Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with strong earnings from Nvidia initially boosting market sentiment, but ultimately all three major indices closed lower due to renewed valuation concerns and diminished expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3]. - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down by 3%, despite CEO Jensen Huang's comments on strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denial of an AI bubble [3][4]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 52,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, slightly above the forecast of 4.3% [3][4]. - This strong employment data has further lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December now below 40% [4]. Sector Performance - Walmart was one of the few bright spots, with its stock rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [4][5]. - The market is witnessing a shift of funds from high-valuation tech stocks to defensive companies, as indicated by Walmart's performance [5]. Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5]. - Chinese concept stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5].

昨夜今晨 【美股大跌：英伟达财报未能稳住市场】 美东时间周四，美股市场上演过山车式行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指一度涨超 2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来，以及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌，纳指跌逾2%。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.84%，报45,752.26点；标普500指数跌1.56%，报6,538.76点；纳斯达克指数跌 2.15%，报22,078.05点。 另外，比特币也继续下挫，自四月以来首次跌破8.7万美元，截至发稿时报8.69万美元，跌幅超5%，盘中最低 报8.61万美元。 【美国9月非农大超预期，美联储12月决策更趋复杂】 美东时间周四，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国9月非农就业意外大增11.9万人，显著高于市场预期的5 万人。报告发布后，美国股指期货涨幅扩大，美国国债收益率全线走低，交易员继续押注美联储不会在12月的 会议上进一步降息。 失业率则从8月的4.3%升至4.4%，创2021年以来新高。此外，7月份非农新增就业人数从7.9万人下修7000人至 7.2万人；8月份非农新增就业人数从2.2万人下修2.6万至-0.4万人。修正后，7月和8月新增就业人数合计较 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huang Renxun's influence on the U.S. stock market and economy is now considered greater than that of Elon Musk, particularly following Nvidia's impressive earnings report [1][12]. Group 1: Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia reported a third-quarter revenue of $35.1 billion, with the data center segment contributing $30.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 112%, significantly surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $28.82 billion [7]. - The non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.81, up 103% year-on-year, and net profit reached $19.3 billion, compared to $9.24 billion in the same period last year [7]. - Nvidia's forecast for the fourth quarter is $37.5 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 73.5%, exceeding Wall Street's estimates and indicating strong confidence in future business growth [7][9]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock surged by 5% in after-hours trading, reversing a previous 10% decline over the past three weeks [4]. - However, the positive impact was short-lived, as the Nasdaq fell by 2.15% and the S&P 500 dropped by 1.56% the following day, with Nvidia's stock declining by 3.2% [6]. - The Cboe Volatility Index reached its highest level since April, indicating heightened investor anxiety [6]. Group 3: AI Market Dynamics - Huang Renxun emphasized the strong demand for Nvidia's new Blackwell architecture, which is expected to become a significant growth driver, with predictions of "billions" in revenue from Blackwell in the upcoming quarter [9][10]. - Nvidia has delivered 13,000 samples of the Blackwell chips to customers, and the new architecture boasts a 30-fold improvement in AI inference performance compared to the previous H100 series [9]. - The data center business, crucial for AI GPU sales, saw a quarterly sales increase of 66%, surpassing $50 billion for the first time, indicating robust global investment in AI infrastructure [13][14]. Group 4: Concerns Over AI Bubble - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, concerns about an "AI bubble" persist, with investors worried about the sustainability of AI spending and the delayed returns on investment [13][18]. - The Nasdaq has dropped nearly 5% this month, with other AI-related stocks like AMD and Oracle experiencing significant declines [13]. - Analysts have noted that while Nvidia's fundamentals remain strong, the overall market sentiment is cautious, with many investors fearing a repeat of the internet bubble [17][18]. Group 5: Strategic Investments - Nvidia has made substantial investments in AI startups, including a $10 billion investment in Anthropic, which will help the company procure Microsoft’s computing power [10]. - The company’s annual free cash flow has exceeded $80 billion, prompting discussions on how to allocate this capital effectively [16]. - Nvidia's strategy of providing loans to suppliers and startups has raised concerns about the sustainability of the AI sector, as it creates a cycle of debt and dependency on Nvidia's chips [16][17].

