Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year, and the government - sector's liabilities to around 12.5%. The bond market will not enter a trending bear market, and yields are expected to oscillate at low levels. Risk preference repair is basically in place, and future risk preference will oscillate within a range with earnings. The recommended asset - allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value stocks. In the de - leveraging cycle, the dividend - type stocks in the A + H market are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [3][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In August 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.9%, down from 9.1% previously, and is expected to drop to around 8.7% in September. The government's liability growth rate was 15.0% at the end of August, and is expected to decline to around 14.5% in September. The central bank aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs. The money market tightened marginally last week, and there is a higher probability of a temporary relaxation in October [3][4]. - **Asset Side**: The physical volume data in August was weaker than in July. The annual nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it needs to be further observed whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [5]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Overall Performance**: Last week, the money market tightened marginally, and the stock - bond market was generally stable, with value stocks slightly outperforming. The ten - year bond yield rose 1 basis point to 1.88%, and the one - year bond yield remained stable at 1.39%. The wide - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.66pct last week and - 8.04pct since July [7]. - **Risk Preference and Asset Allocation**: Risk preference repair is basically in place, and future risk preference will oscillate within a range with earnings. The recommended asset - allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value stocks. In the next two weeks, the recommended allocation is the SSE 50 index (60% position), the CSI 1000 index (20% position), and the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position) [9][10]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. The sectors with the largest increases were power equipment, non - ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, and media, while the sectors with the largest declines were social services, comprehensive, commercial retail, light manufacturing, and textile and apparel [33]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of September 26, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, computers, machinery, and automobiles, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel. The industries with the largest increase in crowding were power equipment, electronics, non - ferrous metals, computers, and media [34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, the PE (TTM) of power equipment, non - ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, and media increased the most, while that of social services, comprehensive, commercial retail, light manufacturing, and textile and apparel increased the least. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banking, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and consumer electronics [39][40]. - **Industry Prosperity**: External demand generally rebounded, with the global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.7 to 50.9 in August. Domestic demand showed mixed signals, with second - hand housing prices falling and some quantity indicators rising and falling. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries increased from May to August and declined slightly in September [44]. - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the fourth week of September, most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 26, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.21 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [11].

Report Title - Local Boom in Convertible Bond Gold Mining (1) [2] Report Date and Analysts - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analysts: Luo Yunfeng (SAC No.: S1050524060001), Yang Feiran (SAC No.: S1050524070001) [3] Core Views - The core driving force of the market in this round has been the improvement of risk appetite, which is an endogenous variable of profitability. Since September, considering the decline in equity trading volume, the narrowing gap between the growth and value of equities, and the increase in the proportion of the same - direction movement of stocks and bonds, it is believed that the repair of risk appetite is basically in place. In the future, risk appetite will fluctuate within a range along with profitability, with the upper and lower limits corresponding to the levels in early January (the week of January 6) and early September (the week of September 8) respectively. On September 25, 2025, it approached the lowest level in recent years on October 12, 2024 [4]. - The recent shift of the market from "banks + micro - cap stocks" to technology has a profit foundation, that is, the overall economy is bottoming out but there are local upturns. The private - sector debt growth rate is used as a proxy variable for profitability, and its downward bottom appeared in October 2024 and has not reached a new low as of July 2025 [4]. - The long - term cycle of convertible bonds is synchronized with equities. The periodic recovery of convertible bond valuations provides signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. Therefore, short - term fluctuations may be leading and amplifying signals of equities. Recently, although convertible bond valuations have been actively adjusted, they are still at a relatively high level. After the holiday, attention should be paid to locally booming industries and performance - realizing targets [6]. 01 Risk Appetite Will Follow Profitability in Range - bound Fluctuations - The repair of risk appetite in this round may be basically in place. The highest point of risk appetite since data became available was in 2007, and the lowest point was on April 7, 2025. Excluding the impact of event - driven factors, the lowest point was in January 2025. The private - sector debt growth rate, as a proxy variable for profitability, reached its bottom in October 2024 and has not set a new low as of July 2025. The risk appetite may enter a range - bound fluctuation, and on September 25, 2025, it approached the lowest level in recent years on October 12, 2024 [8]. - The overall economic fundamentals are still in the bottom - grinding stage. In the second quarter, the real GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. Investment has been sluggish due to the real estate sector, and infrastructure investment has declined at an accelerating pace since mid - year. Consumption has been affected by the high - then - low national subsidies at the beginning of the year, and the CPI has been in a slump. Industrial product prices have shown a trend of price increases with volume contraction. From the perspective of Wind All - A earnings data, the overall economic fundamentals are still bottoming out [11][14]. 