Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on global trade and the economy, highlighting the ongoing negotiations and the reactions from various countries and economic experts [1][5][9]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Negotiations - President Trump announced that over 150 countries may face a tariff increase of 10% to 15% if they do not reach favorable trade agreements with the U.S. [1] - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various trade partners, with specific rates for countries like Japan (25%), Thailand (36%), and Canada (35%) [3][5]. - The European Union has prepared a countermeasure list worth €72 billion, including products like Boeing aircraft and automobiles, in response to the proposed tariffs [5][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Financial markets showed a muted response to the tariff announcements, with slight increases in major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1]. - Economic data indicates rising inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 2.7% year-on-year in June, suggesting that tariffs are contributing to upward price pressures [8]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that the tariff policies could disproportionately impact the least developed countries, predicting a potential 54% decline in exports for these economies [9]. Group 3: Expert Opinions on Negotiation Strategies - Experts suggest that the high-pressure negotiation tactics employed by the Trump administration may backfire, leading to distrust among trade partners and complicating future agreements [6]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies is causing businesses to hesitate in decision-making, which could further suppress international trade [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach or a strategy of lightly shorting on price increases. The macro - situation shows that the US PPI in June reached a nearly one - year low, with flat month - on - month growth. The tariff effect has not yet appeared. In terms of fundamentals, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while the supply of Philippine nickel ore is increasing but domestic port inventories are decreasing, leading to a tight raw material situation. On the smelting side, high raw material prices and falling nickel prices are causing losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts. On the demand side, stainless steel mills are reducing production due to compressed profits, and the demand for ternary batteries is decreasing despite the rising production and sales of new energy vehicles. Currently, supply and demand are both weak, domestic social inventories are rising significantly, and overseas inventories are accumulating again. Technically, the market is in a range - bound adjustment, and attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,880 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan. The 08 - 09 month contract spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,990 US dollars/ton, down 225 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 53,426 lots, down 702 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 16,072 lots, down 927 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, up 708 tons. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,047 tons (weekly), up 125 tons. The total LME nickel cancelled warrants are 10,038 tons, up 720 tons. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,958 tons, down 91 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1,650 yuan. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 120,250 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 570 yuan/ton, down 980 yuan. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 207.51 US dollars/ton, up 3.3 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons (weekly), up 24.65 million tons. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, down 5.44 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the US PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest year - on - year increase since September 2024. The month - on - month growth was 0%, lower than the expected 0.2%. - Trump said that the scale and trade volume of the countries receiving tariff letters are not large; the US and India are close to reaching an agreement; an agreement may be reached with the EU, and it is too early to discuss the prospects of the US - Canada agreement. Trump also said he plans to impose "slightly more than 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries. - Li Qiang said to study the implementation of key policies to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [3].

7月17日，睿远基金旗下由饶刚、侯振新管理的睿远稳进配置两年持有混合基金披露2025年二季报。报 告表示，依旧看好无风险利率低位的环境下性价比更占优的权益类资产，同时也积极看待债和股作为一 个有机整体相互配合对组合风险收益比的改善。 转债方面，在整体市场估值相对较高的背景下，赚"容易钱"的时候已经过去，二季度本基金进一步降低 了转债仓位，并收缩了持仓范围，现有持仓依旧以低估值的债性转债品种为主，当前阶段继续以自下而 上寻找低估结构性机会为主。 纯债方面，二季度主要的趋势性机会产生于季度初对等关税冲击下中长端收益率的快速下行，此后便延 续震荡至季末。本基金及时加仓了长端利率债，部分对冲了权益资产的波动，对于组合运行的平稳性做 出一定的正贡献。 展望后市，该报告表示，从经济视角来看，下半年挑战与机遇并存：来自于上半年抢出口和抢生产的效 应导致了需求的部分前置，上述动能回落后对于下半年需求侧形成一定压力，同时以旧换新政策对于消 费的拉动作用也将在下半年面临高基数的挑战；机遇则来自中美关税谈判进一步深入带来的税率下调可 能性，以及二季度就业数据逐步走弱后美国降息概率提升推动的全球流动性边际宽松。在以上国内外宏 观背景 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the EU is preparing to impose tariffs on US services as a response to the US's recent tariff announcements, escalating the trade conflict into the digital services sector [1][2][4] - The EU is considering a potential tariff list that includes fees on digital services, particularly targeting advertising revenue from US tech companies [2][3] - The EU's response is partly driven by the significant trade surplus the US enjoys in services, amounting to approximately $100 billion annually, making it a more vulnerable target for retaliation [3] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between the US and EU are currently at an impasse, with both sides expressing a willingness to retaliate if necessary [4] - EU officials are actively discussing the situation in Washington, indicating that there are still considerable differences between the two parties [4] - The EU is open to accepting a 10% tariff but seeks to reduce the 25% tariff on automobiles and secure guarantees on future exemptions for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides trading strategies based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each metal [2][8][17]. - For each metal, the analysis includes market review (both futures and spot markets), relevant news, logical analysis of market movements, and corresponding trading strategies [2][8][17]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, with SHFE copper index reducing positions by 1,809 lots to 497,000 lots. In the spot market, copper prices declined in East, South, and North China, with different trends in spot premiums [2]. - **Important News**: Rumors of Powell's dismissal caused market volatility. In May 2025, global refined copper supply had a surplus of 84,200 tons. Peru lifted a two - week blockade on a major copper transport route. Antofagasta's copper production increased 11% year - on - year in H1 2025 [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff is due on August 1st. LME copper inventory is increasing. The domestic smelter output will remain high in July and August. Market purchasing is mainly for immediate needs and in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range [14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3,089 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 14,701 lots to 407,500 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - **Important News**: National unified market construction was emphasized. There were spot transactions in different regions. Alumina inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 3.188 million tons this week [9][10]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production capacity is stable, but output is rising. The supply - demand pattern will shift from tight balance to structural surplus in July. The import window around 3,200 yuan is the upper pressure for price rebound [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range. For now, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 25 yuan to 20,455 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 5,825 lots to 633,800 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. There were rumors about Powell's dismissal. The decline in housing completion area in June narrowed [17][18]. - **Logical Analysis**: Macro - events may cause overseas aluminum price fluctuations. Fundamentals have negative feedback. Aluminum consumption in the off - season may not be too weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19,845 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 106 lots to 9,969 lots. Spot prices were stable [23]. - **Important News**: In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to May, with a theoretical loss of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply is stable, but demand is weak. Aluminum alloy futures prices will mainly follow the cost and aluminum price trends [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure at high levels. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc 2509 rose 0.55% to 22,120 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE zinc index decreasing by 8,334 lots to 223,300 lots. Spot market transactions were mainly for immediate needs, with weak premiums [28]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 93,500 tons. Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal production in Q2 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: Domestic zinc supply is increasing, and consumption is in the off - season, with inventory piling up. Zinc prices may be under pressure [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to macro - sentiment and capital - side influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Long - term, short positions can be taken on price rebounds. Buy put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: SHFE lead 2508 fell 0.3% to 16,875 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE lead index increasing by 3,476 lots to 100,000 lots. Spot market transactions were not optimistic [33]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 69,000 tons. Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [34]. - **Logical Analysis**: Secondary lead production is in the red, and domestic primary lead smelting has maintenance in July. The lead - battery peak season is approaching, with improving consumption [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try long positions with a small position considering secondary lead cost support and peak - season expectations. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main SHFE nickel contract NI2509 fell 740 yuan to 119,970 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 4,627 lots. Spot premiums showed different trends [40]. - **Important News**: In May 2025, global nickel supply had a surplus of 40,800 tons. From January to May 2025, the surplus was 165,300 tons. Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns about US tariffs resurfaced. Refined nickel supply and demand are weak in the off - season, with stable and slightly increasing inventory. Prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will decline with fluctuations. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [43][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract rose 40 yuan to 12,730 yuan/ton, with index positions decreasing by 776 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48]. - **Important News**: A nickel - iron factory in East China sold nickel - iron. National stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [49]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless - steel demand is not optimistic, with high inventory pressure. The cost has increased, and prices will oscillate at a high level [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level. Wait and see for arbitrage [51][52]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices were stable [54][55]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon and its derivatives [56][58]. - **Logical Analysis**: Leading manufacturers' production decreased by 20,000 tons in July. If leading manufacturers do not resume production, the supply - demand will be balanced. Prices may be strong in the short - term [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - term long - bias view. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage strategy. There is no option strategy [60]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract rose 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A photovoltaic project's component procurement bid was announced [62]. - **Logical Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be transmitted downstream. Market sentiment is positive, and prices may be strong in the short - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will be strong in the short - term [65]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,640 yuan to 67,960 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 17,801 lots and Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) warehouse receipts decreasing by 416 to 10,239 tons. Spot prices were stable [66]. - **Important News**: Three Australian lithium mines have shut down. Zangge Mining's lithium - related subsidiary stopped production [67]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. Demand in July is not weak. Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may decline in Q4 [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [71].

