Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The easing of risk aversion demand dragged down the gold price. Yesterday, Japan considered cutting the issuance plan of long - term bonds, and consumer confidence improved more than expected, leading to a decline in precious metals [1]. - The short - term trend of gold depends on the battle for key support levels and signals from the Fed's policies. In the long run, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the surge in China's gold imports in April may provide resilience to the gold price, but short - term technical selling pressure and policy risks need to be watched out for [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - EU officials have asked major EU companies and CEOs to provide details of their investment plans in the US. After Trump revoked the threat of high - tariff on EU imports, the EU is preparing to advance trade negotiations with Washington [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in Kuala Lumpur that economic globalization is experiencing unprecedented major shocks, and it is necessary to deepen mutual trust and expand opening - up [2]. - Japan will consider cutting the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds after the sharp rise in yields to ease market concerns about the deterioration of government finances [2][3]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell yesterday, breaking through the key support of $3,300 in the afternoon. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors, and market sentiment is affected by trade progress and economic data differentiation [3]. - US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, but the March data was revised up to 7.6%, and the consumer confidence index rebounded to 98.0. Trump's plan to conduct trade negotiations with the EU weakened gold's safe - haven appeal. The strengthening of the US dollar offset the potential support of the decline in US Treasury yields on the gold price [3]. Outlook - Next week, focus on the US April PCE data and the first - quarter real GDP data, and continuously monitor changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold range is [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver range is [32, 35] [5].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-28 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-28 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 前 4 个月全国规模以上工业企业利润增长 1.4% 观点分享： 5 月 27 日国家统计局公布数据显示，1 至 4 月份，规模以上工业企业利润增长 1.4%，较 1 至 3 月份加快 0.6 个百分点，延续恢复向好态势。从行业看，在 41 个工业大类行业中，有 23 个行业利润同比增长，增长面近六成。4 月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0%， 较 3 月份加快 0.4 个百分点。分行业看，农副食品加工业利润同比增长 45.6%，有色金属冶 炼和压延加工业增长 24.5%，电气机械和器材制造业增长 15.4%，专用设备制造业增长 13.2%，通用设备制造业增长 11.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长 11.6%，电 力、热力生产和供应业增长 5.6%，纺织业增长 3.7%，非金属矿物制品业下降 1.6%，化学原 料和化学制品制造业下降 4.4%，汽车制造业下降 5.1%，石油和天然气开采业下降 6.9%，煤 炭开采和洗选业下降 48 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The domestic commodity market is weak, and overseas trade negotiations have a fluctuating impact on market sentiment. The economic slowdown risk and its impact on the market need to be noted under the repeated trade situation. - **Copper**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. In the short - term, supply disruptions may cause the copper price to rise, and the futures spread may widen. In the medium - term, economic slowdown risk should be monitored [2]. - **Aluminum**: The low inventory of aluminum provides strong support, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the futures spread likely to widen [4]. - **Lead**: The decline in recycled lead production may deepen the downward space of lead price if the scrap price drops further [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk with the accumulation of social inventory [7]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to loosen, and the lack of significant growth in terminal orders may cause the tin price to decline [8][9]. - **Nickel**: The short - term fundamentals of nickel have slightly improved, but the overall situation is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [12]. - **Alumina**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern due to weak demand and cost support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.19% to $9596/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78100 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2575 to 162150 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.5 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: Raw material supply is tight, and the short - term supply disruption may push up the price. The reference range for SHFE copper is 77600 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is $9500 - 9700/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.69% to $2483/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20180 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 5.7 million tons, and the three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly by 0.1 to 41.4 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: Low inventory supports the price, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is $2440 - 2500/ton [4]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.15% to 16818 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 3.73 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The decline in recycled lead production may lead to a further decline in lead price [5]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.51% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2691.5/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The supply of zinc concentrate is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk [7]. Tin - **Price**: Tin price oscillated narrowly. - **Inventory**: SMM three - place inventory increased by 374 to 10333 tons. - **Supply - demand**: The supply and demand of tin are both weak. The supply is expected to loosen, and the lack of order growth may cause the price to decline. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31000 - 33000/ton [8][9]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel price oscillated weakly. - **Supply - demand**: The supply of refined nickel is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall situation is bearish. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index rose 0.34%, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.36%. - **Supply - demand**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly. The reference range for the LC2507 contract is 60220 - 61620 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 1.34% to 3015 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.69 to 14.35 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The over - capacity pattern remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12855 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased by 4510 to 134611 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.85% to 111.77 million tons. - **Supply - demand**: The market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern due to weak demand and cost support [16].

