Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to operate weakly with a volatile trend on Tuesday, February 13, 2026 [1][5][7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weakly. Overall, it is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, geopolitical risks have weakened, and the expectation of a decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply has dissipated, reducing the bullish drive. Currently, the domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is still in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the previous bullish factors are digested, the Shanghai rubber futures opened high and closed low on the night of Monday, maintaining a volatile and stable trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weakly. Overall, it is expected to operate weakly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. The Shanghai rubber futures maintain a volatile and strong pattern, indirectly supporting the synthetic rubber futures. After the previous bullish factors are digested, the synthetic rubber futures opened high and closed low on the night of Monday, maintaining a volatile and weak trend [7].

021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 日期 2026 年 1 月 13 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：1月12日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 31 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The USDA's January supply and demand report had an unexpectedly bearish impact on the soybean market, causing a significant drop in US soybean futures prices and potentially dragging down domestic soybean futures prices. The overall short - term soybean futures prices have weakened due to the lower import cost support [5][6]. - The palm oil market is in a game between potential policy benefits from Indonesia and the high inventory pressure in Malaysia. The short - term palm oil futures price rebound is approaching the upper limit of the range, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weak; Reference view: weak [5]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA raised the US 2025/26 soybean production forecast, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the US soybean inventory. It also raised the Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts, leading to an increase in the global soybean ending inventory forecast. These factors put pressure on US soybean futures prices and may drag down domestic soybean futures prices [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The strong palm oil export data in early January in Malaysia effectively offset the neutral impact of the MPOB December report. The market is in a game between the potential policy benefits from Indonesia and the high inventory pressure in Malaysia, and the futures price is approaching the upper limit of the range and may fluctuate [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Night trading of protein meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) closed higher. The expected high yield of South American soybeans and high domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to pressure prices, but the suspension and resumption of imported soybean auctions and strong downstream demand have affected the price trend [3]. - Night trading of oils was strong. The December MPOB report on palm oil was in line with market expectations, with production down and exports up, and inventory growth within expectations, having a neutral impact on the market. Soybean oil prices are supported by supply concerns, and it is expected that soybean and palm oils will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 7994 for soybean oil, 8724 for palm oil, 8980 for rapeseed oil, 2790 for soybean meal, 2770 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 0, 42, - 62, 4, - 18, and 26 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.48%, - 3.15%, 0.14%, - 0.65%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, and the M9 - 1 spread changing from - 179 to - 238 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 3970 ringgit/ton for BMD palm oil, 1051 cents/bushel for CBOT soybeans, 50.35 cents/pound for CBOT soybean oil, and 298 dollars/ton for CBOT soybean meal. The price changes were - 15, - 12, 1, and - 5 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.38%, - 1.15%, 1.39%, and - 1.78% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.12%, while the prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil decreased by 0.35% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current basis and spreads of domestic spot products have also changed compared to the previous values, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 526, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [2]. Import Profit and Crush Margin - The current import profit and crush margin values of various imported products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 235 to - 232, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed changed from 581 to 577 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the warehouse receipts of soybean oil changed from 29,426 to 29,197, and the warehouse receipts of palm oil changed from 560 to 1,248 [2]. Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 10 increased by 17.65% compared to the same period last month, reaching 466,457 tons [3]. - According to MPOB data, Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1,829,761 tons, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1,316,522 tons, and inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [3]. - As of the week of January 3, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 98.2%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1%, with a high - yield expectation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market for ferrosilicon remains strong, with the futures price fluctuating widely. For silicomanganese, the price quotes of overseas mining companies have increased, also leading to wide - range fluctuations in the futures price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2603 has a closing price of 5698, up 66 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 201,430 and an open interest of 224,722. Ferrosilicon 2605 has a closing price of 5674, up 62, a trading volume of 37,475, and an open interest of 65,353 [1] - Silicomanganese 2603 has a closing price of 5930, up 26, a trading volume of 144,766, and an open interest of 257,314. Silicomanganese 2605 has a closing price of 5942, up 16, a trading volume of 80,236, and an open interest of 247,341 [1] - **Spot Data**: - The aggregated price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump is 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: - The spot - futures price difference for ferrosilicon (spot - 03 futures) is - 348 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; for silicomanganese, it is - 230 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [1] - The near - far month price difference for ferrosilicon 2603 - 2605 is 24 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; for silicomanganese 2603 - 2605 is - 12 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [1] - The cross - variety price difference for silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 is 232 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; for silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 268 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Spot Price**: - On January 12, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), in Ningxia is 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), etc. The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), in Inner Mongolia is 