当地时间11月13日晚，交易大厅的屏幕像一面突然裂开的镜子，红色的数字从顶端向下流动，汇成一条无法停止的潮水。 那天早晨，我在纽约近郊的一家咖啡馆坐着，电视里播着国会停摆的最后几分钟，那场历时43天的僵局刚刚结束，市场却没有马上松一口气，反而像被重新 点燃的警报，投资者的手开始颤抖。 道琼斯、标普和纳斯达克的跌幅先后跳出，不同屏幕上的百分比像心电图上的波动，特斯拉、英伟达、谷歌、亚马逊相继变红，英伟达市值一夜蒸发约 1686.42亿美元，这是交易记录上的数字，也是电话那端分析师反复念出的冷数据，来源于交易所和公司市值统计。 我走进曼哈顿一家对冲基金的开放式办公室，几名交易员背对着窗外，指尖敲击键盘的速度没有停歇，但语气变得低沉，他们在讨论美联储政策预期的骤 变，芝商所FedWatch的数据显示，市场对12月降息25个基点的概率从70%降到了约47%，这个数据像一根针，刺在他们的自信上。 那晚，散户论坛的聊天记录被截图到微信群里，语句短促，情绪在键盘后堆积，有人问为什么会这样，有人转发财经媒体的解读，我把这些对话当作现场录 音，拼接成一个足以说明当下焦虑的切面，来源为公开论坛与参与者授权转述。 英伟达的市值蒸发 ...

Core Insights - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has shifted market sentiment, reducing risk aversion and warming up risk assets, but volatility may still be on the horizon [1] Economic Data Release - Key economic data that was delayed due to the shutdown will be released next week, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales, new housing starts and building permits, and consumer confidence index [2][6] Market Dynamics - The market has been operating on expectations during the shutdown, with the Federal Reserve unable to access the latest data. The release of this data may lead to a market re-evaluation [3] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from approximately 72% to 50% [3] - The end of the shutdown has led to a short-term increase in risk appetite, with U.S. stock futures rebounding and the dollar stabilizing, although this rebound may not indicate a trend reversal [3] Potential Market Movements - The bond market may undergo re-pricing due to delayed fiscal spending, which could increase debt risks and put upward pressure on yields. Rising yields may first impact high-leverage assets like gold and tech stocks [3] - U.S. stocks may experience a "divergent market" where sector rotation occurs rather than a broad market rally, with tech stocks sensitive to yield changes and financial stocks reacting significantly to the interest rate cycle [4] Gold Market Outlook - Gold is at a critical juncture, with its price currently in a weak but unbroken range. The upcoming week will be pivotal for gold's direction, influenced by delayed data, the Federal Reserve's stance, bond yield trends, and the re-pricing of risk assets [5][8] - If economic data is weak, rate cut expectations may rise, potentially boosting gold prices and tech stocks. Conversely, strong data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed maintaining its stance, resulting in rising bond yields and pressure on both U.S. stocks and gold [7]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a "V-shaped" reversal on November 14, 2025, with major indices initially dropping over 1% before recovering in the afternoon, reflecting a complex interplay of factors including cooling interest rate cut expectations and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones managed to maintain slight weekly gains of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a cumulative decline of 0.5% for the week [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed structural differentiation, with high-valuation tech stocks like Apple and Google facing pressure due to the news that the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve fell below 50% [2] - Afternoon trading saw a shift towards more "certain" tech sub-sectors, particularly AI chip stocks, with Micron Technology rising 4.2% following a target price upgrade from Morgan Stanley [2] - Institutional investors demonstrated clear "reallocation actions," with a net inflow of $1.2 billion into tech ETFs (XLK) in the afternoon, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities saw outflows [2] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The core issue driving market volatility is the "repricing" of Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping from 67% to below 50% [2][4] - Key Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation, indicating that without compelling evidence of a significant decline in inflation or a cooling labor market, a rate cut is unlikely [2] AI Sector Focus - Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report on November 19 is viewed as a critical test for the AI sector, with expectations that strong performance could bolster market confidence in AI growth [5] - Major investment firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs maintain "overweight" ratings on Nvidia, citing its dominant market share