Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and changes in central bank purchasing behavior, leading to significant fluctuations in the market [2][4][20]. Group 1: Upward Drivers - Macroeconomic factors include expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September 2024, indicating a liquidity turning point amid high global economic uncertainty [5][20]. - Geopolitical tensions have escalated, particularly in regions like Ukraine, Venezuela, and Iran, contributing to a more pronounced global divide and increasing the appeal of gold as a safe haven [5][20]. - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold as a strategic asset, reflecting concerns over the credibility of the US dollar and inflation, as well as a growing demand for safe-haven assets [5][20]. - The industrial value of gold is being reassessed due to its applications in key sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy, and semiconductors, highlighting its long-term strategic value [5][20]. Group 2: Downward Drivers - Recent declines in gold prices are largely attributed to extreme market reactions, including disappointing earnings reports from major companies and a hawkish stance from the newly nominated Federal Reserve chair, which has bolstered the dollar [6][21]. - Indicators of overbought conditions in the market suggest that the rapid price increases prior to the decline were unsustainable, leading to a significant correction [6][21]. Group 3: Historical Comparison - The upward drivers of gold prices from 2008 to 2011 were primarily driven by safe-haven demand during the financial crisis, inflation concerns due to quantitative easing, and a shift in central bank behavior from net sellers to net buyers of gold [8][23]. - The downward drivers from 2011 to 2015 included a shift in monetary policy, economic recovery reducing risk aversion, easing inflation pressures, and a strengthening dollar, which collectively diminished gold's appeal [9][24]. - Current price-driving logic differs from historical patterns, with a more complex interplay of factors including geopolitical conflicts, industrial value reassessment, and a shift in central bank purchasing strategies, indicating a more diversified set of influences on gold prices [10][25]. Group 4: Investor Insights - The recent volatility in gold prices serves as a reminder that no asset can sustain perpetual growth, and investors should be cautious of overexposure to any single asset class [11][26]. - A balanced asset allocation strategy is recommended, with gold serving more as a safety net rather than a primary growth engine, allowing for risk mitigation through diversification [12][27]. - Investors are advised to consider the complexity of current market drivers and prioritize risk management over speculative trading in an unpredictable environment [14][28].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold and silver markets serves as a lesson on the risks associated with asset price movements driven by narratives and emotions rather than fundamentals [2][29]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices was triggered by the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman, but it represents a delayed stress test of market conditions [3][4]. - Gold prices surged by 25% in January 2025, driven by a narrative of "de-dollarization" and geopolitical tensions, indicating a detachment from traditional valuation metrics [5][6]. - The correlation between the largest gold ETF holdings and gold prices reached 0.98, suggesting that rising prices became a self-fulfilling prophecy fueled by investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Asset Characteristics - Gold is primarily viewed as a "currency" and "store of wealth," with over 90% of its demand coming from investment and reserve needs, while silver is seen as an "industrial raw material" and a "miniature version of gold" [8][9]. - The total market value of gold now matches that of U.S. Treasury securities, indicating a potential shift in the global monetary system [11]. - Silver's price is influenced by both financial sentiment and industrial demand, with nearly half of its demand coming from industrial uses [12][20]. Group 3: Market Reactions Post-Volatility - Following the recent market turmoil, gold prices rebounded to around $5,000 per ounce, while silver prices fell sharply from a peak of $121 to approximately $90, highlighting their differing market dynamics [16][18]. - Institutional views on gold remain bullish despite the recent downturn, citing ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and strong central bank purchases as key support factors [19]. - In contrast, silver's recent price surge was largely driven by retail investors and momentum trading, with a significant decline in industrial and jewelry demand observed [20][25]. Group 4: Lessons Learned - The recent market fluctuations highlight the importance of maintaining discipline in investment strategies, emphasizing the need to avoid speculative narratives and focus on asset fundamentals [29][30]. - Investors are encouraged to assess their portfolios critically, considering the potential impact of market downturns on their investments and adjusting positions accordingly [31][32]. - A balanced mindset is crucial, as market volatility can lead to overconfidence; recognizing the inherent risks and historical volatility of precious metals is essential for sound investment decisions [34][38].

