Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index showed stronger performance, and the North Exchange 50 reached a new historical high. The trading volume today was 1.21 trillion [1] - Gold stocks surged collectively, with companies like Laishen Tongling hitting the daily limit and Xiaocheng Technology rising over 10%. The solid-state battery concept also saw a breakout, with stocks like Jinlongyu, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Lingpai Technology hitting the daily limit. Pharmaceutical stocks remained active, with SanSheng Guojian, Shuotai Shen, and Haichen Pharmaceutical also hitting the daily limit [1] Key Highlights Gold Sector - The gold sector saw significant gains, with Laishen Tongling and Western Gold hitting the daily limit, and Xiaocheng Technology and Zijin Mining also experiencing substantial increases. Spot gold prices surpassed $3,300 per ounce for the first time since May 9 [4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices increased, with notable rises in prices from companies like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao Gold [4] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector experienced a strong rally, with Jinlongyu and Guoxuan High-Tech both hitting the daily limit. Jinlongyu announced a procurement order for high-energy density solid-state battery cells, achieving a density of 500Wh/kg [6] - Guoxuan High-Tech announced the completion of a pilot line for solid-state batteries and introduced new products, with over four clients already testing the new quasi-solid-state battery [6][7] - The global solid-state battery shipment is projected to reach 5.3 GWh in 2024, with significant growth expected by 2030, where the market for solid-state electrolytes alone could exceed 210 billion [8] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw a notable increase, with SanSheng Guojian achieving three consecutive daily limits. The company entered a licensing agreement with Pfizer for a dual-specific antibody, showcasing the potential of innovative drugs in the market [9][10] - The domestic innovative drug industry is expected to reach a turning point by 2025, shifting from capital-driven to profit-driven growth, indicating potential investment opportunities [11]

近期，金价大幅震荡，黄金投资热度大幅降温。 券商中国记者翻阅近期券商研报及采访机构发现，黄金仍是各机构当前最为关注的资产之一。不少机构解读 称，短期金价承压受多重因素影响，博弈难度加大，但中长期来看，黄金仍为高性价比的配置资产。更有较为 乐观的机构称，黄金价格有望在阶段性回调后维持长期上涨趋势。 不过，也有一些机构认为，黄金中长期上涨的趋势或许还在，但短期上涨的动能被削弱，提醒投资者避免高倍 杠杆操作。 券商中国记者注意到，在社交平台上，不少投资者在800元/克以上的高位买入，随着近期金价的大幅波动，不 少投资者晒出了自己在高位投资黄金的收益，直呼"天塌了""跌麻了"。不过，也有一些投资者称，将长期投 资，或是"购入成本较低，心里不慌"。 金价坐上"过山车" 近期，金价堪称坐上"过山车"。5月7日以来，伦敦现货黄金价格从约3430美元/盎司高点连续下挫，其中5月14 日单日暴跌约72美元/盎司，单日跌幅2.23%。截至目前，伦敦现货黄金价格在3200美元/盎司附近波动。 值得注意的是，随着近期电商618活动的开启，不少消费者也瞄准金条及黄金饰品，利用大促优惠购置。 沪金期货也持续走弱，5月17日约在750元/ ...