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars), 75 is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars). The northern quote of silicomanganese 6517 is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quote is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2] - **Manganese Ore Price**: - Jupiter announced the February 2026 shipment price of manganese ore to China: the price of South African semi - carbonate lump with Mn36.5% (typical value) is 4.32 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.17 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month. South32's offer of South African semi - carbonate lump (typical value Mn36.9%) in February 2026 is 4.4 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.25 dollars/ton - degree; the offer of Australian lump (typical value Mn42%) is 5.1 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.25 dollars/ton - degree. Comilog's offer of Gabonese lump to China in February 2026 is 4.9 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree. United Mining (CML)'s offer to China in February 2026 for Australian lump with Mn > 46%, Fe < 6%, SiO2 < 18% is 5.2 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree [2][3] - **Steel Mill Procurement**: - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of silicomanganese in early January at 5935 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton from the end - December price; another steel mill in Jiangsu set the price at 5940 yuan/ton in January, with a procurement volume of 6000 tons, up 192 yuan/ton from the December price. On January 9, a steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of ferrosilicon at 5800 - 5830 yuan/ton, with a volume of 1500 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "High-level Volatility" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is in a narrow-range volatile adjustment. The futures are in a high-level consolidation, with general near-term buying at ports and some selling at high prices. Attention is on the shutdown of some coastal MTO plants. Inland upstream enterprises continue the initiative to reduce prices for shipment at the beginning of the week, with significant sales volume in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. However, due to weak downstream demand, the transfer of goods in the trading link is not smooth, and the trading atmosphere is stalemate. [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of methanol ports in China continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of methanol's main contract was 2,263 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,267 yuan/ton, up 22; the trading volume was 1,462,981 lots; the open interest of the 05 - contract was 863,591 lots, up 50,636; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,655 tons, unchanged; the trading value was 3,316,989 ten - thousand yuan, down 170,749. The basis was - 6, up 25; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 38, down 5. [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,825 yuan/ton, up 10; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 15; the price in Shandong was 2,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 1,996.20, up 5.90. The spot price in Taicang was 2,260, up 18, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 1,837.5, up 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 8 cities had price increases ranging from 5 to 30 yuan/ton. [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 7, 2026, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory mainly accumulated in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign ships unloading during the period. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [5]

Group 1: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current market supply is sufficient, pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, and overall market transactions are light. Futures warehouse receipts are gradually increasing. Attention should be paid to the destocking progress of social inventory. In the short term, there is no obvious driver in the fundamentals, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts have different degrees of changes, with the 2609 contract rising 0.48%. The 5 - 7 spread increased by 11.11%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 21.88%. The position decreased by 0.36%, while the warehouse receipts increased by 11.77%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 23.25% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained stable or slightly decreased. The basis of special - grade red dates to the main contract increased by 82.61%, and that of first - grade red dates decreased by 4.00% [1]. Group 2: Apples Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory. With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, market activity has increased. In the medium - to - long term, good - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption. Other fruits with price advantages will squeeze the apple market, and the inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. Therefore, the futures market will fluctuate at a high level, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main) contract decreased by 0.61%, and the 2610 contract increased by 0.11%. The basis increased by 3.96%, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 5.59%. The position decreased by 10.69% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets increased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the factory - warehouse delivery profit decreased by 4.38% [3]. Group 3: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View ICE raw - sugar futures closed down, but the decline was limited by the weakening dollar. The market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - crushing season starting in April. The rainfall in Brazil is conducive to sugar - cane growth, and India's production is strong, while Thailand's crushing progress is slow. Overall, raw - sugar prices will fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, in line with market expectations. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, transactions are acceptable, and enterprises mainly sell at market prices. Considering the expected increase in production, the market is cautious, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 contracts decreased, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.47%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 45.45%. The position of the main contract decreased by 0.33%, the warehouse receipts increased by 48.86%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 42.38% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Nanning and Kunming decreased or remained stable. The basis of Nanning decreased by 8.54%, and that of Kunming increased by 5.17%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased [10]. Group 4: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher. The January USDA supply - and - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lower production estimates. The drought index in the US cotton - growing areas continued to rise, but it is still early for sowing. USDA export sales have declined continuously, and export expectations may be lowered. It is expected that US cotton will maintain a low - level fluctuation pattern. Zhengzhou cotton is supported by the rigid demand of textile enterprises at low prices, but the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed. The fundamental positives have been fully priced in, and the adverse factors are increasing. Overall, the upward trend remains, but in the short term, cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 contracts decreased, and the ICE cotton main contract increased by 0.12%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.11%. The position decreased by 3.66%, the warehouse receipts increased by 5.14%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 4.57% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang's 3128B cotton and CC Index 3128B decreased. The basis of 3128B to the 05 and 09 contracts decreased [13]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, industrial inventory decreased by 0.2%, imports increased by 33.3%, and bonded - area inventory increased by 15.8%. The inventory days of yarn and grey fabric changed, and the processing profit and retail sales of related products also changed [13]. Group 5: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Snowfall in the Northeast affects the supply, and downstream pre - festival stocking supports prices. Futures price increases boost market sentiment, and prices in the producing areas and northern ports are strong. In North China, the grain - selling rhythm is stable, and prices fluctuate slightly. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises still have the intention to replenish stocks, but their acceptance of high - priced corn is limited. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and mainly conduct rolling replenishment. In terms of policies, the targeted auction of imported corn and the release of policy corn continue, but the scale is limited. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the rigid - demand stocking intention of downstream enterprises support the strong operation of corn prices. Attention should be paid to changes in farmers' selling attitudes and policy releases [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Corn Futures Market**: The price of the corn 2603 contract increased by 1.19%. The basis decreased by 25.37%, the 3 - 7 spread increased by 115.38%, and the position increased by 3.99%. The warehouse receipts increased by 4.16% [16]. - **Corn Starch Futures Market**: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract decreased by 1.22%. The basis decreased by 16.85%, the 3 - 7 spread increased by 38.30%, and the position increased by 1.46%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Group 6: Oils Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Palm Oil**: After the release of the MPOB report's negative news and the support of positive export data, crude palm - oil futures may rise to 4200 - 4250 ringgit. In the domestic market, affected by the synchronous rise of Malaysian palm oil and pre - festival stocking expectations, Dalian palm - oil futures may continue to strengthen and approach 9000 yuan [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report is bearish, CBOT soybeans will enter a stagnant - rise and callback phase, and CBOT soybean oil may follow. In the domestic market, the inventory of factory soybean oil is decreasing, but the USDA reports are bearish, and Dalian soybean oil will be dragged down, with the market testing the support at 7900 yuan [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The limited increase in international crude oil has weak support for the domestic vegetable - oil market. The visit of the Canadian prime minister has raised concerns about a loose supply of rapeseed oil. Rapeseed oil fell rapidly after reaching the 9000 - yuan mark. However, due to the unclear Sino - Canadian trade relationship and the digestion of negative news about Malaysian palm - oil inventory, the probability of large - scale short - selling is low, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation pattern. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high due to the delay in crushing [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of Y2605 and P2605 contracts changed. The positions and warehouse receipts of palm oil and soybean oil also had different degrees of changes [19]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu's first - grade soybean oil, Guangdong's 24 - degree palm oil, and Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil changed, and the basis and import costs also changed [19]. Group 7: Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Spot prices have returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig slaughter has decreased, while southern demand has dropped significantly, suppressing spot prices. Although there is still some second - fattening replenishment in some areas, due to the relatively high current pig prices, the overall enthusiasm is limited. The market expects an increase in supply. Although there is speculation about pre - Spring Festival consumption, it is expected that pigs will be slaughtered in mid - to - late January, and with the expected increase in supply from large - scale farms, the supply in January will be relatively abundant. The upward space for the phased futures market is limited, and it is recommended to short at high prices [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the main contracts of live pigs changed, the basis of the main contract was 1165, and the position increased by 0.84%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged [22]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of live pigs in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan changed. The slaughter volume, white - strip prices, and other indicators also had different degrees of changes [20][21]. Group 8: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profits, reducing farmers' enthusiasm for culling laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to the weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. Overall, the supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and procurement is increasing. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, festival stocking has started, but household consumption has not changed significantly. The increase in demand is mainly reflected in inventory turnover. After the recent price increase, there is short - term digestion pressure, and prices may decline slightly. Considering the relatively loose supply, it is expected that futures prices will fluctuate at a low level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased. The basis increased by 59.63%, and the 3 - 4 spread decreased by 0.36% [23]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - laying chicks, culled hens, and the egg - to - feed ratio increased. The breeding profit increased by 18.01% [23]. Group 9: Meal Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans are strong due to capital and sentiment. The market is looking forward to the USDA supply - and - demand report for new trading guidance. China's soybean - buying speed is fast, and the supply will be continuously replenished. The visit of Canada to China has brought positive signals, and the price of domestic rapeseed products has dropped, dragging down the soybean - meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and soybean and soybean - meal inventories are still at a high level. The expectation of a large number of auctions also suppresses the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low and the arrival rhythm is uncertain, the downside space of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policies. In the short term, the market sentiment is positive, and the market will fluctuate within a range [24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean contracts changed. The spreads between different contracts and the oil - meal ratios also changed [24]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu's soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans remained stable or changed slightly. The basis of each variety also had different degrees of changes [24].

