Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, marking the third consecutive pause since January and March [2] - The Fed noted that while the unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is strong, inflation is still at a relatively high level, indicating increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that significant tariff increases by the U.S. government could lead to rising inflation, slowing economic growth, and increasing unemployment, potentially delaying the achievement of the Fed's goals until next year [2][3] Group 2 - Powell stated that tariffs might have a short-term impact on inflation but could also lead to more persistent effects, emphasizing the appropriateness of the current policy stance and the need for patience [3] - He dismissed the idea of preemptive rate cuts before achieving inflation targets, indicating that the current situation does not warrant such actions until more data is available [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase of 177,000 in non-farm payrolls for April, with an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, while the first quarter GDP contracted by 0.3% year-on-year due to increased imports to avoid tariffs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising interest in gold and Bitcoin as potential "new safe-haven assets" amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, prompting investors to consider which asset may be more favorable for risk management [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Market Reactions - The expectation of interest rate cuts has triggered a chain reaction in global capital markets, with a consensus forming around the logic of "preventive rate cuts" due to various instability factors [3]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments consuming a historically high proportion of fiscal revenue, leading to concerns about long-term inflation despite short-term relief from rate cuts [4]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds has inverted, with the 10-year bond yield dropping below 4%, prompting a shift of funds from dollar assets to safe-haven assets like gold and yen [4]. Group 2: Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset - Gold has demonstrated resilience during market turmoil, with COMEX gold prices reaching a historical high of over $2,500 per ounce in March 2025, and currently trading at $3,393.4 per ounce [4][6]. - The demand for gold is supported by its historical role as a value store during crises, with a notable increase in gold ETF holdings during the 2024 Israel-Palestine conflict [6]. - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with a net purchase of 1,136 tons in 2024, and China has been increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [6]. Group 3: Bitcoin's Position and Challenges - Bitcoin has shown a dual nature in 2025, being included in some institutional portfolios while still facing regulatory scrutiny and volatility [11]. - Despite a temporary price surge due to a halving event in April 2024, Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets remains high, as evidenced by an 18% drop during the 2024 U.S. stock market crash [12]. - Bitcoin's market capitalization is significantly lower than gold's, at $1.2 trillion compared to gold's over $13 trillion, limiting its capacity to absorb large-scale safe-haven investments [14]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic of both assets rather than chasing trends, suggesting that gold serves as a "ballast" for systemic risk, while Bitcoin is viewed as an "experiment" with high volatility and regulatory uncertainties [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada discussed the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut during its April meeting but ultimately decided to maintain the current rate [1] Group 1 - Some officials believe that in times of uncertainty, a rate cut could be a preventive measure [1] - The central bank's policy aims to support the economy while continuously monitoring price levels [1] - Certain officials stated that the central bank has flexibility in using rate cuts to support growth [1] - Members agreed that forward guidance does not need to be as robust as in the past [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of President Trump's statements on the Federal Reserve and the subsequent fluctuations in the currency market, particularly the depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On April 22, the Japanese yen experienced a sharp decline against the US dollar, dropping to the mid-143 yen range per dollar, a decrease of nearly 3 yen compared to the previous day [1]. - The dollar was heavily repurchased following Trump's assurance that he "has no plans to fire" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleviating market concerns about the independence of the central bank [1]. - The dollar to yen exchange rate fell to 139.80 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level since September 2024, indicating a significant appreciation of the yen [1]. Group 2: Trump's Position on Interest Rates - Trump expressed a desire for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive stance on lowering policy interest rates, maintaining his call for rate cuts to support the economy [2]. - His previous criticisms of the Federal Reserve included suggestions to dismiss Powell, which raised concerns about the central bank's independence [1].

美国总统特朗普（左）和美联储主席鲍威尔(Reuters) 道琼斯工业平均指数一度下跌1300点以上，美元触及近三年来最低点，美国长期国债收益率 也上升（债券价格下跌）。"毫无疑问，美国总统破坏美联储独立性的可能性正在加剧损害国 内外投资者对美国资产信任这一隐忧"…… 美国总统特朗普加强了对美联储（FRB）的批评，在4月21日的美国股票市场，道琼斯工 业平均指数一度下跌1300点以上，美元触及近三年来最低点，美国长期国债收益率也上升 （债券价格下跌）。动摇央行独立性的事态伤害了投资者对美国的信心，再次引发了股债 汇"三杀"。 标普500成分股全面下跌 道琼斯指数比上周末下跌971点（2.5%），以3万8170点收盘。接近该指数8日创出的近期 最低点（3万7645点）。特朗普9日针对对等关税的提高宣布暂停一部分，因警戒感缓解而一 度出现回购美国股票的动向，但目前再次被抛售压制。 特朗普此前一直指责鲍威尔的货币政策选择是"政治性的"，4月17日进一步表示"应该尽快解 雇"。美国国家经济委员会（NEC）主任哈塞特也针对是否解雇鲍威尔对记者们表示，"总统及 其团队正在研究"。 特朗普表示"损害美国资产的信誉" 中央银行 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[5] - The pace of balance sheet reduction (QT Taper) will slow from $25 billion to $5 billion per month starting April 1, while MBS reduction remains at $35 billion per month[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%[5] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 was revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%, with core PCE inflation rising from 2.5% to 2.8% due to tariff impacts[5] - The Fed's approach has shifted from preemptive rate cuts to a data-dependent strategy, indicating potential delays in response to economic downturns[11] - Current economic indicators, such as a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, suggest that the economy remains in reasonable condition despite inflation concerns[10] Global Economic Context - The U.S. liquidity situation is tight, with the Fed's total assets reduced to $6.7 trillion, returning to pre-pandemic levels[7] - China's economic challenges are characterized by deflation rather than inflation, with net exports contributing 30% to GDP in 2024, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis[12] - The need for proactive monetary policy adjustments in China is emphasized, particularly in light of potential U.S. economic downturns and tariff impacts[13]