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，至于12月FOMC能不能降这个问题，考虑到现在距离下次开会只有不到20天，也没有其他增量数据和信息，所以美 联储如果真的就暂停一次，也不会太"不奇怪"。但"应该且需要降"，毕竟完成解决成本过高的任务还需要3次降息，且明年1月新美联储主席被提名后，上 半年降息时机也会更尴尬。按照这个思路，即便12月不降，1月也还是可以的，所以当前CME利率预期也无非是把下次降息预期从12月推后到了1月。 因此，数据公布后，几个最敏感资产如美债利率、美元、黄金等都上下起伏，但却基本变化不大，充分体现市场的"纠结"和这个数据本身有限的增量信 息。 那么，12月还能不能降息?近期因为几位美联储官员的"鹰派"表态而迅速缩减的降息预期，成了导致市场回调的"罪魁祸首"之一。 中金主要观点如下： 因政府关门"姗姗来迟"的9月非农，终于在延迟了2个多月后披露。 要说这数据没用，12月FOMC(12月11日)之前不会再有非农数据(据BLS公告，10月非农数据不会公布，而11月非农要到12月16日公布);要说这数据有用， 又已经是2个月前、且在10月已经降息之前的"旧数据"，所以聊胜于无，但用处也有限，这是一个 ...

美东时间周四，美股市场上演过山车式行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指一度 涨超2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来，以及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌。 其中，道指跌0.84%，纳指跌2.15%，标普跌1.55%。微软跌超1%，谷歌跌超1%，亚马逊跌超2%，特斯 拉跌超2%，沃尔玛涨超6%，甲骨文跌超6%。 英伟达盘中一度上涨5%，但最终收跌3%。虽然英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调Blackwell芯片的需求"爆棚"，并 否认AI泡沫的存在，但担忧情绪仍占上风。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3.26%。阿里跌超3%，拼多多跌超4%，携程跌超3%， 京东跌超1%，百度跌超4%，腾讯音乐跌超5%，小鹏跌超4%，理想跌超2%，蔚来跌超6%，满帮跌超 7%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%。 01 非农数据 "爆冷" 大增，降息预期直接 "腰斩" 就在市场为科技股涨跌纠结时，美国劳工统计局公布的 9 月非农数据给了市场一记 "重锤"。 数据显示，美国 9 月非农就业意外大增 11.9 万人，远远超出市场预估的 5.2 万；9 月失业率为 4.4%， 略高于预估的 4.3%。 报告发布后，美国股指期货涨幅扩大，美 ...

每经编辑：杜宇 当地时间11月20日，美股三大指数上演"过山车"式行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指一度涨超2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来，以 及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌。 道琼斯 ▼ DJI 46856.75 开 46567.51 45752.26 7.29亿 45728.93 量 -386.51 -0.84% 低 相关ETF 2 道琼斯ETF 2.15% 跟踪度 100% > 日K | 周K | 月K | 五日 | 更多▼ 分时 O 时间05:00 最新45752.26 -386.510 -0.838% +1.56% -46-138.770 - -0.00%- 45420.790 -1.56% 22:30 05:00 标普500 SPX 高 6538.76 6770.35 开 6737.93 37.26亿 俱 -103.40 -1.56% 6534.05 量 相关ETF 2 标普500ETF南方 3.16% 跟踪度 100% > 分时 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 五日 更多▼ 时间05:00 最新6538.76 -103.400 -1.557% +1.93% -6642-160- -0. ...

