Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Core Points - Kevin Hassett is emerging as a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chair, posing a threat to Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor [1][3] - The competition for the Fed chairmanship reflects Trump's typical style, with ambitious figures vying for his favor, reminiscent of his reality show "The Apprentice" [2] - Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is driving this competition, as he seeks more aggressive interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, 63, has shifted his stance on the Fed, becoming one of Powell's harshest critics, accusing the Fed of making decisions based on partisan interests rather than economic data [4][5] - Kevin Warsh, 55, is attempting to adjust his previously hawkish stance on monetary policy, suggesting that the Fed could cut rates more effectively by reducing its holdings of $6.2 trillion in Treasury and MBS assets [6] - Scott Bessent is in a unique position, having been privately suggested by Trump as a potential Fed Chair, with discussions about him possibly holding both the Treasury and Fed Chair positions [7] Group 2: Economic Context - Analysts note that the government's push for tax cuts without corresponding spending cuts has exacerbated fiscal deficit pressures, leading Trump's team to blame high interest rates on the Fed [3] - Trump's recent strong statements indicate that the new Fed Chair must support interest rate cuts, a more direct demand than during Powell's appointment in 2018 [3] - Bessent's views on the Fed have evolved, as he has publicly criticized Powell for being overly cautious in rate cuts due to past misjudgments on inflation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle on the exchange rates of major emerging market currencies from January 2019 to April 2025, revealing a shift in the response of these currencies to U.S. monetary policy changes, indicating a departure from the previous trend of general depreciation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Background and Context - The article discusses the historical context of the U.S. dollar's dominance in the international monetary system and the emerging trend of financial multipolarity, with the dollar's share in global official foreign exchange reserves declining from 66% in Q1 2015 to 57.8% by the end of 2024, a drop of 8.2 percentage points [6][12]. - The research highlights the significant events that have challenged the dollar's status, including various financial crises and the U.S. government's increasing fiscal deficits, which have accelerated the trend of de-dollarization [2][12]. Group 2: Methodology and Findings - The study employs a DCC-GARCH model to empirically explore the dynamic relationship between de-dollarization trends and U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, focusing on the response of emerging market currencies to the latest monetary policy cycle of the Federal Reserve [3][11]. - The analysis identifies four distinct phases of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy from January 2019 to May 2025, including periods of easing and tightening, and examines the varying impacts on the exchange rates of 18 selected emerging market currencies [7][10]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Responses - During the first phase of monetary easing, the U.S. dollar index appreciated by 8.37%, with significant gains against currencies from Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, while some currencies like the Egyptian pound depreciated [8][10]. - In the second phase of quantitative easing, the dollar index slightly declined by 0.89%, but the Turkish lira experienced a dramatic depreciation of 84.86%, indicating a divergence in currency responses [10][11]. - The third phase of monetary tightening saw the dollar index rise by 1.62%, with notable appreciation against several emerging market currencies, yet the overall impact did not lead to widespread currency crises as previously observed [10][11]. Group 4: Implications of De-dollarization - The article concludes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has increasingly lost its influence over emerging market currencies, with countries like those in South America and Africa showing more vulnerability compared to Asian and European emerging markets, which have demonstrated stronger economic governance [11][18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is further supported by emerging market countries diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, reflecting a growing skepticism towards U.S. monetary policy and its associated risks [11][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant fluctuations in US Treasury bonds are due to the structural contradictions in the US Treasury market, leading to intensified supply - demand imbalances. The recent upward inflation expectations in the US and the repricing of Fed policies have also driven the re - evaluation of risk premiums [9]. - The US Treasury storm may lead to higher financing costs and uncertainty, inhibiting the expansion momentum of the US economy and restricting the scope of monetary policy. The increased volatility of US Treasuries exacerbates the fragility of the financial system, and the weakening of the safety of US Treasuries potentially impacts the international status of the US dollar and may accelerate the reconstruction of the global monetary and financial order [9]. - The probability of this Treasury bond fluctuation triggering a systemic risk is low, but attention should be paid to the impact of Treasury bond trends on the US sovereign credit level [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Characteristics and Importance of the US Treasury Market - The US Treasury market is the world's largest and most liquid bond market, a core tool for US fiscal policy and the cornerstone of the global financial system. As of the end of Q1 2025, the