"关税效应开始显现了！" 《今日美国报》报道截图 如果说5月2.4%的同比CPI涨幅被不少人认为尚属"温和"的话，那么6月的CPI可谓是揭去面纱露出真容。 有经济学家指出，由于多数企业在白宫宣布"对等关税"前抢先进口货物增加了库存，5月物价压力尚不明显。但随着库存减少，通胀会从6月开始升温，且一 直持续到今年下半年。 在获悉美国最新通胀数据后，多家外媒纷纷发出这一惊呼。 自上而下依次是法新社、美联社、英国广播公司的报道标题截图 根据美国劳工统计局15日发布的报告，美国6月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，显著高于5月的2.4%，也高于市场预期，为2月以来最大同比涨幅。 这也应了许多专家的预测：美国的关税政策推升了物价。 路透社报道截图 就连总统的盟友也承认…… 美联储16日发布的经济状况"褐皮书"称，从5月下旬到7月初，全美各地物价均有所增长。许多企业正通过涨价或收取附加费将至少部分成本上涨转嫁给消费 者。 6月CPI数据也显示，一些容易受到关税影响的特定产品价格上涨更为明显。《纽约时报》称，这说明美国政府的高额关税已经开始给消费者的钱包带来压 力。 《纽约时报》报道截图 尽管如此，白宫仍试图淡化最新 ...

据新华社，当地时间7月16日，美国总统特朗普表示，白宫将向150多个国家/地区发出信函，警告其若 未能与美国达成更有利的贸易协议，这些国家可能面临10%至15%的关税上调，信函将说明适用的关税 税率。 特朗普补充道，所有收到通知的国家"情况都会是一样的"，这些贸易伙伴"并非主要经济体，且贸易规 模相对有限"。 金融市场对此反应相对平淡。当日收盘数据显示，纳斯达克指数微涨0.25%，标普500指数上升0.32%， 道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅为0.53%。 全球经济咨询公司BCA研究首席全球策略师贝瑞钦（Peter Berezin）在研讨会上对第一财经记者表示， 市场尚未充分计入潜在关税政策带来的负面冲击，因为当前市场并不预期这些关税会真正实施。 "股票市场并不擅长为尾部风险定价。如果某件事的发生概率只有5%到10%，市场通常会忽略；但当概 率上升到30%或40%时，市场会突然高度关注，呈现非线性反应。如果情况继续发展，比如欧洲开始报 复性关税，或者市场意识到特朗普需要这些关税来增加财政收入，且对大多数国家征收20%-25%的关 税，那么股票市场可能会出现显著下跌。"他称。 胡捷说："关税上调并不意味着谈判窗口的关闭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market shows that the spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, with some shipping companies slightly reducing the freight rate in late July. The EC market generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August. The dry - bulk shipping market has ended its three - week decline, with the freight rates of large - sized ships expected to stop falling and recover, and medium - sized ships' freight rates expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The oil tanker transportation market's freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical conflict premiums, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs further attention [4][24][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The spot freight rate is reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced the freight rate in late July. The EC market is volatile. On July 14, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week. The SCFI European line on July 11 was 2099 dollars/TEU, down 0.1% week - on - week. Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1 [4]. - In June, China's exports to the US were 381.7 billion dollars, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant month - on - month improvement. Exports to ASEAN were 581.9 billion dollars, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were 492.2 billion dollars, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. Logic Analysis - Spot freight rates vary among shipping companies. The OA alliance's freight rates remain high. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but tariff policies may affect the shipping rhythm. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively. July is a period of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1, and additional tariffs may impact China's exports and re - export trade [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile, pay attention to tariff and geopolitical dynamics [9]. - Arbitrage: Roll - over operation of the 10 - 12 spread [10]. Industry News - The White House economic advisor said Trump received trade agreement proposals and may impose additional tariffs if not improved. The EU extended the suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs to early August. Trump announced additional tariffs on Mexico, the EU, etc. The US and India are negotiating a trade agreement to reduce India's tariffs to below 20%. There are developments in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [11][13][14]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize ship freight index rose 440 points or about 26.4% to 2104 points, with the daily average profit increasing by 3654 dollars to 17453 dollars. The Panamax ship freight index rose 137 points or 8% to 1860 points, with the daily average profit rising by 1236 dollars to 16743 dollars. The