Group 1 - The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 153.9400, following a downward trend influenced by strong US employment data and risk appetite in the market [1] - The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting minutes from September indicate a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with policymakers weighing inflation dynamics and trade risks [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike, as the new Prime Minister, Kishida Fumio, is expected to implement aggressive fiscal spending plans [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index reached its highest level since May, supported by reduced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its 36th day, has created a data vacuum, leading to a murky economic outlook [2] - Economists warn that the longer the shutdown persists, the higher the risk of the fragile economy transitioning from bending to breaking [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY has faced strong resistance in the 154.40-154.45 range, which is now a key support level [3] - A breakthrough above this resistance could target the psychological level of 155.00, with potential follow-up buying paving the way to 155.60-155.65 [3] - Conversely, the 153.65 area may provide some support before a potential drop to the 153.00-152.95 range, with further declines targeting 152.55-152.50 and 152.00 [3]

Market Overview - In October, the investment agreements between Japan, South Korea, and the United States were finalized, leading to significant gains in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, which rose by 19.1% and 12.2% respectively[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a notable decline of 8.53% during the same period[3] Global Asset Flows - Global money market funds saw an inflow of approximately $1,290 billion in October, a decrease from $1,550 billion in September[19] - The U.S. equity market attracted $595.1 billion, while China and emerging markets received inflows of $180.6 billion and $241.6 billion respectively[19] China Market Dynamics - In October, China's equity market attracted $180.62 billion, accounting for 74.76% of the total inflow into emerging markets[19] - The inflow into China's fixed income market was $26.17 billion, representing 32.09% of the total emerging market inflow[19] Country Allocation Trends - Global funds' allocation to the Chinese stock market has rebounded to the historical 40th percentile, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from September[19] - The allocation to the U.S. stock market was 61.6%, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[19] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and there are risks associated with potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the divergence within the Fed has raised doubts about another rate cut this year, and risk aversion has led investors to seek the dollar as a safe - haven, causing the dollar index to strengthen. Large banks have warned of a potential stock market pullback, reflecting growing concerns about over - valuation, which has significantly cooled global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing sentiment declined in October, and economic growth slowed, dampening optimistic expectations. The strengthening dollar has weakened the RMB exchange rate in the short term, affecting domestic risk appetite. However, the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC has enhanced policy stimulus expectations, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and future attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as energy metals, precious metals, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market declined. With the decline in China's manufacturing sentiment in October and economic slowdown, along with the short - term weakening of the RMB due to the strong dollar, the short - term macro - upward drive has weakened. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC, policy stimulus expectations have increased. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. - **Commodity Sector**: - **Black Metals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. - **Precious Metals**: After a short - term high - level correction, they are expected to adjust in the short term while maintaining a long - term upward trend. It is recommended to observe in the short term and buy on dips in the long term [2][3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets oscillated and declined. With a lack of macro - drive, the market is mainly focused on fundamental logic. Although the apparent consumption of the five major steel products continued to rise last week, it is generally expected that the demand peak in the second half of the year has passed. Due to losses in some varieties, the steel production capacity release has weakened, and with more environmental protection restrictions, supply may contract further. The steel market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. With the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits and the upgrading of environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, and steel mill ore inventories also decreased. The global iron ore arrivals this week increased by 1.2298 million tons to 3.3141 million tons, and port inventories increased by 167,000 tons on Monday. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to fall further [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot price of silicon manganese declined slightly, while that of silicon iron remained flat, and the futures prices also declined slightly. The production of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese shows that the national capacity utilization rate is 42.99%, a slight decrease from last week, and the daily output increased by 45 tons. The prices of silicon iron in the main production areas are stable, and the raw material prices are also stable. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese futures are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI in October was lower than expected, and the US copper inventory has reached a historical high, restricting future import demand. There are concerns about the restart of a Panamanian copper mine. In China, the copper de - stocking is not as expected, and the social inventory is at a relatively high level. However, the shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine intensifies the global copper shortage, supporting the futures price, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum declined. The overall market sentiment cooled, and domestic commodities generally fell, which is negative for aluminum prices. The previous sharp rise deviated from fundamentals due to market speculation. With high domestic supply and imports, weakening demand, and difficulty in de - stocking, along with a significant increase in foreign aluminum inventories, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the price rises above 20,800 yuan/ton, short - selling can be considered [10]. - **Tin**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped significantly overnight due to renewed concerns about the AI bubble. The smelting start - up rate has rebounded significantly and is at a high level, and the supply of tin ore is expected to increase. The demand side is still weak, with the tin solder start - up rate at a low level and limited improvement in downstream orders. The high tin price has suppressed physical demand, but due to previous low inventory levels, some downstream enterprises have carried out small - scale replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. In the medium and short term, the price has support below but limited upside space, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The weighted contract reduced its position significantly. With rumors of a mine restart and a short - term macro - negative environment, it is recommended to hold a light position and wait patiently for the "emotional bottom" [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon declined. The weighted contract increased its position. The demand is relatively stable, and the social inventory has slightly increased at a high level. