Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the event disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday do not strongly drive a comprehensive market rise. The market may continue its characteristics of structural differentiation and high - level volatility. The logic of price increases due to anti - involution, geopolitical disturbances, and supply - demand mismatches in the AI supply chain will run through the whole year. Attention should be paid to long - position opportunities in细分 fields. However, the Two Sessions will be held on March 4th, and the detailed 15th Five - Year Plan will be finalized, which means that the policy - favorable expectations for technology and growth will be realized. One needs to beware of the decline risk after the growth style's good news is exhausted. With the in - depth and continuous promotion of anti - involution policies, the demand side will stabilize under the tone of fiscal stimulus and economic recovery. The reversal of the supply - demand contradiction may consolidate the performance inflection point of leading industry companies. Focus on the mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement [3][14]. - The bond market has both bullish and bearish factors. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated maturity of reverse repurchases may put some pressure on short - term market liquidity, but the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive attitude, and the liquidity disturbance is probably controllable. The supply pressure of local bonds will decrease after the festival. However, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has fallen below 1.8%, and the resistance to further decline has increased. The purchasing power of institutional allocation funds may decline after the festival, and the market game will intensify before the Two Sessions with a low probability of interest rate cuts. Although the relative value of coupon allocation still exists, the downward space for bond yields of various maturities may be limited [4][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - During the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.13), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.36%, the CSI 500 rose 1.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%. The market had some enthusiasm, but the sentiment was restrained, and the trading volume did not effectively increase, remaining at around 2 trillion. The rebound hotspots were concentrated in the TMT and media industries. Pan - technology stocks were significantly repaired, and there was a concentrated rise in sub - directions such as diesel generators and gas turbines related to the North American computing power power outage. The market was still mainly characterized by a structural trend, and all market mainlines were basically centered around the AI narrative [12]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, the US tariff unconstitutional ruling and the Middle East situation injected new uncertainties into the market. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was unconstitutional. Trump's administration then announced a 10% temporary tariff on imported goods for 150 days starting from February 24th and later proposed to raise it to 15%. The US - Iran negotiation was completed without a substantial agreement, and Trump threatened a "limited - scale" military strike on Iran. The release of the US December PCE inflation data and the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes weakened the market's expectation of an optimistic Fed interest rate cut [13]. - Domestically, the long - holiday consumption data was mixed. The travel traffic reached a new high, highlighting the prosperity of the service - based tourism consumption economy, but there was internal structural differentiation. The overall consumption showed the characteristics of increasing volume but decreasing price, and traditional consumption in areas such as film and real estate was weak, while consumption in areas such as return - home tourism, outbound tourism under visa - free policies, and smart wearable devices was strong. The popularity of humanoid robots and AI applications during the Spring Festival Gala is expected to continuously boost the market's enthusiasm for technology [14]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - In the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.14), the bond market performed well. The yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.62BP to 1.31%, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 2.03BP to 1.79%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.50BP to 2.25%. Driven by the pre - holiday allocation demand, the bond market continued its oscillatory recovery trend [15]. - The US Treasury yield curve flattened last week (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.23). The 1 - year US Treasury yield rose 5BP to 3.50%, the 2 - year yield fell 7BP to 3.43%, and the 10 - year yield fell 19BP to 4.03%. The decline in long - term US Treasury yields was mainly due to the speech of the National Economic Council Chairman suggesting a possible downturn in the employment market and the lower - than - expected CPI growth in January, which reduced inflation expectations. Although the January employment data was better than expected, as the US stock market continued to weaken and market risk appetite decreased, some funds flowed into the bond market, leading to a significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields [17]. - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.41% during the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.13), closing at 1047.08 points, with most sectors rising, especially in consumption and data centers. In the primary market, 4 new public REITs made progress last week: Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT was under feedback, CITIC Construction First Agricultural Food Group Commercial Real Estate REIT and Guotai Haitong Chongbang Commercial Real Estate REIT were accepted, and AVIC Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT was under inquiry [17]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation for each fund. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability within value, balanced, and growth styles, and the style distribution is roughly balanced according to the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [21][22]. 2.2. Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Selection Index**: The value style includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. The index selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [25]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks and switch to more cost - effective stocks when the cost - performance of held stocks decreases. The index selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [25]. - **Growth Stock Fund Selection Index**: The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunities of performance and valuation of high - growth companies and discover "dark - horse" companies in high - potential fields. The index selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [28]. 2.3. Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). Funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 15 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31][32]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, Commerce and Retail, Consumer Services, Textile and Apparel, Food and Beverage, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [32]. - **Technology Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, Communications, Computer, Media). Funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [36]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, Machinery, Power Equipment and New Energy, National Defense and Military Industry, Electronics, Communications). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [41]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, Coal, Non - ferrous Metals, Steel, Building Materials, Basic Chemicals, Banks, Non - bank Finance, Real Estate, Comprehensive Finance). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 5 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [44]. 2.4. Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: The index aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that surpasses money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds among passive index - bond funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [46]. 2.5. Pure - Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while ensuring drawdown control. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [50]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It aims for excess returns relative to the medium - and long - term bond fund index and a stable upward net - value curve. It selects 5 funds each period, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, adjusting the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions [51]. 2.6. Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income plus funds each period, focusing on those with an equity center (total equity position considering convertible - bond and stock holdings) of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. It considers both the risk - return ratio and the holding experience. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income plus funds each period, choosing those with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and selects funds with certain performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income plus funds each period, choosing those with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and selects funds with certain performance elasticity, mainly screening for funds that can obtain stable returns on the bond side without credit downgrading and have strong stock - picking ability and offensive ability on the equity side. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 2.7. Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible - Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible - bond investment in bond market value of no less than 60% in the latest period and no less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. An evaluation system is established from the fund - product, fund - manager, and fund - company dimensions, considering factors such as long - and short - term returns, drawdowns, risk - adjusted returns, and the timing and bond - selection abilities of fund managers. Five funds are selected to form the index [64]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets, with investment targets including Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and US dollar bonds. According to credit ratings, they are usually divided into investment - grade and high - yield products. Six funds with stable returns and good risk control are selected to form the index [67]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets of REITs are mainly mature, high - quality, and stable - operating infrastructure projects with relatively clear cash - flow expectations and relatively limited unit - net - value volatility. Ten funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity are selected to form the index according to the underlying asset types [68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silicon manganese is not clearly rated, and silicon iron is marked with unclear symbols [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, and the market sentiment is sluggish, with the disk under short-term pressure. The supply of iron ore is in excess, but there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand. Coke and coking coal are likely to fluctuate widely, and silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are affected by oversupply and the "anti-involution" concept [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The disk continued to decline today. During the Spring Festival, the demand for building materials basically stagnated, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped to zero, and the inventory accumulation was lower than the same period in previous years. The demand for hot-rolled coil also declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Due to poor steel mill profits and insufficient downstream acceptance capacity, the molten iron production remained at a relatively low level. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The demand expectation is poor, and the market sentiment is sluggish, with the disk under short-term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The disk fell today. The global shipment increased significantly month-on-month, and the domestic port inventory is at a historical high, with heavy concerns about oversupply. The molten iron production increased slightly at a low level before the festival, and it is expected to continue the resumption trend after the festival, with certain restocking needs. Overall, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in iron ore demand, but the pressure of oversupply is relatively greater, and the disk price is still under pressure [3] Coke - The price continued to decline during the day. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season, the steel profit level is average, and the price pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coke disk has a premium, and the coking coal disk has a premium over Mongolian coal. It is likely to fluctuate widely [4] Coking Coal - The price continued to decline during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,333 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the spot auction transactions are inversely proportional to the disk fluctuations. Affected by the relatively volatile disk price, the transaction price mainly decreased slightly, and the terminal inventory increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production end inventory increased slightly. The winter storage demand is coming to an end. Overall, it is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of Ghana's ban on the export of unprocessed manganese ore. The spot manganese ore transaction price increased slightly, and the disk entered a non-arbitrage space, with relatively limited downward space. The manganese ore port inventory may start to slowly increase, and the mine shipment increased month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price concession space may be relatively limited. The demand-side molten iron production remains at a seasonal low level. The weekly silicon manganese production increased slightly, and there is hardly any significant downward driving force. The silicon manganese inventory increased slightly, and the price is affected by oversupply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept [7] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated during the day. The power cost in some production areas has indeed decreased, the semi-coke price remained flat, and the main production areas are still mainly in losses, but the profit in the Inner Mongolia production area has turned positive. The demand-side molten iron production remains at a low level in the off-season. The export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has resilience. The silicon iron supply changed little, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is affected by oversupply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a clear trend of "East rising, West falling" in the global chemical industry, with Chinese companies leveraging cost advantages to capture market share as European chemical firms face high energy and compliance costs [1] - The "PX-PTA-Polyester filament" industry chain is expected to show resilience due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: PX Supply and Demand - PX production growth is limited, with no new capacity added since 2024, leading to a forecasted production increase of only 1% in 2026 [2][3] - The supply of PX is expected to remain tight in 2026, with only one new plant (200,000 tons) coming online in Q4, while demand is projected to grow by 5% due to downstream polyester industry expansions [3][30] Group 3: PTA Market Dynamics - The PTA industry is at a turning point, with a significant slowdown in capacity expansion expected after 2025, leading to a projected production growth of 5% in 2026 [4][42] - The concentration of PTA supply among a few major players (CR6 around 75%) is expected to facilitate better industry coordination and improve profitability [41][43] Group 4: Polyester Filament Outlook - The polyester filament industry is anticipated to benefit from a new round of production cuts, with expectations for a strong seasonal demand in the first half of the year [10][12] - The supply-demand balance for polyester filament is improving, with a projected production growth of 4% in 2026, driven by domestic consumption and favorable external factors [12][30]

2月24日，市场冲高回落，创业板指盘中一度涨超2%，沪指放量收涨0.87%。在此背景下，红利低波 ETF华泰柏瑞（512890）全天上涨0.43%，报收1.172元，换手率1.72%，成交额5.15亿元，居同类ETF首 位。 | 代码 | 名称 现价 涨跌幅 IOPV 溢折率 换手率 成交金额 = 5日涨跌幅 ( | | --- | --- | | 512890 | 红利低波ETF华泰柏 1.172 0.43% 1.1719 0.01% 1.72% 5.15亿 -0.76% | | 563020 | 红利低波ETF易方达 1.196 0.67% 1.1936 0.20% 2.16% 1.35亿 -0.58% | | 159547 | 红利低波ETF华夏 1.211 0.67% 1.2099 0.09% 8.36% 7332.62万 -0.66% | | 159525 红利低波ETF | 1.096 0.55% 1.0942 0.16% 9.17% 4063.64万 -0.63% | | 560150 | 红利低波ETF泰康 1.137 0.62% 1.1368 0.02% 0.48% 403.49万 -0.8 ...

