1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile market, influenced more by macro - emotions, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range and run relatively strongly in the near future, as the continuous stimulus of recent macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market to some extent, alleviating the previous pessimistic sentiment [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,020 yuan/ton and closed at 122,440 yuan/ton, a change of 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 96,355 lots, and the open interest was 73,889 lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly after a low - open in the night session, maintained a volatile trend after reaching a high and declined slightly. It maintained a strong volatile trend after the opening of the day session and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest continued to decrease slightly. The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong intention to hold prices, and downstream iron plants' pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly +24, flat month - on - month. The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 124,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum slowed down slightly. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, and spot trading did not improve. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,693 (- 30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,746 (+450) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly operate within the range for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,150 yuan/ton and closed at 13,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,429 lots, and the open interest was 143,674 lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a volatile trend, continued the trend after the opening of the day session, and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The market supply of stainless steel was in short supply, traders had a clear intention to hold prices, and with the continuous stimulus of macro - policy news, the spot price of stainless steel further increased. However, downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high - priced goods, resulting in intense market gaming and poor trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium or discount was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [2] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX prices declined this week due to the dissipation of macro - sentiment. Its fundamentals had little change, and the expected increase in supply from newly - commissioned reforming units affected market sentiment, but had no significant impact on the supply - demand balance. PX inventory was at a year - on - year low, so the price continued to fluctuate with support at the bottom. PTA prices fell and remained low, with no unexpected news. The spot supply was sufficient, and the impact of planned PTA plant overhauls was already factored in, while unplanned production cuts had limited market - boosting effects. The continuous shipment by major PTA suppliers weakened the spot basis, and downstream demand remained sluggish [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Concerns about Russia's oil supply disruptions are expected to ease, and crude oil prices will continue to be under pressure. An East China 1 million - ton PX plant may restart, but Asian supply is relatively low, and new PTA plants' procurement provides a bottom for PX demand. In the PTA market, some plants will overhaul and some will restart, and supply will be sufficient next week. For polyester, the first - round overhaul of polyester filament has been implemented, and the theoretical production losses of most polyester products have narrowed, with polyester filament POY slightly profitable, so polyester factories are not expected to overhaul for now. In the weaving sector, the shipment of autumn and winter fabrics has improved locally, and a small number of foreign trade orders have been placed, but most factories lack orders. Overall, PX will fluctuate in the range of 6,650 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and PTA will fluctuate in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - **Weekly Summary**: PX prices dropped due to macro - sentiment fading, with stable fundamentals and expected supply increase. PTA prices declined and remained low, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil prices will be under pressure. PX will maintain a range - bound trend with a potential plant restart and stable demand. PTA supply will be sufficient next week. Polyester factories may not overhaul, and weaving orders are still scarce. PX will fluctuate between 6,650 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and PTA between 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The strategy is to observe [9]. 3.2 Price Situation - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract on August 8 was 6,726 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.26%. The settlement price on August 8 was 6,748 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.43%. The average PX domestic spot price from August 4 - 8 was 6,741.4 yuan/ton, down 154.4 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.24% [14][15]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract on August 8 was 4,684 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.28%. The settlement price on August 8 was 4,688 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.53%. The average PTA arrival price in the Chinese market from August 4 - 8 was 594.4 US dollars/ton, down 20.4 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of - 3.32%. The average PTA spot price in the East China market was 4,681.8 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.9% [19][22]. 