2026 年 1 月 13 日 LPG：短期供应偏紧，地缘扰动偏强 丙烯：现货供需收紧，趋势偏强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,239 | 0.43% | 4,213 | -0.61% | | | PG2603 | 4,155 | 0.46% | 4,123 | -0.77% | | | PL2602 | 5,978 | 1.10% | 5,887 | -1.52% | | | PL2603 | 6,071 | 1.13% | 5,980 | -1.50% | | | PL2604 | 6,098 | 1.13% | 6,032 | -1.08% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2602 | 52,187 | 4843 | 29,464 | -3998 | | | P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - LLDPE: HD - LLD spread is narrowing, with marginal supply increase of LLDPE expected, demand in seasonal off - peak, and downstream开工率 weakening. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability [2]. - PP: Supply - demand is weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, with inventory reduction expected. PDH plants in South China coastal areas have new maintenance plans, and the balance has improved significantly. Pay attention to the implementation of later maintenance plans [2]. Methanol - Futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot is purchased on - demand. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of coastal MTO plants [4][6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Short - term supply - demand is weak, with high inventory pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: Short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but there is inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival. It is not advisable to chase long in the short - term, and opportunities to short EB03 and shrink processing fees at high levels can be considered [9]. LPG No overall view is provided in the report, only data on price, inventory, and开工率 are presented [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Affected by macro - sentiment and short - term demand expectations, it fluctuates upward. The supply remains high, and the demand is slightly weak. It is expected to continue the oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. - Glass: After the previous rise, it oscillates and falls back. The supply decreases, and the demand shrinks. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the winter storage situation [13]. Crude Oil - Affected by geopolitical risks such as the situation in Iran, oil prices rise, but the increase is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. Brent crude oil should pay attention to the pressure around $65 per barrel [14]. Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yielding tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. Demand recovery is limited, and inventory in Qingdao increases. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate in the range of 15500 - 16500 [15]. Urea - Supply remains high, and demand is weak. There is no substantial improvement in supply - demand, and prices are expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of plants and downstream demand [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Futures oscillate and fall, supply increases slightly, demand lacks improvement, and prices are expected to be stable and weak [19]. - PVC: Affected by export policies, prices fluctuate emotionally. The fundamentals are still under pressure, and short - term short positions should be on hold [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the medium - term and conduct long - spread arbitrage on PX5 - 9 at low levels [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to weaken, with limited inventory accumulation in January and greater pressure in February. It is recommended to oscillate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short - term, go long at low levels in the medium - term, and conduct long - spread arbitrage on TA5 - 9 at low levels [20]. - MEG: Supply is high, demand is weakening, and there is a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation in January - February. Pay attention to the pressure around 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse - spread arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high levels, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at high levels [20]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak, and prices follow raw materials to oscillate. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF plate is recommended to be shrunk at high levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand both decrease, and prices and processing fees follow the cost end. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PR main - contract plate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increase, and spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 change [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE企业 inventory and社会库存 increase, PP企业 inventory decreases, and PP贸易商 inventory increases. PE装置开工率 and下游加权开工率 increase slightly, while PP装置开工率 and downstream开工率 decrease [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decrease slightly, and spreads and basis change [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业 inventory,港口库存, and社会库存 all increase [5]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic企业开工率 increases, and some downstream开工率 decreases [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha increase [9]. - **Benzene - Styrene Price and Spread**: Prices of pure benzene and styrene increase, and spreads and basis change [9]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene江苏港口库存 increases slightly, and styrene江苏港口库存 decreases.