Core Insights - The central bank's financial statistics for the first three quarters indicate that key financial indicators continue to grow faster than the economy, demonstrating solid support for the real economy [2][3] Financial Indicators - As of the end of September, the stock of social financing, M2 (broad money), and RMB loan balances grew by 8.7%, 8.4%, and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The M1 (narrow money) and M2 "scissors difference" narrowed to 1.2 percentage points, reflecting increased business activity and a recovery in personal investment and consumption demand [2][4] Social Financing - The cumulative social financing increment for the first three quarters reached 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - Government bond issuance played a significant role in boosting social financing, with net financing of government bonds amounting to 11.46 trillion yuan, up by 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] Loan Structure - By the end of September, the RMB loan balance was 270.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [6] - The proportion of RMB loans to the real economy in the total social financing stock decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 61.1%, while the government bond balance's share increased by 2.1 percentage points to 21.2% [3] Deposit Trends - In the first three quarters, household deposits increased by 12.73 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits rose by 4.81 trillion yuan [5] - The growth in household deposits has slowed from previous highs, while non-bank deposits continue to grow rapidly, indicating a potential shift of household funds into the capital market [5] Interest Rates - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points [7] - The sustained low interest rates indicate a generally ample supply of credit resources, meeting the financing needs of the real economy effectively [7] Economic Outlook - Analysts expect that the moderately loose monetary policy will continue to support the real economy strongly in the fourth quarter, alongside active fiscal policies [7]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing (TSF) exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a significant increase in financial support for the economy [1] - The growth rate of TSF and broad money supply (M2) remains high, suggesting a conducive monetary environment for economic recovery [1] - The proportion of RMB loans in the TSF increment has decreased to 48%, highlighting the rapid development of direct financing channels [2] Financial Statistics - In the first three quarters, the total social financing increment reached 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan [1] - By the end of September, TSF stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year, and M2 increased by 8.4%, both higher than the previous year [1] Government and Corporate Financing - Net financing from government bonds amounted to 11.46 trillion yuan, up by 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating strong government support [1] - Corporate bond financing also increased, with net financing reaching 1.57 trillion yuan, supported by favorable policies and low issuance rates [1] - The share of net financing from government and corporate bonds rose to 43% in the first three quarters [1] Loan Dynamics - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down by about 40 basis points year-on-year [3] - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, lower by 25 basis points compared to the previous year [3] - The growth rate of new RMB loans in September was 6.6%, but adjusted for local special bond replacement, the growth rate was approximately 7.7% [2] Monetary Indicators - The narrow money supply (M1) growth rate increased to 7.2% by the end of September, a significant rise from earlier in the year [3] - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 narrowed to 1.2 percentage points, indicating improved business activity and consumer demand [3] - The recent changes in M1 statistics now include both corporate and personal demand deposits, reflecting a more comprehensive view of liquidity in the market [3] Asset Reallocation - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects a reallocation of resident assets in response to changing yield rates across different financial markets [4] - This migration indicates that funds are moving from lower-yielding assets to higher-yielding ones, influenced by interest rate changes [4] - The occurrence of "deposit migration" and "reflow" has been noted throughout 2023, suggesting ongoing shifts in investment behavior [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a robust growth in loans and deposits, with total social financing exceeding 30.09 trillion yuan [1][8] - The report reflects a stable credit environment and an ongoing adjustment in monetary policy, suggesting that there is ample room for moderate easing without immediate concerns about high inflation [1][3] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of September, the balance of RMB loans reached 270.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [2] - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 13.44 trillion yuan [2][3] - The total RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan, with household deposits contributing 12.73 trillion yuan [6] Monetary Supply and Policy - The M2 money supply stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, while M1 grew by 7.2% [5][7] - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 has narrowed to 1.2 percentage points, the lowest since 2021, indicating increased activity in the economy [7] - The current monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, supporting economic recovery and growth [9] Social Financing and Economic Support - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1][8] - In September, the new social financing amounted to 35.34 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous year [8] - The structure of social financing shows a shift towards more diversified financing channels, with loans accounting for about 48% of the new social financing, while government and corporate bonds accounted for approximately 43% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a