Core Viewpoint - The overall trend in the rebar market indicates a decline in prices and inventory levels, reflecting a weak demand in the real estate sector and high production levels in the steel industry [1][5]. Price Summary - As of May 19, the average price of rebar in 31 major cities is 3312 CNY/ton, down 23 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - On May 20, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3058.00 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 0.59%, reaching a high of 3080.00 CNY/ton and a low of 3050.00 CNY/ton during the day [2]. Inventory and Warehouse Data - On May 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded rebar warehouse receipts at 51625 tons, a decrease of 89442 tons from the previous trading day [3]. - Over the past week, rebar warehouse receipts have decreased by 97372 tons, a reduction of 65.35% [3]. - In the last month, the total reduction in rebar warehouse receipts is 145938 tons, representing a decrease of 73.87% [3]. - As of May 16, rebar inventory was recorded at 143201 tons, down 13838 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures research, the real estate sector has shown continued weakness in April, while manufacturing investment has declined from high levels. The production of crude steel and pig iron remains elevated, leading to an accumulation of supply-demand contradictions in the domestic steel market. A weak consolidation trend is expected for rebar prices in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with the futures market weak. Supply pressure is evident due to increased production and imports, while demand is relatively flat. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, with the main contract price likely to test the 60,000 yuan level, but excessive bearishness is not recommended [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides strong support. However, the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of weak shock. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [4]. - **Tin**: The macro - sentiment may drive the price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand expectations, a short - selling strategy can be attempted in the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan range, with attention paid to the supply recovery [5]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot market is expected to remain tight in the short term, with prices likely to be strong and volatile. Attention should be paid to the production resumption of enterprises [6]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - factors provide support, and low inventory strengthens price resilience. However, the demand is facing seasonal and trade uncertainties, limiting the upside. The price is expected to range from 19,500 to 21,000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: Short - term prices may be supported by tariff easing, but the long - term supply is in a loose cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock or decline, depending on supply and demand [8]. - **Copper**: The market presents a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the sustainability of the strong fundamentals after May and the tariff negotiation rhythm [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 dropped 1.24% to 63,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade dropped 1.27% to 62,050 yuan/ton. The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 200% to 720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased 6.65% to 73,810 tons, while demand increased 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased 47.25% to 220 tons [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel均价 dropped 0.89% to 125,000 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 7.62% to - 3,910 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased 6.08% to 36,300 tons in April, and imports decreased 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased 3.02% to 27,808 tons [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,200 yuan/ton, and the basis increased 3.70% to 420 yuan/ton [4]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased 0.27% to 944 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and exports increased 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin均价 dropped 0.15% to 265,100 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 35.43% to - 82 dollars/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In March, tin ore imports decreased 4.83% to 8,323 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased 8.75% to 15,280 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.46% to 8,417 tons, and social inventory decreased 2.30% to 9,959 tons [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum均价 dropped 0.20% to 20,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 45.3 yuan/ton to - 1,311 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.91% to 360.60 million tons [6]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.66% to 58.50 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% to 39.3 million tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot均价 dropped 0.53% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 79.77 yuan/ton to - 386 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased 77.37% to 0.02 million tons [8]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 1.99% to 8.38 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 2.07% to 16.1 million tons [8]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper均价 dropped 0.91% to 78,110 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 114.59 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased 15.24% to 30.88 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased 13.08% to 13.92 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 34.00% to 10.81 million tons [11].