事件： 桐昆股份发布2025 年半年报：2025 年H1，公司实现营业收入441.58 亿元，同比减少8.41%；实现归母 净利润10.97 亿元，同比增长2.93%，毛利率为6.76%，同比增长0.57 pct。2025 年Q2 单季度，公司实现 营业收入247.38 亿元，同比减少8.73%，环比增加27.38%；实现归母净利润4.86 亿元，同比增加 0.04%，环比减少20.54%；毛利率为6.01%，同比增加0.23 pct，环比减少1.70 pct。 盈利预测和投资评级：随着统一大市场、反内卷等政策落地及"金九银十"旺季需求回升，公司有望凭借 产能规模迎来增长机遇， 预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为22.77/27.50/29.65 亿元， 当前股价对 应2025-2027 年PE 为15.1/12.5/11.6 倍，我们选取新凤鸣、恒力石化、荣盛石化作为可比公司，公司是 全球最大的涤纶长丝生产企业，销量常年稳居行业第一，首次覆盖，给予公司"增持"评级。 风险提示：原材料价格波动、行业竞争加剧、新产能建设投产进度不及预期、汇兑风险、经济大幅下行 等。 涤丝价格跟随成本下滑，整体盈利水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Changjiang Dividend Return Mixed Fund A (013934) reported a profit of 2.1244 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0144 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 2.11% during the period [3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of September 3, the fund's unit net value was 1.034 yuan, with a recent three-month net value growth rate of 4.70%, ranking 573 out of 607 comparable funds [5]. - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 8.01%, ranking 552 out of 607, while the one-year growth rate was 21.28%, ranking 536 out of 604 [5]. - Over the past three years, the fund's net value growth rate was 12.59%, ranking 175 out of 495 [5]. Group 2: Fund Management Insights - The fund manager indicated that the logic of incremental capital is expected to continue, with new structural opportunities represented by "anti-involution" being noteworthy [3]. - The manager emphasized the importance of focusing on high-dividend stocks to contribute excess returns to the fund portfolio [3]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 9.69 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 33.74 times [11]. - The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 0.68 times, compared to the industry average of 2.47 times, and the weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was approximately 0.54 times, against an industry average of 2.07 times [11]. Group 4: Growth Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the fund's weighted average revenue growth rate was -0.07%, and the weighted average net profit growth rate was -0.1% [17]. - The weighted annualized return on equity was 0.07% [17]. Group 5: Fund Composition and Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total of 2,098 holders, with a total of 127 million shares held [33]. - The top ten holdings included China Shenhua, Everbright Bank, Minsheng Bank, China Ping An, Industrial Bank, China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Bank, China Railway Construction, China State Construction, and Kweichow Moutai [37].

化工板块今日（9月5日）开盘猛攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘中迅速拉升，场内 价格涨幅一度达到2.13%，截至发稿，涨1.7%。 展望后市，中原证券表示，随着化工行业反内卷整治的进一步深入，部分子行业产能重复建设、无序过 度竞争的局面有望缓解，迎来景气的阶段性好转。2025年9月份建议关注农药、有机硅、涤纶长丝、煤 化工和轻烃化工行业。 注：细分化工指数近 5 个完整年度收益率分别为 2020 年： 51.68% ； 2021 年： 15.72% ； 2022 年： -26.89% ； 2023 年： -23.17% ； 2024 年： -3.83% 。标的指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调 整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。 中国银河证券表示，供给端，近几年化工行业资本开支及在建产能增速趋于放缓，但预计存量产能及在 建产能仍需时间消化。需求端，下半年随政策刺激效果逐渐显现、终端产业回暖动能逐步转强，内需潜 力有望充分释放。看好下半年化工品的结构性机会及行业估值修复空间。 东方证券指出，随着各方面关于"反内卷"政策的解读逐渐丰富，市场对于政策的理解也不断深入。其认 为"反内卷" ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 5 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 偏空因素堆积，焦煤高位回调 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1180.0 元/吨， ...