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of polysilicon declined. The weighted contract reduced its position. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The policy provides support for the spot price, but weak terminal demand restricts price increases. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and interval trading is recommended [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The dollar has reached a five - month high, pressuring crude oil prices. Although Russian seaborne crude oil exports have decreased significantly due to sanctions, some doubt the long - term effectiveness of the sanctions. In the short term, oil prices will face a divergence between short - and long - term trends, and the medium - term pressure remains high [14]. - **Asphalt**: With a slight decline in oil prices, the asphalt futures price dropped significantly, and the basis continued to narrow. There is a slight inventory accumulation pressure in social and factory warehouses, and the pressure will increase as the demand off - season approaches. Although the profit has increased slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the supply pressure has decreased temporarily, future crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and asphalt still has a large selling pressure [14]. - **PX**: As crude oil prices declined, the polyester sector was weak, and PX oscillated. With high PTA start - up rates, PX still has some demand support. The PXN spread has slightly adjusted, and PX remains in a tight supply situation. Short - term price changes are mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: PTA remained weak. Although downstream start - up rates have increased slightly and winter textile demand has increased, the long - awaited production cut agreement among leading manufacturers has not been achieved. With new device replacements, the overall supply remains high, and there is a great inventory accumulation pressure in November. The decline in oil prices also exerts pressure on PTA [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices dropped, and the port inventory has accumulated again. Although the downstream start - up rate is neutral in the short term, the shipping volume is low, and the arrivals are at a relatively high level. There is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November, and the downstream start - up rate may decline. Caution is required before entering the market [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillates in the short term but faces greater pressure in the future. Terminal orders are seasonally declining, and the start - up rate has decreased in some areas, with limited inventory accumulation. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [16]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is at a high level but is slightly decreasing without a significant increase in imports and stable MTO demand. Inland, due to increased device start - up rates and weakening demand, enterprise inventories have accumulated, and prices have weakened. In the short term, the market sentiment is bearish, but with the approaching winter gas restrictions, the supply contraction expectation will gradually emerge, and the downward space is expected to be limited, with the market likely to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [16]. - **PP**: In the PP market, supply growth continues to outpace demand recovery, and the industrial chain inventory is relatively high. However, demand has shown marginal improvement, and the recent rebound in crude oil prices supports the cost, limiting the downward space. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **LLDPE**: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure. With the release of new production capacity and the planned restart of previously shut - down devices, supply is increasing. Demand is expected to weaken after peaking in early November, and the weak crude oil price provides limited cost support. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [17]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply is becoming more abundant. With the recent price rebound, downstream replenishment has slowed down. Local agricultural demand is gradually ending, and industrial demand remains weak. The export is expected to stay at a low level due to unclear policies [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT January soybean contract declined. With the Sino - US economic and trade consultations reaching a phased consensus, the trade window for agricultural products may open, and US soybeans may strengthen. The USDA may increase the export forecast in subsequent reports, and if the yield per acre is further reduced, the cost - repair logic of US soybeans will be enhanced [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and oil mills are maintaining high - level crushing, resulting in sufficient soybean meal supply. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the cost of imported soybeans will increase, and the risk of future soybean shortages will decrease, which may lead to inventory accumulation of soybean meal and limit its upside potential. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. Attention should be paid to whether China cancels the 10% reciprocal tariff and opens the market - oriented import window [19]. - **Palm Oil**: After continuous declines, palm oil has entered a technically oversold stage, and the risk of short - selling is increasing. Although the unexpected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October has caused short - term adjustment pressure, the rising prices of international oilseeds and crude oil provide some support. As palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle, the seasonal inventory - reduction trend remains unchanged. The domestic spot basis is stable with a slight decline, and palm oil continues to operate weakly [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil continues to adjust weakly in a narrow range, with a supply - exceeding - demand situation. Supported by the rising cost of imported soybeans, it is relatively more resistant to decline compared to palm oil. Rapeseed oil inventory is still at a high level, but rapeseed inventory is running out. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - Canadian trade, the sentiment of traders to hold back supply and support prices is strong, and the basis continues to strengthen [19]. - **Corn**: The pressure of wet corn sales is gradually weakening, and the prices in production areas are stable, but the intention of traders to build inventories is still general. The situation of a bumper harvest and market pressure has gradually stabilized. The futures prices are running weakly recently, but the phased bottom - range market may provide effective support [20]. - **Hogs**: In late October, the overall slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig farms was adjusted, but there was no significant reduction in supply, and the average slaughter weight decreased. It is expected that the supply will continue to increase in November, and the pig - raising profit will remain in the red. Before the small peak of pickled meat consumption around the Winter Solstice in December, it is difficult for pig prices to rebound significantly [20].

