Group 1: Fixed Income and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [2] - The statement indicated a slight reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, although it remains at a high level [2] Group 2: Energy Transition and High-Temperature Superconductors - Shanghai Superconductor, a leading company in high-temperature superconducting materials, reported projected revenues of CNY 0.83 billion and CNY 2.40 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133% and 187% [2] - The company's gross profit margins are expected to improve to 55.77% and 60.52% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit to CNY 0.73 billion in 2024, indicating a turnaround [2] - The report anticipates that the demand for controllable nuclear fusion will drive down costs and expand application scenarios for high-temperature superconductors [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Retail Growth - The 2025 "618" e-commerce promotion is expected to see stable double-digit growth, driven by a slightly extended activity cycle, government subsidies, and increased user engagement through instant retail scenarios [4] - Major e-commerce platforms are expected to continue competing on improving merchant operations and enhancing user stickiness through multi-channel marketing [4] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba (BABA US/9988 HK) and JD.com (JD US/9618 HK) due to their strong brand support and potential for cross-selling in instant retail [4] Group 4: Utilities and Environmental Sector Performance - The report anticipates a mixed performance among major thermal power companies in Q2 2025, with coal prices expected to decline month-on-month [5] - Hydropower generation is projected to decline year-on-year, while nuclear power operations remain stable [5] - Key focus areas for green power operators include electricity pricing mechanisms and cash flow management for environmental companies [5] Group 5: New Energy and Technology Trends - The report highlights optimism in the profitability of battery and structural components in the electric vehicle sector, alongside advancements in solid-state battery technology [8] - Wind power demand is expected to remain robust, with profitability recovery driven by offshore wind projects [8] - Recommended stocks include CATL, EVE Energy, and others involved in emerging technology sectors such as humanoid robots and AIDC [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Market Demand - The report analyzes the structural characteristics of U.S. Treasury investors, noting that international investors, broad-based mutual funds, and the Federal Reserve account for over 60% of the market [7] - Different investor types exhibit distinct motivations for purchasing Treasuries, with expectations for continued demand from commercial banks and pension funds in the second half of 2025 [7]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 20 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 20 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/李思扬】应流股份（603308）公司深度：高端铸造龙头，受益 AIDC+航空科技+核聚 变产业大趋势 ——20250619 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.8%，沪深 300 下跌 0.8%，科创 50 下跌 0.5%，中证 1000 下跌 1.4%，创业板指下跌 1.4%， 恒生指数下跌 2.0%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是石油石化（+0.9%)、银行（-0.2%)、传媒（-0.5%)、电子（-0.6%)、食品饮料（-0.7%)， 表现最差的行业分别是纺织服饰（-2.4%)、美容护理（-2.3%)、轻工制造（-2.0%)、有色金属（-2.0%)、医药生物 （-1.9%)。 资金：周四全 A 总成交额为 1 ...

Group 1: Electric Vehicles - The report anticipates a 22% year-on-year increase in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driven by policies such as trade-in incentives, new model releases, and price reductions [2][16][22] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is expected to grow by 22% in 2025, supported by carbon emission regulations and ongoing subsidies [2][18][22] - The global demand for power batteries is projected to grow at a rate of 25% in 2025, with a significant increase in battery capacity requirements due to enhanced vehicle range [22][24] Group 2: Wind Power - The domestic wind power market is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with new installations projected at 100 GW for land-based and 12 GW for offshore wind in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 23% and 114% respectively [3][4] - Internationally, the wind power market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increased policy support [3] - The report highlights opportunities in offshore wind and related supply chains, including wind turbines, piles, and submarine cables [3] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The report expects global photovoltaic installations to reach 530-560 GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0-6%, influenced by domestic demand and emerging markets [4] - Supply-side reforms are anticipated to play a crucial role in reshaping the industry, with a key window for these reforms expected between the second half of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [4] - New technologies such as bifacial cells and metallization processes are highlighted as areas of interest for future growth [4] Group 4: Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year in 2025, supported by strong bidding data and the advancement of market-oriented electricity pricing [5] - In the U.S., energy storage installations are expected to increase by 23% in 2025, despite concerns over subsidy reductions [5] - The European market is forecasted to see a 36% increase in energy storage installations in 2025, with significant contributions from large-scale commercial storage [5] Group 5: Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is experiencing a recovery, with growth expected in 2025 due to increased demand from traditional and new energy industries [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots and AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) technologies as key areas for investment [9] - Companies involved in high-value components and new technologies, such as PEEK materials and disc motors, are recommended for attention [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading manufacturer of high-end casting components, benefiting from trends in AIDC, aerospace technology, and nuclear fusion industries [1][9] - The company has established a complete high-end component production system and is a key member of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry chain in China [18][19] - The company plans to issue 1.5 billion convertible bonds to enhance its production capabilities in turbine blade processing and advanced nuclear materials [9][33] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Overview - The company focuses on aviation engines and gas turbine products, benefiting from the demand for domestic large aircraft and AIDC [18] - The company has a strong presence in the high-end parts, aerospace technology, and advanced materials sectors, serving various high-end equipment fields [18][22] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 2,513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [4][25] - The company's sales gross margin is projected to be 34.2%, with a net margin of 10% for 2024 [27][28] Gas Turbine Sector - The global gas turbine market is estimated to be 28.14 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2025 to 2034 [46] - The company is recognized as a domestic leader in gas turbine blades, with a significant increase in orders, achieving a 102.8% year-on-year growth in 2024 [2][61] Aerospace Sector - The global aerospace engine market was approximately 113.97 billion USD in 2023, expected to reach 151.20 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.12% [67] - The company is positioned to benefit from the doubling of global aircraft numbers over the next 20 years, as predicted by Airbus [68] Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power industry is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 8.4% for installed capacity from 2023 to 2035 [3] - The company has established joint ventures to engage in nuclear fusion materials and components, enhancing its position in the nuclear energy sector [3][9]

Group 1 - The 3D printing industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with equipment production increasing by 36%, 11%, and 45% year-on-year from 2023 to Q1 2025, and export volumes rising by 55%, 6%, and 24% during the same period [1] - The market applications of 3D printing have expanded from consumer goods in Europe and the US to include trendy toys in China, and are gradually penetrating functional items such as footwear and helmets [1] - 3D printing is recognized as a strategic emerging industry with strong domestic and international policy support, leading to sustained market growth [1] Group 2 - Tencent's WeGame Game Night is scheduled for June 16, showcasing important game releases and new titles, indicating a positive outlook for the gaming sector [2] - The gaming and media sectors are viewed as one of the best emerging consumer segments, with recent stock price increases in companies like Lehua, Juxing, Alibaba Pictures, Maoyan, and NetEase Music signaling a valuation recovery [2] - The cultural export of gaming and media is just beginning, supported by favorable policies, which presents further growth opportunities [2] Group 3 - The construction of new data centers is on the rise due to the AI wave, with liquid cooling technology becoming essential to address energy consumption challenges [3] - The power density of AIDC cabinets is increasing from traditional IDC levels of 5-15KW to several tens of KW, while traditional air cooling systems have a maximum cooling capacity of 25KW per cabinet [3] - Liquid cooling systems can significantly enhance energy efficiency and reduce overall costs, positioning them to become mainstream in the AIDC era [4] Group 4 - Major corporations like Amazon and Walmart are exploring the possibility of issuing their own stablecoins in the US, indicating a growing interest in digital currencies among large enterprises [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of computing hardware stocks and the positive outlook for the AI computing power sector in China, with significant growth expected in the coming years [1][2] - The China Intelligent Computing Power Scale is projected to reach 1037.3 EFLOPS by 2025 and 2781.9 EFLOPS by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.94% from 2025 to 2028 [1] - The CSI Big Data Industry Index (930902) saw an increase of 0.99%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Tianxiao (up 4.60%) and Hengsheng Electronics (up 4.54%) [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities emphasizes the AIDC computing power industry chain as a core focus, recommending attention to seven key industry directions, including AIDC data center construction and IT equipment [2] - The Data ETF (516000) closely tracks the CSI Big Data Industry Index, which includes companies involved in big data storage, analysis, and applications, reflecting the overall performance of the big data and computing power industry [2] - The big data industry, represented by the Data ETF, is positioned as a key sector driven by policy catalysts and technological iterations, characterized by a dual engine of "computing power foundation + scenario innovation" [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.2 CNY per share based on a 25x PE for 2025 [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the low-voltage electrical industry, focusing on the "Two Intelligence and One Innovation" strategy to drive transformation and growth. The operational efficiency is expected to improve with the commissioning of the Haiyan factory, and the company is well-prepared for the trends in the AIDC sector and the shift towards direct current (DC) products in data centers [4][16]. - The company anticipates a robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 459.2 million CNY, 601.7 million CNY, and 807.1 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 31%, and 34% [4][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from a traditional low-voltage electrical manufacturer to a provider of intelligent distribution solutions, focusing on high-growth areas such as renewable energy and data centers [16]. - The revenue structure is evolving, with a significant portion expected from the AIDC sector and international markets, particularly in North America and Southeast Asia [18]. 2. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a steady recovery in infrastructure investment and a narrowing decline in real estate demand, with expectations of 20-30% growth in infrastructure-related revenue by 2025 [3]. - The company is leveraging its strengths in the renewable energy sector, with anticipated revenue growth of 20-30% in this area by 2025, driven by increasing demand for energy storage and wind power installations [10][31]. 3. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of 42.38 billion CNY for 2024, with a slight decline from the previous year, primarily due to weak demand in the real estate sector [31]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.41 CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 20.4 based on the current price [4]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The low-voltage electrical market is characterized by a fragmented domestic landscape, with the company holding a 5% market share, ranking fifth among domestic competitors [54]. - The report notes that the global low-voltage electrical market is dominated by foreign brands, but there is significant potential for domestic brands to expand their international presence [52]. 5. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to high R&D investment to support its transition to intelligent distribution solutions, with a focus on enhancing product offerings and market share in the AIDC and renewable energy sectors [31][28]. - The management team, with a strong technical background, is well-equipped to drive the company's strategic transformation and long-term growth [28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of AI applications and models, particularly from ByteDance and Oracle, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the AI computing and application sectors [10][20] - The report emphasizes the robust performance of Oracle's cloud business, with expectations for significant revenue growth in the upcoming fiscal year [18][19] - The report identifies seven key industry directions for investment, including AIDC infrastructure, IT equipment, network devices, cloud computing, AI applications, satellite internet, and 6G [20][21][22][27] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook - ByteDance's Force Conference showcased significant advancements in AI models, with daily token usage exceeding 16.4 trillion, marking a 137-fold increase since its launch [13][15] - OpenAI's release of the o3-pro model enhances complex reasoning capabilities, further driving demand for AI computing [16][17] - Oracle's fourth fiscal quarter results exceeded expectations, with cloud infrastructure revenue projected to grow over 70% in the next fiscal year [18][19] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of April 2025, China has 4.439 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 188,000 from the end of 2024 [29] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.081 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [29] - 5G mobile phone shipments totaled 19.889 million units, accounting for 79.4% of total shipments, although this represents a 1.7% year-on-year decline [29] 3. Operator Performance - The report notes strong growth in the cloud revenue of major telecom operators, with China Mobile's cloud revenue reaching 100.4 billion yuan, a 20.4% increase year-on-year [43] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for China Mobile remained stable at 48.5 yuan, while China Telecom's ARPU slightly increased to 45.6 yuan [43][46]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The overall inflation in the US has started to rebound, with May CPI increasing by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a potential upward trend in inflation despite core inflation remaining stable [6][7][8] - Energy inflation continues to be negative, with energy prices decreasing by 3.5% year-on-year in May, while food prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year, suggesting a shift in inflation contributions towards core goods [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more pronounced, with less than 30% of companies opting not to pass on costs to consumers, indicating a potential for sustained inflationary pressure [8][9] Group 2: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In May, the release of large pigs has put pressure on prices, with the average selling price of live pigs at 14.61 yuan/kg, down 1.31% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year, indicating a bearish outlook for pig prices in the short term [12][13] - The structure of pig sales shows an increase in the proportion of large pigs being sold, with the proportion of pigs over 150kg at 4.94%, slightly higher than the same period last year, suggesting a shift in supply dynamics [13] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased in May, with prices ranging from 14.02 to 14.87 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend across the board [15] Group 3: Communication Industry Insights - The launch of the Doubao large model 1.6 has seen a significant increase in token usage, with daily usage exceeding 16.4 trillion tokens, a 137-fold increase since its release, indicating strong demand for AI applications [17][18] - The Doubao model has been upgraded to support multi-modal understanding and has been adopted by major industries, with 80% of mainstream automotive companies integrating the model into their systems [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of the AIDC computing power industry chain, recommending focus on seven key areas including AI chip production and cloud computing platforms, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the sector [19]

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