Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is more pessimistic, with nickel and stainless steel prices breaking through support levels and declining. In the short term, the prices of both nickel and stainless steel are expected to remain weak and continue to search for a bottom. For nickel, medium - term attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and seasonal recovery signals in demand. For stainless steel, medium - term attention should be on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and seasonal recovery signals in demand. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling strategy and be cautious about bottom - fishing, waiting for the supply - demand inflection point before considering long - position layouts [1][3][4]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 114,540 yuan/ton and closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 157,287 (+27,291) lots, and the open interest was 105,568 (358) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and moving low, breaking through support and reaching a recent low. In the short term, due to the off - season for consumption, downstream demand is difficult to improve significantly, the supply - demand imbalance cannot be changed in the short term, and inventories continue to accumulate [1]. Nickel Ore - According to Mysteel, the nickel ore market is relatively calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, northern mines mainly fulfill previous orders, and mines are holding firm on prices. Downstream factories' production plans remain unchanged, and their mentality of bargaining for raw material nickel ore purchases may ease as they need to stock up before the Chinese New Year. In Indonesia, the (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to decline by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. Overall, the domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 118,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. Low - premium goods are in high demand. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by 300 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,693 (821) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,308 (-84) tons [2]. Group 4: Nickel Strategy - In the short term, the price is expected to remain weak and search for a bottom through oscillations. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and seasonal recovery signals in demand. The operation strategy suggests high - selling, being cautious about bottom - fishing, and considering long - position layouts after the supply - demand inflection point appears. For single - sided operations, range trading is recommended; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2602 opened at 12,480 yuan/ton and closed at 12,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 210,658 (+33,094) lots, and the open interest was 141,751 (-4,171) lots. The contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward pattern and continuing its recent weakness. The daily fluctuation was limited (only 195 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 1.55%). After a brief rise in the morning session, it continued to oscillate downward, and accelerated its decline in the late session, closing near the daily low, forming a relatively long - bodied negative line [3]. Spot - Market sentiment is more pessimistic. Spot prices have followed the decline of futures, but transactions remain difficult. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is also 12,650 (-100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 380 to 580 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 886.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - In the short term, the price is expected to remain weak and search for a bottom through oscillations. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and seasonal recovery signals in demand. The operation strategy suggests high - selling, being cautious about bottom - fishing, and patiently waiting for the supply - demand inflection point before considering long - position layouts. The single - sided operation is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-17 下游支撑减弱，丙烯反弹乏力 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5744元/吨（+6），丙烯华东现货价5975元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6055元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差231元/吨（-6），丙烯华北基差102元/吨（-29）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR204美元/吨（+3），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR44美元/吨（+5），进口利润-346元/吨（+7），厂内库存45960吨（-1930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-0.89%），生产利润-265元/吨（+15）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+0%），生产利润82 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率69%（-6%），生产利润134元/吨（-84）；辛醇开工率77%（+1%），生产利润461元/吨（-89）； 丙烯酸开工率80%（+2%），生产利润358元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-742元/吨（+15）；酚 酮开工率80%（-3%），生产利润-952元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端山东滨华PDH装置重启提负，PDH亏损检修现象仍不明显，丙 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: In the short term, both international and domestic cotton markets face supply pressure and weak demand, but the downside space is limited. In the medium - long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. For domestic cotton, new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space of international sugar prices is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has low valuation, and the short - term downside space is also limited [4] - Pulp: Although the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, the previous negative factors have been digested, and the marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials in the future may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,968 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. As of December 13, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian cotton was 10.1%, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, with obvious inventory - building pressure. In the short term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the medium - long term, the downside space is limited [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton continued to increase in production. Short - term supply is abundant, but the hedging resistance on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of cotton prices is limited [1] Strategy - Be neutral to bullish, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Focus on the change of the cotton target price policy next year [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.42%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.6008 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of December, a year - on - year increase of 37.65% [3] Market Analysis - International: The short - term rebound of raw sugar futures is supported, but the global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space is limited. - Domestic: The supply of Zhengzhou sugar is abundant in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation limits the short - term downside space [4] Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the futures market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton (-1.87%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,075 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Most pulp prices were stable, and a few decreased slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance plans. The Crofton paper mill in Canada will be permanently closed, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down. - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is still at a high level, but it has decreased recently. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity in the future will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Be neutral. The previous negative factors have been digested, but the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, which limits the upward space of pulp prices. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [8]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-17 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 原油端大幅下跌，LPG市场相对坚挺 市场分析 1、\t12月16日地区价格：山东市场，4380-4480；东北市场，4080-4300；华北市场，4300-4420；华东市场，4320-4475； 沿江市场，4640-4960；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4390-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷600美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷590美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4664元/吨，跌42元/吨，丁烷4586元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷594美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷584美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4617元/吨，跌42元/吨，丁烷4539元/吨，跌43元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 虽然原油价格出现大幅下跌，但LPG外盘表现相对坚挺，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each product, the strategies suggest a "sideways" movement: - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron ore: Sideways [2][3] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal coal: The report does not provide a clear strategy but indicates a weak price trend [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall market of black building materials is affected by multiple factors such as environmental protection production restrictions, seasonal production cuts, and changes in supply - demand relationships. Each product shows different supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and most products are in a state of price fluctuations. 3. Summary by Product Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,081 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,246 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average. The low - price transactions in the morning were good, but there were few transactions after price increases, and the basis shrank. The national building materials trading volume was 99,186 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For building materials, there is no significant production pressure currently, and inventory is continuously decreasing. For plates, high inventory continues to suppress prices, but demand resilience remains. In the short term, the supply side is affected by environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, and raw material support may weaken [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 761 yuan, up 0.92%. Spot prices rose slightly, but trading volume was low. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand restocking, with purchase prices mostly following the market [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The demand side of iron ore is currently weak. The steel product market has weak supply and demand, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is not high under the state of small profits, resulting in a continuous decline in hot metal production. Although the demand is weak, the iron ore price remains high due to the tight supply of some varieties at ports and weak liquidity, temporarily covering up the supply - demand contradiction. In the future, as steel mills start seasonal production cuts and are affected by environmental protection production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to further decline. If the port resource liquidity improves, combined with the fundamental supply - demand contradiction, the iron ore price will face significant downward pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures continued the previous pattern of sideways and slightly stronger, and continued to rebound slightly. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, port inventory continued to accumulate, prices fluctuated with the market, and downstream market procurement was cautious, with limited overall trading activity [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking coal currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Coal mines are mainly operating with low supply, and supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream coke has the expectation of further price cuts, and enterprises' enthusiasm for restocking is average, mostly for on - demand procurement. Coke also faces pressure on both supply and demand. Supply has slightly declined, and on the demand side, some steel mills are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, and the winter storage restocking plan has not yet been launched, with a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main producing areas continued to run weakly. Downstream demand was mainly for on - demand hauling, and speculative demand was weak. Most coal mines sold at reduced prices, but sales did not improve, and mine inventory accumulated. At ports, affected by the continuous weakness in the producing areas, port quotes continued to decline. Some traders were extremely pessimistic about the future market, and the phenomenon of selling at a loss intensified. Currently, port inventory is high, the number of anchored ships is small, and the turnover rate has not increased. Traders at ports generally have a pessimistic attitude, believing that the current decline is large and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future. In terms of imports, affected by domestic coal prices, the tender price of imported coal continued to decline, and the market trading atmosphere was cold [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have continued to run weakly, with downstream consumption falling short of expectations and relatively high inventory. Some coal mines have completed their annual tasks, so it is difficult to have significant improvement in supply in the later period. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, as well as coal consumption and restocking [5]. - **Strategy**: The report does not provide a clear trading strategy but mentions factors such as coal mine safety supervision dynamics, port inventory accumulation changes, daily consumption of thermal coal and chemical coal, and other unexpected accidents that need to be concerned [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, with a focus on the 05 contract [4]. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is weakening, while PX is relatively resilient. The geopolitical situation is mostly bearish, and the PXN is firm due to good expectations for the first half of next year. The 1 - 5 month spread of PX has strengthened, but the rebound space of PXN is limited in the seasonal demand off - season [1]. - For TA, the basis has rebounded, and there is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but there will be inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long term, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve after the end of the concentrated production capacity release cycle [2]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.2% (down 0.6% month - on - month). The weaving load has declined, and the start - up rate is expected to further decline in mid - December. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term but may decline around January [2]. - For PF, the production profit has increased, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the demand from downstream yarn mills is weak, and the willingness to stock up is low [3]. - For PR, the processing fee has increased, the load is stable, the inventory has decreased, and the processing interval is expected to slightly expand [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][13]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [24][26]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA and PX loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as in Asia [27][30][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA and PX warehouse receipt inventories, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the long - filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning long - filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, long - filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [47][49][55]. PF Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn start - up rates, production profits, and processing fees, as well as the factory inventory available days [69][73][78]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference with recycled bottle - chips, and month - on - month spreads [90][92][98].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From Dec 9 to Dec 16, 2025, prices of 5mm glass in various regions decreased. For example, the price of 5mm glass at Shache Anquan dropped from 1044.0 to 984.0, a decrease of 60.0; FG05 contract price decreased from 1076.0 to 1038.0, a decrease of 38.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shache's glass production - sales rate was 98, Hubei's was 75, East China's was 94, and South China's was 104. Shache factories had fair production - sales, while Shache traders' low - price sales were average, and futures - spot sales were good. Hubei's factory transactions weakened [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 91.8 to 63.9, a decrease of 27.9; 05FG's spot natural gas profit decreased from - 278.3 to - 313.0, a decrease of 34.6 [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From Dec 9 to Dec 16, 2025, prices of heavy soda ash in some regions increased. For example, Shache's heavy soda ash price increased from 1120.0 to 1140.0, an increase of 20.0; SA05 contract price decreased from 1186.0 to 1170.0, a decrease of 16.0 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Upstream soda ash inventory accumulated, and Yuanxing's second - phase project was put into production. North China's light soda ash price increased by 50.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's ammonia - soda ash profit increased from - 277.1 to - 250.4, an increase of 26.7; North China's combined - soda ash profit increased from - 390.5 to - 363.9, an increase of 26.5 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "low-level oscillation" for soybean meal and "oscillation" for soybean No. 1 [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed lower on December 16, 2025, due to concerns about US export demand and the promising harvest of Brazilian soybeans, which led to some long - position liquidation. The slow pace of China's soybean purchases from the US disappointed traders. The weak energy market also cast a shadow on the soybean market, and the improved outlook for Brazilian soybean production increased the pressure on soybean futures [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 1 2601 closed at 4090 yuan/ton during the day session, down 52 yuan (-1.26%), and 4084 yuan/ton at night, down 18 yuan (-0.44%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2777 yuan/ton during the day session, up 15 yuan (+0.54%), and 2768 yuan/ton at night, up 5 yuan (+0.18%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1063.25 cents/bu, down 9.75 cents (-0.91%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 302.7 dollars/short ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.39%) [2] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3120 yuan/ton, with different basis levels compared to M2605; in East China, it was 3050 - 3120 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 3100 - 3190 yuan/ton. The price changes compared to the previous day varied from region to region [2] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 1.35 million tons/day, and the inventory was 100.92 million tons/week, showing a decrease compared to the previous data [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures fell to a seven - week low. The reasons included concerns about US soybean export demand, the promising harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the slow pace of China's soybean purchases from the US. The weak energy market and the improved rainfall in Brazilian soybean - producing areas also contributed to the decline [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation on the strong side", with an overall "oscillation thinking" [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1125.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.0% [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Recent coking coal production has slightly decreased, while imported Mongolian coal has increased significantly. The supply - side support is limited, and downstream coke production has weakened, with no obvious improvement in the fundamentals [5] - **Market Performance**: As the market trades on supply - side pressure, the long - short game in the coking coal futures has increased recently, and the price has started to oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Price**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, both supply and demand of coke have decreased, and the reduction on the demand side is more obvious, with relatively weak fundamentals [6] - **Market Performance**: In December, domestic high - level meetings have not released direct benefits for coke. The market maintains the fundamental logic. Affected by double pressure from the cost and demand sides, the coke futures will oscillate at a low level in the short term [6]

| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6110 | ୧୦୫୫ | 22 | PF01-02 | 12 | 14 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6098 | 6074 | 24 | PF02-03 | 8 | -46 | ਦੇ ਕੇ | | | 短纤2603 | 6090 | 6120 | -30 | PF主力基差 | 167 | 181 | -14 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 200193 | 246957 | -46764 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 265 | 6, 255 | 10 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 213686 | 209819 | 3867 | 短纤产销率 | 46% | 79% | -33% | | PR | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 5552 | 5530 | 22 | PR01-02 | -102 | -98 | - ...