Energy - Trump claims that an agreement with Iran is very close, with Iran largely agreeing to the terms, leading to an expansion in the day's oil price decline [1] - OPEC members agreed to increase production by only 25,000 barrels per day in April, while the planned increase was 138,000 barrels per day [1] - Russia is in discussions with Egypt regarding a liquefied natural gas terminal project [1] - OPEC's monthly report maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day for 2026, while lowering the supply growth expectations for non-OPEC+ countries [1] - The Russian government is considering extending gasoline export restrictions for two more months until the end of October [1] - Russia is negotiating with Malaysia to increase oil supply [1] - Kazakhstan's oil production in April decreased by 3% compared to March, totaling 1.82 million barrels per day, still above the OPEC+ quota [1] - Citigroup slightly raised its three-month Brent crude oil price target to $60, while maintaining average price expectations of $62 and $63 for the second and third quarters, respectively [1] - An Iranian senior official stated readiness to sign a nuclear agreement with the Trump administration under certain conditions, including the abandonment of high-enriched uranium [1] - Qatar set the July al-shaheen crude oil price at $1.63 per barrel above the Dubai quote [1] Precious Metals and Mining - Insider reports indicate that the UK is considering a new investor visa for key strategic industries [2] - Spot gold experienced a significant drop of $70, nearing $3,120, and is currently reported at $3,142 per ounce [2] - JPMorgan forecasts that the average prices for copper and aluminum will reach $9,225 and $2,325 per ton, respectively, in the second half of the year [2] Agriculture - Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga stated that measures will be taken to ensure rice supply to retailers to stabilize rising rice prices [2] - Japan is seeking to hold a third round of US-Japan trade negotiations next week, considering a package that includes increasing imports of US corn and soybeans, shipbuilding technology cooperation, and modifying import car inspection standards [2]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月14日） 能源： 1. 俄罗斯总统普京：俄罗斯仍向美国供应核燃料。 2. 埃及在西部沙漠和苏伊士湾发现三处石油和天然气，西部沙漠发现的气井预计日产3000万立方英尺天 然气。 3. 高盛：鉴于近期贸易缓和，预计布伦特/WTI原油价格在2025年剩余时间内有大约3到4美元/桶的上行 风险，预测为60/56美元。 4. 高盛：通过对特朗普近900条有关油价的推文进行分析，其倾向于将油价维持在40-50美元/桶区间。 贵金属和矿业： 1. 美银调查：5月黄金高估程度创纪录最高。 其他： 1. 欧盟准备在几周内对乌克兰进口商品征收更高的关税。 2. 英国建议对钢铁进口设定国别配额上限。 3. 刚果民主共和国部长：正在审查为期四个月的钴出口禁令。 4. 哈萨克斯坦4月份黄金和外汇净储备为505.67亿美元，环比增长5.3%。 ...

Energy - Goldman Sachs predicts that natural gas prices will decline continuously by 2026/2027, with the average price of Dutch TTF natural gas expected to be $9.70/$6.55 per million British thermal units [2] - Azerbaijan's Energy Minister reported that Azerbaijan exported 7.8 million tons of oil from January to April [2] - Saudi Aramco executives stated that despite recent market volatility, the fundamentals of the oil market remain robust [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ will halt production increases in August [5] - The Central Bank of Russia expects oil prices to stabilize around $60 per barrel as trade restrictions ease and demand recovers [5] - Officials indicated that Iraq will reduce its crude oil exports to 3.2 million barrels per day in May and June [5] Other - Panama authorities reported that the average number of ships passing through the Panama Canal in April was 34 per day, an increase from 33.7 in March [3] - Commodity trader Louis Dreyfus Company forecasts that the global sugar supply balance will shift from a shortage of 5.2 million tons in 2024/2025 to a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2025/2026 [4] - Citigroup expects gold prices to consolidate in the range of $3,000 to $3,300 in the coming months, lowering the three-month target price to $3,150 [5]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices fell sharply, reaching a daily low of $3207 per ounce, while both WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by over 3% [1] - Saudi Aramco reported an increase in sales volumes for natural gas, refined products, and chemical products in the first quarter [2] - Major oilfield service companies in the U.S. indicated a challenging period ahead due to recent declines in oil prices, leading producers to reduce drilling activities and reconsider budgets [2] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister hinted at increasing corn imports as part of U.S. trade negotiations [2] - The analysis firm APK-Inform revised Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest forecast down by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons [2] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by 2029 [3]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月9日） 7. 马士基首席执行官：美国和胡塞武装之间的协议意味着什么具有很高不确定性；我们预计红海将在 2025年全年保持航运封闭。 1. 美国财政部网站发布关于伊朗的新制裁措施。 2. 哈萨克斯坦：没有计划在5月份削减石油产量。 3. 消息人士：美俄正在探索恢复向欧洲输送天然气的途径。 4. 印尼能源部长：印尼计划将部分燃料进口从新加坡转向美国，作为关税谈判的一部分。 5. 世界黄金协会：金价的上涨速度令人担心它的持久性。 6. 世界黄金协会：上月是自2022年3月以来最强劲的资金流入，加上金价持续飙升，推动全球黄金ETF 的资产管理规模达到3790亿美元，当月增长了10%。 ...

