Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market has experienced a significant reshuffling, driven by a notable recovery in market risk appetite, as the US dollar continues its weak performance in 2025, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [1][2]. Group 1: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index closed at 97.04 on July 4, 2025, with a decline of 0.08%, remaining at near historical lows [1]. - The labor market showed resilience with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added in June, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [1]. - Goldman Sachs now anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, earlier than the previously expected December, adding pressure on the dollar [1]. Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - The euro traded around 1.17 against the dollar, closing at 1.1766 with a gain of 0.11%, supported by rising inflation in the Eurozone reaching the European Central Bank's target of 2% [2]. - The Chinese yuan showed relative stability, with the midpoint rate fluctuating within a reasonable range, reflecting the People's Bank of China's efforts to maintain adequate liquidity [2]. - The British pound remained relatively high despite some fluctuations, indicating cautious optimism regarding the UK economy [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment Changes - A significant easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, has reduced market risk aversion, impacting demand for traditional safe-haven currencies like the dollar and yen [2]. - The Japanese yen's performance is mixed, facing pressure from reduced safe-haven demand while also being supported by expectations of potential adjustments to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy [3]. - The return of a "risk-on" mode has led to a general rise in stock markets and positively influenced the foreign exchange market, with commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars showing notable performance [3].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The expiration of the tariff suspension period has cooled global risk appetite. The US tax - cut bill has been passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index. In China, the PMI data in June continued to rise, and domestic consumption policies and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and the appreciation of the RMB have also improved market sentiment [2]. - The overall view on asset classes is that the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with cautious long positions recommended; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious observation recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound from low - level fluctuations, with cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate strongly, with cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are expected to fluctuate, with cautious observation; precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious long positions [2]. Group 2: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as cross - border payment, gaming, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The recovery of China's June PMI data, strengthened domestic consumption policies, and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and RMB appreciation have also improved market sentiment. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward momentum has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals market oscillated last week. With the Middle - East cease - fire agreement, the focus shifted to the Russia - Ukraine war, and overall risk cooled in the short term. The approaching tariff deadline and the US - Vietnam agreement have increased optimistic tariff expectations. However, trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing. The better - than - expected non - farm data has cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the rebound of US bond yields has suppressed gold prices. The "Big Beautiful Act" will increase debt pressure, providing long - term support for gold. The tariff negotiation situation will be the main short - term influencing factor, and the volatility of gold is expected to rise in the short term [5]. Group 4: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, but trading volume remained low. Overseas, tariff policies need attention; domestically, the "anti - involution" policy is a factor. The news of Tangshan's production restrictions led to a rebound in the futures market, increasing speculative demand, but the off - season still affected terminal demand. On the supply side, the impact of production - restriction policies emerged, with a 1.44 - million - ton week - on - week decline in hot - metal production, while the output of finished products still increased slightly. Cost support remained strong. The steel market is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. Hot - metal production decreased by 1.44 million tons last week after two consecutive weeks of rebound, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. In terms of supply, the shipping volume decreased by 149 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 178 million tons. Although the second and third quarters are the peak shipping seasons, the shipping volume may decline after the end - of - quarter rush. The port inventory increased by 46.67 million tons. Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term due to macro factors but may decline in the medium term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday. The output of five major steel products increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded slightly, driving up the spot price of manganese ore. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.13% to 40.34%, and the daily output increased by 125 tons. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is being depleted slowly, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly in the short term. The silicon iron and silicon manganese markets are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Tariff news is uncertain. Although Trump threatened higher tariffs, it may be a negotiation strategy. The US is likely to impose at least a 10% tariff in the long run. The non - farm data was better than expected, but the private - sector employment slowed, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts cooled. In 2025, China's refined copper output continued to increase. From January to May, the copper output reached 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. After excluding sample expansion, the increase was still 6.7%. Despite high production, the copper inventory is in good condition, at a relatively low level [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fell slightly last Friday, affected by the overall decline in commodities. The weighted open interest of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 7654 lots. The LME inventory continued to increase. Domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods started to accumulate inventory, indicating the end of the de - stocking phase. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase, following the seasonal trend. The warehouse receipts increased significantly [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry has entered the off - season, with weak growth in manufacturing orders. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported the price of cast aluminum alloy from the cost side. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 7.13% for two consecutive weeks, although still at a relatively low level. The supply from Myanmar's Wa State is becoming more relaxed. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry, an important downstream of tin solder, is in the off - season, with a decrease in orders. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak, and the demand for tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals is stable. As the tin price rises, the downstream is hesitant to buy, and the inventory increased by 658 tons this week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be restricted in the medium term due to high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and declining demand [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, there is a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted the macro - sentiment, and the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated strongly. The price of lithium ore has rebounded significantly, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high due to reduced smelting losses. On the demand side, the output of power cells decreased in June, but the output of energy - storage cells increased significantly. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and batteries increased. The current price is close to the cost of mica - integrated production, providing strong cost support [11]. Industrial Silicon - There are short - term positive impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The start - up rate in the southwest increased last week, but the number of open furnaces in the north decreased, leading to a decline in weekly output. The "anti - involution" theme has boosted expectations [11]. Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, driven by the production cut of industrial silicon and the "anti - involution" theme. Due to high industry concentration, the price has greater elasticity. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continue to decline [12]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased daily production by 548,000 barrels, and with continued production growth in South America in the second half of the year, the downward trend of oil prices is more certain. Although the short - term spot price has not been clearly affected by over - supply, it may be supported in the short term, but refinery profits may be affected after the peak - season profit period, and purchasing willingness may decline [13]. Asphalt - The oil price is running at a low level, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the factory inventory is being depleted slowly. The basis has rebounded, and the social inventory has limited accumulation. As the demand approaches the peak season, the inventory depletion situation needs to be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the oil price in the short term [14]. PX - After the premium of crude oil was reversed, the strong trend of PX changed, and the overseas price weakened to $840. The PXN spread reached $250, and the industry profit declined significantly. The recovery of PTA's start - up rate will provide some support for PX, and the weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream [14]. PTA - The tightness of the spot market has been significantly relieved, the port inventory has increased, and the basis has declined. The downstream start - up rate has continued to decline to 90.2%. There is still room for the downstream start - up rate to decline, and with the downward trend of crude oil prices due to production increases, the PTA price still has some downward space [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory has been depleted to 540,000 tons. The overall start - up rate has declined, reducing supply pressure. However, the continuous decline of the downstream start - up rate will restrict further inventory depletion. The factory inventory is still being depleted steadily. It is expected to bottom out and follow the polyester sector to operate weakly in the short term [14]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a callback in the short - fiber price. It generally follows the polyester sector to fluctuate strongly. Terminal orders are still average, and the start - up rate continues to decline. The inventory of short - fiber remains high, and inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand in late July. With the weakening cost support, it will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern following the polyester sector in the medium term [15]. Methanol - There are maintenance activities in the inland area, and the arrival volume has decreased. Downstream olefins have maintenance plans. Before the implementation of maintenance, the spot price has some support. The international start - up rate has increased significantly, and the import expectation has risen again, and the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen. It has rebounded slightly under policy disturbances, but the upside is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [15]. PP - There are both maintenance and new - capacity releases, slightly relieving the supply pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to decline. The crude oil price fluctuates weakly, and the profit of oil - based production is fair. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the price is expected to decline further after the new - capacity release [16][17]. LLDPE - The number of device maintenance has increased, but the overall output is higher than the same period last year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to weaken. The balance sheet shows an expected inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. There is still room for cost - profit compression [18]. Group 7: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The pricing of the US soybean planting area is settled, and the weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The current hot and humid environment in the US soybean - growing areas is conducive to crop growth, and the probability of extreme drought is low. The market's expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the July USDA supply - demand report. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has supported the US soybean market. The export expectation has improved with positive trade news between China and the US, and the balance - sheet pressure has been further reduced. The CBOT soybean is expected to remain in a stable range [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - start - up rate of oil mills has maintained a stable supply of soybean meal, and the market sentiment is weak. The average monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from July to September in China may be around 1.1 million tons, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve within the 09 - contract period. The short - term stable trend of US soybeans provides some support. The positive news of China - US soybean trade has limited impact on the upward movement of futures prices. In the fourth quarter, the import premium of soybeans and the basis of domestic soybean meal are expected to remain weak. The upward space of soybean meal within the 09 - contract period is limited [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has extended the clean - fuel production tax credit to 2029, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil. In China, the rapeseed oil port inventory is high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The soybean oil inventory is accelerating its recovery, and the risk of inventory accumulation is increasing. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil markets lack independent market - moving factors in the short term and are affected by palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price remains inverted [20][21]. Palm Oil - OPEC+'s planned production increase in August may put pressure on the oil peak season, limiting the boost to international oils. In Malaysia, the production in June decreased by about 4% month - on - month, and the export may increase by 4% - 6% month - on - month. The inventory may shrink to less than 2 million tons. The positive export data in July has boosted market sentiment, but the long - term production increase and the pressure on oil prices are the main limiting factors. In China, the palm oil storage has increased, and the basis is weak. The import profit is in an inverted state, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [21]. Corn - The grassroots price of corn is firm, and the basis is strong. The auction of imported corn had a slightly high premium and good transactions, with limited impact on the production area. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and there are more shutdowns for maintenance during the off - season. Feed enterprises are using more wheat as a substitute for corn, putting pressure on the corn price in Shandong. In July, the import of corn and the substitution of wheat may affect the futures price negatively. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption in August - September, the postponed demand will return, and the corn price is likely to rise [22]. Pork - Leading enterprises have a low willingness to increase production and reduce weight for export. The supply in July is expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the profit expectation for the peak season in August - September is low. The cost of secondary fattening has increased significantly, and the willingness to restock is low. A large - scale concentrated supply of second - fattened pigs is expected in late July and late August, which will limit the upward space of pig prices. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price is expected to decline slightly in the next period [22].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：继续回落；白银：高位震荡 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银中性 价格区间：760-800元/克、8700-9100元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 | | | 国际黄金期现价格及价差 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合 | 期货收盘价(连 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦现货 | COMEX黄金连续 | | | 约):COMEX黄金 | 续):COMEX黄金 | | COMEX黄金主力 | COMEX黄金主力 | | 2025-07-04 | 3425.60 | 3332.50 | 3336.94 | -88.66 | -93.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the U.S. stock market and the commodity market, highlighting the strong performance of gold and other precious metals amid rising risk aversion and uncertainty in global economic policies, particularly due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal measures [1][11][14]. Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,271.90, reaching a high of $3,365.39 and a low of $3,247.11, closing at $3,335.00, an increase of $61.61 or 1.88% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index opened at 97.21, peaked at 97.42, and closed at 96.98, down 0.26% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6,719.49 points, closing at 6,866.84 points, up 2.14% and reaching a historical high [3]. - Silver prices rose by 2.60%, platinum by 3.81%, and palladium by 0.26% [3]. Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones index increased by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.62%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72%, indicating strong performance in the U.S. stock market [6][8]. - The article notes a significant divide in market sentiment, with both risk aversion and risk preference appearing to strengthen [6]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The demand for safe-haven assets has boosted the performance of precious metals, with overall gains exceeding 2% and silver prices reaching a 13-year high [7]. - In contrast, the commodity market, particularly basic metals, has shown weaker performance, indicating a lack of clear direction [9]. Economic and Policy Implications - The article highlights concerns from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regarding the impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies on global economic uncertainty and inflation risks [11]. - A UBS survey indicates a rising trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with 52% planning to do so in the next year, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [12]. - The IMF warns that Trump's fiscal policies could exacerbate the U.S. deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis [13]. Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current hesitation in the commodity market may not last long, with potential upward trends if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken [19]. - Observations of the NYMEX crude oil prices indicate a possible bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, supported by technical indicators [21][23]. - The article concludes that the macroeconomic environment remains complex, with potential implications for inflation and commodity demand [14][15].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.7%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.75%. Alibaba Health dropped nearly 5%, and AIA Group fell nearly 2% [1] - According to Zhongtai International, the technical bull market pattern for Hong Kong stocks is clear in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued strength in the market under supportive policies and improved US dollar liquidity in the second half of 2025 [1] - Earnings per share for the Hang Seng Index are projected to grow by 8.5% and 8.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities anticipates that the ongoing reform of the Hong Kong listing system will enhance the asset quality and liquidity of the market, with southbound capital likely to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks [2] - The market is expected to show a trend of "oscillation upwards + structural differentiation" in the second half of the year, driven by macro policies focusing on high-quality development, technological innovation, and domestic demand [2] - Annual net inflow of southbound funds is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, continuously improving liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The performance of treasury bonds is stronger than expected, remaining firm in an environment of rising risk appetite and A-shares, and strongly recovering losses at the end of the session. The main reason is the further loosening of funds. The current market sentiment is positive, but there are still disturbances in risk preference such as the implementation of the Sino-US agreement, and the sustainability of low capital interest rates also needs attention. Maintain the previous view of gradually taking profits at the upper edge of the oscillation