许多人以为中美贸易战已经结束，但实际上这只是一个误解。5月12日，中美双方互相降低关税，虽然似 乎代表着贸易战谈判的突破，但这只是本轮贸易战的第一步，未来特朗普很可能会继续反复施压。 回顾2018年的贸易战，特朗普便已反复了三次，直到那时贸易战才接近尾声。2019年1月，在中美签署了 第一阶段贸易协议时，市场一度乐观，认为贸易战即将结束。然而，仅仅四个月后，特朗普便再次加征了 关税。 为何特朗普会反复加码？他的背后逻辑是如何支撑的？为什么这次谈判仅一个月就迎来破冰，而上次则花 费了近十个月？以下通过数据解读其根本原因。 普的减税政策下，富人群体得到了相当的税收优惠，导致财政收入每年减少约2000亿美元。这使得赤字与 美债利息之间形成了恶性循环，财政赤字的增加直接推动了美债发行量的增加，进而带动美债利息上升。 如今，美国的美债总额已经从20万亿美元增加至36万亿美元，利息也从3000亿美元飙升至近9000亿美元， 远超特朗普1.0时期的水平。 与此相比，2020年疫情期间，美联储通过降息来应对经济衰退，尽管美债总额急剧增加，但由于低利率， 利息却几乎保持不变。特朗普面临的财政困境愈发严重，而美联储的加息政策让债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown a significant decline after a brief rebound, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected inflation data and underlying concerns about the US macroeconomic framework [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The US core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, providing an opportunity for dollar bears to re-enter the market [3]. - There are growing doubts among traders regarding the resilience of the US economy, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year remaining unchanged despite the inflation data [3]. - The 10-year swap spread for the dollar remains elevated, exceeding 50 basis points, indicating market concerns about US Treasury market pressures and fiscal sustainability [3]. Technical Analysis - The dollar index is in a clear downtrend, currently trading around 100.90, with a significant drop from the 110 level [5]. - The MACD indicator has been below the zero line for an extended period, suggesting a weak overall trend despite recent bullish signals [5]. - The Bollinger Bands indicate a wide trading range, with the upper band at 101.92 and the lower band at 98.02, while the price is constrained by the 99.97 midline [5]. Market Sentiment Observation - Market sentiment is characterized by skepticism, with traders increasingly losing confidence in the dollar [7]. - The short-lived rebound in the dollar reflects a cautious attitude among traders, who are quick to capitalize on any upward movement to short the currency [7]. - Overall sentiment remains pessimistic but has not reached extreme panic levels, with short positions on the dollar being the predominant strategy [7]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to oscillate within the 100.14 - 101.80 range, with potential support if US economic data exceeds expectations [8]. - A successful breakout above the 101.17 resistance level could lead to a rally towards 102.22 [8]. - Long-term structural pressures on the dollar are significant, with the trend of de-dollarization potentially impacting reserve composition and cross-border settlements [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to substantial progress in US-China trade talks, leading to a decrease in gold's safe-haven premium [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of May 12, the international spot gold price fell below $3,300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3,208 per ounce [2]. - The Shanghai gold futures main contract closed down 2% at 772 yuan per gram, hitting a near one-month low of 767 yuan per gram during trading [3]. - Gold prices have seen a significant drop, with international gold prices falling below $3,500, $3,400, and $3,300 within two weeks, prompting profit-taking by long traders [4]. Group 2: Gold ETF Trends - The total scale of seven gold ETFs targeting SGE gold 9999 reached approximately 1,522 billion yuan by the end of April, but decreased to 1,450 billion yuan due to falling gold prices [3][4]. - In April, gold ETFs experienced a rapid inflow of funds, with over 10 billion yuan in inflows for four consecutive weeks, totaling 498 billion yuan for the month [4]. - As of May 12, the total scale of these gold ETFs rebounded to 1,490 billion yuan, indicating some funds are entering the market to buy on dips [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by high volatility and divergence, with short-term price pressures expected [6]. - The global economic landscape, including trade tensions and inflation expectations, continues to influence gold prices, with a potential for further price corrections [6][8]. - Central banks globally continue to support gold demand, with a net purchase of 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has sparked intense discussions about future price movements, with predictions ranging from a rise of 2000 RMB per gram to a drop of 500 RMB per gram [1] Group 1: International Gold Market Trends - The long-term trend of international gold prices has been upward, driven by global economic uncertainties that make gold a preferred safe-haven asset [3] - Central banks have been significant players in the gold market, with record-high purchases aimed at enhancing financial stability and responding to global economic conditions [3][5] Group 2: Domestic Gold Price Predictions - Some analysts predict that by early 2026, gold prices could reach 4500 USD per ounce, translating to approximately 2500 RMB per gram in the domestic market [5][9] - Current domestic gold prices hover around 1000 RMB per gram, indicating a substantial gap from the predicted target of 2000 RMB per gram [5][11] Group 3: Market Sensitivity and Influencing Factors - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are highly sensitive to market sentiment and policy changes, which can lead to significant price volatility [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertain U.S. economic policies continue to bolster gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7][9] Group 4: Long-term Price Stability - Predictions suggest that by 2026, domestic gold prices will likely stabilize around 1500 RMB per gram, reflecting moderate adjustments in line with international gold prices [11] - The trend of de-dollarization and sustained central bank demand for gold are expected to support long-term price stability [9][11]

各位朋友好，我是帮主郑重，20年财经老炮儿，专唠中长线投资那些事儿。今儿咱聊聊国际金价这事儿——最近金价又开始往上窜了，不少朋友问我：这波 涨势能稳住不？咱得好好掰扯掰扯。 以色列和美军联手空袭也门荷台达港，胡塞武装直接放话要报复，这火药味浓得能点着美股。再加上俄乌冲突还在拉锯，资金慌不择路往黄金里钻。就像打 仗时老百姓囤粮食，现在全球资本也在囤黄金避险，这就是为啥金价能扛住美元反弹往上走。 再来说说央行的动作。世界黄金协会的数据显示，一季度全球央行净买了244吨黄金，虽说比去年少了点，但这相当于每天买2.7吨，比某些小国全年的产量 还多。中国央行更是连续16个月增持，官方储备都快摸到2300吨了。这些大金主们用真金白银给金价撑腰，这基础能不稳吗？ 不过，帮主得泼盆冷水。美联储这只"鹰"虽然暂时不加息，但6月降息的概率已经降到34%，要是美国经济数据继续走强，降息预期还得往后推。到时候美 元可能更强，金价就得承压。而且黄金ETF最近资金流动有点纠结，4月底有1689亿资金撤离，但5月6号又有4.8亿进来，这说明市场分歧挺大，短期波动少 不了。 先给大伙报个数：5月6号现货黄金冲到了3369美元一盎司，上海金交 ...

