交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 利多： 利空： 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国10月非农不发布，11月非农将在12月美联储会议下公布，金价冲高 回落；美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨2.52个基点报4.137%；美元指数涨0.53%报100.12，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1183；COMEX黄金期货涨0.29%报4078.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货937，现货934.7，基差-2.3，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，增加810千克；偏空 4 ...

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data release and its impact on the actual economy. The absence of October non - farm data and the Fed's divided views have cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are showing a marginal slowdown, and the policy support and its effectiveness are key concerns [1]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, with many opposing a December rate cut. The US October non - farm data is not released, and the November report is postponed, leading to a cooling of the rate - cut expectation. Overseas, focus on the impact of the government shutdown on the economy, and domestically, pay attention to policy support [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Affected by the non - farm data and the Fed's differences, the US dollar index is strong, and the rate - cut expectation has cooled. Follow US November economic data, the next Fed chair candidate, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange. The RMB may get some support from seasonal effects [2]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.12, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 7.07 [3]. - **Stock Index**: Nvidia's earnings exceeded expectations, which may drive up the domestic technology sector. The index style may switch to small - and medium - cap stocks in the short term. The index is expected to oscillate with upper pressure and lower support [3][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Although the A - share rebound and other factors have affected the bond market, the medium - term fundamentals still support it. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be established on dips [5][6]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures price oscillates, waiting for new drivers. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the short - term is expected to be weakly oscillating. Trend traders can wait and see, and arbitrage traders can take profit on the 12 - 02 reverse spread [7][8][9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The performance of different commodities varies. For precious metals, the short - term is affected by the unclear rate - cut prospect, while the medium - and long - term is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases. Other commodities are also influenced by their respective supply - demand, cost, and policy factors [12][15]. Summary by Directory - **Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)**: The rate - cut expectation has cooled. Focus on the US September non - farm employment report. In the short term, the price may continue to oscillate and adjust, and dips can be used to build long positions. The long - term price is expected to rise [12][13][15]. - **Copper**: The delay of non - farm employment data makes the copper price lack elasticity. The short - term is mainly about post - decline repair. Pay attention to the support at 86000 and the pressure at 87000. Downstream enterprises can use a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs [15][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - and long - term and oscillate in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weakly running, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the smelting end may reduce production in November. Observe the inventory changes and the bottom space at the end of the month [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for clear signals. The supply of nickel ore may be affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the demand for nickel - iron is weak. Stainless steel has high inventory and low demand [20][21]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating narrowly. Due to the shortage of concentrates, the supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about chasing high prices. The downstream replenishment willingness is low, and the upside space is doubtful. It is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips. Polysilicon has weak short - term fundamentals, and it is suitable to short on rallies [25][26]. - **Lead**: The bottom space is small. The supply is tight, and the import window is open. It is expected to oscillate [27][28]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The black metal market is affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, supply - demand relationships, and cost. The overall is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the risk of negative feedback [29]. Summary by Directory - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar's supply - demand balance is marginally improving, and hot - rolled coil has high inventory and needs to reduce production to destock. Pay attention to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [29][30]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and there is a shortage of deliverable products. Wait for the basis to be repaired and then consider shorting on rallies [31][33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi has loosened, and the short - term may face adjustment pressure. The medium - and long - term is supported by policies and winter storage demand. Consider building long positions when the price falls to the lower limit of the range [34][35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They continue to accumulate inventory. The demand is expected to decline, and they are expected to oscillate weakly [36][37]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The energy and chemical market is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Different products have different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has cooled. It is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 in the short - and medium - term. Pay attention to geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39][40][41]. - **LPG**: The cost fluctuates greatly, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The supply is slightly decreasing, the demand of PDH is in a loss state, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals are neutral to positive, but the valuation is high [42][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The aromatics blending logic is strengthened, and they are expected to oscillate strongly with the cost. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and macro - dynamics. The PTA processing fee can be operated within the range of 200 - 290 [44][47][48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Consider taking profit on short positions and switch to selling call options. The demand is expected to be stable in November and weaken seasonally in December. The supply may accumulate inventory, and the long - term is under pressure [49][50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract is expected to be weakly running. The port pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is recommended to hold short call options and conduct reverse spreads [51][52]. - **PP**: It is oscillating at the bottom. The supply pressure may be relieved if more devices stop, and the demand is good in the short term. It is not advisable to short further in the short term and can consider going long on dips [53][55]. - **PE**: The fundamental driving force is insufficient. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited in the long term. The downward space is limited, but the upward pressure exists [56][57]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly. Pure benzene may have more negative feedback, and styrene has high inventory and limited rebound height [58][59]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported by factors such as supply reduction and demand improvement [60][61][62]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is small. Pay attention to the winter storage willingness. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the long - term demand may be affected by seasonal factors [63][64][65]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is mainly cost - priced and has limited upward elasticity. Glass has high inventory and downward pressure. Caustic soda has high supply and weak demand in the long term [65][66][67]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: The futures price centers are moving down. Pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply, and offset paper is affected by tender prices [68][69]. - **Log**: Continue to pay attention to shorting opportunities and the 01 - 03 reverse spread. The spot price decline drives the futures price down, and the inventory is increasing [70][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have shown rapid rotation, with technology growth remaining the market's main theme. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips. In the bond market, the supply - demand pattern may improve in the fourth quarter, and it is expected to oscillate and recover. For various commodities, strategies vary based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [4][8]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: News includes diplomatic statements, potential mergers in the securities industry, changes in semiconductor intervention, and expected memory price increases. The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [2][3]. - **Strategy View**: After the previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, with technology growth as the main theme. The policy supports the capital market, and the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Wednesday's futures contract prices showed declines. There are upcoming treasury cash management deposit tenders, and the Japanese 10 - year bond yield reached a high. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection [5]. - **Strategy View**: The 10 - month economic data is weak, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, considering the supply - demand pattern, inflation expectations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Prices of gold and silver in domestic and overseas markets rose. The US 10 - year bond yield and the US dollar index are given. Fed officials' statements and meeting minutes influenced market expectations [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rebounded. LME and domestic warehouse inventory changes, price differentials, and import losses are presented [12]. - **Strategy View**: Despite geopolitical headwinds, copper prices are supported by tight raw material supply and improved spot conditions. Reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are given [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices stabilized and rose. Changes in inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [14]. - **Strategy View**: With relatively low overseas inventory and potential domestic inventory reduction, aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after oscillation. Reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum are given [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices showed changes. Inventory, positions, and price differentials at home and abroad are presented [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc ore is in short supply during the refinery's winter stockpiling. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices changed slightly. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: Lead raw materials are in short supply, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot prices, cost, and inventory changes are presented [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices are under pressure from fundamentals. Short - term decline space may be limited, and short - term trading strategies are recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply is affected by mine shortages, and demand has long - term support from emerging sectors [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Reference operating ranges are given [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. Futures contract prices and spot price changes are presented [22]. - **Strategy View**: The market is dominated by bulls. Attention should be paid to potential price fluctuations, and a reference operating range is given [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas mine prices may decline, and alumina has a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and a reference operating range is given [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. Spot prices, positions, and inventory changes are presented [26]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and prices are expected to continue to decline [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices stabilized. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [31]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices changed slightly. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [33]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is increasing, and demand has a marginal increase. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices fell. Inventory, positions, and spot price changes are presented [35][37]. - **Strategy View**: Glass supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [39]. - **Strategy View**: For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have different fundamentals and trading suggestions [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also changed. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [43][45]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon may have a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. Supply and demand factors, inventory, and spot prices are presented [48][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: A short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and a hedging suggestion is provided [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and related refined oil prices changed. Inventory changes are presented [53]. - **Strategy View**: Oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is suggested [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [55]. - **Strategy View**: High port inventory and supply - demand imbalance put pressure on prices. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [56]. - **Strategy View**: The market is sensitive to news. Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors are presented [58]. - **Strategy View**: Benzene supply is under pressure, and styrene prices may stop falling [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [60]. - **Strategy View**: Supply exceeds demand, and export expectations are weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [62]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is high, and inventory is expected to accumulate. A short - selling strategy is recommended [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [64]. - **Strategy View**: Supply may accumulate, and demand has limited improvement. Attention should be paid to potential upward trends [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [66]. - **Strategy View**: p - Xylene inventory may accumulate slightly in November. Attention should be paid to potential upward trends [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices changed. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [69]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [71]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply and demand factors are presented [75]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is expected to be high before the Spring Festival. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and an anti - arbitrage strategy is preferred [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply and demand factors are presented [77]. - **Strategy View**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. Supply and demand factors are presented [79]. - **Strategy View**: Import costs have a bottom, and meal prices are expected to oscillate [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil and fat prices changed. Supply and demand factors are presented [83]. - **Strategy View**: Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate, and a long - biased strategy can be considered if production declines [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Supply and demand factors are presented [85]. - **Strategy View**: Sugar prices are expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded slightly. Supply and demand factors are presented [88]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak demand and high supply [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Undergoing a period of fluctuating adjustment [2]. - Copper: Lacking a clear driving force, prices are oscillating [2]. - Zinc: LME inventories are accumulating [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventories are limiting price declines [2]. - Tin: Prices are falling from a high level [2]. - Aluminum: Trading within a range [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to face downward pressure [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is not expected to be significant [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 937.00, with a daily increase of 2.01%, and the night - session closing price was 935.42, up 0.53%. Gold T + D closed at 934.28, up 2.05% daily, and 934.44 at night, up 0.39%. Comex Gold 2512 closed at 4078.30, up 0.27% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 239,515, an increase of 2,600 from the previous day, and the open interest was 82,838, a decrease of 8,034 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 90,426 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day, and Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) was 37,224,744, a decrease of 93,766 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cryptocurrencies tumbled during the session. The Fed meeting minutes showed a significant divide, with many believing it's inappropriate to cut rates in December, and some worried about a disorderly stock - market decline [4][7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 12141, up 3.81% daily, and the night - session closing price was 12035.00, up 0.63%. Silver T + D closed at 12150, up 3.78% daily, and 12038 at night, up 0.33%. Comex Silver 2512 closed at 51.065, up 1.04% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 98,089, an increase of 22,238 from the previous day, and the open interest was 59,430, a decrease of 2,902 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 547,685 kilograms, a decrease of 15986 from the previous day, and Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) was 465,535,121, a decrease of 4,000,330 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including cryptocurrency drops and Fed meeting - related news [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,110, up 0.53% daily, and the night - session closing price was 86190, up 0.09%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 10,803, up 0.98% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 185,519, a decrease of 23,389 from the previous day, and the open interest was 527,120, an increase of 5,581. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading platform had a trading volume of 16,612, a decrease of 7,909, and an open interest of 317,000, a decrease of 2,389 [8]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 58,352, a decrease of 2,522 from the previous day, and LME Copper inventory was 157,875, an increase of 17,375. The cancellation - warrant ratio was 6.16%, a decrease of 0.19% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed meeting showed a divide on December rate - cut expectations. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons. China's copper product output in October 2025 decreased by over 10% month - on - month [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22420, up 0.49%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 2990.5, up 0.03% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 91247, a decrease of 2222, and the open interest was 67487, a decrease of 14839. The LME Zinc trading volume was 14603, an increase of 3454, and the open interest was 224451, a decrease of 3059 [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 75314, a decrease of 1473, and LME Zinc inventory was 45075, an increase of 1550 [11]. - **News**: A report warns that the AI bubble may burst in 6 - 12 months. Morgan Stanley believes the power - equipment bull market is in the early - to - mid - stage [12]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17250, up 0.12%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 2027, down 0.56% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 46208, a decrease of 8860, and the open interest was 63895, a decrease of 5231. The LME Lead trading volume was 8497, a decrease of 383, and the open interest was 172614, an increase of 9150 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 31206, a decrease of 1484, and LME Lead inventory was 264475, a decrease of 325 [14]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed meeting - related news [15]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 288,890, down 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 291,890, up 0.68%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 36,860, down 0.11% [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 67,408, a decrease of 10,882, and the open interest was 27,950, a decrease of 3,954. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading platform had a trading volume of 180, a decrease of 9, and an open interest of 13,988, an increase of 53 [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 6,062, a decrease of 37, and LME Tin inventory was 3,055, unchanged. The cancellation - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including cryptocurrency drops and Fed meeting - related news [19][20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21570, up 105 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2815, up 25. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2740, down 40. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20815, up 85 [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 202981, a decrease of 56481, and the open interest was 347833, a decrease of 8714. The LME Aluminum 3M trading volume was 22278, a decrease of 7841 [23]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: LME Aluminum cancellation - warrant ratio was 10.13%, up from 5.41%. The LME cash - 3M spread was - 28.05 [23]. - **News**: NVIDIA's revenue growth exceeded expectations. Fed Governor Milan called for reshaping bank regulations [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,650, up 810. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,335, down 30 [26]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 82,563, a decrease of 34,853, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 114,420, a decrease of 7,812 [26]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 897, down 3. The price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) from TISCO/Zhangpu was 13,250, down 100 [26]. - **News**: An Indonesian mining area was taken over due to violations. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a strong surge, reaching a peak of $4,134 before retreating, influenced by increasing divergence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.29% to $4,078.30 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 1.78%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) saw a rise of 4.13% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting revealed significant divisions among decision-makers regarding interest rate cuts [1] - Despite concerns that rate cuts could hinder efforts to control inflation, which has remained above the 2% target for the past four and a half years, the Fed ultimately decided to lower rates [1] - Following the meeting, Fed officials expressed increased worries about inflation and showed a tendency to oppose further rate cuts in December, with current market expectations for a rate cut at only about 30% [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts from CITIC Futures noted that there may be cautious sentiment in the market ahead of important earnings reports from U.S. stocks [1] - The upcoming release of the Fed's October meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data could lead to market anticipations, particularly given the ongoing cooling in the labor market [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals is expected to be maintained [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The U.S. employment data affects the interest - rate cut expectations, leading to a slight increase in copper prices. Copper production shows an increasing trend, and as the demand side is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, the fundamentals limit the rebound space. With the release of U.S. economic data and the approaching of the interest - rate meeting, the trend of copper prices will become clearer [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 were 232,000, and the continued jobless claims were 1.957 million, an increase from the previous week. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are resuming production, and with the increase in copper prices, production enthusiasm is rising, so output is expected to increase. The supply of scrap copper has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. The rise in copper prices has restricted downstream consumption, and except for the power and power battery new - energy sectors, downstream demand is weak. In October 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 134,304 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%, and imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, showing strength during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan/ton, and in South China was 35 yuan/ton. On November 18, 2025, the LME official price was $10,690/ton, and the spot premium was - $41/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 58,400 tons, a decrease of 2,522 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 389,300 short tons, an increase of 3,221 short tons from the previous period [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].

AvaTrade爱华每日市场报告：周二，全球金融市场被浓厚的避险情绪所笼罩。对科技股与人工智能领域 估值过高的担忧成为市场主线，叠加投资者对美联储推迟降息的预期升温，导致全球主要股指普遍承 压。美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲与亚洲市场也紧随其后，唯有小盘股代表罗素2000指数逆势微涨，暗 示市场内部可能出现轮动迹象。与此同时，美元走强与国债收益率的波动，共同勾勒出一幅投资者在不 确定性中转向防御的图景。 1. 前一天摘要 – 2025年11月18日，星期二 美国主要指数 美国股市于 11月18日星期二 收低，广泛避险情绪笼罩市场。随着科技和人工智能估值高企，尤其是英 伟达等大型股价，卖压加剧，这些股价支撑着主要指数。人们对美联储可能下调进一步降息预期的担忧 加深，这削弱了投资者的乐观情绪。标普500指数再次下跌，连续第四天下跌。道琼斯指数下跌1%，受 包括家得宝、亚马逊和Microsoft在内的股东拖累。纳斯达克综合指数下跌，受大型股科技股广泛疲软影 响。罗素2000指数逆势而上，收盘为绿色，暗示股将转向小市值股。主要驱动因素包括AI股票高估担 忧、降息希望减弱以及全球股市回调。 波动率与收益率 • VIX：±1 ...

本周金银价格重心继续下移，周二，国际金价围绕4000美元/盎司震荡，国际白银价格重心已经下破50 美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院贵金属研究员徐颖表示，贵金属价格在上周五便开始回调，主要受近期美联储多位官 员发表"鹰派"讲话影响，市场对12月的降息预期明显"降温"，货币政策短期缺乏增量刺激，流动性尚未 快速释放。另外，随着美国政府重新"开门"，关税问题出现边际缓和迹象，美国对瑞士关税从39%下调 至15%，市场避险情绪下降，也对贵金属价格不利。 "如果本周公布的9月非农数据表现较好，下月初公布的11月非农数据也保持韧性，那么美联储确实有暂 停一次降息的空间，后续市场或将进一步交易'鹰派'预期，推动美债利率和美元反弹，并施压金银价 格；反之，如果任意一次月度新增就业意外转负，降息预期可能迅速回升，引发金银价格迅速反弹。" 吴梓杰分析表示。 值得注意的是，近几日美联储多位官员对12月降息持谨慎或反对的态度。究其原因，中信建投期货贵金 属分析师王彦青表示，主要在于美国通胀仍处于高位，且无明确证据表明通胀正回到2%的目标水平。 此外，近期美国政府"停摆"导致的经济数据缺失亦是美联储官员谨慎态度的来源，在缺失决策依据 ...