服务价格通常反映劳动力成本和内部需求，是通胀"黏性"的来源。当前其涨势降温，意味着内生价格压 力正在减弱。 能源价格仍在下行，油价低位与欧元走强共同降低进口能源成本，对整体通胀形成持续拖累。食品价格 则与整体趋势不同，涨幅略有扩大，其中生鲜产品价格由此前下降转为上涨。这说明家庭日常支出感受 未必完全同步于宏观通胀放缓。 从欧洲比较口径看，法国通胀已处于低位，而德国通胀仍在2%以上，差距明显。当前担忧已从"通胀过 高"转向"通胀是否过度回落"。若价格涨幅持续走低，企业利润和投资可能受到挤压，叠加欧元走强， 对出口型经济体带来压力。 法国通胀在2026年初明显放缓。法国国家统计与经济研究所Insee初步数据显示，1月CPI同比上涨 0.3%，创下2020年底以来最低水平，环比价格出现下降。打折季延长拉低了商品价格，但更关键的是 服务价格涨幅放缓与能源价格持续下行。食品价格则小幅回升，显示生活必需品压力尚未完全消散。法 国通胀节奏已明显低于德国，欧洲央行正密切关注物价是否出现过度回落风险。 本轮通胀骤降首先与冬季打折有关。1月制成品价格降幅扩大，服装和鞋类是主要因素。今年打折季覆 盖时间更长，统计期内包含的打折天数 ...

一边是黄金白银铜暴涨，几乎让人觉得美元即将变成废纸，恶性通胀立马就到。 一边是国内 房地产，菜粕，豆粕，生猪，螺纹这些大宗低位徘徊，又是一副通缩的样子。 难道真的是和 国际挂钩的商品通胀，只能国内流通的商品通缩？ 就好比豪宅抢购，刚需房跌成狗无人问 津？ 真是冰火两重天。 岁神 过往经验来看贵金属有色的上升传到到CPI会有半年到一年的滞后呈现螺旋上升的状态。现在 国内的通缩好比在病房挂水，下半年可能直接从病房拖到KTV通宵蹦迪。风浪越大鱼越贵今 年的市场波动率可能超出所有人的预期。 AC米蘭 这波牛市的主线就是"通胀平权"：海外的通胀通过某种路径传导到国内。 金银铜：最直接的，可以把这些玩意直接带到外面卖，享受外面的通胀，所以价格 传导最直接； CPO/家电/外贸：通过将国内产品出口到外面卖，享受外面的通胀； 芯片牛市：国际产品受通胀/关税涨价，国产替代品同样可以享受涨价。 相反地，那些纯本地化的消费品就比较惨，比如白酒、面包、饭店、猪肉。这些玩意几乎纯 内需，无法享受比价通胀。 那个孩子 慢慢来，不要急，都会轮动到的。 市场流传的说法：大宗商品的涨价顺序通常遵循"金融属性→工业属性→能源消费属性→民生 刚需 ...

2026年伊始，全球市场见证了一场惊人的金属狂欢，这不仅是资产价格的重估，更是一个被市场严重低 估的宏观通胀信号。巴克莱最新研报指出，通胀市场目前对金属价格暴涨的风险定价过低。 据追风交易台，1月3日，巴克莱认为，如果金属价格出现持续性的10%的上涨冲击，将在两年内推高名 义CPI约0.3个百分点，推高核心CPI约0.2个百分点。虽然直接传导效应看似温和，但在当前甚至出现白 银暴涨150%的极端行情下，这种累积效应不容忽视。 目前的市场叙事被原油价格的下跌所迷惑，导致通胀掉期和远期市场未能充分计入金属带来的上行风 险。对于投资者而言，这意味着当前的通胀对冲成本可能被低估，通胀预期的分布正在发生实质性右移 （向更高通胀偏移）。 金属狂潮：2026年的开局暴击 2026年开年至今，基本金属和贵金属市场并未如传统预期般运行，而是上演了一场全面且剧烈的反弹， 推动多个板块逼近或突破历史高点。自2025年1月1日以来，白银即便在近期大幅抛售之后，涨幅仍超过 150%；黄金上涨80%；锡上涨60%；铜上涨50%；铝上涨20%。 巴克莱指出，这种价格行为的背景极其复杂，包括外国储备管理者的偏好转移、金融条件的宽松、对美 元 ...

