报告日期：2025 年 7 月 21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国稳定币监管立法落地，中国工业经济韧性凸显 美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（简 称《天才法案》），标志着美国稳定币监管立法进入实施阶段。 美国众议院 17 日以 308 票赞成、122 票反对的结果，通过了这一法案，该法案旨在为"锚 定"美元的稳定币制定监管框架。国内方面今年上半年工业和信息化领域主要 经济指标总量和增速稳步提升，规上工业增加值同比增长 6.4%，在一季度良好 开局的基础上展现出较强韧性，制造业增加值占 GDP 比重达到 25.7%，基本保 持稳定。下一步，多项政策举措将筑牢工业经济基本盘、持续培育发展动能。 其中，工业和信息化部将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点 行业稳增长工作方案；会同相关部门完善支持新型工业化的金融政策，纵深推 进产融合作；在政策、人才、资金、市场等方面持续优化企业发展环境。 重点品种：黄金、钢材、股指 钢材：当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水仍处高位缓慢回落的情况下，钢材 供应端压力逐步体现。钢材库存延续去化，钢材出口虽面临关税和反倾销影响， 但钢坯 ...

部分班轮公司宣涨8月初运价,盘面偏强震荡,近月保持基差修复,今日若回调可考虑加仓。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月14日 | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2421.94点，较上期上涨7.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1218.03点，较上期下跌3.19% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1266.59点，较上期下跌18.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1435.21点，较上期下跌0.50% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1186.59点，较上期上涨0.85% | | 7月18日 | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1803.42点，较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand"; the negotiation process of tariffs will also affect copper prices, with the main contract price expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short - term, the main contract price of alumina is expected to fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,400, and it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term; the short - term price of aluminum is expected to face pressure at high levels, with the main contract price ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but there may be a significant increase in tin prices driven by market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions from previous highs [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000; there is a risk of a decline in the medium - term [16]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,660 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 144 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,248 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,391 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,500 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,446 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,500 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 15,544.01 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 66,650 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is not provided [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; imports were 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. - **Zinc**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; imports were 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [9]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [16]. Market Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors such as US tariffs and inflation, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the copper market, will affect copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the aluminum market, as well as the impact of Guinea's policies on the bauxite supply, will affect aluminum prices [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum alloy market, especially the weak demand in the terminal automotive industry, will affect aluminum alloy prices [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand relationship in the zinc market, especially the high smelting plant operating rate and the differentiated demand in the primary processing industry, will affect zinc prices [7]. - **Nickel**: Macro factors such as US inflation and tariffs, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the nickel market, will affect nickel prices [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand relationship in the tin market, especially the supply recovery of tin ore in Myanmar and the weakening demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries, will affect tin prices [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the stainless steel market, as well as the price fluctuations of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferronickel, will affect stainless steel prices [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market, especially the continuous increase in production and the limited increase in demand, as well as the impact of news and capital sentiment, will affect lithium carbonate prices [16].

新华财经北京7月21日电上周（7月14日-7月18日当周）国际金价高位窄幅震荡。当周现货黄金开盘 3364.19美元／盎司，最高触及3377.16美元／盎司，最低3309.81美元／盎司，报收3350.39美元／盎司。 周度累计下跌4.73美元或0.14%，周K线微跌，终结之前的两周连阳。 回顾上周金价的驱动因素，美国经济数据、美联储独立性前景以及关税政策等因素交织作用，使得现货 黄金虽周内波动较为明显，但仍维持震荡走势。 展望新的一周，关税博弈仍在继续，美国最新的制造业和服务业PMI或提供有关特朗普关税政策影响的 最新线索。与此同时，鲍威尔在重压之下能否顶住降息压力，也令市场关注。但考虑到金价7月以来波 动率缩小，预计震荡格局或将延续。 美国通胀数据基本符合预期，避险需求支撑金价 在上周一金价冲高回落之后，黄金市场的焦点就转向了美国6月通胀和零售销售等重要经济数据。 不过，避险需求则成为上周金价尽管面临压力，但仍高位坚挺的支撑。这主要表现在，一方面，市场质 疑消费反弹中可能包含一定"关税推动的价格上涨"成分。另一方面，市场对美国财政赤字、关税政策走 向及美联储独立性问题的担忧持续发酵，推高了对避险资产的需求 ...