outstanding balance of US federal government debt exceeded $36.2 trillion, equivalent to about 125% of GDP. The average daily trading volume has exceeded $630 billion [13]. - It is the anchor of the global financial system. The US Treasury yield (e.g., 10 - year) is the "risk - free interest rate" reference for global asset pricing, and US Treasuries are recognized as safe - haven assets [13]. - It is based on the pillar position of the US dollar in the international monetary system. The US dollar accounts for about 59% of global foreign exchange reserves, making US Treasuries an important part of central banks' foreign exchange reserves [13]. - It is crucial for US fiscal sustainability and the stability of the global financial market. The low financing cost of US Treasuries is key to US fiscal sustainability, and the stability of the Treasury market is vital for global economic and financial stability [14]. 2. Reasons for the Upward Movement of US Treasury Yields (1) Rising Fiscal Financing Demand and Continued Long - term Supply Pressure - In Q1 2025, US fiscal financing demand remained high. As of April 1, 2025, the total federal government debt exceeded $36.2 trillion. The CBO predicts that the budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 will exceed $2 trillion again, accounting for nearly 7% of GDP. The Treasury may gradually increase the issuance scale in the second half of 2025 [15][16]. (2) Upward Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy Repricing Driving Risk Premium Re - evaluation - On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced a "reciprocal tariff plan", which is expected to significantly increase import prices and exacerbate imported inflation risks. Multiple think - tanks warn that if major economies take reciprocal counter - measures, the US inflation center may rise by 1.5 - 2 percentage points. This may lead to greater uncertainty in the Fed's monetary policy path [18]. (3) Declining Demand for US Treasuries Leading to Insufficient Market Liquidity and Reduced Trading Depth - In recent years, the liquidity of the US Treasury market has declined. In March 2025, the US capital market fluctuated significantly, and investor confidence weakened. In April 2025, the liquidity indicators of the Treasury market continued to deteriorate, and the bid - ask spread of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasuries reached the highest level since the 2020 "flash crash". Market orders dropped by more than 40% [19]. 3. Potential Impacts and Risks of the Upward Movement of US Treasury Yields (1) The US Treasury Storm Increases Financing Costs and Uncertainty, Inhibiting US Economic Expansion and Restricting Monetary Policy Space - Rising yields directly increase the financing costs of the US real economy. In April 2025, the 30 - year mortgage rate exceeded 7.25%, and the residential transaction volume decreased by about 12% month - on - month. The nominal financing rate of mid - investment - grade corporate bonds exceeded 5.8%, and some capital expenditure projects were postponed [21]. (2) Increased Volatility of US Treasuries Exacerbates the Fragility of the Financial System and Amplifies Systemic Financial Risks at Home and Globally - The significant increase in US Treasury yields is causing a wide - scale re - evaluation of the balance sheets of the financial system, increasing the vulnerability of domestic financial institutions and amplifying global financial stability risks through cross - market linkages. In April 2025, emerging market bond ETFs had a net capital outflow of over $4 billion in the first two weeks [23][25]. (3) The Weakening of the Safety of US Treasuries Potentially Impacts the International Status of the US Dollar and May Accelerate the Reconstruction of the Global Order - The US Treasury market's weakening liquidity and increased volatility are eroding the traditional safe - haven perception of US Treasuries. The issue of US fiscal sustainability is becoming more prominent, which is eroding the credit foundation of the US dollar and may accelerate the shift of international reserve asset allocation to a multi - currency system [26]. 4. Future Scenario Analysis of US Treasury Trends (1) Baseline Scenario (60% Probability): Policy Tends to be Restrained, and the Market Restores Limited Stability - The Trump administration shows some policy convergence after market fluctuations, and the Fed maintains its independence and gradually releases easing signals. In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain at a relatively high level, but the sharp upward trend will slow down, and volatility is expected to converge. In the medium term, if policy stability improves and the Fed gradually cuts interest rates, Treasury yields are expected to decline [28][30]. (2) Risk Scenario (30% Probability): Radical Tariff Policies Lead to a Sharp Rebound in Inflation, Policy Re - tightening, and a Significant Increase in US Treasury Risks - If the US imposes comprehensive tariffs and global energy and commodity prices rise, inflation may rise above 3%. The Fed may be forced to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US economy's "stagflation" expectations will be strengthened. Both short - term and long - term Treasury yields face upward pressure [31]. (3) Crisis Scenario (10% Probability): In Extreme Situations, the Trump Administration Continues to Take Radical Policies and Puts Pressure on the Fed, Leading to Monetary Policy Chaos and a Financial Crisis - If the Trump administration promotes high - intensity fiscal expansion and trade protection measures, and the Fed loses its policy independence, it may trigger a liquidity crisis. The 10 - year yield may soar irrationally, and the US financial system may face a serious systemic financial crisis [32].