华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 2025 年上半年，硅锰与硅铁市场整体呈现"前高后低"的价格走势。硅锰方面，在硅锰产能偏宽松，下游消费无大的增量情况下，预期 硅锰仍将呈低位震荡，锰矿供给和硅锰库存变化仍是市场关注焦点。硅铁方面，硅铁产量和需求仍有望正增长，硅铁整体库存压力不大。 硅铁供需仍有增长趋势，但是鉴于硅铁产能整体相对充足，行业竞争仍较为剧烈，预计硅铁受到产区电价、产业政策等影响呈震荡走势..... 合金产区长时间亏损，关注成本端变化 动，关注供给端变化 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 本期分析研究员 王海涛 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 2025 年 07 月 06 日 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 期货研究报告 |铁合金半年报 2025-07-06 合金产区长时间亏损， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices may face downward pressure at low levels, with a slight expected decline in costs and limited upside potential. The support at the mine end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. - Stainless steel is operating with weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the negative feedback is transmitted to the supply side. Although the inventory has been slightly digested and the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, the driving force for continuous upward repair of steel prices is weak [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - The support at the nickel mine end is marginally loosening. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined by 2 - 25 US dollars/wet ton, and the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process is expected to slightly decrease by about 1.3%. Market concerns about the mine end have eased due to the news of increased Indonesian quotas, and the speculative sentiment has cooled [1]. - The smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry from June to July has affected the supply side. In July, the production schedule is 312,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively. Nickel - iron inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined nickel valuation. Also, the inventory accumulation in the refined nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity pressure is increasing marginally, limiting the upside space [1]. Stainless - Steel Fundamental Analysis - Stainless - steel supply and demand are both weak. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the increase in US tariffs on household appliances containing steel parts has led to negative feedback on the supply side. In July, the marginal supply - demand may continue to be weak. The overall high factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the social inventory has been slightly reduced. With the raw material end offering concessions, the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired [2]. - The production schedule of stainless steel in July is 31,200 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 3%. In May, China's stainless - steel imports were 125,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. Indonesia's production schedule in July has recovered to 43,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 33% and 32% respectively, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2% [2]. - The surplus pressure has shifted from stainless steel to nickel - iron. The nickel - iron inventory has increased to a historical high. At the end of June, the nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively. The price of nickel - iron raw materials has decreased to 910 yuan/nickel, and the cash cost center of stainless - steel gross basis has moved down to about 12,500 yuan/ton, and the delivery profit has been marginally repaired [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory has increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased by 198 tons to 21,059 tons, the spot inventory has increased by 1,607 tons to 11,571 tons, and the bonded area inventory has increased by 20 tons to 5,390 tons. The LME nickel inventory has decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons [3]. - The nickel - iron inventory at the end of June was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively, and the inventory pressure has increased marginally [4]. - On July 3, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1568 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 625,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 531,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% [4]. - The nickel - ore inventory at Chinese ports has increased by 1.1261 million wet tons to 8.7184 million wet tons. Among them, the Philippine nickel ore is 8.6424 million wet tons. Classified by nickel - ore grade, the low - nickel and high - iron ore is 4.4548 million wet tons, and the medium - and high - grade nickel ore is 4.2636 million wet tons [6]. Market News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are also crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, marking the project's entry into the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing nickel - iron with a grade of 22%, and each production line has an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [7]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal - processing park has resumed production. The plant's almost entire production capacity was shut down in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings reservoir area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill has tentatively decided to continue the shutdown for maintenance from June to July, and may adjust according to the market situation later. This shutdown is expected to affect the production volume by 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the production of 300 - series stainless steel. The mill had already cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) welcomes the decision of the two - house committee to remove the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), including suspected poor wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailings areas. The deputy minister in charge of environmental law enforcement said that companies found to have violated the law in IMIP may be fined, and the entire industrial park will be audited [8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,270 yuan, with changes compared to different time points (T - 1, T - 5, etc.) as shown in the table. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,730 yuan, also with corresponding changes [11]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 111,042 lots, and that of the main stainless - steel contract is 102,164 lots, with changes compared to different time points [11]. - Other data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel - bean premium and discount, and various spreads and costs are also provided in the table [11].

Group 1 - China's service trade grew by 7.7% year-on-year in the first five months of this year [3] - Tax reductions and refunds for technological innovation and manufacturing exceeded 600 billion yuan in the first five months [4] - The cumulative trading volume of China's futures market increased by 17.82% in the first half of the year [6] Group 2 - The Shandong aircraft carrier's open activities in Hong Kong attracted nearly 20,000 visitors [7] - The first batch of offshore wind power project units, located at the farthest distance, has connected to the grid for power generation [6] - The international logistics park of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Lianyungang has completed a cumulative logistics volume of 365 million tons over ten years [6]

Group 1 - China's service trade grew by 7.7% year-on-year in the first five months of this year [3] - Tax reductions and refunds for technological innovation and manufacturing exceeded 600 billion yuan in the first five months [4] - The trading volume of China's futures market increased by 17.82% in the first half of the year [10] Group 2 - The number of inbound and outbound travelers at Shenzhen's ports reached 130 million in the first half of the year [11] - The first batch of offshore wind power units from China's farthest offshore wind power project has been connected to the grid [12] - The international logistics park of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Lianyungang has completed a cumulative logistics volume of 365 million tons over ten years [13]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester raw material market is experiencing fluctuations with PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showing mixed trends, indicating a potential bearish outlook for prices in the near term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, PX futures closed at 6796 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, while PTA futures closed at 4798 yuan/ton, up 0.42%, and ethylene glycol futures closed at 4267 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1] - The spot market for PX showed a price correction, with negotiations for September to December around +8.5/+10, while PTA spot discussions were generally weak [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to remain weak due to increased supply and weak demand, with attention on the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 for production decisions [1] - Domestic PX production is experiencing a temporary decline due to maintenance of large facilities, with an operating rate of 83.8% as of June 27, down 1.8 percentage points [1] - Ethylene glycol's domestic operating rate is at 67.27%, down 3.07 percentage points, with expectations of concentrated imports in July leading to inventory accumulation at ports [1] Group 3: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - The market logic suggests that while PX supply is tight, cost and end-user feedback may lead to price declines; PTA supply is expected to increase as downstream demand weakens [1] - The trading strategy recommends a bearish outlook for polyester raw materials, with specific support and resistance levels identified for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [1]