开工率 of some industries in the industrial chain changes [9]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LPG increase slightly, and spreads and basis change [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decrease slightly. Upstream主营炼厂开工率 increases, and some downstream开工率 changes slightly [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices are relatively stable, and spreads and basis change [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash开工率 and周产量 increase, while浮法日熔量 decreases slightly. Glass厂库库存 decreases, and soda ash厂库库存 increases [13]. - **Real Estate Data**: New - start area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all change [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increase, and spreads and basis change [14]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: Prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD change, and spreads and basis change [14]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: Prices of natural rubber spot products change slightly, and basis and non - standard spreads change [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Production in some countries in November changes,开工率 of tire industries changes, and import and export volumes increase [15]. - **Inventory Change**:保税区库存 increases, and上期所厂库期货库存 decreases [15]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Price**: Futures prices oscillate and rise, and spot prices decline slightly [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea日产量 and周产量 increase,装置检修损失量 decreases,厂内库存 increases slightly, and港口库存 decreases [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: Prices of PVC and caustic soda products change slightly, and spreads and basis change [19]. - **Supply and Demand**:开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and some downstream industries changes, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda increases [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: Prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China MX increase [20]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY change [20]. - **PX, PTA, MEG Price and Spread**: Prices and spreads of PX, PTA, and MEG change, and inventory and开工率 of MEG change [20]. - **开工率**:开工率 of industries in the polyester industrial chain changes [20].

Group 1: Methanol - The domestic methanol market has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operating rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, MTO profits are average, which suppresses the upside potential of methanol. [2] - Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Additionally, the change in oil prices should be monitored. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may open up the upside potential. [2] Group 2: Plastics - The futures market is oscillating, while the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with the North China - East China price difference at -80, a decrease of 30, and the South China - East China price difference at 50, an increase of 50. [4] - Crude oil prices are oscillating. Oil - based production profits are deteriorating, and coal - based production profits are also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. [4] - Upstream coal chemical industry is reducing inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also reducing inventory. Social inventory has increased this week. HD inventory is at a low level, LD inventory has increased, and LL inventory is slightly higher than the neutral level year - on - year. [4] - From the supply side, the supply growth rate of standard products is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, and there are few maintenance plans in January. The full - density production has recovered. Looking at the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for the 05 contract is neutral, and the supply - demand balance sheet for LL still faces significant pressure. [4] Group 3: PP - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The East China basis is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has decreased slightly month - on - month. [6] - In the domestic regional price difference, the North China - East China price difference is -70, an increase of 35, and the South China - East China price difference is 100, a decrease of 30. [6] - In terms of upstream profits, oil - based production profits are stable. The comprehensive PDH profit is -970, an increase of 230 compared to the previous period, and the PHD operating rate has remained stable this week. Downstream BOPP and plastic weaving profits have improved. [6] - On the supply side, the number of temporary maintenance plans has increased, and the supply in January is flat compared to the previous month. Downstream buyers have replenished inventory at low prices for the holiday. Sinopec and PetroChina are reducing inventory, while the coal chemical industry and social inventory are increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is at a neutral level. Looking at the balance sheet, the supply pressure for the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly higher than neutral. PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation. [6] Group 4: PVC - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price for the ethylene method is 575, and for the calcium carbide method is 570. The sustainability needs further observation. [8] - Coal prices are 600, unchanged from the previous period, and semi - coke prices are 820, also unchanged. Semi - coke profits are poor, and calcium carbide profits are also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry with purchased calcium carbide is around -600. The calcium carbide - ethylene price is stable. [8] - Upstream production has remained stable this week, with an operating rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous period. This week, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of the ethylene method is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. [8] - Upstream factory inventory is 309,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period. PVC social inventory is 1.114 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared to the previous period. Inventory in East China is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons, and in South China is 54,000 tons, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly higher than neutral, and exports are flat compared to the previous period. [8] - Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, seasonal production has recovered. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, export volume this year is relatively high. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. Comprehensively, the medium - and long - term outlook for PVC is still poor. [8]