【内容摘要】 1 月 30 日，资金面整体均衡平稳；债市偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体下跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》】 2 月 1 日出版的第 3 期《求是》杂志发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展 之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，建设金融强国，必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。一 是科学稳健的金融调控体系，二是结构合理的金融市场体系，三是分工协作的金融机构体系， 四是完备有效的金融监管体系，五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系，六是自主可控、安 全高效的金融基础设施体系。 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%；资金面整体均衡平稳，债市偏强震荡 （三）大宗商品 【国际原油期货价格转跌，国际天然气价格转涨】1 月 30 日，WTI 3 月原油期货收跌 0.32%， 报 65.21 美元/桶；布伦特 3 月原油期货收跌 0.03%，报 70.69 美元/桶；COMEX 黄金期货下跌 8.88%，报 4846.20 美元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for China's financial sector, particularly for small and medium-sized banks (SMBs) to transition from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" amidst various challenges and opportunities [1] Group 1: Strategic Positioning - SMBs must align their new strategies with national directives, focusing on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance to avoid homogenization [2] - Emphasis on local core customer groups and unique industries is essential, moving away from a "big and complete" expansion mindset to a "small, beautiful, specialized, and precise" differentiation strategy [2] - SMBs should balance policy guidance with market demand, prioritizing quality and risk control while defining business boundaries and development priorities [2] Group 2: Supply-Side Reform - Optimizing the shareholder structure is key for SMB governance, focusing on reducing the number of natural person shareholders and introducing strong strategic investors [3] - Rural SMB reforms should follow a "one province, one policy" approach, integrating resources to enhance risk resistance and service levels [3] - Strengthening shareholder management and transparency is vital to improve governance and decision-making efficiency [3] Group 3: Policy Opportunities - SMBs should actively pursue core licenses, particularly for wealth management companies, to enhance non-interest income and competitiveness [4] - Collaboration with licensed wealth management firms can help SMBs maintain market share while developing differentiated financial products [4] - Expanding into fund sales, insurance agency, and consumer finance licenses will diversify business and improve profitability [4] Group 4: Digital Transformation - Digital transformation is essential for SMBs to enhance service efficiency and reduce operational costs, focusing on practical applications rather than just technology [5][6] - Prioritizing the digitalization of high-frequency services like retail loans and payments will improve customer service efficiency [5] - Building a digital risk management system using big data and AI will enhance risk assessment and monitoring capabilities [8] Group 5: Capital Supplementation - Capital adequacy is critical for SMBs, with IPOs being a primary focus for capital supplementation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] - SMBs must improve governance and asset quality to meet IPO requirements while exploring other capital tools like perpetual bonds and preferred shares [7] Group 6: Risk Management - Enhancing risk management capabilities through digital means is crucial for SMBs facing various risks [8] - Establishing a comprehensive digital risk control system will facilitate real-time monitoring and risk assessment [8] - Focusing on key risk areas and developing differentiated risk standards will help manage credit and operational risks effectively [8] Group 7: Scene Finance - Scene finance is vital for SMBs to achieve differentiation and enhance customer loyalty by integrating financial services with everyday scenarios [9] - Targeting high-frequency areas like education and healthcare will improve customer engagement and service accessibility [9] - Collaborating with local governments and enterprises to create a financial ecosystem will expand customer reach and enhance service offerings [9] Group 8: Pension Finance - The aging population presents a significant opportunity for SMBs to develop pension finance products tailored to different customer segments [10][11] - Offering a range of pension products and services will cater to varying customer needs and enhance customer retention [10] - Integrating pension finance with community services will create a comprehensive service model that boosts customer loyalty [11] Group 9: Local Industry Development - SMBs should leverage local government support to align with regional economic development and enhance their service offerings [12] - Focusing on local industries and customizing financial products to meet specific needs will strengthen SMBs' market position [12] - Participating in local financial ecosystems will enhance brand influence and foster a mutually beneficial relationship with the community [12] Group 10: Channel Optimization - Physical branches must evolve from transaction-focused to service-oriented spaces, enhancing customer experience [13] - Implementing smart technologies in branches will streamline operations and improve service quality [13] - Creating specialized branches that cater to local needs will increase customer traffic and engagement [13]

科技金融是推动科技与金融双向促进的重要支撑。在金融"五篇大文章"中，科技金融位居首位。习近平 总书记指出："要做好科技金融这篇文章，引导金融资本投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技。"当前，我国 经济正处在高质量发展爬坡过坎的重要关口，加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力，已成为 转变发展方式、推动产业体系向高阶形态跃迁、塑造未来国际竞争优势的战略选择。党的二十届四中全 会《建议》要求大力发展科技金融。去年底召开的中央经济工作会议要求引导金融机构加力支持扩大内 需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，把"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"列入今年经济工作要 抓好的重点任务并明确要求创新科技金融服务，为加快发展科技金融明确了方向。"十五五"时期，要深 刻理解和把握科技金融对于加快高水平科技自立自强、以科技现代化支撑中国式现代化的战略意义，加 快构建与科技创新相适配、能充分发挥有力支撑作用的科技金融体系。 科技金融具有丰富内涵和战略属性 习近平总书记指出："科技是第一生产力，为人类文明进步提供了不竭动力""金融是现代经济的核心"。 纵观历次工业革命历程，科技创新始终是推动生产力发展的根本动力。同时，每一次突破性科学创新 ...

