Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to persistent inflationary pressures [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the UK National Statistics Office on the 17th of August shows that both year-on-year and month-on-month inflation rates met market expectations but remain significantly above the 2% inflation target [1] - Given the ongoing inflation rates exceeding the target and signs of fatigue in the labor market, international institutions widely predict that the Bank of England will not rush to lower interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 and the beginning of monetary policy adjustments for 2025 [2] - The FOMC noted a slowdown in economic activity and significant weakening in job growth, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.3%, although still at historical lows [2][5] - The decision to cut rates was passed with an 11 to 1 vote, indicating internal divisions within the Fed regarding the extent of the cut, as only Stephen Milan voted against it, advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [2] Group 2 - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index experienced a sharp decline, dropping below the 96 mark, which is the lowest level since 2025, before slightly rebounding [5] - The job market showed signs of significant cooling, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate reaching its highest level since 2021 [5] - Core CPI remains around 3%, above the Fed's target of 2%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite some easing [5] Group 3 - Global financial markets reacted strongly to the Fed's rate cut, with the U.S. stock indices initially rising before quickly reversing course [6] - A-shares experienced significant volatility, with major indices closing down after the Fed's decision, reflecting increased risk aversion among investors [8][9] - Despite the overall market decline, certain sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, and AI computing remained active, with some stocks reaching historical highs [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, Hong Kong's financial institutions have also lowered their prime rates, which is expected to reduce borrowing costs for businesses and residents, particularly benefiting the housing market [2][3][9] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announced a 25 basis point reduction in the base rate to 4.5%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's actions [3][4] - Major banks, including Bank of China Hong Kong, HSBC, and Standard Chartered, have subsequently reduced their prime rates by 12.5 basis points, which will directly impact mortgage rates for homebuyers [4][9] Group 2 - Despite the expected positive impact of the interest rate cut on the stock market, the Hang Seng Index and other indices experienced declines, indicating that the market had already priced in the rate cut [5][7] - Analysts suggest that the reduction in interest rates may lead to a shift in investment focus from banks to real estate developers, as lower rates could compress banks' net interest margins [9][10] - The influx of non-local students and the government's plan to increase their enrollment may further stimulate rental demand, supporting rental prices in the housing market [10][11] Group 3 - The overall sentiment in the market remains optimistic for the long-term performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors like technology, consumer goods, and healthcare, which are expected to benefit from the interest rate cuts [8][9] - The potential for further interest rate reductions in Hong Kong is anticipated, as the market expects a continued easing of monetary policy [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the A - share major indices closed generally lower. Although the economic data in August was under pressure, the financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. The RMB was under short - term pressure due to Powell's hawkish remarks, but the dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts this year, which would reduce the RMB depreciation pressure and provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, and it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped from the previous level to 4487.2, a decrease of 61.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed a downward trend. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread decreased by 20.6 to 1576.4 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: Most of the seasonal - monthly spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, except for the IH seasonal - monthly spread which increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Position Holdings**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position decreased by 3206 to - 24,119 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 dropped by 52.9 to 4498.11 [2]. - **Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume increased by 7637.19 billion yuan to 31,666.43 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by 127.92 billion yuan to 24,054.44 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume increased slightly, and the reverse repurchase operation volume increased while the maturity volume decreased [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased, the Shibor increased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option increased, and other indicators showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market, technical, and capital aspects all showed a weakening trend in the Wind market strength - weakness analysis [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year and after a 9 - month pause. The A - share major indices closed generally lower, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic economic data in August was under pressure, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Fed's September FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the median dot plot implies a total of 3 rate cuts this year and 1 next year. The TC/RC fees remain weakly stable, and the factory seasonal maintenance plan will lead to production cuts in September and October. The supply of refined copper remains tight. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has started to accumulate. Overall, after the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was realized, the previous gains were partly given back, but the fundamentals are still tight. The domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, which will support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips moderately [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The previous trading of the Fed's 50bp interest - rate cut expectation led to a price increase, and after the cut of 25bp was realized, part of the gains were given back. The fundamentals are tight. The domestic copper production is expected to be significantly affected by the reduction of scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support the copper price. With the approaching of the double festivals, downstream stocking will increase, so it is advisable to buy on dips moderately [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower with a gap and fluctuated weakly, closing at 79,620 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 60 yuan/ton. On September 167, 2025, the LME official price was 9,963 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of September 12, the spot TC was - 41.42 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.16 cents/pound. The 8 - month SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply [1][7] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 32,500 tons, a decrease of 822 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 148,900 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 312,800 short tons, a decrease of 26 short tons from the previous period [11]