东莞证券认为，周四，A股市场震荡走低。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少。当前充裕流动 性仍是行情的主要基底，但短期受阶段性超买压力，技术面存在调整需求。后市可以关注三个方向：一 是市场进入牛市第二阶段，板块轮动较快，关注目前涨幅和估值处于低位、景气低位改善的领域；二是 下半年经济压力显现下的政策加码信号，比如"反内卷"有望从供给端对顺周期板块带来中长期催化。 来源：证券时报网 中原证券认为，周四，A股市场震荡走低。盘中消费、光伏设备、银行以及证券等行业表现较好；航天 航空、通信设备、半导体以及电子化学品等行业表现较弱。当前A股市场正处于内外政策利好交织、流 动性充裕的有利环境。市场资金面呈现明显改善迹象，沪深两市成交金额连续多日突破2万亿元。全球 配置资金净流入A股市场，居民储蓄正在加速向资本市场转移，形成持续的增量资金来源。美联储释放 降息信号，全球流动性预期宽松，美元走弱利于外资回流A股。预计短期市场以稳步震荡为主，仍需密 切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化情况。 财信证券认为，周四，A股市场呈现放量回调格局，三大指数集体收跌。盘面分化较为显著，资金避险 情绪增加，高位股调整明显。科技成长板块多数下 ...

转自：新华财经 上海钢联研究员宋小文表示，8月黑色价格指数延续反弹，主要是得益于扩内需、"反内卷"政策持续发力，市场信心明显增强。 山东隆众信息技术有限公司分析师李彦表示，暑期用能高峰叠加"反内卷"政策实施推进，是8月能源价格回升的主要因素。其中，焦炭价格环比上涨20.1%， 主要是受原料成本上升及市场需求回暖双重因素推动。此外，下游钢厂利润向好，焦炭采购需求增加，也对价格形成支撑。 | 项目 | 中国大宗商品 | 能源价格 | 化工价格 | 黑色价格 | 有色价格 | 矿产价格 | 农产品价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | 指数 | | 单位 | 点 | 点 | 点 | 点 | 点 | 点 | 点 | | 25.08 | 111.7 | 98.7 | 101.9 | 79.7 | 130.4 | 70.5 | 97.1 | | 25.07 | 111.4 | 96. 7 | 102. 9 | 77.9 | 130. 1 | 71.7 | 97.9 | | 月涨跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Group 1: SF Express (顺丰同城) / Logistics - The company achieved revenue of 10.236 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.81%, and a net profit of 137 million yuan, up 120.43% year-on-year [3][4] - The ToB delivery and last-mile business saw significant growth, with a 50%+ increase in same-city delivery orders, driving revenue to 5.779 billion yuan, a 43.11% increase year-on-year [4] - The company’s gross margin was 6.65%, slightly down by 0.23 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 0.44 percentage points to 1.34% [5][6] Group 2: China Everbright Environment (光大环境) / Environmental Governance - The company reported a revenue of 14.304 billion HKD in H1 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.207 billion HKD, down 10% year-on-year [8][9] - Operating service revenue increased by 5% to 9.943 billion HKD, accounting for 70% of total revenue, while construction service revenue fell by 49% [9][10] - The company’s gross margin improved significantly to 44.26%, up 5.53 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin increased to 19.44%, up 0.84 percentage points [10] Group 3: Fenbi (粉笔) / Education - The company reported a revenue of 1.492 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 227 million yuan, down 18.39% year-on-year [11][12] - The AI question-answering system is expected to become a new growth engine, with significant potential for revenue increase [13][14] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.525 billion yuan, 2.618 billion yuan, and 2.793 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [14] Group 4: HuiLiang Technology (汇量科技) / Advertising Marketing - The company achieved total revenue of 938 million USD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and a net profit of 32.28 million USD, up 340% year-on-year [15][17] - The average daily advertising requests increased from over 200 billion in H1 2024 to over 300 billion in H1 2025, indicating strong client engagement [18] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.211 billion USD, 2.747 billion USD, and 3.301 billion USD for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [18] Group 5: Focus Media (分众传媒) / Advertising Marketing - The company reported total revenue of 6.112 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and a net profit of 2.665 billion yuan, up 6.87% year-on-year [20][21] - The gross margin improved to 68.3%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 43.4%, up 2.3 percentage points [21][22] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, with a cash dividend ratio of 25.5% [20] Group 6: Tungsten Industry / Industry Research - The report highlights a tightening supply of tungsten due to regulatory constraints and declining ore grades, with limited new projects expected [27][28] - The demand for tungsten is projected to grow, driven by applications in hard alloys and the semiconductor industry, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project expected to boost demand [28][29] - The strategic importance of tungsten is increasing due to export controls and tariffs, leading to a potential revaluation of tungsten resources [29] Group 7: Great Wall Motors (长城汽车) / Passenger Vehicles - The company reported total revenue of 92.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [31][32] - The company’s Q2 2025 revenue reached 52.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with a significant increase in net profit [32][33] - The company forecasts revenues of 225.3 billion yuan, 278.5 billion yuan, and 312.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [34] Group 8: Dongfang Tower (东方铁塔) / Agricultural Chemical Products - The company achieved revenue of 2.148 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.51%, and a net profit of 493 million yuan, up 79.18% year-on-year [35][36] - The company’s Q2 revenue was 1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.20%, with a significant increase in net profit [37][38] - The company forecasts revenues of 4.926 billion yuan, 5.145 billion yuan, and 5.372 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating [39] Group 9: Yipule (易普力) / Chemical Products - The company reported revenue of 4.713 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a net profit of 409 million yuan, up 16.4% year-on-year [42][43] - The company’s Q2 revenue was 2.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, with a significant increase in net profit [43][44] - The company’s performance is driven by high-quality development and market investment [44]