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global precious metals market in 2025 is influenced by geopolitical events such as the stalled Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks and escalating tensions in the Middle East, creating a complex environment for investors [1] - The World Gold Council reports that global central bank gold purchases will exceed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, with China's gold reserves increasing to 73.61 million ounces, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] - The occupation of mining hubs in the Democratic Republic of Congo is impacting palladium and cobalt supply chains, while trade tensions from Trump's tariff policies present operational challenges for investors [1] Group 2: Investment Challenges - The precious metals market is experiencing daily price fluctuations exceeding $100, with incidents like a single-day gold price swing of over $55 on March 18 due to geopolitical tensions, highlighting the risks of traditional trading platforms [3] - Data indicates that 73% of investors incur losses due to poor platform selection, emphasizing the importance of trading efficiency and fund security in the industry [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - The company has established a three-dimensional risk management system comprising regulatory compliance, technical safeguards, and fund custody, ensuring transparency and security for investors [4] - Each trade generates a unique transaction code, allowing real-time tracking and verification, akin to an "electronic ID" for transactions [4] - The platform employs advanced technology, including multi-layer firewalls and SSL encryption, maintaining a slippage rate of 0.05% under high-pressure conditions [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For entry-level investors, the company offers a micro-position design starting at 0.01 lots, allowing for small-scale testing of trading strategies with a focus on risk management [5] - Advanced investors can utilize a "core + satellite" allocation strategy, with 70% in gold ETFs and 30% in silver futures, capitalizing on projected silver price increases driven by solar demand [7] - The platform's multi-asset trading capabilities enable tracking of correlations between gold, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, automatically initiating hedging strategies when divergences exceed 15% [7]

Group 1 - The majority of U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield at 3.905%, the 10-year yield at 4.399%, and the 30-year yield at 4.94% [1] - A joint report from the New York and San Francisco Federal Reserves indicates a possibility of the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates close to zero in the coming years, despite currently high short-term borrowing costs [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as this month, depending on evolving data [1] Group 2 - Canadian bond yields increased across the board, with the 1-year yield at 2.655%, the 10-year yield at 3.402%, and the 30-year yield at 3.699% [2] - European bond yields showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year German yield at 2.641%, the 10-year Italian yield at 3.552%, and the 10-year French yield at 3.354% [2] - UK bond yields experienced minor fluctuations, with the 2-year yield at 3.866%, the 10-year yield at 5.577%, and the 30-year yield at 5.389% [2] Group 3 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed regret over the latest tariff statement and emphasized ongoing negotiations with the U.S. government [3] - Long-term Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield at 1.49% and the 30-year yield at 3.076% [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance issued 5-year bonds with a demand ratio of 3.54 times, indicating average market demand [3] Group 4 - Investor sentiment was cautious due to tariff tensions, leading to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and rising yields [4] - President Trump announced that starting August 1, imports from at least 14 countries will face high tariffs, contributing to the sell-off [4] Group 5 - The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its policy rate at 3.85%, indicating a need for more time to assess inflation data [6] - Australian bond yields initially rose significantly before partially retreating, with the 10-year yield at 4.269% after the policy announcement [6] - Australia's inflation rate for May was reported at 2.1%, the lowest since October 2024, down from 2.4% in the first quarter [6] Group 6 - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $158 billion in three bond offerings, including $50 billion in 6-week and 52-week bills, and $58 billion in 3-year bonds [6]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factor for precious metal prices in the medium - term is the US fiscal and monetary policy expectations. The Fed's marginal easing in the second half of the year is certain, and a long - position approach should be maintained for silver prices [2]. - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will ultimately yield to the continuous development of the US fiscal situation. The Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in the July meeting but show a marginal dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting [3]. - Against the backdrop of the expected loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, attention should be focused on the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the US wide - fiscal expectation. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.36% to 775.68 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.19% to 8916.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.08% to 3345.60 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.17% to 36.97 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.4%, and the US dollar index was 97.37 [2]. - For various precious metal products, there were different daily changes in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the trading volume of COMEX Gold increased by 184.71% compared to the previous period, while the open interest decreased by 1.42% [6]. 