Oil Market - Dubai set the official price for September crude oil at a discount of $10.00 per barrel compared to Oman crude [1] - Kazakhstan's national oil company expects Tengiz oil field's crude oil production to reach 35.7 million tons by 2025 [1] - U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm expressed confidence in oil market pricing [3] - Iraq's oil exports in May amounted to 101.6 million barrels [3] - Saudi Arabia's oil export value in April decreased by 21.2% year-on-year [3] - Qatar's Prime Minister discussed energy supply to Lebanon during the summer with the Lebanese Prime Minister [3] Metals and Mining - World Steel Association reported a 3.8% year-on-year decline in global crude steel production in May, totaling 158.8 million tons [2] - China's crude steel production in May fell by 6.9% year-on-year to 86 million tons [2] - A survey by the International Monetary Fund indicated that 32% of central bank reserve managers plan to increase their gold allocation over the next 12 to 24 months, the highest proportion in at least five years [2]

Report Title - The report title is "GOLDTRUST FUTURES Daily" [1][2] Report Date - The report date is June 25, 2025 [1] Core Views - For soybean oil futures, prices have continued to plummet recently. With sufficient soybean supply, increased oil production, reduced demand, and negative macro - factors, investors can take profit on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels. In the short - term, soybean oil may fluctuate or be strong, but it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase phase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and short with a light position [3][4][21] - For crude oil, after Iran and Israel announced a cease - fire, oil prices dropped significantly, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] - For A - shares, the three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] - For gold, although there is an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term trend is still upward, and investors can buy in batches at low levels [12][13] - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again. There is a risk of over - valuation, and the market should be viewed with a focus on the important support below [15][16] - For glass, the supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19][20] Industry Analysis Soybean Oil - **Supply**: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply has led to an increase in oil mill crushing volume and a significant increase in soybean oil output [4] - **Demand**: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of edible oils enters the off - season, and market demand weakens seasonally. Substitute oils such as palm oil and rapeseed oil also compete for market share, further reducing soybean oil demand [4] - **Macro - factors**: Global economic growth uncertainty has pressured the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and market rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets have led to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a sharp decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4] Crude Oil - **Event Impact**: The cease - fire announcement between Iran and Israel has led to a significant drop in oil prices, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] A - shares - **Market Performance**: The three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] Gold - **Policy Impact**: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year have caused an adjustment in the gold market, but the long - term trend is still upward [13] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again, increasing the risk of over - valuation [16] - **Technical View**: Attention should be paid to the important support below, and the market should be viewed with a volatile mindset [15] Glass - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, resulting in weak demand. It is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [19][20] - **Technical View**: It rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（6月24日） 原油： 7. 伊拉克石油部官员：伊拉克南部油田的石油开采运营未受到人员撤离的影响，平均出口量为332万桶/ 日。 8. 联合石油数据库JODI：沙特4月份原油产量环比增加4.8万桶/日，达到900.5万桶/日，出口量环比增加 41.2万桶/日，至616.6万桶/日。 9. 汇丰：如果原油供应不受干扰，随着欧佩克+恢复产量以及需求下降，预计到第四季度油价将呈现下 行趋势。若考虑到霍尔木兹海峡关闭的较高可能性，预计布油价格将升至每桶80美元以上。预计布伦特 原油第二和第三季度价格为67美元/桶，之后为65美元/桶。 中东局势： 1. 特朗普称以伊停火已生效。 2. 以总理内塔尼亚胡：已实现消除伊朗核武器和弹道导弹威胁的目标。 布伦特原油 1. 特朗普呼吁压低油价，同时鼓励美国能源部加大钻探力度。 2. 俄罗斯六月份的炼油厂产量有望达到今年最高水平。 3. 消息人士：委内瑞拉第二大炼油厂因停电而停产。 4. 市场消息：中东油轮收益跃升至2023年以来的最高水平。 5. 日本经济产业大臣武藤容治：如果霍尔木兹海峡局势扰乱供应，可能动用石油库存。 6. 消息人士 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 23, 2025, the soybean oil price plummeted. Investors are advised to take profits on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels [3][5]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to reach new highs in the long - term, and investors can buy in batches at low levels. Iron ore, glass, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, and specific trading strategies are provided for each [8][12][15][19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Supply: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply increases the oil mill's pressing volume and soybean oil output, intensifying the oversupply situation [4]. - Demand: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of oils and fats enters the off - season, and the demand weakens seasonally. Substitute products such as palm oil and rapeseed oil may seize market share [4]. - Macro and Policy: Uncertain global economic growth pressures the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets lead to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation, the oil market may be volatile or strong. But in the medium - term, it is in the season of production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profits on long positions and short with a light position [22]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: At the beginning of this week, the three major A - share indexes opened low and closed high with a mid -阳线, and the CSI 1000 had the best increase [9]. - Operation: The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. But the long - term trend is still upward [13]. - Operation: Buy in batches at low levels [12]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories are rising again. The over - valuation risk of iron ore is increasing, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [16]. - Operation: Pay attention to the important support below and view it with an oscillatory perspective [15]. Glass - Market Situation: There is no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak, so demand has not increased significantly [20]. - Operation: Wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements. View it with an oscillatory perspective [19].

