1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests going long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels and selling put options [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" has raised concerns about US government debt, and the relatively poor long-term US Treasury bond auctions and reports of the Fed's potential bond-buying plan have supported the price of gold. Silver also maintains a relatively strong trend as gold prices rise, but there are doubts about the performance of the photovoltaic sector in the second half of the year [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The fourth round of Japan-US tariff negotiations is scheduled for the 30th, and the Japanese government plans to use 900 billion yen in national funds to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. The EU's "zero-tariff for zero-tariff" proposal is still on the table, and the EU plans to accelerate negotiations with the US. Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise about $3 billion for cryptocurrency investments. Geopolitical tensions include preparations to strike Israel and a refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Western countries have removed the range limit on weapons aid to Ukraine [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 785.00 yuan/gram and closed at 777.30 yuan/gram, down 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 296,331 lots, and the open interest was 216,132 lots. The night session closed at 779.72 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 8,251 yuan/kg and closed at 8,280 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 687,113 lots, and the open interest was 371,701 lots. The night session closed at 8,294 yuan/kg, up 0.29% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.51%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.51%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 23 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 243 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 539,548 lots, down 4.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the number of long positions was 136 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 171 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 925,933 lots, down 9.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 922.46 tons, and the silver ETF position remained unchanged at 14,217.50 tons compared to the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.76 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -474.18 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 93.88, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 100.67, up 0.51% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 61,062 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 325,264 kg, down 12.69% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,820 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 770 yuan/gram and 775 yuan/gram. Silver: It is also recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 7,950 yuan/kg and 8,000 yuan/kg. Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels. Options: Sell put options [8]

2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D778 - 服 热 官 方 线 网 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 市 市 站 需 有 课 风 慎 脸 fet ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | 2025/5/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | | | | | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | 伦敦银现 内外盘金 (美元/盎司) | 日期 | 伦敦金现 (美元/盎司) | | COMEX更令 (美元/盎司) | COMEX白银 (美元/盎司) | AU2508 (元/克) | AG2508 (元/千克) | AU (T+D) (元/克) | AG (T+D) (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格厨房 | 2025/5/26 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Due to concerns about the out - of - control of the US uncompensated public debt caused by the expansion of Trump's second - term tax cuts, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, and the unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 773.86 yuan/g, with a change of - 1.86 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 61,062, and the open interest was 216,312. The inventory was 17,247 (in ten - gram units). The basis (spot - futures) was - 1.25 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 8,239 yuan/kg, with a change of - 5 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 359,242, and the open interest was 3,454,112. The inventory was 957,380 (in ten - gram units). The basis (spot - futures) was - 41 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,357.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 62.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,139, and the open interest was 143,847. The inventory was 38,793,530.21 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 33.64 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.46 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 65,592, and the open interest was 111,871. The inventory was 501,750,232.28 (in troy ounces) [1]. 2. Price Ratios - The price ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 93.43, with a change of - 0.53 compared to the previous day. The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 99.81, with a change of 0.50. The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 100.35, with a change of 0.65 [1]. 3. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 452.80 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 65.03 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 61.76 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77,790 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,554.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,004 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 706.50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Interest Rates**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.51%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.20%, and the US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.33% [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.9388, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1833, and the euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.1269 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,348.3717, the S&P 500 was 5,802.82, the UK FTSE 100 was 8,739.26, the French CAC40 was 7,734.40, the German DAX was 23,629.58, the Nikkei 225 was 36,985.87, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2,621.36 [1]. 4. Important Information - **Trade Negotiations**: After Trump postponed a 50% tariff, the EU planned to "quickly advance" the EU - US trade negotiations. Japan aimed to get tariff concessions from the US by its 2.00 project and shipbuilding technology, striving to reach an agreement by mid - June [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: A Fed voter next year said the easing pause might be longer. The ECB President Lagarde thought the euro could be an alternative to the US dollar. The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the CBO predicted the Treasury funds might run out between August and October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The European Central Bank might cut interest rates in June and twice more by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in June. The Bank of Japan might raise interest rates around July [1].