证券研究报告 2025年09月05日 行业报告 | 行业投资策略 "反内卷"之风未止，铜冶炼之路不竭 作者： 分析师 刘奕町 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523050001 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 金属与材料 "反内卷"之风已起，风仍未止 2 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 3 • 经济增长放缓，"反内卷"之风起。2024年7月30日，政治局会议提出"要强化行业自律，防止'内卷式'恶性竞争"，是中央层面 "反内卷"首次映入视野。观察"反内卷"提出的背景，并对比供给侧改革，两者共同指向"经济增长降速"的宏观环境——GDP 增速放缓，且PPI同比长期处于负值区间；略有不同的是，当下阶段需求终端行业面临更大挑战。 • 铜冶炼行业亏损显著，"反内卷"之风或终将拂过。聚焦中观维度，上一轮供给侧改革围绕钢铁等行业展开，"反内卷"率先点名 光伏和新能源汽车等行业，该类行业具备着"低开工、低利润"的特征。从PPI和行业产能利用率来看，虽然有色金属行业承压不及 汽车等行业显著，但见顶回落趋势明显，仍有忧患。其中，铜冶炼行业亏损程度 ...

进入8月份，国内钢材市场逐步回归基本面，钢价在需求较弱、库存持续累积的背景下小幅震荡运行。 国内钢材综合价格指数止跌回升 据中国钢铁工业协会监测，7月份，中国钢材价格指数（CSPI）平均值为92.79点，环比上升2.69点，升 幅为2.98%；同比下降7.67点，降幅为7.64%。其中，CSPI长材指数平均值为94.82点，环比上升2.90 点、升幅为3.16%，同比下降7.51点、降幅为7.34%；板材指数平均值为91.10点，环比上升2.78点、升幅 为3.14%，同比下降7.83点、降幅为7.91%。 截至7月末，CSPI为95.87点，环比上升6.36点、升幅为7.11%，比上年末下降1.60点、降幅为1.64 %，同 比下降1.13点、降幅为1.16%。 1月—7月份，CSPI平均值为93.58点，同比下降13.28点、降幅为12.43%。 长材、板材价格均止跌回升，长材环比升幅小于板材。 7月末，CSPI长材指数为97.54点，环比上升6.27点、升幅为6.87%；CSPI板材指数为94.50点，环比上升 6.74点、升幅为7.68%。上年同期相比，CSPI长材、板材指数分别下降0.81点、1.0 ...