Group 1: Tariff Impact on Oil and Trade - The shipment of Urals crude oil to India dropped to an average of 400,000 barrels per day in August, down nearly two-thirds from the previous average of 1.18 million barrels per day, indicating the effectiveness of U.S. pressure on India regarding Russian oil purchases [2] - The U.S. has accepted Brazil's request to negotiate over the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, suggesting potential flexibility in tariff enforcement [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that the full implementation of tariffs could have profound effects on inflation and global supply chains, with the Federal Reserve indicating that inflation risks may outweigh employment risks [3] - Citigroup estimates that U.S. companies are currently absorbing 60%-70% of tariff costs, but this may not be sustainable as companies are expected to increasingly pass these costs onto consumers [3] - Goldman Sachs reports that as of June, U.S. consumers had already borne 22% of tariff costs, with this figure projected to rise to 67% by October as more companies transfer costs [3] Group 3: Federal Budget and Debt Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its projections, indicating that the U.S. federal budget deficit will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade due to tax and tariff policies [4] - The CRFB warns that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 118% to 120% in a baseline scenario and to 134% in a more adverse scenario by 2035 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to contract, with A-shares surging and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 leading the gains. The market is waiting for the further development of the relationships among the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, as well as the guidance from Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [2][5]. - The prices of precious metals rebounded due to increased market uncertainty. Copper prices are waiting for a driving force. Aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a limited range. Alumina prices face increasing pressure. Zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering. Lead prices are weakly oscillating. Tin prices are in a tangled state. Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating widely. Nickel prices are oscillating within a range. Crude oil prices are oscillating. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. Palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][19][20][21][22][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals. Most people believe that inflation risks are higher than employment risks, with differences focusing on the impact of tariffs and interest rate levels. Some are worried about the instability of long - term inflation expectations and the fragility of the US Treasury market, and also concerned about the potential risks of stablecoins. Trump pressured to remove "dissidents" from the Fed, and the independence of the Fed is under threat. The market risk appetite continues to decline, with the US dollar index oscillating weakly, the 10Y US Treasury yield slightly declining, and US stocks continuing to fall. Gold, copper, and oil all rebounded. Attention is paid to the US August PMI tonight [2]. - Domestic: Leaders conducted intensive research and made speeches. A - shares rebounded after Wednesday's oscillation, with the trading volume shrinking to 2.45 trillion yuan. The market risk appetite recovered, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose by more than 3%, and sectors such as GPU and liquor led the gains. The bond market fell again as the stock market strengthened. The short - term risk appetite may be approaching the peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices both closed higher. Trump's call for Fed Governor Cook to resign increased market uncertainty, the US dollar index turned down, and precious metal prices rebounded. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The meeting between the leaders of the US, Ukraine, and Russia cooled down. Investor risk aversion increased. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated narrowly, and LME copper sought support at the 9700 level. The macro situation shows that the Fed is facing a dilemma between rising inflation and a deteriorating employment market. The market is highly concerned about Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday. The CME observation tool shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 85%. In terms of industry, First Quantum has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia. Short - term copper prices are expected to maintain an oscillating state waiting for a driving force [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,535 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,577/ton, up 0.37%. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The short - term attitude of the Fed needs to be further observed. Fundamentally, aluminum prices have slightly declined in the past two days. At the transition between the off - season and peak season, downstream restocking at low prices has slightly improved, and the spot discount has converged. Technically, the downward adjustment range of aluminum prices is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and the warehouse receipt inventory continues to accumulate, so the price pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the changes in production capacity [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and slightly shifted upwards at night, and LME zinc closed higher. In July, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, while the import of refined zinc met expectations. Currently, raw materials are abundant. As zinc prices fall to near the previous low, downstream price fixing at low points increases. Short - term zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering, waiting for the guidance from Powell's speech on Friday [11][12]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly both during the day and at night, and LME lead closed higher. Globally, the high visible inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. Domestically, the improvement in consumption falls short of expectations, and the production side is relatively stable. Lead prices lack the driving force to rise but also have no continuous downward momentum due to cost support. The fundamentals maintain a state of weak supply and demand [13][14]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and moved horizontally at night, and LME tin oscillated. In July, Myanmar's tin mines resumed production, but China's imports from Myanmar decreased instead. Indonesia's exports of refined tin decreased month - on - month, and overseas supplies remained tight. In the short term, the low LME inventory is difficult to reverse. Near Powell's speech, the expectation of a rate cut in September is volatile, and tin prices are in a tangled state [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated weakly. Fundamentally, the supply side is showing a marginal loosening trend, while the demand side has limited consumption growth. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. The domestic anti - involution sentiment has cooled down. Short - term futures prices are expected to enter a weakly oscillating state [16][17]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate lithium was weakly running, and the spot price was stable. An upstream salt factory in Jiangxi announced the resumption of production, but the actual output in August is expected to be limited. The core factor driving the wide - range price fluctuations may be the market's lack of confidence in the supply contraction promoted by policies. Short - term lithium prices may fluctuate widely due to emotional disturbances [19]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that the economic outlook remains pessimistic. Under the expectation of abundant nickel ore supply, the price is still strong, but nickel iron plants are under cost pressure. The refined nickel market is warming up. Nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, and attention should be paid to the rebound at low levels [20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Wednesday, crude oil oscillated and strengthened. The market is waiting for the progress of the tripartite peace talks, and the market disturbances are relatively limited. The significant inventory reduction by the EIA has temporarily boosted market sentiment. However, the bearish fundamentals and the expectation of cooling geopolitical risks remain unchanged, and oil prices maintain an oscillating and wait - and - see state [21]. 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 01 contract fell, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose. The second - day inspection results showed that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska was good, while that in Indiana was slightly lower than the same period last year. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to continue, and the yield per unit may be lowered. US soybean growers hope to reach a trade agreement with China. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate [22][23][24]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 01 contract fell. The latest data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil is good, which supports the price and limits the decline. The US's exemption obligation for small refineries may be introduced earlier than expected, and US soybean oil oscillated and fell. Short - term palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [25][26].

