【导读】香港金管局将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0% 12月11日，香港金融管理局（以下简称香港金管局）将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%。 这是香港金管局年内第三次降息。今年9月18日和10月30日，香港金管局在美联储降息后分别跟随降息25个基点。 香港金管局表示，基本利率是用作计算经贴现窗进行回购交易时适用的贴现率的基础利率。目前基本利率定于当前的美国联邦基金利率目标区 间的下限加50个基点，或隔夜及1个月香港银行同业拆息的5天移动平均数的平均值，以较高者为准。 香港金管局宣布降息25个基点 12月11日，香港金管局将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%，即时生效。 因应美国于12月10日（美国时间）调低联邦基金利率的目标区间25个基点，当前的美国联邦基金利率目标区的下限加50个基点是4.00%，而隔 夜及1个月香港银行同业拆息的5天移动平均数的平均值是2.39%，所以根据预设公式，基本利率设定于4.00%。 美联储如期宣布降息25个基点 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%—3.75%，符合市场预期。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29 日降息后年内的第三次降息 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：于博宏观札记） | | 2025年12月议息会议 | 2025年10月议息会议 | 2025年9月议息会议 | 2025年7月议息会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 利率决策 | 下调25BP | 下调25BP | 下调25BP | 不调整 | | 联邦基金利率目标区间 | 3.50%-3.75% | 3.75%-4.00% | 4.00%-4.25% | 4.25%-4.50% | | 超额准备盆率 | 3.65% | 3.90% | 4.15% | 4.40% | | 陽夜逆回购利率 | 3.50% | 3.75% | 4.00% | 4.25% | | 级信贷贴到窗口利率 | 3.75% | 4.00% | 4.25% | 4.50% | | | 12月1日起:1)美联储持有的美国 国债到期后,本金部分将全部在拍卖 | 10-11月:月度减持美国国债的 | | | | | | 上限维持在50亿美元、维持月度 | | | | | 中续做 (roll over) ; 2) 机构债与 机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的本 | 减持抵押贷款支持证券 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.5% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and a total reduction of 75 basis points [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices saw positive reactions, with the Dow Jones rising by 497.46 points (1.05%), the Nasdaq increasing by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.68%, approaching historical closing records [1] - The meeting recorded three dissenting votes for the first time since 2019, with differing opinions on the rate cut magnitude and direction among Federal Reserve officials [1] Group 2 - The market showed mixed asset performance post-announcement, with the U.S. dollar index falling by 0.43% to 98.789, while spot silver rose by 1.83% to $61.7854 per ounce, reaching a historical high, and spot gold increased by 0.46% to $4227.37 per ounce [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.65%, with notable gains in stocks such as Canadian Solar (up over 5%), Beike (up nearly 4%), and Alibaba (up 1.86%) [2] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 10-year yield down by 3.51 basis points to 4.149% and the 30-year yield down by 2.01 basis points to 4.787% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and its implications for gold prices indicate a cautious market outlook, with potential for both upward and downward movements in the near term [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On December 11, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1][5]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that further rate hikes are "extremely unlikely," indicating a dovish stance [1][5]. - The Fed's updated "dot plot" suggests only one rate cut is planned for 2026, while futures market traders anticipate two cuts, reflecting differing expectations [1][5][6]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $4,181, reaching a high of $4,238 before closing at $4,227, forming a small bullish candle [1][5]. - Technical analysis indicates resistance at the $4,240-$4,250 range, with potential for upward movement to $4,280-$4,300 if this level is breached [2][6]. - Conversely, a drop below the $4,200 level could lead to a decline towards $4,180 [2][6]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - The current market environment suggests a "range trading" strategy, focusing on short positions near resistance and long positions near support [2][6]. - Specific trading recommendations include shorting gold at the $4,238-$4,240 range with a stop loss at $4,250 and a target of $4,200-$4,180 [3][6].

影响上，日内在美联储利率决议公布前延续近日的震荡区间表现观望，一直到周四凌晨，美联储如期降 息25个基点，虽然一度卖事实走低录得日内低点； 上交易日周三(12月10日)：国际黄金触底回升收阳，再度收线在短期均线上方，多头力量加强，暗示后 市仍有继续反弹的动力，再度上探4260美元附近阻力。突破则有望触及4340美元或更高位置。反之继续 遇阻则有维持当下的震荡区间波动继续调整走盘。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4207.69美元/盎司，先行盘整后转回落，到欧盘及美盘大部分时段，又处 于4188-4205美元区间内震荡，一直到凌晨3点时段开盘，金价走低触及日内低点4181.85美元，迅速反 弹回升收复日内跌幅，录得日内高点4238.49美元，最终有所回撤，收于4228.35美元，日振幅56.64美 元，收涨20.66美元，涨幅0.49%。 但由于又表示会在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债(变相放水)，以及鲍威尔虽未就近期是否再次降息提 供明确指引，但表示"不包含未来加息"情景，被市场解读为存在明年1月进一步降息的可能；再加上特 朗普批评鲍威尔：降息幅度太小，可以翻倍，应降至全球最低。进一步提升了市场对于未来降息前景 ...

