中国宏观经济展望 - 2025 年中金公司中期投资策略会 20250630 摘要 中国经济正经历新旧模式交替，房地产拖累减小，技术进步加速，但物 价仍低迷，反映出经济转型初期不同领域表现不一，需综合分析宏观形 势。 中国劳动市场调整缓慢，劳动密度下降，收入增速放缓，影响消费和物 价，总需求偏弱，预计 2025 年下半年延续"准均衡"状态。 预计 2025 年下半年货币政策将侧重结构性工具，财政支出增加，出口 保持韧性，全年经济增长率预计在 5%左右，核心 CPI 逐步上升。 房地产与整体经济相关性减弱，家电销售不再完全依赖房地产，更多受 置换需求驱动，表明中国经济进入新模式。 中国经济结构变化显著，新经济、绿色经济、医药经济、生物医药和高 端制造比重上升，房地产比重下降，新兴行业 IPO 占比提高。 技术进步提升中国经济复杂度，接近全球最高端水平，出口结构与欧元 区、日本互补，国产化加速，减少进口需求。 2025 年一季度进口下降但对 GDP 有正贡献，反映需求走弱、经济结构 转型和国产替代效应，进口减少成为积极信号。 Q&A 当前中国宏观经济形势如何？ 当前中国宏观经济形势呈现出一些积极和谨慎的特点。房地产 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The innovative drug industry chain is gradually stabilizing and recovering, with CXO orders rebounding since last year, leading to strong mid-year performance in key segments [1][2][3] - The overall trend for the pharmaceutical sector in Q2 2025 is positive, particularly in innovative drugs and their supply chains, despite recent market fluctuations [2][3] Key Companies and Performance - **Hengrui, Huadong, and China Biopharmaceutical** are expected to achieve double-digit growth in Q2 and for the entire year [1][6] - **WuXi AppTec** aims for a revenue target of 43 billion, with an expected growth of over 15% and faster net profit growth; **WuXi AppTec's** revenue growth is projected at over 35% for the year [1][11] - **Kelaiying** anticipates a revenue growth of over 15% for the year, while **Kanglong Huacheng** expects around 10% growth in revenue and profit for Q2 [1][11][13] - **BaiPuSi and Haoyuan Pharmaceutical** are performing well, with most companies expecting revenue growth of over 20% [1][15] Market Catalysts - Recent adjustments in medical insurance policies and industry conferences (WCLC, ESMO, Ash) are seen as potential catalysts for growth in the innovative drug sector [1][7][9] - The upcoming medical insurance negotiations and directory adjustments are expected to be significant driving forces in the second half of the year [9][10] Investment Opportunities - Despite a recent decline in market sentiment, large-cap companies like **BaiJi, Hengrui, XinDa, Kangfang, and Shiyao** are recommended for investment, along with smaller companies like **Dizhe and Yifangzejin** [10] - The CXO and upstream sectors are highlighted as key investment areas, with strong performance expected due to improved orders and geopolitical factors [19][20] Sector Performance - The medical device sector is still in a clearing inventory phase, with some companies showing good growth, particularly in overseas markets [17][18] - The OTC and traditional Chinese medicine sectors have not shown significant improvement but may see recovery in the second half of the year [5][18] Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the second half of 2025 remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth in the innovative drug sector and supportive external factors [9][24] - The domestic financing environment is expected to improve, with a notable increase in activity anticipated in the latter half of the year [26][38] Conclusion - The innovative drug industry chain, particularly the CXO segment, is positioned for strong growth, supported by favorable market conditions and strategic company performances. Investors are encouraged to focus on key players within this sector for potential opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Zhuosheng Microelectronics Co., Ltd. plans to issue up to 160,457,680 A-shares to raise no more than 3,475 million yuan for expanding RF chip manufacturing capacity and supplementing working capital [1][10]. Group 1: Background and Purpose of the Issuance - The integrated circuit industry is a strategic and foundational sector crucial for national economic and social development, with a focus on enhancing capital strength and profitability [1][2]. - The issuance aims to support the development of the integrated circuit industry, which is expected to benefit from significant opportunities amid global technological changes and domestic policy support [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global integrated circuit industry is entering a period of disruptive technological change, with China's integrated circuit sector poised for major growth [2][3]. - The RF front-end industry is a vital component of the integrated circuit sector, driven by the increasing demand for RF front-end chip solutions due to advancements in communication technology [3][4]. - The global RF front-end module market is projected to reach approximately 26.54 billion USD by 2024, with significant growth driven by the smartphone market and emerging technologies [3][4]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Landscape - China's integrated circuit industry has rapidly developed, with the industry scale expected to grow from 653.2 billion yuan in 2018 to 1,045.8 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.5% [3]. - The domestic RF front-end industry still has a low self-sufficiency rate, with major international players holding about 80% of the global market share [5][6]. - The increasing demand for high-performance domestic RF front-end products presents opportunities for local manufacturers amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][6]. Group 4: Company Strategy and Development - The company has transitioned from a Fabless model to a Fab-Lite model, establishing a complete industrial ecosystem from R&D to sales [7][8]. - The planned issuance will enhance the company's manufacturing capabilities for RF front-end chips, enabling it to meet the growing demand for high-end customized products [8][10]. - The company has developed a strong technical foundation and a stable management team, which will support the successful implementation of the fundraising projects [25][26]. Group 5: Financial Considerations and Impact - The total amount raised from the issuance will be used for expanding RF chip manufacturing capacity and supplementing working capital, which is essential for the company's operational efficiency [10][17]. - The issuance is expected to improve the company's capital structure and reduce financial risks, enhancing its ability to withstand macroeconomic fluctuations [10][11]. - The company aims to maintain a stable profit distribution policy while ensuring that the interests of all shareholders, especially minority investors, are protected [28][29].