3.3 Device Operation Situation - **PX Devices**: Many domestic PX plants are operating at different loads, and some plants in Asia have restarted or are under maintenance. The domestic PX operating rate has recovered, with the rate from August 4 - 8 at 82.01%, up from 80.66% from July 28 - August 1 [27][29][32]. - **PTA Devices**: Some PTA plants have carried out overhauls, and the weekly PTA operating rate has decreased by 3.75%. Although some plants are restarting, supply remains sufficient [35][36]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: - **Crude Oil**: WTI crude oil's August 8 futures settlement price was 63.88 US dollars/barrel, down 3.45 US dollars/barrel from August 1. Brent crude oil's August 8 futures settlement price was 66.59 US dollars/barrel, down 3.08 US dollars/barrel from August 1. OPEC + production increase, trade disputes, and other factors have put pressure on oil prices [43]. - **Naphtha**: The weekly average CFR Japan naphtha price was 578.32 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 37.49 US dollars/ton. The supply - demand structure was stable, and the price decline mainly followed crude oil [50]. - **PX Spot**: The weekly average CFR China main port PX price was 840.25 US dollars/ton, a change of - 1.83% from the previous period; the weekly average FOB Korea price was 813.60 US dollars/ton, a change of - 2.14% from the previous period. The spot market buying interest was weak during the polyester off - season [53]. - **Supply**: - **PX Processing Margin**: The PXN weekly average was 261.94 yuan/ton, with a 1.66% change from the previous period, and the PX - MX margin continued to rise [56]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The average PTA spot processing fee from August 4 - 8 was 154.48 yuan/ton, down from the previous week's 202.74 yuan/ton, falling below the industry average break - even point [59]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, PTA social inventory was 4.51 million tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous week, with a - 1.06% change in the month - on - month growth rate. PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.12 days, while polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.30 days [63][65]. - **Demand**: - **Polyester Products**: The average prices of some polyester products have changed slightly, with some rising and some falling. The first - round reduction of polyester filament in August has been implemented. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from August 4 - 8 was estimated at 60%. Polyester factories' average weekly load was 86.68%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms' average weekly load was 57.83%. Long - filament production and sales are expected to pick up next week [70][76]. - **Weaving**: Most weaving factories lack orders, and only a few can produce until mid - September. The operating rates of various regions' weaving machines have remained stable [84].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about potential supply surplus and demand slowdown [1][4][5] - Oil prices have fallen sharply in August, marking the longest consecutive decline since 2021, with Brent and WTI crude oil hovering around $66 and $64 per barrel respectively [1] - The significant pullback in oil prices is primarily attributed to the easing of geopolitical risk premiums, particularly following positive signals regarding potential U.S.-Russia negotiations [4] Group 2 - OPEC+ has decided to relax production limits, raising investor concerns about a possible supply surplus later this year [5] - The Brent crude spot price spread has narrowed to a premium structure of $0.53 per barrel, down from over $1 a month ago, indicating a significant easing of short-term supply tightness [6] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing growth due to broad trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which poses a potential threat to energy demand [7]

【尿素期货短期偏空震荡，后续工业需求或带来行情转机】今日，尿素期货低开低走，日内承压运行。 现货市场情绪降温，价格趋于稳定。 从基本面看，近期尿素日产维持在19万吨左右。夏季后续产量预 计小幅减少，但难改供应过剩格局。 需求方面，农业需求零星拿货，复合肥工厂开工率攀升且将持续 上行。后期对尿素需求增加，但当前市场情绪不高，工厂适量拿货，不急于采购原料。 本期装置检修 增加，尿素库存开始去化。近期反内卷举措刺激煤炭上涨，支撑尿素成本端。 出口消息扰动盘面价 格，下游普遍观望，情绪谨慎。短期尿素期货偏空震荡，但后续工业需求有增量，行情下方空间有限。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Industry Overview - As of July 31, the PVC production capacity utilization rate increased to 76.84%, up 0.05% week-on-week and 3.64% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method utilization rate decreased to 76.03%, down 3.22% week-on-week and 0.28% year-on-year, while the ethylene method increased to 78.99%, up 8.71% week-on-week and 14.68% year-on-year [1] - Recent maintenance activities at various plants, including UHV Chemical and Erdos, along with the resumption of operations at Qilu Petrochemical and others, contributed to the slight increase in PVC capacity utilization [1] Cost Analysis - The cost of calcium carbide in UHV is quoted at 2200 CNY/ton, while the price of medium coal is 605 CNY/ton, and ethylene is priced at 820 USD/ton, indicating stable cost conditions [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guangzhou Futures, with the continuous rise in prices, the profit margins for PVC and caustic soda plants are recovering, leading to increased operational enthusiasm among