第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 今天影响因素： 1. 昨天（12月3日）公布的美国ADP就业数据显示，11月私营部门就业岗位意外减少3.2万人，远低于市场预期。这一数据显著增强了市场对美联储可能在下 周（12月9-10日）的会议上启动降息的预期。根据市场定价，下周降息的概率已升至约90%的高位。这一预期是支撑金价最核心的宏观动力。 2.受降息预期影响，美元指数跌至10月底以来的最低水平。美元走弱使得以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者来说更便宜，从而增加了需求。 3.尽管基本面利好，但金价在突破4200美元后并未形成新的单边上涨。相反，市场呈现明显的高位震荡和分歧： 个人思路： 金价在 4240-4250美元 区域面临强阻力，多次上攻未果。下方4200美元则是重要的心理和技术支撑。COMEX黄金期货的非商业净多头头寸出现小幅减持， 表明部分投机资金在价格高位选择了获利了结，市场情绪趋于谨慎。简单来说，强劲的降息预期托住了金价的底部，阻止其深跌；而高企的价格和关键技术 阻力则压制了其短期上涨空间，使得市场陷入震荡。 面对这种"上有顶、下有底"的震荡行情，策略思路是 "关键 ...

港股通周三净流入 23 亿港元，其中小米集团(01810.HK)净流入最多，达 8.7 亿港元，其次是阿里巴巴 (09988.HK)。另一方面，腾讯控股(00700.HK)录得最大净流出，达 7.3 亿港元，其次是中芯国际 (00981.HK)。 来源：凯基证券 大市点评 周三美股开盘之前，薪资处理机构 ADP 报告称，11 月私营部门就业人数意外减少3.2 万人，而经济学 家此前预计当月为增加 4 万人。这份数据表现不佳，显示劳动力市场萎缩，使交易员增大了美联储在下 周货币政策会议上降息的预期。根据 CME FedWatch 工具，市场目前预计美联储在下週三降息的可能性 为 89%，远高于11月中旬时预测的几率。投资者预期较低的利率环境将刺激贷款增长并给美国经济带 来提振，这推动金融股股价週三走高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The exchange rate of USD/CAD is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, ongoing low international oil prices, and the fundamental economic differences between the two countries [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut, with over 80% probability priced in for a 25 basis point cut in December, supported by comments from key officials [1] - In contrast, the Bank of Canada faces challenges with weak economic recovery and pressured energy exports, having already cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% in September [1] - Market expectations suggest that if low oil prices persist, the Bank of Canada may initiate another round of rate cuts in Q1 of next year, which could continue to suppress the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2: Oil Price Impact - Low international oil prices are significantly affecting the Canadian dollar, with WTI crude oil prices down 15.2% year-to-date and facing pressure from global demand concerns and unexpected OPEC+ production increases [2] - As a major oil-exporting country, Canada has seen its crude oil export revenues decline, with only a slight increase of 0.2% in Q3, which limits the resilience of the Canadian dollar [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Signals - The USD/CAD exchange rate has formed an upward channel since hitting a low of 1.3780 in October, currently stabilizing around the key support level of 1.3950 [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 1.3980-1.4000, while support is focused on the 1.3940-1.3920 range, indicating potential market movements [2] - Upcoming signals to watch include the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, OPEC+'s production decisions, and Canada's November employment data, which will influence economic resilience and central bank policy direction [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for the Industry The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it offers trend intensities for various commodities: - **Strongly Bullish**: Copper [9] - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Zinc, Aluminum, Cast Aluminum Alloy [5][12][22] - **Neutral**: Lead, Tin, Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Logs, p - Xylene, PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, Bottle Chips, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (Europe Line), Short - Fiber, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [15][18][27][31][36][40][46][51][55][57][61][70][73][131][85][92][97][100][103][114][117][119][138][141][148][151][159][165][171] - **Bearish**: Iron Ore, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, Sugar, Live Pigs [43][76][80][90][155][167] - **Strongly Bearish**: None 2. Core Views The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and news of various commodities. Key views include: - **Precious Metals**: Gold is influenced by rising rate - cut expectations, and silver is accelerating its upward movement [5]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are rising due to multiple drivers, and zinc is oscillating with a bullish bias [9][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PX is in a high - level oscillating market with a widening PXN, and MEG is recommended to be long while PTA is short [61]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil is waiting for a turning - point confirmation, and soybean oil is oscillating due to insufficient US soybean drivers [141]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Rising rate - cut expectations drive price increases. The price of domestic and international gold futures and spot has increased, and ETF holdings have also increased slightly [5]. - **Silver**: It is accelerating its upward movement and reaching new highs. The price of domestic and international silver futures and spot has risen significantly, and trading volume has increased [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Multiple drivers, including a potential supply shortage in 2026 and strong Asian demand, are pushing prices higher. Futures and spot prices are rising, and inventory changes vary [9]. - **Zinc**: It is oscillating with a bullish bias. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot premiums have changed [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory limits price corrections. Futures and spot prices are relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [15]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again. Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices have decreased slightly [18]. - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly, while alumina is under pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Futures and spot prices of aluminum have increased, and inventory has decreased [22]. - **Nickel**: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is oscillating at a low level. Futures and spot prices are relatively stable, and inventory changes are small [31]. - **Stainless Steel**: High inventory and weak supply - demand result in a cost - limited downside. Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are relatively stable [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillating within a range, and the actual progress of major manufacturers'复产 needs attention. Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices have decreased slightly [36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is mainly running weakly. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [40]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of news. Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are relatively stable [40]. - **PX**: PXN is continuously widening, and it is in a high - level oscillating market. Futures and spot prices are falling slightly, and processing margins are widening [61]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillating market on a single - side. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [61]. - **MEG**: Long MEG and short PTA positions are recommended. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [61]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating weakly. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [66]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is oscillating and falling. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [70]. - **LLDPE**: The basis has turned positive, and supply remains loose. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [73]. - **PP**: It has a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is under pressure. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [76]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trend is still under pressure. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are falling [80]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating. Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are relatively stable [85]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [90]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating, and the upside space is narrowing. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [92]. - **Urea**: Spot trading volume has continuously increased, and the price center has shifted upward. Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are relatively stable [97]. - **Styrene**: It is oscillating in the short term. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are relatively stable [100]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [103]. - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [105]. - **Propylene**: The pattern remains loose. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [106]. - **PVC**: It is oscillating at a low level. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [114]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is making narrow adjustments, and the weak trend continues. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [117]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to weaken at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market slightly narrowed. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [117]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Waiting for a turning - point confirmation, and it is temporarily traded within a range. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are rising [141]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating due to insufficient US soybean drivers. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [141]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating as the market waits for Chinese purchases of US soybeans. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are relatively stable [148]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating. Futures prices are rising slightly, and spot prices are relatively stable [148]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are relatively stable [151]. - **Sugar**: Running weakly. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [155]. - **Cotton**: Supply and demand are both strong. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are rising slightly [159]. - **Eggs**: The volume of culling has increased, and the sentiment for chick - replenishing has also strengthened. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [165]. - **Live Pigs**: An increase in supply is approaching, and the industrial logic is returning. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are falling [167]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [171].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Spot discount expansion is difficult to hinder the rise of aluminum prices. Although the spot market seems weak and the absolute price rise leads to the continuous expansion of the spot discount, which may affect inventory performance and limit the upward elasticity of aluminum prices, the macro - environment is favorable, and aluminum prices rise synchronously with copper prices. Low inventory and potential reduction during the traditional off - season are positive factors. The market is optimistic about future consumption, and the expectation of inventory reduction before the Spring Festival needs attention [6]. - For alumina, the decline in the futures price and the large discount of near - month contracts are conducive to warehouse receipt transactions and relieving warehouse receipt pressure, but there are few positive factors in the fundamentals, and social inventory pressure remains. The reduction in production in the north due to environmental protection has limited impact on the current oversupply situation. The cost support of bauxite is being tested, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,800 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,680 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changes by - 15 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,940 yuan/ton, closed at 21,940 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,970 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 161,612 lots, and the position was 249,248 lots [2]. Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 66,833 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 533,400 tons, with a change of - 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On December 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,825 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,760 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,850 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 314 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,671 yuan/ton, closed at 2,636 yuan/ton, with a change of - 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 1.53%. The highest price reached 2,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,626 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 204,508 lots, and the position was 344,387 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 74,600 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 59,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 269 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: It is accelerating its upward movement and reaching new highs [2][4]. - Copper: Driven by multiple factors, the price is strengthening [2][8]. - Zinc: It is oscillating with a slight upward trend [2][11]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limits price corrections [2][14]. - Tin: There are new disruptions in supply [2][17]. - Aluminum: It is operating strongly [2][21]. - Alumina: It continues to face downward pressure [2][21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: It is fluctuating within a narrow range [2][24]. - Palladium: It is consolidating horizontally [2][24]. - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit its upward potential, and it is oscillating at a low level [2][29]. - Stainless Steel: High inventory and weak supply - demand conditions exist, and cost limits the downside potential [2][29]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D increased by 1.05% and 1.15% respectively during the day, and 0.66% and 0.19% respectively at night. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512 and Silver T + D increased by 4.46% and 4.72% respectively during the day, and 5.08% and 3.27% respectively at night. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts also changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 14,820 kilograms [4]. - **Macro - news**: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 people, the largest drop since March 2023 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [6]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 0.33% during the day and 1.74% at night, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk increased by 2.72%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,599 tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons. The premium of some copper products also changed [8]. - **Macro - and Industry News**: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, and the global copper market is expected to have a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. Chilean copper companies have adjusted their prices and premiums [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 2 [10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 0.04%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 1.15%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [11]. - **Premium and Inventory**: The premiums of Shanghai 0 zinc and LME CASH - 3M changed, and the inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 207 tons, while the LME zinc inventory increased by 75 tons [11]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary made remarks on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and tariffs [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [11]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract remained unchanged, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.30%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [14]. - **Premium and Inventory**: The premiums of Shanghai 1 lead and LME CASH - 3M changed, and the inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 1,502 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,800 tons [14]. - **News**: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 0.50% during the day and decreased by 0.27% at night, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.15%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [17]. - **Inventory and Price**: The inventory of Shanghai tin increased by 27 tons, and the price of some tin products changed [17]. - **Macro - and Industry News**: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, and other macro - and industry news [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [20]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices and trading volumes of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy main contracts changed to varying degrees [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged, and the premiums of some products changed [21]. - **News**: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, and the US ISM service industry index expanded at the fastest pace in nine months [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [23]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices and trading volumes of platinum and palladium contracts changed, and the ETF holdings also changed [25]. - **Macro - and Industry News**: The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 0, and palladium trend intensity is 0 [27]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices and trading volumes of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel main contracts changed [29]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The prices and spreads of products in the nickel and stainless steel industrial chains changed [29]. - **Macro - and Industry News**: There were issues such as the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, the suspension of non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and the suspension of new smelting licenses in Indonesia [29][32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [33].

有色金属日报 2025-12-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn LME 铜现货供应预期收紧，嘉能可下调 2026 年铜生产指引中值，美国 ADP 就业人数弱于预期，美元 指数走弱，铜价拉涨，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 2.72%至 11448 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 90760 元/ 吨。LME 铜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to continue the two - way fluctuation pattern of "weak US dollar and stable RMB", with the core fluctuation range between 7.05 - 7.10. The RMB appreciation rhythm will be relatively mild, and the two - way fluctuation characteristics will be more obvious. Some institutions predict that the US dollar - RMB exchange rate may gradually approach 7.025 by the end of December [4]. - The short - term profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises is under pressure and is likely to maintain a weak shock pattern. In the medium - and long - term, the profitability of industrial enterprises is expected to enter a gradual repair channel in 2025 [2]. - Stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term due to the balance between long and short forces [6]. - For treasury bonds, medium - term long positions can be continued to hold, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. - The container shipping European line futures price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game between the expectation of resuming navigation and the price - holding actions of shipping companies [8]. - For precious metals, in the medium - and long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise, and in the short - term, the price elasticity is increased [16]. - For base metals such as copper and aluminum, the prices are affected by factors like the increase in LME copper cancelled warrants, the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations, and the improvement of macro - sentiment, showing different trends [17][19]. - For black commodities, the prices of steel products may gradually increase in shock, and iron ore prices will maintain a high - level shock pattern [23][27]. - For energy and chemical products, the oil price is in a game between geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals, showing a downward shock trend in the medium - and long - term; other products have different trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [33][35]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different varieties such as pigs, oilseeds, and oils are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather, showing different trends [77][78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US ADP data unexpectedly declined, with employment decreasing by 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM services PMI expansion rate reached the fastest in nine months, with the price index at a seven - month low and the employment index at a six - month high. The new Fed Chairman Hasset is likely to be appointed, and bond investors have warned the US Treasury [1][5]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0661, up 51 points. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people, the lowest since March 2023. The short - term RMB - US dollar exchange rate is expected to be in a two - way fluctuation pattern [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 76.532 billion yuan. The US ADP data made investors almost certain that the Fed would cut interest rates next week, but the impact on the market was limited. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [4][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: T, TF, TS fluctuated and closed up, while TL continued to decline. The open - market reverse repurchase was 7.93 billion, with a net withdrawal of 13.4 billion. The money market was loose. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, and medium - term long positions can be continued to hold [6][7]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures price of the container shipping European line continued to fluctuate. The market focused on the game between the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea and the price - holding actions of shipping companies in late December. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [8][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium were mainly driven by investment attributes, showing a shock - upward trend. The Fed's December interest rate cut probability was about 89%. Long - term platinum ETFs increased, while palladium ETFs decreased [13]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver were in a shock pattern. The US ADP data supported the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In the medium - and long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise [14][16]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose sharply due to the large increase in LME copper cancelled warrants and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. The short - term copper price is expected to remain high [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of Shanghai aluminum was shock - upward, mainly driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be shock - upward [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a shock - upward trend. The ADP data strengthened the interest rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc may shrink, and the demand is in the off - season [20]. - **Tin**: The tin price rose driven by funds. The short - term supply is tight, and the interest rate cut expectation is strong. It is not recommended to short in the short - term [20][21]. - **Lead**: The lead price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply of the lead smelting end decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [21][22]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were shock - upward. The overseas macro - sentiment was warming up, and the market expected policy support. However, the iron ore valuation was high, and there was a risk of decline [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose first and then fell. The short - term fundamentals improved, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [26][27]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal price was under pressure, and the coke price may face a decline. The 01 contract of coking coal can hold short positions, and the 05 contract can be considered for long - term allocation [29][30]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were shock - downward. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [31][32]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The oil price was in a game between geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals, showing a downward shock trend in the medium - and long - term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [33][35]. - **LPG**: The LPG price was in a shock pattern. The supply increased slightly, and the demand changed little [36][37]. - **PTA - PX**: The PTA - PX supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. The aromatics blending oil speculation has cooled down, and the PTA processing fee has been repaired to a certain extent [38][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The MEG valuation is under pressure. The supply has increased, and the demand is expected to decline. The 12 - month inventory accumulation expectation is revised to a tight balance [43][46]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract of methanol maintains a weak expectation. The main factors affecting it include the slow unloading in ports and the situation of Iranian device shutdown [47][48]. - **PP**: The PP price has a marginal improvement expectation. The supply may decrease, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation and the basis change [49][50]. - **PE**: The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and the basis change [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the price of Dar Blend stabilizes [55][56]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is in a weak shock pattern. The winter storage may be insufficient in quantity, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy [56][58]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber price is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, and the synthetic rubber price may decline. The difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is expected to expand [62][63]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The high supply is under pressure, but the export policy provides support [64][65]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: The soda ash price is mainly cost - determined, and the glass price is affected by cold - repair expectations. The caustic soda price is expected to be weak [66][68]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is expected to continue to rise, and the offset paper price is expected to be shock - upward [69][70]. - **Log**: The log price is in a low - level shock pattern, and the supply and demand are not improved [71][72]. - **Propylene**: The propylene market remains loose, and the price is in a shock pattern [74][75]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure of pigs is still high, and the long - term supply may be affected by policies [77]. - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is mainly concerned with the supply and Chinese procurement. The domestic soybean meal lacks a single - side driver, and the rapeseed meal has a supply recovery expectation [78][79]. - **Oils**: The oil price is in a shock pattern. The supply pressure of palm oil and soybean oil exists, and the supply of rapeseed oil may be alleviated [80]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is supported by the downstream demand. Pay attention to whether it can break through the hedging pressure level [81]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is in a weak state, affected by factors such as production in India and Brazil [82][84]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg production capacity is still excessive, and the short - term price may rebound [85]. - **Apples**: The apple price maintains a strong pattern, and the inventory is increasing [86]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is in a low - level shock pattern. Pay attention to the new jujube production determination [87][88].

消息面上，美国11月ADP就业人数意外减少3.2万，数据显示劳动力市场萎缩，使投资者增大了对美联 储将于下周降息的押注。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储在下周三降息的可能性为 89%。此外，CSPT近期达成共识决定2026年度降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，改善铜精矿供需基本面。 银河证券发布研报称，矿冶博弈刺激铜价上涨。此外，美国后续仍有可能对铜加征关税的可能性下，美 铜"虹吸效应"导致的全球库存分布异化、非美地区库存低位，以及美联储在四季度持续的降息与可能的 停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，都有望带动铜价继续上涨。 铜业股全线高开，截至发稿，江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨4.34%，报35.12港元；五矿资源 (01208)涨4.04%，报8.5港元；中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨3.77%，报0.11港元；中国有色矿业(01258)涨 3.16%，报17.29港元。 ...

图片来源：芝商所网站 美股科技股多数下跌，美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.43%，微软跌2.5%，英伟达、Meta均跌超1%，特斯拉上涨超4%，谷歌涨超1%。 当地时间12月3日，美股三大指数集体收涨，但大型科技股多数承压。微软跌2.5%，英伟达、Meta均跌超1%，特斯拉上涨超4%，谷歌涨超1%。 美国11月私营部门就业岗位减少3.2万个，强化市场对美联储12月降息的预期，推动白银价格创下历史新高。 美股三大指数收涨 数据显示，截至当地时间12月3日收盘，道指涨0.86%，标准普尔500指数涨0.3%，纳指涨0.17%。联合健康股价上涨超4%，高盛涨超2%，成为道指上涨主 要推动力。 美国自动数据处理公司3日发布数据显示，美国11月私营部门就业岗位数据下修，市场降息预期进一步强化。芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场对12月 美联储降息的预期概率升至89%。 | TARGET RATE (BPS) | PROBABILITY(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | NOW . | 1 DAY 2 DEC 2025 | 1 WEEK 26 NOV ...