Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the lithium market is not experiencing severe oversupply as suggested by various domestic institutions, while the copper market is facing a gradual supply shortage. The analysis indicates that the inventory levels and consumption rates for both metals do not support the claims of significant oversupply in lithium [1][24]. Lithium Market Analysis - In 2024, the global consumption of lithium batteries is projected to be 1545 GWh, requiring approximately 105,000 tons of lithium carbonate. Considering a production yield of 90% and additional factors, the actual consumption is estimated at 114,130 tons [2]. - The total lithium carbonate consumption, including traditional industry usage, is expected to reach 128,000 tons, while the total supply is projected at 136,700 tons, resulting in a surplus of 8,700 tons, which equates to an oversupply ratio of 6.36% [3][4]. Copper Market Analysis - The consumption of cathode copper in 2024 is estimated at 2,733,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.92%. The projected surplus for copper is approximately 46,900 tons, leading to an oversupply ratio of 1.72% [4][5]. Inventory Situation - The article details the inventory levels across different stages of the mining and processing supply chain for both lithium and copper. For copper, the total inventory is around 720,000 to 750,000 tons, which translates to approximately 25.33 days of consumption [9][10]. - In contrast, lithium inventory is estimated at 70,000 to 80,000 tons, corresponding to about 19.14 days of consumption, indicating a tighter supply compared to copper [10]. Smelting and Processing Inventory - In the smelting stage, lithium carbonate inventory is reported at 59,032 tons, equating to 12 days of consumption, while copper smelting inventory stands at approximately 95,700 tons, also representing about 12.76 days of consumption [12][13]. - The processing stage shows lithium inventory at 40,635 tons, which is about 8.3 days of consumption, while copper processing inventory is estimated at 120,000 to 150,000 tons, translating to 18 days of consumption [16][17]. Trade and Other Inventories - Lithium trade and battery inventories are around 37,170 tons, corresponding to 7.6 days of consumption, while copper trade inventories are estimated at 60,000 tons, equating to 8 days of consumption [19][20]. - The article notes a significant decline in lithium warehouse receipts, dropping from approximately 40,000 tons to 15,555 tons, a decrease of 61%, indicating tightening supply conditions [21]. Conclusion - The analysis concludes that lithium inventory levels are consistently lower than those of copper across various stages, challenging the narrative of severe oversupply in the lithium market. The article criticizes the methodology used by institutions to assess inventory levels and suggests that a more nuanced understanding of supply and demand dynamics is necessary [24][25]. - The article also highlights that while lithium experienced a surplus of 5-6% last year, copper had a surplus of only 1-2%, indicating a more favorable outlook for copper moving forward [26][27].

·山东炼厂原油到港延续跌势，但仍高于去年同期 ·消息人士：欧佩克+可能会在8月3日会议上批准在9月再次增产约55万桶/日。 ·美国至7月4日当周API原油库存变化录得712.8万桶，为2025年2月7日当周以来最大增幅。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/09 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/02 | 67.45 | 69.11 | 69.88 | 0.44 | 1.17 | -1.66 | 1.77 | 212.29 | 20.05 | 241.17 | 32.18 | | ...

Automotive Dealer Strategy - SKU Streamlining: The number of configurations for single models has been reduced from 4-5 to 2-3 (e.g., Qin Lev/Seagull 06EV has only 3 versions) to optimize the supply chain, reduce inventory complexity, and enhance product competitiveness [4] - Inventory Break Mechanism: Immediate cessation of shipments when inventory exceeds warning levels to alleviate financial pressure on dealers and enhance operational flexibility [4] - Accelerated Rebate Payments: Shortening the rebate cycle and expediting fund allocation (personally supervised by Wang Chuanfu) to stabilize the pricing system and ensure dealer profitability [4] - Terminal Price Control: Managing discount levels and optimizing promotional policies to prevent vicious competition and ensure sustainable profits [4] International Market Dynamics - Indonesia Market: The first dealer conference was held, signing long-term service commitments, and traditional dance performances were used to strengthen brand cohesion [4] - Americas Market: 170 dealers experienced the Tengshi Z9GT/Yangwang U8, with a focus on expanding into European, North American, and South American markets, alongside tea ceremony activities to promote Chinese culture [4] Other Business Lines - Forklift Business: Targeting an annual sales revenue of 5 billion yuan, with strategies focused on electric forklift technology upgrades and intelligent logistics solutions, aiming to expand into high-end markets in Europe, the United States, and Japan [4]

