5月31日，摩根大通发布研究报告指出，本周围绕美国关税的不确定性进一步加剧，美国法院根据《国 际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）裁定特朗普政府的关税措施违宪。尽管表面上看，这预示着美国对中 国（及其他亚洲经济体）下调关税的可能性上升，但白宫仍拥有大量替代权力（如第 122、301、338 条款）以实施关税。因此，摩根大通认为关税争端不太可能就此结束，目前仍不能完全排除美国关税维 持现有水平甚至进一步上调的风险（摩根大通仍预期美国关税将上升）。 外汇市场借此机会进一步平仓美元多头，美元指数本周从局部低点反弹。美元 / 离岸人民币汇率随之温 和走高，但与地区 peers 相比总体保持稳定，使得中国外汇交易中心（CFETS）人民币贸易加权指数 （TWI）跟随美元指数小幅走强（图 1）。人民币汇率的相对稳定也得益于区间波动的中间价设定 —— 中国央行将每日参考汇率维持在 7.18-7.19 的窄幅区间内，而摩根大通的模型预测显示合理区间应为 7.17-7.21。中国央行通过有管理的中间价设定，允许人民币汇率大致跟踪美元走势，但波动性比其他 货币更收敛（图 2）。 图 1：美元 / 离岸人民币跟随美元走高，但人民币本周 ...

香港特别行政区政府于5月30日在宪报刊登《稳定币条例》，这意味着《稳定币条例》正式成为法例。 香港金融管理局总裁余伟文表示："条例建立了一个风险为本、务实和灵活的监管制度。我们相信稳健 和适切的监管环境可以缔造有利条件，支持香港稳定币以至数码资产生态圈的健康、负责任和可持续发 展。" 有什么影响？ HashKey Group首席分析师丁肇飞接受记者采访时表示，香港《稳定币条例草案》的通过是香港虚拟资 产监管进程中的重要里程碑。 此前，香港立法会已经在5月21日正式通过该条例草案，用以在香港设立"法币稳定币" (挂钩法定货币的 稳定币)发行人的发牌制度。该法例旨在推动金融创新的同时保持金融稳定，并标志着香港在数字资产 领域迈出了重要的一步。 《稳定币条例》主要内容 据了解，《稳定币条例》实施后，任何人在香港发行法币稳定币，或在香港或以外发行宣称锚定港元价 值的法币稳定币，必须向香港金融管理专员申领牌照。相关人士须符合储备资产管理及赎回等方面的规 定，包括妥善分隔客户资产、维持健全的稳定机制，以及须在合理条件下按面额处理稳定币持有人的赎 回要求。相关人士亦须符合一系列打击洗钱及恐怖分子资金筹集、风险管理、披露规定 ...

LPR年内首降，利好将传导到楼市及消费领域 王运金 广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员 对于已购房者来说，LPR下调会带来存量房贷利率下调，居民每月的月供会相应减少，意味着可收入支 配的增加。这使得居民在满足基本生活开支后，有更多的资金用于消费，如购买家电、汽车、旅游等， 从而刺激了消费需求，带动了相关产业的发展，家具家电、汽车、旅游、餐饮零售等行业都能从中受 益，进而促进经济增长。 宏观慧眼 从宏观经济层面来看，消费和房地产市场的活跃对内需的拉动作用较为明显。消费作为经济增长的主要 动力之一，居民消费扩张可以刺激企业扩大生产，增加就业岗位，居民收入也会有所提升，会进一步刺 激消费，形成正向反馈。同时，房地产市场的稳定发展不仅对上下游产业有巨大拉动作用，还能加快城 市化进程，带动区域经济的发展。LPR的调降可以有效减轻居民房贷压力、刺激消费需求、活跃楼市、 改善预期，有利于扩大内需、促进经济增长。 存款利率下调不仅是促"存款搬家"，更是呼应资本市场"顶层设计" 薛洪言 苏商银行特约研究员 近年来，存款搬家一直是热议话题。从2022年9月份起，经过累计7轮存款挂牌价下调，主要期限定期存 款利率全面进入"1.0"时 ...