5. 贝克休斯油服：美国石油和天然气钻机数量降至2021年11月以来的最低水平。美国石油钻机数量降至 2021年10月以来的最低水平。 美元/泰铢 1. 中国央行逆回购操作当日实现净投放682亿元。 2. 泰国商务部长：泰铢兑美元汇率在37至38之间的水平是适当的。 3. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧美1.15对通胀目标而言并非重大阻碍。 金十整理：每日全球外汇、大宗商品市场要闻速递（6月16日） 外汇： 4. 欧洲央行管委内格尔：数据和预测表明欧洲央行的任务已经完成。欧洲央行最好保持灵活性。 大宗商品： 4. 在伊朗最近一轮袭击后，以色列关闭了其最大炼油厂的部分设施，导弹袭击导致以色列特拉维夫输油 管道破裂。 1. 柬埔寨警告禁止泰国农产品入境。 2. 韩国代理财政部长：将采取措施稳定食品价格。将延长油品税收减免至八月底。 3. 欧佩克秘书长：目前在供应或市场动态方面没有出现任何需要采取不必要措施的情况。 ...

Energy - The European Commission proposed the eighteenth round of sanctions against Russia, suggesting to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel [7] - Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry reported that oil exports to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline increased by 48% year-on-year from January to May, reaching 767,000 tons [7] - The EIA projected a decline in U.S. crude oil production next year, previously expected to reach a record high [7] - OPEC Secretary-General stated that global energy demand is expected to grow by 24% by 2050, exceeding 120 million barrels per day [7] Precious Metals and Mining - Zimbabwe's Minister of Mines announced that the country will ban the export of lithium concentrates starting in 2027, which is part of an initiative to encourage foreign mining companies to develop refining operations in Zimbabwe [3] Agriculture - The Euronext September wheat futures fell below €200 per ton due to ample global supply [4] - The Rostov region in Russia, affected by drought, declared a state of emergency [4] Trade Situation - A U.S. appeals court ruled that Trump's tariffs may continue to be in effect during the appeal process [5] - Reports indicate that the U.S. and Mexico are nearing an agreement on steel tariffs [8] - The World Bank warned that a further 10% increase in average U.S. tariffs could lead to a stagnation in global trade by the second half of 2025 [8] - The U.S. Department of Commerce's trade representative mentioned that a framework agreement has been reached between the U.S. and China [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market faces significant pressure from a bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is also obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. - The price of sugar is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the potential increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season and sluggish global demand [7][9]. - The oil market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and factors such as the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the weather in the United States, and the purchase situation in China and India need to be monitored [19][20]. - Corn prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term in the spot market and show strong oscillations in the futures market, affected by factors such as domestic supply, weather, and policy expectations [28]. - The overall supply pressure of the pig market is still evident, and prices are expected to oscillate [34][35]. - The peanut market is weak, with low spot trading volume and expected increase in new - season planting area, and short - selling is recommended for the 10 - contract peanut [38][40]. - Egg prices in the near - month 07 contract are expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48][49]. - Apple futures prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June, supported by low inventory and potential impacts on fruit setting [54][56]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - to - long - term, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 External Market Conditions - CBOT soybean index fell 0.24% to 1043.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to 302 US dollars per short ton [2]. Important Information - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75%. The export inspection volume in the week ending June 5, 2025, was 547,040 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were estimated at 351 million bushels [2]. - As of the week ending June 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, the operating rate was 63.1%, the soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons [2]. Logic Analysis - The international soybean market has a significant bumper - harvest pressure, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 positive spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]. Sugar External Market Conditions - ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.21 (1.27%) to 16.70 cents per pound [6]. Important Information - The FAO sugar price index in May averaged 109.4 points, down 2.9 points (2.6%) month - on - month. The 24/25 sugar - crushing season in Guangdong had a cumulative sugar production of 654,500 tons, and the industrial inventory was 0 tons [7]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected bumper harvest in Brazil and broken through the support level. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the lag in summer stocking demand and the potential increase in processing sugar supply [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: May remain weak in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils External Market Conditions - The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price decreased by 0.48% to 47.41 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price decreased by 0.15% to 3,919 ringgit per ton [14]. Important Information - Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were 351 million bushels, and for the 2025/26 were 298 million bushels. As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [15][17]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory was 812,700 tons [18]. Logic Analysis - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. India has lowered the crude palm oil tax rate, and the US weather is currently good but may turn dry in the future. The domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch External Market Changes - CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 2.1% to 433.5 cents per bushel [26]. Important Information - The CBOT corn futures fell due to good weather in the Midwest corn - producing areas and uncertain export prospects. The 2024/25 corn sales rate in Mato Grosso was 51.05%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the planting rate was 97%, and the emergence rate was 87% [27]. - On June 10, the purchase price at the northern port was 2,270 - 2,290 yuan per ton, and the corn price in the North China production area was strong [27]. Logic Analysis - The US corn planting has accelerated, and the weather is good, so the external - market corn price continues to decline. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while the futures price will show strong oscillations [28]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The external - market 07 - contract corn will oscillate at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 - contract corn. - Arbitrage: Conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread, and widen the spread when the price is low. Hold the long - corn and short - 07 - contract corn position. - Options: Those with spot positions can consider the strategy of selling call options when the price is high [31][32]. Pigs Relevant Information - The pig price showed a rebound trend. As of the week ending June 6, the 7 - kg piglet price was 481 yuan per head, and the 50 - kg sow price was 1,626 yuan per head. On June 9, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.46 yuan per kilogram [34]. Logic Analysis - The supply pressure from the breeding side is still evident, and the overall price pressure is relatively significant due to the relatively high inventory [34]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate mainly. - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [35][36]. Peanuts Important Information - The peanut prices in different regions were reported. The peanut oil price was strong, while the peanut meal sales were slow. As of June 5, 2025, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 144,720 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 40,100 tons [36][37]. Logic Analysis - The peanut spot trading volume is low, the import volume has decreased significantly, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area [38]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell the 10 - contract peanut when the price is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the pk510 - C - 8800 options [40][41][42]. Eggs Important Information - The average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.75 yuan per catty, and that of the main egg - consuming areas was 2.95 yuan per catty. In May, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.334 billion, and the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 46.985 million [44]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national main - area egg - laying hen culling volume was 19.97 million, the national representative - area egg sales volume was 8,856 tons, the production - link inventory was 0.94 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days [45][47]. Trading Logic - The near - month 07 - contract egg price is expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Apples Important Information - As of May 21, 2025, the national main - area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.7085 million tons. The 2024 - 2025 season's 80 first - and second - grade apple storage profit in Qixia was 0.9 yuan per catty [52][53]. Trading Logic - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - contract apple futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June [54][56]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Build long positions in the AP10 contract when the price is low. - Arbitrage: Wait and see first. - Options: Wait and see first [61]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn External Market Impact - ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.39 (0.59%) to 65.97 cents per pound [58]. Important Information - The average temperature and rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas and the rainfall in the Indian cotton - producing areas were reported. The cotton spot trading was divided, and the sales and transaction basis were reported [59][60][62]. Trading Logic - The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short term, the price will oscillate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it may decline, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [64][65][66].