Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The current supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, with steel prices showing small fluctuations [1]. - The trading atmosphere in the glass and soda ash market is cold, and the prices are weakly oscillating [1]. - The market fluctuations of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have weakened, and the alloys are oscillating within a narrow range [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract showed a weakly oscillating trend throughout the day. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the trading volume decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the spot and futures markets was cold [1]. - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract continued to operate weakly, with narrow - range oscillations. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was cold, and the market was mainly for rigid - demand purchases [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - Glass: The fundamentals are still weak. There is an increasing expectation of production suspension in the Shahe area, which supports the market. However, the downstream is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the demand is cold. The current low price allows the market to tolerate higher inventory. In the short term, it will continue to operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash remains loose. With the progress of new production projects, the supply pressure continues to increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream consumption shows a seasonal decline due to more cold repairs. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is still at a high level, and the de - stocking process is slow, with large overall supply - demand contradictions [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures showed a small - scale oscillation, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous period. The spot market was stable. There were new ignition situations in northern factories, with the price of 6517 in the northern market ranging from 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures followed the overall black market and operated weakly. The spot market was weak, and the market was full of a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3]. Supply and Demand Logic - Silicomanganese: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved. There is an expectation of an increase in molten iron production, and the demand for silicomanganese has marginally improved. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The recent South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions of ferrosilicon are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production in steel mills, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of ferrosilicon suppresses the price increase, and continuous attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation and power price policies in production areas [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, and the manufacturing sentiment is strong, providing support on the sentiment side. The copper ore supply remains tight, while the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, with relatively abundant short - term supply. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. [4] - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so there is still strong support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. [7] - Lead: The visible inventory of lead ore has a slight decline but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The waste battery inventory continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. The lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] - Zinc: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory slows down, and the zinc concentrate TC stops falling and stabilizes. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory begins to accumulate. The downstream enterprise operations are mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises rise rapidly. The domestic zinc industry performs weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment disturbances. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there is still a risk of abnormal movements in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] - Tin: After the secondary decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. [14] - Nickel: After the secondary decline of precious metals and risk assets, they stabilize, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. [16] - Lithium Carbonate: In January, the year - on - year growth rates of domestic power and energy - storage battery production and sales were 55.9% and 85.1% respectively, and the lithium demand expectation is strong. After the Spring Festival, the production schedule growth rate of the material side is considerable. At the same time, there are frequent disturbances on the supply side. Although the substantial impact is limited, it is easy to ignite market sentiment under the inventory decline trend. In the future, the game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. [19] - Alumina: There is a strike in a mine in the Boké region of Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there are more capacity overhauls recently, the overall output is still at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [22] - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents generally slows down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively ship, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with a weak willingness to actively restock. Steel mills will have collective production cuts in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. [25] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds. Although the demand is relatively average, under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price still has support. [28] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data was better than expected. Overnight, US stocks rose first and then fell, and copper prices rose. The LME copper 3M closed up 1.06% to $13,239 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,190 yuan per ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,000 to 192,100 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The cancelled warrant ratio increased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 13,000 to 179,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a discount of 50 yuan per ton to the futures, and the market trading remained dull. The Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 60 yuan per ton to the futures, and the holders of goods held firm on the basis price quotes, with dull trading. The Shanghai copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,110 yuan per ton, expanding compared with the previous period. [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME copper 3M is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars per ton. [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation between the US and Iran is still uncertain. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closed up 0.39% to $3,117 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased slightly to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 to 168,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased month - on - month, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rebound, and the spot trading remained dull. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 190 yuan per ton to the futures, and the spot trading volume gradually declined. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 to 486,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,300 - 23,800 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME aluminum 3M is 3,090 - 3,160 US dollars per ton. [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.39% to 16,753 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 124,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME lead 3S rose 8 to $1,978 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan per ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan per ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan per ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 46,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 35 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 15,900 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 50.95 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.6 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 306.79 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 49,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with February 5. [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.57% to 24,634 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME zinc 3S rose 50 to $3,416.5 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 230,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,460 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 50 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 20 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 50 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 11,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 19.55 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 71.21 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 3,392.57 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 128,100 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons compared with February 5. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 11, tin prices fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 394,700 yuan per ton, up 3.32% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient. There were both constraints on the scrap side and high - price waiting - and - seeing by downstream, and the short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to restock before the festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan per ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars per ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 11, nickel prices rose significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,360 yuan per ton, up 4.51% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 50 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the cost side, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $61.42 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $25 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,047.5 yuan per nickel point, up 7.5 yuan per nickel point from the previous day. [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars per ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 139,123 yuan, up 1.99% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 135,500 - 143,600 yuan, with the average price up 2,750 yuan (+2.01%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 140,500 yuan, with the average price up 1.87% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,260 yuan, up 9.41% from the previous closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan per ton. [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 11, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.28% intraday to 2,845 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 457,800 lots, a decrease of 10,400 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 287 yuan per ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304 per ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 65 yuan per ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were reported at 262,700 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $61 per ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $58 per ton. [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan per ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,040 yuan per ton, up 2.18% (+300) on the day, with a unilateral position of 205,500 lots, a decrease of 5,669 lots from the previous trading day.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday procurement is basically over, with most sample production enterprises' inventories and the overall sample trading enterprises' inventories decreasing slightly. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined as some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Many all - steel tire enterprises will enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10th, and semi - steel tire enterprises will mainly shut down from February 13th to February 15th, so the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline. [2] - The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,020 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 160 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 24,037, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,421. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 14,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong and from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 68.8 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.96 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 US dollars. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 612.38 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5 US dollars. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,270 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons per week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 73.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refining atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 78.86%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons. [2] - The weekly ending inventory of manufacturers' cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 550 tons; the weekly ending inventory of traders' cis - butadiene rubber is 6,030 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 750 tons. [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.74 percentage points. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000. [2] - The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.19 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. Some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons (4.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.58 percentage points. [2] - As of February 4th, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons (3.78%). Recently, there were few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply remained high. The pre - holiday procurement was basically over, some traders sold at a discount to recover funds, and new transactions decreased. [2]

Core Viewpoint - BYD's stock price has rebounded, surpassing HKD 100, with a market capitalization of HKD 903.5 billion, following a report from Citigroup that highlights inventory and sales trends in the Chinese market [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 11, BYD's shares rose over 4% during trading, marking a five-day consecutive increase [1]. - The stock price recovery has nearly offset previous declines, bringing it back to the HKD 100 level [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Sales Analysis - Citigroup estimates that BYD's absolute inventory in the domestic market will decrease by 1.2% month-on-month to 387,000 units by the end of January 2026 [1]. - However, retail sales for January are expected to fall short of expectations, with a projected month-on-month decline of 65% [1]. - The relative inventory days, based on January's retail sales, are estimated to rise from 1.2 months at the end of December 2025 to 3.4 months [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The key variables for BYD's future performance will be the new products and pricing strategies set to launch in late February and early March [1]. - Citigroup has assigned a "Buy" rating for BYD, with a target price of HKD 174 [1]. Group 4: International Sales Performance - In January, BYD sold 2,629 new vehicles in Germany, a significant increase of 1,018.7% compared to 235 units sold in the same month last year [1]. - This sales figure is more than double the 1,301 vehicles registered by Tesla in Germany during the same period [1].