in AI chips (over 80%) and robust demand for computing power [5] Commodity Market Dynamics - The global commodities market displayed contrasting trends, with gold prices experiencing significant volatility, dropping nearly 4% before closing down 2.37% due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [6] - Conversely, oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude rising 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel, supported by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [7] Future Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to remain in a "range-bound" state due to ongoing "policy uncertainty" and the need to validate industry resilience [8] - Key upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting, Nvidia's earnings report, and delayed U.S. economic data releases, will significantly influence market sentiment [8]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.65% at 47147.48 points, the S&P 500 down 0.05% at 6734.11 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 22900.59 points. For the week, the Dow Jones rose 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.45% [1][2]. European Market Performance - European indices closed lower across the board, with the German DAX down 0.65% at 23860.62 points, the French CAC40 down 0.76% at 8170.09 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 1.11% at 9698.37 points. For the week, the DAX rose 1.34%, the CAC40 rose 2.77%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.16% [2]. Chinese Concept Stocks - Most popular Chinese concept stocks declined, with Futu Holdings down over 7%, Gaotu Group down over 5%, Xpeng Motors down over 5%, JD Group down over 4%, Baidu down nearly 4%, Alibaba down nearly 4%, and Tiger Brokers down about 4%. However, Canadian Solar rose over 17%, WuXi AppTec rose over 10%, and Daqo New Energy rose nearly 6% [4]. Oracle's Financial Concerns - Concerns regarding AI investments have escalated, particularly with Oracle's significant stock drop, which highlights the high valuations of tech stocks and the risks associated with massive debt financing and rapidly increasing AI capital expenditures. Oracle's stock rebounded slightly, closing up 2.44%, but it has cumulatively dropped 6.85% for the week [5][6]. - Oracle's stock has fallen nearly 30% in the past month, erasing over $250 billion in market value since its partnership announcement with OpenAI. Barclays downgraded Oracle's debt rating to "underweight," warning that its credit rating could be downgraded to BBB-, just one step above junk status. The report also indicated that Oracle's interest-bearing debt has doubled over the past decade to $111.6 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 500%, significantly higher than Amazon's 50% and Microsoft's 30% [5][6]. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have decreased significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 67% to below 50%. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding expressed concerns that further rate cuts could entrench high inflation rather than support the labor market [8]. Gold and Oil Market Movements - International gold prices fell over 2%, with COMEX gold futures down 2.62% at $4084.4 per ounce, while silver futures dropped 5.21% at $50.4 per ounce. The decline in gold prices is attributed to the market's cooling expectations for a Fed rate cut, as rising interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [10]. - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main contract for U.S. oil rising 2.15% to $59.95 per barrel, and Brent crude rising 1.97% to $64.25 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions such as attacks on oil ports and the seizure of a tanker by Iran [11].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：每日经济新闻） 当地时间11月14日，美股三大指数开盘后集体下跌，不过，纳指与标普500指数跌幅迅速收窄，其中纳 指翻红，而道指跌幅仍较大。美联储官员再度对12月降息"鹰派"表态。 此外，据央视新闻报道，瑞士联邦委员会宣布，美国对瑞士产品征收的关税从目前的39%降至15%。自 2025年8月7日以来，美国对瑞士商品加征39%的进口关税。 当地时间11月14日，美国白宫公布总统特朗普签署的最新行政令，进一步调整"对等关税"的适用范围， 将部分农业产品排除在此前依据《对等关税行政令》所征收的附加关税之外。 行政令指出，基于国内相关产品需求与产能评估，以及政府机构最新建议等因素，特朗普认为有必要修 改关税清单，以应对其在《对等关税行政令》中所宣布的"国家紧急状态"。 更新后的关税豁免表及对"结盟伙伴"的潜在调整清单将自美东时间2025年11月13日0时1分起生效。行政 令同时要求修改《美国协调关税表》，并按规定处理可能涉及的关税退还。 图片来源：视觉中国 市场方面，截至14日收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.65%，标普500指数跌0.05%，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.13%。 科技股涨跌互现，甲骨文涨超2 ...