range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, then oscillated downward and turned negative during the session. In the afternoon, they accelerated their decline and then rebounded. At the end of the session, long-term contracts closed slightly lower, while medium and short-term contracts closed higher. In terms of funds, there was a significant improvement. Today, 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, and the central bank conducted new operations of 5.72 billion yuan, with a net maturity of more than 452.1 billion yuan. However, the overnight xrepo rate dropped to 1.3% before the market, continuing to decline [1] Intraday News - According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration has cancelled some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software. According to the South China Morning Post, Siemens, Synopsys, and Cadence have all stated that the US government has cancelled export control measures on some Chinese chip design software this Thursday. Three global leading electronic design automation (EDA) software developers have all stated that their relevant products will no longer require special approval for export to China in the future [2] Market Judgment - The performance of treasury bonds is stronger than expected, remaining firm in an environment of rising risk appetite and A-shares, and strongly recovering losses at the end of the session. The main reason is the further loosening of funds. The current market sentiment is positive, but there are still disturbances in risk preference such as the implementation of the Sino-US agreement, and the sustainability of low capital interest rates also needs attention. Maintain the previous view of gradually taking profits at the upper edge of the oscillation range [3] Data Overview - **Contract Price and Position Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.506, unchanged from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 106.23, down 0.01 from the previous day; T2509 closed at 109.07, down 0.04 from the previous day; TL2509 closed at 121.07, down 0.09 from the previous day. In terms of positions, TS contract positions increased by 211 to 124,622 hands; TF contract positions increased by 747 to 194,961 hands; T contract positions increased by 1,264 to 243,215 hands; TL contract positions decreased by 636 to 145,598 hands [3][4] - **Basis and Trading Volume**: TS basis (CTD) was -0.0329, down 0.0115 from the previous day; TF basis (CTD) was -0.0295, down 0.021 from the previous day; T basis (CTD) was 0.1301, up 0.0704 from the previous day; TL basis (CTD) was 0.3617, down 0.028 from the previous day. In terms of trading volume, TS main contract trading volume was 24,843 hands, down 101 from the previous day; TF main contract trading volume was 51,486 hands, up 5,555 from the previous day; T main contract trading volume was 64,924 hands, up 6,969 from the previous day; TL main contract trading volume was 72,609 hands, up 3,741 from the previous day [4] - **Funding Rates and Trading Volume**: DR001 was 1.3597%, down 0.0076 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.5053%, down 0.0404 from the previous day; DR014 was 1.5693%, down 0.0501 from the previous day. In terms of trading volume, DR001 trading volume was 239.693147 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day; DR007 trading volume was 8.839759 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day; DR014 trading volume was 0.656805 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day [4]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation of improved national governance effectiveness is driving an increase in risk appetite among investors[4] - Despite anticipated GDP growth pressure, the market has already priced in the "high-low" trend and inflation concerns, suggesting that macro policy efficiency and international comparisons are undervalued[4] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to enhance the sense of gain for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and workers, potentially leading to a decrease in risk assessments[5] Group 2: Policy Implications - Recent policies, such as the "Guarantee for Payment to SMEs" regulation, aim to shorten payment terms, which may improve profitability quality for SMEs[6] - The focus of policies is shifting towards more elastic service consumption, reflecting a change in consumer demand from essential goods to optional services as income rises[7] - Local governments are expanding service consumption capabilities, indicating a policy shift towards enhancing consumer protection and infrastructure development[7] Group 3: Global Context - Global geopolitical instability, including fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, is leading investors to recognize the stability of China's national governance[9] - The certainty of China's governance is becoming a driving force for foreign investment, as it contrasts with the uncertainties in Western economies[9] - The market has already factored in pressures on GDP growth and inflation, but the certainty of governance and efforts to improve economic structure remain undervalued, presenting a fundamental reason to invest in China[10]

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年7月2日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易协议面临不确定性，避险情绪有所升温 【宏观】 海外方面，鲍威尔重申美联储在降息前需等待更多数据，未排除 7 月行 动可能性，表态略微偏鸽，但数据显示劳动力市场需求的增长好于预期，美元指 数下跌后反弹；此外，虽然美国总统称美国或与印度达成贸易协议，但威胁对日 本征收更高关税，市场权衡了美国贸易协议的不确定性和美国税收法案的情况， 全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，中国 6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上 升 0.2 个百分点，经济增长有所加快；政策方面，国内消费政策刺激加强，短期 有助于提振国内风险偏好；且短期国外市场回暖以及人民币汇率升值，国内市场 情绪回暖，国内风险有所升温。资产上：股指短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国 债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑色短期低位震荡反弹，短期谨慎 做多；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期震荡，谨慎观望；贵金属短 期高位震荡，谨慎做多。 冯冰 【股指】 在中船系、生物医药以及半导体等板块的支撑下，国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and changes in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a mixed outlook for gold prices and related investment vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 1, the gold ETF fund (159937) rose by 0.47% with a transaction volume of 238 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85% [1]. - International spot gold prices have rebounded above $3,300 per ounce, with the latest quote at $3,314.68 per ounce, marking a 0.38% increase [2]. - COMEX gold futures are quoted at $3,327 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The gold market has been under pressure due to easing geopolitical conflicts and rising U.S. stock markets, which have increased risk appetite among investors [3]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade agreements with multiple countries are expected to be completed by September 1, which may influence market sentiment [3]. - Speculation about the potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump could impact monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Analysts suggest a mixed to bullish long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term technical weaknesses and market adjustments [5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [5]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation remains significant, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investments in gold ETFs [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].