整体来看，尽管短期需警惕技术性回调风险，但多重宏观因子仍支撑黄金长期走牛：美元指数中枢下 移、全球滞胀风险升温、央行购金常态化形成三重复合驱动，黄金作为避险资产和财富保值的价值凸 显。 2025年开年以来，国际黄金市场呈现持续走强态势，领跑全球大类资产。虽然4月3日受美国加征关税政 策冲击，黄金价格随全球风险资产同步下挫，但其凭借优异的流动性优势率先实现V型反弹。4月22日 盘中更创下3500美元/盎司历史新高，成功突破关键整数阻力位。 多重因素推动之下，黄金成为资本投资的较优选择，在投资者的争相追逐中表现亮眼。本轮黄金上涨的 核心驱动要素包括：1、信用体系重构：特朗普政府重启关税政策引发美元资产抛售潮，美股、美债及 美元指数同步承压。美联储政策独立性遭受质疑，全球货币体系稳定性降低，黄金作为终极信用对冲工 具的价值凸显。2、地缘政治溢价：俄乌冲突常态化与美伊核谈判僵局形成双重风险敞口，叠加中东局 势持续紧张，避险需求维持高位运行。3、央行储备多元化：Q1全球央行黄金净购入量达224吨，中俄 等新兴经济体增持规模同比激增38%，机构配置需求形成强力支撑。 中期维度来看，后市黄金依然处于上涨通道，首先，全球去美 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have recently declined, with the latest data showing a drop to 782 yuan per gram, down from previous highs [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, easing geopolitical tensions, and technical profit-taking [1] - There is a notable divergence between physical gold and paper gold, with physical gold demand remaining strong as evidenced by the premium on Au99.99 in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1] Group 2 - A price comparison among major banks reveals a maximum price difference of 13 yuan per gram, indicating that larger banks tend to have higher pricing due to brand premium and channel costs [2] - Investors can benefit from purchasing gold through bank apps, which typically offer prices 2-3 yuan lower per gram compared to counter prices [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor U.S. non-farm payroll data and CPI indicators, consider asset allocation with gold comprising 10%-15% of their portfolio, and choose low-fee investment channels like gold ETFs [3] - Caution is advised against blindly shorting gold, ignoring currency fluctuations, and making all-in bets due to the high volatility of gold [3] - Historical data indicates a 67% probability of seasonal declines in gold prices during April-May, but an average increase of 6.8% in the following third quarter [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 特朗普战术上口风放缓，但谈判过程仍然不确定，脱钩仍是主要矛盾，购金力 量仍然较多，长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰持续，各经济体购金动力积 | | | | 极，黄金是成为未来秩序的重要筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【766-800】 | | | | 关税放缓缓解了经济增长忧虑，白银等基本金属情绪有所好转，但长期看细则 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 落地尚需时日。白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附 | | | | 近，操作上区间思路对待，秩序将改变，金银比或短期失效。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普改口降低对华关税，但只是缓兵之计，其不确定性是市场主要风险来源，政 治局会议临近，市场情绪回暖，国内需求韧性显现，库存连续去化，短期多单谨慎 | | 铜 | 反弹 | | | | | 持有，回调背靠下方均线把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【76500，79500】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 锌精矿供应平稳增长，终端需求偏弱，锌 ...