工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 点评 工业硅日报 15 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8350 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.15%，持仓 增仓 11817 手至 20.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 500 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 58030 元/吨，日内涨幅 3.61%，持仓 增仓 16408 手至 14.3 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 5730 元/吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏拉的比较长， 减产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调整。交易 所针对多晶硅进行提保限仓和交割端扩容，缓和挤仓波动烈度。近期市场 关于产能收储公司注册动态众说纷纭，股市期市反馈分歧。晶硅现货过剩 和仓单短缺导致期现运行脱钩，现货暂无上行驱动；但未出现仓单大幅注 册基础上 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-16 供应持续增量，市场震荡运行 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5738元/吨（+63），丙烯华东现货价5975元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6080元/吨（-10）， 丙烯华东基差237元/吨（-63），丙烯华北基差131元/吨（+2）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR201美元/吨（+6），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR40美元/吨（+13），进口利润-353元/吨（+3），厂内库存45960吨（-1930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-0.89%），生产利润-280元/吨（+50）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+0%），生产利润82 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率69%（-6%），生产利润218元/吨（-144）；辛醇开工率77%（+1%），生产利润550元/吨 （-143）；丙烯酸开工率80%（+2%），生产利润358元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-758元/吨（+2）； 酚酮开工率80%（-3%），生产利润-952元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端山东滨华PDH装置重启提负，PDH亏损检修现象仍不明 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market for lithium carbonate is currently in a state of destocking, and prices continue to rise. However, there are still differences in the market. Whether the price can remain stable above 100,000 yuan/ton remains to be seen. Supply - side incremental expectations and the slowdown of destocking may suppress price increases. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 98,080 yuan/ton and closed at 101,060 yuan/ton, with a 1.40% change in the closing price compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 699,601 lots, and the open interest was 662,185 lots (634,283 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 3,190 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,260 lots, a change of 210 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 93,500 - 96,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 92,000 - 93,300 yuan/ton, both with a change of 650 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,220 US dollars/ton, a change of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. News about Bolivia's new president's plan to terminate some lithium - mining contracts with China has strengthened the expectation of tight lithium carbonate supply [1] Group 4: Inventory Situation - The current spot inventory is 111,469 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,133 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 19,161 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,606 tons), downstream inventory is 42,738 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 957 tons), and other inventory is 49,570 tons (a month - on - month increase of 430 tons). December is expected to maintain a destocking pattern, but the speed has slowed down [2] Group 5: Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly wait and see in the short term; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-16 需求承接有限，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11305元/吨，较前交易日变动-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.18%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.59元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+285，较前交易日变动+210；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.84元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差LH03+535，较前交易日变动+220；四川 地区外三元生猪价格12.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+945，较前交易日变动+250。 据农业农村部监测，12月15日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.66，比上周五上升0.64个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为133.60，比上周五上升0.73个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.40元/公斤，比上周五下降0.6%； 牛肉66.03元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉62.50元/公斤，比上周五下降1.0%；鸡蛋7.48元/公斤，比上周五下降 0.1%；白条鸡18.01元/公斤，比上周五上升 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-16 外盘出现回调，内盘波动增加 市场分析 1、\t12月15日地区价格：山东市场，4400-4500；东北市场，4080-4300；华北市场，4300-4450；华东市场，4320-4475； 沿江市场，4580-4960；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4390-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷595美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4706元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4628元/吨，跌77元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷599美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷589美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4659元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4582元/吨，跌76元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期价格回落，但近期整体表现强于内盘，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现货方面，山东区域小幅下 跌，其余区域维稳为主，整体成交尚可，卖方库存无忧。近期随着丙烷原料进口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承 压，弹性需求受到 ...

