Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision marks the official restart of the rate-cutting cycle, with an additional rate cut expected in 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's current position is described as the most dovish stance possible, acknowledging weaker-than-expected employment market performance [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision has been relatively muted, as the policy stance did not exceed market expectations [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cuts - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1] - A single 50 basis point cut may not necessarily benefit the credit environment, suggesting a more gradual policy approach could be more favorable for market stability [1] Group 3: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is currently supported in the range of 97.70 to 97.90, with resistance at 98.30 to 98.50 [1] - A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards the 99 level, while a drop below 97.50 may result in a further decline towards 97.00 [1] - The RSI indicator shows weak momentum, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1]

消息面上，近日，8月美国非农数据公布。华福证券认为，美联储如期降息25个基点，符合预期，声明 中首次承认"上半年经济增长放缓、就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升、通胀持续高企"，对平衡通胀及就 业风险的措辞表现更加鸽派。贵金属在降息和避险情绪驱动下表现强势。长江证券表示，降息周期初期 金价延续震荡上行格局不变。需要注意学习效应下，市场在降息后或将注重再通胀风险，将触发银金比 显著修复。 中信建投指出，美国8月季调后非农就业人口、2025年全年非农就业下调均低于预期，8月失业率创2021 年10月以来新高，首次申请失业金人数超预期、9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数低于预期，显示美国就 业现状疲软，经济有衰退可能。同时，美国8月PPI大幅低于预期，CPI和核心CPI符合预期，通胀情况 使得美联储9月降息，市场预期2025年底前美联储还将降息2次。在这种情况下，黄金的金融属性使其在 降息周期前期和中期更具吸引力。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股多数上涨，截至发稿，灵宝黄金(03330)涨4.74%，报17.24港元；招金矿业 (01818)涨4.5%，报29.28港元；中国白银集团(00815)涨4%，报0.52港元；山东黄金( ...

降息周期开启，周期有何投资机会？20250921 摘要 BDI 指数在历史降息周期中显著上涨，当前干散货运价仍处底部。关注 招商轮船、海通发展等标的，以及在新兴市场具有成长性的嘉友国际。 降息利好新兴市场基建和消费，推动资金流入。看好极兔速递在新兴市 场电商爆发期的发展潜力，尤其是在东南亚和拉美地区。 美元贬值及人民币升值利好航空板块，带来汇兑收益。推荐华夏航空、 港股中的国航、东航、南航，以及 A 股中的吉祥航空和春秋航空。 游轮运价近期大幅上涨，供需关系反转是主因。OPEC 恢复产量， VLOC 游轮交付量减少，美国制裁影响供给。推荐具备游轮和干散货双 重优势的招商轮船。 8 月通达系快递单票价格上涨，9 月涨价区域扩大至全国 90%件量份额 区域，快递行业反内卷成功，业绩有望改善。推荐圆通、申通及极兔速 递。 美联储降息打开国内降息空间，中美关系缓和利好风险偏好。化工行业 PPI 降幅收窄，景气度见底。关注烯烃（宝丰能源、卫星化学）、涤纶、 有机硅（新安股份、三友化工、东岳硅材）和农化（亚钾国际、东方铁 塔）子板块。 市场对有色金属板块看多，预计下周将交易降息预期。铜和黄金预计领 涨，关注紫金矿业、中国 ...