Group 1 - The current market exhibits seemingly contradictory phenomena: weak economic data but a rebound in risk appetite and dividends, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [1] - Historical downturns with internal industry cycles have limited overall impact, but when combined with balance sheet contractions, the effects can be more severe and prolonged [1] - Recent targeted policies, including large-scale debt restructuring and fiscal measures to stabilize consumption and capital markets, have helped mitigate potential "balance sheet recession" risks [1] Group 2 - Investors recognize that the worst periods are being supported by policy measures, leading to a decrease in systemic risk and a recovery in risk appetite, indicating a new trend rather than a temporary rebound [2] - The appeal of dividend assets during economic downturns as safe havens is shifting, with a re-evaluation of stable high-dividend assets driven by both risk reduction and value reassessment [2] - Current policies aimed at economic recovery and cash flow stabilization enhance the sustainability of cash flows behind dividend-paying companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a decline following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, dropping 3.1% to below $108,000, before recovering slightly to trade around $111,315 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, but Powell cautioned against assuming further cuts in the future [3]. - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped from nearly 100% to about 60% [3]. - Powell's comments triggered risk-off sentiment in the market, impacting Bitcoin's performance despite some gains in tech stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's decline accelerated after the U.S.-China summit, although selling pressure eased quickly, indicating mixed market reactions [3]. - The overall cryptocurrency market remains bearish, with Bitcoin's decline for the week at 4%, reflecting uncertainty about liquidity conditions and risk appetite [4]. - Despite the bearish trend, there are signs of recovering optimism, as the long-to-short ratio for Bitcoin has risen above 2.0, and open interest increased from $34 billion to $35 billion, suggesting traders are increasing leveraged positions in anticipation of a rebound [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technically, the 4-hour and daily RSI readings remain in bearish territory, indicating that corrections may not be fully over [4]. - For Bitcoin to sustain a recovery, it must break through the resistance cluster formed by the 20, 50, and 100 EMA around $112,000, which could shift short-term sentiment to bullish [4]. - Conversely, if momentum weakens again, the next downside target would be last week's low of $106,600, while a successful rebound could see prices return to $116,000 or even $118,000 with increased buying support [4][5].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of spot gold experienced significant volatility, reaching a low of $3,886.51, the lowest level since October 6, due to optimistic sentiments surrounding US-China trade negotiations, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - On October 28, spot gold fell to a three-week low, dropping 0.73% to close at $3,952.71 per ounce, influenced by improved trade outlooks [1][4] - The recent progress in US-China trade talks, including a framework agreement on soybean purchases and a pause on rare earth export controls, has led to a decrease in gold prices as investors preferred to sell gold [4][6] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-on-year, indicating that inflation remains above target levels, providing room for "moderate rate cuts" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October and another in December have been largely priced in, limiting direct support for gold prices [3] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding the pace of rate cuts and the potential impact of political pressure from President Trump on interest rates are key factors influencing market sentiment [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent escalation of conflict in Gaza, following Israel's military actions against Hamas, has added to geopolitical tensions, which traditionally support gold prices [5][6] - Despite the current pressures on gold prices, long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and monetary policy uncertainties continue to support gold's attractiveness [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The recent drop in gold prices below $4,000 triggered technical sell-offs, with significant stop-loss orders being activated, leading to rapid declines [8] - If gold can reclaim and maintain the $4,000 level, it would signal a strong bullish trend; otherwise, continued trading below this level may indicate a short-term top has formed [8] - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and the outcomes of the US-China summit for potential market direction [8]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to decline as easing trade tensions increased investor risk appetite, negatively impacting the demand for gold [1] - Oil prices fell by over 1%, marking a third consecutive day of decline, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, reaching a low of $3971.38 per ounce on October 27, marking a 3.2% decline for the day, closing at $3981.80 [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions and complex expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and global economic outlook [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.11% to 98.84 on October 27, but gold prices did not benefit from this weakness, indicating a more pronounced decline in safe-haven demand [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 3.997%, reflecting increased risk appetite among investors following positive developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations [3] - A framework agreement was reached between U.S. and Chinese negotiators, which includes provisions for China to purchase U.S. soybeans and a pause on rare earth export controls [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed a preliminary consensus on suspending higher tariffs, boosting market confidence and leading to record highs in major U.S. stock indices [4] - The market anticipates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has already been priced in, limiting its direct support for gold prices [4][5] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and monetary policy uncertainties continue to support gold's appeal [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices closed with a bearish candle, indicating potential continued downward pressure, with a recent low of $3970 suggesting a test of the $3900 level may occur [8] - Short-term price movements have shown a negative trend after retreating from a high of $4380, with recent lows around $3970 indicating a possible stabilization [8] Trading Strategy - Short positions are recommended near $4080 with a stop loss at $4095 and targets set at $4035 and $4005 [9] - Long positions are suggested near $3985 with a stop loss at $3970 and targets at $4030 and $4080 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, which may influence the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to consider similar actions in the context of China's economic conditions and expectations for lower interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's total social financing reached 433.66 trillion yuan, increasing