Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to geopolitical negotiation expectations and market closures, indicating short-term volatility and adjustment pressure [1][9]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $5042.31 per ounce, reaching a daily high before declining, with a low of $4965.63 and closing at $4993.60, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $76.68 and a decrease of $48.71, or 0.97% [3][11]. - The market anticipates continued downward pressure on gold prices, influenced by the recent recovery of the US dollar index [3][11]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the February New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index, with mixed market expectations [3][11]. - Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak on artificial intelligence and its impact on the job market, which may influence market sentiment [3][11]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding US-Iran negotiations and military movements, are contributing to uncertainty in gold demand [6][13]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations may also heighten geopolitical risk, potentially supporting gold prices [6][13]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook despite recent fluctuations, with support expected at the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [8][14]. - Weekly analysis shows initial support at the 5-week moving average of $4960, with further support at the 10-week moving average of $4720 [15]. - Daily charts suggest a potential return to the 30-day or 60-day moving average support levels, with resistance at the 5-day moving average [15][16]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading strategy includes monitoring support levels around $4925 or $4880 for gold, and resistance levels at $5000 or $5045 [16].

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the UK has risen to 5.2%, the highest level in nearly five years, leading traders to increase bets on further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] - The preferred wage indicator of the Bank of England, the regular pay growth in the private sector, has dropped to 3.4%, the lowest level in over five years [1] - The money market is currently fully pricing in two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.25% for the first time in this easing cycle [1] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month has increased from about 70% to nearly 80%, with the market considering a rate cut by April as a certainty [4] - Policymaker Sarah Breeden indicated that a further 25 basis point rate cut by the end of April is a "reasonable expectation," emphasizing that a looser labor market suggests that wage and price inflation pressures should be dissipating [4]

Group 1 - Eurozone government bond yields fell in early trading, following the trend of U.S. Treasury yields [1] - Analysts from Metzler, Leon Ferdinand Bost and Uwe Hohmann, noted that German bonds remain supported, with the 10-year yield clearly moving away from recent trading ranges [1] - The trend of slowing inflation and the market's digestion of interest rate cut expectations are expected to continue providing initial support [1] Group 2 - Factors that may influence the market on Tuesday include bond auctions in Germany and Finland, as well as the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index [1] - The 10-year German government bond yield decreased by 1.9 basis points to 2.735%, close to the 11-week low of 2.729% reached on Monday [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the mixed market reaction to the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5% and down from the previous 2.7% [1][2] - The CPI data revealed a significant slowdown in housing costs, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3%, providing relief to middle and low-income households [4] - Energy prices also saw a notable decline, with a month-on-month drop of 1.5%, including a 3.2% decrease in gasoline prices, which is seen as a positive development for the Federal Reserve [4] Group 2 - The bond market reacted immediately to the CPI data, with expectations for a rate cut in June rising from 49.9% to 83%, and some traders even anticipating three rate cuts within the year [5] - Despite the positive CPI data, concerns remain about the core CPI, which increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, particularly due to rising prices in services like airfare and personal care [4][5] - The divergence in market reactions is attributed to the fact that while lower interest rates are beneficial for tech companies, concerns about economic slowdown and profit growth persist, leading to declines in major tech stocks [6][7] Group 3 - Ordinary consumers may struggle to feel the impact of the reported inflation decrease, as they focus on absolute price levels rather than the rate of increase, which has accumulated significant price hikes over the years [8][9] - The article highlights the gap between macroeconomic data and individual experiences, indicating that while the CPI of 2.4% is acceptable for policy adjustments, many households still face high costs, such as a 3% increase in housing and 4% for dining out [9]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below market expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations but higher than the 12-month average of 0.2%[3] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising and then falling, while gold prices increased[9] - After the CPI announcement, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12]

Inflation Data Overview - The January CPI in the U.S. recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The month-on-month CPI increase was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, which was below market expectations[2] - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 2.5%, consistent with market expectations, while month-on-month it increased by 0.3%[3] Sector Contributions - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI, with energy CPI year-on-year dropping from 2.1% to -0.3%, primarily due to a 7.5% decrease in gasoline prices[12] - Food CPI year-on-year increased by 2.9%, while month-on-month it decreased from 0.6% to 0.4%[3] - Core goods saw a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, down from 1.4%, largely influenced by a decline in used car prices[12] Market Implications - The overall inflation data suggests a moderate inflation environment, which may stabilize market expectations but does not provide a decisive basis for a shift in monetary policy[13] - Following the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased slightly, but the overall sentiment remains cautious regarding immediate policy changes[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are likely to be concentrated in the second half of the year, with a baseline expectation of 1-2 adjustments[5] Economic Balance - The current macroeconomic environment reflects a balance between cooling inflation and stable employment, which may support market stability[13] - Despite the easing inflation, core service inflation, particularly in housing, continues to exert upward pressure on price levels, indicating that inflation is more of a "marginal easing" rather than a rapid decline[17]

