Group 1 - The main futures contract for glass increased by over 8% during the day [1]

智通财经7月24日电，碳酸锂期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至3%，报73840元/吨；此前一度跌近3%。 碳酸锂期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至3% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and trading strategies for various commodities. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others have specific supply - demand and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by weather, policy, and seasonal factors [1][5]. Summaries by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the demand shows a differentiation. The short - term trading strategy is to view copper prices as fluctuating strongly, as the US dollar index is consolidating at a key support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the demand is in the traditional off - season but with a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. With the upcoming policy and cost support, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Alumina**: The production of alumina plants is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The bullish sentiment is fading, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to policy and position structure changes [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply pressure of zinc ingots continues, and the consumption is weak in the off - season. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term view is bearish [1]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The trading strategy is to operate within a range [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to turn into a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Tin**: The supply side focuses on the resumption of production in Wa State, and the demand shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the short - squeeze risk under the ultra - low inventory in London [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of building materials are weak, but the inventory pressure is small. The overall supply and demand of steel are balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively strong. The inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time. A long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio can be arranged [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are slowly improving. The futures price is overvalued. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The international soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the US soybean export demand is uncertain. The domestic soybean arrival is large, and the demand is high. It is recommended to follow the international cost side and pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The remaining grain is scarce, and the demand for domestic corn is affected by substitutes. The price is expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract rose. The domestic sugar market is affected by imports and macro - sentiment. The later price of the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton growth and demand show different trends, and the domestic cotton inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and operate within a range [5][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand shows a decline in exports but support in year - on - year demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term and focus on production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: High temperatures reduce the egg - laying rate, and the demand from food factories may increase seasonally, but the cold - storage egg inventory is high. The egg price is expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: The consumption of pigs is seasonally weak, and the supply is increasing. The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6]. - **Apples**: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples has increased, and the market is waiting for the results of bag - removal. The current consumption is light, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease. The demand is improving in the post - off - season of agricultural film. The short - term trading strategy is to expect fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [7]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to close short - positions and wait for policy implementation [8]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate around 15,000, and attention should be paid to the pressure level at 15,300 [8]. - **Glass**: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to wait and see for policy implementation [8]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is increasing, and the demand has short - term support but long - term risks. The trading strategy is to short on rallies, especially near SC530 yuan/barrel [9]. - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply and demand of soda ash have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2680至2740区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2640，基差-118，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.51万吨，上周0.46万吨，周环比增加228%，去年同期3.6万吨，同比减 少58.06%。偏多 4.盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (corn, pork, and eggs) are rated as "Range" [1][3] Core Views - The market for corn has short - term support and pressure, with the mid - term supply pattern expected to tighten but the long - term price increase limited by policies and substitutes. Pork futures were boosted by sentiment but will return to supply - demand fundamentals, with short - term price fluctuations, mid - term supply increase expectations, and long - term high production capacity. Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the short - term, have a potential mid - term rebound, but may face pressure in the long - term if the elimination of laying hens is less than expected [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Corn - **Market Review**: The night - session of the previous day saw corn futures fluctuating. The 2509 contract rose 0.17% to close at 2315 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Spot prices were weak and stable, with port prices slightly down and deep - processing enterprise prices mostly stable. As of July 23, futures warehouse receipts decreased by 207 to 175,450 hands. An auction of 195,017 tons of imported corn is scheduled for July 25 [1] - **Market Logic**: Short - term price increases are limited; mid - term prices may rise but with limited upside; long - term prices are restricted by policies and substitutes [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term range operation; mid - term low - buying; short - term testing of support and pressure. The 2509 contract was suggested for band - buying, with pressure at 2340 - 2360 [1] Pork - **Market Review**: The previous day, all main pork futures contracts rose. The LH2509 contract rose 1.67% to 14,590 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 2.77% to 14,300 yuan/ton [3] - **Important Information**: On July 23, the national average pig price was 14.23 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. In June 2025, the number of breeding sows was 40.43 million, up 0.1% year - on - year. The inventory of medium and large pigs decreased by 0.8% in June. The fat - standard price difference on July 23 was 0.16 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. The weekly average slaughter weight on July 17 was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg. On July 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting high - quality development of the pig industry [3] - **Market Logic**: Futures were driven up by sentiment but will return to supply - demand. Short - term prices may fluctuate; mid - term supply may increase; long - term production capacity remains high [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term short - selling; mid - term range operation; short - term, breeding enterprises are advised to consider selling hedging when far - month contracts face pressure. Pressure levels for 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are provided [3] Eggs - **Market Review**: The previous day, egg futures rose and then fell. The JD2509 contract rose 0.36% to 3637 yuan/500kg [3] - **Important Information**: Egg prices continued to rise. The average price in the main production areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The average inventory in the production and circulation links was 0.89 and 1.01 days respectively. The average price of old hens was 5.79 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin. In June, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the estimated inventory in July is 1.352 billion [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term prices may strengthen; mid - term prices may rebound but with limited upside; long - term prices may face pressure if the elimination of laying hens is less than expected [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The 09 contract has a short - long and long - short strategy, with pressure at 3680 - 3700 and support at 3500 - 3550. The 10 contract is in a range, and short - selling opportunities for 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts are suggested if the elimination is less than expected [4]

