2026.02. 02 本文字数：2022，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 封图 | 瑞士 百达 资管首席经济学家韦柏睿 自国际现货黄金在1月29日触及5596美元/盎司的高点后，短时间大幅回调，最低下探至4402美元，跌幅达27%。截至第一财经记者发稿，金价为每 盎司4724美元/盎司，回踩至今年1月中旬水平。 随着金价快速冲高又骤然回调，市场弥漫着一股"估值焦虑"：支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑是否已然生变？ 韦柏睿认为，随着美元"武器化"风险显现，各国央行在主动、加速地降低对美元的依赖。"自2014年以来，主权基金和央行等官方机构一直在重新平衡 其美元头寸。美元在全球外汇储备中的占比在2014年达到66%的峰值，去年已降至58%。"他称，即便是在美元指数走强的时期，这种占比减少的趋 势依然在持续，如果从纯估值角度来看，这甚至是"违背直觉"的。 换言之，占比减少并非由美元走弱导致的汇率缩水，而是各国央行主动减持美元资产的力度已经抵消、甚至超过了美元升值带来的账面价值增长。 卖美元买黄金？ 韦柏睿表示，"去美元化"的趋势始于2014年克里米亚事件，当时美国首次将美元"武器化"，冻结俄罗斯资产。此举带来 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The performance of various ETFs shows significant declines, with the Nonferrous Metals ETF down by 10.01% over five days and 12.89% year-to-date, while the Gold ETF is down by 10.00% over five days and 8.94% year-to-date [1] - Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp drop, with gold spot prices falling to nearly $4,400 per ounce and silver approaching $71 per ounce, marking a historic decline of 9.25% on January 31 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for metal futures, increasing gold margin from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, which significantly impacts market liquidity and may force speculative investors to liquidate positions [4] - The recent surge in gold prices above $5,500 per ounce and silver above $120 per ounce was driven by a combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions and a shift in investor confidence towards precious metals [4] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, supported by monetary easing, its safe-haven status, and the trend of de-dollarization globally, despite short-term volatility [9][10] - Central banks worldwide, including China, continue to increase their gold reserves, indicating sustained demand for gold as a strategic asset [10][13] - The potential for a super cycle in commodities is anticipated, driven by economic recovery and expansionary fiscal policies, particularly in the context of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections [18]

2026年1月29日，美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为新任美联储主席，这一消息成为压垮市场的"最后一根稻草"。沃什以强硬对抗通胀著称，其 提名意味着美联储可能从宽松政策转向紧缩立场，市场迅速对"鹰派加息"预期重新定价。美元指数随之飙升，以美元计价的黄金、白银遭遇重击。这一政策 转向不仅扭转了此前美元贬值的单边预期，更直接削弱了贵金属作为抗通胀资产的吸引力，导致资金大规模撤离贵金属市场。 尽管短期暴跌惨烈，支撑贵金属长期上涨的底层逻辑尚未瓦解。去美元化进程仍在推进，全球央行年度购金量维持高位，地缘政治风险也未根本缓解。分析 人士指出，此轮调整实为市场挤出泡沫的必要过程，当杠杆资金出清、投机情绪降温后，金银或迎来更健康的上涨周期。不过美联储政策路径仍是关键变 量，若沃什真正推行激进缩表，可能阶段性压制贵金属表现；反之，若经济衰退风险加剧，黄金将重获避险资金青睐。 国际商业银行与对冲基金的操作揭示了这场风暴的本质。数据显示，纽约商品交易所白银注册库存与未平仓合约的错配达到历史极值，这种人为制造的供需 紧张曾是推高银价的核心逻辑。然而当价格触及历史高点，包括渣打、瑞银在内的机构率先减持净多头仓位。高盛监测显 ...

金价一度失守4500美元关口，白银单日暴跌超14%，盘中从峰值回撤近千美元，一场不仅仅由美联储主席提名引发的市场地震正席卷全球。 今日午盘，现货黄金一路下挫，失守4500美元/盎司大关，盘中一度触及4497美元，创下1月9日以来新低，日内重挫近8%。 而白银市场更为惨烈，现货白银失守73美元/盎司关口，单日跌幅超过14%。 这场暴跌已延续了连续三个交易日的下行趋势。从历史高点计算，黄金已从峰值回落约1100美元。 市场震荡 2月2日的交易数据显示，现货黄金价格一路下跌，失守4500美元/盎司关口。盘中一度触及4497美元/盎司，为1月9日以来首次。 若从近期高点计算，黄金价格自峰值已回撤约1100美元。 白银市场更为惨烈，现货白银失守73美元/盎司关口，日内跌幅一度超过14%。 连锁反应 暴跌潮已蔓延至其他市场。国内期货市场表现更为极端，黄金期货主力合约沪金一度跌超15%，沪银主力合约直接跌停。 上海黄金交易所迅速采取风险控制措施，宣布调整白银延期合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例。 与此同时，加密货币市场也受到波及。比特币和以太坊等主流加密货币同步下跌。 特别是与贵金属挂钩的代币化资产，如代币化白银期货，过去 ...