Group 1: Investor Relations Activity Overview - The investor relations activity was conducted online on June 27, 2025, with participation from various securities and investment firms [3][4]. - Key attendees included the company's Chairman and General Manager, Xu Aiming, and the Board Secretary and Financial Officer, Zhang Wenjin [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Future Outlook - The company reported stable overall operations in the first half of 2025, with a positive development trend expected to accelerate in the second half due to new projects and production lines coming online [4]. - The first production line of the newly established subsidiary, Mark Surface Treatment Technology (Nantong) Co., Ltd., is expected to commence operations by the end of August 2025, with a second line following by the end of October 2025 [5]. Group 3: Acquisition and Technological Advancements - The acquisition of Tong Yi He Precision Engineering Co., Ltd. is anticipated to enhance the company's technical capabilities and profitability, with no significant overlap in customer bases, thus promising substantial synergy [6]. - The company is collaborating with precision component manufacturers to develop key components for harmonic reducers and planetary gear reducers, aiming to accelerate the domestic replacement process for these critical parts [7][8]. Group 4: International Expansion - The establishment of a joint venture in Slovenia is a strategic move to meet customer demands and expand the company's overseas presence, targeting existing clients like Bosch and Continental Automotive, while also seeking new customers in the European market [9]. - The Slovenian facility will focus on automotive parts, catering to both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, utilizing advanced manufacturing techniques [9].

证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 06 月 30 日 抗战胜利 80 周年纪念活动将举行，军工板块或可布局 【20250623-20250629】 | ◼ | 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数集体反弹，北证 50 涨幅最 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 大，上涨 6.84%；债券市场长短端利率走势不一，一年期国债 | 大同证券研究中心 | | | 下行 1BP，期限利差进一步走阔，长短端 AAA 信用利差均有所 | 分析师：杨素婷 | | | 走阔；基金市场中偏股基金指数和二级债基指数均周度收涨， | 执业证书编号： | | | 中长期纯债周度收跌，短期纯债基金指数周度飘红；申万 31 个 | S0770524020002 | | | 行业涨多跌少，TMT 板块集体反弹。 | 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn | | ◼ | 权益类产品配置策略： | | | ➢ | 事件驱动策略：（1）抗战胜利 80 周年纪念活动将在 9 月 3 | | | | | 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 | | | 日举行，可关注：华安制造先锋 A(006154)、博时军工主题 | 西 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 袁航 A0230521100002 yuanhang@swsresearch.com 李天奇 A0230522080001 litq@swsresearch.com 杨紫璇 A0230524070005 yangzx@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 chenjz@swsresearch.com 联系人 李天奇 (8621)23297818× litq@swsresearch.com 2025 年 06 月 30 日 2Q25 业绩持续增长，重点关注涨 价逻辑及国产替代 看好 —— 电子行业 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共5页 简单金融 成就梦想 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 电子 - ⚫ 先进制程制造：重塑全球半导体版图，自主可控背景下有望实现追赶。先进制程方面中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the chemical industry, particularly focusing on the localization of "choke point" materials to enhance supply chain security and reduce production costs in rapidly expanding sectors like semiconductors, OLED, AR/VR, and humanoid robots [2]. Group 1: Domestic Substitution and Material Localization - The concept of "domestic substitution" has gained attention as China's chemical industry improves its production technology, breaking through overseas technical barriers [2]. - Achieving breakthroughs in "choke point" materials and the localization of equipment and processes is essential for "safe development" [2]. - Enhancing the self-supply capability of upstream materials in industries like semiconductors can improve overall supply chain security [2]. Group 2: COC/COP Materials - COC/COP, a high-end optical material, is recognized for its excellent properties such as high thermal deformation temperature, high transparency, low birefringence, and low dielectric constant [3]. - Currently, the production capacity of COC/COP is mainly held by Japanese manufacturers, but domestic companies are beginning to establish a foundation for industrialization [3]. - Akolai's COC production line has entered trial production in Q3 2024, with plans for a 30,000-ton optical materials project in Hubei [3]. Group 3: PSPI Development - PSPI serves dual functions as both a photoresist and dielectric insulation layer, with applications in integrated circuits, MEMS, and OLEDs [4]. - Domestic companies like Aolide and Dinglong have made breakthroughs in the localization of PSPI, indicating a promising increase in domestic supply [4]. Group 4: Semiconductor Market Outlook - The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach approximately $630.