Summary of Commodity Market Outlook and Strategy Analysis Industry Overview - The report focuses on the sugar market, particularly the white sugar sector, and discusses the broader agricultural commodity market including corn and oilseeds. Key Points on Sugar Market - **Market Characteristics**: The white sugar market in 2024 is characterized by a bearish trend, testing production costs across various regions, with prices fluctuating from 20 cents to 16 cents per pound [1][3]. - **Brazil's Production Impact**: Brazil's rainfall in Q1 2025 was poor, affecting sugarcane growth, but April's rainfall returned to historical averages. Sugar production is expected to decrease by 1.8%, with total crushing estimated at 590 million tons and sugar output around 4 million tons [1][6]. - **Global Supply Dynamics**: The global sugar supply is shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed state, with India and Thailand's new sugar seasons expected to yield optimistic results, potentially increasing global sugar availability [1][7][8]. - **Domestic Market Conditions**: China faces a sugar deficit of approximately 4.9 million tons, with over 2 million tons still unresolved. The domestic market is influenced by new syrup policies and the potential recovery of market share by beet sugar [1][10][11]. - **Price Projections**: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 14 to 20 cents per pound, while domestic prices are projected to range from 5,500 to 6,200 yuan, indicating a narrow trading range [1][14][15]. Key Points on Corn and Other Commodities - **Corn Market Outlook**: The corn market is at a cyclical low, with expectations of a supply-demand gap persisting. The market outlook remains positive for Q2 and Q3, despite rising cost pressures as new corn enters the market [1][17][18]. - **Oilseed Market Trends**: The oilseed market is currently unclear, with rising import costs affecting price levels. The demand from Chinese oil mills will significantly influence the market dynamics [1][28][29]. - **Soybean Market Dynamics**: The soybean market is expected to see a decrease in imports, with domestic supply remaining ample. The overall sentiment is cautious, with procurement strategies being conservative due to fluctuating profitability [1][31][34]. Additional Insights - **Syrup Policy Effects**: The introduction of new syrup policies has led to significant changes in the market, impacting the supply chain and price trends. The long-term effects of these policies need further observation [1][11][12]. - **Weather Impact on Production**: Weather conditions, particularly rainfall in key producing regions, will play a crucial role in determining future production levels and market prices [1][6][7]. - **Market Sentiment and Speculation**: The market is currently experiencing speculative trading, with participants closely monitoring policy changes and weather forecasts to gauge future price movements [1][14][19]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities and interdependencies within the agricultural commodity markets, particularly focusing on sugar and corn, while also addressing broader market trends and potential investment strategies.