操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3320-3325区域做多，止损在3312，目标看3355-3385，破位持有 受特朗普宣布暂停对欧盟加征高关税影响，市场避险情绪降温，现货黄金开盘后震荡下行，货币政策方面，欧洲 央行管委西姆库斯称6月仍存降息可能，美联储卡什卡利则表示9月前利率调整方向"尚不确定"。最新CME"美联 储观察"数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率为5.6%；7月累计降息25个基点的概率 升至23.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为1.1%。综合来看，当前美国与多国的贸易谈判持续推进，翁富豪建议 大家重点关注谈判进展及地缘局势变化对黄金市场的影响。 从技术面分析来看，月线级别呈现四连阳走势，前三个上涨月后均出现单月回调，当前已连续四个月收涨，五月 份翁老师提醒需重点关注市场风险。周线级别显示黄金在3160区域获得有效支撑，中期看多观点维持不变，只有 跌破该支撑位才会转为下行压力。日线级别当前支撑位于3278区域，价格在此上方运行则保持上行趋势。四小时 级别关键支撑在3320-3325区间，这也是昨日低点位置，正如预期价格在此止跌回升，只要不跌破该区间就继续 关注上行走势； ...

Group 1 - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, following President Trump's agreement to postpone the 50% tariffs on EU goods from June 1 to July 9, which has improved market risk appetite and boosted European stock indices [1] - Major European stock indices rose, with the French CAC40 index up 1.21% and the German DAX index up 1.68%, while the automotive and parts index increased by 1.7% [1] - Luxury goods stocks, heavily reliant on the US market, saw gains, with Kering, LVMH, and Richemont all closing higher [1] Group 2 - Volvo Cars announced a reduction of 3,000 jobs as part of a restructuring plan to address high costs, slowing demand for electric vehicles, and tariff uncertainties, primarily affecting office positions in Sweden, which represent about 15% of global office staff [1] - Volvo's stock price in Sweden rose over 3% following the announcement of the layoffs [1] Group 3 - Brent crude oil prices fell to $64.74 per barrel, down 0.06%, as positive news from US-EU trade negotiations eased market concerns, despite a report showing a decrease in the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US [1] - The number of operational oil drilling rigs in the US dropped to 465, the lowest level since November 2021, indicating that energy companies are cutting back on production in a low oil price environment [1] - OPEC+ has moved the date of its July production meeting forward to May 31, with expectations of a significant increase in production [1] Group 4 - International gold prices retreated as positive trade news dampened investor risk aversion, with June gold futures fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,350 per ounce, showing a slight decline from the previous trading day [2] - Due to an early market close, New York gold futures did not have a closing price for the day [2]