文/李悦 在全球经济格局正经历深度重构、不确定性 显著增强的当下，中国资本市场的估值优势正愈发成为 全球投资者瞩目的焦点。 当前， A股与港股估值水平已 滑落至历史相对低位区间 。 以沪深300指数为例， 其市盈率仅为 12.6倍 ， 这一数值 不足标普500 指数 的一半， 相较于 日经225指数、德国DAX指数等国际主要 股指，同样处于明显低位。 这 意味着在全球资本市场中，A股市场正以极具吸引力的价格，为投资者提供分享中国优质企业成 长红利的机会。 然而，从市场的实际情况来看，A股对外资的吸引力并未如预期般强劲。 据Wind数据，近三年外资持有A股数量虽呈增长趋势，但外资持股市值在流通A股市值和总股本市值 中的占比，均呈下降趋势。截至5月26日，外资持有A股数量合计1274.85亿股，持股市值达2.33万 亿元，占流通A股市值约2.95%，占总股本市值为2.33%。这一数值 与 中国作为世界 第二大经济 体的 庞大 体量形成巨大错位 ， 与A股估值洼地优势 更是 形成鲜明反差 。 数据来源：Wind 在关税战阴云未散的背景下， 中国资本市场该如何突围， 将估值洼地转化为全球资本的"价值锚点" ？ 围绕上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held on June 18-19 in Shanghai, focusing on "Financial Openness and Cooperation in the Global Economic Landscape and High-Quality Development" [1] Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum is co-hosted by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Shanghai Municipal Government, with key leaders from these organizations participating [1][3] - Over 70 domestic and international guests will attend and speak at the forum, including officials from financial regulatory bodies in the UK, Hungary, Singapore, and Hong Kong, as well as leaders from major financial institutions [2][3] Group 2: Key Sessions and Topics - The forum will feature eight plenary sessions covering topics such as global economic changes, monetary policy coordination, capital market development, and the role of artificial intelligence in financial innovation [3] - Three specialized sessions will focus on reinsurance market development, international legal practices in financial cooperation, and supporting hard technology enterprises through financial collaboration [4] Group 3: Shanghai's Financial Development - Shanghai has become a leading area for financial openness in China, with 1,782 licensed financial institutions, of which about one-third are foreign [4] - The city is set to expand its financial openness with a focus on institutional reforms and establishing more financial trading mechanisms aligned with international standards [5][7] Group 4: Policy Support and Financial Infrastructure - The People's Bank of China is accelerating policy support for the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, with a series of measures aimed at enhancing cross-border financial services [7][8] - The cross-border RMB settlement volume in Shanghai reached nearly 30 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 47% of the national total [9] Group 5: Capital Market Reforms - The "Science and Technology Innovation Board Eight Measures" have shown positive effects, with new IPO applications and listings for hard technology companies [11] - The market for mergers and acquisitions has become more active, with significant increases in disclosed transactions and a revised management approach to streamline processes [12][13]

央行公告称，5月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2911亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标 量2911亿元，中标量2911亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1425亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1486亿 元。 央行行长潘功胜主持召开金融支持实体经济座谈会，会议指出，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期， 抓好一揽子货币金融政策措施的落实和传导，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。 会议强调，要实施好适度宽松的货币政策，满足实体经济有效融资需求，保持金融总量合理增长。加力支 持科技创新、提振消费、民营小微、稳定外贸等重点领域，用好用足存量和增量政策，提高金融支持实体 经济质效，支持经济结构调整、转型升级和新旧动能转换。强化货币政策执行和传导，维护市场竞争公平 秩序，推动金融服务实体经济和银行自身可持续发展的有机统一。有序推进人民币国际使用，提高贸易和 投融资便利化水平。统筹发展和安全，坚决维护国家金融安全。 日前美联储会议纪要显示，本月稍早的会议上，美联储决策者普遍认为，经济面临的不确定性比之前更 高，对待降息适合保持谨慎，等待特朗普政府关税等政策的影响更明朗，再考虑行动。而且， ...

