Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) currently sees no reason to adjust monetary policy as inflation in the Eurozone remains close to the 2% target, according to ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor, Pereira [1][6][7] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Pereira emphasized that the responsibility has shifted to national governments and the EU to implement structural reforms to address the sluggish growth in the Eurozone [1][6] - He highlighted the importance of deepening the single market and noted that the EU still lacks a truly unified market [1][6] - The ECB has completed its role in supporting the economy when necessary, and now it is up to governments and the European Commission to drive reforms [1][6] Group 2: Employment Data - Eurozone unemployment rate decreased from 6.4% in October to 6.3% in November, marking the first decline since April of the previous year [1][7] - This drop in unemployment is significant as it is the first time the rate has been at this level since hitting a historical low of 6.2% in November 2024 [1][7] - The unexpected decline in unemployment indicates a tight labor market despite sluggish economic activity, reinforcing confidence in the stability of the labor market in the region [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is expected to shift market focus back to economic data and interest rate outlooks, following a period of geopolitical concerns [2][17]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with November job openings dropping to 7.15 million, the lowest in 14 months, resulting in a ratio of 0.91 job openings per unemployed person, the lowest since March 2021 [3][17]. - The ADP report indicates that 41,000 private sector jobs were added in December, which is above the previous value but slightly below expectations, with four instances of negative growth since June [3][17]. - Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 208,000, up from 200,000, although the four-week average has significantly decreased [3][17]. Market Expectations - The market anticipates an addition of 60,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm report, down from a previous value of 64,000, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [3][17]. - Hourly wage growth is projected to rise to 3.6% [3][17]. Federal Reserve Perspective - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the downward risks in the job market, maintaining a forecast for one rate cut this year, although there are significant divisions among market participants [5][19]. - The interest rate market is leaning towards a more dovish stance, betting on two rate cuts this year, with an 86% probability that the January meeting will not result in a rate change [5][19]. Market Reactions - Traders are adopting a cautious approach ahead of the non-farm report, with both stock markets and precious metals slowing their upward momentum [5][19]. - If the employment data falls short of expectations, it could heighten rate cut anticipations, benefiting risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, while gold and silver may aim for historical highs [5][19]. - Conversely, a strong report could lead to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index [5][19].

来源：市场资讯 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观 点、结论和建议仅供参考，并不构成任何具体产品、业务的推介以及相关品种的操作依据和建议，投资 者据此作出的任何投资决策自负盈亏，与本公司和作者无关。 短期贵金属聚焦地缘事件进展。隔夜市场，美国财政部部长贝森特表示，美国将取消部分针对委内瑞拉 实体的制裁；美总统表示2027财年美国军费应提升至1.5万亿美元，相当于较今年预算增逾50%。在美 激增军费下，引起各方猜疑，黄金出现先抑后扬表现。另外1月降息概率较低，截止1月9日早盘，根据 CME美联储观察数据，1月维持利率水平不变的概率为88.4%，降息25个基点的概率为11.6%。经济数据 方面，美国首次申请失业救济人数为20.8万人。该数据虽较前值19.9万人小幅回升，但仍低于市场预期 的21.2万人，现实劳动力市场基本面的稳固。美联储的报告显示，消费者预计未来一年物价将上涨 3.4%，高于11月的3.2%。美联储内部官员继续存在较大分 ...

今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于1003元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报1003.70元/ 克，跌幅0.14%，最高上探至1006.41元/克，最低触及999.48元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡走 势。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于1003元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报1003.70 元/克，跌幅0.14%，最高上探至1006.41元/克，最低触及999.48元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡 走势。 【要闻速递】 分析人士认为，美国早已在格陵兰岛拥有广泛军事准入，丹麦更是北约重要盟友，无论获取资源还是控 制航道，都无需通过代价高昂的主权变更来实现。特朗普政府执意推动"夺岛"，更可能意在重塑跨大西 洋关系格局。 上月发布的国家安全战略中，特朗普政府将欧洲定位为意识形态与地缘政治对手，显露对盟友的敌意。 随着美欧裂痕加深，美方越发倾向绕过欧洲盟友，直接掌控战略要地和关键资源。 此举引发欧洲强烈反对。丹麦、法国、德国、意大利、波兰、西班牙、英国等7国领导人，以及北欧5国 外长6日发表联合声明，强调只有丹麦和格陵兰岛有权决定自身事务。欧洲舆论 ...