02 Fundamental Local Boom Corresponds to the Double - Innovation Market - In terms of revenue, the improvement of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the ChiNext Index is leading, while the Micro - cap and Dividend Indexes have the most obvious decline. In 2025Q2, the revenue growth rate of the ChiNext Index increased by 5 percentage points to 9.3%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ended its relative disadvantage for three consecutive quarters. The revenue of the Micro - cap and Dividend Indexes decreased by 7.8% and 5.9% respectively in 2025Q2 [18]. - In terms of gross profit margin, compared with 2024Q2, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the SSE 50 had the most significant increase in gross profit margin in 2025Q2, up 2.5 and 2.0 percentage points respectively. The ChiNext Index had a gross profit margin of 24.5% in 2025Q2, still the highest among broad - based indexes [21]. - Most indexes' year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025Q2 declined quarter - on - quarter. The Science and Technology Innovation Board had a significant improvement in net profit in 2025Q2, and the ChiNext Index continued to lead other broad - based indexes in terms of growth rate [24]. - In terms of specific industries, in 2025Q2, the industries with the highest year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders were gaming (104%), steel (82%), precious metals (76%), etc. The industries with the largest decline were real estate (- 132%), coal (- 37%), etc. The industries with positive growth in 2025Q2 and an improvement compared with 2025Q1 were banks, insurance, etc. Combining the historical percentile of valuation, the industries with high performance growth and still some room for valuation are power equipment, new energy, gaming, and consumer electronics [29][30] 03 Convertible Bonds Follow Equities to Explore Locally Booming Sectors - The long - term cycle of convertible bonds is synchronized with equities. The short - term periodic recovery of convertible bond valuations provides signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. Short - term fluctuations may be leading and amplifying signals of equities. Recently, although convertible bond valuations have been actively adjusted, they are still at a relatively high level. After the holiday, attention should be paid to locally booming industries and performance - realizing targets. Convertible bond targets with good performance in 2025Q2 are concentrated in power equipment, electronics, etc. [45] - The All - A Index can basically explain most of the long - term fluctuations of convertible bonds. The regression results show that the performance of convertible bonds mainly follows the equity market, and the equity market trend can explain 91.4% of the price fluctuations of the convertible bond market. The convertible bond market follows equities in this round, and is less affected by the bond market [48][59] - The short - term fluctuations of convertible bond valuations provide signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. From June 23 to August 25, the active increase in convertible bond valuations was greater than that of the underlying stocks. Therefore, the convertible bond market entered the downward - oscillation cycle earlier than the equity market on August 27 and had a larger decline due to the return of valuations [61] - ETF share fluctuations have a relatively small impact on the price fluctuations of underlying convertible bond targets. Since September, the growth rate of convertible bond ETF shares has decreased significantly, which may mainly reflect sentiment and valuation [64] - Convertible bonds with good profitability have larger increases and are more resistant to declines. From June 23 to August 25, convertible bonds followed the underlying stocks in a sharp rise, with the growth sector leading. Some convertible bonds in individual sectors outperformed the underlying stocks, mainly concentrated in industries and targets with excellent performance. From August 25 to September 23, convertible bonds led the All - A Index in decline, and their subsequent performance was weaker than that of equities, mainly due to the periodicity of convertible bond valuation fluctuations [70][77] - The new energy sector under the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 may be one of the most certain trading directions in the next five years. The new energy vehicle penetration rate continues to increase, and the energy storage market has an important turning point. The report focuses on Keli Convertible Bonds and Hongfa Convertible Bonds in the new energy field [83] - Keli Convertible Bonds: Kodal Precision is the global leader in precision structural parts. The company's performance has been growing steadily. The convertible bond has a relatively large issuance scale, and the current price is around 140 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 18.6%. It is an offensive convertible bond with high - quality underlying stocks and has no risk of forced redemption for the time being [87][89][92] - Hongfa Convertible Bonds: Hongfa Co., Ltd. is the world's largest relay manufacturer. The company's performance has been growing steadily. The convertible bond has a large issuance scale, and the current price is around 134 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 18.2%. The downward - adjustment clause is relatively loose [95][98][101]