Market Performance - A-shares opened positively on the first trading day after the Lunar New Year, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to 4117.41 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by over 1% [1][2] - The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with over 4,000 stocks rising and 111 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors showed strong performance, with resource stocks experiencing a rebound; leading sectors included energy equipment, oil and gas, and precious metals [1][2] - The hard technology sector also performed well, particularly in optical modules (CPO) and optical communication, while several large model concepts in AI and the film and media sector declined [1][2][3] Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that the market's strong performance was supported by resource stocks, which helped lift the indices; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.36% and the ChiNext Index by 0.99% [2][4] - Geopolitical risks and inflation expectations have led to a surge in resource sectors, while AI applications and media sectors showed significant pullbacks [3] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will continue to trend upwards, particularly with the upcoming "Two Sessions" and a potential increase in policy-driven market activity [4][5] - Two main investment themes are suggested: one focusing on sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profitability, and the other on key areas such as humanoid robots, gaming, and semiconductor industries [6] Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, as trading activity is expected to increase post-holiday [5] - The humanoid robot sector is highlighted as having strong support from both policy expectations and capital inflows, with a favorable trading environment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on the first trading day after the Lunar New Year, with major indices showing positive performance, particularly in resource and hard technology sectors [1][2][4]. Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87% to 4117.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by over 1% and the ChiNext Index gained 0.99%. The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with over 4000 stocks rising and 111 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2][3]. - The market saw a strong performance in defensive sectors, with resource stocks experiencing a rebound. Key sectors such as energy equipment, oil and gas, and precious metals led the gains [1][3][4]. Sector Analysis - The hard technology sector also showed significant strength, particularly in optical modules (CPO) and optical communication concepts, which saw notable increases. In contrast, several large model concepts, including AI applications and the film and media sector, experienced declines [1][4]. - The human-robot concept stocks opened high, reflecting investor interest in this emerging technology [2][3]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the market's overall performance is promising, with resource stocks providing substantial support to the indices. The Shenzhen Component rose by 1.36%, indicating active growth in certain sectors [4]. - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties in global trade policies are seen as short-term disturbances, but they do not alter the mid-term trends. The expectation of a stronger renminbi and upcoming policy influences from the "Two Sessions" are expected to support the market [6][7]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on structural opportunities rather than broad index movements. Key investment themes include sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and construction materials [7][8]. - The robot sector is highlighted as having dual support from policy expectations and capital inflows, with a strong performance anticipated due to ongoing demand for new productive forces and smart manufacturing [8].

化工ETF国泰（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及化学原料、 化学制品等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中国化工行业细分领域的发展状况。指数成分股 覆盖农药、化肥、涂料等多个子行业，旨在捕捉具有成长性和市场竞争力的企业表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天风证券指出，化工行业新增产能进入释放阶段，2026年供需逆转可期。供给端在行业供需调整中权重 加大，"反内卷"的提出提供了对后续行业盈利改善、长期走向更健康发展的预期。短期内可通过控制开 工方式调整供需平衡促进价格回暖、盈利修复；中长期则关注关停低效产能的落实节奏，促进企业技术 升级摆脱同质化竞争。在2026-2027年"反内卷"、"稳增长"等系列政策助推下，经济走出谷底、企业盈 利底部确认概率较高。供需格局重构与产业属性升级共同促使传统化工企业价值重估。 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 春节错期带动 1 月 CPI 涨幅回落，PPI 降幅继续收窄 ——2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2026 年 1 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，上月为上涨 0.8%，2025 年 CPI 累计同比为 0.0%；1 月 PPI 同比下降 1.4%，上月为下降 1.9%，2025 年累计同比下降 2.6%。 基本观点：1 月物价数据走势和去年 12 月相比出现了明显变化，由去年 12 月的 CPI 同比涨幅扩大、 PPI 降幅收窄，转变为 CPI 同比涨幅显著回落、PPI 降幅继续收窄。但总体上看，物价温和回升的势头并 没有发生根本变化。2025 年春节落在 1 月，导致上年同期 CPI 基数大幅抬高，是 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比涨 幅显著回落的主要原因。此外，1 月蔬菜供应增加，价格转向回落，带动食品价格同比由涨转跌，也对整 体 CPI 走势有一定影响。1 月国际金价加快上涨，年内第一批国补资金下达，对家电、汽车等耐用消费品 价格的支撑作用增强，这是当月 CPI 环比保持上升势头的主要原因。1 月 PPI 环比加速上涨，主因反内卷 及需求增加带动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

行业研究丨深度报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 内卷这道题该怎么解？——美国电力的经验 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC：S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 [Table_Summary] 美国 PJM 市场近年来恰好经历反内卷的脱困，其脱困原因不仅仅是 AI 带来的需求修复，供给 改革同样重要，其修改容量市场供给曲线来实现容量电价的数倍上涨，最终实现内反内卷的成 功。我们认为国内可靠容量机制推广具有类似的结果，而且火电走出内卷困境的方式无疑也可 以作为我国众多过剩产业脱困的关键思路：政策发力强制产能退出才能有效、直接解决供求过 剩的矛盾，强制退出的重要手牌中，"低碳"、"环保"往往是最优先考虑的选项，同时核定产能 规则调整所带来的变化对供给侧的影响最为有效，也更容易被大多数市场主体所接受。如果能 够 ...