美股全线爆发。 欧美谈判利好引爆美股市场，美东时间周二，美股三大指数集体大幅收涨，道指大涨超740点，纳指、标普500 指数均涨超2%。美股大型科技股全线走强，特斯拉大涨近7%。 分析认为，美股市场全线爆发的主要原因是，贸易紧张局势出现了缓和迹象，欧美将加快贸易谈判进程，重燃 了市场乐观情绪，VIX恐慌指数隔夜大跌超7%。另外，美国总统特朗普周二表示，对欧盟加快贸易谈判进程 感到鼓舞。 与此同时，美国5月消费者信心指数大幅反弹，这也提振了美股市场信心。据最新发布的报告，美国5月消费者 信心指数上升12.3点至98，大幅高于预期的87，这是自去年11月以来的首次月度增长，也是自2021年3月以来 的最大月度增幅。 美股全线大涨 美东时间5月27日，美股三大指数全线爆发，截至收盘，道指大涨超740点，涨幅达1.78%；纳指大涨2.47%， 标普500指数涨2.05%。 美股大型科技股集体大涨，截至收盘，美国科技股七巨头（Magnificent 7）指数涨2.93%，费城半导体指数涨 3.38%。其中，英伟达涨3.21%，博通涨3.03%，谷歌A涨2.63%，苹果涨2.53%，亚马逊涨2.5%，Meta涨 2.43 ...

Group 1 - French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz both expressed concerns regarding US tariff policies and emphasized the need for fair competition in trade negotiations with the US [4][9] - Macron stated that the EU aims to establish a peaceful investment and trade framework with the US, advocating for lower tariffs to enhance productive trade [4] - The EU has initiated or advanced trade negotiations with countries like Mexico, Malaysia, India, and South Africa, indicating a strategy to diversify trade markets beyond the US [5] Group 2 - The EU's stance has become firmer, with officials indicating that they will not accept an unfair trade agreement, contrasting with US expectations [4][5] - Merz highlighted that US tech companies currently enjoy significant protection in the EU, suggesting a potential shift in this dynamic [9] - The EU has proposed a countermeasure list against US tariffs valued at €95 billion, targeting American products such as cars, civilian aircraft, and bourbon whiskey, indicating a strategic approach to exert pressure on the US [9]

Group 1 - The US President Trump has decided to abandon the threat of imposing a 50% tariff on EU imports starting next month, which led to a temporary drop in gold prices to around $3323, but buying support and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine helped gold prices recover, closing at $3337.93 per ounce on Monday [1] - On Tuesday morning, spot gold showed slight gains, trading around $3340.70 per ounce [2] - The US dollar index fell to 98.55 on Monday, marking a new low since April 29, which also provided support for gold prices [4] Group 2 - The trade negotiation window between the US and EU is set to last until July 9, with EU Commission President von der Leyen indicating a willingness to act swiftly and decisively in negotiations, contingent on Trump returning to the original 90-day negotiation period [6] - ECB President Lagarde stated that Trump's erratic policies present a unique opportunity to strengthen the euro's international status, suggesting that European decision-makers are looking to leverage the situation to enhance the euro's position [7] - A recent study by the German Economic Institute indicates that Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a cumulative loss of €200 billion for the German economy from 2025 to 2028, potentially increasing to €250 billion if the EU implements reciprocal measures [8]

