1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report is bullish on Europe, bearish on the US dollar, and expects the Japanese yen to appreciate [2][5][8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, it will be a year dominated by liquidity. Ample liquidity and loose monetary policies lead to the spill - over of US dollar liquidity, rising asset prices, but the problem of de - globalization remains unsolved, and the pressure of long - term stagflation intensifies [4]. - The US economy is in a weak recovery during the interest - rate cut cycle, with a significant increase in potential stagflation pressure. The eurozone economy has stabilized, and the euro will maintain an upward trend. The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate in 2026 [1][2][3]. - The Fed's aggressive interest - rate cut policy and the expansion of US dollar liquidity will be the most important trends in 2026. The US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken significantly, dropping to around 90, with a larger decline in the second half of the year. Commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, will continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 US: Accelerated Liquidity Injection and Hidden Stagflation Pressure 3.1.1 Labor Market: Accelerated Weakening Trend - In 2026, the US labor market will trend towards a significant weakening. The "inflection point" of the labor market has appeared, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise. The decline in the labor market is a gradual process, and the "atypical recession" of the labor market will continue. The problem of structural imbalance in the labor market caused by the expulsion of illegal immigrants may keep wage growth relatively high [14][16]. 3.1.2 Economic Recovery or Hidden Stagflation - In 2026, due to the mid - term elections, the Trump administration will maintain the current tariff level. US inflation is mainly driven by inflation inertia, wage growth expectations, and marginal liquidity. Liquidity injection is likely to be a neutral factor for inflation in 2026, and the overall inflation center in the US is expected to remain at around 3% year - on - year. The economy will experience a process of weakening and then slow recovery, and the real estate sector may be boosted [23][34]. 3.1.3 US Dollar: Continued Weakness - In 2026, the US dollar index will continue to weaken. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates rapidly, which will improve the liquidity within the system and relieve the government's debt pressure. Although inflation can remain relatively stable, the US dollar index will remain weak, and the real interest rate is expected to approach 0%. The Fed may face potential pressure to expand its balance sheet to maintain a relatively flat yield curve [37][45]. 3.2 Eurozone and Japan 3.2.1 Eurozone: Economic Strength and Currency Appreciation - The eurozone economy is in a continuous recovery state, with stable inflation and rising consumer and business confidence. Even if the Russia - Ukraine conflict reaches a cease - fire agreement, the EU will continue to expand its fiscal deficit. Fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy. The euro and European stocks performed strongly in 2025, and the current economic model of fiscal expansion and monetary stability is beneficial to the eurozone economy [46][58]. 3.2.2 Japan: Continued Appreciation of the Yen - Japan's economy is in a positive cycle, with rising GDP growth, inflation, consumer confidence, and corporate loan growth. The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. Although the expansion of fiscal deficit exerts downward pressure on the yen, the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes will lead to a rapid decline in the US - Japan interest - rate differential, which will cause the yen to appreciate. The expansion of US dollar liquidity is expected to offset the contraction of yen liquidity [61][83]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomy: From Loose to Ample Liquidity, from Simple to Complex Situation - In 2026, global market liquidity will shift from loose to ample, and asset prices will continue to rise. The weak US dollar will lead to the spill - over of US dollar liquidity and the rise of non - US assets. However, loose liquidity does not solve the problem of de - globalization, and more radical policies may be introduced in 2027. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, and the risk premium of safe - haven assets will continue to exist. The influence of fiscal policy on the global market is increasing, which will lead to long - term and irreversible inflation [84][91]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations 3.4.1 Weak US Dollar as the Main Trend in 2026 - The Fed's aggressive interest - rate cut policy and the expansion of US dollar liquidity will cause the US dollar index to continue to weaken significantly in 2026, dropping to around 90, with a larger decline in the second half of the year [93]. 3.4.2 Obvious Opportunities in Commodities - The accelerated injection of liquidity and the potential increase in inflation pressure will boost commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, which will continue to rise in 2026 [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market Outlook**: The current macro - economic data remains stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Market risk preferences have increased, and different asset classes show various trends [6][9]. - **Asset - Specific Views**: - **Bonds**: Treasury futures are expected to face some pressure, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. - **Equities**: Stock index futures are expected to have a gradually rising volatility center, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. - **Base Metals and Steel**: Most base metals and steel products show weak or volatile trends. Investors can take appropriate short - term trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as shorting at high levels or going long at low levels [14][15][17]. - **Energy**: Crude oil and fuel oil have different market situations. Crude oil may have long - entry opportunities near key price points, while fuel oil may have room for rebound. Both are currently in a wait - and - see situation [26][27][29]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some may be in a weak or strong position, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [62][70][73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.89%, 0.26%, 0.17%, and 0.07% respectively. The central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, and low treasury yields, treasury futures are expected to face pressure, and investors should be cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: Stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures changed by 0.12%, 0.22%, 0.04%, and - 0.15% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Despite weak corporate profit growth, low domestic asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, and increased market sentiment suggest that the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise, and investors can go long at the right time [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver main contracts rose by 1.34% and 1.43% respectively. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP in Q3 was 4.3%, and the US durable goods orders in October decreased by 2.2% [11][12]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, which are expected to continue rising. Investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. Base Metals and Steel Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. Tangshan billet was priced at 2960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3180 - 3320 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [14]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Due to the long - term decline in real estate demand, approaching demand off - season, and supply - side factors, rebar prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels during rebounds [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated. PB powder was priced at 788 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder at 670 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With falling iron - water output, increasing imports, and rising port inventories, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Futures may face resistance at previous highs. Investors can short at high levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and the third - round price cut for coke procurement has started [19]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short term, the futures may continue to rebound. Investors can go long at low levels [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts changed by - 0.21% and 0.18% respectively. Manganese ore shipments decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Ferroalloy production continued to decline [22]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Although the overall oversupply pressure persists, there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [22][23]. Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: INE crude oil opened high and closed low, blocked by the 20 - day moving average. Fund managers reduced net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs decreased [24][25]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: There may be long - entry opportunities near the $60 mark for Brent crude. Currently, investors are advised to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil rose significantly, closing above the 20 - day moving average. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, but it is still much higher than the average [28]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Tight Asian spot supply and stable crude oil prices support fuel oil prices. It has large rebound potential, but investors are advised to wait and see [29][30]. Chemicals Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: PP and LLDPE markets showed weak trends. PP prices were 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and LLDPE prices dropped by 50 - 120 yuan/ton [31]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The polyolefin market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction in standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors are advised to wait and see [31][32]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: Synthetic rubber main contract rose by 0.90%. Raw material prices increased, supply was abundant, and demand was weak [33][34]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [35]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: Natural rubber main contracts rose. Domestic supply decreased, and demand was weak. Inventory continued to accumulate [36]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [37]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC main contract rose by 3.02%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory decreased slightly [38][39]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [39]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Urea main contract rose by 1.24%. Daily output fluctuated slightly, demand may increase slightly, and inventory was lower than expected [40]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The downward space is limited [41]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX2603 main contract rose by 1.84%. PXN spread adjusted, and supply - demand improved [42]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Investors can participate at low levels and be vigilant about crude oil and macro - policy changes [43]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.38%. Supply decreased, demand was stable, and processing fees declined [44]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may have upward momentum. Investors can participate at low levels following cost changes [44]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Ethylene glycol main contract fell by 3.02%. Supply increased, inventory accumulated, and demand support weakened [45][46]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate at the bottom. Investors can trade within the range and pay attention to inventory and supply changes [46]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: Short - fiber 2602 main contract rose by 1.32%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and cost drive increased [47]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost and policy changes [47]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: Bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 1.75%. Processing fees declined, supply decreased slightly, and export growth improved [48]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Investors should control risks [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose by 5.67%. Supply was high, demand improved, and inventory decreased [49]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.04%. Supply was tight, and demand had short - term pressure [50]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [50][51]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum main contract rose by 0.16%, and alumina main contract rose by 0.83%. Alumina supply was in surplus, and aluminum demand was average [52][53]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [53][54]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.39%. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and inventory increased [55]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [55][56]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Lead market situation is similar to zinc, with weak supply - demand and limited upward and downward space [57]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [57][58]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin main contract fell by 1.63%. Supply was tight, and demand had certain resilience [59]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel main contract rose by 2.52%. Policy risks increased, supply was in surplus, and demand was weak [60]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to Indonesian policies [60]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. Brazilian soybean planting was almost completed, and domestic oil - mill crushing was at a high level [61][62]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Soybean meal may have long - entry opportunities at low levels, and soybean oil may have upward potential after breaking through. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities in low - level call options [62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose. Indonesian biodiesel policy and export data changed, and domestic inventory was at a medium level [63]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [65]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell slightly. Domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports changed, and inventory levels were different [66]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [67]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures were strong, and overseas cotton rose. Xinjiang's cotton policy and supply - demand reports affected the market [68][70]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to be strong [70][71]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly, and overseas raw sugar rose. Domestic and overseas sugar production and import data changed [72][73]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate weakly [74]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Apple futures oscillated, and inventory decreased slightly. New - season production and quality declined [75][77]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price rose slightly. Supply and demand factors such as sow inventory, planned slaughter, and consumption affected the market [79][80]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see and follow the slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [80]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices were stable. Egg production was high, and demand was weak [81][82]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [83]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. North - port inventory increased, and demand was slightly improved [84][85]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86].