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 19.7% [5]. - The Asia-Pacific region's semiconductor sales are expected to be around $340.79 billion, with a growth rate of 17.5% [5]. - The steady growth of the semiconductor market is anticipated to drive an increase in demand for semiconductor materials, including photoresists and electronic specialty gases [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hunan Chuyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. has officially submitted its IPO application to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, focusing on the research and industrialization of electronic information new materials, particularly photosensitive dry film [1] - The company has achieved a leading market share among domestic enterprises and ranks third globally in the production of photosensitive dry film, which is crucial for PCB manufacturing [1] - The company's revenue and net profit for the years 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 910 million yuan, 890 million yuan, and 1.057 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 160 million yuan, 155 million yuan, and 170 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company plans to raise 1.22 billion yuan through the IPO to invest in high-end photosensitive dry film projects and a research and operation center, as well as to supplement working capital [1] - Future development plans indicate that the PCB industry will continue to evolve towards high precision, high integration, and high frequency, driven by factors such as the new AI innovation cycle and the rapid development of electric and intelligent vehicles [2] - The company aims to maintain its market leadership in photosensitive dry film for PCB applications while actively exploring opportunities in the integrated circuit packaging sector, capitalizing on domestic substitution trends [2]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 半导体 证券研究报告 美光业绩超预期，持续重点看好存储板块龙头江波龙 持续重点关注存储板块，基于存储涨价持续性+AI强催化+国产化加速，上游原厂 DDR4 第三 季合约价预涨 30-40%：1）Q3Q4 存储大板块或持续涨价、2）AI 服务器、PC、手机等带动存 储容量快速升级+HBM、eSSD、RDIMM 等高价值量产品渗透率持续提升拉高板块收入提亮、3） HBM、eSSD、RDIMM、DDR等高难度高速发展产品国产化率持续提升，国内存储市场进一步 加速成长。DDR4/DDR5 来看：订单能见度直达 Q3：DDR4 存储芯片价格跳涨，部分型号已与 DDR5 产品"倒挂"， 4 月初至 6 月中旬，32GB 的 DDR4 RDIMM 现货价格已涨超 30%，64GB 的 DDR4 RDIMM 更是出现 220 美元的报价。威刚科技 DDR4/DDR5 订单全线爆满，产能持续 饱和，工厂连续 5 个月加班生产，系统大厂订单能见度已覆盖至 9 月。涨价红利深度锁定：上 游原厂 DDR4 第三季合约价预涨 30-40%(财迅快报)，公司凭借充沛库存与稳定货源，业绩弹性 与盈利空间显著扩大 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has achieved a turnaround in net profit for Q1 2025, with a significant increase in high-end market revenue share [1][2]. - The semiconductor market in China is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution, reducing reliance on imports and creating growth opportunities for local companies [3]. - The company is focusing on high-value applications, with a notable increase in sales of digital energy devices and significant orders in specialized power supply sectors [8][9]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 354 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, while net profit is expected to decline by 18.77% to 25 million yuan [1]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily from 320 million yuan in 2023 to 537 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.3% [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 29.45%, an increase of 6.26 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company ranks among the top domestic players in the high-power semiconductor device sector, with strong production capacity and quality advantages [3]. - The company maintains long-term stable partnerships with leading enterprises in various electrical systems and industrial control equipment sectors, enhancing its market presence [3][8]. - The focus on high-end clients and applications has led to a significant increase in revenue from high-value power semiconductor devices [8].