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月8日） 7. 美国至5月2日当周国内原油产量为2025年1月24日当周以来最低；EIA战略石油储备库存为2022年10 月28日当周以来最高。 1. 央行连续六个月增持黄金，仲量联行：未来还有继续增持空间。 2. 花旗将布伦特原油0-3个月点价从每桶60美元下调至每桶55美元。 3. 欧盟考虑制裁俄罗斯卢克石油迪拜分公司。 4. 消息人士：几内亚启动了取消EGA公司采矿许可证的程序。 5. 埃及供应部长：埃及糖的战略储备足够维持14.1个月。 6. 高盛：将第二季度和第三季度铜价预测上调至每吨9330美元和9150美元，之前的预测分别为8620美元 和8370美元。 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月7日） 能源： 1. 市场消息：俄罗斯考虑在油价下跌时收紧预算规则。 2. 凯投宏观：将布油年底价格预期从70美元下调至60美元。将2026年底的价格预测从每桶60美元下调至 50美元。 其他： 1. 沙特内阁声明：沙特阿拉伯将与美国在采矿和矿产资源领域讨论并签署协议。 2. 乌克兰最高拉达外交政策委员会批准矿产协议草案。 3. 普渡大学：4月份美国农民信心上升。 4. 墨西哥农业部长：与美国同行并达成了对两国都有益的协议。 5. 英媒：英美将于本周达成贸易协定 降低汽车和钢铁关税。 6. 俄罗斯表示，伊朗和其他国家有合法权利发展自己的核能项目。 3. 哈萨克斯坦考虑履行欧佩克+减产义务的选项。 4. 欧盟委员会：委员会将于6月提议，到2027年底逐步停止所有剩余的俄罗斯天然气和液化天然气进 口。 5. EIA下调今明两年美、布两油价格预期；上调今年全球原油需求预期，下调明年预期。 ...

Energy - Petrobras, the Brazilian state oil company, has lowered diesel prices [2] - EU officials announced that the European Commission will propose a legal ban on imports of natural gas and LNG from Russia by the end of 2027 [2] - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price for June Arab Light crude oil to the US at a premium of $3.40 per barrel over the Argus sour crude benchmark, and to Asia at a premium of $1.40 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [2] - Apollo Global Management's economist Torsten Slok indicated that the significant drop in oil prices may lead US producers to cut production and potentially seek layoffs [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish structural outlook on gold, forecasting a price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026 [3] - The Reserve Bank of India reported holding 879.59 tons of gold as part of its foreign exchange reserves as of March 31, with domestic holdings at 511.99 tons [3] - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has initiated a new round of dialogue with rebel groups [3] - The President of Peru announced a curfew in areas where miners were killed, leading to a 30-day suspension of all mining activities in the Pataz region [3] Agriculture - Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR reported that the FOB price for Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% fell by $2 to $247 per ton from late March to early April [4] - Kazakhstan plans to increase sunflower planting area by 9.5% by 2025 to diversify its crops [4] - The Thai Ministry of Commerce aims to achieve a rice export target of 7.5 million tons this year [4] Trade Policy - India proposed to implement reciprocal zero tariffs on a certain quantity of US auto parts and steel [5] - Sources revealed that the US recently rejected Japan's request for a comprehensive exemption from the 10% reciprocal tariffs and tariffs targeting specific countries [5]

6. 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）：截至4月29日当周，WTI原油期货投机性净多头头寸增加2,716 手至116,599手。 7. 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）：截至4月29日当周，NYMEX、ICE市场的天然气期货净多头寸 减少14,904手至185,432手。 金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月5日） 能源： 6. 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）：截至4月29日当周，COMEX黄金期货投机性净多头头寸减少 9,857手至115,865手。 1. 欧佩克+同意6月继续加速增产后，可能在6月批准7月再次加速增产41.1万桶/日。 2. 基于欧佩克+供应增加的假设，高盛下调油价预估。 3. 巴克莱下调今明两年布油价格预期，因欧佩克+加速增产。 4. 贝克休斯油服：美国钻井公司三周来首次削减石油和天然气钻机数量。 5. 6个月布伦特原油价差自2023年12月以来首次转为期货溢价。 1. 全球央行3月净购入黄金17吨。 2. 美银：黄金自1月来首次出现周度资金流出。 3. 中国限制出口后稀土价格暴涨超210%。 4. 欧盟对美钢铁出口骤减100万吨 损失20亿欧元。 5. 印度矿业部： ...