首席 点 评 ： 中美 关系稳定发展 国家主席同美国总统通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系 稳定发展作出战略指引。国务院总理主持召开国务院常务会议，研究关于在政府采购中实施本国产品标 准及相关政策，强调要对各类经营主体一视同仁、平等对待，切实保障公平竞争。上海优化调整房产税 政策，对于持居住证的人才，以及居住证满 3 年的居民家庭，首套房免税，人均 60 平方米以内的二套 房免税。海外日本央行决定维持基准利率在 0.5% 不变，连续第五次按兵不动。受美联储降息预期强 化，市场风险偏好提升，加上企业盈利数据向好等因素推动，美股收创历史新高，美债利率上行，贵金 属上涨，原油价格下跌 。 重点品种： 黄金、原油、股指 黄金： 美联储利率决议后金银回落，周五晚间再度走强。美国周初请失业金人数回落至 23.1 万人，创 近四年来最大降幅，预期 24 万人。 9 月美联储风险管理式降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期。仅有刚被任 命的美联储理事米兰支持降息 50 个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景下，美联储的降息姿态仍然较为谨 慎。本周公布的美国 8 月零售销售表现强劲，环比增长 0.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bullish outlook for gold prices, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical and economic concerns [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - International gold prices reached a new historical high, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains, with a weekly closing price of $3,684.59 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of $40.25 or 1.1% [1]. - The price opened at $3,644.34 per ounce, recorded a weekly low of $3,626.47, and peaked at $3,707.00 mid-week before closing strong [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Expectations of two additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have bolstered gold prices, despite some profit-taking and a less dovish stance from Fed Chair Powell [3][5]. - The U.S. government's risk of shutdown and the impact of tariffs on steel and aluminum products have also provided support for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market anticipates that gold will continue to benefit from a loose monetary policy environment, with projections indicating three rate cuts this year and one next year [5]. - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to factors such as global monetary easing, weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system, and ongoing geopolitical risks [5][7].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. is predicted to enter a phase of simultaneous interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion, with a higher likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1][2] - Historical precedents suggest that U.S. presidents often achieve their desired monetary policies, indicating that the current administration may push for lower interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve's role may be diminished as stablecoins act as "price-insensitive buyers" of U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially altering the dynamics of monetary policy [1][14] Group 2: Bitcoin and Stablecoins - Bitcoin is viewed as a core asset for hedging against fiat currency devaluation, with its performance expected to be strong in the context of increasing money supply [2][17] - The potential influx of approximately $10 trillion into stablecoins could significantly impact the DeFi ecosystem, providing liquidity and driving demand for decentralized finance protocols [12][19] - Stablecoins are anticipated to facilitate a shift in how monetary policy is executed, with their underlying assets possibly mandated to be held in banks or T-bills, thus influencing short-term interest rates [14][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The growth of stablecoins and DeFi protocols is expected to create substantial investment opportunities, particularly in projects like Hyperliquid, which could become a leading trading platform [19][20] - The potential for a $34 trillion total addressable market for stablecoins indicates a significant shift in capital flows, with implications for traditional banking and investment strategies [11][12] - The current economic environment may lead to increased speculation in cryptocurrencies, as individuals seek alternative investment avenues amid fiat currency depreciation [21][26]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, reducing rates by 25 basis points, indicating a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by stagnant income growth, insufficient consumer confidence, and a sluggish real estate market, which are core factors constraining recovery [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may initiate a new round of rate cuts starting in September, potentially lowering rates three times by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [4] Group 2 - The adjustment in interest rates is expected to significantly narrow the interest rate differential with other major economies, alleviating currency depreciation pressure and providing more operational space for monetary policy in other economies [4] - The real estate market is a key area for observing the effects of policy changes, with mortgage rate adjustments being a critical variable influencing market dynamics [6] - While lower interest rates can reduce borrowing costs, the level of housing prices is seen as the core determinant of demand release, with current weak income expectations leading to persistent market hesitation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not provided explicit guidance on future interest rate cuts but has released positive signals regarding economic fundamentals, inflation expectations, and financial markets, indirectly raising expectations that the "rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end" [1][4] Economic Activity Outlook - In September, the ECB noted continued growth in manufacturing and services, emphasizing that previous rate cuts and government fiscal policies have created positive momentum for the economy [2] - The ECB believes that rate cuts will further