曾获得诺贝尔经济学奖的麻省理工学院经济学家达龙·阿西莫格鲁表示："我们正经历着一个极其动荡的时期。" 逆全球化中的物流企业： 在持续动荡中极力应对 对处于全球贸易链上的企业而言，特朗普2.0时代下的2025年并不容易。4月2日，美国宣布自4月5日起对所有进口商品征收10%统一关税，同时对超过75个 国家加征对等关税，部分关税时而实施，时而撤销，还毫无预警。此举彻底打破了数十年的全球贸易自由化格局，习惯了全球化供应链的企业，不得不重新 评估其采购、制造和仓储等战略。 ▲当地时间5月2日，受关税战影响，洛杉矶港和长滩港失去了以往的繁忙 图据视觉中国 在全球贸易供应链中扮演主要角色的制造业、物流企业以及仓储货运码头企业，都面临着前所未有的政策不确定性威胁。面临新的逆全球化贸易环境，企业 开始思考，应该如何做到供应商多元化、同时管理库存，以降低风险，在全球贸易不确定性面前保持韧性。 专门从事国际贸易救济的中伦律师事务所高级顾问李斯律师向红星新闻记者分析称，从一线法律和合规实践来看，今年特朗普2.0时代给供应链上的各个企 业带来的不确定性，体现在以下几个方面： 首先，不确定性更多来自关税政策的频繁调整。特朗普"对等/互 ...

2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.28%报 111.980 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.09%报 107.980 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.06%报 105.860 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.02%报 102.464 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 22 日以固定利率、数量 ...

Group 1 - Global precious metal prices have seen significant fluctuations this year, with gold and silver reaching historical highs, and palladium and platinum futures recently experiencing substantial increases [1] - As of December 22, global precious metals collectively rose, with London gold reaching $4420.47 per ounce, up over 68% year-to-date, and London silver hitting $69.45 per ounce, up nearly 140% year-to-date [2] - Domestic precious metals also surged, with palladium and platinum futures hitting daily limits, silver futures up 6.06% year-to-date, and gold futures surpassing 1000 yuan per gram, up 62.3% year-to-date [2] Group 2 - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to abundant liquidity and strong supply constraints, with metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium benefiting from these conditions [3] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1313 tons in Q3, with investment demand surging 47% year-on-year, accounting for 55% of total demand [4] - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with a reported addition of 30,000 ounces in November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases [4] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange launched platinum and palladium futures on November 27, filling a gap in domestic derivatives, with prices for both metals rising sharply post-launch [5] - A report from Huachuang Securities suggests that the weakening of the dollar credit system and global central bank gold purchases will support long-term gold demand, with silver prices benefiting from supply-demand gaps [6] - In the A-share market, precious metal concept stocks have seen an average increase of 97.03% year-to-date, with several stocks, including Zhaojin Gold, rising over 100% [6] Group 4 - Zhaojin Gold has seen a cumulative increase of 247.61% this year, attributed to ongoing investments in its mining operations, which are expected to boost gold production in the coming years [7] - Despite the significant price increases, valuations of precious metal stocks are relatively high, with a median rolling P/E ratio of 33.12, although some stocks remain below 30 [7] - Zijin Mining has the lowest P/E ratio in the industry at 18.99, with strong performance in revenue and net profit growth, alongside ongoing expansion projects [7]

中信建投研报认为，美国11月CPI超预期降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修，黄金、白 银、铂、钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等工业金属亦表现强势。金属价格上涨的背后，一面是充裕 的流动性，另一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。 黄金需求创季度新高 今年以来，全球贵金属价格走势不平静，其中黄金和白银价格不断创出历史新高，今年11月在广州期货 交易所上市的钯和铂期货近期更是连续大涨。 贵金属价格大幅上涨 本周一（12月22日），全球贵金属主要品种集体上涨，截至17时，伦敦金现上涨近1.7%，盘中创下 4420.47美元/盎司的新高，年初至今上涨超68%；伦敦银现上涨超1.7%，盘中创出69.45美元/盎司的高 位，年初至今上涨近140%；现货铂金、现货钯金当天分别上涨超4%和近2%。 国内贵金属也大幅上涨。钯、铂期货主力合约当天均报收涨停，白银期货主力合约收盘上涨6.06%，年 内涨幅达到116.16%；黄金期货主力合约收盘再次突破100元/克，上涨2.1%，年内涨幅达到62.3%。 受贵金属价格集体上涨影响，A股、港股相关个股亦有明显涨幅。万得贵金属行业指数周一大涨4.2%， 共有3 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion revolves around the global economic landscape, particularly focusing on the implications of de-globalization and the dollar crisis on commodity supply and demand dynamics. The analysis draws parallels between the economic conditions of 2026 and 1978, particularly in the context of the United States and China. Key Points and Arguments Economic Conditions and Policies - The current commodity bull market is driven by de-globalization and the dollar crisis, similar to the situation in 1978. Supply risks are heightened due to geopolitical issues and natural disasters, such as the Indonesian copper mine disaster, while demand is supported by strategic reserves [1][2] - The U.S. fiscal policy may mirror the Carter administration's approach in 1978, with potential tax cuts under