值得一提的是，近期多家上市黄金矿企发布业绩预喜。灵宝黄金预计2025年度取得净利润人民币介于约 15.03亿元至约15.73亿元，同比增加约115%至125%；紫金矿业预计全年实现归母净利润510亿至520亿 元，同比增幅约为59%至62%；赤峰黄金则预计全年净利润同比增加约70%到81%。 消息面上，近期地缘风险与降息预期支撑金价，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四再度向美联储施压， 并称该行需要尽其所能促进经济投资，利率应该大幅降低。当前市场关注将于今晚公布的2025年12月非 农就业报告。摩根士丹利在报告中预测，黄金价格将在2026年第四季度升至每盎司4800美元，突破去年 创下的历史纪录。该投行认为，利率下行、美联储领导层更迭，以及各国央行和基金持续买入，将共同 推动金价进一步上涨。 黄金股多数走高，截至发稿，山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨5.8%，报39.78港元；招金矿业(01818)涨 4.8%，报35.82港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨3.12%，报38.86港元；赤峰黄金（600988）(06693) 涨3.11%，报29.85港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，黄金股多数走高，截至发稿，山东黄金(01787)涨5.8%，报39.78港元；招金矿业 (01818)涨4.8%，报35.82港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨3.12%，报38.86港元；赤峰黄金(06693)涨3.11%，报 29.85港元。 值得一提的是，近期多家上市黄金矿企发布业绩预喜。灵宝黄金预计2025年度取得净利润人民币介于约 15.03亿元至约15.73亿元，同比增加约115%至125%；紫金矿业预计全年实现归母净利润510亿至520亿 元，同比增幅约为59%至62%；赤峰黄金则预计全年净利润同比增加约70%到81%。 消息面上，近期地缘风险与降息预期支撑金价，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四再度向美联储施压， 并称该行需要尽其所能促进经济投资，利率应该大幅降低。当前市场关注将于今晚公布的2025年12月非 农就业报告。摩根士丹利在报告中预测，黄金价格将在2026年第四季度升至每盎司4800美元，突破去年 创下的历史纪录。该投行认为，利率下行、美联储领导层更迭，以及各国央行和基金持续买入，将共同 推动金价进一步上涨。 ...

商 品 研 究 2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回调 | 2 | | 铜：LME库存减少，价格回落受限 | 4 | | 锌：高位回落 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：高位松动 | 9 | | 铝：市场情绪降温 | 10 | | 氧化铝：供应过剩未改 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：ETF持仓流出，存在抛压 | 12 | | 钯：整体跟随铂，略微偏强 | 12 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：高位回调 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Fed Governor Milan indicates about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026, and CME rate futures price in two rate cuts in June and September. The US labor market shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims low but continuing claims rising. The dollar index rebounds, and metal prices adjust for two consecutive days. In China, January economic data is in a vacuum, and the A - share market is in a structural game phase [2]. - Precious metals face increased adjustment pressure due to regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3][4]. - Copper prices are under short - term pressure from long - position profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend. Supply disruptions in Chile and inventory changes are key factors [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment as funds flow out and inventory accumulates. Alumina and cast aluminum are also adjusting in line with the overall market [7][8][11]. - Zinc, lead, and tin prices are adjusting due to factors such as market caution before non - farm data, changes in environmental policies, and profit - taking by funds [12][14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices decline as the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations [17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, demand seasonality, and supply trends. Double - coking prices are influenced by production news and market sentiment [18][19][21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices show different trends. Rapeseed meal drops significantly, and soybean meal returns to a volatile state, influenced by export data, weather, and trade relations [22][23]. - Palm oil is expected to trade in a range. Factors include Indonesia's bio - diesel policies, potential export tax hikes, and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - Overseas: Fed Governor Milan says current rates are above the neutral level and restrictive. There's about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026. Initial jobless claims are at a historical low, but continuing claims are rising. The dollar index rises to 98.9, and metal prices adjust for two days, with precious metals relatively resilient and oil prices rebounding. - Domestic: January economic data and policies have limited impact on the market. The A - share market is in a structural game, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down at 4083 points, and a structural differentiation among broad - based indices. The trading volume drops slightly to 2.83 trillion, and over 3730 stocks close higher [2]. Precious Metals - During Thursday's trading, precious metal prices are mixed. COMEX gold futures rise 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments put pressure on gold and silver prices. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing from January 8 - 14 will bring selling pressure on precious metals, especially silver, increasing short - term adjustment pressure [4]. Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper futures continue to decline, and LME copper adjusts to around $12,700. The domestic spot market is quiet, and the LME inventory drops to 141,000 tons while the COMEX inventory rises to 515,000 tons. The market expects about two rate cuts in 2026. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the plant's operation capacity is only 30% of normal. After reaching a high, copper prices are under short - term pressure from profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend [5][6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum futures close at 23,765 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. LME aluminum closes at $3088.5 per ton, up 0.16%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, and due to high prices and the off - season, terminal demand is suppressed. With the outflow of funds, the market is dominated by fundamentals, and aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment [7][8]. Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures close at 2863 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The spot - futures price difference is large, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The increase in futures prices may lead to more imports and delay domestic production cuts. Alumina prices are expected to adjust following the overall market [9][10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures close at 22,585 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and prices follow the trend of aluminum. With market enthusiasm cooling and long - position profit - taking, cast aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, Shanghai zinc futures continue to adjust. As zinc ingots arrive, market supply increases, but downstream consumption is poor in the off - season. The social inventory rises slightly. The market is cautious before the non - farm data, and zinc prices are expected to adjust in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, Shanghai lead futures decline. After the environmental control in Anhui is lifted, some recycled lead smelters resume production, but the supply increase is limited. The social inventory rises slightly but remains below 20,000 tons. With weak consumption in the off - season, lead prices are expected to be weak due to the outflow of funds [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, Shanghai tin futures adjust. Before the release of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is nervous, and some funds take profits. The fundamentals change little, with slow recovery of tin mines and uncertain production in major producing countries. Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon futures slightly rebound. The supply side shows a marginal contraction, and the demand side is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The anti - involution policy falls short of expectations, and industrial silicon prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase [16][17]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Thursday, steel futures decline. The supply of five major steel products increases slightly, and the total inventory rises. The consumption of building materials drops significantly, and the market is expected to return to a volatile mode. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures adjust. The supply is abundant as overseas miners increase shipments at the year - end, and port inventories accumulate. Demand is weak with low blast furnace operating rates. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18][19][20]. Double - Coking - On Thursday, double - coking futures rise and then fall. Mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have not received official notices of capacity reduction. With increased domestic coal production and high import inventories, and high inventory pressure in the downstream off - season, the price increase space is limited. Prices are mainly driven by short - term market sentiment [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal 05 contract closes down 0.32% at 2782 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 05 contract closes down 1.71% at 2358 yuan/ton. Brazil's January soybean export is expected to reach 2.4 million tons. The US soybean export sales decline. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations and good weather in South America, rapeseed meal drops, and soybean meal is expected to continue to fluctuate [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil 05 contract closes up 1.13% at 8612 yuan/ton. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil biodiesel consumption increases by 7.6%, and it plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year. There are also plans to increase export taxes. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakens, and palm oil is expected to trade in a range [24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in a narrow range. Currently, the economic expectation difference favors the RMB, the Sino-US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, with the weakening of the US dollar and the USD/RMB exchange rate falling below 7.0, the exchange rate will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to this week's non - farm employment data. If employment continues to cool down, the stronger RMB pattern is expected to continue, and the 6.95 level will be repeatedly tested [31][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - Price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/RMB option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end [4] - The negative adjustment range of the counter - cyclical factor has significantly narrowed, and the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has widened [8] 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The central bank's key work in 2026 includes flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and continuing to optimize the "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" mechanism arrangements [27] 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro - Economy - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on December 31 was 872.8 billion (previous value: 801.5 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion, a decrease of 65.6 billion. The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [15] - The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the 11 - month CPI increase was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The economic expectation has been revised upwards. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [17] - The Chinese economy has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between the fundamentals and sentiment has widened [21] 3.2.2 Core Charts - In the US, employment authority has declined, inflation in November supported subsequent interest rate cuts, and the economic expectation has been revised upwards [17] 3.2.3 Economic - In the US in December, imports, new orders, and inventory made negative contributions, while output and prices made positive contributions [18] 3.2.4 Macro - Economy (China) - China's manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, rising 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and rising to the expansion range for the first time since April, indicating an improvement in manufacturing production and operation activities. Production and demand have rebounded simultaneously, and domestic demand is stronger than external demand [26] 3.2.5 Overall View - The RMB exchange rate will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to this week's non - farm employment data. If employment continues to cool down, the stronger RMB pattern is expected to continue [31] 3.2.6 Macro - Economy (2026 Scenario Deduction) - Throughout 2026, there will be multiple important time points related to policy, inventory cycles, etc., including Fed meetings, government work reports, and US mid - term elections, which will have an impact on the economic and policy environment [34]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月8日｜晨星在2026年第一季度展望报告中指出，受合理的估值支撑，亚洲股市在2026年有望延 续涨势。分析师表示，尽管可能会出现偶尔的回调，但出现持续性调整的可能性似乎不大。全球对人工 智能的支出仍是科技行业盈利的核心驱动力，且AI受益股的估值普遍仍具吸引力。晨星预计美联储将 下调联邦基金利率，从而带动除日本以外的亚洲地区利率下降。日本则可能迎来渐进式的加息。报告补 充称，地缘政治局势仍是主要风险，市场可能会出现阵发性的波动。 ...