9月11日，美国劳工统计局公布了8月的生产者价格指数（PPI），结果数据比上个月有所下降，也比很 多人预期的要低，市场对降息的预期大幅增强。那么，美联储到底为什么要降息？降息会带来哪些影 响？我们普通投资者该如何抓住机会进行资产配置？ 降息是指央行降低基准利率，以刺激经济增长、促进货币流通量的一种货币政策。当经济放缓或通货膨 胀率较低时，央行可能会采取降息措施，以降低借贷成本，鼓励企业和个人增加投资和消费。而美联储 相当于美国的央行机构。 持续学习，保持谨慎：金融市场不断变化，需要持续学习新知识，保持谨慎乐观的心态。 数据来源：Wind，省心研究院 今年以来，白宫因美债利息负担沉重，多次呼吁美联储尽快降息，但美联储始终未予响应。直到8月1 日，美国公布的7月非农就业人数远低于预期，并且大幅向下修正了5月和6月的数据。进入9月后，最新 公布的8月非农就业人数再度显著不及预期，同时生产者价格指数（PPI）同比增速也低于市场预估。这 些数据强化了市场对经济放缓的担忧，使得投资者对美联储在9月降息的预期大幅升温。 如果美联储为预防经济衰退而降低基准利率，美债收益率通常随之下降，其吸引力减弱，可能导致资金 流出并寻求其 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "dot plot" indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, lowering the policy rate range to 4.00%-4.25%, which is more dovish than previous expectations, suggesting a relief from stagflation risks [1] - The latest economic forecast shows a year-end inflation rate median of 3%, above the 2% target but unchanged from the previous quarter; the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.5%, and economic growth is slightly increased from 1.4% to 1.6% [1] - The Federal Reserve is shifting its view on the temporary impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, prioritizing the prevention of economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which provides a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - On the day of reporting, the Shanghai gold price fell by 1.78%, closing at 824.1 yuan per gram [3] - According to GF Futures, the market interpreted the Federal Reserve's rate decision as neutral, with the dollar index rebounding after a decline; since September, precious metal prices have rapidly surged and reached new highs, indicating overbought conditions [4] - The outlook suggests that with increasing risks in the U.S. job market, the Federal Reserve's policy path exhibits dual characteristics of "strengthened expectations and compromised independence," which continues to suppress the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [4]

1. Marex分析师Edward Meir：美联储在利率问题上的总体立场略微偏鹰派，他们并不真正热心支持降 息。短期来看，金价可能有点超买，可能会进一步回撤至3600美元关口。 2. 澳新银行分析师：投资者 为降息周期的开始而欢呼。然而，鲍威尔的言论被认为不像市场预期的那样温和，抑制了金价的上涨。 3. 三菱日联金融集团分析师Soojin Kim：投资者认为美联储的指引不如预期鸽派。美联储谨慎表态推高 美元并打压金价。 4. XTB分析师Kathleen Brooks：隔夜美联储会议没有带来鸽派意外，因此金价回调在 意料之中，尤其是在降息50个基点的呼声稀少的情况下。 5. 独立金属交易员Wong Tai：鲍威尔称这是 风险管理式降息，引发了金价获利了结，我预计不会出现异常严重的回调。 6. "新债王"冈拉克：预计 金价将从当前水平再上涨340美元，涨幅约为9.2%。到今年年底，金价几乎肯定会收于4000美元以上。 7. 中信证券：预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态，黄金仍有不错表现。 ...

美联储的利率决议即将出炉，这是近期市场最重要的一个宏观事件，全球的资本市场都在屏息以待。目 前降息基本上是一个板上钉钉的事情，但是幅度、后续的路径，以及会议会释放什么样的信号才是市场 非常关注的一个核心。 ...

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点。据报道，这是美联储九个月来的首次降息，将使基准利率下调至4%至4.25%的 目标区间，这是近三年来的最低水平。不过，美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上，迅速给市场对"宽松周期重启"的预 期泼了冷水。据报道，鲍威尔将此次降息定性为一次"风险管理式"降息。他称："无法保证这次降息是额外降息的开始。" 据悉，美国总统特朗普已多次要求鲍威尔降息，甚至因鲍威尔维持高利率政策而抨击他为"太迟先生"。不过，3天前的9月14日，特朗普 对外表示，他预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣布"大幅降息"。 ▲美联储宣布将降息25个基点 目前市场关注的焦点在于：这轮"重新校准"的速度和深度将会是怎样？最新的市场预期与美联储自己的预测之间，已经出现了分歧。 据报道，美联储官员的预测中值显示，今年将再降息两次，但2026年全年仅有一次降息。 而目前华尔街的主流预期是，美联储的降息步伐会相对持续。根据芝商所（CME）Fedwatch工具的数据，华尔街交易员预计美联储在今 年余下的两次会议上还将降息两次，并且在2026年上半年再降息两次。许多经济学家的预测也支持这一观点，报道称他们预计明年至少 还会有 ...