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. Market Data Commodities - **Palm oil**: Closed at 8060.00 with a weekly increase of 0.67% [2]. - **Live pigs**: Closed at 13605.00 with a weekly increase of 0.67% [2]. - **Soybean meal**: Closed at 2968.00 with a weekly increase of 0.54% [2]. - **Corn**: Closed at 2336.00 with a weekly increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Copper**: Closed at 77600.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.24% [2]. - **PTA**: Closed at 4700.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.34% [2]. - **Aluminum**: Closed at 20070.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.42% [2]. - **Silver**: Closed at 8218.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.54% [2]. - **Methanol**: Closed at 2208.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.63% [2]. - **Gold**: Closed at 771.80 with a weekly decrease of 1.06% [2]. - **Crude oil**: Closed at 447.90 with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [2]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Closed at 4349.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.23% [2]. - **Glass**: Closed at 982.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.80% [2]. - **PVC**: Closed at 4764.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.85% [2]. - **Iron ore**: Closed at 702.00 with a weekly decrease of 2.23% [2]. - **Rebar**: Closed at 2961.00 with a weekly decrease of 2.79% [2]. - **Coke**: Closed at 1308.00 with a weekly decrease of 5.42% [2]. A-shares - **CSI 500**: Closed at 5671.07 with a weekly increase of 0.32% [2]. - **CSI 300**: Closed at 3840.23 with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [2]. - **SSE 50**: Closed at 2678.70 with a weekly decrease of 1.22% [2]. Overseas Stocks - **Nikkei 225**: Closed at 37965.10 with a weekly increase of 2.17% [2]. - **Nasdaq Composite**: Closed at 19113.77 with a weekly increase of 2.01% [2]. - **S&P 500**: Closed at 5911.69 with a weekly increase of 1.88% [2]. - **FTSE 100**: Closed at 8772.38 with a weekly increase of 0.62% [2]. - **CAC 40**: Closed at 7751.89 with a weekly increase of 0.23% [2]. - **Hang Seng Index**: Closed at 23289.77 with a weekly decrease of 1.32% [2]. Bonds - **5-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.58 with a weekly increase of 2.36% [2]. - **2-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.50 with a weekly increase of 1.35% [2]. - **10-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.70 with a weekly decrease of 1.33% [2]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: Closed at 99.44 with a weekly increase of 0.32% [2]. - **US Dollar central parity rate**: Closed at 7.18 with a weekly decrease of 0.10% [2]. - **EUR/USD**: Closed at 1.13 with a weekly decrease of 0.14% [2]. Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 8 expect a sideways trend [3]. - **Bullish logic**: May PMI data shows significant improvement in corporate export orders; ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 index increased by 600 million this week; The Premier emphasized increasing policy support to expand consumption; Market sentiment for real estate and fiscal policies is expected to further recover [3]. - **Bearish logic**: May construction and service sector PMI is not high; A-share average daily trading volume decreased by 79.4 billion yuan week-on-week; Weak domestic demand affects profit expectations; Trump's false social media posts on China trade increase tariff uncertainty [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [3]. - **Bullish logic**: Setbacks in China-US economic and trade negotiations support the bond market; Manufacturing PMI remains below the boom-bust line; Weak stock market momentum benefits the bond market; Supply-demand disturbances in the bond market weaken after partial issuance [3]. - **Bearish logic**: Industrial enterprise profit growth rebounds; High-speed profit growth in new kinetic energy industries; Banks and insurance companies have limited capacity to absorb bond supply; Market concerns about rising certificate of deposit rates persist [3]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4]. - **Bullish logic**: Saudi Arabia's production increase falls short of expectations; Low oil prices hinder US shale oil supply growth; The Northern Hemisphere enters the peak season for refined oil; Chinese refineries plan to end maintenance in June [4]. - **Bearish logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in July; A large amount of US Treasury bonds will mature in June; Trump reignites China-US trade disputes; Global