Core Viewpoint - South Africa and the United States are set to negotiate a "suitable price" for LNG imports, which will include American investments in natural gas infrastructure and technical cooperation, including hydraulic fracturing [1] Group 1 - The proposed trade package includes a duty-free quota for automobiles and auto parts exported from South Africa to the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union plans to expedite trade negotiations with the United States [1] Group 1 - The EU aims to enhance economic ties with the US through accelerated trade talks [1] - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to strengthen transatlantic relations [1] - The negotiations are expected to address various trade barriers and promote mutual economic benefits [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply - side: Primary lead smelters'开工率 and output declined due to unclear lead prices; recycled lead smelters cut开工率 due to losses and raw material constraints [2] - Demand - side: Market transactions were generally weak, providing limited support for lead prices [2] - Inventory: Overseas inventory increased, and demand was significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventory decreased slightly, but overseas prices restricted the upward space of domestic prices [2] - Processing fees: Lead concentrate processing fees remained low, affecting the resumption of recycled and primary lead production [2] - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,795 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 1,994 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars [2] - The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead was 0 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Shanghai lead position was 73,292 lots, up 255 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,773 lots, up 665 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt was 32,950 tons, down 6,377 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 48,428 tons (weekly), down 7,044 tons; the LME lead inventory was 294,025 tons, down 1,800 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,675 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 17.65 dollars/ton, up 4.72 dollars [2] - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 15,945 yuan/ton, down 133 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,620 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [2] - The production enterprise number of recycled lead was 68 (monthly), up 3; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 54.41%, down 1.87%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 million tons, down 6.75 million tons [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average开工率 of primary lead was 73.88% (weekly), down 0.78%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.43 million tons, down 0.02 million tons [2] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 20 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons (monthly), up 48.8 thousand tons [2] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 399.7 thousand tons (monthly), down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 720 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged [2] - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,066.07 yuan/ton, up 26.78 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,575 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other batteries was 1,645.4 points, down 21.49 points; the monthly automobile output was 304.46 million vehicles, down 45.4 million vehicles [2] - The monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 million vehicles, up 7.3 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump resumed a 90 - day trade negotiation window with the EU after von der Leyen contacted him. Trump previously proposed a 50% tariff on the EU from June 1st, and the EU Commission refused to comment until the EU trade commissioner talked with the US trade representative [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said the 50% tariff threat was a response to the EU's slow action. The US had made significant progress in trade negotiations with India and Asian countries and would announce more agreements in the next 90 days. The Trump administration suspended the plan to create a sovereign wealth fund [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru talked with Trump for 45 minutes, and Trump did not mention tariffs. Ishiba Shigeru reiterated the request to cancel tariffs, and Japan intended to reach a tariff agreement with the US before the G7 summit in June [2]

1、特朗普恢复与欧盟为期90天的贸易谈判窗口，此前冯德莱恩主动与之联系。此前特朗普称与欧盟的 讨论毫无进展，建议从6月1日起对欧盟直接征收50%的关税；欧盟委员会拒绝就美国贸易关税发表评 论，直到欧盟贸易专员与美国贸易代表通电话。 2、美国财长贝森特：50%的关税威胁是对欧盟行动速度的回应，希望这样做能激励欧盟采取行动。美 国在与印度及亚洲国家的贸易谈判方面已取得了显著进展。将在未来90天内宣布更多协议；特朗普政府 暂停了创建主权财富基金的计划。 北京时间周一（5月26日）亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.90附近，现货白银今日开盘于33.44美元/盎 司，目前交投于33.50美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于8250元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于8280元/千克附 近。日内无可关注的数据及事件，另外，由于美国阵亡将 纪念 ，贵金属市场将于美盘时段提前休市， 故此日内白银价格波动走势有限，或震荡走盘对待。 上周五(5月23日)美元指数跌0.81%，收报99.13，现货白银收涨33.48美元/盎司，上涨1.33%，在现货白 银上涨之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货黄金上涨1.89%，报3357.00美元/盎司，现货铂金收涨 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 李萌】美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）23日报道称，据美国国务院和中国 外交部当天消息，双方官员在22日进行了通话。CNBC称，这是中美日内瓦经贸会谈后的首次通话，报 道援引专家的话表示，这是一个"积极信号"。 据中国外交部消息，22日，外交部副部长马朝旭同美国常务副国务卿兰多通电话，就中美关系及共同关 心的重要问题交换了意见。双方同意继续保持沟通。美国国务院的声明写道："双方一致认为，双边关 系对两国人民乃至世界人民都至关重要……并一致认为保持沟通渠道畅通至关重要。" 彭博社称，这次通话表明，双方在本月初就关税发表联合声明后，仍保持积极沟通。CNBC称，美中在 关于通话的通稿中未明确提及是否讨论了关税，但声明措辞相近，"这表明双方将继续保持高层接触， 努力达成更广泛的协议"。 CNBC引述欧亚集团中国区总监王丹的话称，虽然此次通话可能并不代表正在进行的贸易谈判取得突 破，但释放了一个"积极信号"，说明"日内瓦会谈中建立的沟通渠道正在发挥作用"。 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯23日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，此次马朝旭与兰多的通话 是特朗普第二任期以来中美之间的第二次外交级别 ...