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with cautious purchasing behavior from major cities, while macroeconomic factors show slight improvement, but uncertainties remain [2]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices are expected to stabilize with 1.4% nickel ore FOB around 40, while domestic nickel iron prices remain weak and stable, with mainstream transactions at 940-950 yuan per nickel [1][2]. - The supply of nickel ore is tight due to seasonal impacts, and the price of chromium ore is supported by a shortage of spot sources [2]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to be 3.4899 million tons in May, a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month but an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [1]. - The production of 300 series stainless steel is expected to be 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1]. Inventory - Social inventory data remains stable, with a slight decrease in warehouse receipts recently. As of May 16, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 561,800 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons week-on-week [1]. - Stainless steel futures inventory is at 158,715 tons, a decrease of 970 tons week-on-week [1]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is slightly improved due to macroeconomic developments, but supply-demand imbalances persist, leading to ongoing pressure on the market [2]. - The overall market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with a reference range of 12,600 to 13,200 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a combination of "strong current situation + weak expectation". The short - term price is likely to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to range between 77,500 - 79,500 yuan/ton. The macro - level factors and the uncertainty of demand in the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the inventory reduction and the easing of tariff sentiment support the price, but the expected weakening of demand and the decline in cost put pressure on the price. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate [3]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price may be supported by the easing of tariff signals. In the future, the price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies, or maintain a high - level oscillation if the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption exceeds expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract price reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The macro - sentiment improvement may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply - side restoration and the pessimistic demand expectation, short - selling can be attempted in the range of 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply - side raw material restoration rhythm [7]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The main contract price is expected to range between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to fluctuate. The raw - material end provides some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. The main contract price is expected to range between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price is expected to show a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is relatively flat, and the inventory is still high. The main contract price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: Most copper prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 78,155 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 11.54% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the import volume in March increased by 15.24%. The domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: Aluminum prices generally increased, with SMM A00 aluminum at 20,010 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The import loss and the spreads between some contracts changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production changed. The开工 rates of some aluminum products also changed, and the inventories at home and abroad decreased [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices decreased slightly, with SMM 0 zinc ingot at 22,650 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The import loss increased, and the spreads between some contracts decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the import volume in March increased by 9.47%. The开工 rates of downstream industries increased [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: Tin prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 tin at 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, the tin ore import decreased, while the refined tin production and import increased. The inventories of some varieties decreased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: Nickel prices decreased, with SMM 1 electrolytic nickel at 124,950 yuan/ton, down 1.79%. The import loss decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the Chinese refined nickel production increased by 6.08%, and the import volume decreased by 68.84%. The inventories at home and abroad changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: Stainless - steel prices were slightly adjusted, with the 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) at 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spreads between some contracts changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the 300 - series stainless - steel production in China increased by 11.37%, and the export volume increased by 70.98%. The inventories changed [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: Lithium carbonate prices were mostly stable, with SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spreads between some contracts changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the lithium carbonate production decreased, while the demand increased. The inventory increased, and the开工 rate increased [14].

| | 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月13日 | | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | | SMM 1#锡 | 262800 | 259600 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 900 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | 长江 1#锡 | 263300 | 260100 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -43.01 | -158.07 | 115.06 | 72.79% | 美元/吨 | | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | 进口盈亏 | -2373.05 | -9430.59 | 7057. ...