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.04% to 44,938.31 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.24% to 6,395.78 points, marking its fourth consecutive decline, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.67% to 21,172.86 points [4][5][6] - Large technology stocks experienced a widespread decline, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index falling by 1.07% [8] Sector Highlights - Travelers Group led the Dow with a 2.06% increase, followed by Walmart at 1.27% and Caterpillar at 1.06% [5][6] - In the technology sector, Apple fell by 1.97%, Amazon by 1.84%, and Tesla by 1.64%, leading the decline among the major tech companies [8][9] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed a slight increase against the market trend, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 0.33% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up by 0.01% [10][11] - Notable gainers included Zhengye Biology, which surged by 24.87%, and NEXT Technology, which rose by 12.62% [12] Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the July 29-30 meeting, indicating that nearly all decision-makers supported maintaining interest rates without cuts, with only two dissenting [15][16] - Discussions highlighted that overall inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation trends [18] - The labor market was noted to be close to full employment, with low unemployment rates, although some indicators suggested potential weakness in labor demand [19] Economic Outlook - Participants expressed concerns about economic uncertainty, with risks related to inflation and employment being emphasized [19][21] - The Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain data-driven, with a focus on the impacts of tariffs on economic activity and inflation [22] Political Commentary - Former President Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing concerns over her financial history and its implications for her role [23][24]

普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci报告表示，在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲之际，美联储主席鲍威尔可能 会寻求为未来几次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议保留最大的灵活性，并强调政策路径将取决于通胀和劳 动力市场数据。在9月17日的美联储会议之前，还将公布一份就业报告和一份CPI报告。如果通胀数据 意外大大强于预期或劳动力市场强劲反弹，那么下一次会议可能不会降息。如果8月份就业人数增幅放 缓至每月50,000人以下，且失业率上升，则可能会出现降息50个基点的偏宽松结果。 ...

美元霸权的黄昏：特朗普降息梦碎与美联储的独立危机 一场关于降息的权力游戏，正在华盛顿上演，而美元霸权的丧钟，或许已经敲响。 曾几何时，特朗普政府为了刺激经济，可谓是"八仙过海，各显神通"。财政部长贝努特高调喊话，暗示 降息可期；总统特朗普更是语出惊人，狮子大开口，要求大幅降息。然而，美联储官员深夜一盆冷水， 彻底浇灭了白宫的降息美梦。 为了推动降息，特朗普政府可谓是无所不用其极。他们先是突袭美联储大楼，祭出所谓的"审计报告"， 逼问美联储主席鲍威尔。特朗普甚至将工程问题与利率问题生硬地联系起来，声称"降息1个点能省3000 亿利息！"这背后，是特朗普政府精打细算的算盘。美国国债总额高达37万亿美元，每年仅利息支出就 高达1.2万亿美元。如果利率真的降到1%，白宫每年就能省下数千亿美元，用于修边境墙、填补医保漏 洞，甚至为中期选举提供资金。 然而，美联储内部却出现了"叛变"迹象。曾经是铁杆鹰派的美联储副主席鲍曼，一反常态地支持9月启 动三次降息。她与理事沃勒在7月会议上投下反对票，逼宫鲍威尔的架势，宛如一出华尔街版的《纸牌 屋》。更令人玩味的是，鲍曼和沃勒都是由特朗普亲自任命的。 降息固然美好，但通胀问题却如影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with yields on 10-year and ultra-long government bonds reaching multi-decade highs due to ongoing concerns about fiscal expansion and inflation [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.61%, the highest since October 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield reached 2.655%, marking the highest level since 1999 [1]. - The 30-year bond yield climbed to 3.18%, nearing the historical high of 3.2% set in July [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The steepening of the yield curve reflects market worries about Japan's future fiscal discipline, especially after the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections in July [1]. - Investors anticipate potential new fiscal stimulus measures from the government, which could lead to a significant increase in bond issuance [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Persistent inflation pressures are negatively impacting ultra-long bonds and increasing the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][7]. - Recent data indicates that aggressive traders are growing more confident about a potential rate hike in October, suggesting that the market may fully price in this expectation [7]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - There has been a notable decline in demand from overseas investors, which is exacerbating upward pressure on yields [1][8]. - In July, net purchases of Japanese government bonds with maturities over 10 years by overseas investors fell to 480 billion yen (approximately $3.3 billion), only one-third of the amount purchased in June [8]. - The sharp decline in overseas investment raises concerns about the stability of the long-end of the yield curve [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian annual inflation rate decreased from 1.9% to 1.7% in July, primarily due to a 16.1% year-on-year decline in gasoline prices, while core inflation indicators remain strong [1] Inflation Data - The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, with the annual inflation rate falling below the Bank of Canada's target midpoint of 2% [1] - Excluding gasoline prices, the July CPI increased by 2.5% [1] - Food prices rose by 3.3%, and housing costs, which are the largest component of the CPI, increased by 3%, marking the first rise since February of the previous year [1] Core Inflation Indicators - The CPI-median increased from 3% to 3.1%, while the CPI-trim remained stable at 3% [1] - Despite the annual inflation rate being below the target range, 37.3% of the CPI basket saw price increases exceeding 3% [1] Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada on September 17 is estimated at 32% according to money market data [1] Currency Movement - The USD/CAD exchange rate was reported at 1.3881, with an increase of 0.08%, breaking through resistance levels above 1.38 [1] - The upward momentum of the USD/CAD pair is supported by strong daily and intraday trend indicators, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with semiconductor stocks performing strongly. However, the four major stock index futures contracts declined, and it is expected that the market will enter a high - level shock to wait for the decision of the direction. [2][3][4] - The sentiment in the bond market is fragile, and the performance of treasury bond futures was weak in the afternoon, affected by the stock market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider a curve - steepening strategy. [5][6] - For precious metals, due to the divergence among Fed officials and political pressure on some officials, investors' concerns have reignited, and precious metals prices rebounded. It is recommended to use bull - spread strategies for gold and maintain a low - buying mindset for silver. [8][9][10] - The container shipping futures