the demand for a rate cut among economic entities and individuals [1]. - The PBOC has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) stable at 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, with no adjustments for four consecutive months since May [1][2]. Group 2: Banking Sector Challenges - The net interest margin (NIM) of the banking sector has been under pressure, dropping to 0.947% in Q1 2025, the lowest in history, while the non-performing loan ratio exceeded 1% [2]. - The ability of banks to cover risk costs has diminished, with the NIM's coverage of non-performing loans falling from 120.2% in 2021 to 94.7% in Q1 2025 [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Constraints - The PBOC's decision to hold rates steady is influenced by the dual pressures of declining asset yields and intensified competition on the liability side, leading to a significant reduction in risk appetite within the financial system [3]. - Recent market interest rate trends and fiscal policy execution have created technical constraints on the PBOC's ability to lower rates, with long-term rates rising and indicating tighter liquidity expectations [4]. Group 4: Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Pressures - The inverted yield curve between Chinese and U.S. bonds has raised concerns about capital outflows, with estimates suggesting a net outflow of $100-120 billion in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The PBOC faces pressure to maintain exchange rate stability, as further rate cuts could exacerbate capital outflow risks and weaken the yuan [5][6]. Group 5: Future Policy Considerations - The PBOC is likely to consider a rate cut in late October, potentially aligning with the outcomes of the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting, which may signal new economic policy directions [7]. - The need to achieve the annual economic growth target of around 5% and to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market will add pressure for future monetary easing [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial and commodity futures, including financial derivatives (financial futures, precious metals), shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, etc.). It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions based on the analysis of each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro sentiment improved, and stock indices rose across the board. A - shares opened higher and increased in volume. The four major stock index futures rose with the index, and the basis premium narrowed. The market was boosted by domestic economic data and Sino - US trade talks. It is recommended to try light - selling put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: The expectation of loose monetary policy strengthened, and the futures were expected to rise. Although the futures closed down, the speech at the Financial Street Forum released a signal of loose money. It is expected that the futures will open higher, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and the market awaited the Fed's decision. The prices of gold and silver fell. In the short term, the market may be volatile, but in the long term, precious metals are expected to have a bull market. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices below $4000 [8][9]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The futures market was volatile and declined, mainly affected by the reduction of quotations by MSC. However, the SCFIS European line index continued to rise, so a cautious bullish attitude is maintained. It is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US reached a preliminary consensus, and copper prices reached a new high. The macro environment and supply - demand fundamentals supported the price increase. It is recommended to focus on the support at around 86,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading activity increased, but the short - term oversupply situation was difficult to change. The supply was abundant, while the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the main contract will fluctuate between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price was strong, and the spot discount widened. The macro environment was mixed, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. It is expected that the price will remain in a strong and volatile range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed aluminum and was volatile and strong. The cost support was obvious, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. It is recommended that the main contract operate in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price rose slightly due to the squeeze on LME zinc and macro - level benefits. The supply was loose but the subsequent increase might be limited, and the demand was stable. It is expected to be in a range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, the price was strong. The supply was tight, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation [27][29][30]. - **Nickel**: The price was volatile, and the fundamentals were weak during the policy window period. The production was high, the demand was average, and the inventory was increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan [30][31][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was mainly volatile, and the fundamentals were weak. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was increasing, and the demand was not significantly boosted. It is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [34][35][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price was strong, and the strong demand was gradually realized. The supply - demand gap was expanding in the peak season. It is expected to run strongly, and the main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [37][38][41]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for steel recovered, and the price rose with coking coal. The cost was supported, the supply was affected by environmental protection, the demand was expected to be supported by policies, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply and demand situation was complex, with the decline in arrivals and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand recovered. The supply decreased, and the demand had replenishment needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on the short - term and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase was proposed. The cost was supported, the supply decreased, the demand was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][51][52]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US relations improved, and near - month soybeans had cost support. The price of domestic soybean meal decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans was supported. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will be on a strong trend [53][54][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening boosted the price of pigs. The spot price rose, and the market demand improved. However, there will be an increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in November and December. It is recommended to exit the arbitrage position and re - enter after the spot price stabilizes [56][57]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remained, and the price was weak and volatile. The supply was abundant, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the price was affected by the selling rhythm of farmers and policy support [58][59].