新华财经北京2月4日电本周澳储行如期加息后，市场预期其将进一步收紧货币政策。受此影响，澳元日内延续强势，一度逼近三年高点0.7094，目 前交投于0.7015附近。 澳储行周二宣布加息以抑制通胀反弹，并预计通胀率至2028年中期才能回归目标区间中点。市场押注该央行今年还将累计加息40个基点，其中5月 加息概率已升至约80%。澳储行行长米歇尔·布洛克避免提供明确的前瞻指引，但强调其遏制通胀的决心。瑞银经济学家指出，央行自身预测显示 通胀在未来一至两年内难以回到目标水平。 澳大利亚四大银行中的澳洲国民银行与高盛集团均预测，澳储行将在5月再次加息，使现金利率升至4.1%。澳洲国民银行经济学家Sally Auld维持 其年内两次加息的预测。高盛经济学家Andrew Boak指出，尽管行长未提供明确的前瞻指引，但新闻发布会上的措辞结合最新的宏观经济预测修 订，表明此次加息并非孤立的"微调"，而是一个加息周期的开始。 由于澳储行展现出鹰派倾向，利率定价中包含了更多的加息风险，澳元显然获得了更多动能。澳元兑美元重新向上周触及的三年高位0.7094发起冲 击，下方关键支撑位于0.6908。澳元兑日元汇率一度升至109.44， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh's appointment as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, questioning whether he will adopt a hawkish stance on inflation or align with political pressures from Trump [2][3][5]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Views - Martin Wolf highlights Warsh's past statements and recent shifts in his positions to gauge future monetary policy directions [4]. - Warsh is characterized as a strong advocate for hard currency, expressing concerns about the Fed's credibility and independence in his 2010 speech [7][8]. - He emphasized that the Fed's independence should only apply to monetary policy, not regulatory or consumer protection roles [9]. Group 2: Critique of Current Fed Policies - In a 2025 speech, Warsh criticized the Fed for failing to maintain price stability and contributing to explosive federal spending [11][12]. - He warned against the dangers of fiscal dominance, where the central bank becomes the ultimate arbiter of fiscal policy, which he views as a significant risk [12]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Implications - The article raises questions about Trump's choice of Warsh, suggesting that Trump may appreciate Warsh's critical stance on the Fed's expansionary policies [14]. - Wolf notes that Warsh's recent conclusion that inflation is no longer a threat represents a significant shift from his earlier views during the 2010 recession [15]. Group 4: Potential Risks and Consequences - Wolf warns that Warsh's leadership could lead to another financial crisis due to the inherent contradictions in policy, such as fiscal expansion coupled with attempts to maintain monetary discipline [24]. - The article concludes that the market requires a Fed Chair who can resist political pressures, contrasting Warsh with the current chair, Powell, who has demonstrated independence [26].

（记者 曾健辉） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——特朗普的"完美人选"颠覆美联储？解码凯文·沃什的"新政构想"：左手放水 右手抽水，要靠AI驯服通胀，拒做美债"大买家" 每经AI快讯，盛新锂能2月4日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告日，公司及控股子公司实际发生的对外担 保余额为人民币约45.44亿元，占2024年12月31日经审计归属于母公司净资产的37.78%。 ...

Group 1 - The company Dongxin Peace announced on February 4 that it received a notice regarding the completion of the share reduction plan from shareholders Chen Zongchao and Huang Xiaopeng [1] - As of now, the reduction period disclosed in the pre-announcement has expired, and the shareholders have collectively reduced their holdings by approximately 200,000 shares [1]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——特朗普的"完美人选"颠覆美联储？解码凯文·沃什的"新政构想"：左手放水 右手抽水，要靠AI驯服通胀，拒做美债"大买家" 高级管理人员庄小正先生计划在本公告披露日起十五个交易日后的三个月内（即从2026年3月5日起至 2026年6月4日止），以集中竞价交易方式减持不超过约65万股（占公司总股本比例为0.33%）。 每经AI快讯，ST路通2月4日晚间发布公告称，特定股东萍乡汇德企业管理中心（有限合伙）计划在本 公告披露日起十五个交易日后的三个月内（即从2026年3月5日起至2026年6月4日止），以集中竞价交易 方式减持不超过200万股（占公司总股本比例为1%），以大宗交易方式减持不超过400万股（占公司总 股本比例为2%）。 （记者 张明双） ...

Group 1 - The company Baolidi announced that director Yuan Xiaofeng plans to reduce his holdings by up to 165,000 shares, which represents 0.0923% of the total share capital, within three months after the announcement date [1] - Yuan Xiaofeng currently holds approximately 680,000 shares, accounting for 0.3796% of the company's total share capital [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The general trend of inflation narrative remains unchanged, and the current sharp decline in precious metals does not change this trend [1][2] - Domestic policies clearly promote inflation, and the global geopolitical situation remains tense, which may drive up inflation [2] - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations, and different commodity sectors have different investment opportunities and risks [3] Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and the market priced in the "review of Fed independence", causing silver to fall by over 30% and gold to fall by 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980 [1] - The core driver overseas is Trump's policies, with the core appeal of nominating Warsh being to cut interest rates, lower credit card rates, and boost the real estate market [1] - Fed Governor Milan said the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year [1][5] Inflation and Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized measures to boost consumption and regulate "involution - style" competition [2] - On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [2] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued 5 important policy documents to support various types of loans [2] - On February 3, 2026, the Central No. 1 Document was released to promote rural revitalization [2][5] Geopolitical and Trade - Trump said negotiations on Greenland are about to reach an agreement [2] - On February 2, Trump announced that the US and India had reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18%, and India reducing tariffs and non - tariff barriers to zero and promising to buy over $500 billion worth of US energy products [2][5] - Trump said the US is negotiating with Iran, and the Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor said a "negotiation framework" is taking shape [3][5] Commodity Analysis - The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unrelieved, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment [3] - OPEC+ plans to keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, with Trump hoping to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [3] - In the chemical sector, methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [3] - For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases; for the black sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on precious metals at low prices [4]