党的二十届四中全会通过的"十五五"规划建议，系统擘画了全面建成社会 主义现代化强国的发展蓝图，金融强国首次纳入五年规划，成为国家中长 期发展战略。建设金融强国的战略定位，在推动我国经济发展的实践中不 断强化和深化。 "国家兴衰，金融有责。"从历史经验看，大国崛起离不开强大金融体系的关键支撑，世界强国必然是金融强国。2023年10月，习近平总 书记在中央金融工作会议上明确提出加快建设金融强国的战略目标；2024年1月，总书记在省部级主要领导干部推动金融高质量发展专题 研讨班开班式上系统阐释金融强国的核心内涵；党的二十届四中全会通过的"十五五"规划建议，系统擘画了全面建成社会主义现代化强 国的发展蓝图，金融强国首次纳入五年规划，成为国家中长期发展战略。建设金融强国的战略定位，在推动我国经济发展的实践中不断 强化和深化。 改革开放以来，随着经济体制改革和社会主义市场经济的发展，我国金融业从高度集中的"大一统"模式出发，逐渐发展出功能完备的包 括金融调控、金融市场、金融机构、金融监管、金融产品和服务、金融基础设施在内的现代金融体系，没有发生阻断经济发展的金融危 机，牢牢守住了不发生系统性风险的底线，这在世界大国中是独 ...

亚商投顾曾宪瑞老师提醒大家：股市有风险，投资需要多加小心，避免不必要的风险。 一、大盘 1.盘面 上证指数早盘小幅低开，随后震荡调整，午后跌幅扩大，截止收盘，指数下跌2.48%，收出大阴线，全天成交额1.16万亿，相比上交易日的1.27万亿，减少 了1100亿。 深证成指早盘小幅低开，随后震荡下跌，午后调整加速，截止收盘，指数下跌2.69%，收出大阴线，全天成交额1.42万亿，相比上交易日的1.57万亿，减少 了1500亿。 2.技术分析 图片来源：东方财富 上证指数今日低开低走，大幅下跌，个股跌停数量也是近百只，市场情绪明显转冷，恐慌盘集中释放。从技术面来看，MACD绿柱加速伸长，空方动能明显 增强；KDJ指标中三线死叉后迅速下穿50中轴，短期空头占优格局进一步确；且短期均线亦黏合死叉，多空博弈加剧，指数上行阻力明显增大。因此在量价 配合转弱、热点持续性差，市场进入典型的"空方主导+多空拉锯"阶段下，操作上更要强化纪律——不追高、不抢反弹、不满仓，宁可错过、不可做错；建 议将仓位进一步压缩，耐心等待风险充分释放后，逢低低吸或更为稳妥。 深证成指今日低开后震荡走弱，盘中一度跌破30日均线支撑，截止收盘跌幅超2 ...

Wind数据显示，截至1月28日，已有10余家上市券商披露"2025年度成绩单"，整体呈现快速增长态势， 多家归母净利润同比增速超50%。从短、中、长三个周期维度看，券商行业或正迎来系统性机会。 （数据来源：Wind，截至2026.1.28；资料参考：经参政券《上市券商2025业绩密集预喜 或迎估值修复 窗口期》，2026.1.29） 业绩普遍预喜，复苏势头明确。 近期密集发布的业绩预告印证了行业的高景气度。机构预计，43家上市券商2025年主营业务收入同比增 长34%，归母净利润同比增长49%。此外，展望2026年1月，机构预计上市券商单月整体经营业绩有望 回升至近12个月以来的高位。（数据来源：方正证券；资料参考：券商中国《又见券商"报喜"，2025年 净利增速超50%或成标配？》，2026.1.27；中原证券《券商板块2025年12月回顾及2026年1月前瞻》， 2026.1.29） 估值处于低位，具备修复空间。 Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月28日，证券公司（399975.SZ）的市盈率（TTM）、市净率（LF）分别 为16.09倍、1.46倍，分别位于近十年从低到高的11.16%、36.70% ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities in cyclical industries from price expectations to performance realization, particularly focusing on the relationship between commodities and US Treasury yields [5][7] - In the week ending January 30, 2026, global stock markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and the UK markets leading gains, while major commodity futures like crude oil saw significant increases [5][6] - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December, indicating a contraction influenced by the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month [10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the correlation between commodity prices and US Treasury yields, noting that during different economic phases, their relationship varies, particularly at economic turning points [8][9] - The January PMI data indicates a decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, with the manufacturing PMI reflecting a drop due to seasonal factors and high base effects [10][12] - The report outlines new regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at standardizing public fund performance benchmarks, which will take effect on March 1, 2026, to protect long-term investor interests [14][15] Group 3 - The report notes that the high-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing sectors remain above the prosperity line, while downstream consumer goods manufacturing has not sustained its previous strength, reflecting weak domestic demand [11][13] - The report indicates that the service sector's PMI also showed weakness, particularly in the real estate sector, which has seen a significant decline, impacting overall confidence [12][13] - The report suggests that the new regulations will enhance transparency and accountability in fund management, thereby improving investor trust and decision-making [17][18]