周五（7月4日）），COMEX黄金期货最终涨0.11%，报3346.50美元/盎司，本周累计上涨1.79%，周一 和周二持续走高，周三到周五持续高位震荡。 COMEX白银期货最终涨0.14%，报37.135美元/盎司，本周持续走高，累计上涨2.10%，交投区间为 35.585-37.315美元。 ...

焦炭提涨或将搁浅？市场对焦煤涨势的延续性感到担忧，价格或有回调修正可能？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

豆粕生猪：市场缺乏指引 连粕窄幅震荡 | | 美白朗冷 THERE EILLINES | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 3006 | 3008 | -2.00 | -0.07% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2715 | 2715 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2954 | 2958 | -4.00 | -0.14% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2326 | 2319 | 7.00 | 0.30% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2328 | 2327 | 1.00 | 0.04% | | | CZCE荣籽柏: 09 | 7月4日 | 元/吨 | 2597 | 2601 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased significantly. Fundamentally, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain, and Thailand has restricted the import of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, raw material shortages and cost pressures coexist in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry, the operating rate of some producers has decreased, and the electronics industry has entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have increased slightly, but overseas inventories continue to decline [4]. - Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark, with the 10 - day moving average providing support [4]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly this week, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include strong US employment data and a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamental factors involve supply uncertainties from Myanmar and Congo, and weak demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries. Technically, positions are stable, and attention should be paid to the 270,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Premium**: This week, the futures price fluctuated, and the spot premium was lowered. As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 266,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,560 yuan/ton or 0.58% from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,805 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton or 0.01% from June 27 [7]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.19, an increase of 0.05 from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.94, an increase of 0.03 from June 26 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 55,224 lots, a decrease of 4,270 lots or 7.18% from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -1,309 lots, a decrease of 5,196 lots from June 23 [15][16]. 3.3 Industry Chain 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin production was -0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of -0.01%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative refined tin production was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [21][22]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On July 4, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 13.33% from June 27. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 8.7% from June 27 [25]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of July 4, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was -6,588 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,725.45 yuan/ton from June 27. In May 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of July 3, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,165 tons, an increase of 50 tons or 2.36% from June 26. As of July 4, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons or 3.49% from last week. As of July 4, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 6,807 tons, an increase of 256 tons or 3.91% from June 27 [38]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: From January to May 2025, the integrated circuit production was 193.46 billion pieces, an increase of 23.18 billion pieces or 13.61% compared with the same period last year [41]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. As of May 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal, iron ore, and poly - silicon, while the top three decliners were rapeseed, TSR 20, and Chinese jujube [13][14][15]. - For coking coal, supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with short - term fluctuations [18][23]. - For crude oil, low - inventory and geopolitical concerns drive the price up, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - For lithium carbonate, supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal (up 3.8% with 1.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), iron ore (up 2.4% with 1.3% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and poly - silicon (up 2.1% with 19.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [13][15]. - The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 1.8% with 17.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), TSR 20 (down 1.2% with 5.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Chinese jujube (down 1.1% with 5.6% month - on - month increase in open interest) [14][15]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Coking Coal (焦煤) - On July 3, coking coal increased by 3.8% to 856 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern, with short - term fluctuations predicted [18][23]. - The central conference improved market sentiment. Some coal mines in Shanxi may suspend or limit production, while others are resuming production, but the overall supply recovery is slow. Import customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is low, and the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal is about to be lowered [19][20][23]. - Coke output is stable with a slight decrease, and rising costs squeeze coke enterprises' profits, with an expected further decline in the operating rate. Short - term rigid demand exists, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and upstream coal mines are destocking [21][23]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On July 3, crude oil increased by 1.6% to 506.3 yuan/barrel. Low - inventory and geopolitical concerns are the triggers for the price rise, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - OPEC's production in June increased by 360,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2.801 million barrels per day, with several countries including Saudi Arabia increasing production [27][29]. - The EIA inventory report shows an increase in total petroleum inventories. Also, due to the heatwave in Europe, there is an expectation of increased demand for oil - fired power generation [28][29]. 3.1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂) - On July 3, lithium carbonate increased by 0.9% to 64080 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. - Market sentiment is positive, with good demand production schedule expectations and low warehouse receipts. Supply shows a month - on - month increase in weekly output, domestic lithium mine production grows, but imported lithium salts may decline. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan [34][37][38]. - From January to June, domestic cathode material production maintained growth. July is a traditional off - season, but demand production schedule expectations are good, and leading enterprises show signs of purchasing. Social inventories accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventories are destocked, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions at highs [35][36][38]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观新闻) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to reports of the US President planning to visit China with a business delegation, stating no information to provide but hoping for joint efforts to promote China - US economic and trade relations [40][41]. - China's Caixin Services PMI for June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, with the prosperity level declining to the lowest since Q4 2024 [40][41]. - The US government lifted export restrictions on EDA to China, canceling some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software [40][41].