美媒：美国关税可能扰乱供应链 更强烈的警示信号或将出现 中新网7月21日电 综合美媒报道，美国特朗普政府的关税政策持续引发外界关注，分析人士指出，有迹 象表明，关税的影响可能已经体现在经济报告的细节之中。这一政策可能会扰乱供应链，推高通胀，并 减缓全球经济增长。美媒指出，更强烈的警示信号可能即将出现。 据彭博社报道，从更宏观的层面来看，有迹象表明，关税的影响可能已经体现在经济报告的细节之中。 近日公布的通胀数据显示，美国6月份核心消费者价格涨幅加快，而家具和服装等易受关税影响的品类 表明，企业正开始将更高的成本转嫁给消费者。 该媒体称，更强烈的警示信号可能即将出现。汇丰银行的分析师正密切关注两大动向：一是零售销售可 能将在今年晚些时候走弱；二是当企业耗尽其在低关税时期囤积的库存商品后，价格可能出现上涨。 彭博经济研究估计，总体而言，与没有关税的情况相比，当前的关税税率将使未来两到三年内美国经济 规模缩小约1.6%。经济学家表示，消费者价格最终将上涨0.9%。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to fluctuate while silver shows relative strength. The US retail sales monthly rate increased by 0.6%, far exceeding the expected 0.1%. There were rumors that Trump considered firing Powell, which he later denied, but the Trump administration tried to influence market expectations through potential new Fed chair candidates. The US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year in June, the largest increase this year, cooling short - term rate - cut expectations. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for major trading countries, but there is a risk of the final tariff threat being partially realized. With good economic data recently, the expectation of the Fed's early rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized and rebounded. Although the impact of the tariff policy shown by US data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is boosted by industrial products and shows relative strength. Recently, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Precious Metals Futures**: For gold futures, the current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.60 and 779.14 respectively, with price increases of 0.64 and 0.76, and price increase rates of 0.08% and 0.10%. For silver futures, the current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9246.00 and 9292.00 respectively, with price increases of 106.00 and price increase rates of 1.16% and 1.15%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract are also provided [2]. - **Related Indices and Assets**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. Spot Market - **Precious Metals Spot**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London gold, and London silver are given, along with their price changes and price change rates. The price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.28 with a decline rate of - 0.17%, London gold decreased by 1.24 with a decline rate of - 0.16%, and London silver increased by 0.28 with an increase rate of 0.75% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of spreads such as沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai gold/London gold, and Shanghai silver/London silver are provided, as well as their previous values [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, etc. are given. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms, the silver inventory increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 493,426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Derivatives - The current positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators' net positions in gold and silver are provided. The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF positions both increased by 1.00 ton to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net position in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position in gold decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macroeconomic News - The US Treasury Secretary Bentsen privately advised Trump not to fire Fed Chairman Powell, warning of economic, political, and legal consequences. Trump said he didn't need anyone to explain the pros and cons. Ukraine has invited Russia to hold a new round of negotiations this week, with the negotiation date to be determined, and Istanbul will be the location for the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market remains at historically high levels despite the pressure from tariffs, but analysts warn that investors may be underestimating the impact of trade barriers on corporate earnings [1] - The S&P 500 index is trading at an expected price-to-earnings ratio of about 22 times, close to its highest valuation level since the pandemic [1] - Bloomberg data shows that the average tariffs paid by U.S. importers have surged to over 13%, more than five times higher than last year, which could reduce corporate earnings growth by 5% or more [1] Group 2 - Even the most bullish investors are preparing for volatility, with Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist predicting a potential market adjustment of 5%-10% due to lower-than-expected corporate guidance [2] - Current tariff levels are estimated to shrink the U.S. economy by 1.6% over the next two to three years, with consumer prices expected to rise by 0.9% [2] - The market faces a real bear market risk, with potential declines of 20% or more if earnings expectations are not met [2] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs is already evident as companies begin to report their Q2 earnings, with General Mills predicting a 1%-2% increase in sales costs and Oxford Industries lowering its annual profit forecast due to an additional $40 million in tariff costs [3] - FedEx has warned that trade policies are continuing to pressure its business, particularly in the high-margin U.S.-China freight sector, with quarterly earnings expected to fall below expectations [3] - Recent data indicates that companies are starting to pass higher costs onto consumers, particularly in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and clothing [3] Group 4 - Despite concerns, there are optimistic voices on Wall Street, with Goldman Sachs strategists citing declining interest rates, low unemployment, and high corporate profitability as support for high valuations [4] - The recent "Big Beautiful Bill" signed by Trump has made several corporate tax cuts permanent, which could contribute 5%-7% to S&P 500 earnings growth according to Morgan Stanley's estimates [4] Group 5 - Investors initially expected more tightening measures from the Trump administration, but the stimulus effects of the recent bill have alleviated some concerns [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies remains, with significant risks of increased overall tariff levels before the August 1 deadline [5] - UBS's chief strategist emphasizes that ignoring tariffs and their inflationary effects could lead to a miscalculation, as these factors may impact disposable income and market reactions [5]

芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他对6月CPI数据中关税推高商品通胀的迹象"有点警惕" ，但仍认为美 国经济处于良好状态，美联储的政策利率在未来12个月内可能会有"相当幅度的"下降。 联邦基金利率期货交易员预计年底前将降息 46 个基点，这意味着最有可能的是两次降息，每次25个基 点，第一次将在 9 月份。美元指数日内基本持平于 98.49，预计周线涨幅为 0.65%。 在关税方面，印尼仍在制定与美国新贸易协议的细节，而美国财政部长贝森特则告诉日本首相有可能达 成 "良好协议"。而欧盟特使最早将于本周召开会议，针对可能与美国前总统特朗普陷入的无协议局面 制定应对措施。在 8 月 1 日最后期限临近之际，特朗普在关税谈判中的立场被认为愈发强硬。欧盟的首 要选择是推动与美国的谈判继续进行，争取在下周最后期限前通过协商解决僵局。然而，知情人士表 示，上周在华盛顿举行的会谈并未取得持续进展。未来两周谈判将继续进行。这些因讨论私下磋商而要 求匿名的人士称，美国目前希望对欧盟商品征收近乎全面的关税，税率高于 10%，豁免范围日益缩 小，仅包括航空业、部分医疗设备、非专利药、几种烈酒以及美国所需的特定制造设备。负责欧盟贸易 事 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Macro Aspect**: The US economic growth maintains a slight increase, with some areas seeing rising prices. Fed officials' hawkish remarks suggest maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy. The impact of tariffs on prices is not obvious yet, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. The short - term disturbance may come from the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, and the macro is about to enter a data - silent period [3]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, with prices in the Philippines and Indonesia showing signs of weakening. Nickel - iron prices are under continuous pressure, and stainless - steel mills have low production schedules. The nickel sulfate market has improved, but the transaction has not fully recovered. Pure nickel shows no significant change in premium and discount. The inventory is accumulating again, and there is no obvious improvement expectation in the fundamentals [3]. - **Future Outlook**: There is no improvement expectation in the industry. Although the trading in the nickel sulfate market has recovered, the sales growth of new - energy vehicles is weak. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded, but steel production is still shrinking. Supply has recovered, but export profits have shrunk, making it difficult to drive upstream production increase. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate under macro - level disturbances [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Nickel Prices**: SHFE nickel decreased from 121,100 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton; LME nickel increased from 15,064 dollars/ton to 15,218 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 264 tons to 21,560 tons. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 1,662 tons to 229,136 tons [4][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, and Indonesia has lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore in the second phase of July. The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia show signs of weakening [3][5]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 903.5 yuan/nickel point to 900 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia shows different trends. Stainless - steel mills have low production schedules, and the demand for nickel - iron is limited. However, due to cost - price inversion, some factories have reduced production or switched to high - grade nickel matte production, and the price may bottom out soon [6]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly from 27,420 yuan/ton to 27,230 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while the production of ternary materials increased. The spot market has improved, but the actual demand is not strong enough to drive price reversal [7]. 3. Terminal Consumption - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 332,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The annual cumulative sales growth rate is gradually declining. There are also some policies to support the new - energy vehicle industry, such as standards for battery replacement and subsidy policies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel has rebounded under policy drive, but steel mills' production schedules are still in a contraction phase, and the strong consumption expectation has not been fulfilled [3][11]. 4. Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Policy**: Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic benchmark price in July, which decreased by about 0.11% compared with the first - phase price. The RKAB approval mechanism will return to annual approval next year [12]. - **Company Operations**: PT GAG Nikel in West Papua has not been allowed to resume operations [12]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US will impose a 19% tariff on all imported Indonesian goods, and Indonesia will purchase US energy, agricultural products, and Boeing aircraft [12]. 5. Related Charts - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premium and discount, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

铜周报 鸽派立场渐浓，铜价止跌反弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因满足COMEX关税截止日期前的套 利窗口正在关闭致使部分货源回流LME，造成美铜溢价估 值向下修复，6月美国CPI温和上行，关税影响并未完全显 现，目前美联储鹰鸽两派分歧加剧，鹰派官员认为需要紧 缩的货币政策来遏制通胀升温的势头，而仍有部分官员认 为今年仍应降息两次，虽然全球贸易局势干扰加剧，但降 息预期的升温令资本市场风险偏好回升。基本面来看，海 外矿端紧缺事实不变，LME库存持续回升，海外精铜供应 逐渐趋松，主流矿企二季报已增产为主，国内社会库存小 幅增加，近月B结构转向平水。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 ⚫ 整体来看，因美联储内部鹰鸽两派分歧较大令9月降息扑 朔迷 ...