stimulate consumption and investment, with government spending on infrastructure and defense expected to support investment in the Eurozone [2] External Economic Environment - The ECB has shifted its stance on external risks, indicating that while trade tensions and a strong euro may suppress growth in the short term, these negative impacts are expected to dissipate by 2026 [2][3] - The recent trade agreement between the US and EU is anticipated to reduce uncertainty, leading the ECB to view the risks to Eurozone economic growth as more balanced [2] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the factors driving inflation are dissipating, leading to a more stable inflation outlook, with current inflation around 2%, close to the medium-term target [3][4] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate an upward revision for 2025 and 2026 inflation rates, with projections of 2.1% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, while the 2027 forecast was slightly lowered to 1.9% [3] Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB maintains that despite inflation being below target, there is no need to alter monetary policy due to "minor deviations" [4] - The ECB has signaled a commitment to maintaining current interest rates and will continue to adopt a "data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting" approach to determine appropriate monetary policy [4] Market Stability - The ECB has reassured markets regarding the stability of the Eurozone sovereign bond market, indicating that it has the necessary tools to address risks if market conditions deteriorate [4][5] - Despite a reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts, some institutions still believe that the ECB may adopt a more dovish stance if certain factors arise [4][6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include financial market volatility and unexpected changes in external monetary policies, particularly if the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance [5][6] - The ECB is currently more optimistic about external conditions and internal momentum, which supports its decision to maintain the current monetary policy stance [5][6]

新华财经北京9月20日电在英国央行于周四宣布维持关键利率不变后，包括摩根大通、高盛、摩根士丹 利和美国银行在内的多家主要金融机构纷纷调整预测，认为英国央行在2025年内将不再进一步降息。 此次利率决定紧随8月英国央行实施25个基点降息之后，符合市场普遍预期。央行决策层选择暂停降 息，主要考量因素为通胀压力持续存在，以及经济增长和就业前景仍存不确定性。 高盛与摩根士丹利目前预计，英国央行的下一轮宽松周期将始于2026年2月，并在此后以每季度降息一 次的节奏推进。但两家机构同时指出，若未来经济数据出现明显恶化，12月仍存在降息的可能性。 摩根大通亦将其对首次降息时间的预测从2025年11月推迟至2026年2月和4月。该行强调，若经济数据动 能显著减弱，12月降息仍为一种潜在情景。 花旗分析师在一份报告中指出："货币政策委员会（MPC）采取的是反应式策略，这为短期政策调整留 下了较大空间。"这表明未来政策走向将高度依赖即将公布的数据表现。 相比之下，巴克莱仍维持其基线预测，认为英国央行可能在11月启动降息。该行指出，鉴于央行对经济 数据的高度依赖性，若即将发布的数据显现疲软迹象，或将为宽松政策提供支持。 （文章来源 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's hint of a slowdown in future interest rate cuts, leading to market divergence and profit - taking. However, there are still medium - to long - term supporting factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the de - dollarization trend, so the bottom support of the gold price is stable after the correction [3]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern of tin in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [18][97]. - The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [36][37][38]. - The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [66]. - For the nickel industry chain, there are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - For lithium carbonate, the "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - For the silicon industry chain, the short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Analysis**: The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and the rebound of the US dollar index, but the bottom support is stable due to factors such as central bank gold purchases. The trading data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures are presented in multiple charts [3]. - **Long - term Factors**: Global central bank gold purchases continue, for example, China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, and Switzerland's gold exports to China have soared by 254%. Geopolitical risks and the de - dollarization trend remain unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Sentiment**: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment [18]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper futures and spot are provided, including domestic and foreign markets. The import profit and loss, processing fees, and inventory data are also presented [19][22][28][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Price**: The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend [36]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The core contradiction of bauxite lies in the tight domestic ore, low Guinea bauxite shipments, and high inventory [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum [38]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [39][45][53][62]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline [66]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [67][73][78]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Industry Situation**: There are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The Fed's interest rate cut cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [97]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [98][102][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Support**: The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Outlook**: The short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, as well as production, inventory, and cost data [118][125][133][142].