Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices showed volatility, initially breaking through $4640/oz with a daily increase of 0.56%, then falling to $4580/oz with a daily decrease of 0.76%, and finally breaking back above $4600/oz with a daily increase of 0.02% [1][12] - Spot gold performed strongly, breaking through $4590/oz with a daily increase of 0.08%, reaching a historical high of $4631.34/oz, and ultimately breaking $4630/oz with a daily increase of 0.75% [1][13] - The silver market was also active, with New York silver breaking through $89/oz with a daily increase of 4.61%, previously breaking $88/oz with a daily increase of 3.42%, and finally breaking $87/oz with a daily increase of 0.73% [1][13] Group 2: Basic Metals Futures - Tin's main contract increased by 4% in a single day, currently priced at 398,380.00 yuan [3][15] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - WTI crude oil prices broke through $61/barrel with a daily increase of 2.85% [4][16] - Domestic fuel oil's main contract showed strong performance, increasing by 5% in a single day, currently priced at 2,560.00 yuan, having previously risen by 4% to 2,536.00 yuan [5][17] - The API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 recorded 5.278 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations of -2.238 million barrels and the previous value of -2.766 million barrels [6][18] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - The U.S. has relaxed export controls on Nvidia's H200 chips to China, with related sales now subject to approval and security review by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which will also collect fees from the transactions [7][19] Group 5: Other Market Dynamics - Bitcoin prices continued to rise, breaking through $93,000 (daily increase of 1.98%), $94,000 (daily increase of 2.98%), $95,000 (daily increase of 5.05%), and ultimately surpassing $96,000 with a daily increase of 5.18% [9][21] - Ethereum broke through $3,200 (daily increase of 3.62%) and further surpassed $3,300 with a daily increase of 8.77% [10][22] - Methanol's main contract increased by 2% in a single day, currently priced at 2,308.00 yuan [11][23]

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1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on January 13, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium rose over 7%, silver futures over 5%, tin futures over 4%, and SC crude oil over 2%. On the other hand, container shipping to Europe and palladium dropped over 5%, polysilicon over 4%, glass and platinum over 3%, and caustic soda and coking coal over 2%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows, while others had outflows [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 13, domestic futures main contracts had different trends. Carbonate lithium, silver, tin, and SC crude oil had significant increases, while container shipping to Europe, palladium, and other commodities declined. Stock index futures mostly fell, and treasury bond futures generally rose. As of 15:17 on January 13, some contracts had capital inflows, and some had outflows [4][5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and then declined during the session. In terms of supply, copper smelters are having difficulty making profits from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weakly stable. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may lead to them controlling 15% of the global copper resources. In terms of demand, terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper products sector is cautious. Copper inventory has increased significantly. The market is worried about US copper tariffs, and the high - price copper has suppressed downstream demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar supports copper prices, and the copper market is expected to have limited decline [7]. 3.2.2 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium continued to rise significantly today with a narrowing increase and opened the daily limit at noon. The adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for battery products may lead to a rush - to - export situation. Although the fundamentals are weakening with inventory accumulation, the demand for energy storage batteries is still booming. The market is expected to be strong in the medium and long - term under the stimulation of the rush - to - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production should be noted [9]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan and suspend production increase in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased unexpectedly, but the refined oil inventory increased more than expected. The US oil production is still near the historical high. The market is worried about oil demand, and the global oil supply is in an oversupply situation. The situation in Venezuela and Iran may affect the oil market, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [10][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased. The downstream construction rates mostly declined, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate increased but remained at a low level. The situation in Venezuela may affect the supply and cost of domestic asphalt. The asphalt production rate will remain low, and the demand in the north will slow down, while the winter - storage demand is being released. It is recommended to use the reverse - spread strategy before March [13]. 3.2.5 PP - After the New Year's Day, the downstream PP operating rate decreased slightly. On January 13, the PP enterprise operating rate increased but remained at a low level. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by geopolitical factors, and the new production capacity has been put into operation. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the order volume is decreasing. The macro - economic environment is improving, but the improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15]. 3.2.6 Plastic - On January 13, the plastic operating rate decreased to a neutral level. After the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the agricultural film is out of the peak season, and the order volume is decreasing. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by geopolitical factors, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The downstream demand is expected to decline. The macro - economic environment is improving, but the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][17]. 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still at a low level. The export signing decreased, and the social inventory is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. New production capacity has been put into operation. The macro - economic environment is improving, but the supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. The 03 - 05 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly under the stimulation of the cancellation of the export tax - rebate [18]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and then declined during the session. The spot price increased. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the inventory of mines and coking enterprises increased. The coking enterprise's profit decreased, and the steel mill has a production - resuming expectation but is expected to operate at a low load. The coking coal price is expected to have limited decline [20]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and then declined during the session. The upstream factory price is stable, and the order volume is sufficient. The daily production of urea has increased. The agricultural dealers' fertilizer - preparation enthusiasm has increased, but the industrial demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival. The inventory is at a low level compared to last year. The urea price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term [21].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE in the futures market is 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate is 159,620 yuan/ton, up 4.93% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis is -8,240 points, a negative basis (spot discount), weaker by 4,940 points from the previous day, and the basis has been oscillating in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate is 26,898 lots, an increase of 928 lots (+3.57%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have generally increased in the past 10 trading days. Short - term supply elasticity is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan/ton from the previous day and 29,040 yuan/ton from the previous week; the settlement price is 167,860 yuan/ton, up 12,440 yuan/ton from the previous day and 31,740 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates have increased compared to the previous week, while the prices of South African CIF China lithium spodumene raw ore and some lithium mica prices have also changed. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate is in the range of 2,180 - 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 140 - 150 US dollars/ton from the previous day and 400 - 480 US dollars/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate is 159,620 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,030 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide is 150,560 yuan/ton, up 7,530 yuan/ton from the previous day and 33,000 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary materials and electrolytes have also changed. For example, the price of domestic 111 - type power ternary material is 175,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan/ton from the previous day and 14,000 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of manganese - acid lithium electrolyte is 52,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts showing the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][13][15]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the lithium carbonate main contract [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market currently has relatively sufficient supply with accelerated national cotton inspection and increased port pick - up after quota issuance. Brazilian cotton is arriving in a concentrated manner, leading to an increase in inventory. As of the week ending January 8th, the inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 0.55% week - on - week, reaching a total of 39.95 million tons [2]. - Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level. Some fabric mills may have early holidays. However, the expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year provides some support to the cotton market. The January US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report is positive, and the short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to macro and policy impacts [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,760 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,765 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 182,457 lots, down 11,680 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,939 lots, down 89 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract positions: 837,159 lots, up 19,206 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions: 16,032 lots, down 153 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 8,410 lots, up 642 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, up 10 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,783 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,616 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,735 yuan/ton [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S arrival price): 21,025 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S arrival price): 22,352 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,517 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume (monthly): 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 2,048 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days [2]. - Cloth output (monthly): 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; yarn output (monthly): 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount (monthly): 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, up 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarn, fabric and products export amount (monthly): 12,275,733 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 13.12%, down 0.23%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 13.12%, down 0.22% [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.34%, up 0.14%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.84%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the 2025/26 US cotton January supply - demand outlook, compared with December, production and ending stocks decreased, while beginning stocks and imports remained unchanged. Production decreased by over 2% to 13.9 million bales, mainly due to the decline in the Delta region. The national average yield decreased by 8% to 856 pounds per acre. Ending stocks decreased by 7% to 4.2 million bales [2]. - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday. The US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lowered production estimates. The weaker US dollar and the rise in the broader commodity market further boosted cotton prices. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed up 0.50 cents, or 0.78%, at 64.91 cents per pound [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term V2605 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily K - line focusing on support around 4780 and resistance around 5000. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the low - temperature off - season, and the demand side is weak. The impact of the "rush to export" after the export tax - refund cancellation policy from April needs further observation. PVC capacity utilization is expected to change little. The start - up rate of the chlor - alkali plant in January is generally at a relatively high level. The start - up rate of downstream hard products such as pipes and profiles will decline seasonally before the Spring Festival [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the trading volume is 1,615,530 lots, down 726,208 lots; the open interest is 1,034,623 lots, down 24,293 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1,063,153 lots, down 17,147 lots; the short positions are 1,150,751 lots, down 2,432 lots; the net long positions are - 87,598 lots, down 14,715 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,627.69 yuan/ton, down 11.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,795 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,641.25 yuan/ton, down 0.62 yuan. The CIF price in China is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 610 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 340 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,665 yuan/ton, up 41.67 yuan; in the Northwest, it is 2,491 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 397 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 428 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.67%, up 1.04 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.71%, up 1.35 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.56%, up 0.27 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 546,300 tons, up 21,100 tons; the inventory in the East China region is 501,800 tons, up 21,200 tons; the inventory in the South China region is 44,500 tons, down 100 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.560662 billion square meters, up 31.2717 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 420.2457 billion yuan, up 304.16 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 24.07%, down 0.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.64%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.78%, up 2.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.8%, up 2.3 percentage points [3] Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China was 79.67%, up 1.03% month - on - month. From January 3rd to 9th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.08% to 44.02% month - on - month, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.2% to 35.4% month - on - month, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.44% to 30.22% month - on - month. As of January 8th, the social inventory of PVC was 1,114,100 tons, up 3.48% from the previous period. From January 2nd to 8th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC nationwide increased to 5,061 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,004 yuan/ton month - on - month; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC recovered to - 634 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC recovered to - 192 yuan/ton [3]

Market Overview - As of January 12, the total number of propylene futures warehouse receipts recorded was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a cumulative decrease of 302 lots over the past month, representing a decline of 1.92% [1] - On January 12, the propylene spot price was reported at 5,921 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.85%. Over the past week, the price rose by 176.67 yuan/ton, or 3.08%, while it fell by 299.75 yuan/ton over the past month, a decrease of 4.82% [1] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Futures indicates that multiple favorable factors are driving propylene prices higher, with both futures and spot prices rising. Supply-side factors include expected maintenance of several PDH units, with February operating rates projected to drop significantly to around 65%. Additionally, the imposition of consumption tax on naphtha is expected to raise costs for cracking units, potentially leading to reduced operating loads. Geopolitical uncertainties in Iran may also disrupt costs for propane and methanol, while MTO main units are reporting shutdowns [2] - Demand-side factors show that while polypropylene (PP) operating rates have decreased this week, they remain relatively high, with profit recovery in powder materials leading to a return of external sourcing. The cancellation of export tax rebates for polyether has triggered a rush for exports, providing strong support for propylene demand. Overall, the short-term fundamentals for propylene appear strong, with an upward trend expected [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, China's propylene production for the week of January 2-8 was 1.242 million tons, an increase of 0.38 million tons from the previous week, reflecting a growth rate of 0.31%. The operating rates of downstream propylene factories showed mixed trends, with the highest increase in the operating rate of octanol due to the new capacity of Jiangsu Huachang [3] - Several facilities, including Jiangsu Huachang, Zhejiang Satellite, and Shandong Jianlan, have resumed normal production. However, the operating rate of polypropylene granules has seen the largest decline, primarily due to shutdowns at facilities such as Lihe Zhixin and Donghua Energy. Currently, the supply and demand for propylene are relatively balanced, with futures expected to remain volatile, focusing on support around the 5,900 yuan level [3]

Core Insights - The main point of the news is that lithium carbonate futures have seen a significant increase, with the leading contract rising over 9% as of the report date [1][2] Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures are experiencing a notable price surge, indicating strong market demand or potential supply constraints [1][2]

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新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-13 铝锭库存超季节性累库 铝合金价格方面：2026-01-12保太民用生铝采购价格18000元/吨，机械生铝采购价格18300元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化100元/吨。ADC12保太报价23400元/吨，价格环比昨日变化100元/吨。 铝合金库存：铝合金社会库存6.82万吨，厂内库存6.45万吨。 铝合金成本利润：理论总成本22988元/吨，理论利润312元/吨。 市场分析 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24340元/吨，较上一交易日变化310元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-100元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价24180元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-260元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录24390元/吨，较上一交易日变化290元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-45元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-12日沪铝主力合约开于24560元/吨，收于24650元/吨，较上一交易日变化610元/吨，最 高价达24915元/吨，最低价达到24370元/吨。全天交易日成交655011手，全天交易日持仓379081手。 ...