金市大鲤：主要有两点。第一，对于市场判断而言，当遇到交易不顺或者连续亏损时，人容易觉得被市场"针对"，于是向外寻求"大腿"，期待与"高人"交 流，指望别人成为自己的英雄。但真相是：失败时若只顾寻找借口、盲从他人，只会耗尽本金、一无所获。没有人能替你负责，最终能拯救你的，只有自 己。 第二，关于善意与边界。不要因为自己赚了钱，就觉得能拯救别人。市场里没有谁需要你去"救"，你也救不了。各人有各人的因果，各自的理解与认知。保 持敬畏，专注做好自己，就是对市场最好的尊重。 金市大鲤：我喜欢通过看新闻、健身、喝茶、盘串、看书来调节状态。我不太认同"自律"这种说法——人们做一件事，往往只是因为它能带来快乐和沉浸 感，而不是因为它被定义为"好习惯"。所谓"噪音"，只对内心不纯粹的人存在。当你足够专注于自己热爱的事，就能自然保持平静。保持冷静，离不开足够 的阅历和认知。也许因为我是天秤座，习惯权衡利弊；也可能是因为过往的感性曾带来教训，所以选择用理性面对市场。 本期主题：2026搞钱指南 在波谲云诡的经济浪潮中，有人仰望星空，预判大势走向；有人深耕一域，洞察人性明暗；还有人俯身田野，在数据与生活的交汇处寻找答案。 搜狐号有这 ...

1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for stabilization [1] - Silver: Not recommended to participate [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Hold an empty position and wait and see [1] 2. Core Views - For precious metals, the recent sharp adjustment is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives, along with forced liquidations. However, the long - term support factors for gold remain stable [1][3]. - Copper is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, but long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][7]. - Zinc is facing weak demand and inventory accumulation in the short term, while long - term supply challenges may bring opportunities [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation and seasonal demand weakness [1][14]. - Nickel prices are relatively weak due to high inventory and weak consumption in the off - season [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are highly volatile, and it is advisable to hold an empty position due to regulatory and market risks [1][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets of gold and silver are in short - term adjustment. Gold prices on SHFE dropped by 3.15% and COMEX by 3.78%. Silver prices on SHFE dropped by 13.85% and COMEX by 19.84%. The gold - silver ratio has increased significantly [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The sharp drop in precious metals is a result of over - speculation in the short - term and forced liquidations. The long - term support factors for gold, such as central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty, remain intact. However, short - term market volatility needs to be digested [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold to stabilize, and avoid participating in silver in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of domestic gold around 1060 and silver around 19000, and continue to monitor the decline in volatility [1][4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai copper main contract dropped by 1.34%, LME copper by 1.42%, and COMEX copper by 3.48%. Trading volume increased by 18%, while open interest decreased by 5%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and copper concentrate processing fees have reached a new low. Domestic smelters plan to cut production, and refined copper supply is slowing. Although in the demand off - season, long - term demand from power, new energy, and other sectors is expected to support copper prices [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in copper cautiously in the short term, and keep a long - term perspective. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [99000, 103000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai zinc main contract dropped by 0.40%, and LME zinc by 0.21%. Trading volume decreased by 5.68%, and open interest decreased by 10.97%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with social inventories increasing [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. However, emerging industries may offset some of the decline in traditional demand [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce positions in the short term, control risks, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long term, consider buying on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of LME aluminum dropped by 1.21%, Shanghai aluminum main contract by 2.38%, and alumina main contract by 1.20%. Open interest in both aluminum and alumina decreased. Inventories increased, with SHFE aluminum inventory increasing by 10.01% and SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increasing by 2.33% [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but demand is in the off - season. Alumina prices are under pressure due to overseas bauxite prices and inventory issues [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The price of LME nickel dropped by 0.84%, Shanghai nickel main contract by 2.29%, and stainless steel main contract by 0.11%. Open interest in nickel increased slightly, while that in stainless steel decreased. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with SMM pure nickel social inventory increasing by 6.56% [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production in 2026, but the actual supply is uncertain. Domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season with weak demand and increasing inventory [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is [120000 - 145000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract LC2605 dropped by 9.81%, and trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of lithium carbonate and related products also declined, while the basis increased significantly [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic lithium salt plant production is declining, and supply is expected to be tight. Demand may pick up due to pre - holiday stocking and policy adjustments, but regulatory risks are high [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an empty position, with the range of [12500 - 140000] yuan/ton [22].