robust monetary environment supporting economic recovery [2][10]. Group 1: Financial Statistics - In the first three quarters, the total social financing scale reached 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2]. - RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan [2]. - As of the end of September, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Direct Financing and Debt Contribution - Government bonds and corporate bonds contributed over 40% of the new social financing, with net financing from government bonds at 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [10]. - Corporate bond financing reached 1.57 trillion yuan, supported by favorable policies and low issuance rates [10]. - The proportion of net financing from government and corporate bonds rose to 43% in the first three quarters [10]. Group 3: Credit Growth and Structure - The growth rate of new RMB loans fell to 6.6% by the end of September, but adjusted for local special bond replacement, the growth rate was approximately 7.7% [12]. - Personal consumption loan subsidies and service industry loan subsidies contributed to a recovery in credit demand [12]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 36.09 trillion yuan, growing by 12.2% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 15.02 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% [12]. Group 4: M1 and Economic Activity - M1 growth reached 7.2% by the end of September, a significant increase from earlier in the year [15]. - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates improved business activity and a recovery in personal consumption demand [15]. - The recent changes in M1 statistics include both corporate and personal demand deposits, reflecting a more active financial environment [15][16]. Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the current macroeconomic environment is characterized by insufficient demand, low inflation, and low interest rates [13]. - The financial impact on the real economy will primarily occur through interest rate channels, emphasizing the importance of monitoring interest rate dynamics [13]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued monetary policy support for the real economy, with fiscal policies also actively contributing to investment [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in social financing scale and the stability of credit growth in China during the first three quarters of the year, indicating a supportive monetary environment for economic recovery [1][8] - The total social financing scale reached 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, with RMB loans increasing by 14.75 trillion yuan and RMB deposits by 22.71 trillion yuan [1][10] - The growth rates of social financing and broad money (M2) remained high, with social financing stock growth at 8.7% year-on-year and M2 growth at 8.4%, both higher than the previous year [1][12] Group 2 - In September, the narrow money (M1) growth rate rose significantly to 7.2%, reflecting increased activity in corporate operations and a recovery in personal investment and consumption demand [6][13] - The contribution of government and corporate bonds to new social financing exceeded 40%, with net financing from government bonds at 11.46 trillion yuan, up 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [8][10] - The structure of credit has been optimizing, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 12.2% year-on-year and medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector increasing by 8.2% [10][11] Group 3 - The average interest rate for newly issued loans in September was approximately 3.1%, lower than the previous year, indicating a low-interest environment that may stimulate demand [11][12] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is observed, where residents are reallocating their assets based on changes in return rates, with total resident deposits increasing by 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [13][14] - Experts suggest that the monetary policy will continue to support the real economy, with fiscal policies also actively contributing to investment, aiming for a growth target of around 5% for the year [14]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in narrow money (M1) growth, which rose by 7.2% year-on-year as of the end of September, marking a substantial acceleration of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and a 7.1 percentage point increase from the year's low in February [1] - The narrowing of the "scissors difference" between M1 and broad money (M2) to 1.2 percentage points in September indicates a recovery in corporate production and personal consumption demand [1] - The revised M1 statistics now include both corporate and personal demand deposits, reflecting changes in deposit behaviors amid a recovering capital market and declining interest rates [1] Financial Market Dynamics - The concept of "deposit migration" represents a reallocation of residents' assets, where individuals shift savings from banks to other assets based on changes in return rates [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, resident deposits increased by 12.73 trillion yuan, showing a notable growth compared to the previous eight months, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions rose by 4.81 trillion yuan, indicating a decline in growth compared to earlier in the year [2] - Experts suggest that "deposit migration" is a result of changes in yield relationships across different financial markets, leading funds to flow from lower-yielding assets to higher-yielding ones [2]