焦煤期货主力合约现报1171元/吨，涨幅达5.5%，日内增仓超10万手。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for industrial silicon has seen an increase of 4.00% in intraday trading, currently priced at 9,855 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The price movement indicates a significant upward trend in the industrial silicon market, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn,生猪, and eggs are all rated as "区间" (Range) [1][3] 2. Core Views - For corn, in the short - term, the spot price has both support and pressure, and the bullish sentiment on the futures market weakens; in the medium - term, the supply pattern may tighten, and the spot price will tend to be stronger; in the long - term, policy grain release and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1] - For pigs, in the short - term, the price may fluctuate, with the national average price of 14 yuan/kg as a valid support; in the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the price to rise continuously; in the long - term, the production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] - For eggs, in the short - term, the price has basically confirmed the bottom and may strengthen, but a sharp increase is difficult; in the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound in August - September, but the high point should not be over - optimistic; in the long - term, if the profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - Last night, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 0.95% to 2303 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - Yesterday, the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The prices at north - south ports were stable, and the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly. As of July 22, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1686 lots to 175657 lots. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the 22nd, CGSGB sold 198558 tons of imported corn with a 27% transaction rate, and will organize another sale of 195017 tons on the 25th [1] Market Logic - Short - term: The spot price has both support and pressure, and the bullish sentiment on the futures market weakens. Medium - term: The supply pattern may tighten, and the spot price will tend to be stronger. Long - term: Policy grain release and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range operation; Medium - term: Low - buying strategy; Short - term: Verify support and test resistance. The previous report's suggestions on the 2509 contract were verified by the market [1] Pigs Market Review - Yesterday, the main contracts of live - hog futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.21% to 14380 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.69% to 13960 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On the 22nd, the national average live - hog price was 14.34 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000, up 0.1% year - on - year. The inventory of medium - and large - sized pigs in June decreased by 0.8% from the previous month. On the 22nd, the price difference between fat and standard hogs was 0.15 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. The weekly average slaughter weight on July 17 was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg from the previous week. On the 22nd, the number of live - hog futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284 lots [3] Market Logic - Short - term: The price may fluctuate. Medium - term: There is an expected increase in supply in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the price to rise continuously. Long - term: The production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] Trading Strategy - Long - term: High - selling strategy; Medium - term: Range operation; Short - term: Verify support and then strengthen to test resistance. Suggestions for breeding enterprises to consider selling - hedging opportunities [3] Eggs Market Review - Yesterday, the egg futures fluctuated. The JD2509 contract fell 0.08% to 3621 yuan/500kg [3] Important Information - Yesterday, the egg price was stable with a slight increase. The inventory level decreased slightly. The average price of old hens increased. In June, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the theoretical estimated value for July is 1.352 billion [3] Market Logic - Short - term: The price has basically confirmed the bottom and may strengthen, but a sharp increase is difficult. Medium - term: There may be a phased rebound in August - September, but the high point should not be over - optimistic. Long - term: If the profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3] Trading Strategy - The 09 contract follows a short - long and long - short strategy. If the elimination in the third quarter is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities in the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

| | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 壇减 | 会员 | 持买車 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 10,842 | 2,403 | 银河期货 | 4,229 | -835 | 中信期货 | 3,634 | -JT | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 9,322 | 1,737 | 国泰君安 | 3,423 | g | 方正中期 | 3,072 | J8 | | 3 | 银河期货 | 5,667 | 2,905 | 中信期货 | 3,076 | -723 | 物产中大 | 2,718 | -243 | | 4 | 东证期货 | 4,571 | 266 | 永安期货 | 1,650 | -847 | 国泰君安 | 2,562 | 141 | | 5 | 华泰期货 | 4,019 | 2,035 | 东证期货 | 1,514 | -163 | 花拳期货 | 2,055 | -373 | | 6 | 广发期货 | 3,407 | 1,649 | 走拳期 ...