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 06 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

Group 1 - The gold stock sector is experiencing a rebound, with the gold stock ETF (517400) turning positive and seeing a net inflow of over 1.3 billion yuan in the past 20 days [1] - After 2022, in the context of de-globalization, central banks and financial institutions are reallocating assets, with a sustained increase in gold allocation becoming a cornerstone for the long-term rise in gold prices [1] - If the proportion of investable gold exceeds the peak of 3.6% in 2011, reaching 4.3-4.8% between 2026-2028, gold prices could rise to $5400-6800 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The long-term price center of gold is expected to rise, and investors may consider participating in subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold fund ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Gold has allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue the weak oscillation pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall over - supply pressure, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens, and cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. - The urea price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. - The PTA market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. - The soda ash market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. - The glass market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. - The caustic soda market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. - The copper market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. - The aluminum market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. - The zinc market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. - The lead market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. - The tin market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. - The palm oil market may consider buying on dips [66]. - The rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets are recommended to wait and see for now [69]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. - The apple market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short term and strong in the medium and long term. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [77]. - The pig market is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the changes in supply and consumption around the Spring Festival [80]. - The egg market is recommended to wait and see, as the supply in February may remain at a relatively high level [83]. - The corn and corn starch markets are expected to follow the corn market. It is necessary to wait for the release of supply pressure [84]. - The log market shows a strong performance on the disk, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 64.5 billion yuan on the day. The service trade in 2025 showed steady growth [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends [8]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. In 2025, domestic gold production increased, but consumption decreased. The US ISM service PMI index declined slightly [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and gold has allocation and hedging value. However, the short - term market fluctuations may increase, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure increases. The prices may continue the weak oscillation pattern [13]. - Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern is weak [15]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The supply of coking coal may decline during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose slightly. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the short - term oversupply has weakened [19]. - After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC + may maintain the decision to suspend production increases in March [20]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is strong, and the trading volume of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil paper futures increased [23]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens [26]. - Cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The price of raw materials rose, the supply decreased slightly, the demand improved year - on - year, and the inventory increased [28]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The overseas supply is shrinking, the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [31]. - The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The price was supported by exports and costs, but the high inventory and weak demand restricted the price increase [33]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The supply increased, the demand was driven by exports and the market sentiment, and the industry profit increased [37]. - The price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, and the PX operating rate increased slightly [39]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the processing fee rose to the average level of previous years [41]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The overall operating load increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream polyester entered the seasonal maintenance period [42]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was at a low level [44]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee rebounded, the supply was expected to decrease, and the export increased [45]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [46]. - The market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The number of production lines decreased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [48]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production was at a high level, the inventory was still at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [49]. - The market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory continued to accumulate, the domestic supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [52]. - The market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [53]. - The market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell. The geopolitical events increased the risk - aversion demand, the mine supply was disturbed, and the terminal consumption entered the off - season [54]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, and alumina futures rose. The alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production growth is limited, and the demand is weak [56]. - The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell. The supply tightened, the demand was weak, and the social inventory has not yet started to accumulate [58]. - The market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply was restricted by the shortage of raw materials, the demand was differentiated, and the inventory was extremely low [60]. - The market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The mine supply was tight, the demand showed some resilience, and the inventory decreased [62]. - The market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia changed, the production cost increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory was at a relatively high level [63]. - The market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose slightly, and soybean oil futures fell. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy improved the demand expectation. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends [64]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell. The market expects the inventory to decrease, the production to decline, and the export to increase. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level [66]. - The market may consider buying on dips [66]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy and the China - Canada tariff policy have an impact on the market. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at a relatively high level [69]. - The market is recommended to wait and see for now [69]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell, and the domestic cotton production increased, but the inventory accumulation was lower than expected. The future supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient [71]. - The market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly, and the external market sugar price fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient with high imports [75]. - The market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The market is in the late stage of Spring Festival stocking, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality have declined [77]. - The market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term before the Spring Festival, market funds may be cautious, and precious metal prices are expected to enter a range - bound trend. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains strong. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise, providing good long - term allocation opportunities after stabilization [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **内外盘金银行情** - On February 5, 2026, London gold spot was $4920.10/ounce, London silver spot was $78.45/ounce, COMEX gold was $4939.00/ounce, COMEX silver was $78.05/ounce, AU2602 was 1109.10 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 19490.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1104.80 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 19800.00 yuan/kilogram. Compared with February 4, 2026, the price of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 3.1% and silver down about 12.5% - 12.7% [4] - On February 5, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed down 1.35% to 1105.76 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract closed down 10.85% to 20255 yuan/kilogram [4] - **价差/比价情况** - On February 5, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 4.3 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was 310 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was 4.31 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 26 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 56.91, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 63.28, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.34 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 765 yuan/kilogram. Compared with February 4, 2026, the price difference and ratio changed, with the gold TD - SHFE active price difference down 40.4%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference up 17.9%, etc. [4] 2. Position Data - As of February 4, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1081.95 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 16370.05273 tons. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long position was 252100 contracts, the short position was 46704 contracts, and the net long position was 205396 contracts. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long position was 43475 contracts, the short position was 19772 contracts, and the net long position was 23703 contracts. Compared with February 3, 2026, the positions changed, with the gold ETF - SPDR down 0.13%, the silver ETF - SLV down 0.41%, etc. [4] 3. Inventory Data - On February 5, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 104052.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 412459.00 kilograms. On February 4, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 35691231 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 400790911 troy ounces. Compared with the previous day, the SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.99%, the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 2.55%, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.18%, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.76% [4] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On February 5, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.96. On February 4, 2026, the US dollar index was 97.65, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.29%, the VIX was 18.64, the S&P 500 was 6882.72, and the NYWEX crude oil was 64.47. Compared with the previous day, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.05%, the US dollar index increased by 0.27%, etc. [4]

展望后续走势，机构普遍认为，美元指数短期仍将维持震荡反弹态势，但中长期仍面临下行压力。从核 心驱动因素来看，2026年美联储仍处于降息周期，联邦基金利率进一步走低将削弱美元资产收益率优 势，叠加美国政府财政赤字扩大、"去美元化"进程持续推进等结构性因素，美元中长期偏弱格局难有根 本改变superscript:1superscript:3。预计2026年美元指数核心波动区间为92-99，短期反弹高度或受限于98 关口附近，后续走势仍需关注美联储政策表态、美国通胀及就业数据等关键变量superscript:3。 对于全球市场而言，美元短期反弹将对非美货币、黄金及新兴市场资产产生一定压制。非美货币中，欧 元、英镑等近期均呈现震荡回落态势；黄金作为无息资产，受美元走强影响承压下行；新兴市场则需警 惕资金回流美元体系带来的资本外流压力，后续需重点跟踪美元指数走势及美联储政策调整节奏 superscript:1superscript:3。 美国经济数据的边际好转为美元反弹注入动力。近期公布的美国ISM制造业指数重返荣枯线以上，服务 业指数持平于53.8略超预期，显示美国经济复苏动能仍在。尽管1月ADP就业数据逊于预期，反 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating for precious metals is "Overweight" (Maintain) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the long-term increase in gold holdings by central banks is driven by concerns over the creditworthiness of dollar assets, the need for stable exchange rates in extreme scenarios, and geopolitical risks. It is projected that central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves, stabilizing at around 800 tons per year from 2026 to 2030 [2] - The report anticipates that the average gold price could rise to between $5,400 and $6,800 per ounce from 2026 to 2028, driven by a potential increase in the investment allocation of gold in global financial assets [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Projections - The average gold price is expected to reach $6,800 per ounce by 2028, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being $5,463 and $6,059 per ounce respectively. This is based on historical distribution of gold allocation and structural shifts due to de-dollarization and geopolitical factors [6][12] Section 2: Central Bank Demand - Central banks are expected to maintain a long-term increase in gold holdings, with the proportion of gold in reserves projected to rise to 21.4% by mid-2025. If this proportion reaches the historical median of 34% by 2035, the demand for gold could continue to grow [2] Section 3: Non-Investment Demand - Non-investment demand for gold, primarily from jewelry and industrial uses, is expected to stabilize. Jewelry demand is projected to average around 1,951 tons per year, while industrial demand is expected to remain steady at approximately 332 tons per year [3] Section 4: Investment Demand - The report estimates that the stock of gold allocated for personal and institutional investment will gradually increase, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 being 85,713 tons, 86,642 tons, and 87,953 tons respectively [4] Section 5: Financial Asset Allocation - There is still room for increased allocation of gold in global financial assets, with the expected market value of investable gold reaching approximately $15.1 trillion, $16.9 trillion, and $19.3 trillion in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [5][16]