are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract. [13] - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are mainly in a state of shock, affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory levels. [14][17][22] - The steel market maintains a shock pattern, with the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil showing differentiation. Iron ore and coking coal prices will follow the trend of steel products, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. [41][43][46] - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, while the prices of live pigs are affected by factors such as consumption and the epidemic, and the corn market is under supply pressure and shows a weak trend. [54][56][61] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market opened low and rose high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04%. The four major stock index futures contracts declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated neutrally. [2][3] - **News**: In July, China's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, and overseas news mainly involved the US's stance on Ukraine and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs. [3][4] - **Funding**: On August 20, the trading volume of A - shares decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 49.75 billion yuan. [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions. [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose. [5] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 49.75 billion yuan. The inter - bank liquidity became balanced in the afternoon. [5][6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term and consider a curve - steepening strategy. [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: The US and China had a good dialogue on economic and trade issues. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed internal differences, and there were political incidents involving Fed officials. [7][8] - **Market Performance**: Precious metals prices rebounded after a decline, with international gold rising 0.99% and international silver rising 1.41%. [9] - **Outlook and Suggestion**: There is still a demand for hedging in the market. It is recommended to use bull - spread strategies for gold and maintain a low - buying mindset for silver. [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows a decline in the European line index and an increase in the US - West line index. [12] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity has increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US is at a certain level. [12] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The spot price is in a downward phase, which may put pressure on the futures price. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract. [13] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the actual transaction was limited. [14] - **Macro**: The short - term trading focus is on the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the US inflation data affects the expectation. [14][17] - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrates increased slightly, and the production of refined copper increased in July. It is expected to decrease slightly in August. [15] - **Demand**: The operating rate of copper rod processing showed a mixed trend, and the overall demand was resilient. [16] - **Inventory**: COMEX and domestic social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased. [16] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The copper price is mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract reference range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. [17] Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The spot price showed a north - south differentiation, with the north under pressure and the south supported. [17] - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in July, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. [18] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased. [18] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The market is in a state of slight surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [19] Aluminum - **Spot**: The average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium increased. [20] - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in July, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased. [20] - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly, but it is still in the off - season. [20] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. [21] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [22] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged. [23] - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased in July, and it is expected to remain stable in August. [23] - **Demand**: The demand was under pressure in July, and it is expected to improve marginally in late August. [23][24] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased. [23] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract reference range is 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. [24] Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the market trading was general. [25] - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increased in July. [26] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the spot premium was weak. [27] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased. [28] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [28] Tin - **Spot**: The price of 1 tin increased, and the market transaction was dull. [29] - **Supply**: The import of tin ore decreased in July, and the supply is difficult to improve in the short - term. [29] - **Demand**: The demand for solder decreased, and the overall demand is expected to be weak. [30] - **Inventory**: The LME inventory and social inventory decreased. [30] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The tin price is in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see. [31] Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel decreased. [31] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly. [32] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was general. [32] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. [32] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The nickel price is expected to adjust in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [33] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis increased. [34][35] - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferro - nickel were stable, and the price of ferro - chrome was expected to be strong. [35][37] - **Supply**: The planned production of stainless steel in August is expected to increase. [35] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt increased. [36] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. [37] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the transaction improved after the price decline. [38] - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate increased in July and is expected to increase in August. [39] - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. [39] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week. [40] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see and try to go long at low prices. [41] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The futures price first fell and then rose, and the basis strengthened. [41] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support is expected to weaken, and the profit of steel products decreased. [42] - **Supply**: The production of iron and steel increased in August, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in August - September. [42] - **Demand**: The overall demand for steel increased year - on - year, but the demand for rebar decreased this period. [42] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased this week. [43] - **View**: The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to wait and see. [43] Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders showed a mixed trend. [45] - **Futures**: The prices of iron ore futures contracts decreased. [45] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is provided. [45] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. [45] - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume decreased. [45] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased. [46] - **View**: The iron ore price is expected to follow the rebound of steel products, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. [46] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price declined, and the prices of some coal types were loosened. [47] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines showed a mixed trend, and the inventory adjustment slowed down. [47][48] - **Demand**: The coking production increased slightly, and the downstream demand for replenishment weakened. [48][49] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased. [49] - **View**: It is recommended to buy at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 long - spread arbitrage. [49] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price declined, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented, with the seventh - round initiated. [50][51] - **Profit**: The coking profit improved. [50] - **Supply**: The coking production increased slightly. [50] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for coke remained resilient, and the pig iron output is expected to decline slightly in August. [51] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coke decreased. [51] - **View**: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 long - spread arbitrage. [51][53] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The prices of soybean meal were stable to weak, and the prices of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [54] - **Fundamentals**: There were export sales reports of US soybeans, and the export volume forecasts of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal increased. [54][55] - **Market Outlook**: The long - term outlook for meal products is positive, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. [55][56] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated, and the market sentiment improved. [57] - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding showed a mixed trend, and the average slaughter weight increased. [57][58] - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty in the far - end market. [59] Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price of corn was generally weak, and the trading was light. [60] - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of corn in Guangdong Port and northern four ports decreased. [60][61] - **Market Outlook**: The corn market is under supply pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile. [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net daily injection of 497.5 billion yuan. The new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The central bank's monetary policy continues the loose thinking, which supports short - term Treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect will continue, and bond prices may continue to weaken. The cross - variety spread may also widen due to the resumption of VAT collection on government and financial bonds [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.19%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.7bp, DR007 rate rose 1.94bp, and GC007 rate rose 2.5bp [2] Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Chinese Treasury bonds varied. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1.7bp to 1.79%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.86bp [2] Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.4bp [2] Macroeconomic News - The central bank carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, and the new - period LPR remained unchanged. The People's Bank of China Shanghai Head Office put forward work requirements. The State Council Office forwarded the guidance on standardizing PPP projects. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and the UK's inflation accelerated [3] Industry Information - On August 20, most money - market interest rates increased. US Treasury bond yields mostly declined. The bond market was affected by multiple factors such as macro - news, economic data, and central bank operations [3]

Group 1 - International silver prices rose to $37.89 per ounce, up 1.41%, with a daily high of $37.93 and a low of $36.95, indicating a volatile market influenced by rising consumer prices due to tariff measures [1] - As of August 20, 2025, silver ETF holdings decreased to 15,305.76 tons, down by 33.90 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen to around 3%, with tariffs expected to further increase consumer prices, although the Federal Reserve views these tariff impacts as one-time adjustments [2][3] Group 2 - The current economic environment shows that inflation rates have exceeded the 2% target, with price pressures likely to increase in the coming months due to higher tariff costs being passed on by businesses [3] - The labor market is experiencing a slowdown in new population growth, which may limit the expected downward pressure on prices, despite a stable unemployment rate [3] - The silver market is currently in a weak downward trend, with support levels at $36.5 and resistance levels at $37.60 and $37.85, indicating potential future price movements [4]