热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3.26%。阿里跌超3%，拼多多跌超4%，携程跌超 3%，京东跌超1%，百度跌超4%，腾讯音乐跌超5%，小鹏跌超4%，理想跌超2%，蔚来跌超 6%，满帮跌超7%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%。 01 非农数据 "爆冷" 大增，降息预期直接 "腰斩" 就在市场为科技股涨跌纠结时，美国劳工统计局公布的 9 月非农数据给了市场一记 "重锤"。 美东时间周四，美股市场上演过山车式行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指 一度涨超2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来，以及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌。 其中，道指跌0.84%，纳指跌2.15%，标普跌1.55%。微软跌超1%，谷歌跌超1%，亚马逊跌超 2%，特斯拉跌超2%，沃尔玛涨超6%，甲骨文跌超6%。 英伟达盘中一度上涨5%，但最终收跌3%。虽然英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调Blackwell芯片的需求"爆 棚"，并否认AI泡沫的存在，但担忧情绪仍占上风。 他甚至认为，在美联储 9 月降息后，2025 年只需再降息一次，这番言论更是给降息预期浇了一盆 冷水。 02 达利欧直言 AI 有泡沫，但 "刺破点" 未到不用急着逃 一边是降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The major U.S. stock indices experienced a significant opening but fell into negative territory due to a loss of momentum, with concerns surrounding the sustainability of AI-driven gains and broader market anxieties impacting investor sentiment [1] Group 1: AI and Technology Sector - The boost from artificial intelligence appears to be temporary, as evidenced by the performance of Nvidia's earnings, which may have only briefly restored confidence in AI trading [1] - The information technology sector led the decline in the S&P 500 index today, indicating a broader market reaction to the perceived instability of AI-related investments [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Concerns - There are growing concerns not only about the AI bubble but also about the Federal Reserve's potential decision to lower interest rates in December, which continues to loom over the market [1] - Risk-averse sentiment remains prevalent, as seen by the continued decline in Bitcoin prices over the past weeks, alongside high-momentum stocks like Robinhood and Western Digital also experiencing significant losses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's recent earnings report exceeded market expectations, but concerns about an AI bubble persist, leading to stock price fluctuations despite strong performance indicators [4][8]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Nvidia reported a 62% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $57.01 billion, and provided a strong revenue guidance of approximately $65 billion for the fourth quarter, significantly above market expectations [4][8]. - The CEO, Jensen Huang, indicated that sales from the Blackwell and Rubin product lines alone could reach $500 billion in overseas markets over the next six fiscal quarters [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the earnings announcement, stocks related to the AI ecosystem, including AMD and Broadcom, initially rose but later fell in line with broader market trends [2]. - Despite the positive earnings report, Nvidia's stock experienced a reversal, dropping after an initial 5% increase post-announcement [8]. Group 3: AI Bubble Concerns - Analysts express skepticism regarding the sustainability of capital expenditures in the AI sector, with concerns that significant investments may not yield returns in the long term [9]. - Historical comparisons are drawn to the internet bubble, where Cisco, despite strong growth, faced a dramatic decline post-bubble burst, highlighting the risks associated with high valuations [9]. Group 4: Strategic Investments - Nvidia has engaged in substantial investments in AI companies, such as a $100 billion investment in OpenAI for data center and AI infrastructure development, raising questions about potential "circular financing" risks [5][9]. - Huang defended these investments as strategic partnerships aimed at deepening technological collaboration rather than merely facilitating sales of Nvidia chips [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The global market experienced a significant downturn on November 18, 2025, with major indices and assets plummeting, yet UBS and Morgan Stanley maintain a bullish outlook on the Chinese market for 2026, highlighting a stark contrast in market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have dramatically shifted, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropping from 95% to below 50% due to hawkish signals from Fed officials [2]. - Japan's 10-year government bond yield surged to 1.75%, the highest since 2008, raising concerns about a potential massive fiscal stimulus plan from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, estimated at 17 trillion yen [2][3]. - Bitcoin fell over 6% within 24 hours, with over 180,000 liquidations amounting to $1 billion, while gold also dropped below $4,000, indicating a rare simultaneous decline in risk and safe-haven assets [7][19]. Group 2: UBS and Morgan Stanley Insights - UBS forecasts a 14% upside for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, driven by a projected 10% growth in earnings per share, supported by revenue growth and improved profit margins due to policy changes [8][11]. - Morgan Stanley adopts a more cautious stance, predicting a modest increase for the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 Index, emphasizing a "stability-first" strategy with a focus on high-quality tech and dividend stocks [12][13]. Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Market Dynamics - UBS has made significant portfolio adjustments, removing high-dividend stocks and increasing exposure to "outbound" concept stocks, while also favoring sectors like internet, hardware technology, and brokerage [10]. - The A-share market showed a clear shift in focus, with AI application concepts performing well despite overall declines, indicating a movement of funds from high-priced themes to undervalued tech stocks [15][16]. - Domestic tech companies are accelerating AI commercialization, with Baidu reporting AI application revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting the ongoing innovation-driven profit logic [16]. Group 4: External Factors and Risks - Japan's bond market volatility poses risks to global liquidity, as its net foreign assets stand at $3.7 trillion, potentially impacting global capital flows [18]. - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is seen as a critical factor for market direction, with concerns about a repeat of the negative market reaction following its previous report [18]. - The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has reached concerning levels, with potential for a chain reaction of sell-offs if Bitcoin continues to decline [19].