companies, which is expected to result in a production rebound in August [2] - However, new capacity from Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons) and Fujian Wanhua (500,000 tons) is anticipated to exert supply pressure, while downstream operations remain low due to high temperatures [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Hualian Futures noted a slight increase in supply due to the resumption of operations at several plants, maintaining overall supply at high levels compared to the same period last year. The downstream production rate saw a minor rebound, particularly in pipe manufacturing, but overall demand remains weak due to adverse weather conditions and ongoing real estate sector challenges [3] - Inventory levels are fluctuating, with upstream factory inventories decreasing while social inventories are increasing. Cost factors such as calcium carbide and ethylene prices remain stable, but there is insufficient valuation support [3]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a strategic shift from defending oil prices to regaining market share [2][5] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - The agreement reached in the recent meeting allows for a gradual exit from the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction plan initiated in 2023 [2] - OPEC+ retains the option to reassess the 1.66 million barrels per day of suspended production, depending on market conditions [2][7] - The upcoming meeting on September 7 will further evaluate the production strategy [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The increase in production is seen as a response to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, providing relief to consumers but raising concerns about potential oversupply [2][5] - Analysts warn that the market may face significant oversupply by the end of the year due to increased production and slowing global economic growth [5][10] - Despite the increase, oil prices have shown resilience, recovering from earlier lows, partly due to OPEC+ not fully meeting its production commitments [6][11] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The production increase coincides with U.S. President Trump's pressure on OPEC+ leaders, particularly Russia, regarding oil prices amid the Ukraine conflict [3][12] - The dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Russia remain crucial, as both countries have historically led OPEC+ [3] Group 4: Future Considerations - The fate of the remaining 1.66 million barrels per day reduction remains uncertain, with OPEC+ officials indicating that all options are on the table, including potential pauses or reversals of recent production increases [7][8] - Market analysts predict that OPEC+ may need to consider further production cuts in the coming months if oversupply issues persist [9][11]

OPEC+以又一次大幅增产结束了其为期两年的石油策略篇章，但通过对其下一步行动保持战略模糊，该组织给全球原油交易员留下 了一个巨大的悬念，也为市场注入了新的不确定性。 周日，由沙特阿拉伯领导的OPEC+批准了每日54.7万桶的产量提升，提前一年完成了对2023年大规模减产的完全撤销。 | | | | Change in Crude Production From March 2025 to June 2025 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Required (kb/d) | Planned | Realized estimates | % of quota increase translated in production | | | | | compensation cuts (kb/d) | (kb/d) | without | with compensation | | | | | | compensation cuts | cuts | | Algeria | 20 | 0 | 15 | 75% | 75% | | Iraq | 86 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities (crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride) are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025. It takes into account factors such as price changes, trade agreements, production data, and supply - demand relationships. Overall, most commodities are expected to show an oscillating trend, with specific trends affected by factors like tariffs, production capacity utilization, and downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI 9 - month contract fell by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a 1.06% drop; Brent 9 - month contract dropped by $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a 0.97% decline; SC2509 closed at 528.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan or 0.71%. Trade agreements and potential sanctions may affect future oil demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur (FU2509) and low - sulfur (LU2510) fuel oil declined. The overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure. If oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may rebound. The LU - FU spread has rebounded from a low level [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2509) rose. The supply is expected to increase, but the increment is limited. The demand is affected by precipitation, but there is positive support after the rainy season. The spot price is relatively firm, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilization [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 prices fell on Thursday. Some production facilities had temporary shutdowns and restarts. With cost support from the peak oil demand season, increased supply, and resilient downstream demand, polyester prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber contracts declined. In June, global natural rubber production decreased by 1.5% to 1191,000 tons, while consumption increased by 0.7% to 1271,000 tons. With increased rainfall in domestic production areas and improved downstream tire production and sales, rubber prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [3][5] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian device load returned to a high level and the arrival volume increased, the downstream profit and start - up remained stable, and inventory continued to increase. Methanol prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand. As long as the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space is limited [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply of PVC remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing with slow inventory decline. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day [8] 3.3 Market News - Trump announced a 90 - day extension of the trade agreement with Mexico, with Mexico continuing to pay certain tariffs. Market analysts believe these tariffs are unfavorable to future oil demand [10] - On July 31, the EIA data showed that US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. OPEC members have accelerated production increases since May, which may lead to market supply surplus [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and their changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including the spreads between different months [44][45][46] 3.4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, etc. [65][66][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some commodities, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [69][74] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, awards, and professional experiences [76][77][78] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [81]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors, but ultimately fell due to oversupply conditions [1][2][9] Nickel Price Trends - In Q1, nickel prices rose to a high of 136,000 yuan/ton due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but in Q2, prices declined as oversupply became a concern [1] - Specific events influencing prices included Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction in January, trade tensions affecting demand in April, and subsequent policy changes in Indonesia and the Philippines [1][2] Policy Impact - Indonesian and Philippine nickel mining policies significantly affect nickel prices, with both countries accounting for nearly 70% of global nickel production by 2024 [2][3] - Policies can be categorized into "quantity" (e.g., RKAB quotas, export bans) and "price" (e.g., HMA price adjustments, increased resource usage fees), with quantity controls having a more immediate market impact [3] Supply Dynamics - Nickel production capacity is expected to continue growing, particularly in Indonesia, despite a slowdown in new project launches due to declining nickel prices [4][5] - The MHP production capacity is expanding, while the high-nickel battery market is facing challenges, leading to a subdued performance in the nickel sulfate market [4][5] Demand Outlook - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, is facing pressure due to high nickel iron costs and weak downstream consumption [7] - The electric vehicle sector, a key growth area for nickel demand, is experiencing increased competition, leading to a decline in the market share of ternary batteries [8] Market Forecast - The overall nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied, with prices likely to fluctuate between 110,000 and 128,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [9]

Gold Sector - The U.S. Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought indicated that President Trump has clearly stated that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, amidst accusations of lavish spending by Powell on building renovations [1] - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that the escalating U.S. debt crisis is akin to an economic heart attack, with interest payments rapidly consuming government spending [1] - Key upcoming events include tariff negotiations before the August 1 deadline, the Federal Reserve's meeting, and non-farm payroll data, which may increase market volatility [1] - Technically, gold prices surged to a high of $3438 but experienced a significant decline, closing the week with a bearish candle; a potential rebound is possible if prices surpass the $3348 mark [1] Oil Sector - OPEC+ is set to hold a market oversight committee meeting on August 4, with expectations of adjustments to production plans, aiming to gradually reclaim lost market share with an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August [2] - JP Morgan's analysis shows a year-on-year increase in global oil demand of 700,000 barrels per day in July, while global oil inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels, raising concerns about oversupply [2] - The recent trade framework agreement between the EU and the U.S. has reduced tariffs on European goods to 15%, alleviating some investor concerns, but the overall impact of tariff policies remains significant for oil demand [2] - Technically, oil prices have been in a weak consolidation phase, with a higher probability of further declines; resistance is noted at $66.50 and support at $64, with a potential drop to $60 if support is breached [2] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index saw a significant rise starting last Wednesday, reaching a high of 42063, surpassing the peak from July 12, 2024, but began to retreat on Friday [3] - Short-term resistance is observed at 41300, while support is noted at 40400 [3] Copper Sector - Copper prices continued to rise last week, reaching a high of $5.88, indicating strong bullish momentum with potential for further increases [4] - Short-term focus is on the support level at $5.66 and resistance at $5.86 [4]