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Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened due to Trump's ongoing criticism of Chairman Powell, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [1][4] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [1][2] - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are above the Federal Reserve's target, with June's CPI at 2.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2 - The absolute value and proportion of U.S. federal government interest expenditures are at historically high levels, with interest spending reaching $278.58 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for 15.6% of regular expenditures [3] - The implementation of tariff policies has created downward pressure on the U.S. economy, with GDP growth slowing to 2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, the lowest since Q1 2023 [3] - The trade deficit remains significant and unstable, with a trade gap of $60.257 billion in April 2025, which widened again to $71.517 billion in May [3] Group 3 - If Powell were to be removed, it could exacerbate the dollar's credit crisis, as market fears of presidential interference in monetary policy could lead to panic [4] - There are internal divisions among Senate Republicans regarding Powell's potential removal, suggesting that the likelihood of such an action is low and could incur high costs [4] - The divergence between the 5-year forward inflation swap rates and the 2-year overnight index swap rates reflects market fears of a loss of confidence in the dollar rather than just concerns over the Fed's independence [4]

智通财经7月24日电，美国财长贝森特表示，今年可能会出现1到2次降息；几乎每个星期都会与美联储 主席鲍威尔共进早餐。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Turkey is preparing to cut interest rates for the first time since the political crisis began in March [1] Group 1 - The anticipated interest rate cut marks a significant shift in Turkey's monetary policy [1] - This decision may impact the overall economic stability and investor confidence in Turkey [1]

Market Outlook - Bank of America Merrill Lynch CIO's capital market outlook suggests fiscal stimulus offsetting tariff impacts [1] - The report views AI from a historical perspective, comparing it to the advent of calculators [1] - Fixed income opportunities are present before potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Economists predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may complete three rate cuts by early 2026, following two previous cuts, aligning with market pricing [1] - The median forecast from 40 economists indicates that the RBA will lower the cash rate from the current 3.85% to 3.1% in the first quarter of 2026, entering a policy observation period thereafter [1] - The RBA's easing pace is more cautious compared to central banks in the UK, Canada, and New Zealand, which are also implementing rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Following the RBA's unexpected decision to maintain rates, there is a divergence in market expectations regarding future rate cuts, with some institutions predicting a slowdown in the easing cycle [3] - The unemployment rate in Australia unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, a four-year high, primarily due to stagnant hiring activity, although the annual employment growth rate remains at 2% [3] - Some analysts, including those from major banks, anticipate that the RBA will only implement two more rate cuts, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the turmoil in the U.S. financial markets driven by rising inflation, internal Federal Reserve conflicts, and political instability surrounding the potential dismissal of Fed Chair Powell, culminating in a complex interplay of economic indicators and market reactions [1][3][5]. Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly exceeding the Fed's 2% target [1]. - Price increases were noted across various sectors, with clothing prices up by 0.4%, furniture prices soaring by 1%, and household appliances experiencing a staggering 1.9% rise [1]. - A survey by the New York Fed indicated that many manufacturing and service firms plan to pass tariff costs onto consumers within three months, suggesting a potential inflationary cycle [1]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The June meeting minutes revealed a split within the Federal Reserve, with factions advocating for immediate rate cuts, a wait-and-see approach, and a hardline stance against any cuts until 2025 [3]. - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasized the need to maintain a "moderately restrictive" interest rate range of 4.25% for at least 6 to 12 months, warning of the risks of a repeat of the 1970s stagflation [3]. Political Developments - Reports surfaced of President Trump showing a letter for Powell's dismissal to Republican lawmakers, causing significant market volatility, including a $20 surge in gold prices and a 25-point drop in the dollar index [3]. - Deutsche Bank warned that Powell's removal could lead to a more than 3% drop in the dollar and a 30-40 basis point rise in long-term Treasury yields, potentially worse than the 1970s interventions [3]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's ambiguous statements about Powell's future, the market experienced fluctuations, with a 58% probability of a rate cut in September, down 7 percentage points from the previous day [7]. - Nvidia's announcement of U.S. government approval to export AI accelerators to China boosted market confidence, leading to a 4% rise in Nvidia's stock and a rebound in the Nasdaq index [5]. - Despite positive news, Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on Mexico and retaliatory threats from the EU contributed to a nearly 1% drop in the Dow Jones index [5].