economic weakness and trade frictions drag down oil demand [4]. Agricultural Products Sector Cotton - **Strategy view**: Among 8 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4]. - **Bullish logic**: Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory is depleting faster; Import window is mostly closed; India's cotton production decreases year-on-year; US cotton sowing progress lags behind [4]. - **Bearish logic**: The domestic textile industry enters the off-season; Textile enterprises' operating rates decline; Finished product inventories increase; Post-Dragon Boat Festival temperature rise benefits new cotton growth; US cotton-growing areas have good weather [4]. Non-ferrous Metals Sector Copper - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5]. - **Bullish logic**: Global copper mine supply is disrupted; LME copper inventory is falling; Domestic social inventory is low; Strong demand from power grid and new energy industries [5]. - **Bearish logic**: US steel tariff hikes raise stagflation expectations; Weak domestic commodity market sentiment; Widening scrap-copper price difference; Poor cable orders [5]. Chemical Sector Soda Ash - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5]. - **Bullish logic**: Maintenance peaks in July and August may ease supply pressure; Strong export performance; Stable light soda ash demand [5]. - **Bearish logic**: Weak glass demand affects the soda ash market; End of the PV installation rush; Low downstream purchasing enthusiasm; High production and inventory levels limit price increases [5]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [6]. - **Bullish logic**: US steel and aluminum tariff hikes increase uncertainty; Central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand support prices; SPDR Gold ETF holdings increase; Long-term logic of gold as a hedge against credit currency risk [6]. - **Bearish logic**: US economic data shows resilience; The Fed's May meeting was hawkish; US stocks showed no significant reaction to tariff hikes; Market sensitivity to Trump's policies may decline [6]. Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 0 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6]. - **Bullish logic**: Steel mills maintain profits; Port iron ore inventory decreases; Steel mills' imported ore inventory is low; Global iron ore shipments decline [6]. - **Bearish logic**: Trump plans to double steel and aluminum import tariffs; Mainstream ore shipments recover; Daily pig iron production decreases; Daily port throughput decreases; Weak domestic real estate market [6].

Economic Data Summary - In the first four months of 2025, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in national high-tech zones reached 10.26 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [3] - The innovation-driven and industrial agglomeration effects continue to be released [3] Industry Development - The Zhongguancun new generation information technology industry has entered the trillion-level industry cluster [5] - The scale of the optical electronics information industry in Wuhan East Lake accounts for 50% of the national total [5] - National high-tech zones have laid out cutting-edge fields such as quantum information, humanoid robots, and next-generation internet, forming initial development advantages in related future industries [5] Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - The renovation of old urban residential areas has accelerated, with plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas nationwide in 2025 [8] - In the first four months of 2025, 5,679 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation, with six provinces and cities having a startup rate exceeding 50% [10] - Central finance will provide subsidies to 20 cities for urban renewal actions, with each city receiving no more than 1.2 billion yuan [13] Commodity Price Index - In May, China's commodity price index rose slightly by 0.3% month-on-month, reaching 110.3 points [16] - Among 50 monitored commodities, 17 saw price increases in May [16] - The non-ferrous price index rose by 0.9%, while the chemical price index rebounded by 0.5% [17] International Air Cargo - Since the beginning of 2025, over 100 new international air cargo routes have been opened, with a focus on Asia and Europe [21][23] - The cargo structure mainly consists of electronic products, auto parts, machinery, and fresh goods [23] - In May alone, 26 new international air cargo routes were opened, with a cumulative total of 101 routes in the first five months of 2025 [24]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（6月4日） 能源： 1. 美伊核谈判细节披露：美提议临时允许伊朗继续铀浓缩活动。 2. 调查显示，欧佩克5月份原油产量增加了20万桶/日，达到2754万桶/日。 4. 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司悄然搁置了在土耳其开发一个新的天然气分销枢纽的计划，放弃通过土耳 其重返欧洲天然气市场的想法。 5. 越南高温天气持续推高用电需求至历史高位，政府指示加快新电厂投运和电网接入工作以保障电力供 应。 其他： 1. 日本首相承诺成立稳定大米供应部长级委员会。 2. 消息人士：美加贸易协议可能在下周G7峰会前达成。 3. 乌克兰农业部长：2025年乌克兰粮食收成可能下降10%至约5100万吨。 3. 哈萨克斯坦国家石油运输商KazTransOil：5月份通过友谊管道向德国供应了23万吨原油。 4. 泰国联合企业集团预计2025年泰国出口增长0.3%-0.5%，此前预期为增长0.3%-0.9%。 ...