2月2日，国内大宗商品期货市场罕见掀起跌停潮。 继国际金银价格暴跌之后，周一（2月2日），国内期货市场多个品种纷纷跌停，先是沪银、钯、铂、锡 期货主力合约开盘后便快速跌停，下午，沪镍、沪铜、沪铝、国际铜、原油、燃料油、铸造铝合金等期 货主力合约也陆续跌停；沪金期货主力合约大跌15.73%，基本金属全线下跌，能源、化工、航运等板 块也都出现不同程度的下跌。 华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇对第一财经称，大宗商品大规模跌停，主要是因市场情绪从亢 奋走向恐慌，从一个极端走向另一个极端，后续会回归。而且以有色、贵金属等为代表的商品上涨趋势 不会逆转，只不过市场波动加大，给风控带来挑战，容易出现多空均受损的情况。 多位期货行业人士告诉记者，目前期货公司在不断通知客户减仓或者追保，在大宗商品大规模跌停的情 况下，投资者爆仓风险大增。国内外交易所对贵金属等高波动品种不断出台降温举措，叠加临近春节全 市场主动降仓，贵金属期货出现局部爆仓现象，但尚未看到较强的爆仓潮。 就当前策略而言，"必须极度清晰和务实：首要任务是防守。"国信期货首席分析师顾冯达建议，投资者 利用市场反弹，坚决降低整体仓位，将大部分浮盈落袋为安，尤其对白 ...

Group 1 - The market witnessed significant volatility in February, with a notable decline in gold and silver prices, attributed to market reactions to potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and monetary policy [8][6]. - Gold prices dropped from 5600 to 4682, while silver experienced a nearly 40% intraday pullback, indicating severe market stress and liquidity issues [6][8]. - The decline in gold is not fundamentally driven but rather a result of liquidity squeeze and increased implied volatility, with the market reacting to Trump's nomination of a Fed chair with a history of advocating for interest rate cuts and balance sheet reductions [8][10]. Group 2 - The telecommunications sector is facing increased tax burdens as the VAT rate for telecom services is set to rise from 6% to 9%, which will impact revenue and profit margins for major operators [14][15]. - Major telecom companies, including China Unicom, China Telecom, and China Mobile, experienced significant stock price declines following the announcement, with China Unicom's H-shares dropping over 11% at one point [14][15]. - The adjustment in tax policy may lead to a shift in industry dynamics, potentially reducing inefficient competition and encouraging a focus on technological innovation and high-quality services [14]. Group 3 - The real estate sector is under severe pressure, exemplified by Vanke's projected net loss of 82 billion, marking a 65.7% increase in losses compared to the previous year, which is expected to be the largest annual loss in A-share history [12][13]. - This situation reflects the broader challenges facing the real estate industry, with recovery dependent on both individual company strategies and overall market stabilization [12][13]. Group 4 - The liquor industry, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, is showing signs of recovery with price stabilization and potential for valuation improvement, despite ongoing challenges [17][18]. - The liquor sector is characterized by low expectations, low valuations, and low holdings, with public fund holdings in liquor stocks at a historical low of 3.93% [17][18]. - Analysts suggest that 2026 may present a bottoming opportunity for the industry, with expectations of a recovery phase beginning to emerge [18][19].

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月2日电（记者 王小璐）近期国际黄金市场剧烈震荡，在前期急速上涨后，1月30日现货 黄金价格单日重挫超9%，2月2日跌势进一步扩大，市场风险急剧攀升。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞表示，金价冲高回落主要因为前期上行速度过快，叠加市场严重超 买，引发资金获利了结离场。此外，凯文·沃什被提名下任美联储主席，由于其一向被市场视作"鹰 派"，或将带动美元走强，对金价形成压制。 中金公司研报强调，当前金价已超越传统基本面分析框架。报告指出，金价显然已超越单纯的基本面主 导，所以传统的黄金测算模型如实际利率已经早早失效。伴随金价急涨，黄金ETF和金价过去两年相关 系数抬升至0.98，为历史高点，都表明情绪已经亢奋到一定程度。其提示道，对投资者而言，长期的趋 势固然重要但太过宏大，短期的波动事关头寸却脚踏实地，"定投"的含金量再次凸显。 面对高波动，交易所出手为市场降温。当地时间1月30日，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）再度上调黄金期 货交易保证金要求，以防范市场风险。此外，国有六大行也相继发布公告，提示交易风险。 长期来看，黄金仍具有上行潜力。招商银行研究院报告指出，短期看，在本月极端单边行 ...