Supramax ship freight index rose 37 points or 3.1% to 1219 points [20]. - The spot freight rates of Capesize ships' iron ore routes increased. The weekly freight rates of coal and bauxite routes of Capesize ships and coal and grain routes of Panamax ships also increased. From July 7 - 13, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2987.1 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments increasing [22][23]. Logic Analysis - The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The Capesize ship market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased shipping inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax ship market's freight rates continued to rise due to strong coal and grain transportation demand and tight shipping capacity. The freight rates of large - sized ships are expected to stop falling and recover, and medium - sized ships' freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [24]. Industry News - Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, Brazil, and the EU starting from August 1. Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships. The coal export volume of Newcastle Port in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 Chinese ports decreased [25][26]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical conflict premiums, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs attention [28]. Industry News - Trump's dissatisfaction with Putin may lead to more sanctions on Russia, affecting oil prices. The domestic refined oil retail price may be reduced. OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, and the demand in the third quarter is expected to be strong [30].

Group 1 - President Trump indicated that the U.S. may implement previously communicated tariff rates on Japan and is close to reaching a trade agreement with India, while a deal with Europe is also possible [1][2] - The U.S. has reached agreements with Indonesia and is finalizing a deal with Vietnam, which has alleviated market concerns about escalating trade wars, leading to a rise in major U.S. stock indices [1] - Trump announced that tariffs on all imports from Indonesia will be set at 19%, and he plans to impose tariffs of over 10% on smaller countries, potentially affecting over 150 minor trade partners [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods unless a trade agreement is reached, with the tariff set to take effect on August 1 [6][8] - Japan's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, raising concerns about a technical recession, with a notable 11.4% drop in exports to the U.S. [11][12] - The automotive sector is a critical point in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, with potential tariffs posing a significant risk to Japan's economy, estimated to lose up to 13 trillion yen, which is over 2% of its GDP [12][14]

Group 1 - The EU is preparing a list of potential tariffs and export control measures against the US services sector as a retaliatory action following failed trade negotiations [2][3] - The EU Commission is compiling this list in response to President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1 [3] - The proposed measures will target not only US tech companies but also include additional actions beyond the existing proposal against $720 billion worth of US imports, which includes tariffs on Boeing aircraft, cars, and bourbon whiskey [3] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that if the average tariff rate on EU goods reaches 35%, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, it could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [4] - This reduction could deplete much of the already limited growth in the Eurozone and may lead the European Central Bank to further lower its deposit rate from the current 2% [4] - A previous estimate from the German Economic Institute suggested that tariffs of 20% to 50% could result in economic losses exceeding €200 billion for Germany by 2028 [4]