在美国金融条件已然宽松的背景下，美联储依然选择降息，向市场发出积极信号。 鲍威尔的重心转移：就业优先，容忍更高通胀 Shah分析认为，鲍威尔的最新表态确认了美联储对通胀一定程度的容忍，即"3%是新的2%"，这正日益 成为全球央行官员的新常态。 Citadel Securities宏观策略师Nohshad Shah近日发文称，美联储的鸽派转向已经为风险资产在今年剩余时 间内的表现"亮起绿灯"，在投资者看来，"提高风险偏好"是当前唯一的结论。 上周，美联储启动了其所谓的"预防式降息"，将利率下调了25个基点，并确认了今年余下时间将维持鸽 派政策倾向。根据最新的经济预测摘要（SEP），政策制定者对2025年利率预测的中位数为三次降息， 高于6月预测的两次，这意味着市场应将10月和12月再次降息25个基点视为基本情景。 鲍威尔在会后声明和新闻发布会上证实，"就业面临的下行风险已经上升"。对此，Nohshad Shah指出， 鲍威尔的关注重心已明确转向劳动力市场的疲软，这带动了委员会核心成员的立场转变。 文章指出，这一系列行动和表态的直接影响是，4月关税冲击后持续放宽的金融条件将变得"更加宽 松"，在宏观经济基本面稳健 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell mentioned balancing inflation concerns and a weakening job market in future interest - rate decisions, with the US dollar index steady and global risk appetite cooling. Domestically, economic data such as consumption, investment, and industrial added - value in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, and the central bank adhered to an independent monetary policy. The market's short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; for commodities, black metals, energy chemicals, and glass are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; non - ferrous metals and precious metals are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious long - position approach [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision and the weakening job market impact the global situation. Domestically, economic data shows a slowdown in domestic demand, and the central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy. The short - term upward macro - drive weakens, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Stock indices and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position for stock indices and a cautious wait - and - see for treasury bonds [2]. 3.2 Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as tourism, hotels, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Economic data shows a slowdown in domestic demand, and the central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy. The short - term upward macro - drive weakens, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets slightly corrected on Tuesday, with low trading volume. Policy expectations were disappointed, and market risk - aversion increased. Demand weakened, but there were differences among varieties. Supply is regulated by policies. The short - term steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range [4]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures and spot prices declined. Steel mills continued to replenish stocks before the National Day, and iron ore production increased. Global iron ore shipments decreased, while arrivals increased. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a negative feedback risk after November [4][5]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices slightly declined. The price of silicon iron is supported by electricity costs, and the production reduction is limited. The futures prices of both are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - The manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and the UK were weaker than expected, and the previous recovery of the global manufacturing PMI was not sustainable. Copper concentrate production is high, and future demand may decline. The upside space is limited [7]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the aluminum price continued to fall, and the position decreased. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, non - ferrous metals returned to fundamental trading. The current aluminum fundamentals are weak, with slow inventory reduction and low - intensity demand recovery [7]. 3.4.3 Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. It is in the off - season of demand, and orders are growing slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [8]. 3.4.4 Tin - The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi is low, mainly affected by maintenance and tight ore supply, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, but the upside is under pressure [8]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, the lithium carbonate futures price declined. The current supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [9]. 3.4.6 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon futures price declined. There is no obvious positive factor, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. 3.4.7 Polysilicon - On Tuesday, the polysilicon futures price declined. Spot prices have increased, and there are still strong policy expectations. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support of spot prices [10]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - The market is concerned about the increasing threat to Russian oil supply, and oil prices rebounded slightly. However, Iraq may resume exports, so the short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate [11]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The rebound of oil prices drove asphalt prices up, but the peak - season demand is over, and there is still excess pressure. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the extent of following the increase of oil prices [11][12]. 3.5.3 PX - The PX futures price fluctuates with the polyester sector, with support from crude oil costs. The PXN spread has decreased, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with some support below [12]. 3.5.4 PTA - The stimulus of PTA production - cut rumors has ended, and there is no substantial news. Downstream demand has declined, and inventory has increased. Although there are cost supports, the futures price may decline under the influence of short - term capital [12]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price remains in a low - level fluctuation. Port inventory has changed little, and downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - Short - fiber prices have declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, but the increase is limited. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium term [13]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuates weakly. In the short term, the supply is still in excess, but in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the impact of imports in October, and there may be opportunities to go long [14]. 3.5.8 PP - The PP market price has declined. Although the downstream demand has improved, the supply is still abundant. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [14]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The LLDPE market price has declined. Supply has increased, and demand is less than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but there is some support from oil prices [15][16]. 3.5.10 Urea - The urea market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory differentiation. The short - term pressure is high, and the price is expected to be weak [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Corn - In the Northeast, the new - season corn is being harvested smoothly, with high opening prices. In North China, the price of new corn has declined, and the price of old corn is firm. In the sales area, the price is stable, and there is support from feed mills' replenishment. The market generally expects the price to decline during the peak - harvest period from mid - October to November [18]. 3.6.2 US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean price increased slightly. Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and other products has a negative impact, but there is some support from the downgrade of US soybean crop ratings and increased China - US contacts [18]. 3.6.3 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Argentina's cancellation of export taxes has limited impact on the domestic market. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and soybean meal should not be overly shorted [18]. 3.6.4 Oils - The soybean oil market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The rapeseed oil market is cautious due to Sino - Canadian trade relations, and inventory is decreasing. The palm oil market has improved export demand and decreased production, with positive data supporting the price [18]. 3.6.5 Pigs - Pig prices have reached a new low this year, and breeding profits have shrunk. The supply of pigs is sufficient, and demand is stable. The price is expected to stabilize in the second half of the month, with limited rebound space [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bond market sentiment remains under pressure. It is crucial to verify that the rebound high of long - term interest rates is gradually decreasing. If 1.8% is confirmed as the relatively high level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, the bond - bull logic can be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk appetite is mainly reflected in the term spread premium, which may reach 50 - 60BP in extreme cases. In September 2025, the bond market is more likely to experience a weak recovery rather than a seasonal adjustment [2][9]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds is difficult to return to extremely low levels but is unlikely to expand significantly, and there is no need to refer to the historical range above 40BP before 2023 [3][14]. - The short - term recovery of the bond market may be driven by monetary easing. If a 10BP policy rate cut is implemented, the central level of funds and short - term varieties will decline by more than 10BP. The performance of long - term bonds is more affected by expected pricing, and the resistance at 1.7% - 1.75% of the 10 - year Treasury bond may be significant [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market Situation in September 2025 - The bond market has not significantly recovered, long - term bond interest rates are oscillating, and the term spread is expanding. After the public offering fee new rule and the central bank bond - buying expectation emerged, the long - term interest rate rebounded after breaking through 1.8% and then maintained an oscillating state. The term spread has not stopped recovering due to the unclear impact of the public offering fee new rule on the liability side [3][9]. 3.2 Analysis of Ultra - Long Bond Term Spread - **Difficulty in Returning to Low Levels and Limited Expansion**: The ultra - long bond term spread is closely related to risk appetite, reflecting the marginal change in the household debt cycle. As the household sector's leverage ratio has entered the stable - leverage stage and the real - estate cycle has not ended, the improvement of household risk appetite is limited, so the term spread is difficult to return to the high - level range before extreme compression [14][15]. - **Uncertainty from Supply and Demand**: Although the supply of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds has increased (as of mid - September, the stock of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds over 10 years has reached 27.3 trillion yuan, and the proportion has increased from 7% in Q1 2019 to 23%), it is difficult to determine the term spread trend from the supply side alone because the demand elasticity has a greater and unpredictable impact. Historically, the term spread has compressed even when the supply increased. In the short term, the completion of ultra - long bond issuance in Q4 may reduce the spread expansion pressure [17]. 3.3 Short - Term Bond Market Recovery Drivers - The short - term recovery of the bond market may be driven by monetary easing. A 10BP policy rate cut will lead to a central decline of more than 10BP in the funds and short - term varieties. The 10 - year Treasury bond has heavy chips around 1.7% - 1.75%, and the resistance to unwinding may be obvious [4][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil**: After geopolitical factors are digested, the oversupply expectation remains the dominant factor for oil prices. OPEC+ is increasing production, and non - OPEC+ supply is high. It is advisable to short at high prices [1]. - **Gold**: The US government shutdown negotiation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing a rebound in gold. The Fed's independence is controversial, adding uncertainty. Gold is long - term bullish but requires further short - term observation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has slightly recovered, but the impact of over - production inspections persists. With pre - holiday stockpiling and futures - spot resonance, coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas shipments have returned to normal, and supply is stable. Demand is supported in the short term, and there is an expectation of restocking, which strongly supports ore prices [4]. - **Rebar**: With a warm macro - environment, production is decreasing due to low profits. Demand is picking up, and the fundamentals are improving, providing strong support for the price [5]. - **Pig**: The market is currently oversupplied, but after continuous price drops, farmers' resistance is increasing. Short - term long positions can be attempted [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The increase in the reference price supports the futures price, but domestic supply is expected to be loose. It is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price has room for limited decline. It is advisable to restock at low prices before the holidays, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2970 - 3050 [7]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It should be treated with a neutral view [8]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamental contradiction is limited. With low inventory and some demand, the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is decreasing, and downstream demand is rising. The port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is adjusting, with high - level inventory decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is slowly improving. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The restart of 14 - day reverse repurchase has different impacts on the bond market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Silver**: The US infrastructure investment plan increases risk preference, and silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of September 19, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 418, the highest since July. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and non - OPEC+ supply is also high [1]. Metals - **Gold**: The US Senate Democrats blocked the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown and risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: As of a certain date, the inventory of 45 ports was 13,801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons. The daily dredging volume increased by 7.89 million tons [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%. Production decreased, and demand increased [5]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of September 19, the average slaughter weight was 123.51 kg, the weekly slaughter rate was 32.06%, and the breeding profit decreased [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia raised the October reference price, and the export volume from September 1 - 20 increased by 8.7% compared to the same period last month [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of September 19, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises were 9.42 days, an increase of 2.20% from September 12 [7]. Chemicals - **Coking Coal**: The daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.65 million tons, and the coking coal inventory was 790.34 million tons, a decrease of 3.39 million tons [3]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream tire enterprise inventory is high, limiting restocking enthusiasm [8]. - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 enterprises was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.5%. The factory and social inventories decreased [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 4.68%. The port inventory increased by 0.75 million tons [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The weekly output was 74.57 million tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [12]. - **Polypropylene**: The capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.29%. The commercial inventory decreased by 3.59 million tons [12]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, increasing the release of medium - and long - term liquidity [13]. - **Silver**: The US is considering a $550 billion infrastructure investment fund, which increases risk preference [13].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the A-share market and its recent performance, influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and domestic economic policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment Factors**: The recent market adjustment is attributed to two main factors: the Federal Reserve's lower-than-expected interest rate cut of 25 basis points instead of the anticipated 50 basis points, leading to investor disappointment, and concerns over the potential for a rebound in the US dollar due to short-term easing expectations [3][5]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Trends**: Despite a recent high near 3,900 points, the A-share market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation pattern before the National Day holiday, with a cautious optimism for future growth [2][7]. 3. **Liquidity and Policy Support**: There is an expectation of continued net inflows from foreign capital, financing, and newly issued funds, with potential for further monetary easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions by the end of September [4][13]. 4. **Historical Performance Insights**: Historical data indicates that after similar high-level oscillations, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to rise within a month, particularly in bullish market conditions [9][10]. 5. **Sector Focus**: The call emphasizes a focus on growth sectors, particularly technology, cyclical stocks, and core assets like consumer electronics and semiconductors, which are expected to perform well due to policy support and industry trends [4][17]. Additional Important Content 1. **Market Dynamics**: The current market sentiment is described as "overheated," with significant net inflows of 124.3 billion yuan in financing from September 5 to 11, but this has since moderated [6][14]. 2. **External Environment**: The domestic policy environment is seen as supportive, with expectations for stable growth policies to be emphasized in upcoming political meetings, alongside a positive shift in US-China relations [12]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: Short-term economic fundamentals are viewed as weak, with declining export growth and low consumer spending, but there is optimism for recovery due to upcoming holidays and consumption-boosting policies [16]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to pay attention to sectors that are likely to benefit from policy support and industry trends, including technology growth, cyclical products, and core assets, as well as emerging opportunities in new consumption and innovative sectors [17].

Core Insights - Small-cap stocks have finally joined the record rise of U.S. equities, ending a period of underperformance since the pandemic began [1] - The Russell 2000 index rose by 2.1% to 2453.36 points, marking its first close above the historical high since November 2021 [1] - This surge in small-cap stocks aligns with heightened risk appetite and market expectations of three potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1]

Core Insights - The global economic growth expectations have significantly improved according to the latest Bank of America global fund manager survey [1] - There is an increasing bet on substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has enhanced risk appetite among investors [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The cash holding ratio among global fund managers has remained low at 3.9% for three consecutive months, indicating a shift towards equities [1] - The net increase in stock allocation has reached the highest level in seven months, reflecting a growing confidence in the market [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Concerns over a global recession driven by trade wars have significantly decreased, with attention dropping from 29% in August to 12% [1] - The second wave of inflation has emerged as the primary tail risk for fund managers [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - 47% of fund managers anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates four times or more in the next year [1] - Among these, 30% expect four cuts, 17% expect two cuts, and 29% expect three cuts, indicating a notable increase in rate cut expectations compared to previous levels [1]