白银的疯狂上涨，说实话我已经见怪不怪了，其实白银这波暴涨，核心还是美元信用体系出了大问题，再加上工业刚需、资本操作和政策助力，多重力量叠 在一起才造就了这场疯狂。最根本的原因，就是美国的债务危机和美元霸权的衰落。截至2026年1月，美国国债已经突破38.64万亿美元，占GDP比重超 135%，每年的利息支出就超1万亿美元，只能靠借新还旧维持，形成了恶性循环。为了化解债务压力，美联储只能放水，搞债务货币化，这就导致美元购买 力不断下降，大家都想找实物资产避险，黄金白银自然成了首选，而白银既有贵金属的金融属性，价格又比黄金便宜，自然成了资金追捧的焦点。 最危险的是，美国的债务危机和金融市场的泡沫，已经到了濒临破裂的边缘。美国靠债务货币化缓解压力，本质上就是饮鸩止渴，长期的宽松政策已经催生 了巨大的资产泡沫，白银的疯狂就是泡沫的缩影。 除此之外，工业刚需也给白银涨势托了底。全球60%的白银需求来自工业，中国更是占到90%，尤其是光伏、新能源汽车和AI产业的爆发，成了"吞银兽"。 光伏的N型电池银耗比传统技术高很多，电动车用银量是燃油车的1.5-2倍，AI服务器的GPU也离不开白银，而且这些技术短期内没有替代方案，再 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral (downgraded) [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including changes in monetary policy expectations, increased geopolitical risks, and a weakening dollar [4][6][9] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of volatility due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has led to significant fluctuations in gold prices [7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Events - On January 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts [3] - On January 30, 2026, President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, pending Senate approval [3] - Following these announcements, gold prices reversed their upward trend, with COMEX gold futures experiencing a single-day drop exceeding 10%, the largest since the 1980s [3] Economic Analysis - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with a labor market characterized as "weak but not failing." The unemployment rate has risen but remains within manageable limits, and non-farm payroll growth has slowed without entering a critical downturn [4] - Inflation metrics, including CPI and core CPI, have significantly decreased compared to pre-rate hike levels, yet still fall short of the 2% target [4] Market Dynamics - The report identifies three main drivers for the recent gold price movements: 1. Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions [6] 2. A weakening dollar and the ongoing process of "de-dollarization" globally [6] 3. Political risks affecting the independence of the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy shift [6] Future Outlook - Short-term adjustments in gold prices are anticipated due to profit-taking and market corrections following the recent highs [9] - Despite potential short-term declines, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by structural factors such as ongoing dollar depreciation and rising fiscal and debt risks in the U.S. [9]

前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，国际金价大幅下跌和大量抛压有关，短期涨幅过大累积了大量 获利盘，在市场见顶回落的时候出现急跌，但金价长期上涨的逻辑不变，去美元化趋势不变。短期涨幅 过快引起大幅回调，预计急速下跌的阶段很快结束，后期可能会出现反复震荡走势。 展望后市，工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林表示，金价还会维持较高的价格水平，但再创新 高的难度较大，金价上涨是有可能的，但上涨的主升浪已经结束，未来只是投资人阶段性补仓导致的脉 冲行情。 2月2日下午，现货黄金盘中一度跌破4410美元/盎司，日内跌超9%。截至盘中，伦敦金报4450美元/盎 司，跌8.44%；COMEX黄金报4486美元/盎司，跌5.44%。 白银方面，现货白银一度跌超14%，截至盘中，伦敦银报72.8美元/盎司，跌14.52%；COMEX白银报 73.5美元/盎司，跌6.35%。 资深金融监管政策专家周毅钦称，金价大跌，前期创历史新高后投机资金集中获利了结，短期情绪踩 踏。后续金价将宽幅高位震荡，需待美联储政策信号明确后，市场情绪才能平复逐步企稳，当然中长期 仍具有上行弹性。 银价走势是否会随金价调整？盘和林认为，银价会随着金价调 ...