Core Viewpoint - BYD's stock price has rebounded over 4% during trading, achieving a five-day consecutive increase and returning to the HKD 100 mark, with a total market capitalization of HKD 903.5 billion [1] Group 1: Inventory and Sales Analysis - Citigroup's report estimates that BYD's absolute inventory in the domestic market will decrease by 1.2% month-on-month to 387,000 units by the end of January 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that retail sales for January may not meet expectations, with an estimated month-on-month decline of 65%, leading to an increase in relative inventory days from 1.2 months at the end of December 2025 to 3.4 months [1] - Key future variables for BYD will be the new products and pricing strategies to be launched in late February and early March [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On February 4, data from the German Federal Motor Transport Authority indicated that BYD sold 2,629 new vehicles in Germany in January, a significant increase from 235 units in the same month last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 1018.7% [1] - This sales figure is more than double that of Tesla, which registered 1,301 vehicles in the same period [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating - Citigroup has assigned a "Buy" rating for BYD, with a target price set at HKD 174 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For methanol, due to the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, with some plants like Xingxing, Shenghong, and Luxi having shutdown or production - reduction plans. Methanol has difficulty moving up or down, and the MTO profit caps the upside. It is currently more suitable to be bearish or sell call options [2]. - For plastics, the futures price fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The supply of standard products has a high growth rate, and the supply of PE in May is expected to have a neutral - to - high growth rate, with the LL supply - demand balance sheet still under pressure [2]. - For PP, the futures price is stable, the basis is weak, and the export volume decreases slightly. The overall inventory is neutral, and the supply - demand balance in May and later is expected to be slightly high, requiring PDH maintenance or continuous exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis is - 330, up 10 compared to the previous period. The overall inventory is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking. In the long term, the overall domestic and foreign real - estate new construction demand is still weak, and the expected pattern is still poor [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From February 4 to February 10, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2250 to 2210, and the price of Northwest discounted to the futures price increased from 2398 to 2443. The import profit and other indicators also showed certain changes [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The Iran conflict continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, and some plants have shutdown or production - reduction plans. The MTO profit caps the upside of methanol prices [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From February 4 to February 10, the Northeast Asia ethylene price decreased from 695 to 690 (with a missing value on February 10). The price of North China LL decreased from 6720 to 6570 (with a missing value on February 10). The import profit increased from 51 to 54 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The futures price fluctuates, the spot price is stable, the basis is weak, and the supply of standard products has a high growth rate. The overall supply of PE in May is expected to have a neutral - to - high growth rate, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet still has pressure [2]. PP - **Price Data**: From February 4 to February 10, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6400. The price of East China PP increased from 6620 to 6535. The export profit decreased from - 41 to - 37 [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The futures price is stable, the basis is weak, the import and export profits are negative, and the export volume decreases slightly. The overall inventory is neutral, and the supply - demand balance in May and later is expected to be slightly high [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From February 4 to February 10, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2550 (with a small change on February 6). The price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 617. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased from 4950 to 4790 [4][5]. - **Industry Situation**: The basis is - 330, up 10 compared to the previous period. The overall inventory is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers, and in the long term, the real - estate new construction demand is weak [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday procurement is almost over, with most sample production enterprises' inventory decreasing and sample trading enterprises' inventory slightly decreasing overall. It's expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, with some enterprises entering the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Multiple all - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises mostly stop work from February 13 to February 15. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline in the short term. [2] - The short - term forecast for the br2604 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50; the position volume is 25,458, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,150. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 13,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,370. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week; in Shanghai, it is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week. [2] - Brent crude oil is 69.04 US dollars/barrel, up 0.99; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, down 4.75. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - WTI crude oil is 64.36 US dollars/barrel, up 0.81; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,475 yuan/ton, up 125. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, up 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.12%, up 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, down 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, down 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, up 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, up 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 33,100 tons, down 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, down 550 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,030 tons, down 750 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.286 million pieces, down 15,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.839 million pieces, up 8,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points week - on - week and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points week - on - week and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year. Some sample enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate was 75.97%, an increase of 3.19 percentage points from the previous month and 8.58 percentage points from the same period last year. [2] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply has remained high. The pre - holiday procurement is almost over. Some traders have carried out promotional activities to recover funds. Downstream procurement has basically ended, with new transactions decreasing and mainly focusing on picking up goods. The inventory of production enterprises decreased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly overall. As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of the coking coal market is expected to tighten significantly as private coal mines in production areas gradually enter the state of shutdown and holiday. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to remain stable in the short term [2][6] - For coking coal, factors such as rising hot metal production and limited supply increase are positive, while factors like slowdown in procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negative [4] - For coke, rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate are positive factors, while factors such as squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - draft of restocking demand are negative [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to tighten, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 570,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises maintain normal production, but the overall market demand is average, and inventory pressure is emerging. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 180,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [6][7] Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [10] - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various port metallurgical cokes from different origins and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising or remaining unchanged [11] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 2.73 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 201,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to last week [21] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 1.095 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 45,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week [25] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 824,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 692,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to last week [29]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...