【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面震荡上行，现货价格小幅调涨，市场信心回暖，部分贸易商因库存偏低，选择 限量出货或提高报价，市场整体成交活跃度提升。宏观方面，昨日中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布， 美国将暂停24%对华加征关税90天，并取消此前部分关税措施，但仍保留10%的关税，关税谈判结果整 体略超预期对情绪有一定带动。近期矿端价格相对坚挺，铬矿现货源紧缺，叠加铬铁供应过剩得到明显 修复，铬铁价格偏强。菲律宾部分矿山6月资源已在洽谈中，镍矿价格小幅回调，1.4%镍矿FOB为40左 右；印尼5月二期镍矿内贸升水维持+26-27不变，内贸基价上涨0.65-1美元，整体价格小幅上涨，雨季影 响下镍矿供应仍偏紧。镍铁价格弱稳运行，最新成交940元/镍（到厂含税），铁厂暂停报价。国内钢厂 部分检修减产但力度不足，不锈钢排产维持高位，假期后钢厂持续到货，供应过剩格局加剧。需求具有 一定韧性但仍缓慢修复中，制造业订单回暖较慢，采购以刚需补库为主。社会库存周度数据基本持稳， 仓单近期一定减少，库存压力稍缓。总体上，矿端对价格有一定支撑，原料镍铁价格松动，短期供需矛 盾有所扩大，库存压力稍缓。短期宏观改善市场情绪修复，但供需矛盾强化之下基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is bearish with weak fundamentals and high inventory. The price is expected to remain weak, with the main contract ranging from 62,000 to 66,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Tin**: The supply side is expected to recover, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. The price may rebound due to macro - sentiment but is likely to be bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm [4]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expanding, and the inventory pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Zinc**: The supply side may become looser, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported in the short - term, but in the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate, and the aluminum price is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: The copper market shows a "strong reality + weak expectation" pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton pressure level [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 65,250 yuan/ton, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.23%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 10,800% [1]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.99% to 259,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.06% to 124,825 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.35% to 22,770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.05% to 19,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.29% to 78,205 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamentals - **Lithium Carbonate**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, while demand increased by 3.02%. Inventory increased by 6.81% [1]. - **Tin**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [4]. - **Nickel**: In April, China's refined nickel products increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.65%, and exports increased by 70.98% [6]. - **Zinc**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the social inventory increased by 8.18% [9]. - **Aluminum**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [12]. - **Copper**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7.33% [13].

截至2025年5月9日当周，纯碱期货主力合约收于1305元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持287671 手。 机构观点汇总： 宁证期货：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存上升，原片企业操作围绕出货为主。国内纯碱市场延续稳定，纯碱 部分装置按计划停车、减量，供应震荡下行，下游需求表现谨慎，多保持刚需补库，低价成交为主。预 计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑1310一线，建议观望。 建信期货：短期来看，5月检修计划的逐步落地或将引发阶段性供应紧张，叠加光伏需求的韧性支撑， 纯碱期货存在估值修复机会；从中长期视角，产能过剩的基本面未发生根本改变，浮法玻璃需求疲软与 库存高位累积仍是压制价格的核心因素。综合判断，受减产预期驱动，5月纯碱期货价格或迎来短暂小 幅反弹，但缺乏持续上涨动力。预计5月中下旬，随着检修利好逐渐消退、供需矛盾再度凸显，价格将 重新步入下行通道。 消息面回顾： 本周纯碱库存170.13万吨，环比增加2.91万吨，涨幅1.74%。纯碱企业待发订单14+天，呈现增加趋势， 订单接至下旬，有企业到月底。 截至5月8日，华北地区氨碱法生产成本1300元/吨，相较去年10月原盐价格高点的1720元/吨，下降420 ...

【现货】据Mysteel，截至5月8日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格13050元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧价 格13100元/吨，日环比持平；基差515元/吨，日环比上涨5元/吨。 【原料】菲律宾部分矿山6月资源已售，在1.4%FOB43成交；印尼5月一期镍矿内贸升水去至+26- 27，二期内贸基价预计上涨，雨季影响下镍矿供应仍偏紧。印尼政府新的税收政策落地，镍产品特许权 使用费增加了对镍金属的1.5%的税费。镍铁价格松动，铁价格承压下跌，最新主流钢厂在940元/镍（到 厂含税），铁厂暂停报价。 【供应】据Mysteel统计，5月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢预计排产348.99万吨，月环比减少0.4%，同比增加 5.8%；其中300系177.6万吨，环比减少2.6%，同比增加7.5%。4月不锈钢粗钢产量350.25万吨，300系产 量182.43万吨。 【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面维持窄幅波动，现货价格基本持稳，现货采买意愿不强，商家在市场需求偏淡 以及库存压力之下价格调整幅度不大。宏观方面，近期关税问题淡化，市场对美国与各方谈判保持观 望，政策仍有不确定性因素，但情绪基本已经修复。近期矿端价格相对坚挺，铬矿现货源紧 ...