Monetary Supply - M2 money supply year-on-year rate is 84%, less than the expected 85% [1] - M1 year-on-year rate is 72%, exceeding the expected 61% [1] - M0 year-on-year rate is 115%, slightly lower than the previous value of 117% [1] Social Financing and Loans - The increment of social financing scale in the first nine months is 3009 trillion yuan, with 353 trillion yuan newly added in September, an increase of 442 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - RMB loans increased by 1454 trillion yuan, with an increase of 161 trillion yuan in September, a decrease of 8512 billion yuan year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in September decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained stable month-on-month for two consecutive months [1] Group 1: PPI Trends - The narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI is attributed to lower comparison bases from the previous year and the ongoing effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [1] - The construction of a unified national market has led to a reduction in the year-on-year price decline in related industries, with significant improvements in market competition and capacity management [1] - Specific industries such as coal processing, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing saw their price decline rates narrow by 8.3, 3.4, and 2.4 percentage points respectively, contributing to a reduced downward impact on PPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - Upgrades in industrial structure and the release of consumer potential have resulted in year-on-year price increases in certain sectors, including a 1.4% increase in aircraft manufacturing and a 1.2% increase in electronic materials manufacturing [1] - The overall industrial product market is characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, with no fundamental changes expected in this trend [2] - Future PPI trends may face downward pressure due to fluctuations in the external economic environment and a steady increase in the PPI comparison base from October onwards, making it challenging for PPI to turn positive by year-end [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" remains unchanged, with signals of policy adjustments being released, emphasizing quality and stability in quantity, while economic downward pressure has increased in the short term. The "anti-involution" trend may become a major factor influencing economic performance in the second half of the year, with short-term economic pressures existing but long-term benefits for high-quality development [2][6][49]. Supply Side - In August 2025, China's industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slowing down by 0.5 percentage points from July, with a cumulative growth of 6.2%, reflecting the impact of summer heat on supply chain disruptions and continued low real estate investment [3][9]. - The manufacturing and high-tech industries showed more stability, indicating resilience in China's industrial transition towards high quality, although global demand uncertainty and extreme weather pose greater constraints on future growth [3][9]. Demand Side - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a phase adjustment in consumption growth due to policy changes [4][13]. - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 grew by 0.5% year-on-year, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a phase adjustment in investment growth due to policy changes [4][15]. - Exports totaled $321.81 billion in August 2025, up 4.4% year-on-year, but down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with structural changes in exports continuing [4][16]. Price Dynamics - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%, with the decline in PPI narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in industrial product prices [7][23][28]. Monetary and Financial Aspects - In August 2025, the new social financing scale was 25,693 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal adjustments in credit and off-balance-sheet financing [8][31]. - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 6% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in corporate demand for current deposits and improved economic activity [8][44]. - The broad money supply (M2) remained stable at an 8.8% year-on-year growth rate, reflecting steady monetary supply expansion [8][46]. Future Outlook - The industrial output growth rate for 2025 is expected to stabilize around 6%, slightly down from 6.4% in the first half of the year, with policy support preventing significant declines [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and rising risk appetite. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.23, down 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1146, up 0.001 (+0.01%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, with no change (-0.27%); DR007 was 1.48, down 0.01 (-0.90%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, up 0.01 (+0.63%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.63%) [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, capital precipitation trends, position ratios, net position ratios of the top 20, long - short position ratios of the top 20, the spread between government - owned enterprise bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures contracts [13][16][18][22]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows figures on the Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [28][36]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures contracts and the term spreads of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][49][52]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][74]. 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Macroeconomic Aspects - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The previous bonds issued before this date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and increase effective investment [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. 4.2 Capital Aspects - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed, indicating increased capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - to - long - term corporate financing demand. Deposits increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion power and the economy being in a weak recovery stage [2]. - Central Bank: On September 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.462%, 1.567%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4.3 Market Aspects - Closing Prices: On September 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.72 yuan, and 114.32 yuan respectively, with price change rates of - 0.05%, - 0.13%, - 0.21%, and - 0.67% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.007 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, 0.018 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively [2]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].