Group 1 - The EU is accelerating trade negotiations with the US, focusing on key industries and addressing tariff and non-tariff barriers [1] - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will lead political negotiations in sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation [1] - The EU submitted a proposal to the US to enhance cooperation in the aforementioned sectors, which are either affected by US tariffs or are potential targets for future tariffs [1] Group 2 - The EU's proposal to lower tariffs and collaborate on global challenges was rejected by the US, prompting threats of increased tariffs from President Trump [2] - Ongoing negotiations have faced challenges, with unclear US demands and accusations of unfair targeting of US companies by the EU [5] - The EU has approved tariffs on US goods worth €21 billion (approximately $23.8 billion) in response to US tariffs on metal products, with additional tariffs on $95 billion worth of US products planned [5] Group 3 - Some EU member states are urging the EU to prepare for potential further actions from President Trump, particularly in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors [6] - German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil expressed the need for a quick resolution and maintained cautious optimism about reaching an agreement [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests going long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels and selling put options [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" has raised concerns about US government debt, and the relatively poor long-term US Treasury bond auctions and reports of the Fed's potential bond-buying plan have supported the price of gold. Silver also maintains a relatively strong trend as gold prices rise, but there are doubts about the performance of the photovoltaic sector in the second half of the year [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The fourth round of Japan-US tariff negotiations is scheduled for the 30th, and the Japanese government plans to use 900 billion yen in national funds to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. The EU's "zero-tariff for zero-tariff" proposal is still on the table, and the EU plans to accelerate negotiations with the US. Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise about $3 billion for cryptocurrency investments. Geopolitical tensions include preparations to strike Israel and a refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Western countries have removed the range limit on weapons aid to Ukraine [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 785.00 yuan/gram and closed at 777.30 yuan/gram, down 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 296,331 lots, and the open interest was 216,132 lots. The night session closed at 779.72 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 8,251 yuan/kg and closed at 8,280 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 687,113 lots, and the open interest was 371,701 lots. The night session closed at 8,294 yuan/kg, up 0.29% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.51%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.51%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 23 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 243 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 539,548 lots, down 4.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the number of long positions was 136 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 171 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 925,933 lots, down 9.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 922.46 tons, and the silver ETF position remained unchanged at 14,217.50 tons compared to the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.76 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -474.18 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 93.88, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 100.67, up 0.51% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 61,062 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 325,264 kg, down 12.69% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,820 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 770 yuan/gram and 775 yuan/gram. Silver: It is also recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 7,950 yuan/kg and 8,000 yuan/kg. Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels. Options: Sell put options [8]

2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D778 - 服 热 官 方 线 网 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 市 市 站 需 有 课 风 慎 脸 fet ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | 2025/5/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | | | | | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | 伦敦银现 内外盘金 (美元/盎司) | 日期 | 伦敦金现 (美元/盎司) | | COMEX更令 (美元/盎司) | COMEX白银 (美元/盎司) | AU2508 (元/克) | AG2508 (元/千克) | AU (T+D) (元/克) | AG (T+D) (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格厨房 | 2025/5/26 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Due to concerns about the out - of - control of the US uncompensated public debt caused by the expansion of Trump's second - term tax cuts, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, and the unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 773.86 yuan/g, with a change of - 1.86 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 61,062, and the open interest was 216,312. The inventory was 17,247 (in ten - gram units). The basis (spot - futures) was - 1.25 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 8,239 yuan/kg, with a change of - 5 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 359,242, and the open interest was 3,454,112. The inventory was 957,380 (in ten - gram units). The basis (spot - futures) was - 41 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,357.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 62.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,139, and the open interest was 143,847. The inventory was 38,793,530.21 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 33.64 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.46 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 65,592, and the open interest was 111,871. The inventory was 501,750,232.28 (in troy ounces) [1]. 2. Price Ratios - The price ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 93.43, with a change of - 0.53 compared to the previous day. The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 99.81, with a change of 0.50. The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 100.35, with a change of 0.65 [1]. 3. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 452.80 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 65.03 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 61.76 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77,790 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,554.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,004 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 706.50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Interest Rates**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.51%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.20%, and the US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.33% [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.9388, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1833, and the euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.1269 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,348.3717, the S&P 500 was 5,802.82, the UK FTSE 100 was 8,739.26, the French CAC40 was 7,734.40, the German DAX was 23,629.58, the Nikkei 225 was 36,985.87, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2,621.36 [1]. 4. Important Information - **Trade Negotiations**: After Trump postponed a 50% tariff, the EU planned to "quickly advance" the EU - US trade negotiations. Japan aimed to get tariff concessions from the US by its 2.00 project and shipbuilding technology, striving to reach an agreement by mid - June [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: A Fed voter next year said the easing pause might be longer. The ECB President Lagarde thought the euro could be an alternative to the US dollar. The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the CBO predicted the Treasury funds might run out between August and October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The European Central Bank might cut interest rates in June and twice more by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in June. The Bank of Japan might raise interest rates around July [1].