话说特朗普上台没多久，就闹出不少事儿，让人觉得他这白宫主人当得有点儿力不从心。彭博社前阵子发的一篇报道，直接点出他最近挨了三记闷棍，第一 是爱泼斯坦那桩旧案又被翻出来，闹得沸沸扬扬，第二是他自己身体出了点状况，腿肿什么的，让媒体抓着不放，第三是美联储那边铁板一块，不肯按他的 意思降息。这三件事儿搁一块儿，简直就是特朗普从"赢赢赢"变成"输输输"的写照。更扎心的是，他想收拾马斯克，结果发现自己动不了人家半点儿，这事 儿得从头说起。 先聊聊爱泼斯坦这案子。马斯克在X平台上连发几十条帖，质疑特朗普政府在处理名单时藏着掖着，说太多有头有脸的人想把名单压下去。这话一出，美国 老百姓对名单的兴趣更大了，连特朗普的铁杆粉丝MAGA群体都开始嘀咕。特朗普赶紧出面澄清，可那些支持者不买账。结果呢，名单部分解封，特朗普 跟爱泼斯坦的旧交情又被扒拉出来，包括90年代的社交记录。特朗普气不过，起诉华尔街日报，索赔100亿美金。司法部还申请法院解封大陪审团笔录，压 力山大。马斯克这手，等于间接给了特朗普一耳光，让他这第一败来得措手不及。 特朗普说马斯克"疯了"，考虑卖掉他的特斯拉车，那车他三个月前买的，花10万美金秀支持。白宫说特朗普 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's continued interest rate cuts can significantly reduce the cost of existing debt for households, businesses, and the government, leading to substantial savings in interest payments each year [1][5] - As of June, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.6%, indicating positive changes in financial data [1] - M1 is considered a leading indicator of economic activity, as it reflects the liquidity available for consumption, investment, and trading [1][2] Group 2 - A further increase in M1 growth to between 5% and 10% is necessary for true monetary easing and to stimulate consumption, stabilize housing prices, and revitalize the stock market [2][4] - The net financing of government bonds in the first half of the year reached 7.66 trillion yuan, which is 4.32 trillion yuan more than the previous year, benefiting from the low-interest environment [4] - The corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 256.2 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a need for improved business investment confidence and further interest rate cuts [4] Group 3 - The current household debt in China amounts to approximately 80 trillion yuan, and a 1% reduction in interest rates could save households around 800 billion yuan in interest payments annually [5] - Non-financial enterprises owe about 150 trillion yuan to banks, and a 1% interest rate cut could result in an additional 1.5 trillion yuan in profits for these companies [5] - The total government debt, including hidden debts, is over 100 trillion yuan, and a 1% interest rate reduction could save the government more than 100 billion yuan in interest payments each year [5] Group 4 - There is a viewpoint that emphasizes the importance of not deliberately devaluing the currency to enhance export advantages, suggesting that market forces should dictate currency value [8] - Concerns about interest rate cuts leading to currency devaluation and capital outflow are seen as misplaced, as the primary goal of monetary policy should be to stabilize domestic economic growth and employment [8][9] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. demonstrate that aggressive monetary policies, including zero and negative interest rates, can successfully stimulate economic recovery [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral state with a slight premium. The inventory situation is neutral, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - moving 20 - day average, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Overall, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, and in the long - term, it is bullish for aluminum prices. However, with a mix of long and short factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is changeable, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 20880, with a basis of 40, showing a premium over futures, rated as neutral [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 5625 tons to 108822 tons last week, rated as neutral [2]. - Price trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, rated as bullish [2]. - Main positions: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing, rated as bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality will trigger changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices in the long - term. With a mix of long and short factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - Spot prices: The Shanghai spot price was 70770 yesterday, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price today is 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt inventory is 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory (daily) is 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 to 2024, the production, net import, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of aluminum in China are as follows: In 2018, production was 3609 million tons, net import was 7.03 million tons, apparent consumption was 3615.03 million tons, actual consumption was 3662.63 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons. In 2019, production was 3542.48 million tons, net import was - 0.64 million tons, apparent consumption was 3541.84 million tons, actual consumption was 3610.44 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 68.61 million tons. In 2020, production was 3712.44 million tons, net import was 105.78 million tons, apparent consumption was 3818.22 million tons, actual consumption was 3816.92 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 1.3 million tons. In 2021, production was 3849.2 million tons, net import was 150.33 million tons, apparent consumption was 3994.63 million tons, actual consumption was 4008.83 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 14.2 million tons. In 2022, production was 4007.33 million tons, net import was 46.55 million tons, apparent consumption was 4053.88 million tons, actual consumption was 4083.86 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 29.98 million tons. In 2023, production was 4151.3 million tons, net import was 139.24 million tons, apparent consumption was 4290.51 million tons, actual consumption was 4294.81 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 4.31 million tons. In 2024, production is expected to be 4312.27 million tons, net import is expected to be 196.16 million tons, apparent consumption is expected to be 4502.5 million tons, actual consumption is expected to be 4487.5 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be 15 million tons [24].