甲醇产业期现日报 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月16日 | 品种 | 12月15日 | 12月12日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2074 | 2067 | 7 | 0.34% | 元/吨 | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2124 | 2099 | 25 | 1.19% | | | MA15价差 | -50 | -32 | -18 | 56.25% | | | 太仓基差 | 28 | 30 | -2 | -6.67% | | | MTO05盘面 | -118 | -129 | 11 | -8.53% | | | 内蒙北线观货 | 1968 | 1965 | 3 | 0.13% | | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2113 | 2100 | 13 | 0.60% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2100 | 2075 | ટર | 1.20% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 133 | 110 | 23 | 20.4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为276元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为639.29元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent operation of PTA plants has been stable. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, at low prices, some domestic ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped below 70%. With the restart and load increase of Zhengdaikai, the start - up rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign MEG ships this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. Fundamentally, MEG shows a loose balance due to supply contraction this month, but there is a lack of confidence and obvious driving force in the market under the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation. It is expected that MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, the spot basis was relatively strong, and individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. Individual mainstream suppliers offered far - term cargoes. The December cargo was mainly traded at a discount of about 20 points to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 20. The spot price is 4615, the 01 contract basis is - 13, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and traded in a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a narrow range. The spot negotiation and trading this week and next week were carried out at a discount of 10 - 24 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and some traders were actively involved in spot quoting. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market strengthened. Recently arrived cargoes were traded at around 430 - 431 US dollars/ton, and individual traders participated in inquiries. The cargoes for shipment at the end of December and in January were negotiated at 434 - 435 US dollars/ton, and those for shipment at the end of January and in February were negotiated at around 438 - 439 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 3640, the 01 contract basis is - 11, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in the East China region is 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - No relevant content provided 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, EG consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory change from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from December 11 to December 15, 2025, as well as the changes in basis, spreads, and processing fees [12]. 5.影响因素总结 - Positive factors: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently, and it is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of about 10 days [8]. - Negative factors: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted after a short - term shutdown in late November. A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has been restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown in early October [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PP will continue to perform weakly. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, the upstream has locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales, so the willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The trading volume was 806,493, and the open interest changed by 193,360. The 01 - contract basis was - 154 (compared to - 49 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 76 (compared to - 39 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6040 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, and 6230 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded slightly, some coal - chemical plant prices were raised, and the cost support for goods strengthened. Some wire drawing offers from traders increased slightly, while most non - standard prices remained stable. The daily trading volume improved partially [1]. - Some PDH devices are planned to shut down in January, but the scale is not large for now. The year - end demand lacks elasticity, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited under the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The PP US dollar market prices partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement remains based on rigid demand with difficult trading improvement [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost**: Crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support for the PP cost side. Sentiment was slightly repaired on Friday night due to approaching position limits and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's mention of resisting "involution - style" competition [2]. - **Supply**: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand [2]. - **Demand**: Downstream new orders are weakening, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3].

Report Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides detailed fundamental data for industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot premiums and discounts, prices, profits, and inventory levels. It also mentions a macro and industry news item about the Yunnan electricity price bidding results [2]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2605 closing price is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan from T - 1, 325 yuan from T - 5, and 795 yuan from T - 22. PS2605 closing price is 58,030 yuan/ton, up 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - **Basis and Spot Premiums/Discounts**: Industrial silicon spot premiums are positive for different grades, while polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled material) is - 6030 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - **Prices and Profits**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 100 yuan from T - 22. Silicon plant profits are negative for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and 0.7 yuan from T - 22. [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 56.1 million tons, with an increase of 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 1.5 million tons from T - 22. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 29.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and 2.6 million tons from T - 22. [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with most remaining stable. [2] - **Polysilicon - related Products**: The prices of polysilicon - N - type recycled material, trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given, along with their price changes over different time periods. [2] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC is 13600 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is 1788 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 21600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from T - 1. [2] Macro and Industry News - Kunming Power Exchange Center announced the Yunnan electricity price bidding results for 2026. 1295 out of 1323 new - energy projects won the bid, with the clearing mechanism price for photovoltaic projects at 0.329 yuan/kWh and for wind power projects at 0.335 yuan/kWh. [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [4]