下印度降息的消息。 印度意外降息50个基点 6月6日，印度央行——印度储备银行（RBI）出人意料地将关键回购利率下调50个基点，为连续第三次 降息，并下调银行存款准备金率，因温和的通胀为政策制定者提供了更大空间以支持经济增长。 【导读】印度重点关注经济增长，将基准利率下调50个基点，幅度超出预期；同时大幅削减准备金率 中国基金报记者泰勒 在宣布降准后，印度债市交易一度波动剧烈，最终收益率下行。此前，超预期降息一度令收益率大幅走 低，但随后因政策立场转变而部分回升。10年期基准国债收益率下跌4个基点至6.21%，卢比贬值 0.1%，股市则在下跌后收复失地。 本次降息正值印度经济增速在截至3月的财政年度放缓至6.5%之际，政策制定者面临刺激增长的更大压 力。与此同时，美国总统特朗普的关税政策引发的贸易紧张也进一步打压市场信心。 马洛特拉表示："在全球环境充满挑战、不确定性加剧的背景下，当前的经济增长仍低于我们的期望。 货币政策委员会将密切评估最新数据和经济前景的变化，以制定未来政策路径，在增长与通胀之间寻求 最佳平衡。" 消费者价格涨幅放缓，也让央行得以将重心转向提振国内需求。印度的整体通胀率过 ...