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the U.S. has decreased, with January CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may lead to further interest rate cuts [1][3][5] - The international precious metals market reacted positively, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.33% to $5063.80 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 2.10% to $77.27 per ounce, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1][16] - The employment market showed resilience with 130,000 new jobs added in January, surpassing market expectations, particularly in healthcare, social assistance, and construction sectors [3][5] Group 2 - The January CPI data indicates a cooling inflation environment driven by falling energy prices and a slowdown in housing costs, which has contributed to a more stable economic outlook [3][5][14] - The Federal Reserve's previous monetary policy measures are beginning to take effect, leading to a slowdown in money supply growth and helping to mitigate inflationary pressures [5][12] - The combination of cooling inflation and strong employment data is reshaping market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with implications for gold, silver, and stock markets [16][18] Group 3 - The current economic situation in the U.S. shows structural contradictions, but the overall trend indicates a recovery from the low growth experienced in early 2025 [2][5] - The market remains fragmented, with differing interests among various sectors, such as the desire for higher prices in nickel and lithium from Indonesia and Latin America [2][5] - The potential for further interest rate cuts may enhance the attractiveness of precious metals, while the stock market may experience mixed performance due to varying impacts on different sectors [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - State Street Corporation's stock price experienced a significant decline of 4.03% on February 12, 2026, driven by concerns over earnings during the reporting season, overall adjustments in the financial sector, technical selling pressure, and capital outflows [1] Recent Events - Over the past week, State Street's stock price showed considerable volatility, closing at $134.28 on February 9, dropping to $132.23 on February 10, slightly decreasing to $131.61 on February 11, and then sharply falling to $126.31 on February 12, before rebounding to $127.61 on February 13, resulting in a total price fluctuation of 9.44% with a trading volume of approximately $1.238 billion, indicating active capital speculation [2] Institutional Perspectives - In February 2026, 19 institutions provided ratings on State Street, with 58% recommending buy or hold, 32% suggesting hold, and 10% advising sell, indicating a slight cooling compared to previous periods. Earnings forecasts show several institutions predicting an earnings per share of $2.841 for Q4 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 8.28% year-over-year for Q1 2026, suggesting that medium to long-term growth expectations remain intact [3]

Group 1 - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a further slowdown in inflation growth, prompting the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path [1] - In January, the overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate recorded 2.4%, also below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase since May of the previous year [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.5%, matching expectations and indicating the slowest growth since March 2021 [1][3] Group 2 - The decline in inflation is primarily attributed to a significant drop in energy prices, with the energy index falling by 1.5% in January, and gasoline prices dropping by 3.2%, alleviating upward pressure on overall inflation data [3] - Housing costs remain a major contributor to inflation, increasing by 0.2% in January, but this increase is relatively mild compared to previous years, providing strong support for the inflation outlook [3] - Current CPI levels suggest that the Federal Reserve is nearing its 2% inflation target, although the market may not price in an earlier rate cut, a slight reduction in terminal rates is deemed reasonable based on current data [3]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market on February 13 saw more declines than increases, with the main contract for the shipping index (European line) rising over 3% [1] - The main contracts for caustic soda, lithium carbonate, eggs, and soybean meal increased by over 2%, while the main contracts for tin, silver, and crude oil saw declines exceeding 4% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1642.81 points, down 36.48 points or 2.17% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Caustic soda continued its rebound, with the main contract closing up 2.91%, driven by supply tightness and sellers' reluctance to sell [2] - Concerns over transportation restrictions during the holiday boosted pre-holiday purchasing of caustic soda, while the decline in liquid chlorine prices supported the market [2] - The egg main contract rose 2.20%, reaching a two-month high, driven by expectations of capacity reduction in the egg production industry [3] Group 3 - The metal market generally declined, with tin and silver experiencing the largest drops of 7.05% and 5.52% respectively, influenced by weak market sentiment and profit-taking by traders [4] - The fluctuations in basic metals were primarily driven by market emotions, with concerns over AI and macroeconomic data impacting market confidence [4] - Geopolitical risk easing expectations have also contributed to the weakening support for precious metals in the short term [5]