美股开盘，三大股指大幅低开，道指跌0.78%，纳指跌1.42%，标普500指数跌1.07%。随着美联储官员 对通胀持续高于目标表示担忧，市场对美联储12月降息的预期概率周四首度跌破50%。应用材料跌超 7%，公司Q4业绩及Q1指引双超预期，但对华出口限制或致2026年营收减少6亿美元。Cidara Therapeutics美股盘前一度涨105%。消息面上，默克公司将以每股221.5美元现金收购公司，预计交易将 于2026年第一季度完成。谷歌跌近3%，公司周五发布公告称，将针对欧盟委员会的反垄断诉讼裁决提 出上诉，并拒绝拆分业务。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.78%, the Nasdaq down 1.42%, and the S&P 500 down 1.07% [1] - Concerns from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation remaining above target have led to a decline in the probability of a rate cut in December, falling below 50% for the first time [1] - Applied Materials saw a drop of over 7%, despite exceeding expectations for Q4 performance and Q1 guidance, with potential revenue reduction of $600 million by 2026 due to export restrictions to China [1] Group 2 - Cidara Therapeutics experienced a pre-market surge of 105% following the announcement that Merck will acquire the company for $221.5 per share in cash, with the deal expected to close in Q1 2026 [1] - Google shares fell nearly 3% after the company announced plans to appeal the European Commission's antitrust ruling and rejected the idea of splitting its business [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report indicates a natural decline in financial aggregate growth, and mentions points such as downplaying monetary policy quantity targets, maintaining a reasonable interest - rate ratio, and vigorously developing the bond market's "science and technology board". [2] - In October, both CPI and PPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Besides the contribution of the low - base effect, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies and industrial policies like anti - involution and capacity reduction are evident, especially in industries such as non - ferrous metals, building materials, and new energy. [2] - October financial data shows a slowdown in social financing and credit growth, with insufficient credit demand. At the same time, non - bank deposits increased by 77 billion yuan year - on - year, and the process of deposit transfer continues. [2] - The US federal government's temporary appropriation bill was passed, ending the 6 - week shutdown. The shutdown pulled down the US fourth - quarter annualized GDP growth rate by 1.5%, and the secondary impact on residents' lives is hard to estimate. The annual appropriation is still undetermined, and there may be another shutdown in two months. [2] - After the shutdown ended, the market trading theme shifted to interest - rate cuts. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a significant decline in the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut, triggering a sharp drop in US stocks and an increase in US bonds. [2] - This week's full - A trading volume was basically flat compared to last week, maintaining at around 2 trillion yuan per day. The margin trading balance rose slightly to nearly 2.5 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index once reached a new high since 4000 points but fell back at the end of Friday's session, declining 0.18% for the whole week. Major broad - based indexes turned negative at the end of Friday's session, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 falling more than 1% for the week, the SSE 50 closing flat, and micro - cap stocks performing outstandingly. The correction of the STAR Market and ChiNext continues. [2] - In terms of basis, the recent basis fluctuation range is still small. The annualized basis of each variety has decreased compared to last week. The IH has switched to a slight discount state, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM have reached around 3%, 11%, and 14% respectively, with the term structure becoming steeper, and far - month contracts having a greater advantage in hedging costs. [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Forecast Conclusion - This week's model predicts that the movement directions of the basis for IH, IF, IC, and IM next week are strengthening, weakening, weakening, and weakening respectively [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on November 14 was quoted at 958.80 yuan per gram, showing a premium of 5.6 yuan per gram over the futures main price of 953.20 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, shifting market focus to key economic data, with inflation concerns and differing views among Federal Reserve officials leading to reduced interest rate cut expectations [1] - China's manufacturing sector showed a decline in October, with exports falling more than expected, contributing to a slowdown in domestic economic growth, although October inflation data exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures reported that the precious metals market saw overall gains, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing at 956.96 yuan per gram, up 0.11%, while the main silver contract rose to 12,405 yuan per kilogram, up 0.40% [2] - The reopening of the U.S. government led to market sell-offs, and several Federal Reserve officials reiterated hawkish signals, putting short-term pressure on precious metals [2] - The current outlook for precious metals remains strong in the medium to long term, with recommendations for cautious short-term buying and opportunistic long-term purchases [2]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated that the GDP is expected to decline by 1.5% in the fourth quarter due to the government shutdown, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum which may weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Hassett's dovish statement suggests that there are few reasons to avoid interest rate cuts, which aligns with market expectations for a shift in monetary policy, potentially lowering interest rates and reducing the holding costs of gold, thus providing fundamental support for gold prices [1] - The chaotic economic data and uncertainty create a favorable environment for gold prices, as the government shutdown has resulted in a significant loss of $1.5 trillion, with the full impact taking weeks or months to clarify, leading investors to seek hard assets like gold to hedge against uncertainty [1] Structural Changes - Deep structural changes globally are undermining the dollar system, with European financial stability officials discussing the establishment of an alternative liquidity support mechanism to the Federal Reserve, aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. under the Trump administration [2] - This movement reflects a continued trend of de-dollarization and deep concerns regarding the reliability of U.S. political and policy frameworks, which could ultimately weaken the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [2] - A loss of confidence in the dollar could significantly enhance gold's monetary attributes and its function as a store of value [2] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) has shown a strong upward trend, reaching a high of approximately 4244.9 before a pullback, with bullish momentum indicated by the price crossing above the MA60, suggesting potential for further upward movement [5] - The CCI indicator is in the overbought zone and may indicate a short-term pullback opportunity, with a strategy focused on finding support levels to enter long positions [5] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested around 4199.0 with a stop loss at 4189.0 and a target range of 4220.0 to 4244.9 [6] - Silver (XAGUSD) has also shown a strong upward trend, with the price crossing above MA20 and MA60, indicating continued bullish momentum [9] - A long position for silver is recommended around 52.94 with a stop loss at 52.70 and a target range of 54.29 to 55.50 [10] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include the Eurozone's adjusted trade balance for September, U.S. retail sales for October, and PPI figures for October, which may impact market sentiment and trading strategies [10]