Trump's "Great America Act" aimed at stimulating economic growth. The effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to shift towards a dual mandate of maximizing employment and controlling inflation, reminiscent of the 1978 era under Chairman Miller, who maintained low interest rates despite rising inflation [1][3] China’s Economic Transition - China's economic trajectory in 2026 is likened to Japan's in 1978, transitioning from rapid industrialization to a focus on high-quality development, with GDP growth stabilizing around 5%. There is a strong inclination among residents to save rather than invest, with government support being crucial for social investment [1][4] - The challenges facing China include enhancing consumer spending, optimizing investment structures, and adapting to external environmental changes. The current low willingness for credit among residents mirrors Japan's situation during the late 1970s [5][6] Challenges for the U.S. and China - The U.S. faces challenges such as stagflation, increasing fiscal deficits, and potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence. The anticipated fiscal expansion under the "Great America Act" raises questions about its ability to effectively stimulate growth [5] - China must address issues related to high-quality development, including improving consumer sentiment and encouraging private investment, while also focusing on industrial upgrades and technological innovation [6] Impact of Monetary Policy and Currency Fluctuations - The hesitation to raise interest rates during Miller's tenure led to diminished trust in the Federal Reserve, resulting in a low real interest rate environment despite nominal rates being high. This situation contributed to a depreciation cycle for the dollar [7] - The initiation of the RMP (Reinvestment Plan) by the Federal Reserve resulted in a decline in short-term interest rates, but long-term rates did not follow suit, limiting the valuation of long-duration assets like tech stocks [8] - A weaker dollar in 2026 is expected to lead to a broad increase in commodity prices, with reduced price discrepancies across various commodities. The appreciation of the yuan and narrowing interest rate differentials may attract cross-border capital into yuan-denominated assets, enhancing their valuation and promoting foreign investment in A-shares [11] Market Insights and Future Outlook - The historical context of Japan's stock market rise in 1978 due to yen appreciation and foreign capital influx provides insights for China's market, which is poised for a financialization phase. The anticipated interactions between the U.S. and Chinese markets could lead to favorable conditions for China's market performance in 2026 [12] - Key sectors to watch in the Chinese market include cyclical industries such as photovoltaics, power equipment, chemicals, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as consumer companies with high operational leverage, like airlines and tourism. The expected commodity bull market also presents significant opportunities [13]

【黄金期货最新行情】 数据显示，12月22日上海黄金现货价格报价986.20元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1000.86元/克）贴水 14.66元/克。 当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。 各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储有望持续降息，也 利好贵金属。 【机构观点】 大有期货：黄金已行至历史高位区域 上行阻力逐渐加大 近期市场对美联储降息预期的持续升温，以及避险情绪的反复发酵，对贵金属价格形成显著支撑，金银 整体维持偏强震荡格局。短期来看，地缘不确定性及疲软经济数据仍可能带来阶段性避险需求，利率政 策转向的预期亦构成底部利好。 然而需警惕的是，当前市场对降息节奏的定价已较为充分，多头持仓 相对拥挤，若后续美国通胀或就业数据超预期强劲，可能引发预期修正与获利了结，加大价格波动。技 术面上，黄金已行至历史高位区域，短期追高风险累积，上行阻力逐渐加大。 | 12月22日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 23 | | 免责声明 | | 25 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.22%报 112.660 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.10%报 108.150 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.970 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.490 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 19 日以固定利率、数量 ...

重要信息点评 1、海关总署发布数据显示，2025年前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿元人民币，同比增长 3.6%。其中，出口24.46万亿元，增长6.2%；进口16.75万亿元，增长0.2%。11月份，我国货物贸易增速 回升，进出口总值3.9万亿元，增长4.1%。其中，出口2.35万亿元，增长5.7%；进口1.55万亿元，增长 1.7%。 2、美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%– 3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议投票为9 票赞成、3票反对，部分委员主张维持利率不变或更大降幅。会议声明指出经济温和扩张，就业增长放 缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足， 自12月12日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点阵图预测显示在2026年和2027年各 有一次25个基点的降息。 3、美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，将逐次会议依据数据决策。通胀仍 偏高，但非关税驱动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商 ...