2. Policy Expectations - US Treasury Secretary Besent believes the Fed will cut interest rates twice in the remaining time of this year. Trump's trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed to intervene in Powell's stance. Fed Governor Warsh also believes the Fed should cut interest rates [2]. 3. Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. For example, Chart 11 shows the relationship between COMEX Gold price (dollars/ounce) and the real interest rate (%) [11]. - The report also provides data on the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences on July 7, 2025 [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict eases, but risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remain; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's signature tax - cut bill has passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US. - In terms of the monetary attribute, overall US employment growth is stronger than expected, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The market now expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.64%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.50%. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3336/oz, up 1.52% from last week; London gold at $3331.9/oz, up 1.84%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 771.3 yuan/g, down 0.74% from the previous day but up 0.48% from last week. [2] - **Positions**: Comex gold positions decreased by 1.42% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 12.80%, and gold TD positions increased by 2.22%. [2] - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.32%. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. [5] - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced their positions again, and the visible silver inventory increased slightly recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. [6] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $37.04/oz, up 2.42% from last week; London silver at $36.89/oz, up 2.52%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8944 yuan/kg, up 2.25% from the previous day and 1.68% from last week. [6] - **Positions**: Comex silver positions remained unchanged; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 16.45% from the previous day but decreased by 12.60% from last week, and silver TD positions increased by 3.27%. [6] - **Inventory**: The total visible silver inventory increased by 0.12% from last week. [6] Key Fundamental Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased by $30.94 billion, a decrease of 0.00%. [8] - **Economic Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 1.9%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; non - farm employment increased by 147,000. [11] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year was 4.50%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; core PCE price index year - on - year was 2.68%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points. [8][11] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged; the VIX index decreased by 0.18% from the previous day; the CRB commodity index increased by 1.57% from the previous day. [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's future interest rate adjustments. [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and strong economic data from the US, which has reduced the urgency for interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market is awaiting details on tariffs and is particularly focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes to analyze future monetary policy [3] - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the overall trend for gold remains upward, as real yields may continue to decline in the context of potential Fed policy easing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices opened lower, with a significant drop to 3306 and further down to 3295, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [6] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to face downward pressure unless it breaks above the resistance level of 3310, with a potential target of 3438 if upward momentum is achieved [6] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish scenarios possible, but the bearish outlook appears stronger at this moment [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals declined. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June and the decrease in the unemployment rate led the market to abandon bets on a July interest rate cut. Economic data shows that the economy is not significantly weakening, and the Fed will base its next move on data performance. After the geopolitical risks cooled down and economic data suppressed the interest rate cut expectations, the market's focus this week is on the change of the US reciprocal tariff policy expiring on July 9. Trump said new tariffs would take effect on August 1, with rates ranging from 10 - 70%. The short - term direction of precious metals is unclear, and they will continue to fluctuate waiting for the impact of the final policy on market risk sentiment [1] 3) Other Key Points - On July 4, Trump signed a nearly 900 - page "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which includes many of his 2024 campaign promises. The bill will increase the federal fiscal deficit by about $3.3 trillion in the next decade [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that several major agreements are close to being reached. If countries receiving tariff letters fail to reach an agreement, the tax rate will return to the April level on August 1. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs will take effect on August 1, and Trump is "now formulating tax rates and agreements". White House economic adviser Hassett said some trade negotiations may exceed the deadline [2] - Israel and Hamas' first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations in Qatar ended without results, with Israel saying Hamas' demands were "unacceptable" [2]