智通财经12月11日讯（记者 夏淑媛）继9月、10月分别降息25基点后，今日美联储再宣布降息25个基 点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。 美联储如期降息，对我国货币政策将产生什么影响？财通证券首席经济学家孙彬彬表示："我国当前适 度宽松总基调不变，货币政策仍然要强化逆周期和跨周期调节，外部限制放松的前提下，总量型政策有 其可能性。"粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒表示："在美联储降息的窗口期，中国货币政策能够更加'以 我为主'，进一步降准降息。" 新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果也显示，尽管本月银行间流动性或阶段性承压，但在央行呵护态度 下，12月资金缺口压力不大，跨年流动性有望维持平稳。在20家参与调查的市场机构中，1家认为基本 不存在流动性缺口；16家认为整体资金缺口压力或处于季节性偏大水平，12月的流动性缺口或在1.6万 亿元附近；3家认为中性趋紧，流动性缺口超过2万亿元规模。展望2026年，多家市场机构认为2025年国 内50个bp的降准和10bp的降息低于预期，2026年我国或再有1-2次降准，累计幅度25-50BP。 "C50风向指数调查"是由智通财经发起，由市场中的各类研究机 ...

Group 1 - The price of paper gold is currently trading around 965 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.85% and a daily high of 965.00 CNY per gram and a low of 950.38 CNY per gram, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. economic data are providing safe-haven support for gold, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and rising tensions in the Middle East contributing to market concerns [3] - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, reinforcing a long-term price floor for gold [3] Group 2 - The Chinese gold price has broken through the key resistance level of 950 CNY per gram, forming an upward channel on the daily chart, with short-term moving averages in a bullish arrangement [4] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with geopolitical risk aversion, suggests a medium-term bullish trend for gold, with recommendations to buy on dips while being cautious of short-term pullback risks [4] - The recent increase in the RMB exchange rate supports gold demand priced in CNY, as the central parity has been adjusted upward for three consecutive days [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut during its December meeting, with a high probability of 88.6% according to CME data, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative policy environment due to declining inflation and signs of cooling employment [1]. Group 1: Inflation Trends - The PCE price index for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which is better than the previous value of 2.7% [3]. - The core PCE price index also rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous year's 2.9%, indicating a stable inflation environment that supports the case for monetary policy easing [3]. - Overall, consumer spending has stagnated, reflecting financial strain among Americans prior to the government shutdown, which further supports the argument for a more lenient monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Employment Market Dynamics - The latest ADP employment data indicates an average weekly addition of 4,750 jobs in private enterprises, showing improvement from previous negative growth, but highlights significant structural disparities, particularly affecting small businesses [4]. - Small businesses experienced a net job loss of 120,000 in November, while larger firms added approximately 90,000 jobs, indicating a troubling trend for the overall employment landscape [4]. - The non-farm payroll data for September showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%, suggesting underlying weaknesses in the labor market [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Goldman Sachs has indicated that a December rate cut is "basically a done deal," with market pricing reflecting a probability exceeding 85%, driven by labor market slowdowns and risk management needs [6]. - The report emphasizes that despite strong non-farm job additions, rising unemployment and increased layoffs signal a weakening labor structure, supporting the case for a "preventive rate cut" to mitigate economic slowdown risks [6]. - Looking ahead, fiscal policies, such as infrastructure and industrial stimulus measures, are expected to drive economic growth, with projections of U.S. economic growth remaining in the 2%–2.5% range [6].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.456 | 102.466 | 105.825 | 105.820 | 108.030 | 108.045 | 112.79 | 112.94 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.430 | 102.444 | 105.785 | 105.790 | 107.980 | 108.000 | 112.59 | 112.75 | | | 涨跌 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.050 | 0.045 | 0.200 | 0.190 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0. ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 11 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：国际市场利空体现较充分 国内供应不确定增加 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价上涨 国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：市场传言较多，盘面波动增加 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | 生猪：现货小幅反弹 盘面仍然承压 8 | | 花生：大型油厂开始收购，花生盘面高位震荡 10 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：库存较低 苹果基本面偏强 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：市场情绪反复，钢价震荡运行 14 | | --- | | 双焦：震荡偏弱，等待冬储启动 14 | | 铁矿：高位偏空思路对待 15 | | 铁合金：成本有支撑，需求存压制 16 | | 金银：降息+技术性扩表，提振金银市场情绪 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：联储降息落地，铂钯价格高位震荡 18 | | 铜：鲍威尔发表偏鸽言论，铜价表现坚挺 19 | | 氧化铝：空头减仓带动价格反弹 后续关注仓 ...