股指关注美元指数，债市 或震荡运行 2026-02-02 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 目 录 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、长江期货 p 国债走势回顾：30年期主力合约跌0.23%，10年期主力合约涨0.06%，5年期主力合约涨0.01%，2年期 主力合约持平。 p 核心观点：《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》。习近 平：发挥比较优势，坚持稳中求进，推动我国未来产业发展不断取得新突破。目前债市无显性重大利空，债 市总体上震荡偏多。但暂无更进一步推动利率下行的动力，经过年初以来的修复之后，配置盘可能已经建立 不少仓位。在当前位置上，如果不能吸引更多配置资金入场，债券收益率下方空间恐怕相当有限，债市可能 在一个相对比较窄的区间横盘，等待下一阶段主线的产生。国债或震荡运行。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示T主力合约或震荡运行。 p 策略展望：震荡运行。 p 风险提示： ...

Group 1: Domestic News - President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the need to build a modern financial system with a focus on a scientific and stable financial regulation system, a reasonable financial market structure, and effective financial supervision [2] - In 2025, the national public budget revenue is projected to be 21.6045 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024, with tax revenue increasing by 0.8% to 17.6363 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3, indicating a decline in economic activity, while the factory price index has risen above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are at 49.4 and 49.8, respectively, both showing a decrease from the previous month [3] Group 3: Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on consolidating the capital market's positive momentum and enhancing the adaptability of regulatory systems [4] - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms in the capital market, improve the convenience and attractiveness of refinancing systems, and support the development of a modern industrial system [4] Group 4: International News - The U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a partial government shutdown is expected due to the House of Representatives not being in session until February 2 [5] - President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who has previously criticized quantitative easing and emphasized the need for closer collaboration between the Fed and the Treasury [6] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices have declined, with WTI crude down 0.32% to $65.21 per barrel, while natural gas prices increased by 13.9% to $4.416 per million British thermal units [7] Group 6: Financial Market Operations - On January 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 477.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net cash injection of 352.5 billion yuan for the day [8] - The overall funding environment remains stable, with the DR001 rate decreasing by 3.36 basis points to 1.328% [9] Group 7: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a strong upward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.50 basis points to 1.8100% [12] - The credit bond market experienced significant price deviations, with certain bonds like "21 Vanke 04" dropping by 17.52% [13] Group 8: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw major indices decline, with the China convertible bond index down by 1.73% on January 30 [15] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market reached 93.272 billion yuan, an increase of 2.399 billion yuan from the previous trading day [15]

要提升服务质效，顺应"十五五"时期高质量发展的战略需要、阶段特征和结构特点，切实加强对重大战 略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融支持，做好金融"五篇大文章"，优化对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企 业的金融供给质量，促进稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。 要加强预期管理，强化金融政策与财政、产业等政策协调配合，打好"组合拳"，形成同向合力、放大政 策效能、提振社会信心。 2、广东：健全上市培育孵化体系，支持突破关键核心技术的科技型企业上市 01. 宏观要闻 1、中央金融办：锚定建设金融强国目标 走好中国特色金融发展之路 中央金融委员会办公室、中央金融工作委员会在《求是》杂志发文指出，精准务实促进高质量发展。经 济金融共生共荣，只有将金融发展融入经济社会高质量发展大局中，才能实现金融自身的高质量发展。 要优化宏观调控，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的 重要考量。 1、21家A股上市公司披露并购重组最新公告 据不完全统计，过去一周(1月26日-2月1日)包括华大智造、吉华集团、民爆光电、中国铝业、凯德石 英、ST西发、江丰电子、美芯晟、科达制造、海南矿业、泰凌微、嘉事堂、璞泰来、盈新 ...