7月9日，纯碱期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约报1190.00元/吨，涨幅1.10%。 东海期货：受中央财经委会议关于治理内卷的信号发文的影响，玻璃产业预计减产，市场对纯碱也会产 能退出存在担忧，上周的基本面数据来看，供应方面，纯碱开工率下降，纯碱产量周环比减少，由于近 期部分装置检修，如湖北双环、重庆湘渝、陕西兴化等，后续仍有装置有检修计划；需求方面，上周下 游日熔量略增，纯碱企业订单有所微增，但总体下游仍在底部，以刚需生产为主；利润方面，纯碱利润 周环比减少，氨碱法利润转亏，联碱法利润盈亏平衡；长期来看，纯碱供应维持宽松格局不变，高供应 高库存低需求的格局仍存，长期仍以空配为主。 宁证期货：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场暂稳，企业多稳价出货，多数加工厂订单未有 显著改善，操作刚需为主。国内纯碱市场偏弱震荡，供应高位徘徊，库存高位，下游企业采购积极性不 佳，低价按需为主。预计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力1195一线，建议观望。 7月9日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置点火运行。价格调整，轻质报价出厂1200-1280元/吨；湖北双环纯碱装 置波动，价格稳定，轻质出厂价格1200元/吨，重质月底定 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国飞鹤（06186.HK）2025 年中报预告点评 推荐（下调） 业绩低于预期，加大分红回购力度 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报预告。25H1 预计实现收入 91-93 亿，同比下滑 7.9%- 9.9%，预计实现净利润 10-12 亿，同比下滑 36%-47%。公司预计 25Q3 渠道 库存调整到位，全年收入指引低个位数增长。此外，公司年内拟投入不少于 10 亿资金回购股份，用于后续出售或员工股权激励；且预期 25 年分派股息不少 于 20 亿元，去年同期 27.2 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 20,749 | 20,766 | 22,054 | 23,119 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.6% | 0.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,570 | 3,025 | 3,602 | 3,992 | | 同比增速(%) | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-09 海外宏观情绪偏暖，原油强于化⼯ 美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普计划签署行政令，延长"对等关税" 90天暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。对于8月1日之前未能与 美国达成贸易协议的国家，关税税率将恢复到4月宣布的"对等关税" 水平。这一举措提振了商品市场的风险偏好，原油也在其中。同时我们看 到，原油库存累积的区域不平衡，以及柴油裂解价差的强势，也都导致OP EC+增产带来的利空并没有作用于油价。原油震荡的时间将延长。 板块逻辑： 国内化工延续震荡整理态势，市场在寻找新的方向。纯苯期货7月8日 成功上市，纯苯与苯乙烯的对冲套利成为当日的交易重点。苯乙烯一80万 吨新装置即将于8月开车，苯乙烯长达两个月的盈利也导致一些长停的装 置开车；7月8日又有一石化的纯苯装置生产中断，纯苯格局强于苯乙烯。 其他能化品当前大都呈现供需趋弱，库存压力较小，成本端原油的波动就 成为主导。 原油：EIA下调产量预期，红海地缘等事件短暂提振油价 LPG：成本端支撑走弱，基本面宽松格局未改，PG盘面或弱势震荡 沥青：沥青期价下行压 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月9日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79795 | 79885 | -90.00 | -0.11% | 元/肥 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 85 | વેર્ક | -10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79610 | 79805 | -195.00 | -0.24% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -50 | -5 | -45.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79670 | 79780 | -110.00 | -0.14% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -40 | -10 | -30.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1644 | 1507 | +1 ...

棉价上方压力仍然较大，驱动偏弱 2025 年 7 月 9 日 研究员：张伟 邮箱：xnqh_zwei@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F3011397 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0012289 1 一、国际棉花市场分析 （1）全球 2025/26 年度棉花总体供给宽松 美国农业部 6 月供需报告中，2025/26 年度，全球棉花产量、消费量、期初 /期末库存和贸易量均下调。全球棉花产量调减超过 80 万包，中国产量增加， 印度、美国和巴基斯坦产量减少。全球消费量调减超过 30 万包。全球期末库 存减少近 160 万包，全球库存消费比环比下滑 0.2 个百分点，同比下滑 1.1 个 百分点。 综合来看 USDA6 月报告显示，全球供需弱平衡，产销差扩大 11 万吨至-17 万的，但未来 USDA 还将逐渐将调整供需数据。 2 图 1：USDA 全球棉花产销差（万吨） （数据来源：同花顺 Ifind） 图 2：全球棉花库存（万吨） （数据来源：同花顺 Ifind） （2）美国棉花供给宽松，天气状况良好 据美国农业部 USDA 发布的 6 月供需报告，将 2025/26 年度美国棉花产量、 期初库存和期末库 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/09 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 变化 -20 47 0 - ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...