Group 1 - Rongda Hezhong successfully passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, indicating its recognized market position in the AIDC field, with projected revenue of approximately 350 million yuan and net profit of about 41 million yuan for 2024 [1] - Yushi Technology submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on L4-level autonomous driving technology, with expected revenue of 265 million yuan for 2024, but currently operating at a loss [2] - Tencent's AI product ima has integrated the DeepSeek R1-0528 model, enhancing reasoning performance and code capabilities, which is expected to improve user experience and attract more users [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 68 billion yuan of government bonds in Hong Kong in six phases, with the third phase of 12.5 billion yuan scheduled for June 4, 2025, aimed at enriching the RMB bond market and promoting RMB internationalization [4] - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.35%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.46%, and the National Enterprises Index up by 1.37% on May 29 [5]

Group 1 - Japan is unlikely to sell its large holdings of US Treasury bonds despite the recent drop in bond prices, as there are no better alternative investments available [1][2] - Japan, like other countries, prefers to hold US dollars for foreign exchange reserves rather than euros, due to the depth of the US capital markets and the strong technological competitiveness of the US [2] - The dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, with a current share of 58% in global foreign exchange reserves, although this is the lowest level in decades [5] Group 2 - There are doubts about the euro's potential to replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, primarily due to political fragmentation in Europe and the lack of depth in European capital markets [4][5] - The influence of the Chinese yuan is seen as more promising in challenging the dollar's dominance in Asia, with an increasing amount of trade being settled in yuan [5] - The euro currently accounts for 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, significantly lower than the dollar's share [5]

证券研究报告 策略 港股重估下 A 股定价如何演绎? 华泰研究 2025年5月29日|中国内地 专题研究 来自宁德时代港股上市的思考 -- 估值体系的国际化接轨 去年以来,美的集团、宁德时代为代表的一批A股优质标的赴港二次上市, 吸引了全球投资者的关注。5月20日,宁德时代港股上市,募资总额达410 亿港元,其中基石投资者认购占比近 50%,截至最新交易日仍较 A 股存在 大幅溢价,反映了国际资本对国内稀缺性资产的高度认可。我们认为,当前 A 股核心资产在全球 PB-ROE 视角下仍低估,且外资配置力度处于相对低 位,随着全球资金在美元和非美资产间 "再平衡",外资在港股对核心资产 进行的系统性重估,或对Ａ股形成正向传导机制,带动核心资产估值修复。 近期龙头企业赴港二次上市提振 A 股表现 2024年以来,港股IPO市场呈现回暖态势,且由于部分大体量内地龙头赴 港二次上市,慕资规模甚至超过Ａ股市场。其中,美的集团/赤峰黄金/宁德 时代/恒瑞医药等行业龙头基石投资者认购占比较高,港股二次上市后表现 较强,甚至出现 AH 溢价的倒挂,并通过流动性外溢等传导至对应 A 股和相 关板块的上涨。复盘来看,通常港股二次上 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that the recent legislative moves in the US and China regarding stablecoins are aimed at addressing debt issues and stabilizing their respective currencies while potentially shifting the burden of debt onto global users [2][4][17] - The US Senate has passed the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act," allowing tech giants to issue stablecoins fully backed by US Treasury bonds, effectively creating a digital version of the dollar [2][10] - China's Hong Kong is also advancing its own stablecoin regulations, which are pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, indicating a strategic move to bypass the SWIFT system and reduce reliance on the US dollar [2][4] Group 2 - Stablecoins are defined as a hybrid of central bank currency and blockchain technology, designed to maintain stability in value, primarily through asset-backed models [6][10] - The current market for stablecoins has seen a surge, with transaction volumes reaching $28 trillion in 2024, surpassing Bitcoin and major credit card companies [10] - The majority of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with over $250 billion in reserves, positioning them as a shadow version of the dollar outside US regulatory control [10][12] Group 3 - The strategy of using stablecoins to manage debt involves converting adversaries into allies, encouraging global adoption to bolster demand for US Treasury bonds [11][12] - The potential for retail investors to indirectly purchase US Treasury bonds through stablecoins is highlighted, as they offer higher yields compared to traditional savings accounts [11][12] - The US aims to increase the total market value of stablecoins from $250 billion to $2 trillion, which could significantly alleviate the issue of unsold Treasury bonds [11][12] Group 4 - The introduction of stablecoins allows the US to issue digital currency globally, effectively collecting seigniorage while distributing inflationary pressures [12][16] - The risks associated with stablecoin issuers, including lack of transparency and potential for high-risk investments, raise concerns about their ability to absorb bad debts if US Treasury bonds falter [15][16] - The competition between US and Chinese stablecoins reflects a broader strategy to establish alternative financial systems that could mitigate the impact of US dollar fluctuations [17][19]